So yeah, the Cincinnati Bengals RB situation is a complete mess right now. Here's how I break down the candidates...very literally in the case of Rudi Johnson.
Rudi Johnson - After bursting onto the scene in 2003 when Corey Dillon dealt with various injuries, Rudi Johnson was one of FF's most productive RBs between 2004 and 2006, going over 1400 total yards with 12 TDs each season. 3 straight seasons of 350+ touches caught up to Rudi last year as he was hampered by a hamstring injury that bothered from from week 3 onwards. That hamstring injury has continued to be a problem this preseason, and now there's rumors of him being traded. Given what little he's shown since the start of last season, it's hard to imagine a team giving up anything for him. Don't bother drafting him as he won't be on the Bengals final roster.
Kenny Watson - Watson had 4 games with 19+ carries last year, totaling 417 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs in those 4 games. Like Rudi, Watson isn't a flashy runner, but he's powerful and drives through tacklers. Unlike Rudi, Watson is very proficient in the passing game as a legit threat coming out of the backfield. Watson is worth drafting in the last couple rounds as a RB5. You might wonder why Watson isn't handed the starting gig, which brings me to....
Chris Perry - I watched Chris Perry run at Michigan, and the only thing that has ever held him back at any level has been his injuries. He's a talented, well-rounded back who combines speed, power, and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy for once, which has only happened once for a 14 game stretch in 2005, he will be a definite fantasy asset this year. He has the perfect skill set for what the Bengals like to do on offense. I would imagine the Bengals will be careful with his workload given his durability concerns, but he should be plenty productive. There's no way you can count on him staying healthy, but he's a very intriguing RB4 selection and should start in week 1.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
My 2 Drafts
First of all, I'd like to apologize for the problems I've had ranking the top 3-4 RBs after Tomlinson and Peterson. There's a lot of good and bad to all of them. After I considered everything, I ended up selecting Marion Barber #3 overall (non-PPR). There's a chance he may wear down as the primary ball carrier, but he did have 248 touches last season. The Cowboys will monitor his workload and not go overboard, plus he's in such a great position to succeed. The Cowboys line is great, and their passing game is among the elite. Barber is great near the goal line and is also an accomplished contributor in the passing game. They Cowboys will use Felix Jones, but Barber is a special talent. My original stance was avoiding first time RBs, but really only Addai had a huge downgrade in performance in the 2nd half of last season. Lynch and Peterson both suffered minor injuries, but their performance didn't suffer that much, if at all, when they returned.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
Bengals WR Chad Johnson Reportedly Has Torn Labrum
Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Johnson reportedly has a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he plans to avoid surgery and play through the injury.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Kurt Warner Reportedly Named Arizona's Starting QB
Kurt Warner has reportedly been named the new Arizona Cardinals starting QB, replacing Matt Leinart.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
Friday, August 22, 2008
The #3 Pick
It's been a long hard road for my brain as I sorted through the candidates for the #3 pick. Here's my thoughts on the top 3 after much consideration:
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.
Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.
It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.
Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.
It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Rams RB Steven Jackson Ends Holdout
St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson has ended his holdout.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Eagles WR Kevin Curtis Undergoes Hernia Surgery
Philadelphia Eagles' WR Kevin Curtis will undergo hernia surgery.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Preseason Week 2 Player Notes
QB:
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Ravens RB Willis McGahee Undergoes Knee Surgery
Baltimore Ravens RB Willis McGahee has undergone arthroscopic knee surgery to clean out his left knee.
The key word here is "left". This is the same knee that McGahee destroyed in the Orange Bowl during his junior season with Miami, and it kept him out of the 2003 season after being drafted by Buffalo.
Fantasy Impact: The initial timetable for McGahee's surgery is 2-4 weeks, so odds are he won't be ready for week 1. Given this is the same knee from his disastrous knee injury in college, it's of much greater concern than it normally is. I originally had McGahee as appropriately valued at his early 2nd round ADP, but I'm not recommending him in the 2nd round at all anymore. There's a chance he only misses a game or two, but the downside of this is pretty bad. Ray Rice becomes very attractive for all owners, and truth be told, Rice is a better fit in Cam Cameron's offensive scheme that McGahee. Rice is both a powerful RB along with being proficient at catching the ball.
The key word here is "left". This is the same knee that McGahee destroyed in the Orange Bowl during his junior season with Miami, and it kept him out of the 2003 season after being drafted by Buffalo.
Fantasy Impact: The initial timetable for McGahee's surgery is 2-4 weeks, so odds are he won't be ready for week 1. Given this is the same knee from his disastrous knee injury in college, it's of much greater concern than it normally is. I originally had McGahee as appropriately valued at his early 2nd round ADP, but I'm not recommending him in the 2nd round at all anymore. There's a chance he only misses a game or two, but the downside of this is pretty bad. Ray Rice becomes very attractive for all owners, and truth be told, Rice is a better fit in Cam Cameron's offensive scheme that McGahee. Rice is both a powerful RB along with being proficient at catching the ball.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Seahawks WR Bobby Engram Fractures Shoulder
Seattle Seahawks WR Bobby Engram fractured his shoulder in the Seahawks preseason week 1 game.
Fantasy Impact: I had originally recommended Engram as a great late round pick who looked destined to produce WR3 numbers at the cost of a WR4. However, with Engram expected to miss 6-8 weeks, which includes at least 3 weeks of the regular season, he's more of WR4/5 type now. Once he returns to the field, he should be productive in Seattle's offense, but who knows how long this will actually keep the aging WR out of action.
Seattle's offense looks like a mess right now. With Maurice Morris and Julius Jones, they don't have a true starting RB. With Engram and Branch out for a while, their WR group is in very rough shape as well. This increases the value of Nate Burleson, who is now the only WR on their active roster who has legit experience as a starter. Seattle likes to go 3 wide, so pay attention to the now heated battle between Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu, and Logan Payne for the final 2 spots. One of those guys will likely step up and be rather productive with Engram out, but it's now up to the preseason battle to figure out which. Courtney Taylor appears to be the most talented, but it's mostly a group of relative unknowns.
Keep an eye on Engram's ADP up until your draft. If you can draft him as a WR5 due to concerns about his injury, he's worth stashing on your roster until he comes back healthy, or until you need that roster spot for someone else you find appealing.
Fantasy Impact: I had originally recommended Engram as a great late round pick who looked destined to produce WR3 numbers at the cost of a WR4. However, with Engram expected to miss 6-8 weeks, which includes at least 3 weeks of the regular season, he's more of WR4/5 type now. Once he returns to the field, he should be productive in Seattle's offense, but who knows how long this will actually keep the aging WR out of action.
Seattle's offense looks like a mess right now. With Maurice Morris and Julius Jones, they don't have a true starting RB. With Engram and Branch out for a while, their WR group is in very rough shape as well. This increases the value of Nate Burleson, who is now the only WR on their active roster who has legit experience as a starter. Seattle likes to go 3 wide, so pay attention to the now heated battle between Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu, and Logan Payne for the final 2 spots. One of those guys will likely step up and be rather productive with Engram out, but it's now up to the preseason battle to figure out which. Courtney Taylor appears to be the most talented, but it's mostly a group of relative unknowns.
Keep an eye on Engram's ADP up until your draft. If you can draft him as a WR5 due to concerns about his injury, he's worth stashing on your roster until he comes back healthy, or until you need that roster spot for someone else you find appealing.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Preseason Week 1 Player Notes
QB:
Alex Smith - Smith looked pretty lost in his first preseason game. He has some time to get it together and secure the starting position, but there's a lot of talk about J.T. O'Sullivan possibly starting week 1. O'Sullivan has the upper hand in terms of offensive system knowledge as he's spent time in Martz's system before, so Smith needs some time to catch up there. He's certainly smart enough to learn it, so I wouldn't panic yet. Obviously this would kill the sleeper potential Smith has should Smith not win the job. If you're targeting him as a QB2, keep an eye on his preseason progression.
RB:
DeAngelo Williams - Williams posted a huge first preseason game with 55 yards and 2 TDs. Stewart is still not ready for contact practices, much less game action, but should be soon. The toe is becoming more of a problem for him than I originally thought. Williams will have every opportunity to claim a much larger role in the offense with Stewart out, and a few more impressive preseason performances will secure him just that. I have always viewed Williams' skillset as similar to Brian Westbrook, and if Carolina can tweak their offense to suit his strengths, he could really impress. When Stewart is healthy, he definitely has the talent to carve out a sizeable role, but I'm starting to think Williams is a much better value at this point with a potential even time-share situation evolving here. I will update Stewart's value accordingly as his risk is rising.
Chris Johnson - Johnson posted 6 carries for 77 yards and a TD, including a 66 yard TD run. While Johnson proved that he's every bit the playmaker the Titans have said he is, I expect a LenDale White/Johnson situation similar to the McAllister/Bush situation for the Saints two years ago. White will do the heavy lifting and goal line work, while Johnson will provide a change of pace and a great receiving option. These are two very different types of RBs who provide a perfect compliment to each other. The Titans will run enough to make both plenty involved, and Johnson makes for a fun late round pick.
Julius Jones - Maurice Morris looked way better than Julius Jones in round 1. Morris posted 6 carries for 62 yards while Jones posted 4 carries for 15 yards. I originally thought Julius Jones would re-emerge this season under a new team, but rumor has it that his confidence is still not there. If this trend continues, Maurice Morris will take the primary role. Given Morris is being drafted 8 rounds later than Jones thanks to name value, Jones could go from under rated to over rated rather quickly.
WR:
Robert Meachem - Meachem blew up for 4 catches, 129 yards, and 1 TD. Meachem was a 1st round pick last year, but injuries and his inability to pick up the offense rendered him useless. Meachem's talent hasn't gone anywhere, and the Saints would be crazy not to give him a chance to unseat the mediocre veteran David Patten. Given he'll be on a great passing offense, he's a sleeper well worth keeping an eye on.
Alex Smith - Smith looked pretty lost in his first preseason game. He has some time to get it together and secure the starting position, but there's a lot of talk about J.T. O'Sullivan possibly starting week 1. O'Sullivan has the upper hand in terms of offensive system knowledge as he's spent time in Martz's system before, so Smith needs some time to catch up there. He's certainly smart enough to learn it, so I wouldn't panic yet. Obviously this would kill the sleeper potential Smith has should Smith not win the job. If you're targeting him as a QB2, keep an eye on his preseason progression.
RB:
DeAngelo Williams - Williams posted a huge first preseason game with 55 yards and 2 TDs. Stewart is still not ready for contact practices, much less game action, but should be soon. The toe is becoming more of a problem for him than I originally thought. Williams will have every opportunity to claim a much larger role in the offense with Stewart out, and a few more impressive preseason performances will secure him just that. I have always viewed Williams' skillset as similar to Brian Westbrook, and if Carolina can tweak their offense to suit his strengths, he could really impress. When Stewart is healthy, he definitely has the talent to carve out a sizeable role, but I'm starting to think Williams is a much better value at this point with a potential even time-share situation evolving here. I will update Stewart's value accordingly as his risk is rising.
Chris Johnson - Johnson posted 6 carries for 77 yards and a TD, including a 66 yard TD run. While Johnson proved that he's every bit the playmaker the Titans have said he is, I expect a LenDale White/Johnson situation similar to the McAllister/Bush situation for the Saints two years ago. White will do the heavy lifting and goal line work, while Johnson will provide a change of pace and a great receiving option. These are two very different types of RBs who provide a perfect compliment to each other. The Titans will run enough to make both plenty involved, and Johnson makes for a fun late round pick.
Julius Jones - Maurice Morris looked way better than Julius Jones in round 1. Morris posted 6 carries for 62 yards while Jones posted 4 carries for 15 yards. I originally thought Julius Jones would re-emerge this season under a new team, but rumor has it that his confidence is still not there. If this trend continues, Maurice Morris will take the primary role. Given Morris is being drafted 8 rounds later than Jones thanks to name value, Jones could go from under rated to over rated rather quickly.
WR:
Robert Meachem - Meachem blew up for 4 catches, 129 yards, and 1 TD. Meachem was a 1st round pick last year, but injuries and his inability to pick up the offense rendered him useless. Meachem's talent hasn't gone anywhere, and the Saints would be crazy not to give him a chance to unseat the mediocre veteran David Patten. Given he'll be on a great passing offense, he's a sleeper well worth keeping an eye on.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
QB Brett Favre Traded To The Jets
The Green Bay Packers have traded QB Brett Favre to the New York Jets, and they will receive a conditional draft choice. It starts off as a 4th rounder, escalates to a 3rd rounder if Favre plays 50% of the snaps, escalates to a 2nd rounder if Favre plays 75% of the snaps and the Jets make the playoffs, and finally, it will escalate to a 1st rounder if the Jets make the Super Bowl.
Thank God this is finally over with. I'm certain that most of you are with me in that you're tired of reading the daily and sometimes hourly Favre updates. I don't pay too much attention to ESPN, but double goes for those who do.
My thoughts on the situation are that more of the blame falls with Favre than with the Packers. Favre put this team into a tough situation on a yearly basis by delaying his decision on retirement until late in the offseason, and almost always until after the draft. I have a feeling that this season the Packers finally had enough, and they told Favre that he needed to make a decision sooner this year. Favre retired, and then regreted his decision, prompting this comeback. At that point, once Favre forced his hand by filing his re-instatement papers, the Packers took a hard line stance of doing what was best for the team. They had already committed to Aaron Rodgers, and considering he's viewed as their QB of the future, they weren't going to throw him back on the bench. The Packers also weren't going to trade him within the division, possibly affecting their ability to win the division. I think everyone knows that the Vikings are a good QB away from being a very dangerous team, and they had the most interest in Favre. That left Tampa Bay and New York. Favre preferred Tampa Bay, but trading him to Tampa Bay might affect their ability to get into the Super Bowl, despite that being a longshot, and Tampa Bay wasn't offering as much as New York was. Trading him to the Jets was the best move for the Green Bay franchise, and I'm glad they took a hard stance regarding the matter, and did what was best for the team. Rodgers isn't an upgrade over Favre for 2008, but he's as ready as he'll ever be this year, and the Packers want to see what they have in him as they prepare for the future of the offense. Talented rookie Brian Brohm moves to 2nd string.
Fantasy Impact: The New York Jets was my preferred landing spot for Brett Favre. He's a very solid QB2 selection, although I'd be very hesitant to make him my QB1. He will be plenty motivated to turn in a great season, however, and has similar talent around him compared to Green Bay. Thomas Jones should see more TD opportunities with a better QB, so his value rises. Laveranous Coles and Jerricho Cotchery both have a better QB with a much bigger arm throwing the ball to them, so their value rises. I was already bullish on Cotchery this season, but I like Coles more with the trade. I'll update both WRs below. Dustin Keller will see lots of time in the slot this season, and he becomes a slightly stronger TE2 pick. It's good news for the entire Jets offense.
I already ranked Aaron Rodgers assuming Brett Favre wasn't going to return to the Packers, but obviously this secures him as a very intriguing QB2 selection.
Thank God this is finally over with. I'm certain that most of you are with me in that you're tired of reading the daily and sometimes hourly Favre updates. I don't pay too much attention to ESPN, but double goes for those who do.
My thoughts on the situation are that more of the blame falls with Favre than with the Packers. Favre put this team into a tough situation on a yearly basis by delaying his decision on retirement until late in the offseason, and almost always until after the draft. I have a feeling that this season the Packers finally had enough, and they told Favre that he needed to make a decision sooner this year. Favre retired, and then regreted his decision, prompting this comeback. At that point, once Favre forced his hand by filing his re-instatement papers, the Packers took a hard line stance of doing what was best for the team. They had already committed to Aaron Rodgers, and considering he's viewed as their QB of the future, they weren't going to throw him back on the bench. The Packers also weren't going to trade him within the division, possibly affecting their ability to win the division. I think everyone knows that the Vikings are a good QB away from being a very dangerous team, and they had the most interest in Favre. That left Tampa Bay and New York. Favre preferred Tampa Bay, but trading him to Tampa Bay might affect their ability to get into the Super Bowl, despite that being a longshot, and Tampa Bay wasn't offering as much as New York was. Trading him to the Jets was the best move for the Green Bay franchise, and I'm glad they took a hard stance regarding the matter, and did what was best for the team. Rodgers isn't an upgrade over Favre for 2008, but he's as ready as he'll ever be this year, and the Packers want to see what they have in him as they prepare for the future of the offense. Talented rookie Brian Brohm moves to 2nd string.
Fantasy Impact: The New York Jets was my preferred landing spot for Brett Favre. He's a very solid QB2 selection, although I'd be very hesitant to make him my QB1. He will be plenty motivated to turn in a great season, however, and has similar talent around him compared to Green Bay. Thomas Jones should see more TD opportunities with a better QB, so his value rises. Laveranous Coles and Jerricho Cotchery both have a better QB with a much bigger arm throwing the ball to them, so their value rises. I was already bullish on Cotchery this season, but I like Coles more with the trade. I'll update both WRs below. Dustin Keller will see lots of time in the slot this season, and he becomes a slightly stronger TE2 pick. It's good news for the entire Jets offense.
I already ranked Aaron Rodgers assuming Brett Favre wasn't going to return to the Packers, but obviously this secures him as a very intriguing QB2 selection.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Broncos RB Ryan Torain Suffers Broken Elbow
Denver Broncos rookie RB Ryan Torain suffered a broken elbow in practice yesterday, and he is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks.
Fantasy Impact: Well, there goes my favorite RB sleeper. Torain was a 1st round talent who was drafted in the 5th round due to a Lisfranc foot fracture that he suffered in his senior season. He has the ideal frame and skill set for Denver's zone-blocking scheme, but this injury stunts his learning curve, and potentially eliminates his ability to start this season. Torain is not worth drafting in re-draft leagues.
Selvin Young becomes a much safer fantasy pick to begin the year. Torain was quickly gaining ground on Young, and he was on pace to potentially split time with Young, possibly as early as week 1. I will update Young's value analysis down below. Andre Hall is the favorite to back him up, and he looked impressive last season in spot start duty. Hall is definitely worth consideration towards the end of the draft, but he's not the threat to Young's job that Torain was as Young and Hall are similar players.
Fantasy Impact: Well, there goes my favorite RB sleeper. Torain was a 1st round talent who was drafted in the 5th round due to a Lisfranc foot fracture that he suffered in his senior season. He has the ideal frame and skill set for Denver's zone-blocking scheme, but this injury stunts his learning curve, and potentially eliminates his ability to start this season. Torain is not worth drafting in re-draft leagues.
Selvin Young becomes a much safer fantasy pick to begin the year. Torain was quickly gaining ground on Young, and he was on pace to potentially split time with Young, possibly as early as week 1. I will update Young's value analysis down below. Andre Hall is the favorite to back him up, and he looked impressive last season in spot start duty. Hall is definitely worth consideration towards the end of the draft, but he's not the threat to Young's job that Torain was as Young and Hall are similar players.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall Suspended For 2-3 Games
The NFL suspended Broncos WR Brandon Marshall for 2-3 games. The 3rd game of the suspension will not have to be served as long as Marshall attends counseling for his various off-the-field issues.
Fantasy Impact: The most complicating factor of Marshall's suspension is the fact he has a DUI trial on September 24th. No details have been released regarding what could happen to Marshall's 2008 availability pending the outcome of the trial. Several outcomes could take place from here. One, Marshall's current suspension could already include the fact he's due in court, and the outcome of the trial won't impact his availability for the 2008 season. Two, Marshall could face an additional suspension, pending on the results of the trial. Three, the trial could get postponed until after the 2008 season.
Marshall has the talent to be a WR1 when on the field. If he only misses 2 games on the season, he'll likely be a steal. His current ADP is now 57.2, near the end of the 5th round. I personally find it hard to believe that he'll be suspended again for a trial that was known about prior to the original suspension. That being said, he represents excellent WR2 value in the 5th round, and I'm recommending selecting him there.
Jay Cutler is a fantasy property whose value is closely tied to Marshall. With Marshall on the field, he has the talent and the passing game weapons necessary to make a leap into the 2nd tier of QBs behind Brady and Manning. With Marshall not on the field, he's without a proven commodity at the WR position, which would make it hard for him to take that next step in career progression. I'm also recommending Cutler as a strong break-through candidate and a good value where he's being drafted. Draft a safe QB2 behind Cutler that you wouldn't mind using the first couple weeks, and one who could start for you should Marshall miss additional time.
I will update both players in my value analysis below.
Fantasy Impact: The most complicating factor of Marshall's suspension is the fact he has a DUI trial on September 24th. No details have been released regarding what could happen to Marshall's 2008 availability pending the outcome of the trial. Several outcomes could take place from here. One, Marshall's current suspension could already include the fact he's due in court, and the outcome of the trial won't impact his availability for the 2008 season. Two, Marshall could face an additional suspension, pending on the results of the trial. Three, the trial could get postponed until after the 2008 season.
Marshall has the talent to be a WR1 when on the field. If he only misses 2 games on the season, he'll likely be a steal. His current ADP is now 57.2, near the end of the 5th round. I personally find it hard to believe that he'll be suspended again for a trial that was known about prior to the original suspension. That being said, he represents excellent WR2 value in the 5th round, and I'm recommending selecting him there.
Jay Cutler is a fantasy property whose value is closely tied to Marshall. With Marshall on the field, he has the talent and the passing game weapons necessary to make a leap into the 2nd tier of QBs behind Brady and Manning. With Marshall not on the field, he's without a proven commodity at the WR position, which would make it hard for him to take that next step in career progression. I'm also recommending Cutler as a strong break-through candidate and a good value where he's being drafted. Draft a safe QB2 behind Cutler that you wouldn't mind using the first couple weeks, and one who could start for you should Marshall miss additional time.
I will update both players in my value analysis below.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Panthers WR Steve Smith Suspended For 2 Games
The Carolina Panthers have suspended WR Steve Smith for 2 games following his fight with teammate Ken Lucas.
Fantasy Impact: I originally had Steve Smith in my top 5 receivers for this year, but it would take some serious production in the 14 games he plays to accomplish that. I view him more as a top WR2, and maybe a low WR1 now. It's going to be too hard for him to overcome missing 2 games to be a top WR1, but I feel that he will give you WR1 production when he plays. Either way you view him (WR1/WR2), you're going to need a WR4 that you can comfortably use the first two weeks if you draft Smith.
Fantasy Impact: I originally had Steve Smith in my top 5 receivers for this year, but it would take some serious production in the 14 games he plays to accomplish that. I view him more as a top WR2, and maybe a low WR1 now. It's going to be too hard for him to overcome missing 2 games to be a top WR1, but I feel that he will give you WR1 production when he plays. Either way you view him (WR1/WR2), you're going to need a WR4 that you can comfortably use the first two weeks if you draft Smith.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Position ADP Analysis Done, Plus Kicker/Defense Thoughts
Hey All
So I finalized my position analysis last night, concluding with the TE position. I don't feel the need to analyze the kickers and defenses. So many of the quality options at those positions coming off the waiver wire each season, half of the top 12 options at the positions get dumped early on. There's some simply guidelines I follow about both positions.
Kicker: I never, ever take one before the last round. I look for offenses that are set up to have nice seasons, and target one of those kickers. I also generally stay away from teams that play in bad weather during the final month and it definitely impacts a kicker's ability to post fantasy points. Domed kickers are great as well thanks to the environment in which they kick.
Defense: I generally don't take one before the second to last round. It's worth noting who played strong last season, and then analyzing the key additions/subtractions. Another quality way to play it is with weekly matchups. Now weekly defenses are not worth a waiver selection, so never burn your waiver position on a defense. If too many people in your league are doing weekly defensive matchups, then that's another negative as you have to be very quick to grab the best option for the following week. At that point, it's easier to pick a defense that has a favorable schedule and run with them.
The regular season is still over a month away, so there should be some ADP juggling yet to be done, but the ADP snapshot right now will hold pretty steady in the overall sense. The players right now that might move the most are the players of questionable health such as Marvin Harrison and Antonio Gates. I expect Harrison to move up if he proves he's healthy, and I'd expect Gates to move down if he starts becoming more questionable to start the season. I do also expect Jeremy Shockey to move up a bit as more mock drafts take his trade into account. I will update the blog with injuries and acquisitions that will impact players, and if I change my mind on a player, I'll edit the existing entry and then post that there was an edit.
In terms of making this ADP analysis work for myself, I also believe in the tiering system. If you're unfamiliar with tiering, it's grouping players at each position that you feel will perform similar to each other for the upcoming season. That way you can determine where you feel the performances dropoffs are for each position, and then draft accordingly as you build your team. Say you're deciding between a QB and a RB in a particular round. If there is only one QB in his tier left, but there are 5 RBs left in their tier, it would make more sense to choose the QB as you can likely pick up a similar RB the next round. By taking the ADP analysis and applying your own personal preferences, you can group these players together and have a cheat sheet to go off of for your draft.
I'll definitely have some people that will disagree with my reasoning on various players, and that's what makes fantasy football fun. It's never predictable, and nobody is ever right all the time. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes for the following seasons if you see patterns developing. Hopefully my "draft guide" helps you out in some fashion for the upcoming season!
So I finalized my position analysis last night, concluding with the TE position. I don't feel the need to analyze the kickers and defenses. So many of the quality options at those positions coming off the waiver wire each season, half of the top 12 options at the positions get dumped early on. There's some simply guidelines I follow about both positions.
Kicker: I never, ever take one before the last round. I look for offenses that are set up to have nice seasons, and target one of those kickers. I also generally stay away from teams that play in bad weather during the final month and it definitely impacts a kicker's ability to post fantasy points. Domed kickers are great as well thanks to the environment in which they kick.
Defense: I generally don't take one before the second to last round. It's worth noting who played strong last season, and then analyzing the key additions/subtractions. Another quality way to play it is with weekly matchups. Now weekly defenses are not worth a waiver selection, so never burn your waiver position on a defense. If too many people in your league are doing weekly defensive matchups, then that's another negative as you have to be very quick to grab the best option for the following week. At that point, it's easier to pick a defense that has a favorable schedule and run with them.
The regular season is still over a month away, so there should be some ADP juggling yet to be done, but the ADP snapshot right now will hold pretty steady in the overall sense. The players right now that might move the most are the players of questionable health such as Marvin Harrison and Antonio Gates. I expect Harrison to move up if he proves he's healthy, and I'd expect Gates to move down if he starts becoming more questionable to start the season. I do also expect Jeremy Shockey to move up a bit as more mock drafts take his trade into account. I will update the blog with injuries and acquisitions that will impact players, and if I change my mind on a player, I'll edit the existing entry and then post that there was an edit.
In terms of making this ADP analysis work for myself, I also believe in the tiering system. If you're unfamiliar with tiering, it's grouping players at each position that you feel will perform similar to each other for the upcoming season. That way you can determine where you feel the performances dropoffs are for each position, and then draft accordingly as you build your team. Say you're deciding between a QB and a RB in a particular round. If there is only one QB in his tier left, but there are 5 RBs left in their tier, it would make more sense to choose the QB as you can likely pick up a similar RB the next round. By taking the ADP analysis and applying your own personal preferences, you can group these players together and have a cheat sheet to go off of for your draft.
I'll definitely have some people that will disagree with my reasoning on various players, and that's what makes fantasy football fun. It's never predictable, and nobody is ever right all the time. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes for the following seasons if you see patterns developing. Hopefully my "draft guide" helps you out in some fashion for the upcoming season!
Monday, July 28, 2008
TE Value Analysis
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Jason Witten exploded on the scene last season, posting an incredible 1,145 yards with 7 TDs. The Cowboys fully recognized that Witten was the 2nd best receiver on the team behind Owens and properly utilized him all over the field. While I certainly don't expect Witten to improve or match his incredible yardage total from last season, the Cowboys offense remains in tact, and Witten is a virtual certainty to remain highly productive. With Gates' health a complete uncertainty, there's no safer bet for a top 3 TE production than Witten. If you're into drafting TEs early, Witten is worth grabbing.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Antonio Gates' foot surgery, Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Antonio Gates was his usual dominant self in the first half of 2007, but tailed off in the 2nd half prior to a serious foot injury that he suffered in the playoffs. Surgery ensued, and it's uncertain if Gates will be ready for the season. He's a candidate for the PUP list. As the uncertainty continues on into the preseason, I expect his ADP to drop accordingly, and there's no way you should be paying top value for a player questionable for the start of the regular season. Avoid him at this price, but continue to monitor his ADP trend and the reports of his health once the preseason starts to get going.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Kellen Winslow, for the 2nd straight season, well outperformed his ADP. He finished 3rd behind Witten and Gonzalez in TE receiving yardage, and he also posted 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards blew up, helping keep defensive attention off the rising star. I would guess Winslow, out of all the Cleveland skill positions, stands to lose the least with the uncertainty I have about the Cleveland offense. If Anderson struggles and Quinn takes over, the TE will be the safety valve for both guys as this happens. Winslow's big plays might decrease, but he'll continue to rack up yardage and score several TDs, which is enough to keep him towards the top of the TEs. And that's the worst case scenario. Winslow's knee no longer seems to be a short term concern, but he carries a bit more risk than Witten.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Tony Gonzalez turned in the best season of his career last year. While he didn't post a career high in catches, yardage, or TDs, he came awfully close in catches and yardage, all the while playing for one of the worst offenses of his career. The emergence of Dwayne Bowe should help open things up over the middle for Gonzalez, but the offense should be just about as bad this season, and expecting Gonzalez to repeat would be foolish. Now it's obvious from his ADP that drafters are indeed not expecting such a repeat, but while he's a safe choice, the upside isn't there, and I believe there are better values to be had later in the draft.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: The absence of Marvin Harrison did wonders for Clark's fantasy value as he immediately became Manning's 2nd best receiving option. The 616 yards certainly isn't awe-inpsiring, but the 11 TDs certainly were. Like the math games we've played before on this value analysis, I again ask which value doesn't belong? Complicate that with Harrison's likely return to the offense, and Clark has all the things working against him to be a slight fantasy bust. Clark should still post a solid season, but we're dealing with an injury prone TE who had a fluky year of TDs. There are better values later on.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Chris Cooley offered excellent value last season to his fantasy owners. Despite being drafted as a fringe starter, Cooley put together a 4 game scoring streak in weeks 2-6, and then in the 2nd half, he posted higher yardage totals to make up for scoring slightly less frequently. The offense around him now changes as the WCO will be installed by new coach Zorn, and the Skins added talent to the WR position via the draft. Zorn came from Seattle, and Seattle used their TEs consistently in the offense, but they never had a talent like Cooley. Cooley does not possess great speed from the TE position, but he gets open and has solid hands. Cooley is a safe pick who should repeat the consistent average he hovers around every season of 750 yards and 7 TDs. There's no upside here, but there's not much downside either.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey posted his usual solid receiving totals last season, but owners always seem to be expecting more. I believe part of the reason he hasn't delivered more is because his style of super-aggressive style of play has lead to nagging injuries, and another reason is because the Giants have focused quite a bit on their running game with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs & Co. since Shockey has been there. Another reason is the inconsistency the Eli Manning has shown in his career. All that is about to change. Shockey's new offense will utilize him more as a receiving threat, and that could cut back on injuries as he won't have to block as often. The Saints are about as pass happy as any offense in the NFL, so he'll also be running more routes based on that fact as well. Finally, Drew Brees is a much better QB than Eli Manning is, which should lead to more consistency. All things are looking up for Shockey, and while I expect his ADP to rise some after the trade, he's recommended as a top 5 selection. Just beware that his injury risk isn't a thing of the past, but I believe the upside is worth it. Just make sure to add a solid TE2 in the likelihood that Shockey misses a couple games.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Vernon Davis still has the most impressive physical skills of anyone not named Antonio Gates, but he's yet to be used properly. He's been the vicitim of poor passing attacks his first two seasons, but that will change with Martz in town. The problem is that Martz has never used a TE as a primary receiving option before, and considering his offense is based off of quick WRs running good routes, Davis certainly doesn't qualify under either of those classifications. Davis is more of the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson athlete type that Martz never fully understood how to use in Detroit. His skills and the improved passing attack offer upside, but the questionable fit into the new scheme offers downside. I think he's a very interesting risk in the middle rounds of the draft.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Todd Heap had a disasterous season in 2007, playing in only 6 games while battling various leg injuries. He comes back 100% in 2008, and with an offensive coordinator who knows how to use the TE. The only thing holding Heap back will be the play of his QB as both Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are unproven youngsters. Smith would probably be preferred. Mason and Clayton offer two solid WRs to keep attention away. The offensive situation and his nagging injuries offer some downside, but at this price, he's worth investing in.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Miller didn't rack up much yardage, but he posted 7 TDs as another beneficiary of the inability for Pittsburgh to run the ball near the goal line. Like I talked about before with Pittsburgh's offense, they will likely throw for less TDs, but I expect Miller to maintain his TD pace. He's a great red zone target, and if Pittsburgh can re-establish the running game near the goal line, expect a couple playaction TD catches from Miller as well. I also expect Miller to continue being utilized a bit more in the passing game, and he should increase his yardage total somewhat as a result. Given the expected improvement, and the fact there's not a lot of downside, I think Miller is a good value this season.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Despite the prolific Patriots passing attack, Watson's yardage fell off a cliff. He had a monster game against Dallas, posting 107 yards and 2 TDs, but he never topped 49 yards in any other game. He did score 6 TDs, but only one after the week 5 explosion. Watson remains supremely talented, but unfortunately that talent doesn't include his hands. Thanks to his inconsistent targets, he can't afford to drop passes, but he does anyways. After 4 years, sudden improvement seems unlikely. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a weekly option.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Crumpler is the new starting TE for the Titans. Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins.
Overview: Alge Crumpler, Michael Vick's favorite target, missed him more than anyone else on the team. He was very consistent from 2004 - 2006, posting 775+ yards with an average of 6 TDs. Last season a diminshed role in the offense combined with a knee injury that spilled over into the regular season sapped him of his ability to produce. He now moves to another offense anchored around the running game and a running QB, so he's a perfect fit. I expect a bounce back season from Crumpler, and he's providing a nice value as the last starting TE taken off the board.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's pending suspension.
Overview: Tony Scheffler missed the first 4 games of the 2007 season with an injury, but when he returned, he showed off his talent. He was only held under 30 yards twice, and he posted 5 TDs. Scheffler dealt with another foot injury this offseason, but he apperars 100%. Scheffler has a great chemistry with Jay Cutler, and while having Brandon Marshall would keep attention off of him, I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant the defense's attention anyways. He should be Cutler's secondary target with Marshall there, and he could share primary target duties when Marshall misses time. He's a great value this late.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: Owen Daniels, along with Andre Johnson, were prime beneficiaries of the greatly improved Houston Texans passing attack. Between Schaub and Rosenfels, there were plenty of targets for Daniels. The only downside were the 3 TDs, but that was a fluky result for a TE that posted over 700 yards. Simply put, there's absolutely no reason Daniels should be taken as a TE2. He's way undervalued and should prove to be the best bargain of all TEs this season.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Olsen should be the Bears' new starting TE, new starting RB Matt Forte, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Greg Olsen flashed some big time potential in his first season, but like all rookie TEs, he had a lot to learn and was inconsistent. He had a 4 game stretch of 4+ catches and 48+ yards with 2 TDs, but was very inconsistent after that. The Chicago Bears offense remains a train wreck on paper, but Olsen should be one of the most targeted receivers on the team. His blocking needs work, so he won't be on the field as much as most TEs, so his TE2 price tag is right. He's a great guy to gamble on in case he breaks through this season.
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Jason Witten exploded on the scene last season, posting an incredible 1,145 yards with 7 TDs. The Cowboys fully recognized that Witten was the 2nd best receiver on the team behind Owens and properly utilized him all over the field. While I certainly don't expect Witten to improve or match his incredible yardage total from last season, the Cowboys offense remains in tact, and Witten is a virtual certainty to remain highly productive. With Gates' health a complete uncertainty, there's no safer bet for a top 3 TE production than Witten. If you're into drafting TEs early, Witten is worth grabbing.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Antonio Gates' foot surgery, Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Antonio Gates was his usual dominant self in the first half of 2007, but tailed off in the 2nd half prior to a serious foot injury that he suffered in the playoffs. Surgery ensued, and it's uncertain if Gates will be ready for the season. He's a candidate for the PUP list. As the uncertainty continues on into the preseason, I expect his ADP to drop accordingly, and there's no way you should be paying top value for a player questionable for the start of the regular season. Avoid him at this price, but continue to monitor his ADP trend and the reports of his health once the preseason starts to get going.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Kellen Winslow, for the 2nd straight season, well outperformed his ADP. He finished 3rd behind Witten and Gonzalez in TE receiving yardage, and he also posted 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards blew up, helping keep defensive attention off the rising star. I would guess Winslow, out of all the Cleveland skill positions, stands to lose the least with the uncertainty I have about the Cleveland offense. If Anderson struggles and Quinn takes over, the TE will be the safety valve for both guys as this happens. Winslow's big plays might decrease, but he'll continue to rack up yardage and score several TDs, which is enough to keep him towards the top of the TEs. And that's the worst case scenario. Winslow's knee no longer seems to be a short term concern, but he carries a bit more risk than Witten.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Tony Gonzalez turned in the best season of his career last year. While he didn't post a career high in catches, yardage, or TDs, he came awfully close in catches and yardage, all the while playing for one of the worst offenses of his career. The emergence of Dwayne Bowe should help open things up over the middle for Gonzalez, but the offense should be just about as bad this season, and expecting Gonzalez to repeat would be foolish. Now it's obvious from his ADP that drafters are indeed not expecting such a repeat, but while he's a safe choice, the upside isn't there, and I believe there are better values to be had later in the draft.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: The absence of Marvin Harrison did wonders for Clark's fantasy value as he immediately became Manning's 2nd best receiving option. The 616 yards certainly isn't awe-inpsiring, but the 11 TDs certainly were. Like the math games we've played before on this value analysis, I again ask which value doesn't belong? Complicate that with Harrison's likely return to the offense, and Clark has all the things working against him to be a slight fantasy bust. Clark should still post a solid season, but we're dealing with an injury prone TE who had a fluky year of TDs. There are better values later on.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Chris Cooley offered excellent value last season to his fantasy owners. Despite being drafted as a fringe starter, Cooley put together a 4 game scoring streak in weeks 2-6, and then in the 2nd half, he posted higher yardage totals to make up for scoring slightly less frequently. The offense around him now changes as the WCO will be installed by new coach Zorn, and the Skins added talent to the WR position via the draft. Zorn came from Seattle, and Seattle used their TEs consistently in the offense, but they never had a talent like Cooley. Cooley does not possess great speed from the TE position, but he gets open and has solid hands. Cooley is a safe pick who should repeat the consistent average he hovers around every season of 750 yards and 7 TDs. There's no upside here, but there's not much downside either.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey posted his usual solid receiving totals last season, but owners always seem to be expecting more. I believe part of the reason he hasn't delivered more is because his style of super-aggressive style of play has lead to nagging injuries, and another reason is because the Giants have focused quite a bit on their running game with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs & Co. since Shockey has been there. Another reason is the inconsistency the Eli Manning has shown in his career. All that is about to change. Shockey's new offense will utilize him more as a receiving threat, and that could cut back on injuries as he won't have to block as often. The Saints are about as pass happy as any offense in the NFL, so he'll also be running more routes based on that fact as well. Finally, Drew Brees is a much better QB than Eli Manning is, which should lead to more consistency. All things are looking up for Shockey, and while I expect his ADP to rise some after the trade, he's recommended as a top 5 selection. Just beware that his injury risk isn't a thing of the past, but I believe the upside is worth it. Just make sure to add a solid TE2 in the likelihood that Shockey misses a couple games.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Vernon Davis still has the most impressive physical skills of anyone not named Antonio Gates, but he's yet to be used properly. He's been the vicitim of poor passing attacks his first two seasons, but that will change with Martz in town. The problem is that Martz has never used a TE as a primary receiving option before, and considering his offense is based off of quick WRs running good routes, Davis certainly doesn't qualify under either of those classifications. Davis is more of the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson athlete type that Martz never fully understood how to use in Detroit. His skills and the improved passing attack offer upside, but the questionable fit into the new scheme offers downside. I think he's a very interesting risk in the middle rounds of the draft.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Todd Heap had a disasterous season in 2007, playing in only 6 games while battling various leg injuries. He comes back 100% in 2008, and with an offensive coordinator who knows how to use the TE. The only thing holding Heap back will be the play of his QB as both Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are unproven youngsters. Smith would probably be preferred. Mason and Clayton offer two solid WRs to keep attention away. The offensive situation and his nagging injuries offer some downside, but at this price, he's worth investing in.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Miller didn't rack up much yardage, but he posted 7 TDs as another beneficiary of the inability for Pittsburgh to run the ball near the goal line. Like I talked about before with Pittsburgh's offense, they will likely throw for less TDs, but I expect Miller to maintain his TD pace. He's a great red zone target, and if Pittsburgh can re-establish the running game near the goal line, expect a couple playaction TD catches from Miller as well. I also expect Miller to continue being utilized a bit more in the passing game, and he should increase his yardage total somewhat as a result. Given the expected improvement, and the fact there's not a lot of downside, I think Miller is a good value this season.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Despite the prolific Patriots passing attack, Watson's yardage fell off a cliff. He had a monster game against Dallas, posting 107 yards and 2 TDs, but he never topped 49 yards in any other game. He did score 6 TDs, but only one after the week 5 explosion. Watson remains supremely talented, but unfortunately that talent doesn't include his hands. Thanks to his inconsistent targets, he can't afford to drop passes, but he does anyways. After 4 years, sudden improvement seems unlikely. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a weekly option.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Crumpler is the new starting TE for the Titans. Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins.
Overview: Alge Crumpler, Michael Vick's favorite target, missed him more than anyone else on the team. He was very consistent from 2004 - 2006, posting 775+ yards with an average of 6 TDs. Last season a diminshed role in the offense combined with a knee injury that spilled over into the regular season sapped him of his ability to produce. He now moves to another offense anchored around the running game and a running QB, so he's a perfect fit. I expect a bounce back season from Crumpler, and he's providing a nice value as the last starting TE taken off the board.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's pending suspension.
Overview: Tony Scheffler missed the first 4 games of the 2007 season with an injury, but when he returned, he showed off his talent. He was only held under 30 yards twice, and he posted 5 TDs. Scheffler dealt with another foot injury this offseason, but he apperars 100%. Scheffler has a great chemistry with Jay Cutler, and while having Brandon Marshall would keep attention off of him, I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant the defense's attention anyways. He should be Cutler's secondary target with Marshall there, and he could share primary target duties when Marshall misses time. He's a great value this late.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: Owen Daniels, along with Andre Johnson, were prime beneficiaries of the greatly improved Houston Texans passing attack. Between Schaub and Rosenfels, there were plenty of targets for Daniels. The only downside were the 3 TDs, but that was a fluky result for a TE that posted over 700 yards. Simply put, there's absolutely no reason Daniels should be taken as a TE2. He's way undervalued and should prove to be the best bargain of all TEs this season.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Olsen should be the Bears' new starting TE, new starting RB Matt Forte, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Greg Olsen flashed some big time potential in his first season, but like all rookie TEs, he had a lot to learn and was inconsistent. He had a 4 game stretch of 4+ catches and 48+ yards with 2 TDs, but was very inconsistent after that. The Chicago Bears offense remains a train wreck on paper, but Olsen should be one of the most targeted receivers on the team. His blocking needs work, so he won't be on the field as much as most TEs, so his TE2 price tag is right. He's a great guy to gamble on in case he breaks through this season.
WR4 (37 - 48) Value Analysis
37) Derrick Mason
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Derrick Mason was a revelation last season, posting 103 catches and going over 1000 yards with 5 TDs. He was an excellent 3rd WR thanks to the inability for the Ravens to stretch the field, catching underneath routes all season long. Now 34 years old with long-time buddy Steve McNair gone, and an inconsistent QB to take over (either Troy Smith or Joe Flacco), you can expect him to continue declining as he was starting to do in 2006. There's no way he catches that many passes a game, especially with targets likely to be spread out to the now healthy Todd Heap, and also expect a rebound from Mark Clayton. You can aim much higher with your 4th WR, and you certainly don't want him starting every week.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bernard Berrian is the new starting WR for the Vikings, new starting RB Adrian Peterson.
Overview: Bernard Berrian performed about as expected with the Bears last season. He would have been a breakthrough candidate on most other teams, but the 2006 2nd half decline of Rex Grossman appropriately killed too much optimism. He came close to 1000 yards and tossed in 5 TDs, making him a solid value for where he was drafted last season. He now moves to another passing offense that projects to be below average, but is powered by a much better running game. Berrian should post some big games with a handful of big plays, but given there's another talented young WR across from him in Sydney Rice, he's not going to be given enough targets to be a weekly option. Don't rely on him each week.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Reggie Williams had an odd 2007 season. 629 yards, 10 TDs. Which one doesn't belong? Despite having a reputation of being slow, Williams converted numerous long catches and long touchdowns, showing some of the talent he was supposed to have. However, with Jerry Porter now in town and the run-first philosophy sure to stay, Williams will see even less targets. There's no way he matches his 2007 TD total, his yardage probably won't change much, and that makes him a poor selection.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Not many players turn in a career year at age 34, but Bobby Engram did just that last season. With Branch going down and Hackett often injured, Engram became Hasselbeck's top weekly target. With Hackett gone and Branch likely headed for at least the PUP list, plus the Seahawks not upgrading the WR group, look for Engram to post numbers in the same ballpark this season. Think 2007 Derek Mason with lots of catches, solid yardage, few big plays, and a handful of TDs. You won't find too many #1 WRs available this late, and while Engram is hardly a sexy selection with little upside, he should post reliable WR3 numbers all season long.
Update: Engram will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured shoulder. Best case figures to be him returning in week 4, at which point he should resume being borderline WR3 material.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Jamarcus Russell, drafted RB Darren McFadden, signed WR Javon Walker.
Overview: Ronald Curry was another popular sleeper last season, and he turned in a couple great weeks, but Oakland's passing attack remained a mess, and Curry suffered as a result. Curry has underrated talent, and he still possesses the ability to be a fantasy starter with WR2 upside. He's now familiar with the WR position at the NFL level after playing QB in college, but Jamarcus Russell's growing pains will limit what Curry is able to do. He's an interesting WR4 with upside, but his consistency will be tied with the maturation Russell shows in 2008.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donte Stallworth is the new starting WR for the Browns.
Overview: Donte Stallworth was somewhat of a bust in New England as Wes Welker stole the season some thought he'd be able to turn in opposite Randy Moss, although those familiar with Stallworth are well aware that he never meets expectations. With him now being drafted as a WR4, it seems suited to his upside. Like I've mentioned with Cleveland's offense before, I'm a bit wary on what we'll see from them this season, but Stallworth is again lined up opposite a stud WR, and Winslow is an elite TE as well. Stallworth won't see enough targets to start every week, nor will he remain healthy for 16 games, but there's backup ability here and he can be used against the right defenses. He's a good fit for Anderosn's downfield tendencies, and he's also a decent value here.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Darrell Jackson is the new starting WR for the Broncos.
Overview: Darrell Jackson was predictably a bust in San Francisco after they traded for him to become their #1 WR. Their passing game was atrocious, and Jackson isn't talented enough nor was he ever healthy enough to perservere. He now moves to Denver, and with Brandon Marshall's status in doubt, he could find himself as the #1 WR again, this time on a much better passing offense. Jackson is a complete wild card this season. During the games Marshall misses, if Jackson is healthy, he could surge to WR2 value. On the games Marshall plays, Jackson's upside is probably a WR3, and there's also a chance he could battle injuries again and be completely ineffective. Preseason should shed some light on his situation. He's a low risk as a WR4 with a potentially solid reward, so I view him as a solid value here.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: D.J. Hackett is the new starting WR for the Panthers, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: D.J. Hackett, another popular sleeper last season, actually lived up to his sleeper status when on the field. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that wasn't nearly often enough, playing in only 6 games due to ankle problems. Hackett now finds himself on a different offense with a run-first philosphy and competition for his starting job from Muhsin Muhammad. Hackett is unquestionably a better WR than Muhammad at this point in their career, but given the Panthers are a power running team, Muhammad's blocking is invaluable. This leads me to believe that Hackett won't be a true starter opposite Steve Smith, and thus he's being overvalued as a potential starter here. This could change, so keep an eye on preseason, but as of now he's not recommended as a potential platoon WR.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Sydney Rice flashed some great potential in his rookie season even though his numbers didn't reflect that. He'd have stud potential in a better offense, but he's playing on a run-first offense across from a highly priced WR acquisition in Berrian with an inconsistent QB in Jackson. This adds up to some wasted potential, but the upside exists, and he could be used in the right matchups. Peterson and the running game will command defenses to cram the box, and defenses will fear Berrian's speed, so Rice is set up in a position to make some noise. He's a solid 4th WR.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Nate Burleson exploded onto the scene as as 2nd year WR with 1006 yards and 9 TDs opposite Randy Moss in Minnesota, but he's been a bust since then. Horribly inconsistent play has marred his career thus far, but with the lack of quality alternatives in Seattle, Burleson will start again, alongside Bobby Engram. Seattle will still throw the ball plenty, and those targets have to go somewhere, so why not Burleson? He has much to prove, but he's an interesting pick as a starting WR in a solid passing attack this late in the draft. There's a chance he could lose his starting spot after the season gets started, but there's decent value to be had here if he keeps it.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Jerry Porter is the new starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Jerry Porter has spent years teasing fantasy owners as the talent that just never shined through. He made a lot of noise in his 3rd season playing the slot receiver role with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in the prolific Oakland passing attack of 2002, and in 2004 and 2005 he flirted with 1000 yard seasons, but he's just never become the receiver than numerous scouts thought he would. Porter turned in a comendable season in Oakland last season despite constantly being in the dog house, and now he's got a fresh start as the #1 WR for the Jaguars. He is playing for a run-first offense that won't pass a whole lot, so he's not going to rack up the receptions like many #1 WRs do, but he's the most talented WR for the Jags. Given their ability to get the ball downfield to the sluggish Reggie Williams, I expect Porter to turn in a WR3 season at worst, assuming he can get over the hamstring surgery that has him currently sidelined. Don't go drafting him as a WR3 and expecting immediately production, but he makes a great WR4 to stash for when he gets acclimated to his new team.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: There was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. Between the injuries that Fitzgerald and Boldin have suffered over the past 3 seasons, Johnson was given a handful of starts each year, was often picked up during those times, but then just never seemed to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Johnson is a big WR at 6'3, 216, so he's not the ideal fit for Martz's offense, although he was signed to start for the 49ers after Martz joined as the offensive coordinator. Martz will fix the 49ers passing attack, but how much remains to be determined. Johnson will benefit for starting for an offense destined to throw the ball a good amount, so there's some potential here. He's a bit risky as he's never started before, and I don't know if he'll end up being what Mike Martz wants, but the upside and WR4 price make him a solid selection.
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Derrick Mason was a revelation last season, posting 103 catches and going over 1000 yards with 5 TDs. He was an excellent 3rd WR thanks to the inability for the Ravens to stretch the field, catching underneath routes all season long. Now 34 years old with long-time buddy Steve McNair gone, and an inconsistent QB to take over (either Troy Smith or Joe Flacco), you can expect him to continue declining as he was starting to do in 2006. There's no way he catches that many passes a game, especially with targets likely to be spread out to the now healthy Todd Heap, and also expect a rebound from Mark Clayton. You can aim much higher with your 4th WR, and you certainly don't want him starting every week.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bernard Berrian is the new starting WR for the Vikings, new starting RB Adrian Peterson.
Overview: Bernard Berrian performed about as expected with the Bears last season. He would have been a breakthrough candidate on most other teams, but the 2006 2nd half decline of Rex Grossman appropriately killed too much optimism. He came close to 1000 yards and tossed in 5 TDs, making him a solid value for where he was drafted last season. He now moves to another passing offense that projects to be below average, but is powered by a much better running game. Berrian should post some big games with a handful of big plays, but given there's another talented young WR across from him in Sydney Rice, he's not going to be given enough targets to be a weekly option. Don't rely on him each week.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Reggie Williams had an odd 2007 season. 629 yards, 10 TDs. Which one doesn't belong? Despite having a reputation of being slow, Williams converted numerous long catches and long touchdowns, showing some of the talent he was supposed to have. However, with Jerry Porter now in town and the run-first philosophy sure to stay, Williams will see even less targets. There's no way he matches his 2007 TD total, his yardage probably won't change much, and that makes him a poor selection.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Not many players turn in a career year at age 34, but Bobby Engram did just that last season. With Branch going down and Hackett often injured, Engram became Hasselbeck's top weekly target. With Hackett gone and Branch likely headed for at least the PUP list, plus the Seahawks not upgrading the WR group, look for Engram to post numbers in the same ballpark this season. Think 2007 Derek Mason with lots of catches, solid yardage, few big plays, and a handful of TDs. You won't find too many #1 WRs available this late, and while Engram is hardly a sexy selection with little upside, he should post reliable WR3 numbers all season long.
Update: Engram will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured shoulder. Best case figures to be him returning in week 4, at which point he should resume being borderline WR3 material.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Jamarcus Russell, drafted RB Darren McFadden, signed WR Javon Walker.
Overview: Ronald Curry was another popular sleeper last season, and he turned in a couple great weeks, but Oakland's passing attack remained a mess, and Curry suffered as a result. Curry has underrated talent, and he still possesses the ability to be a fantasy starter with WR2 upside. He's now familiar with the WR position at the NFL level after playing QB in college, but Jamarcus Russell's growing pains will limit what Curry is able to do. He's an interesting WR4 with upside, but his consistency will be tied with the maturation Russell shows in 2008.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donte Stallworth is the new starting WR for the Browns.
Overview: Donte Stallworth was somewhat of a bust in New England as Wes Welker stole the season some thought he'd be able to turn in opposite Randy Moss, although those familiar with Stallworth are well aware that he never meets expectations. With him now being drafted as a WR4, it seems suited to his upside. Like I've mentioned with Cleveland's offense before, I'm a bit wary on what we'll see from them this season, but Stallworth is again lined up opposite a stud WR, and Winslow is an elite TE as well. Stallworth won't see enough targets to start every week, nor will he remain healthy for 16 games, but there's backup ability here and he can be used against the right defenses. He's a good fit for Anderosn's downfield tendencies, and he's also a decent value here.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Darrell Jackson is the new starting WR for the Broncos.
Overview: Darrell Jackson was predictably a bust in San Francisco after they traded for him to become their #1 WR. Their passing game was atrocious, and Jackson isn't talented enough nor was he ever healthy enough to perservere. He now moves to Denver, and with Brandon Marshall's status in doubt, he could find himself as the #1 WR again, this time on a much better passing offense. Jackson is a complete wild card this season. During the games Marshall misses, if Jackson is healthy, he could surge to WR2 value. On the games Marshall plays, Jackson's upside is probably a WR3, and there's also a chance he could battle injuries again and be completely ineffective. Preseason should shed some light on his situation. He's a low risk as a WR4 with a potentially solid reward, so I view him as a solid value here.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: D.J. Hackett is the new starting WR for the Panthers, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: D.J. Hackett, another popular sleeper last season, actually lived up to his sleeper status when on the field. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that wasn't nearly often enough, playing in only 6 games due to ankle problems. Hackett now finds himself on a different offense with a run-first philosphy and competition for his starting job from Muhsin Muhammad. Hackett is unquestionably a better WR than Muhammad at this point in their career, but given the Panthers are a power running team, Muhammad's blocking is invaluable. This leads me to believe that Hackett won't be a true starter opposite Steve Smith, and thus he's being overvalued as a potential starter here. This could change, so keep an eye on preseason, but as of now he's not recommended as a potential platoon WR.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Sydney Rice flashed some great potential in his rookie season even though his numbers didn't reflect that. He'd have stud potential in a better offense, but he's playing on a run-first offense across from a highly priced WR acquisition in Berrian with an inconsistent QB in Jackson. This adds up to some wasted potential, but the upside exists, and he could be used in the right matchups. Peterson and the running game will command defenses to cram the box, and defenses will fear Berrian's speed, so Rice is set up in a position to make some noise. He's a solid 4th WR.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Nate Burleson exploded onto the scene as as 2nd year WR with 1006 yards and 9 TDs opposite Randy Moss in Minnesota, but he's been a bust since then. Horribly inconsistent play has marred his career thus far, but with the lack of quality alternatives in Seattle, Burleson will start again, alongside Bobby Engram. Seattle will still throw the ball plenty, and those targets have to go somewhere, so why not Burleson? He has much to prove, but he's an interesting pick as a starting WR in a solid passing attack this late in the draft. There's a chance he could lose his starting spot after the season gets started, but there's decent value to be had here if he keeps it.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Jerry Porter is the new starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Jerry Porter has spent years teasing fantasy owners as the talent that just never shined through. He made a lot of noise in his 3rd season playing the slot receiver role with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in the prolific Oakland passing attack of 2002, and in 2004 and 2005 he flirted with 1000 yard seasons, but he's just never become the receiver than numerous scouts thought he would. Porter turned in a comendable season in Oakland last season despite constantly being in the dog house, and now he's got a fresh start as the #1 WR for the Jaguars. He is playing for a run-first offense that won't pass a whole lot, so he's not going to rack up the receptions like many #1 WRs do, but he's the most talented WR for the Jags. Given their ability to get the ball downfield to the sluggish Reggie Williams, I expect Porter to turn in a WR3 season at worst, assuming he can get over the hamstring surgery that has him currently sidelined. Don't go drafting him as a WR3 and expecting immediately production, but he makes a great WR4 to stash for when he gets acclimated to his new team.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: There was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. Between the injuries that Fitzgerald and Boldin have suffered over the past 3 seasons, Johnson was given a handful of starts each year, was often picked up during those times, but then just never seemed to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Johnson is a big WR at 6'3, 216, so he's not the ideal fit for Martz's offense, although he was signed to start for the 49ers after Martz joined as the offensive coordinator. Martz will fix the 49ers passing attack, but how much remains to be determined. Johnson will benefit for starting for an offense destined to throw the ball a good amount, so there's some potential here. He's a bit risky as he's never started before, and I don't know if he'll end up being what Mike Martz wants, but the upside and WR4 price make him a solid selection.
WR3 (25 - 36) Value Analysis
25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.
Overview: Joey Galloway has defied his age for the past 3 years, posting 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in his age 35-37 seasons. With Michael Clayton unable to capture the magic of his rookie season and the only other option the roster fellow geriatric Ike Hilliard, the Bucs continue to ride Galloway like a #1 receiver. Expect that to end this season. At 38 years old, I believe this is the season that marks the end of the road. The Bucs offense isn't going to light the NFL on fire, and Joey Galloway's upside is probably limited to not much higher up than where he's currently being drafted. With his age, the downside is tremendous, making Galloway a poor selection as a top WR3.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Chris Chambers was finally released from the prison known as Miami last season, and he joined the Chargers to become their #1 WR, and #2 receiving target after Antonio Gates. After somewhat of a slow start, he assimilated himself well into the offense, and posted solid WR3 numbers before exploding with a great run in the playoffs. He's SD's most talented WR, and with Gates' toe rehab likely affecting his availability for the start of the season, he'll be SD's top receiving target for as long as Gates is out. Complicating matters is the fact that Phillip Rivers is returning from ACL surgery, and like I mentioned with LT, QBs generally struggle in the first half after such a surgery. If Gates does miss time, I think that will counter-balance Rivers' assumed struggles by Chambers being used more often. I think Chambers is a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and not much downside. He's a good pick here.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bobby Petrino is no longer the head coach, QB competition.
Overview: Roddy White exploded last season under the downfield passing attack run by new head coach Bobby Petrino, posting career highs of 1202 yards and 6 TDs. With the new, conservative offense that Mike Mularkey runs taking over, I'm not as high on Roddy White this year. He was a potentially undervalued breakthrough candidate again this season in the right circumstances, but the Falcons offense is going through an overhaul into a run-first scheme, and it's very likely that rookie Matt Ryan will see significant playing time at some point. Given the conservative nature of the passing offense and the potential of a rookie QB playing a decent number of games, I don't see a lot of upside here for White, but he should still see the ball plenty as he's easily the best option in the passing game, and that should allow for him to match his ADP.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Vincent Jackson was a popular sleeper last year, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he didn't wake up til the playoffs. Jackson posted a couple nice games, but for the most part they were clunkers, and adding Chris Chambers to an offense that was run-oriented made things even worse. However, once the playoffs rolled around, the Chargers were throwing the ball all over the field, and Jackson responded with 3 nice games in a row. Much like Chambers, Jackson will benefit from any time that Gates misses. He'll move up to the #2 passing option with Gates sidelined, and he'll see both increased targets and production. He seems primed for a solid WR3 compaign without a whole lot of downside, so he's also a solid selection here. I definitely prefer Chambers, and if Gates returns, Jackson will have a hard time finding enough targets to be reliable on a weekly basis.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Coles' ability to play hurt was overmatched last season as he missed 5 games, played ineffectively hurt in others, and only had a few good games throughout the season. For the first time since pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, he's going to have a very good QB throwing him the ball. This will increase his consistency, his yardage output, and his TD output. Coles did have a very good chemsitry with Pennington, and you can't completely disregard that, but the acquisition of Favre improves the overall offense, which should trump that fact. Coles now becomes a very solid value as a WR3, and the only reason I don't have him as under valued is because of injury concerns.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Kevin Curtis made his Philadelphia debut last season, and I believe the word "erratic" was the best way to describe him. He had 3 100 yard games with at least 1 TD, one other game with 78 yards and a TD, but he didn't score in the other 12 games, nor did he cross 100 yards. You can blame part of that on learning a new offense and part of it on the overall struggles of the Philly passing game. With McNabb turning in a healthy offseason, Curtis does have some additional upside via what should go down as a more consistent season. He's a reliable route runner with deep speed and solid hands, and he should be the 1A to Reggie Brown's 1B. If Reggie Brown finally steps up this season, he could see less targets, but his ability to make big plays should overcome that somewhat, as will the willingness for Philadelphia to throw the ball a lot. I think he's a solid value here with a little bit of upside and a little bit of downside.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive 2007 season given the struggles of the Jets offense. He put up 169 more yards more than his previous season despite poor QB play, although the 2 TDs were a concern. Cotchery, despite the non-household name, is in the same mold at TO, Boldin, and rookie Dwayne Bowe in that he's very hard to bring down and will run over defensive backs at will. He also has the speed to beat the defense, which means he can shine in both the short and deep passing game. With the acquisition of Brett Favre, I bet that Cotchery passes Coles as the #1 option for the Jets passing game this season. I think Cotchery leaps into the WR2 territory this year, and for a WR3 price, that's good value.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Anthony Gonzalez showed well in the Indy offense last season with Harrison out. He was originally going to be the slot receiver and hopefully fill Stokley's role, but Harrison injury forced him outside, and he put up a solid rookie season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes, but that's to be expected from most rookie WRs. Indy did well here as Harrison's understudy. For his 2008 value, it's simple. If Marvin Harrison is healthy, Gonzalez is a poor WR3 as he'd be behind Wayne, Harrison, and Clark for targets. He'd have too many clunkers to rely upon on a weekly basis. This is looking more and more like the case, so I'd pass on Gonzalez at this price.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Reggie Brown was a popular pick last season after an impressive 2nd season, but McNabb's recovery from ACL surgery was overlooked. Once McNabb looked himself in the 2nd half, Brown looked much better, but Kevin Curtis cut into Brown's production. With McNabb healthy again, I expect Brown to improve upon his solid 2006 production of 816 yards, and the 8 TDs he scored that year are within reach as well, especially after scoring 4 times in the 2nd half of 2007. Brown doesn't have much downside as a WR3, but he certainly has upside in a solid offense with a good target across from him. I don't see him having the ability to be a true stud based on his spread-the-wealth offense, but I think he jumps into the WR2 realm this season, making him a good value.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Santana Moss was a pretty large bust in 2007, battling leg injuries for much of the year which cut into his production. He closed strong, however, giving owners some hope for 2008. Gone is the Gibbs' offense, and it's being replaced with the WCO that Jim Zorn brings over from Seattle. Moss will be the primary target for this new offense, and if you saw what Darrell Jackson was able to accomplish as the #1 target in Seattle's offense, Moss arguably has borderline WR1 upside. The only factor is how fast Jason Cambell grasps another new offensive scheme, although with as many scheme changes he faced in college, this should be old news to him. Moss is a solid fit into the WCO, and with Randle El moving to the slot, Cooley at TE, and talented rookie Malcolm Kelly across from him, defense won't be able to key on him so much. I think WR3 is his downside this season, and I like him to step it up from this position, making him a good value.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Javon Walker is the new starting WR for the Raiders.
Overview: Javon Walker was a massive bust in 2007. After a miraculous 2006 season with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in his new Broncos digs, much the same was expected in 2007, but his knee didn't cooperate. He showed up in week 2 with a big 108 yard performance, but disappeared for the rest of the season after that. His robbing in Vegas was possibly by a disgruntled fantasy owner, but doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward. The health of his knee, however, is. He's had multiple surgeries, and despite the incredible 2007 season, he's seemingly had problems with it ever since the initial ACL injury in 2006. Throw in the fact that Jamarcus Russell will be starting all season long, and I really find it hard to draft Walker as an every week WR3 starter. Keep an eye on his progress. If he looks good in preseason, it's time to re-visit his value. As of now, I wouldn't recommend him.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Patrick Crayton was a bit of a disappointment in 2007. He dropped passes despite the ridiculous hands he showed off in 2006, and he was insanely inconsistent. With Terry Glenn gone, the 2nd WR gig is all his, and I do expect improvement in 2008. Crayton should be more ready to be the starting WR, and being opposite of T.O. has big coverage advantages, especially with Witten the threat he is over the middle. That being said, however, he is the third option on the offense, and the Cowboys aren't going to pass like crazy. An improvement would put him into the reliable WR3 catagory, and I expect him to do that. There isn't much additional upside, however, but I believe last year would be his absolute downside as well.
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.
Overview: Joey Galloway has defied his age for the past 3 years, posting 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in his age 35-37 seasons. With Michael Clayton unable to capture the magic of his rookie season and the only other option the roster fellow geriatric Ike Hilliard, the Bucs continue to ride Galloway like a #1 receiver. Expect that to end this season. At 38 years old, I believe this is the season that marks the end of the road. The Bucs offense isn't going to light the NFL on fire, and Joey Galloway's upside is probably limited to not much higher up than where he's currently being drafted. With his age, the downside is tremendous, making Galloway a poor selection as a top WR3.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Chris Chambers was finally released from the prison known as Miami last season, and he joined the Chargers to become their #1 WR, and #2 receiving target after Antonio Gates. After somewhat of a slow start, he assimilated himself well into the offense, and posted solid WR3 numbers before exploding with a great run in the playoffs. He's SD's most talented WR, and with Gates' toe rehab likely affecting his availability for the start of the season, he'll be SD's top receiving target for as long as Gates is out. Complicating matters is the fact that Phillip Rivers is returning from ACL surgery, and like I mentioned with LT, QBs generally struggle in the first half after such a surgery. If Gates does miss time, I think that will counter-balance Rivers' assumed struggles by Chambers being used more often. I think Chambers is a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and not much downside. He's a good pick here.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bobby Petrino is no longer the head coach, QB competition.
Overview: Roddy White exploded last season under the downfield passing attack run by new head coach Bobby Petrino, posting career highs of 1202 yards and 6 TDs. With the new, conservative offense that Mike Mularkey runs taking over, I'm not as high on Roddy White this year. He was a potentially undervalued breakthrough candidate again this season in the right circumstances, but the Falcons offense is going through an overhaul into a run-first scheme, and it's very likely that rookie Matt Ryan will see significant playing time at some point. Given the conservative nature of the passing offense and the potential of a rookie QB playing a decent number of games, I don't see a lot of upside here for White, but he should still see the ball plenty as he's easily the best option in the passing game, and that should allow for him to match his ADP.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Vincent Jackson was a popular sleeper last year, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he didn't wake up til the playoffs. Jackson posted a couple nice games, but for the most part they were clunkers, and adding Chris Chambers to an offense that was run-oriented made things even worse. However, once the playoffs rolled around, the Chargers were throwing the ball all over the field, and Jackson responded with 3 nice games in a row. Much like Chambers, Jackson will benefit from any time that Gates misses. He'll move up to the #2 passing option with Gates sidelined, and he'll see both increased targets and production. He seems primed for a solid WR3 compaign without a whole lot of downside, so he's also a solid selection here. I definitely prefer Chambers, and if Gates returns, Jackson will have a hard time finding enough targets to be reliable on a weekly basis.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Coles' ability to play hurt was overmatched last season as he missed 5 games, played ineffectively hurt in others, and only had a few good games throughout the season. For the first time since pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, he's going to have a very good QB throwing him the ball. This will increase his consistency, his yardage output, and his TD output. Coles did have a very good chemsitry with Pennington, and you can't completely disregard that, but the acquisition of Favre improves the overall offense, which should trump that fact. Coles now becomes a very solid value as a WR3, and the only reason I don't have him as under valued is because of injury concerns.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Kevin Curtis made his Philadelphia debut last season, and I believe the word "erratic" was the best way to describe him. He had 3 100 yard games with at least 1 TD, one other game with 78 yards and a TD, but he didn't score in the other 12 games, nor did he cross 100 yards. You can blame part of that on learning a new offense and part of it on the overall struggles of the Philly passing game. With McNabb turning in a healthy offseason, Curtis does have some additional upside via what should go down as a more consistent season. He's a reliable route runner with deep speed and solid hands, and he should be the 1A to Reggie Brown's 1B. If Reggie Brown finally steps up this season, he could see less targets, but his ability to make big plays should overcome that somewhat, as will the willingness for Philadelphia to throw the ball a lot. I think he's a solid value here with a little bit of upside and a little bit of downside.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive 2007 season given the struggles of the Jets offense. He put up 169 more yards more than his previous season despite poor QB play, although the 2 TDs were a concern. Cotchery, despite the non-household name, is in the same mold at TO, Boldin, and rookie Dwayne Bowe in that he's very hard to bring down and will run over defensive backs at will. He also has the speed to beat the defense, which means he can shine in both the short and deep passing game. With the acquisition of Brett Favre, I bet that Cotchery passes Coles as the #1 option for the Jets passing game this season. I think Cotchery leaps into the WR2 territory this year, and for a WR3 price, that's good value.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Anthony Gonzalez showed well in the Indy offense last season with Harrison out. He was originally going to be the slot receiver and hopefully fill Stokley's role, but Harrison injury forced him outside, and he put up a solid rookie season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes, but that's to be expected from most rookie WRs. Indy did well here as Harrison's understudy. For his 2008 value, it's simple. If Marvin Harrison is healthy, Gonzalez is a poor WR3 as he'd be behind Wayne, Harrison, and Clark for targets. He'd have too many clunkers to rely upon on a weekly basis. This is looking more and more like the case, so I'd pass on Gonzalez at this price.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Reggie Brown was a popular pick last season after an impressive 2nd season, but McNabb's recovery from ACL surgery was overlooked. Once McNabb looked himself in the 2nd half, Brown looked much better, but Kevin Curtis cut into Brown's production. With McNabb healthy again, I expect Brown to improve upon his solid 2006 production of 816 yards, and the 8 TDs he scored that year are within reach as well, especially after scoring 4 times in the 2nd half of 2007. Brown doesn't have much downside as a WR3, but he certainly has upside in a solid offense with a good target across from him. I don't see him having the ability to be a true stud based on his spread-the-wealth offense, but I think he jumps into the WR2 realm this season, making him a good value.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Santana Moss was a pretty large bust in 2007, battling leg injuries for much of the year which cut into his production. He closed strong, however, giving owners some hope for 2008. Gone is the Gibbs' offense, and it's being replaced with the WCO that Jim Zorn brings over from Seattle. Moss will be the primary target for this new offense, and if you saw what Darrell Jackson was able to accomplish as the #1 target in Seattle's offense, Moss arguably has borderline WR1 upside. The only factor is how fast Jason Cambell grasps another new offensive scheme, although with as many scheme changes he faced in college, this should be old news to him. Moss is a solid fit into the WCO, and with Randle El moving to the slot, Cooley at TE, and talented rookie Malcolm Kelly across from him, defense won't be able to key on him so much. I think WR3 is his downside this season, and I like him to step it up from this position, making him a good value.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Javon Walker is the new starting WR for the Raiders.
Overview: Javon Walker was a massive bust in 2007. After a miraculous 2006 season with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in his new Broncos digs, much the same was expected in 2007, but his knee didn't cooperate. He showed up in week 2 with a big 108 yard performance, but disappeared for the rest of the season after that. His robbing in Vegas was possibly by a disgruntled fantasy owner, but doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward. The health of his knee, however, is. He's had multiple surgeries, and despite the incredible 2007 season, he's seemingly had problems with it ever since the initial ACL injury in 2006. Throw in the fact that Jamarcus Russell will be starting all season long, and I really find it hard to draft Walker as an every week WR3 starter. Keep an eye on his progress. If he looks good in preseason, it's time to re-visit his value. As of now, I wouldn't recommend him.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Patrick Crayton was a bit of a disappointment in 2007. He dropped passes despite the ridiculous hands he showed off in 2006, and he was insanely inconsistent. With Terry Glenn gone, the 2nd WR gig is all his, and I do expect improvement in 2008. Crayton should be more ready to be the starting WR, and being opposite of T.O. has big coverage advantages, especially with Witten the threat he is over the middle. That being said, however, he is the third option on the offense, and the Cowboys aren't going to pass like crazy. An improvement would put him into the reliable WR3 catagory, and I expect him to do that. There isn't much additional upside, however, but I believe last year would be his absolute downside as well.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
WR2 (13 - 24) Value Analysis
13) Plaxico Burress
ADP: 36.1 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Traded TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Plaxico Burress was doing his best Randy Moss imitation during the first 6 weeks, scoring in every game. However, somewhere between weeks 1 and 2, he injured his ankle, and the pain from the injury finally caught up with him, limiting his explosion and ability to separate, and he went on a terrible 4 game stretch not topping 47 yards. His last 6 games were mixed bags of great games and duds. Such is life with Burress, who again is sitting out of camp with an ankle injury to start the preseason. If Burress is healthy, he's gonna put up great numbers, but he's terribly inconsistent and unreliable. Losing Jeremy Shockey to help deflect attention won't help, but Steve Smith should emerge as a quality secondary option. Burress is a somewhat interesting high risk/reward WR2, but don't go drafting him as your top WR.
14) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 39.9 (4th round, 4th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Matt Leinart.
Overview: Anquan Boldin again put up his usual numbers last season, but unfortunately those usual numbers include missed games. Boldin is right there with Owens in terms of after-the-catch ability, running through defenders at will and powering his way for extra yards much like a running back. Perhaps his style of play is to blame for the nagging injuries. Expect much of the same from Boldin this season, even with Leinart as the QB. His style suits Leinart's strengths better. Boldin is a much better fit as a WR2 than a WR1 given his propensity to miss games, and those who draft him should grab a quality WR4 to prepare accordingly. There always exists the possibility he'll play the whole season and post big numbers, but don't expect it to happen.
15) Greg Jennings
ADP: 41.7 (4th round, 6th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Greg Jennings was the big play king last season, amassing 920 yards and an incredible 12 TDs on only 53 catches. Now it doesn't take a math wizard to realize that that combination of numbers is simply not sustainable over the course of another season, especially with the change to Aaron Rodgers at QB. Donald Driver is definitely in decline and Greg Jennings would ideally replace him, but I'm not sure he has the skill set to be a true #1 WR. I would expect his catches and yards to increase, but I would also expect a decent decline in TDs as the offense just won't score as much with Favre gone, and Jennings stands the most to lose with the QB switch. There's no way I'm drafting Jennings up this high as this position is probably his absolute best case scenario.
16) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Grr. I was expecting big things from Roy Williams last season, drafting him as my WR1 in all 3 leagues. Week 3 was the turning point of the season. Seriously, how many WRs do you know have put up 204 receiving yards, and then get benched in the same game for screwing up? Fucking Roy Williams did. From there, Roy posted one 100 yard game and only scored (2 TDs) in one game before hurting his knee and missing the last month. Roy Williams has all the talent in the world, but he lacks the mental focus to keep it going consistently. Mike Martz was supposed to bring out the best in him, but it never happened. In all honesty, however, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson aren't the quick, expert route-running WRs that Martz prefers. Not to make excuses, but in retrospect, it wasn't the match made in heaven that we all thought it would be. 2008 represents yet another new start for the Lions offense. They will get back to a more traditional offensive approach, and while on the surface losing Mike Martz's pass-happy offense would appear to hurt Roy Williams, I don't believe it will. All those lost pass attempts and yardage will come at the expense of slot receivers Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. The passing game will focus on it's two best targets, and Roy Williams is the most experienced WR they have. The offensive line and Jon Kitna aren't great by any means, but they're solid enough to move the ball through the air. He's also playing for a new contract, and just like Chad Johnson, the added motivation should help his mental focus. He's a very nice value as a WR2 that still has WR1 upside, and I think there's a career season in him this year.
17) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 50.5 (5th round round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Santonio Holmes was a popular sleeper in 2007, and he produced as expected, almost reaching 1000 yards and tossing in 8 TDs. Unfortunately he also missed a few games again with an injury. Holmes is expected to replace Hines Ward as Big Ben's primary target, and it started to happen last year. With the Steelers likely to throw fewer TDs this season, Holmes will have to turn in a full 16 game season to improve upon last year's totals. He should improve his yardage, but probably not the TDs. There's not much downside to the selection, and there's still some additional upside, but the Steelers' run-first offense limits just how much. Consider Holmes a safe choice as a WR2.
18) Hines Ward
ADP: 56.6 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Hines Ward had a 5 year stretch of either 1000+ yards or 10+ TDs, proving to be one of the more reliable options at the WR position. Ward dealt with numerous knee injuries this past offseason, and at 32 years old, he could be breaking down. He was never the most explosive WR, but any additional loss from his ability to separate would be especially bad news. With Pittsburgh set to run as much as ever with the emergence of Santonio Holmes, and Ward will not longer see the targets needed to produce a WR2 stat line. Ward is still a good football player, but I'd look elsewhere for a WR2. Ward is much better suited as a WR3 this season, but he's not being drafted like one.
19) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 57.2 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Brandon Marshall's 2 game suspension, new starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert.
Overview: Brandon Marshall exploded into the WR elite last season. Thanks to Javon Walker's troublesome knee, he immediately became Cutler's favorite target, and he can make every catch on the football field. He either had 67+ yards, a TD, or both in every game, showing incredible consistency in his first full season as a starter. He's only going to get better, but it might not happen this season. An offseason WWE moment left him with a severe injury to his arm, but he looks 100% recovered from that now. Unfortunately, thanks to several off the field incidents, Marshall will serve a 2 game suspension to start the season. With Marshall set to miss only 2 games and fantasy nation still drafting him in the 5th round, Marshall looks like an excellent value. Future missed time due to a September 24th DUI trial remains a possibility, but given the suspension was handed down with the trial a known fact, I find it hard to believe that Marshall will miss additional time.
20) Marvin Harrison
ADP: 57.2 (5th round round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Marvin Harrison, for the first time in his career, let his fantasy owners down. His career started off with an amazing run of 1100+ yards and 10+ TDs in each of his first 8 seasons. A knee injury suffered in week 3 completely destroyed his season, and worse yet for his fantasy owners, the Colts continued to play it as a week-to-week thing. Between the offseason knee surgery that Marvin was slow to recover from and the shooting at a bar he was associated with, it looked like Harrison was done for good. With the shooting seemingly not linked to Harrison and the fact he's on the practice field already, it's time to start being bullish on Marvin Harrison. He isn't out of the woods yet by any means, but he's starting to look a potential 5th round steal. I advise drafting him at his current price, and he has the potential to be a star WR2 with lower WR1 upside. Just be careful with your other WR positions in preparation for a worst case scenario.
21) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 57.3 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Calvin Johnson was supposed to have the rookie season to end all rookie seasons for WRs. He had the talent, the work ethic, and the offensive system to allow him to accomplish that magical rookie season. Amazingly enough, Calvin Johnson was just another rookie WR. He struggled with mental mistakes, he dropped passes, and then a back injury de-railed his ability to consistently stay on the field. Like I mentioned above with Roy Williams, I don't expect the drop in passing attempts as the Lions move away from Martz's pass-happy offense to negatively impact Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. He's still an elite talent where it's a matter of "when", and not "if" he'll explode. Is this the season? At this price, it's worth investing to find out.
22) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 59.7 (5th round, 12th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Dwayne Bowe did what Calvin Johnson should have done. He was the star rookie WR to steal the show. A late season lull kept his overall numbers modest, but that's to be expected from a rookie playing 16 NFL games for the first time. There's a lot of concern about the Chiefs offensive line and Brodie Croyle, but Croyle has the arm to make the most of Bowe's talents. He can get deep, and he's a terror with the ball in his hands. I liken this situation to Cleveland and Braylon Edwards' last season, right down to the young star WR combined with the stud TE, but unfortunately KC's offensive line ino 2008 doesn't have the capability that Cleveland's did prior to 2007. Look for KC's offense to be incredibly conservative, so KC won't pass enough to see Bowe take off, but there's a strong probability that he'll improve on last season's numbers. With the best case upside of lower WR1, and that'd be very good WR2 material.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.
Overview: Fantasy owners were about ready to swear off Lee Evans for good after starting the season with no more than 17 yards in 4 of the first 5 games. Evans then took off in fine fashion from that point forward, posting solid WR2 numbers over the remainder of the season. He's still incredibly inconsistent, with the ability to disappear on any given week. With the inconsistent JP Losman now firmly on the bench, Trent Edwards will assume the starting duties. Edwards does not possess the same arm that Losman does, but he's a much better decision maker and a more consistent QB. It remains to be seen if Edwards has the arm capable of hitting Evans deep, but he should find him more often and increase his reception total. James Hardy adds a tall WR complement to Evans, and he is immediately the most talented WR to play across from Evans since Eric Moulds in Evans' rookie season. Evans is still a one man show as Hardy learns the NFL game, but he should provide solid WR2 numbers with the chance to explode into the top 10. He's another interesting upside pick as a late WR2 who doesn't have as low of a ceiling as you might think.
24) Donald Driver
ADP: 70.3 (6th round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Donald Driver has been one of the most unheralded good WRs in the NFL for a number of years, and he churned out his 5th 1000 yard season in 2007, but with only 2 TDs. Driver stands to lose the most with the change from Favre to Rodgers. Driver was Favre's preferred target for years, but Rodgers will probably work differently, and there's a lot of talent at the WR position in Green Bay now. With Driver no longer the top dog at the WR position and the ability for Green Bay to spread the targets amongst the talent on the team, look for Driver to continue to decline. The fact he's 33 only weakens his case to bounce back as a WR2 value. I don't see the upside with Driver anymore, and there's an outside possibility that things could get really ugly. I'd avoid him as a WR2.
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