2009 RB3 Value Analysis

25) Larry Johnson
ADP: 52.5 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Matt Cassel is the new starting QB.

Overview: For the 2nd straight year, the wheels came off of LJ's season. He teased owners with a couple big games early on, however he crashed back down to Earth prior to legal troubles destroying the rest of his season. Appropriately, LJ has crashed into late RB2/early RB3 status. Odds are someone will draft him as an RB2 hoping to strike gold, and that's just not going to happen. While LJ looks safe on KC's roster after they inexplicably did nothing to upgrade their RB position, new coach Todd Haley will likely use him similar to how he used Edgerrin James in ARI. He's going to be pulled off the field a decent bit in favor of Jamaal Charles. An alarming stat: LJ was 4/17 on carries inside the 5 yard line. While the offensive line deserves some of the blame, LJ simply isn't what he once was, and he's not going to get the 275-300 carries he'll need to be an every week starter.

26) Darren McFadden
ADP: 52.6 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: McFadden is the new starting RB for Oakland.

Overview: McFadden had some pretty bad luck in 2008. Fargas suffered the injury McFadden owners dreamed about in week 2, McFadden torched the Chiefs for 164 rushing yards, and then later that game he suffered a toe injury that limited him for the rest of the season. McFadden now has the starting job, but Fargas and Michael Bush remain on the roster, so it's not his all to himself. That's not a bad thing as I don't view McFadden as a 300 carry RB. As long as Oakland caters to his versatility in the passing game while giving him 15-20 touches a game, McFadden looks like a solid RB2 for 2009.

27) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 58.7 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Stewart never took the starting job some people thought he would in 2008 thanks to the re-dedication of similarly talented DeAngelo Williams. Stewart will return as the lesser committee member in 2009, but that's only if he can get himself back onto the field.  An Achillies injury has eliminated most of his offseason, and he's still not back at practice, much less playing in games.  Let someone else roll the dice with him as their RB3.

28) Chris Wells
ADP: 63.3 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Wells is the new starting RB in Arizona.

Overview: Wells was a player to watch this preseason, but he hasn't even been on the field yet.  He is slated to receive some playing time in the 3rd week of the preseason, so we'll finally be able to watch a bit of him then.  He's missed a decent portion of camp with various injuries, which was common for Wells in college as well.  He still has a ton of upside, but he's obviously injury prone and probably not suited to be a workhorse.  Tim Hightower has improved, so this is looking like a committee attack, at least to start the season.  He's still worth speculation, but he comes with more risk than originally thought.

29) Willie Parker
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Nate Washington.

Overview: I think Willie Parker slots in as nothing more than a decent RB3 this year, and there's more downside than upside. He disappointed owners with injuries last season after a hot start, and with RB Rashard Mendenhall returning to presumably a bigger role than he was slated for last season, Parker's value is on the way down. Not only will he split time with Mendenhall, but Mendenhall also projects to be on the field for the money downs (passing, goal line). Parker should go back to his role in 2005 as an early down runner, and if he's effective in that role, he should be a decent bye week fill-in. I'd rather avoid the Steelers backfield this year.

30) LenDale White
ADP: 72.9 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.

Overview: White made up for his decreased role by scoring 15 times last season, although that made him rather risky knowing that he was worthless unless he scored. His touches are set to decrease with the expected increased usage of Chris Johnson, and furthermore, he's dropped weight this offseason. Given he was a power back and isn't going to suddenly gain a bunch of speed with the weight loss, one has to wonder what effect that will have on his limited skill set. White is best as an RB4 and handcuff for CJ owners than a standalone bye week fill-in.

31) Cedric Benson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed Laveraneus Coles, released TJ Houshmandzadeh.

Overview: Benson was somewhat of a revelation in Cincy last year, posting several 100 yard games after becoming the starting RB in Cincy. Benson isn't fast and doesn't catch passes, but if he runs with the same renewed dedication as last year, he can last as a 1st/2nd down RB, and he'll score a decent amount of TDs behind the Cincy passing game. He can be a lesser version of Rudi Johnson in his prime, and that's worth having on your bench as an RB3. There's certainly no one behind him who would be a threat to his job.

32) Felix Jones
ADP: 80.5 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Felix Jones showed just how dangerous he can be last season in the short time he played prior to missing the rest of the season with injuries (torn hamstring, torn toe ligament). There's a decent chance that Felix Jones steps until Julius Jones' former role in the Dallas offense, which would give him a good number of touches. Barber will still dominate the money downs, but Jones should get the ball enough to be a decent bye week fill-in. He has huge upside should Barber go down again.

33) Donald Brown
ADP: 84.7 (7th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Brown is the new backup RB for Indy.

Overview: Brown is essentially a more explosive version of Joseph Addai. Brown looks like he'll be the lesser version of a RB committee, much like Addai was in his first season, which means he'll have some good games as well as some games where he doesn't get enough touches to start. All in all, this makes him a solid RB3 with the upside for more...an ideal RB3 candidate.

34) Darren Sproles
ADP: 89.1 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Sproles had his coming out party in the playoffs last season when he posted 105 rushing yards and 2 TDs in week 1 of the playoffs, and then he followed that up with 91 receiving yards and 1 TD in week 2 of the playoffs. That sort of versatility shows how valuable he can be, although nobody seems to think he can last as a featured RB, and I tend to agree. Regardless, while Norv Turner seems to think LT will get 320 carries again, it's way up in the air as to whether or not he will, and also whether he can hold up doing that again. As it stands right now, assume Sproles will be a solid handcuff with the potential for a large role should LT goes down, but I'm not sure what type of bye week fill-in value he'll have as LT's backup. More should be known closer to the season.

35) Willis McGahee
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: I'm going to keep this short. McGahee had yet another offseason surgery, supposed to both his knee and ankle, and he's likely to fall to 3rd on the depth chart. Ray Rice will probably start, and LeRon McClain will probably keep short down/goal line duties. Avoid at anything more than an unexciting RB4.

36) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded TE Kellen Winslow.

Overview: Jamal Lewis posted workman-like, veteran RB stats for a crappy offense last year. He posted 1000 yards, but never ran for 100 yards in a single game, and he only scored 4 TDs. That will likely be his absolute best case scenario as Cleveland finally seems intent on getting explosive backup James Harrison more involved. Lewis will still get the goal line carries, but he's just not going to see enough carries to be anything more than a RB3, and at that price, I'd rather take a shot at a younger option with a higher upside than a declining vet who's a candidate to break down.