WR4 (37 - 48) Value Analysis

37) Derrick Mason
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.

Overview: Derrick Mason was a revelation last season, posting 103 catches and going over 1000 yards with 5 TDs. He was an excellent 3rd WR thanks to the inability for the Ravens to stretch the field, catching underneath routes all season long. Now 34 years old with long-time buddy Steve McNair gone, and an inconsistent QB to take over (either Troy Smith or Joe Flacco), you can expect him to continue declining as he was starting to do in 2006. There's no way he catches that many passes a game, especially with targets likely to be spread out to the now healthy Todd Heap, and also expect a rebound from Mark Clayton. You can aim much higher with your 4th WR, and you certainly don't want him starting every week.

38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Bernard Berrian is the new starting WR for the Vikings, new starting RB Adrian Peterson.

Overview: Bernard Berrian performed about as expected with the Bears last season. He would have been a breakthrough candidate on most other teams, but the 2006 2nd half decline of Rex Grossman appropriately killed too much optimism. He came close to 1000 yards and tossed in 5 TDs, making him a solid value for where he was drafted last season. He now moves to another passing offense that projects to be below average, but is powered by a much better running game. Berrian should post some big games with a handful of big plays, but given there's another talented young WR across from him in Sydney Rice, he's not going to be given enough targets to be a weekly option. Don't rely on him each week.

39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.

Overview: Reggie Williams had an odd 2007 season. 629 yards, 10 TDs. Which one doesn't belong? Despite having a reputation of being slow, Williams converted numerous long catches and long touchdowns, showing some of the talent he was supposed to have. However, with Jerry Porter now in town and the run-first philosophy sure to stay, Williams will see even less targets. There's no way he matches his 2007 TD total, his yardage probably won't change much, and that makes him a poor selection.

40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.

Overview: Not many players turn in a career year at age 34, but Bobby Engram did just that last season. With Branch going down and Hackett often injured, Engram became Hasselbeck's top weekly target. With Hackett gone and Branch likely headed for at least the PUP list, plus the Seahawks not upgrading the WR group, look for Engram to post numbers in the same ballpark this season. Think 2007 Derek Mason with lots of catches, solid yardage, few big plays, and a handful of TDs. You won't find too many #1 WRs available this late, and while Engram is hardly a sexy selection with little upside, he should post reliable WR3 numbers all season long.

Update: Engram will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured shoulder. Best case figures to be him returning in week 4, at which point he should resume being borderline WR3 material.

41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Jamarcus Russell, drafted RB Darren McFadden, signed WR Javon Walker.

Overview: Ronald Curry was another popular sleeper last season, and he turned in a couple great weeks, but Oakland's passing attack remained a mess, and Curry suffered as a result. Curry has underrated talent, and he still possesses the ability to be a fantasy starter with WR2 upside. He's now familiar with the WR position at the NFL level after playing QB in college, but Jamarcus Russell's growing pains will limit what Curry is able to do. He's an interesting WR4 with upside, but his consistency will be tied with the maturation Russell shows in 2008.

42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Donte Stallworth is the new starting WR for the Browns.

Overview: Donte Stallworth was somewhat of a bust in New England as Wes Welker stole the season some thought he'd be able to turn in opposite Randy Moss, although those familiar with Stallworth are well aware that he never meets expectations. With him now being drafted as a WR4, it seems suited to his upside. Like I've mentioned with Cleveland's offense before, I'm a bit wary on what we'll see from them this season, but Stallworth is again lined up opposite a stud WR, and Winslow is an elite TE as well. Stallworth won't see enough targets to start every week, nor will he remain healthy for 16 games, but there's backup ability here and he can be used against the right defenses. He's a good fit for Anderosn's downfield tendencies, and he's also a decent value here.

43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Darrell Jackson is the new starting WR for the Broncos.

Overview: Darrell Jackson was predictably a bust in San Francisco after they traded for him to become their #1 WR. Their passing game was atrocious, and Jackson isn't talented enough nor was he ever healthy enough to perservere. He now moves to Denver, and with Brandon Marshall's status in doubt, he could find himself as the #1 WR again, this time on a much better passing offense. Jackson is a complete wild card this season. During the games Marshall misses, if Jackson is healthy, he could surge to WR2 value. On the games Marshall plays, Jackson's upside is probably a WR3, and there's also a chance he could battle injuries again and be completely ineffective. Preseason should shed some light on his situation. He's a low risk as a WR4 with a potentially solid reward, so I view him as a solid value here.

44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: D.J. Hackett is the new starting WR for the Panthers, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.

Overview: D.J. Hackett, another popular sleeper last season, actually lived up to his sleeper status when on the field. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that wasn't nearly often enough, playing in only 6 games due to ankle problems. Hackett now finds himself on a different offense with a run-first philosphy and competition for his starting job from Muhsin Muhammad. Hackett is unquestionably a better WR than Muhammad at this point in their career, but given the Panthers are a power running team, Muhammad's blocking is invaluable. This leads me to believe that Hackett won't be a true starter opposite Steve Smith, and thus he's being overvalued as a potential starter here. This could change, so keep an eye on preseason, but as of now he's not recommended as a potential platoon WR.

45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.

Overview: Sydney Rice flashed some great potential in his rookie season even though his numbers didn't reflect that. He'd have stud potential in a better offense, but he's playing on a run-first offense across from a highly priced WR acquisition in Berrian with an inconsistent QB in Jackson. This adds up to some wasted potential, but the upside exists, and he could be used in the right matchups. Peterson and the running game will command defenses to cram the box, and defenses will fear Berrian's speed, so Rice is set up in a position to make some noise. He's a solid 4th WR.

46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.

Overview: Nate Burleson exploded onto the scene as as 2nd year WR with 1006 yards and 9 TDs opposite Randy Moss in Minnesota, but he's been a bust since then. Horribly inconsistent play has marred his career thus far, but with the lack of quality alternatives in Seattle, Burleson will start again, alongside Bobby Engram. Seattle will still throw the ball plenty, and those targets have to go somewhere, so why not Burleson? He has much to prove, but he's an interesting pick as a starting WR in a solid passing attack this late in the draft. There's a chance he could lose his starting spot after the season gets started, but there's decent value to be had here if he keeps it.

47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Jerry Porter is the new starting WR for the Jaguars.

Overview: Jerry Porter has spent years teasing fantasy owners as the talent that just never shined through. He made a lot of noise in his 3rd season playing the slot receiver role with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in the prolific Oakland passing attack of 2002, and in 2004 and 2005 he flirted with 1000 yard seasons, but he's just never become the receiver than numerous scouts thought he would. Porter turned in a comendable season in Oakland last season despite constantly being in the dog house, and now he's got a fresh start as the #1 WR for the Jaguars. He is playing for a run-first offense that won't pass a whole lot, so he's not going to rack up the receptions like many #1 WRs do, but he's the most talented WR for the Jags. Given their ability to get the ball downfield to the sluggish Reggie Williams, I expect Porter to turn in a WR3 season at worst, assuming he can get over the hamstring surgery that has him currently sidelined. Don't go drafting him as a WR3 and expecting immediately production, but he makes a great WR4 to stash for when he gets acclimated to his new team.

48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

Overview: There was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. Between the injuries that Fitzgerald and Boldin have suffered over the past 3 seasons, Johnson was given a handful of starts each year, was often picked up during those times, but then just never seemed to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Johnson is a big WR at 6'3, 216, so he's not the ideal fit for Martz's offense, although he was signed to start for the 49ers after Martz joined as the offensive coordinator. Martz will fix the 49ers passing attack, but how much remains to be determined. Johnson will benefit for starting for an offense destined to throw the ball a good amount, so there's some potential here. He's a bit risky as he's never started before, and I don't know if he'll end up being what Mike Martz wants, but the upside and WR4 price make him a solid selection.