25) Thomas Jones
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, signed OG Alan Faneca, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: 1 touchdown? SRSLY? This is the only reason I can understand why Thomas Jones is being undervalued by fantasy football nation. He racked up 1119 yards on the ground last year (the 3.6 YPC is concerning), but somehow only managed 1 TD. Enter road grader Alan Faneca and the maturation of both D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, and you have a promising offensive line that should open plenty of holes. Thomas Jones is not a game breaker, but he still runs hard and possesses the ability to make some people miss, plus he's a solid pass catcher as well. Leon Washington is no longer a serious threat to his carries as he's simply just a change-of-pace RB. With Brett Favre in town, TJ will undoubtedly score more this year, possibly in the range of 8 TDs. If you load up on other positions early on, Thomas Jones is an ideal RB2 candidate in round 5, and an excellent RB3.
26) LenDale White
ADP: 54.2 (5th round, 6th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins and TE Alge Crumpler.
Overview: LenWhale White is fat, but at this cost, he's also phat. He was an excellent draft value last season, and this year appears to be similar. In the mold of Eddie George with more pudge, White logged over 300 carries last year and posted 1108 yards and 7 TDs with a rather paltry 3.6 YPC. He played through a knee injury for much of the year as well, so that might allow him to post a better YPC this season as it might help his explosion a bit. The Titans drafted Chris Johnson in the first round, but he's going to replace Chris Henry as the change-of-pace RB, and not White as the primary ball carrier. Much like Thomas Jones, White will allow you to put off the RB2 position until the 5th round, but still grab a guy destined for 300 carries and a handful of TDs. There's little upside here, but the position flexibility he allows you in the previous rounds is well worth the value.
27) Rudi Johnson
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.
Overview: Rudi Johnson sorely disappointed his fantasy owners last season as the big workload he endured from 2004-2006 caught up to him. He posted a great week 2, but then struggled through an injury in a disgusting week 3, and he wasn't the same through week 11. Weeks 12 and 14 he looked like the old Rudi, but then he went down yet again for the season in week 15. Cincinnati is almost certain to use a committee this season, but in all honesty, Kenny Watson is the best RB on their roster, and I expect him to take over the primary RB position at some point during the season. Rudi Johnson was much like Thomas Jones and LenDale White in his prime, 2 RBs he's being selected right after on average, but with a few more TDs thanks to the prolific offense he was running with. With his career on the downside and his job in jeopardy, there's absolutely no reason to select him this season.
28) Fred Taylor
ADP: 57.1 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Simply put, Fred Taylor was amazing last year. In his 31 year old season, he ran for 1202 yards and posted an explosive 5.4 YPC. The offense should remain the same in scheme, and they did add Jerry Porter to help out the passing game, so the running game looks to be effective once again. While Taylor has had great back-to-back seasons, he's now 32 years old, and history just doesn't agree with him doing it again. I have no factual data to back this up, and injuries are general hard to predict, but something just doesn't seem right drafting Fred Taylor this year. Perhaps the offense will take a step back, perhaps Fred Taylor will get hurt, but something is going to prevent Fred Taylor from having a 2008 season that mirrors his performance in 2006 and 2007.
29) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 61.8 (6th round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Stewart is the new starting RB for the Panthers, Jake Delhomme's Tommy John surgery, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: Jonathan Stewart was Carolina's 1st round pick. He fell a bit on draft day due to concerns about his turf toe, but he underwent surgery on the toe to rectify the problem, and he's expected to be ready for camp. He is signed. Fantasy nation appears concerned that a 50/50 timeshare with DeAngelo Williams is on the horizon, but I'm not buying this at all. John Fox is a proponent of the power rushing game, and when Carolina was at their best, they were punishing defenses with Stephen Davis, and DeShaun Foster was a change-of-pace RB. Carolina then spent several years with Foster as the primary ball carrier, and he was nothing short of mediocre. They inexplicably drafted DeAngelo Williams, who while a talented RB, simply does not fit Carolina's preferred power rushing attack. Enter Jonathan Stewart, who is a power rusher with speed and pass catching ability. I fully believe that Stewart was drafted to become Carolina's new primary RB, assuming he doesn't have a setback with his toe once he's cleared to practice with the team. Williams should continue to be a change-of-pace RB who also hands some 3rd down work, but Stewart is already a better blocker, and he won't come off the field on every 3rd down. As I've mentioned several times before, there's always a risk in drafting a first time primary RB, but Williams will ease his workload a bit, and there's a lot to like here.
Update: Stewart continues to miss practices and has already missed 1 preseason game. Williams had a great 1st preseason game, and he is strengthening his case to have a sizeable role in the offense. I have updated Stewart's value to "appropriate" as once he's healthy, he'll certainly have a solid role in the offense as well, but he's no longer a threat to take the majority of the carries in week 1.
30) Matt Forte
ADP: 64.1 (6th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Matt Forte is the new starting RB for the Bears, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Matt Forte was originally drafted to compete with Cedric Benson to be Chicago's starting RB, but with Cedric Benson more worried about getting hammered than working on his deficiencies on the football field, Benson was cut. Matt Forte is now the unquestioned starter in the backfield for Chicago. I know many people will ask about the recent signing of Kevin Jones, but KJ is a strong candidate to start the season on PUP and miss the first 6 games, allowing Forte the ability to show what he can do. Forte is a well-rounded RB who's only knock against him was the weaker competition he faced in college. He's a true 3 down back that should be on the field plenty for the Bears. While the Bears passing attack appears to be a train wreck on paper, they did improve their offensive line, and they will continue to run the ball plenty and play defense. Forte isn't going to light up the stat sheet or score a bunch of TDs, but he'll see the ball plenty and should produce solid RB2 numbers at worst.
31) Selvin Young
ADP: 66.7 (6th round, 7th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Selvin Young is the new starting RB for the Broncos.
Overview: With Travis Henry facing a suspension last season, Selvin Young became a very popular name in fantasy circles. While he never got the true bulk of the carries thanks to Travis Henry never actually getting suspended, he showed that he has the talent to be a very interesting fantasy RB. He bulked up this offseason, adding muscle with the mindset of becoming the primary RB for the Broncos. While Denver's RB position is official open to competition, those of us familiar with the "Shanahanigans" understand that Selvin Young is the heavy favorite. Andre Hall was impressive in his start last season against the Bears, but Young is more talented. Michael Pittman was signed to be a role player, not a starting RB. Finally we have Ryan Torain, who was Young's biggest competition, but an elbow injury has eliminated him from the RB competition. While Young offers incredible upside as the likely starting Broncos RB, and with Torain injured, he's certain to win the job. I find it hard to believe he'll last 16 weeks, but he's a great RB3.
32) Kevin Smith
ADP: 75.2 (7th round, 3rd pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Kevin Smith is the new starting RB for the Lions.
Overview: Kevin Smith was a well known name in college circles last season as he had a chance to break Barry Sanders all-time NCAA rushing record for yards in a season, but he fell just short. Which was good, by the way, as Smith needed far more carries to reach that yardage total than Barry did. Given he played at Central Florida against lesser competition, teams shied away from him on draft day despite his amazing collegiate production. He landed in a perfect spot on the Lions as incumbant starter Kevin Jones was released due to injury concerns, and Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun don't offer stiff competition. Kevin Smith is definitely the favorite to be the Lions starting RB this season, and that gives him plenty of upside from the 7th round. His workload of 450 carries last season is definitely a concern, but Smith is coming as a potential starting RB in the 7th round, and that's worth drafting.
33) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 80.4 (7th round, 8th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Rashard Mendenhall is in a RBBC, drafted WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Mendenhall was essentially a one year wonder at the University of Illinois, and the beneficiary of the best offense the Illini have seen in years. He was the MVP of their spread offense, but his talent showed with his ability to break tackles and get into the open with good speed. He's a complete RB, and he's much more of a power back than Willie Parker. He should be the MJD of the Steelers, not only coming into the game as a change-of-pace RB, but also dominating the goal line carries and likely the 3rd down duties as well. If Parker were to go down, Mendenhall would have huge upside, but Parker's leg injury last year is the only one of his career. Lessening Parker's workload should keep him fresh and less susceptible to injury, so draft Mendenhall for his current role with the ability for more, and not because you think Parker will get injured.34) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 82.3 (7th round, 10th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Released RB DeShaun Foster, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart.
Overview: It's really a shame that Carolina never seemed to give Williams a legit chance to be the primary RB. Perhaps it's because the coaching staff sees something that the rest of us don't, but I certainly see a lot of Brian Westbrook in Williams. The fact is, however, that Williams is not a good fit for the power rushing game that Carolina likes to run. I believe Williams will get maybe 1/3 of the carries, but he won't be in at the goal line, and he'll only play some of the 3rd downs given his deficiencies with blocking. Given we've entered the area of RBs who need something to happen in order to start, he's a decent gamble here, but I wouldn't want him as an RB3.
35) Deuce McAllister
ADP: 87.4 (8th round, 3rd pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Torn ACL, microfracture surgery, traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Deuce McAllister has been a wonderful addition to the Saints franchise over the years, and he's always been both great on the field and to the community. However, his knees are shot. He's suffered 2 torn ACLs, once in 2005, and again in 2007, and also underwent microfracture surgery on the knee he didn't tear the ACL in. Given the emergence of Pierre Thomas as a viable complement to Reggie Bush, there's absolutely no need to rush Deuce back, and there's an outside chance that he might not contribute much at all in 2008.
36) Chester Taylor
ADP: 87.7 (8th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Chester Taylor will give way to Peterson and become the lesser RB in this committee, but he still has plenty of value. He'll see his fair share of time on the field as Minnesota figures to continue running the ball a ton, and if anything were to happen to Peterson, Taylor would become RB1 material as he proved last year when Peterson missed a couple games with a knee injury. Taylor is a must grab for Peterson, but he has stand-alone value on all other teams as well.
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