13) Plaxico Burress
ADP: 36.1 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Traded TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Plaxico Burress was doing his best Randy Moss imitation during the first 6 weeks, scoring in every game. However, somewhere between weeks 1 and 2, he injured his ankle, and the pain from the injury finally caught up with him, limiting his explosion and ability to separate, and he went on a terrible 4 game stretch not topping 47 yards. His last 6 games were mixed bags of great games and duds. Such is life with Burress, who again is sitting out of camp with an ankle injury to start the preseason. If Burress is healthy, he's gonna put up great numbers, but he's terribly inconsistent and unreliable. Losing Jeremy Shockey to help deflect attention won't help, but Steve Smith should emerge as a quality secondary option. Burress is a somewhat interesting high risk/reward WR2, but don't go drafting him as your top WR.
14) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 39.9 (4th round, 4th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Matt Leinart.
Overview: Anquan Boldin again put up his usual numbers last season, but unfortunately those usual numbers include missed games. Boldin is right there with Owens in terms of after-the-catch ability, running through defenders at will and powering his way for extra yards much like a running back. Perhaps his style of play is to blame for the nagging injuries. Expect much of the same from Boldin this season, even with Leinart as the QB. His style suits Leinart's strengths better. Boldin is a much better fit as a WR2 than a WR1 given his propensity to miss games, and those who draft him should grab a quality WR4 to prepare accordingly. There always exists the possibility he'll play the whole season and post big numbers, but don't expect it to happen.
15) Greg Jennings
ADP: 41.7 (4th round, 6th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Greg Jennings was the big play king last season, amassing 920 yards and an incredible 12 TDs on only 53 catches. Now it doesn't take a math wizard to realize that that combination of numbers is simply not sustainable over the course of another season, especially with the change to Aaron Rodgers at QB. Donald Driver is definitely in decline and Greg Jennings would ideally replace him, but I'm not sure he has the skill set to be a true #1 WR. I would expect his catches and yards to increase, but I would also expect a decent decline in TDs as the offense just won't score as much with Favre gone, and Jennings stands the most to lose with the QB switch. There's no way I'm drafting Jennings up this high as this position is probably his absolute best case scenario.
16) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Grr. I was expecting big things from Roy Williams last season, drafting him as my WR1 in all 3 leagues. Week 3 was the turning point of the season. Seriously, how many WRs do you know have put up 204 receiving yards, and then get benched in the same game for screwing up? Fucking Roy Williams did. From there, Roy posted one 100 yard game and only scored (2 TDs) in one game before hurting his knee and missing the last month. Roy Williams has all the talent in the world, but he lacks the mental focus to keep it going consistently. Mike Martz was supposed to bring out the best in him, but it never happened. In all honesty, however, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson aren't the quick, expert route-running WRs that Martz prefers. Not to make excuses, but in retrospect, it wasn't the match made in heaven that we all thought it would be. 2008 represents yet another new start for the Lions offense. They will get back to a more traditional offensive approach, and while on the surface losing Mike Martz's pass-happy offense would appear to hurt Roy Williams, I don't believe it will. All those lost pass attempts and yardage will come at the expense of slot receivers Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. The passing game will focus on it's two best targets, and Roy Williams is the most experienced WR they have. The offensive line and Jon Kitna aren't great by any means, but they're solid enough to move the ball through the air. He's also playing for a new contract, and just like Chad Johnson, the added motivation should help his mental focus. He's a very nice value as a WR2 that still has WR1 upside, and I think there's a career season in him this year.
17) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 50.5 (5th round round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Santonio Holmes was a popular sleeper in 2007, and he produced as expected, almost reaching 1000 yards and tossing in 8 TDs. Unfortunately he also missed a few games again with an injury. Holmes is expected to replace Hines Ward as Big Ben's primary target, and it started to happen last year. With the Steelers likely to throw fewer TDs this season, Holmes will have to turn in a full 16 game season to improve upon last year's totals. He should improve his yardage, but probably not the TDs. There's not much downside to the selection, and there's still some additional upside, but the Steelers' run-first offense limits just how much. Consider Holmes a safe choice as a WR2.
18) Hines Ward
ADP: 56.6 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Hines Ward had a 5 year stretch of either 1000+ yards or 10+ TDs, proving to be one of the more reliable options at the WR position. Ward dealt with numerous knee injuries this past offseason, and at 32 years old, he could be breaking down. He was never the most explosive WR, but any additional loss from his ability to separate would be especially bad news. With Pittsburgh set to run as much as ever with the emergence of Santonio Holmes, and Ward will not longer see the targets needed to produce a WR2 stat line. Ward is still a good football player, but I'd look elsewhere for a WR2. Ward is much better suited as a WR3 this season, but he's not being drafted like one.
19) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 57.2 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Brandon Marshall's 2 game suspension, new starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert.
Overview: Brandon Marshall exploded into the WR elite last season. Thanks to Javon Walker's troublesome knee, he immediately became Cutler's favorite target, and he can make every catch on the football field. He either had 67+ yards, a TD, or both in every game, showing incredible consistency in his first full season as a starter. He's only going to get better, but it might not happen this season. An offseason WWE moment left him with a severe injury to his arm, but he looks 100% recovered from that now. Unfortunately, thanks to several off the field incidents, Marshall will serve a 2 game suspension to start the season. With Marshall set to miss only 2 games and fantasy nation still drafting him in the 5th round, Marshall looks like an excellent value. Future missed time due to a September 24th DUI trial remains a possibility, but given the suspension was handed down with the trial a known fact, I find it hard to believe that Marshall will miss additional time.
20) Marvin Harrison
ADP: 57.2 (5th round round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Marvin Harrison, for the first time in his career, let his fantasy owners down. His career started off with an amazing run of 1100+ yards and 10+ TDs in each of his first 8 seasons. A knee injury suffered in week 3 completely destroyed his season, and worse yet for his fantasy owners, the Colts continued to play it as a week-to-week thing. Between the offseason knee surgery that Marvin was slow to recover from and the shooting at a bar he was associated with, it looked like Harrison was done for good. With the shooting seemingly not linked to Harrison and the fact he's on the practice field already, it's time to start being bullish on Marvin Harrison. He isn't out of the woods yet by any means, but he's starting to look a potential 5th round steal. I advise drafting him at his current price, and he has the potential to be a star WR2 with lower WR1 upside. Just be careful with your other WR positions in preparation for a worst case scenario.
21) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 57.3 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Calvin Johnson was supposed to have the rookie season to end all rookie seasons for WRs. He had the talent, the work ethic, and the offensive system to allow him to accomplish that magical rookie season. Amazingly enough, Calvin Johnson was just another rookie WR. He struggled with mental mistakes, he dropped passes, and then a back injury de-railed his ability to consistently stay on the field. Like I mentioned above with Roy Williams, I don't expect the drop in passing attempts as the Lions move away from Martz's pass-happy offense to negatively impact Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. He's still an elite talent where it's a matter of "when", and not "if" he'll explode. Is this the season? At this price, it's worth investing to find out.
22) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 59.7 (5th round, 12th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Dwayne Bowe did what Calvin Johnson should have done. He was the star rookie WR to steal the show. A late season lull kept his overall numbers modest, but that's to be expected from a rookie playing 16 NFL games for the first time. There's a lot of concern about the Chiefs offensive line and Brodie Croyle, but Croyle has the arm to make the most of Bowe's talents. He can get deep, and he's a terror with the ball in his hands. I liken this situation to Cleveland and Braylon Edwards' last season, right down to the young star WR combined with the stud TE, but unfortunately KC's offensive line ino 2008 doesn't have the capability that Cleveland's did prior to 2007. Look for KC's offense to be incredibly conservative, so KC won't pass enough to see Bowe take off, but there's a strong probability that he'll improve on last season's numbers. With the best case upside of lower WR1, and that'd be very good WR2 material.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.
Overview: Fantasy owners were about ready to swear off Lee Evans for good after starting the season with no more than 17 yards in 4 of the first 5 games. Evans then took off in fine fashion from that point forward, posting solid WR2 numbers over the remainder of the season. He's still incredibly inconsistent, with the ability to disappear on any given week. With the inconsistent JP Losman now firmly on the bench, Trent Edwards will assume the starting duties. Edwards does not possess the same arm that Losman does, but he's a much better decision maker and a more consistent QB. It remains to be seen if Edwards has the arm capable of hitting Evans deep, but he should find him more often and increase his reception total. James Hardy adds a tall WR complement to Evans, and he is immediately the most talented WR to play across from Evans since Eric Moulds in Evans' rookie season. Evans is still a one man show as Hardy learns the NFL game, but he should provide solid WR2 numbers with the chance to explode into the top 10. He's another interesting upside pick as a late WR2 who doesn't have as low of a ceiling as you might think.
24) Donald Driver
ADP: 70.3 (6th round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Donald Driver has been one of the most unheralded good WRs in the NFL for a number of years, and he churned out his 5th 1000 yard season in 2007, but with only 2 TDs. Driver stands to lose the most with the change from Favre to Rodgers. Driver was Favre's preferred target for years, but Rodgers will probably work differently, and there's a lot of talent at the WR position in Green Bay now. With Driver no longer the top dog at the WR position and the ability for Green Bay to spread the targets amongst the talent on the team, look for Driver to continue to decline. The fact he's 33 only weakens his case to bounce back as a WR2 value. I don't see the upside with Driver anymore, and there's an outside possibility that things could get really ugly. I'd avoid him as a WR2.
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