2009 RB1 Value Analysis

1) Adrian Peterson
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.

Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year.  He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.

2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.

Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.

3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.

Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.

4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.

Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.

5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.

Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.

6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age.  I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.

7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year.  With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared.  DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point.  He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.

8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.

Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.

9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role.  However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line.  He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.

10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.

Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead.  If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.

11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.

Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys.  I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.

12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.