TE Value Analysis

1) Jason Witten
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.

Overview: Jason Witten exploded on the scene last season, posting an incredible 1,145 yards with 7 TDs. The Cowboys fully recognized that Witten was the 2nd best receiver on the team behind Owens and properly utilized him all over the field. While I certainly don't expect Witten to improve or match his incredible yardage total from last season, the Cowboys offense remains in tact, and Witten is a virtual certainty to remain highly productive. With Gates' health a complete uncertainty, there's no safer bet for a top 3 TE production than Witten. If you're into drafting TEs early, Witten is worth grabbing.

2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Antonio Gates' foot surgery, Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, released RB Michael Turner.

Overview: Antonio Gates was his usual dominant self in the first half of 2007, but tailed off in the 2nd half prior to a serious foot injury that he suffered in the playoffs. Surgery ensued, and it's uncertain if Gates will be ready for the season. He's a candidate for the PUP list. As the uncertainty continues on into the preseason, I expect his ADP to drop accordingly, and there's no way you should be paying top value for a player questionable for the start of the regular season. Avoid him at this price, but continue to monitor his ADP trend and the reports of his health once the preseason starts to get going.

3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Kellen Winslow, for the 2nd straight season, well outperformed his ADP. He finished 3rd behind Witten and Gonzalez in TE receiving yardage, and he also posted 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards blew up, helping keep defensive attention off the rising star. I would guess Winslow, out of all the Cleveland skill positions, stands to lose the least with the uncertainty I have about the Cleveland offense. If Anderson struggles and Quinn takes over, the TE will be the safety valve for both guys as this happens. Winslow's big plays might decrease, but he'll continue to rack up yardage and score several TDs, which is enough to keep him towards the top of the TEs. And that's the worst case scenario. Winslow's knee no longer seems to be a short term concern, but he carries a bit more risk than Witten.

4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.

Overview: Tony Gonzalez turned in the best season of his career last year. While he didn't post a career high in catches, yardage, or TDs, he came awfully close in catches and yardage, all the while playing for one of the worst offenses of his career. The emergence of Dwayne Bowe should help open things up over the middle for Gonzalez, but the offense should be just about as bad this season, and expecting Gonzalez to repeat would be foolish. Now it's obvious from his ADP that drafters are indeed not expecting such a repeat, but while he's a safe choice, the upside isn't there, and I believe there are better values to be had later in the draft.

5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: The absence of Marvin Harrison did wonders for Clark's fantasy value as he immediately became Manning's 2nd best receiving option. The 616 yards certainly isn't awe-inpsiring, but the 11 TDs certainly were. Like the math games we've played before on this value analysis, I again ask which value doesn't belong? Complicate that with Harrison's likely return to the offense, and Clark has all the things working against him to be a slight fantasy bust. Clark should still post a solid season, but we're dealing with an injury prone TE who had a fluky year of TDs. There are better values later on.

6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.

Overview: Chris Cooley offered excellent value last season to his fantasy owners. Despite being drafted as a fringe starter, Cooley put together a 4 game scoring streak in weeks 2-6, and then in the 2nd half, he posted higher yardage totals to make up for scoring slightly less frequently. The offense around him now changes as the WCO will be installed by new coach Zorn, and the Skins added talent to the WR position via the draft. Zorn came from Seattle, and Seattle used their TEs consistently in the offense, but they never had a talent like Cooley. Cooley does not possess great speed from the TE position, but he gets open and has solid hands. Cooley is a safe pick who should repeat the consistent average he hovers around every season of 750 yards and 7 TDs. There's no upside here, but there's not much downside either.

7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.

Overview: Shockey posted his usual solid receiving totals last season, but owners always seem to be expecting more. I believe part of the reason he hasn't delivered more is because his style of super-aggressive style of play has lead to nagging injuries, and another reason is because the Giants have focused quite a bit on their running game with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs & Co. since Shockey has been there. Another reason is the inconsistency the Eli Manning has shown in his career. All that is about to change. Shockey's new offense will utilize him more as a receiving threat, and that could cut back on injuries as he won't have to block as often. The Saints are about as pass happy as any offense in the NFL, so he'll also be running more routes based on that fact as well. Finally, Drew Brees is a much better QB than Eli Manning is, which should lead to more consistency. All things are looking up for Shockey, and while I expect his ADP to rise some after the trade, he's recommended as a top 5 selection. Just beware that his injury risk isn't a thing of the past, but I believe the upside is worth it. Just make sure to add a solid TE2 in the likelihood that Shockey misses a couple games.

8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

Overview: Vernon Davis still has the most impressive physical skills of anyone not named Antonio Gates, but he's yet to be used properly. He's been the vicitim of poor passing attacks his first two seasons, but that will change with Martz in town. The problem is that Martz has never used a TE as a primary receiving option before, and considering his offense is based off of quick WRs running good routes, Davis certainly doesn't qualify under either of those classifications. Davis is more of the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson athlete type that Martz never fully understood how to use in Detroit. His skills and the improved passing attack offer upside, but the questionable fit into the new scheme offers downside. I think he's a very interesting risk in the middle rounds of the draft.

9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.

Overview: Todd Heap had a disasterous season in 2007, playing in only 6 games while battling various leg injuries. He comes back 100% in 2008, and with an offensive coordinator who knows how to use the TE. The only thing holding Heap back will be the play of his QB as both Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are unproven youngsters. Smith would probably be preferred. Mason and Clayton offer two solid WRs to keep attention away. The offensive situation and his nagging injuries offer some downside, but at this price, he's worth investing in.

10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.

Overview: Miller didn't rack up much yardage, but he posted 7 TDs as another beneficiary of the inability for Pittsburgh to run the ball near the goal line. Like I talked about before with Pittsburgh's offense, they will likely throw for less TDs, but I expect Miller to maintain his TD pace. He's a great red zone target, and if Pittsburgh can re-establish the running game near the goal line, expect a couple playaction TD catches from Miller as well. I also expect Miller to continue being utilized a bit more in the passing game, and he should increase his yardage total somewhat as a result. Given the expected improvement, and the fact there's not a lot of downside, I think Miller is a good value this season.

11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Despite the prolific Patriots passing attack, Watson's yardage fell off a cliff. He had a monster game against Dallas, posting 107 yards and 2 TDs, but he never topped 49 yards in any other game. He did score 6 TDs, but only one after the week 5 explosion. Watson remains supremely talented, but unfortunately that talent doesn't include his hands. Thanks to his inconsistent targets, he can't afford to drop passes, but he does anyways. After 4 years, sudden improvement seems unlikely. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a weekly option.

12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Crumpler is the new starting TE for the Titans. Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins.

Overview: Alge Crumpler, Michael Vick's favorite target, missed him more than anyone else on the team. He was very consistent from 2004 - 2006, posting 775+ yards with an average of 6 TDs. Last season a diminshed role in the offense combined with a knee injury that spilled over into the regular season sapped him of his ability to produce. He now moves to another offense anchored around the running game and a running QB, so he's a perfect fit. I expect a bounce back season from Crumpler, and he's providing a nice value as the last starting TE taken off the board.

Sleepers:

13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's pending suspension.

Overview: Tony Scheffler missed the first 4 games of the 2007 season with an injury, but when he returned, he showed off his talent. He was only held under 30 yards twice, and he posted 5 TDs. Scheffler dealt with another foot injury this offseason, but he apperars 100%. Scheffler has a great chemistry with Jay Cutler, and while having Brandon Marshall would keep attention off of him, I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant the defense's attention anyways. He should be Cutler's secondary target with Marshall there, and he could share primary target duties when Marshall misses time. He's a great value this late.

14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Nothing.

Overview: Owen Daniels, along with Andre Johnson, were prime beneficiaries of the greatly improved Houston Texans passing attack. Between Schaub and Rosenfels, there were plenty of targets for Daniels. The only downside were the 3 TDs, but that was a fluky result for a TE that posted over 700 yards. Simply put, there's absolutely no reason Daniels should be taken as a TE2. He's way undervalued and should prove to be the best bargain of all TEs this season.

16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Olsen should be the Bears' new starting TE, new starting RB Matt Forte, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.

Overview: Greg Olsen flashed some big time potential in his first season, but like all rookie TEs, he had a lot to learn and was inconsistent. He had a 4 game stretch of 4+ catches and 48+ yards with 2 TDs, but was very inconsistent after that. The Chicago Bears offense remains a train wreck on paper, but Olsen should be one of the most targeted receivers on the team. His blocking needs work, so he won't be on the field as much as most TEs, so his TE2 price tag is right. He's a great guy to gamble on in case he breaks through this season.