2009 QB1 Value Analysis Review

1) Drew Brees
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 2nd

What Happened: There's really not much to review here.  Drew Brees was the consensus #1 FF QB in 2009 drafts, and he finished 2nd.  He had a lot of weapons around him, and they mostly stayed healthy, so he gave his owners exactly what they expected this season.  There's no reason to think he won't be one of the 2 top QBs off the board next season as well.  My preseason value ranking was correct.

2) Tom Brady
Preseason Value: Slightly Overvalued
Final Ranking: 4th


What Happened: For some reason, it seems like Brady slightly disappointed this season, but that's probably because of the lofty expectations that persisted after his monster 2007 season.  Even though Brady did start slow despite his excellent preseason, he finished strong and his numbers were there when all was said and done.  He did finish 20 points behind the top 3, however.  My preseason value ranking was within reason.

3) Peyton Manning
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 3rd

What Happened: Just like Drew Brees, Manning gave his owners exactly what they expected, but it was a shame that the Colts ran away with the AFC so early because he was not startable in week 16.  That aside, he was great all season long and was as consistent as anyone.  Despite Anthony Gonzalez missing the entire season, youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up in big ways, and Dallas Clark was an absolute monster.  My preseason value ranking was correct.

4) Kurt Warner
Preseason Value: Overvalued

Final Ranking: 12th


What Happened: Warner actually made it through 16 games, but he often played at less than 100% thanks to his offseason hip surgery.  He tossed in some big games, but he was mostly a disappointment, barely finishing as a starting QB in a 12 team league.  His age showed and he often lacked zip on his throws.  His downfield throwing was a big problem for a chunk of the season.  He was a disappointment.  My preseason value ranking was correct.

5) Phillip Rivers
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 5th

What Happened: I honestly don't know what the hell I was thinking with Rivers' ranking.  Rivers had a great 2008 season coming off of ACL surgery, so he was a year farther removed from that injury, and I had LT ranked low because I felt he was in decline, which should have triggered me to think that Rivers would have another big year without a dominant rushing attack being the focal point of the offensive philosophy.  Rivers did exactly what he was expected to do and has solidified himself as a top fantasy QB.  My preseason value ranking was definitely incorrect.

6) Tony Romo
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 8th

What Happened: I said this should be interesting, and it was.  Romo had a huge week 1, went into the tank for a few weeks without a consistent playmaker, and then Miles Austin happened.  Romo, equipped with a TO-like playmaker in Austin, went right back to being a QB1 with lots of upside.  Roy Williams even settled into his role as a tertiary target behind Austin and Witten.  Romo owners can thank Miles Austin for giving them exactly what they drafted Romo to be.  My preseason value ranking was incorrect, thanks to Miles Austin.

7) Aaron Rodgers

Preseason Value: Slightly Undervalued
Final Ranking: 1st


What Happened: Rodgers was an absolute monster this season, spreading the ball around to his vast array of talented receivers, and rarely turning the ball over.  What was especially impressive was the fact Rodgers took so many sacks thanks to a shaky offensive line, and he was on the run for the majority of the first half of the season.  Thanks to his mobility, he continued to make plays despite being flushed out of the pocket so often.  My preseason value ranking was spot-on.

8) Donovan McNabb
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 11th

What Happened: McNabb mostly fulfilled expectations, but thanks to a rib injury that knocked him out of week 1 and kept him out through week 4, his overall stats suffered.  Now, McNabb has always been injury-prone, so I should have factored that into his ranking.  From week 5 onwards, he only had one game in which he didn't throw at least 1 TD, which is excellent consistency from a QB not drafted among the elite.  McNabb met expectations, but did not exceed them, and because of this my preseason value ranking was incorrect.

9) Jay Cutler
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 14th


What Happened: Cutler put up a vomit sandwich in week 1, rebounded with several nice games, and then was mostly unstartable over the rest of the season.  Cutler simply lacked passing game weapons with the relentless double teams against new BFF Greg Olsen, and his decision making was absolutely horrid as he tried to force throws into receivers that simply could not make plays for him.  This should have been obvious heading into the season, but I think the Bears fan in me wanted to hope other things would happen.  My preseason value ranking was incorrect.

10) Matt Ryan

Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 19th


What Happened: Ryan started off great, but he hit a wall mid-season, and he simply did not meet expectations prior to a turf toe injury derailing the end of his season.  His ranking would have been better if not for that injury as it cost him 3 games, but he simply was not a QB1 during the 2nd half of the season, and it didn't help that Michael Turner got hurt and the rushing attack wasn't the same without him.  The kid is still a future stud, and if the Falcons can upgrade the 2nd receiver position, he'll be an excellent value in 2010.  My preseason value ranking was incorrect.

11) Matt Schaub
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 6th


What Happened: Schaub stayed healthy for 16 games and showed the potential he's had all along.  Armed with a dangerous set of receiving options in a pass-first offense, Schaub posted great numbers all season long, and he should be here to stay among the elite QB1s for several seasons.  Losing Owen Daniels was a big blow, but Schaub rebounded and found other secondary targets down the stretch.  My preseason value ranking was correct.

12) Ben Roethlisberger
Preseason Value: Appropriately ValuedFinal Ranking: 9th


What Happened: Big Ben found himself in the middle of a pass-first offense for the first time in his career, and he did his best to capitalize on it.  Between Holmes, Ward, and Miller, Big Ben had great receiving talent around him, and the Pittsburgh coaching staff realized that by putting the ball in his hands to win games.  He posted solid numbers for most of the season and had a monster finish.  He was definitely worth his draft slot, and he was a surefire QB1 down the stretch.  My preseason value analysis was correct.