13) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's. I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season. He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely. I think the 5th round sounds about right.
14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.
Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain. Let someone else take a chance on him.
15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.
Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.
16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2. Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.
17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.
18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.
Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.
19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.
Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.
21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.
Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.
22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.
24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
2009 WR1 Value Analysis
1) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
2009 RB5 Value Analysis
49) Ahmad Bradshaw
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
2009 RB4 Value Analysis
37) Tim Hightower
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Chris Wells.
Overview: Despite all of Edgerrin James' struggles during the regular season and Hightower's ascension to the primary ball carrier for Arizona, Hightower completely fell on his face when given the opportunity. He teased his owners with a breakout 22/109/1 TD in his first game as the starter against STL, but then couldn't average 3 yards a carry for the rest of his time as the starter as Arizona eventually abandoned the run. Hightower will still maintain his passing down work, and he has fought hard to fend off talented, but injury prone rookie Chris Wells. Hightower has reportedly improved his decision-making, so we'll see if that translates to Sundays. He's a solid RB4.
38) Leon Washington
ADP: 98.4 (9th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released QB Brett Favre, drafted RB Shonn Greene.
Overview: Unfortunately for Leon Washington, the Jets drafted Thomas Jones' heir apparent in Shonn Greene. Washington will maintain the exact same role as last year, but odds are that Greene will step in as the starter should Thomas Jones get hurt, so he doesn't possess the same upside as last year. However, with the Jets choosing between the unimpressive Kellen Clemens and rookie Jonathan Sanchez at QB, their strong offensive line, and their strong defense, the Jets are looking like a mirror image of the 2008 Ravens...coincidence as the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets coach? Probably not. Washington should post erratic weekly totals, but he will probably get more touches this year as they'll utilize his skills more and also run the ball as much as anyone in the league. I think he's a solid RB3.
39) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Mendenhall has quite a bit of upside for being drafted as a RB4. Willie Parker could be breaking down in front of him after 2 huge workloads in 2006 and 2007, and he'll likely be in on the money downs (passing, goal line) along with being a change-of-pace runner. Parker would have to get hurt to lose his starting job, but Mendenhall projects as the more valuable Steelers RB despite the lesser price tag. However, Mendenhall has shown little on the field as he continues to look like an ordinary RB. The shine of his upside is fading, although taking him as an RB4 could be worth it.
40) Le'Ron McClain
ADP: 101.8 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: McClain turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any RB last year. After starting the year as a mostly unknown FB, McClain ascended to starting RB and became the face of the Ravens smashmouth offensive style. McClain projects to take a backseat to Ray Rice this season, and he's actually moved back to the fullback position. Ray Rice looks like the projected goal line runner now, leaving McClain with no fantasy valued. He'll need an injury in front of him to matter again.
41) Fred Jackson
ADP: 106.1 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension for RB Marshawn Lynch, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Fred Jackson went from non-descript backup for a great young talented RB to an annoying drain on Lynch's carries. A coaching staff favorite, Jackson will get a 3 game stint as a starter during Lynch's suspension, and if he's as good as he showed last year, he'll definitely carve out a bigger role as a platoon-mate for Lynch. He's a definite RB2 for the first 3 weeks while Lynch is suspended, but he will go back to more of a RB3 as Lynch is also too talented to leave on the bench, and Lynch will almost certainly regain his starting position.
42) Earnest Graham
ADP: 107.0 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Graham clearly annoyed fantasy owners last year. After posting RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he started the year inexplicable sharing carries with veteran Warrick Dunn, and then when he finally start getting primary RB carries, he went down with an ankle injury and was lost for the rest of the season. Tampa signed Derrick Ward, and with Graham projects to be a lesser part of a RB committee. That all being said, Tampa is set to run plenty this year, Ward has had numerous injuries in his career, and Graham will certainly be on the field each game. He's a solid RB4.
43) LeSean McCoy
ADP: 107.1 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McCoy is the new backup RB for Philadelphia, released RB Correll Buckhalter.
Overview: McCoy, a scatback out of Pittsburgh, compares favorably to Brian Westbrook. He's very quick, excellent in the passing game, and just like Westbrook, he'll struggle running between the tackles to start his career. It remains to be seen what version of Brian Westbrook the Eagles will get after serious offseason ankle surgery as he turns 30, so McCoy could play more than the Eagles would prefer depending on how Westbrook holds up. His only competition is Lorenzo Booker, who's a lesser version of the same style of RB. He's an upside pick and a must-have for Westbrook owners.
44) Julius Jones
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Edgerrin James, released RB Maurice Morris.
Overview: Their offensive line sucks, they just signed Edge, and Julius Jones is an average talent at best. This is not the recipe for fantasy success. Avoid.
45) Fred Taylor
ADP: 118.6 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Taylor is part of the clustered NE backfield.
Overview: Taylor showed that he still has some tread on his tires left last season, but he's on his last legs and is joining a very crowded NE backfield. With Maroney likely to start and potentially dominate early down work, there's very little upside here, and Taylor's liabilities in the passing game won't give him much value at all. Pass.
46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Taylor lost carries last year, but he still played essentially the same role he always has since Adrian Peterson arrived. He's the exact same player that you drafted last year, and he'll come at a cheaper price. He's a must-have for Peterson owners, and he's a great RB4 even for non Peterson owners.
47) Ricky Williams
ADP: 125.5 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ricky Williams proved that he still had something left in his tank last season, posting a solid 4.1 YPC as the lesser half of a committee with Ronnie Brown. However, like I mentioned with Ronnie Brown, I expect Brown to take another step forward in the committee as he's another year removed from his ACL injury. This will decrease the amount of time that Williams sees the field, but with no true young backup on the roster, expect Williams to replace Brown as the primary ball carrier should Brown get hurt again.
48) Ray Rice
ADP: 126.4 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Rice is the new starting RB for the Ravens.
Overview: Here's one of the great sleepers in the early ADP reports. Much like Favre at the QB position, I expect his ADP to rise once more people realize that he is the starting RB for the Ravens. Rice has even played on goal line situations in the preseason, and with McClain's move back to fullback, Rice appears to have won the goal line back. He's also the best receiver at the RB position on the team, so along with being the lead back for carries, he'll also lead the RBs in receptions. Everyone expects Baltimore to continue running quite a bit, so expect Rice to approach RB2 value this season. Rice has ascended to the 5th/6th round territory where he's still a fine value. He's still a very good RB3, and perhaps even a RB2 if you're loading up at other positions.
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Chris Wells.
Overview: Despite all of Edgerrin James' struggles during the regular season and Hightower's ascension to the primary ball carrier for Arizona, Hightower completely fell on his face when given the opportunity. He teased his owners with a breakout 22/109/1 TD in his first game as the starter against STL, but then couldn't average 3 yards a carry for the rest of his time as the starter as Arizona eventually abandoned the run. Hightower will still maintain his passing down work, and he has fought hard to fend off talented, but injury prone rookie Chris Wells. Hightower has reportedly improved his decision-making, so we'll see if that translates to Sundays. He's a solid RB4.
38) Leon Washington
ADP: 98.4 (9th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released QB Brett Favre, drafted RB Shonn Greene.
Overview: Unfortunately for Leon Washington, the Jets drafted Thomas Jones' heir apparent in Shonn Greene. Washington will maintain the exact same role as last year, but odds are that Greene will step in as the starter should Thomas Jones get hurt, so he doesn't possess the same upside as last year. However, with the Jets choosing between the unimpressive Kellen Clemens and rookie Jonathan Sanchez at QB, their strong offensive line, and their strong defense, the Jets are looking like a mirror image of the 2008 Ravens...coincidence as the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets coach? Probably not. Washington should post erratic weekly totals, but he will probably get more touches this year as they'll utilize his skills more and also run the ball as much as anyone in the league. I think he's a solid RB3.
39) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Mendenhall has quite a bit of upside for being drafted as a RB4. Willie Parker could be breaking down in front of him after 2 huge workloads in 2006 and 2007, and he'll likely be in on the money downs (passing, goal line) along with being a change-of-pace runner. Parker would have to get hurt to lose his starting job, but Mendenhall projects as the more valuable Steelers RB despite the lesser price tag. However, Mendenhall has shown little on the field as he continues to look like an ordinary RB. The shine of his upside is fading, although taking him as an RB4 could be worth it.
40) Le'Ron McClain
ADP: 101.8 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: McClain turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any RB last year. After starting the year as a mostly unknown FB, McClain ascended to starting RB and became the face of the Ravens smashmouth offensive style. McClain projects to take a backseat to Ray Rice this season, and he's actually moved back to the fullback position. Ray Rice looks like the projected goal line runner now, leaving McClain with no fantasy valued. He'll need an injury in front of him to matter again.
41) Fred Jackson
ADP: 106.1 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension for RB Marshawn Lynch, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Fred Jackson went from non-descript backup for a great young talented RB to an annoying drain on Lynch's carries. A coaching staff favorite, Jackson will get a 3 game stint as a starter during Lynch's suspension, and if he's as good as he showed last year, he'll definitely carve out a bigger role as a platoon-mate for Lynch. He's a definite RB2 for the first 3 weeks while Lynch is suspended, but he will go back to more of a RB3 as Lynch is also too talented to leave on the bench, and Lynch will almost certainly regain his starting position.
42) Earnest Graham
ADP: 107.0 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Graham clearly annoyed fantasy owners last year. After posting RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he started the year inexplicable sharing carries with veteran Warrick Dunn, and then when he finally start getting primary RB carries, he went down with an ankle injury and was lost for the rest of the season. Tampa signed Derrick Ward, and with Graham projects to be a lesser part of a RB committee. That all being said, Tampa is set to run plenty this year, Ward has had numerous injuries in his career, and Graham will certainly be on the field each game. He's a solid RB4.
43) LeSean McCoy
ADP: 107.1 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McCoy is the new backup RB for Philadelphia, released RB Correll Buckhalter.
Overview: McCoy, a scatback out of Pittsburgh, compares favorably to Brian Westbrook. He's very quick, excellent in the passing game, and just like Westbrook, he'll struggle running between the tackles to start his career. It remains to be seen what version of Brian Westbrook the Eagles will get after serious offseason ankle surgery as he turns 30, so McCoy could play more than the Eagles would prefer depending on how Westbrook holds up. His only competition is Lorenzo Booker, who's a lesser version of the same style of RB. He's an upside pick and a must-have for Westbrook owners.
44) Julius Jones
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Edgerrin James, released RB Maurice Morris.
Overview: Their offensive line sucks, they just signed Edge, and Julius Jones is an average talent at best. This is not the recipe for fantasy success. Avoid.
45) Fred Taylor
ADP: 118.6 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Taylor is part of the clustered NE backfield.
Overview: Taylor showed that he still has some tread on his tires left last season, but he's on his last legs and is joining a very crowded NE backfield. With Maroney likely to start and potentially dominate early down work, there's very little upside here, and Taylor's liabilities in the passing game won't give him much value at all. Pass.
46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Taylor lost carries last year, but he still played essentially the same role he always has since Adrian Peterson arrived. He's the exact same player that you drafted last year, and he'll come at a cheaper price. He's a must-have for Peterson owners, and he's a great RB4 even for non Peterson owners.
47) Ricky Williams
ADP: 125.5 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ricky Williams proved that he still had something left in his tank last season, posting a solid 4.1 YPC as the lesser half of a committee with Ronnie Brown. However, like I mentioned with Ronnie Brown, I expect Brown to take another step forward in the committee as he's another year removed from his ACL injury. This will decrease the amount of time that Williams sees the field, but with no true young backup on the roster, expect Williams to replace Brown as the primary ball carrier should Brown get hurt again.
48) Ray Rice
ADP: 126.4 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Rice is the new starting RB for the Ravens.
Overview: Here's one of the great sleepers in the early ADP reports. Much like Favre at the QB position, I expect his ADP to rise once more people realize that he is the starting RB for the Ravens. Rice has even played on goal line situations in the preseason, and with McClain's move back to fullback, Rice appears to have won the goal line back. He's also the best receiver at the RB position on the team, so along with being the lead back for carries, he'll also lead the RBs in receptions. Everyone expects Baltimore to continue running quite a bit, so expect Rice to approach RB2 value this season. Rice has ascended to the 5th/6th round territory where he's still a fine value. He's still a very good RB3, and perhaps even a RB2 if you're loading up at other positions.
2009 RB3 Value Analysis
25) Larry Johnson
ADP: 52.5 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Matt Cassel is the new starting QB.
Overview: For the 2nd straight year, the wheels came off of LJ's season. He teased owners with a couple big games early on, however he crashed back down to Earth prior to legal troubles destroying the rest of his season. Appropriately, LJ has crashed into late RB2/early RB3 status. Odds are someone will draft him as an RB2 hoping to strike gold, and that's just not going to happen. While LJ looks safe on KC's roster after they inexplicably did nothing to upgrade their RB position, new coach Todd Haley will likely use him similar to how he used Edgerrin James in ARI. He's going to be pulled off the field a decent bit in favor of Jamaal Charles. An alarming stat: LJ was 4/17 on carries inside the 5 yard line. While the offensive line deserves some of the blame, LJ simply isn't what he once was, and he's not going to get the 275-300 carries he'll need to be an every week starter.
26) Darren McFadden
ADP: 52.6 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McFadden is the new starting RB for Oakland.
Overview: McFadden had some pretty bad luck in 2008. Fargas suffered the injury McFadden owners dreamed about in week 2, McFadden torched the Chiefs for 164 rushing yards, and then later that game he suffered a toe injury that limited him for the rest of the season. McFadden now has the starting job, but Fargas and Michael Bush remain on the roster, so it's not his all to himself. That's not a bad thing as I don't view McFadden as a 300 carry RB. As long as Oakland caters to his versatility in the passing game while giving him 15-20 touches a game, McFadden looks like a solid RB2 for 2009.
27) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 58.7 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Stewart never took the starting job some people thought he would in 2008 thanks to the re-dedication of similarly talented DeAngelo Williams. Stewart will return as the lesser committee member in 2009, but that's only if he can get himself back onto the field. An Achillies injury has eliminated most of his offseason, and he's still not back at practice, much less playing in games. Let someone else roll the dice with him as their RB3.
28) Chris Wells
ADP: 63.3 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Wells is the new starting RB in Arizona.
Overview: Wells was a player to watch this preseason, but he hasn't even been on the field yet. He is slated to receive some playing time in the 3rd week of the preseason, so we'll finally be able to watch a bit of him then. He's missed a decent portion of camp with various injuries, which was common for Wells in college as well. He still has a ton of upside, but he's obviously injury prone and probably not suited to be a workhorse. Tim Hightower has improved, so this is looking like a committee attack, at least to start the season. He's still worth speculation, but he comes with more risk than originally thought.
29) Willie Parker
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Nate Washington.
Overview: I think Willie Parker slots in as nothing more than a decent RB3 this year, and there's more downside than upside. He disappointed owners with injuries last season after a hot start, and with RB Rashard Mendenhall returning to presumably a bigger role than he was slated for last season, Parker's value is on the way down. Not only will he split time with Mendenhall, but Mendenhall also projects to be on the field for the money downs (passing, goal line). Parker should go back to his role in 2005 as an early down runner, and if he's effective in that role, he should be a decent bye week fill-in. I'd rather avoid the Steelers backfield this year.
30) LenDale White
ADP: 72.9 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: White made up for his decreased role by scoring 15 times last season, although that made him rather risky knowing that he was worthless unless he scored. His touches are set to decrease with the expected increased usage of Chris Johnson, and furthermore, he's dropped weight this offseason. Given he was a power back and isn't going to suddenly gain a bunch of speed with the weight loss, one has to wonder what effect that will have on his limited skill set. White is best as an RB4 and handcuff for CJ owners than a standalone bye week fill-in.
31) Cedric Benson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Laveraneus Coles, released TJ Houshmandzadeh.
Overview: Benson was somewhat of a revelation in Cincy last year, posting several 100 yard games after becoming the starting RB in Cincy. Benson isn't fast and doesn't catch passes, but if he runs with the same renewed dedication as last year, he can last as a 1st/2nd down RB, and he'll score a decent amount of TDs behind the Cincy passing game. He can be a lesser version of Rudi Johnson in his prime, and that's worth having on your bench as an RB3. There's certainly no one behind him who would be a threat to his job.
32) Felix Jones
ADP: 80.5 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Felix Jones showed just how dangerous he can be last season in the short time he played prior to missing the rest of the season with injuries (torn hamstring, torn toe ligament). There's a decent chance that Felix Jones steps until Julius Jones' former role in the Dallas offense, which would give him a good number of touches. Barber will still dominate the money downs, but Jones should get the ball enough to be a decent bye week fill-in. He has huge upside should Barber go down again.
33) Donald Brown
ADP: 84.7 (7th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Brown is the new backup RB for Indy.
Overview: Brown is essentially a more explosive version of Joseph Addai. Brown looks like he'll be the lesser version of a RB committee, much like Addai was in his first season, which means he'll have some good games as well as some games where he doesn't get enough touches to start. All in all, this makes him a solid RB3 with the upside for more...an ideal RB3 candidate.
34) Darren Sproles
ADP: 89.1 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Sproles had his coming out party in the playoffs last season when he posted 105 rushing yards and 2 TDs in week 1 of the playoffs, and then he followed that up with 91 receiving yards and 1 TD in week 2 of the playoffs. That sort of versatility shows how valuable he can be, although nobody seems to think he can last as a featured RB, and I tend to agree. Regardless, while Norv Turner seems to think LT will get 320 carries again, it's way up in the air as to whether or not he will, and also whether he can hold up doing that again. As it stands right now, assume Sproles will be a solid handcuff with the potential for a large role should LT goes down, but I'm not sure what type of bye week fill-in value he'll have as LT's backup. More should be known closer to the season.
35) Willis McGahee
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'm going to keep this short. McGahee had yet another offseason surgery, supposed to both his knee and ankle, and he's likely to fall to 3rd on the depth chart. Ray Rice will probably start, and LeRon McClain will probably keep short down/goal line duties. Avoid at anything more than an unexciting RB4.
36) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded TE Kellen Winslow.
Overview: Jamal Lewis posted workman-like, veteran RB stats for a crappy offense last year. He posted 1000 yards, but never ran for 100 yards in a single game, and he only scored 4 TDs. That will likely be his absolute best case scenario as Cleveland finally seems intent on getting explosive backup James Harrison more involved. Lewis will still get the goal line carries, but he's just not going to see enough carries to be anything more than a RB3, and at that price, I'd rather take a shot at a younger option with a higher upside than a declining vet who's a candidate to break down.
ADP: 52.5 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Matt Cassel is the new starting QB.
Overview: For the 2nd straight year, the wheels came off of LJ's season. He teased owners with a couple big games early on, however he crashed back down to Earth prior to legal troubles destroying the rest of his season. Appropriately, LJ has crashed into late RB2/early RB3 status. Odds are someone will draft him as an RB2 hoping to strike gold, and that's just not going to happen. While LJ looks safe on KC's roster after they inexplicably did nothing to upgrade their RB position, new coach Todd Haley will likely use him similar to how he used Edgerrin James in ARI. He's going to be pulled off the field a decent bit in favor of Jamaal Charles. An alarming stat: LJ was 4/17 on carries inside the 5 yard line. While the offensive line deserves some of the blame, LJ simply isn't what he once was, and he's not going to get the 275-300 carries he'll need to be an every week starter.
26) Darren McFadden
ADP: 52.6 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McFadden is the new starting RB for Oakland.
Overview: McFadden had some pretty bad luck in 2008. Fargas suffered the injury McFadden owners dreamed about in week 2, McFadden torched the Chiefs for 164 rushing yards, and then later that game he suffered a toe injury that limited him for the rest of the season. McFadden now has the starting job, but Fargas and Michael Bush remain on the roster, so it's not his all to himself. That's not a bad thing as I don't view McFadden as a 300 carry RB. As long as Oakland caters to his versatility in the passing game while giving him 15-20 touches a game, McFadden looks like a solid RB2 for 2009.
27) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 58.7 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Stewart never took the starting job some people thought he would in 2008 thanks to the re-dedication of similarly talented DeAngelo Williams. Stewart will return as the lesser committee member in 2009, but that's only if he can get himself back onto the field. An Achillies injury has eliminated most of his offseason, and he's still not back at practice, much less playing in games. Let someone else roll the dice with him as their RB3.
28) Chris Wells
ADP: 63.3 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Wells is the new starting RB in Arizona.
Overview: Wells was a player to watch this preseason, but he hasn't even been on the field yet. He is slated to receive some playing time in the 3rd week of the preseason, so we'll finally be able to watch a bit of him then. He's missed a decent portion of camp with various injuries, which was common for Wells in college as well. He still has a ton of upside, but he's obviously injury prone and probably not suited to be a workhorse. Tim Hightower has improved, so this is looking like a committee attack, at least to start the season. He's still worth speculation, but he comes with more risk than originally thought.
29) Willie Parker
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Nate Washington.
Overview: I think Willie Parker slots in as nothing more than a decent RB3 this year, and there's more downside than upside. He disappointed owners with injuries last season after a hot start, and with RB Rashard Mendenhall returning to presumably a bigger role than he was slated for last season, Parker's value is on the way down. Not only will he split time with Mendenhall, but Mendenhall also projects to be on the field for the money downs (passing, goal line). Parker should go back to his role in 2005 as an early down runner, and if he's effective in that role, he should be a decent bye week fill-in. I'd rather avoid the Steelers backfield this year.
30) LenDale White
ADP: 72.9 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: White made up for his decreased role by scoring 15 times last season, although that made him rather risky knowing that he was worthless unless he scored. His touches are set to decrease with the expected increased usage of Chris Johnson, and furthermore, he's dropped weight this offseason. Given he was a power back and isn't going to suddenly gain a bunch of speed with the weight loss, one has to wonder what effect that will have on his limited skill set. White is best as an RB4 and handcuff for CJ owners than a standalone bye week fill-in.
31) Cedric Benson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Laveraneus Coles, released TJ Houshmandzadeh.
Overview: Benson was somewhat of a revelation in Cincy last year, posting several 100 yard games after becoming the starting RB in Cincy. Benson isn't fast and doesn't catch passes, but if he runs with the same renewed dedication as last year, he can last as a 1st/2nd down RB, and he'll score a decent amount of TDs behind the Cincy passing game. He can be a lesser version of Rudi Johnson in his prime, and that's worth having on your bench as an RB3. There's certainly no one behind him who would be a threat to his job.
32) Felix Jones
ADP: 80.5 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Felix Jones showed just how dangerous he can be last season in the short time he played prior to missing the rest of the season with injuries (torn hamstring, torn toe ligament). There's a decent chance that Felix Jones steps until Julius Jones' former role in the Dallas offense, which would give him a good number of touches. Barber will still dominate the money downs, but Jones should get the ball enough to be a decent bye week fill-in. He has huge upside should Barber go down again.
33) Donald Brown
ADP: 84.7 (7th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Brown is the new backup RB for Indy.
Overview: Brown is essentially a more explosive version of Joseph Addai. Brown looks like he'll be the lesser version of a RB committee, much like Addai was in his first season, which means he'll have some good games as well as some games where he doesn't get enough touches to start. All in all, this makes him a solid RB3 with the upside for more...an ideal RB3 candidate.
34) Darren Sproles
ADP: 89.1 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Sproles had his coming out party in the playoffs last season when he posted 105 rushing yards and 2 TDs in week 1 of the playoffs, and then he followed that up with 91 receiving yards and 1 TD in week 2 of the playoffs. That sort of versatility shows how valuable he can be, although nobody seems to think he can last as a featured RB, and I tend to agree. Regardless, while Norv Turner seems to think LT will get 320 carries again, it's way up in the air as to whether or not he will, and also whether he can hold up doing that again. As it stands right now, assume Sproles will be a solid handcuff with the potential for a large role should LT goes down, but I'm not sure what type of bye week fill-in value he'll have as LT's backup. More should be known closer to the season.
35) Willis McGahee
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'm going to keep this short. McGahee had yet another offseason surgery, supposed to both his knee and ankle, and he's likely to fall to 3rd on the depth chart. Ray Rice will probably start, and LeRon McClain will probably keep short down/goal line duties. Avoid at anything more than an unexciting RB4.
36) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded TE Kellen Winslow.
Overview: Jamal Lewis posted workman-like, veteran RB stats for a crappy offense last year. He posted 1000 yards, but never ran for 100 yards in a single game, and he only scored 4 TDs. That will likely be his absolute best case scenario as Cleveland finally seems intent on getting explosive backup James Harrison more involved. Lewis will still get the goal line carries, but he's just not going to see enough carries to be anything more than a RB3, and at that price, I'd rather take a shot at a younger option with a higher upside than a declining vet who's a candidate to break down.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
2009 RB2 Value Analysis
13) Clinton Portis
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Portis blew out of the gates with the best stats since his Denver days, but unfortunately it took an insane workload to get him there, and he broke down in the 2nd half. Portis, like Tomlinson and Westbrook ahead of him, is a candidate to break down this year. He's had a lot of carries in his career, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. He also plays for behind a below average offensive line with a stagnant offense. He could post workmanlike numbers again, but fits better as a RB2 at this stage than a RB1. Ultimately, I'd MUCH rather wait til round 3 to grab Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.
14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 16.6 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress.
Overview: Well, we certainly know what we're getting with Brandon Jacobs at this stage. He's going to maul defenses when healthy, he's going to score touchdowns, and he's going to miss a few games. The offense will miss Burress stretching the field, but are counting on their young WRs to pick up the slack. It also remains to be seen if Ahmad Bradshaw can pick up the change-of-pace role that Derrick Ward played so admirably last season. Running behind one of the best lines in football and supported by a great defense, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not chugging along at the same pace he's set the past two seasons. Just beware of the injury risk and don't count on 16 games. He's a borderline RB1 when healthy.
15) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 29.4 (3rd round, 5th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ronnie Brown made headlines with his 4 TD outburst in week 5 out of the Wildcat formation, followed that up with a 24/125/1TD line in week 6, then curious only received 20 carries in one game after that while essentially splitting time with Ricky Williams. I'm still a huge proponent of Ronnie Brown, and I think you'll see the best of him in 2009. He'll be almost 2 years removed from his ACL surgery, so he should get some explosion back. It's hard to imagine the now 32 year old Ricky Williams spending as much time on the field as he did last season, so I expect him to move into more of a backup role while Brown returns as the lead RB. Brown is safest as an RB2 because his exact workload is undetermined, but I think he has an RB1 season in him for 2009.
16) Pierre Thomas
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: Thomas had a coming out party on the last game of the season at Chicago in 2007, but wasn't guaranteed a role on a clustered RB depth chart for the Saints before earning one as McAllister was phased out of the offense. Thomas took it and ran, posting RB1 numbers between weeks 11 and 16. The Saints flirted with drafting Chris Wells and signing veteran RBs in the offseason, but ultimately did nothing and will head into the 2009 season with Thomas as their primary ball carrier. Reggie Bush remains, but appears to be heading back to a change-of-pace RB/WR, plus he's coming off of major knee surgery. If Thomas can hold up during his first run as a primary RB, there's no question he has the skills and surrounding offense necessary to be a RB1. Like Ronnie Brown, he's safer as a RB, but his upside is huge
17) Ryan Grant
ADP: 35.0 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ryan Grant doesn't have an admirable skill set as he doesn't catch passes and isn't productive in short yardage, but thanks to his surrounding offense and the lack of a bruiser behind him on the depth chart, he manages to post solid RB2 numbers. After teasing owners with great RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he regressed to the mean in 2008, and his lack of TDs is moreso a reflection of his poor short yardage skills than bad luck. Expect more of the same in 2009 for Grant, and he's a reasonably safe, unexciting RB2. I'd rather take a 2nd WR.
18) Thomas Jones
ADP: 35.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Mark Sanchez, drafted RB Shonn Greene, released WR Laveraneus Coles
Overview: TJ is on the ole avoid list. While the Jets are set up to be a great rushing team again behind a good offensve line, Jones is turning 31 before the season, is coming off of 4 straight 300ish carry seasons, will battle for carries between both the more explosive Leon Washington and the younger Shonn Greene, and will have a rookie QB leading the offense. I still fully expect him to start, but his role is guaranteed to decrease on what projects to be a less explosive offense.
19) Kevin Smith
ADP: 36.4 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Matthew Stafford, signed WR Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Kevin Smith inexplicably lost his job for a bit to the washed up Rudi Johnson last year, but that was just one of many boneheaded decisions by the first coaching staff to lead an NFL team to an 0-16 season. Smith closed strong, posting borderline RB1 numbers from week 10 onwards. He still has an iffy line in front of him, and the prospects of Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford starting at QB isn't enticing, but he produced very well down the stretch with the same team last year, and we can't ignore that. He's a well-rounded RB who runs hard and should produce 2nd round numbers at a 3rd round price. I'd rather have him than Portis, Grant, or Jones as my RB2.
20) Reggie Bush
ADP: 42.1 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Pierre Thomas is the new starting RB.
Overview: Reggie Bush was off to his best season fantasy-wise of his career prior to a knee injury, but that was mostly because of his great receiving talent and not because of positive strides running the football. After 3 seasons with no improvement, the Saints have moved Pierre Thomas to the primary ball carrier position, and expect Reggie Bush to see less carries while maintaining his receiving value. The other negative against Bush is how well he'll recover his speed and explosiveness coming off of serious offseason knee surgery, which is essentially what allows him to have fantasy value. Given all of this, I'd like Bush much better as a 3rd RB than someone I plug into my lineup every week. His exact role is uncertain at this time.
21) Joseph Addai
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Donald Brown, release WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Just as his 2nd half slide in 2007 indicated, Addai simply is not a feature RB. He sustains too many injuries that require him to come out of games or miss them altogether. He disappointed yet again in 2008, and with Dominic Rhodes leaving once more, they have drafted rookie RB Donald Brown. The Colts have been at their best in the post-Edge era by using a full-out committee, and with the more explosive and equally cerebral Brown now aboard, I expect them to employ the same strategy this year. Addai's experience will give him the edge in carries this year, but Addai is going to be an iffy weekly play.
22) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 47.3 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Marshawn Lynch got himself into more trouble this offseason, and as a result he will serve a 3 game suspension to start 2009. This is real trouble because often times backup RB Fred Jackson looked like the better RB in 2008. Jackson will be given a chance to carry the full load for the first 3 games, and there's a good chance he'll work himself into a timeshare, especially with the added benefit of Terrell Owens helping make the offense more explosive. I don't like drafting a 2nd RB likely in fight for playing time, especially with a 3 game disadvantage. I still think Lynch will get more carries than Jackson when he returns, but will it be enough to make him an every week starter? Odds say no. Lynch would be great as a RB3, but not as a RB2. Let someone else go RB2 on him in the 4th round.
23) Derrick Ward
ADP: 48.5 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Ward is the new starting RB for Tampa Bay.
Overview: Ward essentially moves from 1 timeshare to another, but this time he'll be the lead back. Ward will be 29 when the season starts, but has far less tread on his tires than most 29 year old starting RBs. Some will argue that this will be a straight 50/50 split with incumbant Earnest Graham, and it's actually starting to shape up that way. I originally thought that TB didn't spend all that money on Ward to only put him on the field 50% of the time, but they're talking about a 2-2-1 split with Ward, Graham, and Cadillac. It would certainly give the Bucs some diversity, but it seems ridiculous that their most talented RB would only be on the field 2/5 series. It hurts Ward a bit, and he's now a dicey RB2 pick.
24) Knowshon Moreno
ADP: 51.4 (5th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Moreno is the new starting RB for Denver.
Overview: Moreno hasn't officially won the starting job yet, but everything indicates that he will be starting in week 1. Moreno was the best all-around back to come out of the NFL draft in 2009, and he landed in a great situation as he only has guys like Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to beat out. The only knock against Moreno's skill set is the lack of breakaway speed, but that's not necessary in McDaniels' offense. His offensive line is very good, Orton will lead a solid passing game to keep guys out of the box, and their WRs are dangerous. The only thing holding me back from being very excited about Moreno is that New England used a multiple back system for years, and while Moreno has the skill set to be a true lead backs, odds are that Buckhalter and maybe even Jordan will see time on the field as well. Moreno is a recommended RB2, but not before the 5th round.
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Portis blew out of the gates with the best stats since his Denver days, but unfortunately it took an insane workload to get him there, and he broke down in the 2nd half. Portis, like Tomlinson and Westbrook ahead of him, is a candidate to break down this year. He's had a lot of carries in his career, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. He also plays for behind a below average offensive line with a stagnant offense. He could post workmanlike numbers again, but fits better as a RB2 at this stage than a RB1. Ultimately, I'd MUCH rather wait til round 3 to grab Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.
14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 16.6 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress.
Overview: Well, we certainly know what we're getting with Brandon Jacobs at this stage. He's going to maul defenses when healthy, he's going to score touchdowns, and he's going to miss a few games. The offense will miss Burress stretching the field, but are counting on their young WRs to pick up the slack. It also remains to be seen if Ahmad Bradshaw can pick up the change-of-pace role that Derrick Ward played so admirably last season. Running behind one of the best lines in football and supported by a great defense, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not chugging along at the same pace he's set the past two seasons. Just beware of the injury risk and don't count on 16 games. He's a borderline RB1 when healthy.
15) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 29.4 (3rd round, 5th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ronnie Brown made headlines with his 4 TD outburst in week 5 out of the Wildcat formation, followed that up with a 24/125/1TD line in week 6, then curious only received 20 carries in one game after that while essentially splitting time with Ricky Williams. I'm still a huge proponent of Ronnie Brown, and I think you'll see the best of him in 2009. He'll be almost 2 years removed from his ACL surgery, so he should get some explosion back. It's hard to imagine the now 32 year old Ricky Williams spending as much time on the field as he did last season, so I expect him to move into more of a backup role while Brown returns as the lead RB. Brown is safest as an RB2 because his exact workload is undetermined, but I think he has an RB1 season in him for 2009.
16) Pierre Thomas
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: Thomas had a coming out party on the last game of the season at Chicago in 2007, but wasn't guaranteed a role on a clustered RB depth chart for the Saints before earning one as McAllister was phased out of the offense. Thomas took it and ran, posting RB1 numbers between weeks 11 and 16. The Saints flirted with drafting Chris Wells and signing veteran RBs in the offseason, but ultimately did nothing and will head into the 2009 season with Thomas as their primary ball carrier. Reggie Bush remains, but appears to be heading back to a change-of-pace RB/WR, plus he's coming off of major knee surgery. If Thomas can hold up during his first run as a primary RB, there's no question he has the skills and surrounding offense necessary to be a RB1. Like Ronnie Brown, he's safer as a RB, but his upside is huge
17) Ryan Grant
ADP: 35.0 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ryan Grant doesn't have an admirable skill set as he doesn't catch passes and isn't productive in short yardage, but thanks to his surrounding offense and the lack of a bruiser behind him on the depth chart, he manages to post solid RB2 numbers. After teasing owners with great RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he regressed to the mean in 2008, and his lack of TDs is moreso a reflection of his poor short yardage skills than bad luck. Expect more of the same in 2009 for Grant, and he's a reasonably safe, unexciting RB2. I'd rather take a 2nd WR.
18) Thomas Jones
ADP: 35.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Mark Sanchez, drafted RB Shonn Greene, released WR Laveraneus Coles
Overview: TJ is on the ole avoid list. While the Jets are set up to be a great rushing team again behind a good offensve line, Jones is turning 31 before the season, is coming off of 4 straight 300ish carry seasons, will battle for carries between both the more explosive Leon Washington and the younger Shonn Greene, and will have a rookie QB leading the offense. I still fully expect him to start, but his role is guaranteed to decrease on what projects to be a less explosive offense.
19) Kevin Smith
ADP: 36.4 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Matthew Stafford, signed WR Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Kevin Smith inexplicably lost his job for a bit to the washed up Rudi Johnson last year, but that was just one of many boneheaded decisions by the first coaching staff to lead an NFL team to an 0-16 season. Smith closed strong, posting borderline RB1 numbers from week 10 onwards. He still has an iffy line in front of him, and the prospects of Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford starting at QB isn't enticing, but he produced very well down the stretch with the same team last year, and we can't ignore that. He's a well-rounded RB who runs hard and should produce 2nd round numbers at a 3rd round price. I'd rather have him than Portis, Grant, or Jones as my RB2.
20) Reggie Bush
ADP: 42.1 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Pierre Thomas is the new starting RB.
Overview: Reggie Bush was off to his best season fantasy-wise of his career prior to a knee injury, but that was mostly because of his great receiving talent and not because of positive strides running the football. After 3 seasons with no improvement, the Saints have moved Pierre Thomas to the primary ball carrier position, and expect Reggie Bush to see less carries while maintaining his receiving value. The other negative against Bush is how well he'll recover his speed and explosiveness coming off of serious offseason knee surgery, which is essentially what allows him to have fantasy value. Given all of this, I'd like Bush much better as a 3rd RB than someone I plug into my lineup every week. His exact role is uncertain at this time.
21) Joseph Addai
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Donald Brown, release WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Just as his 2nd half slide in 2007 indicated, Addai simply is not a feature RB. He sustains too many injuries that require him to come out of games or miss them altogether. He disappointed yet again in 2008, and with Dominic Rhodes leaving once more, they have drafted rookie RB Donald Brown. The Colts have been at their best in the post-Edge era by using a full-out committee, and with the more explosive and equally cerebral Brown now aboard, I expect them to employ the same strategy this year. Addai's experience will give him the edge in carries this year, but Addai is going to be an iffy weekly play.
22) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 47.3 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Marshawn Lynch got himself into more trouble this offseason, and as a result he will serve a 3 game suspension to start 2009. This is real trouble because often times backup RB Fred Jackson looked like the better RB in 2008. Jackson will be given a chance to carry the full load for the first 3 games, and there's a good chance he'll work himself into a timeshare, especially with the added benefit of Terrell Owens helping make the offense more explosive. I don't like drafting a 2nd RB likely in fight for playing time, especially with a 3 game disadvantage. I still think Lynch will get more carries than Jackson when he returns, but will it be enough to make him an every week starter? Odds say no. Lynch would be great as a RB3, but not as a RB2. Let someone else go RB2 on him in the 4th round.
23) Derrick Ward
ADP: 48.5 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Ward is the new starting RB for Tampa Bay.
Overview: Ward essentially moves from 1 timeshare to another, but this time he'll be the lead back. Ward will be 29 when the season starts, but has far less tread on his tires than most 29 year old starting RBs. Some will argue that this will be a straight 50/50 split with incumbant Earnest Graham, and it's actually starting to shape up that way. I originally thought that TB didn't spend all that money on Ward to only put him on the field 50% of the time, but they're talking about a 2-2-1 split with Ward, Graham, and Cadillac. It would certainly give the Bucs some diversity, but it seems ridiculous that their most talented RB would only be on the field 2/5 series. It hurts Ward a bit, and he's now a dicey RB2 pick.
24) Knowshon Moreno
ADP: 51.4 (5th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Moreno is the new starting RB for Denver.
Overview: Moreno hasn't officially won the starting job yet, but everything indicates that he will be starting in week 1. Moreno was the best all-around back to come out of the NFL draft in 2009, and he landed in a great situation as he only has guys like Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to beat out. The only knock against Moreno's skill set is the lack of breakaway speed, but that's not necessary in McDaniels' offense. His offensive line is very good, Orton will lead a solid passing game to keep guys out of the box, and their WRs are dangerous. The only thing holding me back from being very excited about Moreno is that New England used a multiple back system for years, and while Moreno has the skill set to be a true lead backs, odds are that Buckhalter and maybe even Jordan will see time on the field as well. Moreno is a recommended RB2, but not before the 5th round.
2009 RB1 Value Analysis
1) Adrian Peterson
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year. He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.
2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.
3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.
5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.
Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.
6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age. I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.
7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year. With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared. DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point. He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.
8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.
Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.
9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role. However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line. He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.
10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.
Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead. If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.
11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.
Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys. I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.
12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year. He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.
2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.
3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.
5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.
Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.
6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age. I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.
7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year. With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared. DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point. He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.
8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.
Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.
9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role. However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line. He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.
10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.
Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead. If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.
11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.
Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys. I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.
12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.
2009 QB2 Value Analysis
13) Carson Palmer
ADP: 90.1 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, signed WR Laveranues Coles
Overview: How the mighty have fallen, which is the perfect opportunity for value. Carson Palmer is my value pick of the year for quarterbacks. He's being drafted as a very late QB1, or a QB2 in some instances. Palmer is not without risk as his exact elbow injury is still a mystery, but he's proclaimed himself 100%, and if he looks good in the preseason, jump on him. Housh has left, but he's been replaced by Coles, who boasts a similar skillset and toughness. Add in the rumored maturity and re-dedication of Chris Henry, and the expected emergence of Andre Caldwell, and Palmer still has an enviable setting of passing game weapons. Benson isn't going to be lighting the world on fire in the backfield, so Cincy will pass plenty. Ensure that you get a reliable backup given the uncertain nature of his elbow injury, but go get Palmer this year.
14) Matt Cassel
ADP: 101.4 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Cassel is the new starting QB of the Chiefs.
Overview: I don't like Cassel as a QB1 this year. Some may look at his body of work last year, especially down the stretch, and assume that Cassel is a breakout candidate. The good thing for Cassel is that he'll be playing in a similar spread offense as KC's new coach Todd Haley often employed the same scheme last season. The bad thing is that this is not New England's passing talent. KC has a rebuilding offensive line, an aging LJ in the backfield, and little receiving talent to support Dwayne Bowe. They also traded Tony Gonzalez, a huge loss for the passing game. Cassel should have some good games, but I think he'll prove too unreliable to start every week.
15) Eli Manning
ADP: 108.7 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks, released RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Eli has now lost his top two receiving targets in successive seasons. Luckily for the Giants, their offensive line and running game remain elite. There is a positive, and that's the young talent they do boast in the passing game, but they are without a single proven talent at the position. Dominick Hixon has been a solid deep threat thus far, Steve Smith is an emerging possession receiver, and both Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks offer a lot of talent. If two of these receivers can take a step forward this season, Eli should be a solid QB2. The nature of the Giants run-first offense simply doesn't allow for much fantasy potential, but a Brandon Jacobs injury would change that.
16) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 109.1 (9th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, released RB Maurice Morris
Overview: Hasselbeck suffered through an injury-prone 2008, and he turns 34 when the season starts. Housh finally offers him a reliable #1 WR, but Housh simply isn't a true #1 WR. Deion Branch is returning from yet another knee injury, and they still have the same mess of unproven WRs behind those top two. One bright spot is John Carlson, who finally gives Seattle a great weapon at the TE position in the passing game. Let someone else grab an aging, injury-prone QB with average passing game weapons.
17) David Garrard
ADP: 120.0 (10th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Torry Holt, released WR Jerry Porter, released WR Matt Jones, released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Garrard is what he is...a decent QB2 with little upside and little downside. Jacksonville gets most of their offensive line back along with adding two talented youngsters in the draft. MJD is an all-around stud in the backfield. Holt is a nice, reliable addition, but he's no longer the deep threat stud he's been in the past. Mike Walker is talented, but has dealt with knee injuries his entire career. Matt Jones is a loss as Garrard built a nice chemistry with him last season and he provided a tall deep threat. Jacksonville re-fueled with younsters in the draft, but none project to make an immediate impact. If Walker can stay healthy, Garrard could have the most reliable weapons of his career, but that's a big if.
18) Kyle Orton
ADP: 126.6 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Orton is the new starting QB of the Denver Broncos.
Overview: Orton is an excellent QB2 this year. Orton showed fringe QB1 value with the Bears last season prior to an ankle injury derailing his season, and that was pretty impressive with the lack of passing weapons he had at his disposal. Now he has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and possibly Tony Scheffler if DEN decides to use him. Denver also drafted Knowshon Moreno who is proficient in the passing game. Orton might have gotten a bad rap in Chicago, and he didn't really have ideal arm strength, but his intelligence and accuracy will play well in Denver's new offense.
19) Trent Edwards
ADP: 145.7 (13th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Edwards hit the jackpot, on the surface, when the Bills added Terrell Owens. Owens has a nice history of behaving in his 1st season on a new team, but Buffalo could be different as Owens begins to decline, and as the offense won't be all about him in the passing game. He will now have to share targets with Lee Evans, and Edwards doesn't have the big arm that both McNabb and Romo do. Buffalo also loves to run the ball, so Owens won't see a boatload of targets. Edwards is certainly worth the risk as a QB2 with such a dynamic WR duo, and with both Lynch and Fred Jackson, who possess passing game value out of the backfield.
20) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 146.1 (13th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Delhomme decided to turn in the worst game of his career when the Panthers needed him most against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That probably left a sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths, and as well it should. Delhomme continues to age, and after being a popular sleeper last year, he proved yet again that he's nothing more than a QB2. Carolina boasts little opposite Steve Smith, and they remain committed to running the ball with 2 great talents in the backfield. It's a shame as both Williams and Stewart could be proficient in the passing game if they were used more, but Delhomme is someone to draft only if he has a solid matchup the week your stud is on bye.
21) Joe Flacco
ADP: 177.4 (15th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to Matt Ryan, Flacco's similarly impressive rookie season went somewhat under the radar. It's true that Flacco was supported by an elite defense and a great rushing attack, but he showed excellent poise in big situations, and he certainly showed off his big arm when called upon. He should continue to improve in the 2nd season, but thanks to the run-first offense, losing Derrick Mason, and a lack of other passing game weapons, Flacco won't be much more than a blah QB2 this season.
22) Marc Bulger
ADP: 178.6 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, released WR Drew Bennett.
Overview: I'll keep this short. His starting receivers are Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton. He's nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel backup QB.
23) Chad Pennington
ADP: 182.0 (16th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Miami has some interesting young talent at WR with Ted Ginn and Davone Bess, but they will remain a run-first team. Pennington's arm continues to get weaker, and he has Chad Henne nipping at his heels. Pass.
24) Jason Campbell
ADP: 187.0 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Campbell was a disaster last season, but he's going to be plenty motivated to recover in his contract season. The other good thing going for him is that this will be his 2nd season in Jim Zorn's offense as offensive system stability has not been a part of Campbell's past dating back to college. Campbell remains a talented young QB, but whether or not he's a good WCO fit is very much up in the air. He's a good upside QB2 to take for those who have already drafted an elite option, and I'd rather have him than guys like Pennington, Bulger, etc.
Other QBs To Keep An Eye On:
Brett Favre - Favre has joined the Vikings finally, and he should prove to be a reasonable QB2 with a bit of upside. He has great downfield weapons in Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sydney Rice with one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him, and needless to say an elite RB behind him in Adrian Peterson. His slightly torn rotator cuff scares me a bit at his age, but he should be pretty reliable to pair with someone like Schaub or Palmer.
Brady Quinn - Quinn is expected to win the starting job for the Browns, but that's not set in stone yet. With little outside of Braylon Edwards to throw to, he doesn't possess the weapons necessary to be a total sleeper, but he's also someone to take a chance on to see how he fares if he wins the job.
Alex Smith/Shaun Hill - Another QB battle, this time in SF. This will be a conservative offense that revolves around Frank Gore, but with Josh Morgan, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, SF boasts good talent at the receiving positions that would make whoever starts a reasonable QB2 option.
ADP: 90.1 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, signed WR Laveranues Coles
Overview: How the mighty have fallen, which is the perfect opportunity for value. Carson Palmer is my value pick of the year for quarterbacks. He's being drafted as a very late QB1, or a QB2 in some instances. Palmer is not without risk as his exact elbow injury is still a mystery, but he's proclaimed himself 100%, and if he looks good in the preseason, jump on him. Housh has left, but he's been replaced by Coles, who boasts a similar skillset and toughness. Add in the rumored maturity and re-dedication of Chris Henry, and the expected emergence of Andre Caldwell, and Palmer still has an enviable setting of passing game weapons. Benson isn't going to be lighting the world on fire in the backfield, so Cincy will pass plenty. Ensure that you get a reliable backup given the uncertain nature of his elbow injury, but go get Palmer this year.
14) Matt Cassel
ADP: 101.4 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Cassel is the new starting QB of the Chiefs.
Overview: I don't like Cassel as a QB1 this year. Some may look at his body of work last year, especially down the stretch, and assume that Cassel is a breakout candidate. The good thing for Cassel is that he'll be playing in a similar spread offense as KC's new coach Todd Haley often employed the same scheme last season. The bad thing is that this is not New England's passing talent. KC has a rebuilding offensive line, an aging LJ in the backfield, and little receiving talent to support Dwayne Bowe. They also traded Tony Gonzalez, a huge loss for the passing game. Cassel should have some good games, but I think he'll prove too unreliable to start every week.
15) Eli Manning
ADP: 108.7 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks, released RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Eli has now lost his top two receiving targets in successive seasons. Luckily for the Giants, their offensive line and running game remain elite. There is a positive, and that's the young talent they do boast in the passing game, but they are without a single proven talent at the position. Dominick Hixon has been a solid deep threat thus far, Steve Smith is an emerging possession receiver, and both Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks offer a lot of talent. If two of these receivers can take a step forward this season, Eli should be a solid QB2. The nature of the Giants run-first offense simply doesn't allow for much fantasy potential, but a Brandon Jacobs injury would change that.
16) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 109.1 (9th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, released RB Maurice Morris
Overview: Hasselbeck suffered through an injury-prone 2008, and he turns 34 when the season starts. Housh finally offers him a reliable #1 WR, but Housh simply isn't a true #1 WR. Deion Branch is returning from yet another knee injury, and they still have the same mess of unproven WRs behind those top two. One bright spot is John Carlson, who finally gives Seattle a great weapon at the TE position in the passing game. Let someone else grab an aging, injury-prone QB with average passing game weapons.
17) David Garrard
ADP: 120.0 (10th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Torry Holt, released WR Jerry Porter, released WR Matt Jones, released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Garrard is what he is...a decent QB2 with little upside and little downside. Jacksonville gets most of their offensive line back along with adding two talented youngsters in the draft. MJD is an all-around stud in the backfield. Holt is a nice, reliable addition, but he's no longer the deep threat stud he's been in the past. Mike Walker is talented, but has dealt with knee injuries his entire career. Matt Jones is a loss as Garrard built a nice chemistry with him last season and he provided a tall deep threat. Jacksonville re-fueled with younsters in the draft, but none project to make an immediate impact. If Walker can stay healthy, Garrard could have the most reliable weapons of his career, but that's a big if.
18) Kyle Orton
ADP: 126.6 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Orton is the new starting QB of the Denver Broncos.
Overview: Orton is an excellent QB2 this year. Orton showed fringe QB1 value with the Bears last season prior to an ankle injury derailing his season, and that was pretty impressive with the lack of passing weapons he had at his disposal. Now he has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and possibly Tony Scheffler if DEN decides to use him. Denver also drafted Knowshon Moreno who is proficient in the passing game. Orton might have gotten a bad rap in Chicago, and he didn't really have ideal arm strength, but his intelligence and accuracy will play well in Denver's new offense.
19) Trent Edwards
ADP: 145.7 (13th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Edwards hit the jackpot, on the surface, when the Bills added Terrell Owens. Owens has a nice history of behaving in his 1st season on a new team, but Buffalo could be different as Owens begins to decline, and as the offense won't be all about him in the passing game. He will now have to share targets with Lee Evans, and Edwards doesn't have the big arm that both McNabb and Romo do. Buffalo also loves to run the ball, so Owens won't see a boatload of targets. Edwards is certainly worth the risk as a QB2 with such a dynamic WR duo, and with both Lynch and Fred Jackson, who possess passing game value out of the backfield.
20) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 146.1 (13th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Delhomme decided to turn in the worst game of his career when the Panthers needed him most against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That probably left a sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths, and as well it should. Delhomme continues to age, and after being a popular sleeper last year, he proved yet again that he's nothing more than a QB2. Carolina boasts little opposite Steve Smith, and they remain committed to running the ball with 2 great talents in the backfield. It's a shame as both Williams and Stewart could be proficient in the passing game if they were used more, but Delhomme is someone to draft only if he has a solid matchup the week your stud is on bye.
21) Joe Flacco
ADP: 177.4 (15th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to Matt Ryan, Flacco's similarly impressive rookie season went somewhat under the radar. It's true that Flacco was supported by an elite defense and a great rushing attack, but he showed excellent poise in big situations, and he certainly showed off his big arm when called upon. He should continue to improve in the 2nd season, but thanks to the run-first offense, losing Derrick Mason, and a lack of other passing game weapons, Flacco won't be much more than a blah QB2 this season.
22) Marc Bulger
ADP: 178.6 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, released WR Drew Bennett.
Overview: I'll keep this short. His starting receivers are Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton. He's nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel backup QB.
23) Chad Pennington
ADP: 182.0 (16th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Miami has some interesting young talent at WR with Ted Ginn and Davone Bess, but they will remain a run-first team. Pennington's arm continues to get weaker, and he has Chad Henne nipping at his heels. Pass.
24) Jason Campbell
ADP: 187.0 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Campbell was a disaster last season, but he's going to be plenty motivated to recover in his contract season. The other good thing going for him is that this will be his 2nd season in Jim Zorn's offense as offensive system stability has not been a part of Campbell's past dating back to college. Campbell remains a talented young QB, but whether or not he's a good WCO fit is very much up in the air. He's a good upside QB2 to take for those who have already drafted an elite option, and I'd rather have him than guys like Pennington, Bulger, etc.
Other QBs To Keep An Eye On:
Brett Favre - Favre has joined the Vikings finally, and he should prove to be a reasonable QB2 with a bit of upside. He has great downfield weapons in Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sydney Rice with one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him, and needless to say an elite RB behind him in Adrian Peterson. His slightly torn rotator cuff scares me a bit at his age, but he should be pretty reliable to pair with someone like Schaub or Palmer.
Brady Quinn - Quinn is expected to win the starting job for the Browns, but that's not set in stone yet. With little outside of Braylon Edwards to throw to, he doesn't possess the weapons necessary to be a total sleeper, but he's also someone to take a chance on to see how he fares if he wins the job.
Alex Smith/Shaun Hill - Another QB battle, this time in SF. This will be a conservative offense that revolves around Frank Gore, but with Josh Morgan, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, SF boasts good talent at the receiving positions that would make whoever starts a reasonable QB2 option.
Monday, July 20, 2009
2009 QB1 Value Analysis Review
1) Drew Brees
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 2nd
What Happened: There's really not much to review here. Drew Brees was the consensus #1 FF QB in 2009 drafts, and he finished 2nd. He had a lot of weapons around him, and they mostly stayed healthy, so he gave his owners exactly what they expected this season. There's no reason to think he won't be one of the 2 top QBs off the board next season as well. My preseason value ranking was correct.
2) Tom Brady
Preseason Value: Slightly Overvalued
Final Ranking: 4th
What Happened: For some reason, it seems like Brady slightly disappointed this season, but that's probably because of the lofty expectations that persisted after his monster 2007 season. Even though Brady did start slow despite his excellent preseason, he finished strong and his numbers were there when all was said and done. He did finish 20 points behind the top 3, however. My preseason value ranking was within reason.
3) Peyton Manning
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 3rd
What Happened: Just like Drew Brees, Manning gave his owners exactly what they expected, but it was a shame that the Colts ran away with the AFC so early because he was not startable in week 16. That aside, he was great all season long and was as consistent as anyone. Despite Anthony Gonzalez missing the entire season, youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up in big ways, and Dallas Clark was an absolute monster. My preseason value ranking was correct.
4) Kurt Warner
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 12th
What Happened: Warner actually made it through 16 games, but he often played at less than 100% thanks to his offseason hip surgery. He tossed in some big games, but he was mostly a disappointment, barely finishing as a starting QB in a 12 team league. His age showed and he often lacked zip on his throws. His downfield throwing was a big problem for a chunk of the season. He was a disappointment. My preseason value ranking was correct.
5) Phillip Rivers
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 5th
What Happened: I honestly don't know what the hell I was thinking with Rivers' ranking. Rivers had a great 2008 season coming off of ACL surgery, so he was a year farther removed from that injury, and I had LT ranked low because I felt he was in decline, which should have triggered me to think that Rivers would have another big year without a dominant rushing attack being the focal point of the offensive philosophy. Rivers did exactly what he was expected to do and has solidified himself as a top fantasy QB. My preseason value ranking was definitely incorrect.
6) Tony Romo
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 8th
What Happened: I said this should be interesting, and it was. Romo had a huge week 1, went into the tank for a few weeks without a consistent playmaker, and then Miles Austin happened. Romo, equipped with a TO-like playmaker in Austin, went right back to being a QB1 with lots of upside. Roy Williams even settled into his role as a tertiary target behind Austin and Witten. Romo owners can thank Miles Austin for giving them exactly what they drafted Romo to be. My preseason value ranking was incorrect, thanks to Miles Austin.
7) Aaron Rodgers
Preseason Value: Slightly Undervalued
Final Ranking: 1st
What Happened: Rodgers was an absolute monster this season, spreading the ball around to his vast array of talented receivers, and rarely turning the ball over. What was especially impressive was the fact Rodgers took so many sacks thanks to a shaky offensive line, and he was on the run for the majority of the first half of the season. Thanks to his mobility, he continued to make plays despite being flushed out of the pocket so often. My preseason value ranking was spot-on.
8) Donovan McNabb
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 11th
What Happened: McNabb mostly fulfilled expectations, but thanks to a rib injury that knocked him out of week 1 and kept him out through week 4, his overall stats suffered. Now, McNabb has always been injury-prone, so I should have factored that into his ranking. From week 5 onwards, he only had one game in which he didn't throw at least 1 TD, which is excellent consistency from a QB not drafted among the elite. McNabb met expectations, but did not exceed them, and because of this my preseason value ranking was incorrect.
9) Jay Cutler
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 14th
What Happened: Cutler put up a vomit sandwich in week 1, rebounded with several nice games, and then was mostly unstartable over the rest of the season. Cutler simply lacked passing game weapons with the relentless double teams against new BFF Greg Olsen, and his decision making was absolutely horrid as he tried to force throws into receivers that simply could not make plays for him. This should have been obvious heading into the season, but I think the Bears fan in me wanted to hope other things would happen. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
10) Matt Ryan
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 19th
What Happened: Ryan started off great, but he hit a wall mid-season, and he simply did not meet expectations prior to a turf toe injury derailing the end of his season. His ranking would have been better if not for that injury as it cost him 3 games, but he simply was not a QB1 during the 2nd half of the season, and it didn't help that Michael Turner got hurt and the rushing attack wasn't the same without him. The kid is still a future stud, and if the Falcons can upgrade the 2nd receiver position, he'll be an excellent value in 2010. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
11) Matt Schaub
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 6th
What Happened: Schaub stayed healthy for 16 games and showed the potential he's had all along. Armed with a dangerous set of receiving options in a pass-first offense, Schaub posted great numbers all season long, and he should be here to stay among the elite QB1s for several seasons. Losing Owen Daniels was a big blow, but Schaub rebounded and found other secondary targets down the stretch. My preseason value ranking was correct.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Preseason Value: Appropriately ValuedFinal Ranking: 9th
What Happened: Big Ben found himself in the middle of a pass-first offense for the first time in his career, and he did his best to capitalize on it. Between Holmes, Ward, and Miller, Big Ben had great receiving talent around him, and the Pittsburgh coaching staff realized that by putting the ball in his hands to win games. He posted solid numbers for most of the season and had a monster finish. He was definitely worth his draft slot, and he was a surefire QB1 down the stretch. My preseason value analysis was correct.
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 2nd
What Happened: There's really not much to review here. Drew Brees was the consensus #1 FF QB in 2009 drafts, and he finished 2nd. He had a lot of weapons around him, and they mostly stayed healthy, so he gave his owners exactly what they expected this season. There's no reason to think he won't be one of the 2 top QBs off the board next season as well. My preseason value ranking was correct.
2) Tom Brady
Preseason Value: Slightly Overvalued
Final Ranking: 4th
What Happened: For some reason, it seems like Brady slightly disappointed this season, but that's probably because of the lofty expectations that persisted after his monster 2007 season. Even though Brady did start slow despite his excellent preseason, he finished strong and his numbers were there when all was said and done. He did finish 20 points behind the top 3, however. My preseason value ranking was within reason.
3) Peyton Manning
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 3rd
What Happened: Just like Drew Brees, Manning gave his owners exactly what they expected, but it was a shame that the Colts ran away with the AFC so early because he was not startable in week 16. That aside, he was great all season long and was as consistent as anyone. Despite Anthony Gonzalez missing the entire season, youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up in big ways, and Dallas Clark was an absolute monster. My preseason value ranking was correct.
4) Kurt Warner
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 12th
What Happened: Warner actually made it through 16 games, but he often played at less than 100% thanks to his offseason hip surgery. He tossed in some big games, but he was mostly a disappointment, barely finishing as a starting QB in a 12 team league. His age showed and he often lacked zip on his throws. His downfield throwing was a big problem for a chunk of the season. He was a disappointment. My preseason value ranking was correct.
5) Phillip Rivers
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 5th
What Happened: I honestly don't know what the hell I was thinking with Rivers' ranking. Rivers had a great 2008 season coming off of ACL surgery, so he was a year farther removed from that injury, and I had LT ranked low because I felt he was in decline, which should have triggered me to think that Rivers would have another big year without a dominant rushing attack being the focal point of the offensive philosophy. Rivers did exactly what he was expected to do and has solidified himself as a top fantasy QB. My preseason value ranking was definitely incorrect.
6) Tony Romo
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 8th
What Happened: I said this should be interesting, and it was. Romo had a huge week 1, went into the tank for a few weeks without a consistent playmaker, and then Miles Austin happened. Romo, equipped with a TO-like playmaker in Austin, went right back to being a QB1 with lots of upside. Roy Williams even settled into his role as a tertiary target behind Austin and Witten. Romo owners can thank Miles Austin for giving them exactly what they drafted Romo to be. My preseason value ranking was incorrect, thanks to Miles Austin.
7) Aaron Rodgers
Preseason Value: Slightly Undervalued
Final Ranking: 1st
What Happened: Rodgers was an absolute monster this season, spreading the ball around to his vast array of talented receivers, and rarely turning the ball over. What was especially impressive was the fact Rodgers took so many sacks thanks to a shaky offensive line, and he was on the run for the majority of the first half of the season. Thanks to his mobility, he continued to make plays despite being flushed out of the pocket so often. My preseason value ranking was spot-on.
8) Donovan McNabb
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 11th
What Happened: McNabb mostly fulfilled expectations, but thanks to a rib injury that knocked him out of week 1 and kept him out through week 4, his overall stats suffered. Now, McNabb has always been injury-prone, so I should have factored that into his ranking. From week 5 onwards, he only had one game in which he didn't throw at least 1 TD, which is excellent consistency from a QB not drafted among the elite. McNabb met expectations, but did not exceed them, and because of this my preseason value ranking was incorrect.
9) Jay Cutler
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 14th
What Happened: Cutler put up a vomit sandwich in week 1, rebounded with several nice games, and then was mostly unstartable over the rest of the season. Cutler simply lacked passing game weapons with the relentless double teams against new BFF Greg Olsen, and his decision making was absolutely horrid as he tried to force throws into receivers that simply could not make plays for him. This should have been obvious heading into the season, but I think the Bears fan in me wanted to hope other things would happen. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
10) Matt Ryan
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 19th
What Happened: Ryan started off great, but he hit a wall mid-season, and he simply did not meet expectations prior to a turf toe injury derailing the end of his season. His ranking would have been better if not for that injury as it cost him 3 games, but he simply was not a QB1 during the 2nd half of the season, and it didn't help that Michael Turner got hurt and the rushing attack wasn't the same without him. The kid is still a future stud, and if the Falcons can upgrade the 2nd receiver position, he'll be an excellent value in 2010. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
11) Matt Schaub
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 6th
What Happened: Schaub stayed healthy for 16 games and showed the potential he's had all along. Armed with a dangerous set of receiving options in a pass-first offense, Schaub posted great numbers all season long, and he should be here to stay among the elite QB1s for several seasons. Losing Owen Daniels was a big blow, but Schaub rebounded and found other secondary targets down the stretch. My preseason value ranking was correct.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Preseason Value: Appropriately ValuedFinal Ranking: 9th
What Happened: Big Ben found himself in the middle of a pass-first offense for the first time in his career, and he did his best to capitalize on it. Between Holmes, Ward, and Miller, Big Ben had great receiving talent around him, and the Pittsburgh coaching staff realized that by putting the ball in his hands to win games. He posted solid numbers for most of the season and had a monster finish. He was definitely worth his draft slot, and he was a surefire QB1 down the stretch. My preseason value analysis was correct.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
2009 NFL Draft Fantasy Football QB/RB Analysis
QB:
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has a big arm, but his accuracy at the college level concerns me a bit. I've read that one of the best statistics to consider when determining success as a future NFL QB is the combination of college starts (experience) and completion percentage (accuracy). Stafford certainly has the experience, but his completion percentage didn't reach 60% until his senior year. He moves into a transitioning NFL offense that does boast a stud #1 WR in Calvin Johnson and an emerging RB in Kevin Smith. They have little to nothing at the WR position behind CJ, and their TE position is led by fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew. There's growing speculation that he'll start in week 1, and given only Daunte Culpepper is in the way, that might not be far fetched.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez is on the opposite end of the 2 category spectrum as Stafford. Sanchez only started 1 full season, but he completed an impressive 65.8% of his passes last year. Sanchez enters an offense that he'll likely lead in week 1, and he has the intangible leadership qualities and personality that one looks for in a starting QB. The Jets have a quality offensive line, and they boast a solid trio of RBs in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene. The problem is that Jerricho Cotchery is not a true #1 WR, and there's some interesting but unproven talent behind him. They also boast a great receiving TE in Dustin Keller. All in all he has a solid situation around him, and a great defense on the other side of the ball. There's a possibility he emerges as a QB2 in 2009.
The rest of the QBs drafted do not have a chance of starting in 2009 except in an emergency.
RB:
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno may be 3rd on the depth chart right now, but it's going to take a poor performance by him in the preseason to keep him from being the unquestioned starter. With his receiving talent and willingness to block, he'll be the 3rd down RB at the very worst to start the season. The only thing Moreno doesn't possess is top-end speed, but NE's offensive system that McDaniels is bringing to Denver doesn't need it. Moreno was the best talent in a weak offensive draft class, and he should be the most valuable fantasy RB in 2009.
Donald Brown - Yes, the Colts have Joseph Addai, but he wore down badly in 2007, and suffered through an injury-filled 2008 as well. It's clear that Addai is no feature RB, thus the addition of Donald Brown. Brown is another heady, do-it-all RB just like Addai was coming out of college. It's possible that Brown could post a big preseason and take Addai's job, but odds are he'll play the role Addai did in 2006 as the slightly lesser tag team partner that alternates some good games with those where he doesn't get the ball enough.
Chris Wells - Goodbye Edge, hello Beanie. Tim Hightower seems slated as more of a change-of-pace RB given his erratic play, so Wells should immediately have a chance to win the 1st and 2nd down RB position for the Cardinals. His limitations in receiving and blocking will keep him from seeing the field as much as I expect Moreno to, and Hightower already proved to be an asset in those situations as a rookie. The biggest problem is that Hightower was a solid goal line RB last season, so Wells will have a challenge to win those duties. There's too many role question marks to take him as anything more than a RB3.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy's skill set is eerily similar to Brian Westbrook when he came out of college. McCoy is extremely explosive, but has question marks when it comes to inside running. McCoy is very interesting as Westbrook's ankle surgery could limit him to start the 2009 season, and he'll have every opportunity to win the backup RB position in the preseason. His receiving skills and explosiveness should get him on the field regardless.
Shonn Greene - Greene was really interesting when Thomas Jones was holding out, but with TJ back, his value will be dependent on TJ breaking down this season, which remains a possibility at his age. Greene is a powerful inside runner who complements Leon Washington very well, so he would immediately be an RB2 candidate should TJ go down. He'll be 3rd string to start the season barring an injury.
Glen Coffee - Coffee will be a pure backup for Frank Gore to start the season. He doesn't offer nearly the receiving game prowess that Gore offers, so his value certainly won't be the same should Gore get hurt. He'll be given the chance to win the backup RB position.
Andre Brown - Brown was drafted by the Giants to essentially replace Derrick Ward's roster spot, although Ahmad Bradshaw will slide into Ward's role in the offense. While 3rd string, the potent Giants rushing attack and Brandon Jacobs' fragility warrant keeping Brown in mind.
James Davis - Here's a sleeper to file away in your memory bank. Jamal Lewis is certainly slowing down, and while Jerome Harrison is an explosive talent, he doesn't really profile as a 20 carry RB, possibly opening the door for the bigger Davis should Lewis suffer an injury or simply run ineffectively.
Bernard Scott - Another sleeper to keep in mind. With only Cedric Benson owning a guaranteed role at RB, Scott has a chance to impress and potentially carve out a significant role should something happen to Benson. Brian Leonard and Kenny Watson start out ahead of him on the depth chart, but Leonard has never impressed as a RB when Steven Jackson got hurt in STL, and Watson is aging with injury concerns.
Rashad Jennings - Jennings was the last RB taken, and played at a small school in Liberty, but scouts leading up to the draft were impressed with his skillset. MJD and Greg Jones will handle most of the carries, but should an injury befall one of them, Jennings would have a chance at a sizeable role in the offense should he beat out Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman to stay off the practice squad.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has a big arm, but his accuracy at the college level concerns me a bit. I've read that one of the best statistics to consider when determining success as a future NFL QB is the combination of college starts (experience) and completion percentage (accuracy). Stafford certainly has the experience, but his completion percentage didn't reach 60% until his senior year. He moves into a transitioning NFL offense that does boast a stud #1 WR in Calvin Johnson and an emerging RB in Kevin Smith. They have little to nothing at the WR position behind CJ, and their TE position is led by fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew. There's growing speculation that he'll start in week 1, and given only Daunte Culpepper is in the way, that might not be far fetched.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez is on the opposite end of the 2 category spectrum as Stafford. Sanchez only started 1 full season, but he completed an impressive 65.8% of his passes last year. Sanchez enters an offense that he'll likely lead in week 1, and he has the intangible leadership qualities and personality that one looks for in a starting QB. The Jets have a quality offensive line, and they boast a solid trio of RBs in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene. The problem is that Jerricho Cotchery is not a true #1 WR, and there's some interesting but unproven talent behind him. They also boast a great receiving TE in Dustin Keller. All in all he has a solid situation around him, and a great defense on the other side of the ball. There's a possibility he emerges as a QB2 in 2009.
The rest of the QBs drafted do not have a chance of starting in 2009 except in an emergency.
RB:
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno may be 3rd on the depth chart right now, but it's going to take a poor performance by him in the preseason to keep him from being the unquestioned starter. With his receiving talent and willingness to block, he'll be the 3rd down RB at the very worst to start the season. The only thing Moreno doesn't possess is top-end speed, but NE's offensive system that McDaniels is bringing to Denver doesn't need it. Moreno was the best talent in a weak offensive draft class, and he should be the most valuable fantasy RB in 2009.
Donald Brown - Yes, the Colts have Joseph Addai, but he wore down badly in 2007, and suffered through an injury-filled 2008 as well. It's clear that Addai is no feature RB, thus the addition of Donald Brown. Brown is another heady, do-it-all RB just like Addai was coming out of college. It's possible that Brown could post a big preseason and take Addai's job, but odds are he'll play the role Addai did in 2006 as the slightly lesser tag team partner that alternates some good games with those where he doesn't get the ball enough.
Chris Wells - Goodbye Edge, hello Beanie. Tim Hightower seems slated as more of a change-of-pace RB given his erratic play, so Wells should immediately have a chance to win the 1st and 2nd down RB position for the Cardinals. His limitations in receiving and blocking will keep him from seeing the field as much as I expect Moreno to, and Hightower already proved to be an asset in those situations as a rookie. The biggest problem is that Hightower was a solid goal line RB last season, so Wells will have a challenge to win those duties. There's too many role question marks to take him as anything more than a RB3.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy's skill set is eerily similar to Brian Westbrook when he came out of college. McCoy is extremely explosive, but has question marks when it comes to inside running. McCoy is very interesting as Westbrook's ankle surgery could limit him to start the 2009 season, and he'll have every opportunity to win the backup RB position in the preseason. His receiving skills and explosiveness should get him on the field regardless.
Shonn Greene - Greene was really interesting when Thomas Jones was holding out, but with TJ back, his value will be dependent on TJ breaking down this season, which remains a possibility at his age. Greene is a powerful inside runner who complements Leon Washington very well, so he would immediately be an RB2 candidate should TJ go down. He'll be 3rd string to start the season barring an injury.
Glen Coffee - Coffee will be a pure backup for Frank Gore to start the season. He doesn't offer nearly the receiving game prowess that Gore offers, so his value certainly won't be the same should Gore get hurt. He'll be given the chance to win the backup RB position.
Andre Brown - Brown was drafted by the Giants to essentially replace Derrick Ward's roster spot, although Ahmad Bradshaw will slide into Ward's role in the offense. While 3rd string, the potent Giants rushing attack and Brandon Jacobs' fragility warrant keeping Brown in mind.
James Davis - Here's a sleeper to file away in your memory bank. Jamal Lewis is certainly slowing down, and while Jerome Harrison is an explosive talent, he doesn't really profile as a 20 carry RB, possibly opening the door for the bigger Davis should Lewis suffer an injury or simply run ineffectively.
Bernard Scott - Another sleeper to keep in mind. With only Cedric Benson owning a guaranteed role at RB, Scott has a chance to impress and potentially carve out a significant role should something happen to Benson. Brian Leonard and Kenny Watson start out ahead of him on the depth chart, but Leonard has never impressed as a RB when Steven Jackson got hurt in STL, and Watson is aging with injury concerns.
Rashad Jennings - Jennings was the last RB taken, and played at a small school in Liberty, but scouts leading up to the draft were impressed with his skillset. MJD and Greg Jones will handle most of the carries, but should an injury befall one of them, Jennings would have a chance at a sizeable role in the offense should he beat out Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman to stay off the practice squad.
TE Tony Gonzalez Traded To Atlanta Falcons
The Kansas City Chiefs have traded TE Tony Gonzalez to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2010 3rd round pick. KC's new GM Scott Pioli has an outstanding draft history, so this is a win for both teams. The Chiefs will likely make good use of the draft pick, and Atlanta gets a secondary receiving target that they sorely needed opposite Roddy White.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
QB Jay Cutler Traded To Chicago Bears
Better late than never, right? It's about time to start looking at fantasy football again. :D
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Bills Sign WR Terrell Owens
The Bills have signed WR Terrell Owens to a one year contract.
Hmm. The Bills have been unable to find a WR opposite Lee Evans, seemingly because they just never valued what Evans could accomplish without being double and triple teamed all game long. They finally mean business and have acquired someone sure to keep plenty of attention on himself, good and bad. As we've seen in the past, if Owens isn't winning, Owens is a problem. The AFC East continues to stay very tough, and we have to question if the Bills were really a WR away from making a serious run. This could end very badly, although the 1 year deal is perfect as it'll help motivate Owens to behave well.
Fantasy Impact: This is an interesting situation, and it ultimately comes down to Trent Edwards being able to stay healthy, something he hasn't done in either college or the NFL. Edwards is a quality QB, but he's not the talent that Tony Romo is. On paper, the Bills have a solid offensive line, 2 excellent WRs to help keep attention off each other, and a pair of talented RBs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.
Given Jauron's conservative history, the uncertainty of what type of QB Trent Edwards is, and the very tough division the Bills play in, Terrell Owens has seen his fantasy stock fall. His targets, catches, and TDs all project to drop, so the likely case is that he'll be over-valued on draft day. He can still put up WR1 numbers if things break right, but he has far more working against him in Buffalo than he did in Dallas.
Hmm. The Bills have been unable to find a WR opposite Lee Evans, seemingly because they just never valued what Evans could accomplish without being double and triple teamed all game long. They finally mean business and have acquired someone sure to keep plenty of attention on himself, good and bad. As we've seen in the past, if Owens isn't winning, Owens is a problem. The AFC East continues to stay very tough, and we have to question if the Bills were really a WR away from making a serious run. This could end very badly, although the 1 year deal is perfect as it'll help motivate Owens to behave well.
Fantasy Impact: This is an interesting situation, and it ultimately comes down to Trent Edwards being able to stay healthy, something he hasn't done in either college or the NFL. Edwards is a quality QB, but he's not the talent that Tony Romo is. On paper, the Bills have a solid offensive line, 2 excellent WRs to help keep attention off each other, and a pair of talented RBs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.
Given Jauron's conservative history, the uncertainty of what type of QB Trent Edwards is, and the very tough division the Bills play in, Terrell Owens has seen his fantasy stock fall. His targets, catches, and TDs all project to drop, so the likely case is that he'll be over-valued on draft day. He can still put up WR1 numbers if things break right, but he has far more working against him in Buffalo than he did in Dallas.
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