2009 QB2 Value Analysis

13) Carson Palmer
ADP: 90.1 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, signed WR Laveranues Coles

Overview: How the mighty have fallen, which is the perfect opportunity for value. Carson Palmer is my value pick of the year for quarterbacks. He's being drafted as a very late QB1, or a QB2 in some instances. Palmer is not without risk as his exact elbow injury is still a mystery, but he's proclaimed himself 100%, and if he looks good in the preseason, jump on him. Housh has left, but he's been replaced by Coles, who boasts a similar skillset and toughness. Add in the rumored maturity and re-dedication of Chris Henry, and the expected emergence of Andre Caldwell, and Palmer still has an enviable setting of passing game weapons. Benson isn't going to be lighting the world on fire in the backfield, so Cincy will pass plenty. Ensure that you get a reliable backup given the uncertain nature of his elbow injury, but go get Palmer this year.

14) Matt Cassel
ADP: 101.4 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Cassel is the new starting QB of the Chiefs.

Overview: I don't like Cassel as a QB1 this year. Some may look at his body of work last year, especially down the stretch, and assume that Cassel is a breakout candidate. The good thing for Cassel is that he'll be playing in a similar spread offense as KC's new coach Todd Haley often employed the same scheme last season. The bad thing is that this is not New England's passing talent. KC has a rebuilding offensive line, an aging LJ in the backfield, and little receiving talent to support Dwayne Bowe. They also traded Tony Gonzalez, a huge loss for the passing game. Cassel should have some good games, but I think he'll prove too unreliable to start every week.

15) Eli Manning
ADP: 108.7 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks, released RB Derrick Ward.

Overview: Eli has now lost his top two receiving targets in successive seasons. Luckily for the Giants, their offensive line and running game remain elite. There is a positive, and that's the young talent they do boast in the passing game, but they are without a single proven talent at the position. Dominick Hixon has been a solid deep threat thus far, Steve Smith is an emerging possession receiver, and both Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks offer a lot of talent. If two of these receivers can take a step forward this season, Eli should be a solid QB2. The nature of the Giants run-first offense simply doesn't allow for much fantasy potential, but a Brandon Jacobs injury would change that.

16) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 109.1 (9th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, released RB Maurice Morris

Overview: Hasselbeck suffered through an injury-prone 2008, and he turns 34 when the season starts. Housh finally offers him a reliable #1 WR, but Housh simply isn't a true #1 WR. Deion Branch is returning from yet another knee injury, and they still have the same mess of unproven WRs behind those top two. One bright spot is John Carlson, who finally gives Seattle a great weapon at the TE position in the passing game. Let someone else grab an aging, injury-prone QB with average passing game weapons.

17) David Garrard
ADP: 120.0 (10th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Torry Holt, released WR Jerry Porter, released WR Matt Jones, released RB Fred Taylor.

Overview: Garrard is what he is...a decent QB2 with little upside and little downside. Jacksonville gets most of their offensive line back along with adding two talented youngsters in the draft. MJD is an all-around stud in the backfield. Holt is a nice, reliable addition, but he's no longer the deep threat stud he's been in the past. Mike Walker is talented, but has dealt with knee injuries his entire career. Matt Jones is a loss as Garrard built a nice chemistry with him last season and he provided a tall deep threat. Jacksonville re-fueled with younsters in the draft, but none project to make an immediate impact. If Walker can stay healthy, Garrard could have the most reliable weapons of his career, but that's a big if.

18) Kyle Orton
ADP: 126.6 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Orton is the new starting QB of the Denver Broncos.

Overview: Orton is an excellent QB2 this year. Orton showed fringe QB1 value with the Bears last season prior to an ankle injury derailing his season, and that was pretty impressive with the lack of passing weapons he had at his disposal. Now he has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and possibly Tony Scheffler if DEN decides to use him. Denver also drafted Knowshon Moreno who is proficient in the passing game. Orton might have gotten a bad rap in Chicago, and he didn't really have ideal arm strength, but his intelligence and accuracy will play well in Denver's new offense.

19) Trent Edwards
ADP: 145.7 (13th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Edwards hit the jackpot, on the surface, when the Bills added Terrell Owens. Owens has a nice history of behaving in his 1st season on a new team, but Buffalo could be different as Owens begins to decline, and as the offense won't be all about him in the passing game. He will now have to share targets with Lee Evans, and Edwards doesn't have the big arm that both McNabb and Romo do. Buffalo also loves to run the ball, so Owens won't see a boatload of targets. Edwards is certainly worth the risk as a QB2 with such a dynamic WR duo, and with both Lynch and Fred Jackson, who possess passing game value out of the backfield.

20) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 146.1 (13th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Delhomme decided to turn in the worst game of his career when the Panthers needed him most against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That probably left a sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths, and as well it should. Delhomme continues to age, and after being a popular sleeper last year, he proved yet again that he's nothing more than a QB2. Carolina boasts little opposite Steve Smith, and they remain committed to running the ball with 2 great talents in the backfield. It's a shame as both Williams and Stewart could be proficient in the passing game if they were used more, but Delhomme is someone to draft only if he has a solid matchup the week your stud is on bye.

21) Joe Flacco
ADP: 177.4 (15th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Thanks to Matt Ryan, Flacco's similarly impressive rookie season went somewhat under the radar. It's true that Flacco was supported by an elite defense and a great rushing attack, but he showed excellent poise in big situations, and he certainly showed off his big arm when called upon. He should continue to improve in the 2nd season, but thanks to the run-first offense, losing Derrick Mason, and a lack of other passing game weapons, Flacco won't be much more than a blah QB2 this season.

22) Marc Bulger
ADP: 178.6 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, released WR Drew Bennett.

Overview: I'll keep this short. His starting receivers are Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton. He's nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel backup QB.

23) Chad Pennington
ADP: 182.0 (16th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Miami has some interesting young talent at WR with Ted Ginn and Davone Bess, but they will remain a run-first team. Pennington's arm continues to get weaker, and he has Chad Henne nipping at his heels. Pass.

24) Jason Campbell
ADP: 187.0 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Campbell was a disaster last season, but he's going to be plenty motivated to recover in his contract season. The other good thing going for him is that this will be his 2nd season in Jim Zorn's offense as offensive system stability has not been a part of Campbell's past dating back to college. Campbell remains a talented young QB, but whether or not he's a good WCO fit is very much up in the air. He's a good upside QB2 to take for those who have already drafted an elite option, and I'd rather have him than guys like Pennington, Bulger, etc.


Other QBs To Keep An Eye On:

Brett Favre - Favre has joined the Vikings finally, and he should prove to be a reasonable QB2 with a bit of upside.   He has great downfield weapons in Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sydney Rice with one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him, and needless to say an elite RB behind him in Adrian Peterson.  His slightly torn rotator cuff scares me a bit at his age, but he should be pretty reliable to pair with someone like Schaub or Palmer.


Brady Quinn - Quinn is expected to win the starting job for the Browns, but that's not set in stone yet. With little outside of Braylon Edwards to throw to, he doesn't possess the weapons necessary to be a total sleeper, but he's also someone to take a chance on to see how he fares if he wins the job.

Alex Smith/Shaun Hill - Another QB battle, this time in SF. This will be a conservative offense that revolves around Frank Gore, but with Josh Morgan, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, SF boasts good talent at the receiving positions that would make whoever starts a reasonable QB2 option.