2009 WR1 Value Analysis

1) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.

2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.

3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.

Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.

4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued


What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?

Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.

5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season.  I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.

6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.

7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.

Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.

8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.

9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.

10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.

11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel

Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before.  He's a great fit as a WR2.

12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.

Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.