WR3 (25 - 36) Value Analysis

25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.

Overview: Joey Galloway has defied his age for the past 3 years, posting 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in his age 35-37 seasons. With Michael Clayton unable to capture the magic of his rookie season and the only other option the roster fellow geriatric Ike Hilliard, the Bucs continue to ride Galloway like a #1 receiver. Expect that to end this season. At 38 years old, I believe this is the season that marks the end of the road. The Bucs offense isn't going to light the NFL on fire, and Joey Galloway's upside is probably limited to not much higher up than where he's currently being drafted. With his age, the downside is tremendous, making Galloway a poor selection as a top WR3.

26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.

Overview: Chris Chambers was finally released from the prison known as Miami last season, and he joined the Chargers to become their #1 WR, and #2 receiving target after Antonio Gates. After somewhat of a slow start, he assimilated himself well into the offense, and posted solid WR3 numbers before exploding with a great run in the playoffs. He's SD's most talented WR, and with Gates' toe rehab likely affecting his availability for the start of the season, he'll be SD's top receiving target for as long as Gates is out. Complicating matters is the fact that Phillip Rivers is returning from ACL surgery, and like I mentioned with LT, QBs generally struggle in the first half after such a surgery. If Gates does miss time, I think that will counter-balance Rivers' assumed struggles by Chambers being used more often. I think Chambers is a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and not much downside. He's a good pick here.

27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Bobby Petrino is no longer the head coach, QB competition.

Overview: Roddy White exploded last season under the downfield passing attack run by new head coach Bobby Petrino, posting career highs of 1202 yards and 6 TDs. With the new, conservative offense that Mike Mularkey runs taking over, I'm not as high on Roddy White this year. He was a potentially undervalued breakthrough candidate again this season in the right circumstances, but the Falcons offense is going through an overhaul into a run-first scheme, and it's very likely that rookie Matt Ryan will see significant playing time at some point. Given the conservative nature of the passing offense and the potential of a rookie QB playing a decent number of games, I don't see a lot of upside here for White, but he should still see the ball plenty as he's easily the best option in the passing game, and that should allow for him to match his ADP.

28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.

Overview: Vincent Jackson was a popular sleeper last year, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he didn't wake up til the playoffs. Jackson posted a couple nice games, but for the most part they were clunkers, and adding Chris Chambers to an offense that was run-oriented made things even worse. However, once the playoffs rolled around, the Chargers were throwing the ball all over the field, and Jackson responded with 3 nice games in a row. Much like Chambers, Jackson will benefit from any time that Gates misses. He'll move up to the #2 passing option with Gates sidelined, and he'll see both increased targets and production. He seems primed for a solid WR3 compaign without a whole lot of downside, so he's also a solid selection here. I definitely prefer Chambers, and if Gates returns, Jackson will have a hard time finding enough targets to be reliable on a weekly basis.

29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.

Overview: Coles' ability to play hurt was overmatched last season as he missed 5 games, played ineffectively hurt in others, and only had a few good games throughout the season. For the first time since pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, he's going to have a very good QB throwing him the ball. This will increase his consistency, his yardage output, and his TD output. Coles did have a very good chemsitry with Pennington, and you can't completely disregard that, but the acquisition of Favre improves the overall offense, which should trump that fact. Coles now becomes a very solid value as a WR3, and the only reason I don't have him as under valued is because of injury concerns.

30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.

Overview: Kevin Curtis made his Philadelphia debut last season, and I believe the word "erratic" was the best way to describe him. He had 3 100 yard games with at least 1 TD, one other game with 78 yards and a TD, but he didn't score in the other 12 games, nor did he cross 100 yards. You can blame part of that on learning a new offense and part of it on the overall struggles of the Philly passing game. With McNabb turning in a healthy offseason, Curtis does have some additional upside via what should go down as a more consistent season. He's a reliable route runner with deep speed and solid hands, and he should be the 1A to Reggie Brown's 1B. If Reggie Brown finally steps up this season, he could see less targets, but his ability to make big plays should overcome that somewhat, as will the willingness for Philadelphia to throw the ball a lot. I think he's a solid value here with a little bit of upside and a little bit of downside.

31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.

Overview: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive 2007 season given the struggles of the Jets offense. He put up 169 more yards more than his previous season despite poor QB play, although the 2 TDs were a concern. Cotchery, despite the non-household name, is in the same mold at TO, Boldin, and rookie Dwayne Bowe in that he's very hard to bring down and will run over defensive backs at will. He also has the speed to beat the defense, which means he can shine in both the short and deep passing game. With the acquisition of Brett Favre, I bet that Cotchery passes Coles as the #1 option for the Jets passing game this season. I think Cotchery leaps into the WR2 territory this year, and for a WR3 price, that's good value.

32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Anthony Gonzalez showed well in the Indy offense last season with Harrison out. He was originally going to be the slot receiver and hopefully fill Stokley's role, but Harrison injury forced him outside, and he put up a solid rookie season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes, but that's to be expected from most rookie WRs. Indy did well here as Harrison's understudy. For his 2008 value, it's simple. If Marvin Harrison is healthy, Gonzalez is a poor WR3 as he'd be behind Wayne, Harrison, and Clark for targets. He'd have too many clunkers to rely upon on a weekly basis. This is looking more and more like the case, so I'd pass on Gonzalez at this price.

33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.

Overview: Reggie Brown was a popular pick last season after an impressive 2nd season, but McNabb's recovery from ACL surgery was overlooked. Once McNabb looked himself in the 2nd half, Brown looked much better, but Kevin Curtis cut into Brown's production. With McNabb healthy again, I expect Brown to improve upon his solid 2006 production of 816 yards, and the 8 TDs he scored that year are within reach as well, especially after scoring 4 times in the 2nd half of 2007. Brown doesn't have much downside as a WR3, but he certainly has upside in a solid offense with a good target across from him. I don't see him having the ability to be a true stud based on his spread-the-wealth offense, but I think he jumps into the WR2 realm this season, making him a good value.

34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.

Overview: Santana Moss was a pretty large bust in 2007, battling leg injuries for much of the year which cut into his production. He closed strong, however, giving owners some hope for 2008. Gone is the Gibbs' offense, and it's being replaced with the WCO that Jim Zorn brings over from Seattle. Moss will be the primary target for this new offense, and if you saw what Darrell Jackson was able to accomplish as the #1 target in Seattle's offense, Moss arguably has borderline WR1 upside. The only factor is how fast Jason Cambell grasps another new offensive scheme, although with as many scheme changes he faced in college, this should be old news to him. Moss is a solid fit into the WCO, and with Randle El moving to the slot, Cooley at TE, and talented rookie Malcolm Kelly across from him, defense won't be able to key on him so much. I think WR3 is his downside this season, and I like him to step it up from this position, making him a good value.

35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Javon Walker is the new starting WR for the Raiders.

Overview: Javon Walker was a massive bust in 2007. After a miraculous 2006 season with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in his new Broncos digs, much the same was expected in 2007, but his knee didn't cooperate. He showed up in week 2 with a big 108 yard performance, but disappeared for the rest of the season after that. His robbing in Vegas was possibly by a disgruntled fantasy owner, but doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward. The health of his knee, however, is. He's had multiple surgeries, and despite the incredible 2007 season, he's seemingly had problems with it ever since the initial ACL injury in 2006. Throw in the fact that Jamarcus Russell will be starting all season long, and I really find it hard to draft Walker as an every week WR3 starter. Keep an eye on his progress. If he looks good in preseason, it's time to re-visit his value. As of now, I wouldn't recommend him.

36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.

Overview: Patrick Crayton was a bit of a disappointment in 2007. He dropped passes despite the ridiculous hands he showed off in 2006, and he was insanely inconsistent. With Terry Glenn gone, the 2nd WR gig is all his, and I do expect improvement in 2008. Crayton should be more ready to be the starting WR, and being opposite of T.O. has big coverage advantages, especially with Witten the threat he is over the middle. That being said, however, he is the third option on the offense, and the Cowboys aren't going to pass like crazy. An improvement would put him into the reliable WR3 catagory, and I expect him to do that. There isn't much additional upside, however, but I believe last year would be his absolute downside as well.