1) Randy Moss
ADP: 7.9 (1st round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Randy Moss provided insane value as a WR2 last year, killing the competition to easily finish as the best WR in fantasy football last season. Accordingly, fantasy nation is taking Randy Moss in the first round. Given the offense around him remains almost identical, there's little reason to think there will be a major dropoff in production, but drafting veterans coming off career years is generally a bad idea as they're normally overpriced. Moss is no different. Moss should still finish in the top 5 WRs, but he's not going to be this much better than the other WRs, and there's no reason to take him over RBs like Barber, Gore, and Portis.
2) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 13.6 (2nd round, 1st pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Reggie Wayne stepped right into the #1 WR role when Marvin Harrison went down, and he posted elite WR numbers, exactly as everyone expected. With Marvin Harrison returning to the fold and seemingly healthy, Wayne doesn't have quite as much upside, but he's still going to post top 5 numbers barring injury. Given he's being selected after the elite RBs are off the board, he's going to provide very solid value, and his yearly consistency is definitely worth the price.
3)Terrell Owens
ADP: 14.2 (2nd round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Tony Romo has helped revived Owens career. Finally playing with a QB whom he doesn't feel the need to insult, Owens was beastly last season, posting big plays and putting together a 7 game scoring streak. An ankle injury really slowed him down towards the end of the season, but it's not a recurring problem. Owens is 34 years old, and he should start slowing down at this age, but he's in incredible shape and will likely see a lesser decline than most WRs. Jason Witten has emerged as a stud receiving TE to keep defenses from focusing on Owens. Given the Cowboys are set up to continue winning, and the fact they didn't add a true secondary target to take targets away from Owens, he should have little reason to act out. He's no longer playing for a contract, and one cannot ignore his past, so understand that there still is risk with selecting him this high.
4) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Braylon Edwards exploded in his third year. Finally paired with a QB willing to air it deep to him, he turned in a season full of big plays and TDs. After week 1, he either had 60+ yards, a TD, or both in every game, producing the consistency that people crave from their WR1. There's no denying Edwards' talent, but I'm very cautiously approaching the 2008 season from the Cleveland Browns. They have the pieces in place to be explosive once again, but Edwards ability to reproduce last season's production relies heavily on Derek Anderson's job security. If Anderson falters, Edwards will too, and a switch to Quinn will hurt Edwards' ability for big plays as he's not as aggressive of a QB. Edwards has more questions about his surrounding cast than the other top WRs, so I'd pass him over for a different option and let someone else take the risk for this price tag.
5) T.J. Houshmandzadeh
ADP: 22.7 (2nd round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry.
Overview: TJ turned in a career year in 2008. With Chris Henry out the first 8 games, Palmer relied heavily on TJ to pick up the slack, and he dominated in the first half. After week 10, however, TJ only scored twice more, and topped 66 yards twice. TJ is not as good as his first half, and he's not as bad as his second half. I don't believe he'll reach last year's fantasy totals as he's not going to score 12 TDs again, but he'll remain plenty productive. I don't like TJ being drafted as a WR1 this season, and I definitely feel he's overvalued sitting in the top 5.
6) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 22.9 (2nd round, 11th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Matt Leinart.
Overview: Larry Fitzgerald exploded once again last season, and it was completely tied to the fact that Leinart went down and Warner took over as the starter. It didn't hurt that Boldin missed some time as well, giving Fitzgerald all the targets he could handle in his absence. Unfortunately, Leinart returns as the starting QB this season. I hope the collarbone injury showed the party-instead-of-learn-the-playbook Leinart that he needs to take his job seriously and fully commit to becoming an NFL QB, but we won't know until the season starts if that will actually be the case. Leinart doesn't have the same field-stretching ability in his arm that Warner possesses, but with Edge slowing down and no heir apparent, Arizona will have to pass to score. Call me conservative, but I want to see Fitzgerald post a top season with Leinart at the helm before I go taking him as my WR1.
Edit: With Warner back behind center, I have no problem taking Fitzgerald as my WR1.
7) Andre Johnson
ADP: 23.9 (2nd round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: So THAT's what Andre Johnson can do with a non-turd QB. With David Carr gone, Andre Johnson exploded out of the gate with back-to-back 120+ yard games and 3 TDs before an awkward tackle injured his knee and knocked him out til week 11. Once he returned, he picked back up where he left off with...120 yards and a TD. The beautiful thing about his 2007 season is even when Matt Schaub went down, AJ was right at home in Houston's solid offensive system, and he didn't miss a beat with Sage Rosenfels. Given Schaub's injury woes last season, it was smart for Houston to ultimately hang onto Rosenfels despite attempting to trade him. AJ is set up for a monster 2008 season.
8) Steve Smith
ADP: 24.8 (3rd round, 1st pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Returning starting QB Jake Delhomme.
Overview: Fucking David Carr. He's always ruining something. Steve Smith exploded out of the gates with 2 massive games. Jake Delhomme's elbow gave out in week 3, and Smith's season turned into trash. He had a random explosion in week 6 with Vinny Testaverde, but it took til week 16 with Matt Moore at QB for him to match that production again. With David Carr at the helm, Smith was hopeless. Delhomme has returned from Tommy John surgery, and Steve Smith stated he's throwing the ball harder than before. Now while that's not uncommon with pitchers who undergo the surgery, it's equally as likely that Smith's perception was screwed up after who was throwing the ball to him the majority of 2007. With Delhomme set to start and finally a capable backup in Matt Moore behind him, Steve Smith looks primed to rebound in 2008.
9) Marques Colston
ADP: 27.1 (3rd round, 3rd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Marques Colston was as advertised when he broke out in 2006, following it up with an even better 2007. He struggled out of the gates along with the rest of the Saints offense, but once the offense as a whole adjusted, Colston went back to his dominating 2006 ways. With Jeremy Shockey now in the fold, Colston finally has an established receiving target to deflect attention from him, which should lead to more big plays. The Saints offense will be pass-first once again, and Colston is well positioned to continue as a top fantasy WR once again in 2008.
10) Chad Johnson
ADP: 29.1 (3rd round, 5th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.
Overview: Chad Johnson did what he usually does in 2007, posting a career high in yardage with his average of 8 TDs. While he made plenty of noise about holding out for a new contract this offseason, he did what almost all players do when it's time to get paid...show up to practice and get ready for the season. Highly motivated to cash in on what will likely be his final huge contract, I expect the best of Chad Johnson to show up in 2008. The extra motivation should help him overcome the mental lapses that prevent him from being truly special. Expect a big year.
Update: With the news that CJ has a torn labrum and will try to put off surgery and play through the pain, he's gone from under valued to over valued. Don't draft him.
11) Torry Holt
ADP: 33.4 (3rd round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Isaac Bruce.
Overview: Torry Holt had an impressive 2007. His 2006 and 2007 numbers are eerily similar, which are the worst yardage totals since his rookie season. The backstory behind that was the constant injuries the Rams' offense endured last season, and despite all of that, Holt was still plenty productive. Holt is starting to become an injury risk with various ailments slowing him down the past 3 seasons, but he always manages to find a way to put up his usual numbers. He should see more passes this season with the lack of quality options around him, but his surrounding offense is roughly average, so expecting much of an increase over his past two seasons would be unwise. Holt is a safe WR1/WR2 choice, but you're not getting any upside with the selection.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 36.0 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Wes Welker a WR1? Despite being a slot receiver on the field, Welker was undeniably Brady's secondary option, and he led the Patriots in receptions. With 1175 yards and 8 TDs, he certainly was close to WR1 production. Like I stated with both Brady and Moss, there's no way the Patriots replicate last season's passing attack, and that will mean less yards and less TDs for Welker. If he was barely a WR1 last season in what will likely be his career season, why are people drafting him to repeat and hopefully improve? No value in this selection whatsoever.
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