2009 RB4 Value Analysis

37) Tim Hightower
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Chris Wells.

Overview: Despite all of Edgerrin James' struggles during the regular season and Hightower's ascension to the primary ball carrier for Arizona, Hightower completely fell on his face when given the opportunity. He teased his owners with a breakout 22/109/1 TD in his first game as the starter against STL, but then couldn't average 3 yards a carry for the rest of his time as the starter as Arizona eventually abandoned the run. Hightower will still maintain his passing down work, and he has fought hard to fend off talented, but injury prone rookie Chris Wells.  Hightower has reportedly improved his decision-making, so we'll see if that translates to Sundays.  He's a solid RB4.

38) Leon Washington
ADP: 98.4 (9th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released QB Brett Favre, drafted RB Shonn Greene.

Overview: Unfortunately for Leon Washington, the Jets drafted Thomas Jones' heir apparent in Shonn Greene. Washington will maintain the exact same role as last year, but odds are that Greene will step in as the starter should Thomas Jones get hurt, so he doesn't possess the same upside as last year. However, with the Jets choosing between the unimpressive Kellen Clemens and rookie Jonathan Sanchez at QB, their strong offensive line, and their strong defense, the Jets are looking like a mirror image of the 2008 Ravens...coincidence as the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets coach? Probably not. Washington should post erratic weekly totals, but he will probably get more touches this year as they'll utilize his skills more and also run the ball as much as anyone in the league.  I think he's a solid RB3.

39) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Mendenhall has quite a bit of upside for being drafted as a RB4. Willie Parker could be breaking down in front of him after 2 huge workloads in 2006 and 2007, and he'll likely be in on the money downs (passing, goal line) along with being a change-of-pace runner. Parker would have to get hurt to lose his starting job, but Mendenhall projects as the more valuable Steelers RB despite the lesser price tag.  However, Mendenhall has shown little on the field as he continues to look like an ordinary RB.  The shine of his upside is fading, although taking him as an RB4 could be worth it.

40) Le'Ron McClain
ADP: 101.8 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: McClain turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any RB last year. After starting the year as a mostly unknown FB, McClain ascended to starting RB and became the face of the Ravens smashmouth offensive style. McClain projects to take a backseat to Ray Rice this season, and he's actually moved back to the fullback position.  Ray Rice looks like the projected goal line runner now, leaving McClain with no fantasy valued.  He'll need an injury in front of him to matter again.

41) Fred Jackson
ADP: 106.1 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension for RB Marshawn Lynch, signed WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Fred Jackson went from non-descript backup for a great young talented RB to an annoying drain on Lynch's carries. A coaching staff favorite, Jackson will get a 3 game stint as a starter during Lynch's suspension, and if he's as good as he showed last year, he'll definitely carve out a bigger role as a platoon-mate for Lynch. He's a definite RB2 for the first 3 weeks while Lynch is suspended, but he will go back to more of a RB3 as Lynch is also too talented to leave on the bench, and Lynch will almost certainly regain his starting position.

42) Earnest Graham
ADP: 107.0 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Derrick Ward.

Overview: Graham clearly annoyed fantasy owners last year. After posting RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he started the year inexplicable sharing carries with veteran Warrick Dunn, and then when he finally start getting primary RB carries, he went down with an ankle injury and was lost for the rest of the season. Tampa signed Derrick Ward, and with Graham projects to be a lesser part of a RB committee. That all being said, Tampa is set to run plenty this year, Ward has had numerous injuries in his career, and Graham will certainly be on the field each game. He's a solid RB4.

43) LeSean McCoy
ADP: 107.1 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: McCoy is the new backup RB for Philadelphia, released RB Correll Buckhalter.

Overview: McCoy, a scatback out of Pittsburgh, compares favorably to Brian Westbrook. He's very quick, excellent in the passing game, and just like Westbrook, he'll struggle running between the tackles to start his career. It remains to be seen what version of Brian Westbrook the Eagles will get after serious offseason ankle surgery as he turns 30, so McCoy could play more than the Eagles would prefer depending on how Westbrook holds up. His only competition is Lorenzo Booker, who's a lesser version of the same style of RB. He's an upside pick and a must-have for Westbrook owners.

44) Julius Jones
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Edgerrin James, released RB Maurice Morris.

Overview: Their offensive line sucks, they just signed Edge, and Julius Jones is an average talent at best.  This is not the recipe for fantasy success.  Avoid.

45) Fred Taylor
ADP: 118.6 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Taylor is part of the clustered NE backfield.

Overview: Taylor showed that he still has some tread on his tires left last season, but he's on his last legs and is joining a very crowded NE backfield. With Maroney likely to start and potentially dominate early down work, there's very little upside here, and Taylor's liabilities in the passing game won't give him much value at all. Pass.

46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Taylor lost carries last year, but he still played essentially the same role he always has since Adrian Peterson arrived. He's the exact same player that you drafted last year, and he'll come at a cheaper price. He's a must-have for Peterson owners, and he's a great RB4 even for non Peterson owners.

47) Ricky Williams
ADP: 125.5 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Ricky Williams proved that he still had something left in his tank last season, posting a solid 4.1 YPC as the lesser half of a committee with Ronnie Brown. However, like I mentioned with Ronnie Brown, I expect Brown to take another step forward in the committee as he's another year removed from his ACL injury. This will decrease the amount of time that Williams sees the field, but with no true young backup on the roster, expect Williams to replace Brown as the primary ball carrier should Brown get hurt again.

48) Ray Rice
ADP: 126.4 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Rice is the new starting RB for the Ravens.

Overview: Here's one of the great sleepers in the early ADP reports. Much like Favre at the QB position, I expect his ADP to rise once more people realize that he is the starting RB for the Ravens. Rice has even played on goal line situations in the preseason, and with McClain's move back to fullback, Rice appears to have won the goal line back.  He's also the best receiver at the RB position on the team, so along with being the lead back for carries, he'll also lead the RBs in receptions. Everyone expects Baltimore to continue running quite a bit, so expect Rice to approach RB2 value this season.  Rice has ascended to the 5th/6th round territory where he's still a fine value.  He's still a very good RB3, and perhaps even a RB2 if you're loading up at other positions.