2009 RB2 Value Analysis

13) Clinton Portis
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Portis blew out of the gates with the best stats since his Denver days, but unfortunately it took an insane workload to get him there, and he broke down in the 2nd half. Portis, like Tomlinson and Westbrook ahead of him, is a candidate to break down this year. He's had a lot of carries in his career, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. He also plays for behind a below average offensive line with a stagnant offense. He could post workmanlike numbers again, but fits better as a RB2 at this stage than a RB1.  Ultimately, I'd MUCH rather wait til round 3 to grab Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.

14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 16.6 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress.

Overview: Well, we certainly know what we're getting with Brandon Jacobs at this stage. He's going to maul defenses when healthy, he's going to score touchdowns, and he's going to miss a few games. The offense will miss Burress stretching the field, but are counting on their young WRs to pick up the slack. It also remains to be seen if Ahmad Bradshaw can pick up the change-of-pace role that Derrick Ward played so admirably last season. Running behind one of the best lines in football and supported by a great defense, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not chugging along at the same pace he's set the past two seasons. Just beware of the injury risk and don't count on 16 games. He's a borderline RB1 when healthy.

15) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 29.4 (3rd round, 5th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Ronnie Brown made headlines with his 4 TD outburst in week 5 out of the Wildcat formation, followed that up with a 24/125/1TD line in week 6, then curious only received 20 carries in one game after that while essentially splitting time with Ricky Williams. I'm still a huge proponent of Ronnie Brown, and I think you'll see the best of him in 2009. He'll be almost 2 years removed from his ACL surgery, so he should get some explosion back. It's hard to imagine the now 32 year old Ricky Williams spending as much time on the field as he did last season, so I expect him to move into more of a backup role while Brown returns as the lead RB. Brown is safest as an RB2 because his exact workload is undetermined, but I think he has an RB1 season in him for 2009.

16) Pierre Thomas
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.

Overview: Thomas had a coming out party on the last game of the season at Chicago in 2007, but wasn't guaranteed a role on a clustered RB depth chart for the Saints before earning one as McAllister was phased out of the offense. Thomas took it and ran, posting RB1 numbers between weeks 11 and 16. The Saints flirted with drafting Chris Wells and signing veteran RBs in the offseason, but ultimately did nothing and will head into the 2009 season with Thomas as their primary ball carrier. Reggie Bush remains, but appears to be heading back to a change-of-pace RB/WR, plus he's coming off of major knee surgery. If Thomas can hold up during his first run as a primary RB, there's no question he has the skills and surrounding offense necessary to be a RB1. Like Ronnie Brown, he's safer as a RB, but his upside is huge

17) Ryan Grant
ADP: 35.0 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Ryan Grant doesn't have an admirable skill set as he doesn't catch passes and isn't productive in short yardage, but thanks to his surrounding offense and the lack of a bruiser behind him on the depth chart, he manages to post solid RB2 numbers. After teasing owners with great RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he regressed to the mean in 2008, and his lack of TDs is moreso a reflection of his poor short yardage skills than bad luck. Expect more of the same in 2009 for Grant, and he's a reasonably safe, unexciting RB2.  I'd rather take a 2nd WR.

18) Thomas Jones
ADP: 35.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Mark Sanchez, drafted RB Shonn Greene, released WR Laveraneus Coles

Overview: TJ is on the ole avoid list. While the Jets are set up to be a great rushing team again behind a good offensve line, Jones is turning 31 before the season, is coming off of 4 straight 300ish carry seasons, will battle for carries between both the more explosive Leon Washington and the younger Shonn Greene, and will have a rookie QB leading the offense. I still fully expect him to start, but his role is guaranteed to decrease on what projects to be a less explosive offense.

19) Kevin Smith
ADP: 36.4 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Matthew Stafford, signed WR Bryant Johnson.

Overview: Kevin Smith inexplicably lost his job for a bit to the washed up Rudi Johnson last year, but that was just one of many boneheaded decisions by the first coaching staff to lead an NFL team to an 0-16 season. Smith closed strong, posting borderline RB1 numbers from week 10 onwards. He still has an iffy line in front of him, and the prospects of Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford starting at QB isn't enticing, but he produced very well down the stretch with the same team last year, and we can't ignore that. He's a well-rounded RB who runs hard and should produce 2nd round numbers at a 3rd round price. I'd rather have him than Portis, Grant, or Jones as my RB2.

20) Reggie Bush
ADP: 42.1 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Pierre Thomas is the new starting RB.

Overview: Reggie Bush was off to his best season fantasy-wise of his career prior to a knee injury, but that was mostly because of his great receiving talent and not because of positive strides running the football. After 3 seasons with no improvement, the Saints have moved Pierre Thomas to the primary ball carrier position, and expect Reggie Bush to see less carries while maintaining his receiving value. The other negative against Bush is how well he'll recover his speed and explosiveness coming off of serious offseason knee surgery, which is essentially what allows him to have fantasy value. Given all of this, I'd like Bush much better as a 3rd RB than someone I plug into my lineup every week. His exact role is uncertain at this time.

21) Joseph Addai
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Donald Brown, release WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Just as his 2nd half slide in 2007 indicated, Addai simply is not a feature RB. He sustains too many injuries that require him to come out of games or miss them altogether. He disappointed yet again in 2008, and with Dominic Rhodes leaving once more, they have drafted rookie RB Donald Brown. The Colts have been at their best in the post-Edge era by using a full-out committee, and with the more explosive and equally cerebral Brown now aboard, I expect them to employ the same strategy this year. Addai's experience will give him the edge in carries this year, but Addai is going to be an iffy weekly play.

22) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 47.3 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension, signed WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Marshawn Lynch got himself into more trouble this offseason, and as a result he will serve a 3 game suspension to start 2009. This is real trouble because often times backup RB Fred Jackson looked like the better RB in 2008. Jackson will be given a chance to carry the full load for the first 3 games, and there's a good chance he'll work himself into a timeshare, especially with the added benefit of Terrell Owens helping make the offense more explosive. I don't like drafting a 2nd RB likely in fight for playing time, especially with a 3 game disadvantage. I still think Lynch will get more carries than Jackson when he returns, but will it be enough to make him an every week starter? Odds say no.  Lynch would be great as a RB3, but not as a RB2.  Let someone else go RB2 on him in the 4th round.

23) Derrick Ward
ADP: 48.5 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Ward is the new starting RB for Tampa Bay.

Overview: Ward essentially moves from 1 timeshare to another, but this time he'll be the lead back. Ward will be 29 when the season starts, but has far less tread on his tires than most 29 year old starting RBs. Some will argue that this will be a straight 50/50 split with incumbant Earnest Graham, and it's actually starting to shape up that way.  I originally thought that TB didn't spend all that money on Ward to only put him on the field 50% of the time, but they're talking about a 2-2-1 split with Ward, Graham, and Cadillac.  It would certainly give the Bucs some diversity, but it seems ridiculous that their most talented RB would only be on the field 2/5 series.  It hurts Ward a bit, and he's now a dicey RB2 pick.

24) Knowshon Moreno
ADP: 51.4 (5th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Moreno is the new starting RB for Denver.

Overview: Moreno hasn't officially won the starting job yet, but everything indicates that he will be starting in week 1. Moreno was the best all-around back to come out of the NFL draft in 2009, and he landed in a great situation as he only has guys like Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to beat out. The only knock against Moreno's skill set is the lack of breakaway speed, but that's not necessary in McDaniels' offense. His offensive line is very good, Orton will lead a solid passing game to keep guys out of the box, and their WRs are dangerous. The only thing holding me back from being very excited about Moreno is that New England used a multiple back system for years, and while Moreno has the skill set to be a true lead backs, odds are that Buckhalter and maybe even Jordan will see time on the field as well. Moreno is a recommended RB2, but not before the 5th round.