2009 WR2 Value Analysis

13) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued


What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.

Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's.  I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season.  He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely.  I think the 5th round sounds about right.

14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.

Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain.  Let someone else take a chance on him.

15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.

Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.

16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.

Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2.  Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.

17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.

Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.

18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.

Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.

19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.

20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.

Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.

21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.

Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.

22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.

Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.

23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.

24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.