1) Adrian Peterson
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year. He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.
2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.
3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.
5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.
Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.
6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age. I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.
7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year. With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared. DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point. He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.
8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.
Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.
9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role. However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line. He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.
10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.
Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead. If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.
11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.
Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys. I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.
12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
2009 QB2 Value Analysis
13) Carson Palmer
ADP: 90.1 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, signed WR Laveranues Coles
Overview: How the mighty have fallen, which is the perfect opportunity for value. Carson Palmer is my value pick of the year for quarterbacks. He's being drafted as a very late QB1, or a QB2 in some instances. Palmer is not without risk as his exact elbow injury is still a mystery, but he's proclaimed himself 100%, and if he looks good in the preseason, jump on him. Housh has left, but he's been replaced by Coles, who boasts a similar skillset and toughness. Add in the rumored maturity and re-dedication of Chris Henry, and the expected emergence of Andre Caldwell, and Palmer still has an enviable setting of passing game weapons. Benson isn't going to be lighting the world on fire in the backfield, so Cincy will pass plenty. Ensure that you get a reliable backup given the uncertain nature of his elbow injury, but go get Palmer this year.
14) Matt Cassel
ADP: 101.4 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Cassel is the new starting QB of the Chiefs.
Overview: I don't like Cassel as a QB1 this year. Some may look at his body of work last year, especially down the stretch, and assume that Cassel is a breakout candidate. The good thing for Cassel is that he'll be playing in a similar spread offense as KC's new coach Todd Haley often employed the same scheme last season. The bad thing is that this is not New England's passing talent. KC has a rebuilding offensive line, an aging LJ in the backfield, and little receiving talent to support Dwayne Bowe. They also traded Tony Gonzalez, a huge loss for the passing game. Cassel should have some good games, but I think he'll prove too unreliable to start every week.
15) Eli Manning
ADP: 108.7 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks, released RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Eli has now lost his top two receiving targets in successive seasons. Luckily for the Giants, their offensive line and running game remain elite. There is a positive, and that's the young talent they do boast in the passing game, but they are without a single proven talent at the position. Dominick Hixon has been a solid deep threat thus far, Steve Smith is an emerging possession receiver, and both Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks offer a lot of talent. If two of these receivers can take a step forward this season, Eli should be a solid QB2. The nature of the Giants run-first offense simply doesn't allow for much fantasy potential, but a Brandon Jacobs injury would change that.
16) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 109.1 (9th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, released RB Maurice Morris
Overview: Hasselbeck suffered through an injury-prone 2008, and he turns 34 when the season starts. Housh finally offers him a reliable #1 WR, but Housh simply isn't a true #1 WR. Deion Branch is returning from yet another knee injury, and they still have the same mess of unproven WRs behind those top two. One bright spot is John Carlson, who finally gives Seattle a great weapon at the TE position in the passing game. Let someone else grab an aging, injury-prone QB with average passing game weapons.
17) David Garrard
ADP: 120.0 (10th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Torry Holt, released WR Jerry Porter, released WR Matt Jones, released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Garrard is what he is...a decent QB2 with little upside and little downside. Jacksonville gets most of their offensive line back along with adding two talented youngsters in the draft. MJD is an all-around stud in the backfield. Holt is a nice, reliable addition, but he's no longer the deep threat stud he's been in the past. Mike Walker is talented, but has dealt with knee injuries his entire career. Matt Jones is a loss as Garrard built a nice chemistry with him last season and he provided a tall deep threat. Jacksonville re-fueled with younsters in the draft, but none project to make an immediate impact. If Walker can stay healthy, Garrard could have the most reliable weapons of his career, but that's a big if.
18) Kyle Orton
ADP: 126.6 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Orton is the new starting QB of the Denver Broncos.
Overview: Orton is an excellent QB2 this year. Orton showed fringe QB1 value with the Bears last season prior to an ankle injury derailing his season, and that was pretty impressive with the lack of passing weapons he had at his disposal. Now he has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and possibly Tony Scheffler if DEN decides to use him. Denver also drafted Knowshon Moreno who is proficient in the passing game. Orton might have gotten a bad rap in Chicago, and he didn't really have ideal arm strength, but his intelligence and accuracy will play well in Denver's new offense.
19) Trent Edwards
ADP: 145.7 (13th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Edwards hit the jackpot, on the surface, when the Bills added Terrell Owens. Owens has a nice history of behaving in his 1st season on a new team, but Buffalo could be different as Owens begins to decline, and as the offense won't be all about him in the passing game. He will now have to share targets with Lee Evans, and Edwards doesn't have the big arm that both McNabb and Romo do. Buffalo also loves to run the ball, so Owens won't see a boatload of targets. Edwards is certainly worth the risk as a QB2 with such a dynamic WR duo, and with both Lynch and Fred Jackson, who possess passing game value out of the backfield.
20) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 146.1 (13th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Delhomme decided to turn in the worst game of his career when the Panthers needed him most against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That probably left a sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths, and as well it should. Delhomme continues to age, and after being a popular sleeper last year, he proved yet again that he's nothing more than a QB2. Carolina boasts little opposite Steve Smith, and they remain committed to running the ball with 2 great talents in the backfield. It's a shame as both Williams and Stewart could be proficient in the passing game if they were used more, but Delhomme is someone to draft only if he has a solid matchup the week your stud is on bye.
21) Joe Flacco
ADP: 177.4 (15th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to Matt Ryan, Flacco's similarly impressive rookie season went somewhat under the radar. It's true that Flacco was supported by an elite defense and a great rushing attack, but he showed excellent poise in big situations, and he certainly showed off his big arm when called upon. He should continue to improve in the 2nd season, but thanks to the run-first offense, losing Derrick Mason, and a lack of other passing game weapons, Flacco won't be much more than a blah QB2 this season.
22) Marc Bulger
ADP: 178.6 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, released WR Drew Bennett.
Overview: I'll keep this short. His starting receivers are Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton. He's nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel backup QB.
23) Chad Pennington
ADP: 182.0 (16th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Miami has some interesting young talent at WR with Ted Ginn and Davone Bess, but they will remain a run-first team. Pennington's arm continues to get weaker, and he has Chad Henne nipping at his heels. Pass.
24) Jason Campbell
ADP: 187.0 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Campbell was a disaster last season, but he's going to be plenty motivated to recover in his contract season. The other good thing going for him is that this will be his 2nd season in Jim Zorn's offense as offensive system stability has not been a part of Campbell's past dating back to college. Campbell remains a talented young QB, but whether or not he's a good WCO fit is very much up in the air. He's a good upside QB2 to take for those who have already drafted an elite option, and I'd rather have him than guys like Pennington, Bulger, etc.
Other QBs To Keep An Eye On:
Brett Favre - Favre has joined the Vikings finally, and he should prove to be a reasonable QB2 with a bit of upside. He has great downfield weapons in Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sydney Rice with one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him, and needless to say an elite RB behind him in Adrian Peterson. His slightly torn rotator cuff scares me a bit at his age, but he should be pretty reliable to pair with someone like Schaub or Palmer.
Brady Quinn - Quinn is expected to win the starting job for the Browns, but that's not set in stone yet. With little outside of Braylon Edwards to throw to, he doesn't possess the weapons necessary to be a total sleeper, but he's also someone to take a chance on to see how he fares if he wins the job.
Alex Smith/Shaun Hill - Another QB battle, this time in SF. This will be a conservative offense that revolves around Frank Gore, but with Josh Morgan, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, SF boasts good talent at the receiving positions that would make whoever starts a reasonable QB2 option.
ADP: 90.1 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, signed WR Laveranues Coles
Overview: How the mighty have fallen, which is the perfect opportunity for value. Carson Palmer is my value pick of the year for quarterbacks. He's being drafted as a very late QB1, or a QB2 in some instances. Palmer is not without risk as his exact elbow injury is still a mystery, but he's proclaimed himself 100%, and if he looks good in the preseason, jump on him. Housh has left, but he's been replaced by Coles, who boasts a similar skillset and toughness. Add in the rumored maturity and re-dedication of Chris Henry, and the expected emergence of Andre Caldwell, and Palmer still has an enviable setting of passing game weapons. Benson isn't going to be lighting the world on fire in the backfield, so Cincy will pass plenty. Ensure that you get a reliable backup given the uncertain nature of his elbow injury, but go get Palmer this year.
14) Matt Cassel
ADP: 101.4 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Cassel is the new starting QB of the Chiefs.
Overview: I don't like Cassel as a QB1 this year. Some may look at his body of work last year, especially down the stretch, and assume that Cassel is a breakout candidate. The good thing for Cassel is that he'll be playing in a similar spread offense as KC's new coach Todd Haley often employed the same scheme last season. The bad thing is that this is not New England's passing talent. KC has a rebuilding offensive line, an aging LJ in the backfield, and little receiving talent to support Dwayne Bowe. They also traded Tony Gonzalez, a huge loss for the passing game. Cassel should have some good games, but I think he'll prove too unreliable to start every week.
15) Eli Manning
ADP: 108.7 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks, released RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Eli has now lost his top two receiving targets in successive seasons. Luckily for the Giants, their offensive line and running game remain elite. There is a positive, and that's the young talent they do boast in the passing game, but they are without a single proven talent at the position. Dominick Hixon has been a solid deep threat thus far, Steve Smith is an emerging possession receiver, and both Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks offer a lot of talent. If two of these receivers can take a step forward this season, Eli should be a solid QB2. The nature of the Giants run-first offense simply doesn't allow for much fantasy potential, but a Brandon Jacobs injury would change that.
16) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 109.1 (9th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, released RB Maurice Morris
Overview: Hasselbeck suffered through an injury-prone 2008, and he turns 34 when the season starts. Housh finally offers him a reliable #1 WR, but Housh simply isn't a true #1 WR. Deion Branch is returning from yet another knee injury, and they still have the same mess of unproven WRs behind those top two. One bright spot is John Carlson, who finally gives Seattle a great weapon at the TE position in the passing game. Let someone else grab an aging, injury-prone QB with average passing game weapons.
17) David Garrard
ADP: 120.0 (10th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Torry Holt, released WR Jerry Porter, released WR Matt Jones, released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Garrard is what he is...a decent QB2 with little upside and little downside. Jacksonville gets most of their offensive line back along with adding two talented youngsters in the draft. MJD is an all-around stud in the backfield. Holt is a nice, reliable addition, but he's no longer the deep threat stud he's been in the past. Mike Walker is talented, but has dealt with knee injuries his entire career. Matt Jones is a loss as Garrard built a nice chemistry with him last season and he provided a tall deep threat. Jacksonville re-fueled with younsters in the draft, but none project to make an immediate impact. If Walker can stay healthy, Garrard could have the most reliable weapons of his career, but that's a big if.
18) Kyle Orton
ADP: 126.6 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Orton is the new starting QB of the Denver Broncos.
Overview: Orton is an excellent QB2 this year. Orton showed fringe QB1 value with the Bears last season prior to an ankle injury derailing his season, and that was pretty impressive with the lack of passing weapons he had at his disposal. Now he has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and possibly Tony Scheffler if DEN decides to use him. Denver also drafted Knowshon Moreno who is proficient in the passing game. Orton might have gotten a bad rap in Chicago, and he didn't really have ideal arm strength, but his intelligence and accuracy will play well in Denver's new offense.
19) Trent Edwards
ADP: 145.7 (13th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Edwards hit the jackpot, on the surface, when the Bills added Terrell Owens. Owens has a nice history of behaving in his 1st season on a new team, but Buffalo could be different as Owens begins to decline, and as the offense won't be all about him in the passing game. He will now have to share targets with Lee Evans, and Edwards doesn't have the big arm that both McNabb and Romo do. Buffalo also loves to run the ball, so Owens won't see a boatload of targets. Edwards is certainly worth the risk as a QB2 with such a dynamic WR duo, and with both Lynch and Fred Jackson, who possess passing game value out of the backfield.
20) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 146.1 (13th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Delhomme decided to turn in the worst game of his career when the Panthers needed him most against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That probably left a sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths, and as well it should. Delhomme continues to age, and after being a popular sleeper last year, he proved yet again that he's nothing more than a QB2. Carolina boasts little opposite Steve Smith, and they remain committed to running the ball with 2 great talents in the backfield. It's a shame as both Williams and Stewart could be proficient in the passing game if they were used more, but Delhomme is someone to draft only if he has a solid matchup the week your stud is on bye.
21) Joe Flacco
ADP: 177.4 (15th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to Matt Ryan, Flacco's similarly impressive rookie season went somewhat under the radar. It's true that Flacco was supported by an elite defense and a great rushing attack, but he showed excellent poise in big situations, and he certainly showed off his big arm when called upon. He should continue to improve in the 2nd season, but thanks to the run-first offense, losing Derrick Mason, and a lack of other passing game weapons, Flacco won't be much more than a blah QB2 this season.
22) Marc Bulger
ADP: 178.6 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, released WR Drew Bennett.
Overview: I'll keep this short. His starting receivers are Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton. He's nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel backup QB.
23) Chad Pennington
ADP: 182.0 (16th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Miami has some interesting young talent at WR with Ted Ginn and Davone Bess, but they will remain a run-first team. Pennington's arm continues to get weaker, and he has Chad Henne nipping at his heels. Pass.
24) Jason Campbell
ADP: 187.0 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Campbell was a disaster last season, but he's going to be plenty motivated to recover in his contract season. The other good thing going for him is that this will be his 2nd season in Jim Zorn's offense as offensive system stability has not been a part of Campbell's past dating back to college. Campbell remains a talented young QB, but whether or not he's a good WCO fit is very much up in the air. He's a good upside QB2 to take for those who have already drafted an elite option, and I'd rather have him than guys like Pennington, Bulger, etc.
Other QBs To Keep An Eye On:
Brett Favre - Favre has joined the Vikings finally, and he should prove to be a reasonable QB2 with a bit of upside. He has great downfield weapons in Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sydney Rice with one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him, and needless to say an elite RB behind him in Adrian Peterson. His slightly torn rotator cuff scares me a bit at his age, but he should be pretty reliable to pair with someone like Schaub or Palmer.
Brady Quinn - Quinn is expected to win the starting job for the Browns, but that's not set in stone yet. With little outside of Braylon Edwards to throw to, he doesn't possess the weapons necessary to be a total sleeper, but he's also someone to take a chance on to see how he fares if he wins the job.
Alex Smith/Shaun Hill - Another QB battle, this time in SF. This will be a conservative offense that revolves around Frank Gore, but with Josh Morgan, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, SF boasts good talent at the receiving positions that would make whoever starts a reasonable QB2 option.
Monday, July 20, 2009
2009 QB1 Value Analysis Review
1) Drew Brees
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 2nd
What Happened: There's really not much to review here. Drew Brees was the consensus #1 FF QB in 2009 drafts, and he finished 2nd. He had a lot of weapons around him, and they mostly stayed healthy, so he gave his owners exactly what they expected this season. There's no reason to think he won't be one of the 2 top QBs off the board next season as well. My preseason value ranking was correct.
2) Tom Brady
Preseason Value: Slightly Overvalued
Final Ranking: 4th
What Happened: For some reason, it seems like Brady slightly disappointed this season, but that's probably because of the lofty expectations that persisted after his monster 2007 season. Even though Brady did start slow despite his excellent preseason, he finished strong and his numbers were there when all was said and done. He did finish 20 points behind the top 3, however. My preseason value ranking was within reason.
3) Peyton Manning
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 3rd
What Happened: Just like Drew Brees, Manning gave his owners exactly what they expected, but it was a shame that the Colts ran away with the AFC so early because he was not startable in week 16. That aside, he was great all season long and was as consistent as anyone. Despite Anthony Gonzalez missing the entire season, youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up in big ways, and Dallas Clark was an absolute monster. My preseason value ranking was correct.
4) Kurt Warner
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 12th
What Happened: Warner actually made it through 16 games, but he often played at less than 100% thanks to his offseason hip surgery. He tossed in some big games, but he was mostly a disappointment, barely finishing as a starting QB in a 12 team league. His age showed and he often lacked zip on his throws. His downfield throwing was a big problem for a chunk of the season. He was a disappointment. My preseason value ranking was correct.
5) Phillip Rivers
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 5th
What Happened: I honestly don't know what the hell I was thinking with Rivers' ranking. Rivers had a great 2008 season coming off of ACL surgery, so he was a year farther removed from that injury, and I had LT ranked low because I felt he was in decline, which should have triggered me to think that Rivers would have another big year without a dominant rushing attack being the focal point of the offensive philosophy. Rivers did exactly what he was expected to do and has solidified himself as a top fantasy QB. My preseason value ranking was definitely incorrect.
6) Tony Romo
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 8th
What Happened: I said this should be interesting, and it was. Romo had a huge week 1, went into the tank for a few weeks without a consistent playmaker, and then Miles Austin happened. Romo, equipped with a TO-like playmaker in Austin, went right back to being a QB1 with lots of upside. Roy Williams even settled into his role as a tertiary target behind Austin and Witten. Romo owners can thank Miles Austin for giving them exactly what they drafted Romo to be. My preseason value ranking was incorrect, thanks to Miles Austin.
7) Aaron Rodgers
Preseason Value: Slightly Undervalued
Final Ranking: 1st
What Happened: Rodgers was an absolute monster this season, spreading the ball around to his vast array of talented receivers, and rarely turning the ball over. What was especially impressive was the fact Rodgers took so many sacks thanks to a shaky offensive line, and he was on the run for the majority of the first half of the season. Thanks to his mobility, he continued to make plays despite being flushed out of the pocket so often. My preseason value ranking was spot-on.
8) Donovan McNabb
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 11th
What Happened: McNabb mostly fulfilled expectations, but thanks to a rib injury that knocked him out of week 1 and kept him out through week 4, his overall stats suffered. Now, McNabb has always been injury-prone, so I should have factored that into his ranking. From week 5 onwards, he only had one game in which he didn't throw at least 1 TD, which is excellent consistency from a QB not drafted among the elite. McNabb met expectations, but did not exceed them, and because of this my preseason value ranking was incorrect.
9) Jay Cutler
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 14th
What Happened: Cutler put up a vomit sandwich in week 1, rebounded with several nice games, and then was mostly unstartable over the rest of the season. Cutler simply lacked passing game weapons with the relentless double teams against new BFF Greg Olsen, and his decision making was absolutely horrid as he tried to force throws into receivers that simply could not make plays for him. This should have been obvious heading into the season, but I think the Bears fan in me wanted to hope other things would happen. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
10) Matt Ryan
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 19th
What Happened: Ryan started off great, but he hit a wall mid-season, and he simply did not meet expectations prior to a turf toe injury derailing the end of his season. His ranking would have been better if not for that injury as it cost him 3 games, but he simply was not a QB1 during the 2nd half of the season, and it didn't help that Michael Turner got hurt and the rushing attack wasn't the same without him. The kid is still a future stud, and if the Falcons can upgrade the 2nd receiver position, he'll be an excellent value in 2010. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
11) Matt Schaub
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 6th
What Happened: Schaub stayed healthy for 16 games and showed the potential he's had all along. Armed with a dangerous set of receiving options in a pass-first offense, Schaub posted great numbers all season long, and he should be here to stay among the elite QB1s for several seasons. Losing Owen Daniels was a big blow, but Schaub rebounded and found other secondary targets down the stretch. My preseason value ranking was correct.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Preseason Value: Appropriately ValuedFinal Ranking: 9th
What Happened: Big Ben found himself in the middle of a pass-first offense for the first time in his career, and he did his best to capitalize on it. Between Holmes, Ward, and Miller, Big Ben had great receiving talent around him, and the Pittsburgh coaching staff realized that by putting the ball in his hands to win games. He posted solid numbers for most of the season and had a monster finish. He was definitely worth his draft slot, and he was a surefire QB1 down the stretch. My preseason value analysis was correct.
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 2nd
What Happened: There's really not much to review here. Drew Brees was the consensus #1 FF QB in 2009 drafts, and he finished 2nd. He had a lot of weapons around him, and they mostly stayed healthy, so he gave his owners exactly what they expected this season. There's no reason to think he won't be one of the 2 top QBs off the board next season as well. My preseason value ranking was correct.
2) Tom Brady
Preseason Value: Slightly Overvalued
Final Ranking: 4th
What Happened: For some reason, it seems like Brady slightly disappointed this season, but that's probably because of the lofty expectations that persisted after his monster 2007 season. Even though Brady did start slow despite his excellent preseason, he finished strong and his numbers were there when all was said and done. He did finish 20 points behind the top 3, however. My preseason value ranking was within reason.
3) Peyton Manning
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 3rd
What Happened: Just like Drew Brees, Manning gave his owners exactly what they expected, but it was a shame that the Colts ran away with the AFC so early because he was not startable in week 16. That aside, he was great all season long and was as consistent as anyone. Despite Anthony Gonzalez missing the entire season, youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up in big ways, and Dallas Clark was an absolute monster. My preseason value ranking was correct.
4) Kurt Warner
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 12th
What Happened: Warner actually made it through 16 games, but he often played at less than 100% thanks to his offseason hip surgery. He tossed in some big games, but he was mostly a disappointment, barely finishing as a starting QB in a 12 team league. His age showed and he often lacked zip on his throws. His downfield throwing was a big problem for a chunk of the season. He was a disappointment. My preseason value ranking was correct.
5) Phillip Rivers
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 5th
What Happened: I honestly don't know what the hell I was thinking with Rivers' ranking. Rivers had a great 2008 season coming off of ACL surgery, so he was a year farther removed from that injury, and I had LT ranked low because I felt he was in decline, which should have triggered me to think that Rivers would have another big year without a dominant rushing attack being the focal point of the offensive philosophy. Rivers did exactly what he was expected to do and has solidified himself as a top fantasy QB. My preseason value ranking was definitely incorrect.
6) Tony Romo
Preseason Value: Overvalued
Final Ranking: 8th
What Happened: I said this should be interesting, and it was. Romo had a huge week 1, went into the tank for a few weeks without a consistent playmaker, and then Miles Austin happened. Romo, equipped with a TO-like playmaker in Austin, went right back to being a QB1 with lots of upside. Roy Williams even settled into his role as a tertiary target behind Austin and Witten. Romo owners can thank Miles Austin for giving them exactly what they drafted Romo to be. My preseason value ranking was incorrect, thanks to Miles Austin.
7) Aaron Rodgers
Preseason Value: Slightly Undervalued
Final Ranking: 1st
What Happened: Rodgers was an absolute monster this season, spreading the ball around to his vast array of talented receivers, and rarely turning the ball over. What was especially impressive was the fact Rodgers took so many sacks thanks to a shaky offensive line, and he was on the run for the majority of the first half of the season. Thanks to his mobility, he continued to make plays despite being flushed out of the pocket so often. My preseason value ranking was spot-on.
8) Donovan McNabb
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 11th
What Happened: McNabb mostly fulfilled expectations, but thanks to a rib injury that knocked him out of week 1 and kept him out through week 4, his overall stats suffered. Now, McNabb has always been injury-prone, so I should have factored that into his ranking. From week 5 onwards, he only had one game in which he didn't throw at least 1 TD, which is excellent consistency from a QB not drafted among the elite. McNabb met expectations, but did not exceed them, and because of this my preseason value ranking was incorrect.
9) Jay Cutler
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 14th
What Happened: Cutler put up a vomit sandwich in week 1, rebounded with several nice games, and then was mostly unstartable over the rest of the season. Cutler simply lacked passing game weapons with the relentless double teams against new BFF Greg Olsen, and his decision making was absolutely horrid as he tried to force throws into receivers that simply could not make plays for him. This should have been obvious heading into the season, but I think the Bears fan in me wanted to hope other things would happen. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
10) Matt Ryan
Preseason Value: Appropriately Valued
Final Ranking: 19th
What Happened: Ryan started off great, but he hit a wall mid-season, and he simply did not meet expectations prior to a turf toe injury derailing the end of his season. His ranking would have been better if not for that injury as it cost him 3 games, but he simply was not a QB1 during the 2nd half of the season, and it didn't help that Michael Turner got hurt and the rushing attack wasn't the same without him. The kid is still a future stud, and if the Falcons can upgrade the 2nd receiver position, he'll be an excellent value in 2010. My preseason value ranking was incorrect.
11) Matt Schaub
Preseason Value: Undervalued
Final Ranking: 6th
What Happened: Schaub stayed healthy for 16 games and showed the potential he's had all along. Armed with a dangerous set of receiving options in a pass-first offense, Schaub posted great numbers all season long, and he should be here to stay among the elite QB1s for several seasons. Losing Owen Daniels was a big blow, but Schaub rebounded and found other secondary targets down the stretch. My preseason value ranking was correct.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Preseason Value: Appropriately ValuedFinal Ranking: 9th
What Happened: Big Ben found himself in the middle of a pass-first offense for the first time in his career, and he did his best to capitalize on it. Between Holmes, Ward, and Miller, Big Ben had great receiving talent around him, and the Pittsburgh coaching staff realized that by putting the ball in his hands to win games. He posted solid numbers for most of the season and had a monster finish. He was definitely worth his draft slot, and he was a surefire QB1 down the stretch. My preseason value analysis was correct.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
2009 NFL Draft Fantasy Football QB/RB Analysis
QB:
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has a big arm, but his accuracy at the college level concerns me a bit. I've read that one of the best statistics to consider when determining success as a future NFL QB is the combination of college starts (experience) and completion percentage (accuracy). Stafford certainly has the experience, but his completion percentage didn't reach 60% until his senior year. He moves into a transitioning NFL offense that does boast a stud #1 WR in Calvin Johnson and an emerging RB in Kevin Smith. They have little to nothing at the WR position behind CJ, and their TE position is led by fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew. There's growing speculation that he'll start in week 1, and given only Daunte Culpepper is in the way, that might not be far fetched.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez is on the opposite end of the 2 category spectrum as Stafford. Sanchez only started 1 full season, but he completed an impressive 65.8% of his passes last year. Sanchez enters an offense that he'll likely lead in week 1, and he has the intangible leadership qualities and personality that one looks for in a starting QB. The Jets have a quality offensive line, and they boast a solid trio of RBs in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene. The problem is that Jerricho Cotchery is not a true #1 WR, and there's some interesting but unproven talent behind him. They also boast a great receiving TE in Dustin Keller. All in all he has a solid situation around him, and a great defense on the other side of the ball. There's a possibility he emerges as a QB2 in 2009.
The rest of the QBs drafted do not have a chance of starting in 2009 except in an emergency.
RB:
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno may be 3rd on the depth chart right now, but it's going to take a poor performance by him in the preseason to keep him from being the unquestioned starter. With his receiving talent and willingness to block, he'll be the 3rd down RB at the very worst to start the season. The only thing Moreno doesn't possess is top-end speed, but NE's offensive system that McDaniels is bringing to Denver doesn't need it. Moreno was the best talent in a weak offensive draft class, and he should be the most valuable fantasy RB in 2009.
Donald Brown - Yes, the Colts have Joseph Addai, but he wore down badly in 2007, and suffered through an injury-filled 2008 as well. It's clear that Addai is no feature RB, thus the addition of Donald Brown. Brown is another heady, do-it-all RB just like Addai was coming out of college. It's possible that Brown could post a big preseason and take Addai's job, but odds are he'll play the role Addai did in 2006 as the slightly lesser tag team partner that alternates some good games with those where he doesn't get the ball enough.
Chris Wells - Goodbye Edge, hello Beanie. Tim Hightower seems slated as more of a change-of-pace RB given his erratic play, so Wells should immediately have a chance to win the 1st and 2nd down RB position for the Cardinals. His limitations in receiving and blocking will keep him from seeing the field as much as I expect Moreno to, and Hightower already proved to be an asset in those situations as a rookie. The biggest problem is that Hightower was a solid goal line RB last season, so Wells will have a challenge to win those duties. There's too many role question marks to take him as anything more than a RB3.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy's skill set is eerily similar to Brian Westbrook when he came out of college. McCoy is extremely explosive, but has question marks when it comes to inside running. McCoy is very interesting as Westbrook's ankle surgery could limit him to start the 2009 season, and he'll have every opportunity to win the backup RB position in the preseason. His receiving skills and explosiveness should get him on the field regardless.
Shonn Greene - Greene was really interesting when Thomas Jones was holding out, but with TJ back, his value will be dependent on TJ breaking down this season, which remains a possibility at his age. Greene is a powerful inside runner who complements Leon Washington very well, so he would immediately be an RB2 candidate should TJ go down. He'll be 3rd string to start the season barring an injury.
Glen Coffee - Coffee will be a pure backup for Frank Gore to start the season. He doesn't offer nearly the receiving game prowess that Gore offers, so his value certainly won't be the same should Gore get hurt. He'll be given the chance to win the backup RB position.
Andre Brown - Brown was drafted by the Giants to essentially replace Derrick Ward's roster spot, although Ahmad Bradshaw will slide into Ward's role in the offense. While 3rd string, the potent Giants rushing attack and Brandon Jacobs' fragility warrant keeping Brown in mind.
James Davis - Here's a sleeper to file away in your memory bank. Jamal Lewis is certainly slowing down, and while Jerome Harrison is an explosive talent, he doesn't really profile as a 20 carry RB, possibly opening the door for the bigger Davis should Lewis suffer an injury or simply run ineffectively.
Bernard Scott - Another sleeper to keep in mind. With only Cedric Benson owning a guaranteed role at RB, Scott has a chance to impress and potentially carve out a significant role should something happen to Benson. Brian Leonard and Kenny Watson start out ahead of him on the depth chart, but Leonard has never impressed as a RB when Steven Jackson got hurt in STL, and Watson is aging with injury concerns.
Rashad Jennings - Jennings was the last RB taken, and played at a small school in Liberty, but scouts leading up to the draft were impressed with his skillset. MJD and Greg Jones will handle most of the carries, but should an injury befall one of them, Jennings would have a chance at a sizeable role in the offense should he beat out Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman to stay off the practice squad.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has a big arm, but his accuracy at the college level concerns me a bit. I've read that one of the best statistics to consider when determining success as a future NFL QB is the combination of college starts (experience) and completion percentage (accuracy). Stafford certainly has the experience, but his completion percentage didn't reach 60% until his senior year. He moves into a transitioning NFL offense that does boast a stud #1 WR in Calvin Johnson and an emerging RB in Kevin Smith. They have little to nothing at the WR position behind CJ, and their TE position is led by fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew. There's growing speculation that he'll start in week 1, and given only Daunte Culpepper is in the way, that might not be far fetched.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez is on the opposite end of the 2 category spectrum as Stafford. Sanchez only started 1 full season, but he completed an impressive 65.8% of his passes last year. Sanchez enters an offense that he'll likely lead in week 1, and he has the intangible leadership qualities and personality that one looks for in a starting QB. The Jets have a quality offensive line, and they boast a solid trio of RBs in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene. The problem is that Jerricho Cotchery is not a true #1 WR, and there's some interesting but unproven talent behind him. They also boast a great receiving TE in Dustin Keller. All in all he has a solid situation around him, and a great defense on the other side of the ball. There's a possibility he emerges as a QB2 in 2009.
The rest of the QBs drafted do not have a chance of starting in 2009 except in an emergency.
RB:
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno may be 3rd on the depth chart right now, but it's going to take a poor performance by him in the preseason to keep him from being the unquestioned starter. With his receiving talent and willingness to block, he'll be the 3rd down RB at the very worst to start the season. The only thing Moreno doesn't possess is top-end speed, but NE's offensive system that McDaniels is bringing to Denver doesn't need it. Moreno was the best talent in a weak offensive draft class, and he should be the most valuable fantasy RB in 2009.
Donald Brown - Yes, the Colts have Joseph Addai, but he wore down badly in 2007, and suffered through an injury-filled 2008 as well. It's clear that Addai is no feature RB, thus the addition of Donald Brown. Brown is another heady, do-it-all RB just like Addai was coming out of college. It's possible that Brown could post a big preseason and take Addai's job, but odds are he'll play the role Addai did in 2006 as the slightly lesser tag team partner that alternates some good games with those where he doesn't get the ball enough.
Chris Wells - Goodbye Edge, hello Beanie. Tim Hightower seems slated as more of a change-of-pace RB given his erratic play, so Wells should immediately have a chance to win the 1st and 2nd down RB position for the Cardinals. His limitations in receiving and blocking will keep him from seeing the field as much as I expect Moreno to, and Hightower already proved to be an asset in those situations as a rookie. The biggest problem is that Hightower was a solid goal line RB last season, so Wells will have a challenge to win those duties. There's too many role question marks to take him as anything more than a RB3.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy's skill set is eerily similar to Brian Westbrook when he came out of college. McCoy is extremely explosive, but has question marks when it comes to inside running. McCoy is very interesting as Westbrook's ankle surgery could limit him to start the 2009 season, and he'll have every opportunity to win the backup RB position in the preseason. His receiving skills and explosiveness should get him on the field regardless.
Shonn Greene - Greene was really interesting when Thomas Jones was holding out, but with TJ back, his value will be dependent on TJ breaking down this season, which remains a possibility at his age. Greene is a powerful inside runner who complements Leon Washington very well, so he would immediately be an RB2 candidate should TJ go down. He'll be 3rd string to start the season barring an injury.
Glen Coffee - Coffee will be a pure backup for Frank Gore to start the season. He doesn't offer nearly the receiving game prowess that Gore offers, so his value certainly won't be the same should Gore get hurt. He'll be given the chance to win the backup RB position.
Andre Brown - Brown was drafted by the Giants to essentially replace Derrick Ward's roster spot, although Ahmad Bradshaw will slide into Ward's role in the offense. While 3rd string, the potent Giants rushing attack and Brandon Jacobs' fragility warrant keeping Brown in mind.
James Davis - Here's a sleeper to file away in your memory bank. Jamal Lewis is certainly slowing down, and while Jerome Harrison is an explosive talent, he doesn't really profile as a 20 carry RB, possibly opening the door for the bigger Davis should Lewis suffer an injury or simply run ineffectively.
Bernard Scott - Another sleeper to keep in mind. With only Cedric Benson owning a guaranteed role at RB, Scott has a chance to impress and potentially carve out a significant role should something happen to Benson. Brian Leonard and Kenny Watson start out ahead of him on the depth chart, but Leonard has never impressed as a RB when Steven Jackson got hurt in STL, and Watson is aging with injury concerns.
Rashad Jennings - Jennings was the last RB taken, and played at a small school in Liberty, but scouts leading up to the draft were impressed with his skillset. MJD and Greg Jones will handle most of the carries, but should an injury befall one of them, Jennings would have a chance at a sizeable role in the offense should he beat out Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman to stay off the practice squad.
TE Tony Gonzalez Traded To Atlanta Falcons
The Kansas City Chiefs have traded TE Tony Gonzalez to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2010 3rd round pick. KC's new GM Scott Pioli has an outstanding draft history, so this is a win for both teams. The Chiefs will likely make good use of the draft pick, and Atlanta gets a secondary receiving target that they sorely needed opposite Roddy White.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
QB Jay Cutler Traded To Chicago Bears
Better late than never, right? It's about time to start looking at fantasy football again. :D
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Bills Sign WR Terrell Owens
The Bills have signed WR Terrell Owens to a one year contract.
Hmm. The Bills have been unable to find a WR opposite Lee Evans, seemingly because they just never valued what Evans could accomplish without being double and triple teamed all game long. They finally mean business and have acquired someone sure to keep plenty of attention on himself, good and bad. As we've seen in the past, if Owens isn't winning, Owens is a problem. The AFC East continues to stay very tough, and we have to question if the Bills were really a WR away from making a serious run. This could end very badly, although the 1 year deal is perfect as it'll help motivate Owens to behave well.
Fantasy Impact: This is an interesting situation, and it ultimately comes down to Trent Edwards being able to stay healthy, something he hasn't done in either college or the NFL. Edwards is a quality QB, but he's not the talent that Tony Romo is. On paper, the Bills have a solid offensive line, 2 excellent WRs to help keep attention off each other, and a pair of talented RBs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.
Given Jauron's conservative history, the uncertainty of what type of QB Trent Edwards is, and the very tough division the Bills play in, Terrell Owens has seen his fantasy stock fall. His targets, catches, and TDs all project to drop, so the likely case is that he'll be over-valued on draft day. He can still put up WR1 numbers if things break right, but he has far more working against him in Buffalo than he did in Dallas.
Hmm. The Bills have been unable to find a WR opposite Lee Evans, seemingly because they just never valued what Evans could accomplish without being double and triple teamed all game long. They finally mean business and have acquired someone sure to keep plenty of attention on himself, good and bad. As we've seen in the past, if Owens isn't winning, Owens is a problem. The AFC East continues to stay very tough, and we have to question if the Bills were really a WR away from making a serious run. This could end very badly, although the 1 year deal is perfect as it'll help motivate Owens to behave well.
Fantasy Impact: This is an interesting situation, and it ultimately comes down to Trent Edwards being able to stay healthy, something he hasn't done in either college or the NFL. Edwards is a quality QB, but he's not the talent that Tony Romo is. On paper, the Bills have a solid offensive line, 2 excellent WRs to help keep attention off each other, and a pair of talented RBs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.
Given Jauron's conservative history, the uncertainty of what type of QB Trent Edwards is, and the very tough division the Bills play in, Terrell Owens has seen his fantasy stock fall. His targets, catches, and TDs all project to drop, so the likely case is that he'll be over-valued on draft day. He can still put up WR1 numbers if things break right, but he has far more working against him in Buffalo than he did in Dallas.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Free Agency Period Analysis
Now that some of the smoke has settled, let's take a look at the fantasy impact the free agency period has produced:
QB:
Matt Cassel - Cassel was traded from the Patriots to the Chiefs. His value obviously gets a boost as he'll be the starter for KC in 2009, as to where he was reliant on Tom Brady's injury to continue starting in NE. I'm not entirely sold on his talent as there's such a small sample to look at, but he does have receiving talent in KC with Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent, Mark Bradley. Jamaal Charles is also an excellent 3rd down RB. It remains to be seen who will be running the ball for them. I think he has a chance to be a good QB2, and possibly a borderline QB1 in 2009.
Sage Rosenfels - Rosenfels was traded from the Texans to the Vikings. Much like Cassel, his value goes up as well as he'll most likely be the Vikings starter in 2009 instead of backing up injury-prone Matt Schaub in Houston. He's mistake-prone, and he's moving from a pass-first offense in Houston with lots of weapons to a run-first offense in Minnesota with medicore weapons outside of deep threat Bernard Berrian, although fellow starter Sydney Rice does indeed have talent. He'll be nothing more than a QB2 in 2009.
Kurt Warner - Warner re-signed with the Cardinals, which was the most ideal situation for his 200 fantasy value. It remains to be seen what the Cardinals will do with Anquan Boldin, but Warner should maintain QB1 value in 2009.
Kerry Collins - Collins re-signed with the Titans, and he'll resume being in the bottom 3rd of possible fantasy QBs in 2009.
Jay Cutler - Rumors had Cutler almost going to either the Bucs or Lions via a 3 way trade that would have brought Matt Cassel to Denver, but neither trade materialized. This has caused a big disconnect between Cutler and new coach Josh McDaniels. While I personally feel McDaniels is an idiot for trying to deal for a lesser QB, his history and relationship with Cassel obviously played a big role in trying to trade for him. Don't expect anything to come of this rift: Cutler will start for Denver in week 1.
Brett Favre - Favre retired, finally, leaving the Jets with almost zero experience at the QB position. A battle between Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff appears to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps something could happen in the draft.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch was arrested for a gun-related charge, and he likely faces at least a 1 game suspension from the league, with rumors stating it might be longer than that. Stay tuned to this story as it develops.
Fred Taylor - Taylor signed with the Patriots, and will battle Maroney for early down carries in 2009. He'll likely be nothing more than a RB4 with moderate upside.
Cedric Benson - Benson re-signed with the Bengals, and he'll likely have the upper hand for their starting RB position. However, look for the Bengals to add talent at the position in the draft.
Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan/J.J. Arrington - Denver clearly solved their logjam at the RB position by signing 3 guys that are medicore talents. Shannahan may have left, but McDaniels certainly isn't improving the RB situation in Denver whatsoever.
LaDainian Tomlinson - LT's situation could get interesting. As it stands right now, LT is slated to make more than recently franchised Darren Sproles, but the Chargers want him to take a paycut. LT is balking, and for obvious reasons because if he returns, he'll undoubtedly be the bigger part of the RB committee. It remains to be seen how this stalemate will be resolved.
Marion Barber/Felix Jones - Jerry Jones came out this week and stated that he wants to return Barber to his previous "closer" role. It certainly dims Barber's 2009 upside, and gives a boon to Felix Jones' value. However, Jerry is smart because this is what's best for the Cowboys offense. With T.O. gone, their 2 best talents outside of Tony Romo play the RB position.
Derrick Ward - Ward signed with the Buccaneers, and he's the favorite to start for the Bucs in week 1. His all-around talent is good as he possess 3 down capability as both a good runner and pass catcher, and Earnest Graham will be coming off of major knee surgery. I can't see him getting 300 carries given his lengthy injury history, but Ward could be a decent RB2 option in 2009.
WR/TE:
Laveranues Coles - Coles signed with the Bengals, and he'll start opposite Chad Johnson in 2009. Coles tends to get banged up, but he's a very tough football player who is similarly reliable to the departed Houshmandzedeh. He cost less than Housh, but provides a similar skill set.
Marvin Harrison - The Colts cut Harrison, and this could mark the end of his excellent career. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Anthony Gonzalez, who's set to see his fantasy value grow quite a bit. Gonzalez should be very nice WR3 in 2009.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall got himself arrested yet again, and while the charges were dropped, it remains likely that the NFL will suspend him yet again. Pay very close attention to this situation as rumors have his suspension ranging from 1-8 games. Given he already received a 1 game suspension last year, I have to think he's in line for a mutiple game suspension this time around.
Terrell Owens - Owens was released by the Cowboys, and as of this moment, 15 teams have publically denied that they're interested in signing him. It's slightly possible that he could become the Barry Bonds of the NFL where all teams refuse to sign him, but I imagine a team that is desparate at WR (TEN?) will eventually give him a home.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant was franchised by the Buccaneers, which was a smart move considering his checkered off-the-field history. He'll be motivated to play well again this year, and the addition of Winslow will keep defenses from keying solely on him.
Kellen Winslow - Winslow was traded from the Browns to the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen what this does to his fantasy value as the Bucs current starting QB is Luke McCown. Unless they add talent at the QB position somehow, it's hard to see McCown doing much to increase Winslow's value over what he saw last year with Anderson/Quinn/Dorsey.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin is still under contract, but he's also still demanding a trade. 2009 NFL Draft Day, or shortly before it, will likely provide the answer to whether he'll be dealt or not.
T.J. Houshmandzedeh - Housh signed with the Seahawks. He'll immediately become their #1 WR, and if Hasselbeck can return to health, Housh should be a solid WR2 in 2009. Hasselbeck is the key to his 2009 value.
Torry Holt - Holt hasn't been released quite yet by the Rams, but it appears to be inevitable at this point. Expect him to sign elsewhere relatively quickly. His stats have taken a nose-dive, but one must consider the awful surrounding offense he's played in the past two seasons. He still runs routes with the best of them.
QB:
Matt Cassel - Cassel was traded from the Patriots to the Chiefs. His value obviously gets a boost as he'll be the starter for KC in 2009, as to where he was reliant on Tom Brady's injury to continue starting in NE. I'm not entirely sold on his talent as there's such a small sample to look at, but he does have receiving talent in KC with Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent, Mark Bradley. Jamaal Charles is also an excellent 3rd down RB. It remains to be seen who will be running the ball for them. I think he has a chance to be a good QB2, and possibly a borderline QB1 in 2009.
Sage Rosenfels - Rosenfels was traded from the Texans to the Vikings. Much like Cassel, his value goes up as well as he'll most likely be the Vikings starter in 2009 instead of backing up injury-prone Matt Schaub in Houston. He's mistake-prone, and he's moving from a pass-first offense in Houston with lots of weapons to a run-first offense in Minnesota with medicore weapons outside of deep threat Bernard Berrian, although fellow starter Sydney Rice does indeed have talent. He'll be nothing more than a QB2 in 2009.
Kurt Warner - Warner re-signed with the Cardinals, which was the most ideal situation for his 200 fantasy value. It remains to be seen what the Cardinals will do with Anquan Boldin, but Warner should maintain QB1 value in 2009.
Kerry Collins - Collins re-signed with the Titans, and he'll resume being in the bottom 3rd of possible fantasy QBs in 2009.
Jay Cutler - Rumors had Cutler almost going to either the Bucs or Lions via a 3 way trade that would have brought Matt Cassel to Denver, but neither trade materialized. This has caused a big disconnect between Cutler and new coach Josh McDaniels. While I personally feel McDaniels is an idiot for trying to deal for a lesser QB, his history and relationship with Cassel obviously played a big role in trying to trade for him. Don't expect anything to come of this rift: Cutler will start for Denver in week 1.
Brett Favre - Favre retired, finally, leaving the Jets with almost zero experience at the QB position. A battle between Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff appears to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps something could happen in the draft.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch was arrested for a gun-related charge, and he likely faces at least a 1 game suspension from the league, with rumors stating it might be longer than that. Stay tuned to this story as it develops.
Fred Taylor - Taylor signed with the Patriots, and will battle Maroney for early down carries in 2009. He'll likely be nothing more than a RB4 with moderate upside.
Cedric Benson - Benson re-signed with the Bengals, and he'll likely have the upper hand for their starting RB position. However, look for the Bengals to add talent at the position in the draft.
Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan/J.J. Arrington - Denver clearly solved their logjam at the RB position by signing 3 guys that are medicore talents. Shannahan may have left, but McDaniels certainly isn't improving the RB situation in Denver whatsoever.
LaDainian Tomlinson - LT's situation could get interesting. As it stands right now, LT is slated to make more than recently franchised Darren Sproles, but the Chargers want him to take a paycut. LT is balking, and for obvious reasons because if he returns, he'll undoubtedly be the bigger part of the RB committee. It remains to be seen how this stalemate will be resolved.
Marion Barber/Felix Jones - Jerry Jones came out this week and stated that he wants to return Barber to his previous "closer" role. It certainly dims Barber's 2009 upside, and gives a boon to Felix Jones' value. However, Jerry is smart because this is what's best for the Cowboys offense. With T.O. gone, their 2 best talents outside of Tony Romo play the RB position.
Derrick Ward - Ward signed with the Buccaneers, and he's the favorite to start for the Bucs in week 1. His all-around talent is good as he possess 3 down capability as both a good runner and pass catcher, and Earnest Graham will be coming off of major knee surgery. I can't see him getting 300 carries given his lengthy injury history, but Ward could be a decent RB2 option in 2009.
WR/TE:
Laveranues Coles - Coles signed with the Bengals, and he'll start opposite Chad Johnson in 2009. Coles tends to get banged up, but he's a very tough football player who is similarly reliable to the departed Houshmandzedeh. He cost less than Housh, but provides a similar skill set.
Marvin Harrison - The Colts cut Harrison, and this could mark the end of his excellent career. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Anthony Gonzalez, who's set to see his fantasy value grow quite a bit. Gonzalez should be very nice WR3 in 2009.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall got himself arrested yet again, and while the charges were dropped, it remains likely that the NFL will suspend him yet again. Pay very close attention to this situation as rumors have his suspension ranging from 1-8 games. Given he already received a 1 game suspension last year, I have to think he's in line for a mutiple game suspension this time around.
Terrell Owens - Owens was released by the Cowboys, and as of this moment, 15 teams have publically denied that they're interested in signing him. It's slightly possible that he could become the Barry Bonds of the NFL where all teams refuse to sign him, but I imagine a team that is desparate at WR (TEN?) will eventually give him a home.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant was franchised by the Buccaneers, which was a smart move considering his checkered off-the-field history. He'll be motivated to play well again this year, and the addition of Winslow will keep defenses from keying solely on him.
Kellen Winslow - Winslow was traded from the Browns to the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen what this does to his fantasy value as the Bucs current starting QB is Luke McCown. Unless they add talent at the QB position somehow, it's hard to see McCown doing much to increase Winslow's value over what he saw last year with Anderson/Quinn/Dorsey.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin is still under contract, but he's also still demanding a trade. 2009 NFL Draft Day, or shortly before it, will likely provide the answer to whether he'll be dealt or not.
T.J. Houshmandzedeh - Housh signed with the Seahawks. He'll immediately become their #1 WR, and if Hasselbeck can return to health, Housh should be a solid WR2 in 2009. Hasselbeck is the key to his 2009 value.
Torry Holt - Holt hasn't been released quite yet by the Rams, but it appears to be inevitable at this point. Expect him to sign elsewhere relatively quickly. His stats have taken a nose-dive, but one must consider the awful surrounding offense he's played in the past two seasons. He still runs routes with the best of them.
TE Value Analysis Recap
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 2nd
Recap: Despite all the bad things that happened to the Cowboys in 2008, and the injuries that Witten suffered, he was still a stud TE.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 4th
Recap: Gates proved once again that he has no problem playing through injuries, which is something I should have known already. Gates turned into another fine season in 2008.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
Overview: Winslow missed 6 games with injuries, and suffered along with the rest of the offense through the other 10 games. He was decent TE1 when he played, but the injuries killed him this year.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 1st
Recap: In a move that nobody saw coming, KC used Tyler Thigpen as their starter, and also adopted the spread offense. Gonzalez was as dominant as ever once that occurred, posting a monster 2nd half of 627 yards and 7 TDs.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Much like Jennings, I went the wrong way with Clark, predicting less receptions and yards to catch up to the TDs, where instead while his TDs did decrease, his yardage increased quite a bit. This was due to the fact I felt Harrison would rebound, thus that impacted my ranking on Clark.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 9th
Recap: Cooley provided excellent yardage for his owners, but the 1 TD stung quite a bit. Still, he was a solid fantasy TE.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries, and he also just never fully integrated himself into the offense.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Pretty hard to perform when you're too busy pissing your coach off.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 23rd
Recap: Heap was told to block, so he blocked, and rarely caught passes.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 16th
Recap: Miller was another victim of the non-existent Steelers passing attack. There just weren't enough balls thrown his way.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: NE is finally souring on the super-talented Watson as he's just not a very good football player.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Crumpler never recovered from his knee injuries, and he never passed Bo Scaife to start.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 12th
Overview: Scheffler started hot, but then missed 4 games, which took a toll on his stats. He was certainly a TE1 when he played.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Overview: Daniels was indeed the best draft day bargain among TEs, turning in an excellent season for his owners.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: 11th
Overview: Olsen still split too much time with Desmond Clark, but he impressed when on the field and turned in a solid TE1 season.
TE Summary:
Hits: Witten, Cooley, Watson, sleepers
Misses: Everyone else.
Another bad group here. My sleepers all turned out to be great value picks, and I owned 2/3 TEs of that group in both of my leagues. They allowed you to focus on all the other positions in the first 10 rounds, and then grab your starting TE after that, which is awesome flexibility. Another thing I plan to improve upon next year along with the value analysis is explaining what I'll be doing in my drafts. I avoided all TEs before the sleepers last year, and I should have been more clear as that would have been quite helpful for those who decided to go with that approach.
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 2nd
Recap: Despite all the bad things that happened to the Cowboys in 2008, and the injuries that Witten suffered, he was still a stud TE.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 4th
Recap: Gates proved once again that he has no problem playing through injuries, which is something I should have known already. Gates turned into another fine season in 2008.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
Overview: Winslow missed 6 games with injuries, and suffered along with the rest of the offense through the other 10 games. He was decent TE1 when he played, but the injuries killed him this year.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 1st
Recap: In a move that nobody saw coming, KC used Tyler Thigpen as their starter, and also adopted the spread offense. Gonzalez was as dominant as ever once that occurred, posting a monster 2nd half of 627 yards and 7 TDs.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Much like Jennings, I went the wrong way with Clark, predicting less receptions and yards to catch up to the TDs, where instead while his TDs did decrease, his yardage increased quite a bit. This was due to the fact I felt Harrison would rebound, thus that impacted my ranking on Clark.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 9th
Recap: Cooley provided excellent yardage for his owners, but the 1 TD stung quite a bit. Still, he was a solid fantasy TE.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries, and he also just never fully integrated himself into the offense.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Pretty hard to perform when you're too busy pissing your coach off.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 23rd
Recap: Heap was told to block, so he blocked, and rarely caught passes.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 16th
Recap: Miller was another victim of the non-existent Steelers passing attack. There just weren't enough balls thrown his way.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: NE is finally souring on the super-talented Watson as he's just not a very good football player.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Crumpler never recovered from his knee injuries, and he never passed Bo Scaife to start.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 12th
Overview: Scheffler started hot, but then missed 4 games, which took a toll on his stats. He was certainly a TE1 when he played.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Overview: Daniels was indeed the best draft day bargain among TEs, turning in an excellent season for his owners.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: 11th
Overview: Olsen still split too much time with Desmond Clark, but he impressed when on the field and turned in a solid TE1 season.
TE Summary:
Hits: Witten, Cooley, Watson, sleepers
Misses: Everyone else.
Another bad group here. My sleepers all turned out to be great value picks, and I owned 2/3 TEs of that group in both of my leagues. They allowed you to focus on all the other positions in the first 10 rounds, and then grab your starting TE after that, which is awesome flexibility. Another thing I plan to improve upon next year along with the value analysis is explaining what I'll be doing in my drafts. I avoided all TEs before the sleepers last year, and I should have been more clear as that would have been quite helpful for those who decided to go with that approach.
WR4 Value Analysis Recap
37) Derrick Mason
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
Recap: Mason is the toughest kind of WR to target, which are the aging veterans. Some throw in one good last season while others go in the tank for good. Mason did the former, thanks to a solid rookie QB season from Joe Flacco. Mason was his go-to guy all year and he turned in a borderline WR2 season.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
Recap: Once Frerotte took over, Berrian exploded. If there was one thing Frerotte could do well, it was get the ball downfield. He missed 2 games with injuries and turned in a few too many clunkers, but was ultimately a fine WR3.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Reggie Williams sucks, and could be out of the NFL.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: I forgot to update Engram's value status in my draft guide as well, which is something I'll have to do a better job of next year when making player updates. Engram suffered both the major injury of a broken shoulder bone, and also the crippling effect that Hasselbeck's injury had on the Seattle passing game. He had no value.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Overview: Curry simply didn't pan out thanks to the erratic Oakland passing game, the coaching change, and all sorts of other things.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Stallworth bombed yet again, this time in a different city.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Jackson actually did some good things when he got on the field, but thanks to the rapid development of Eddie Royal, and the solid presence of Stokley in the slot, he was rarely needed.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Hackett couldn't stay on the field, and never passed Muhammad as a starter. Bust.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Overview: Rice had trouble staying healthy, and then when he was on the field, Berrian and Shiancoe dominated the targets in the run-heavy Vikings offense.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Burleson actually looked pretty solid...in week 1 before tearing up his knee.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Monster bust. Everyone's favorite sleeper sucked a fat one.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish:56th
Recap: Like I said in the presason, there was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. This time, it was a lot more.
WR4 Summary:
Hits: Berrian, Williams, Engram, Hackett
Misses: Everyone else.
Mason and Berrian were the only good WRs here, but luckily since these were bench WRs, they were likely replaced by someone else shortly after the season started.
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
Recap: Mason is the toughest kind of WR to target, which are the aging veterans. Some throw in one good last season while others go in the tank for good. Mason did the former, thanks to a solid rookie QB season from Joe Flacco. Mason was his go-to guy all year and he turned in a borderline WR2 season.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
Recap: Once Frerotte took over, Berrian exploded. If there was one thing Frerotte could do well, it was get the ball downfield. He missed 2 games with injuries and turned in a few too many clunkers, but was ultimately a fine WR3.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Reggie Williams sucks, and could be out of the NFL.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: I forgot to update Engram's value status in my draft guide as well, which is something I'll have to do a better job of next year when making player updates. Engram suffered both the major injury of a broken shoulder bone, and also the crippling effect that Hasselbeck's injury had on the Seattle passing game. He had no value.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Overview: Curry simply didn't pan out thanks to the erratic Oakland passing game, the coaching change, and all sorts of other things.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Stallworth bombed yet again, this time in a different city.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Jackson actually did some good things when he got on the field, but thanks to the rapid development of Eddie Royal, and the solid presence of Stokley in the slot, he was rarely needed.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Hackett couldn't stay on the field, and never passed Muhammad as a starter. Bust.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Overview: Rice had trouble staying healthy, and then when he was on the field, Berrian and Shiancoe dominated the targets in the run-heavy Vikings offense.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Burleson actually looked pretty solid...in week 1 before tearing up his knee.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Monster bust. Everyone's favorite sleeper sucked a fat one.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish:56th
Recap: Like I said in the presason, there was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. This time, it was a lot more.
WR4 Summary:
Hits: Berrian, Williams, Engram, Hackett
Misses: Everyone else.
Mason and Berrian were the only good WRs here, but luckily since these were bench WRs, they were likely replaced by someone else shortly after the season started.
WR3 Value Analysis Recap
25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Galloway's age finally caught up to him last year, and he bombed.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 53rd
Recap: Chambers got off to a great start, but then an injury derailed his momentum and he either missed games or played hurt the majority of the season.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Recap: Matt Ryan turned in one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time, thanks in part to Michael Turner, and Roddy White was the big beneficiary of that. White was a WR1 all season long.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
2008 Finish: 11th
Recap: I recommended Jackson as a WR3, but erroneously preferred Chambers to him. Jackson stepped up and proved that he was the top dog in the Chargers offense, and with LT hurting all year, there were more receptions to go around.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 24th
Recap: Coles played through more injuries in 2008, and just as expected, he posted borderline WR2 numbers.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: Curtis' hernia surgery killed his season. I forgot to update his value in my draft guide, but I did post stating not to draft him anymore.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 30th
Recap: Cotchery was not worth reaching for. Favre's jeckyl/hyde passing game hurt Cotchery's consistency as his targets were all over the board on a weekly basis.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 43rd
Recap: Gonzalez simply did not get enough targets to put up WR3 numbers in 2008.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: We have learned that Reggie Brown is not a very good football player. End of story.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
Recap: Moss turned in a healthy season, missing only one game, but faded down the stretch as the Redskins offense went south. With Portis running the show in the first half, Moss was a stud WR1, but he faded badly in the 2nd half. Still, he provided a nice return on investment as a WR3.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Walker's knees just aren't allowing him to do much anymore, which is a shame. He busted again in 2008.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 49th
Recap: Crayton regressed in 2008, and was barely worth using in fantasy leagues.
WR3 Summary:
Hits: Galloway, White, Coles, Curtis, Gonzalez, Moss, Walker
Misses: Chambers, Jackson, Cotchery, Brown, Crayton
7/12, so a little better. I did recommend Jackson, although ultimately I still had him partially marked as over-valued.
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Galloway's age finally caught up to him last year, and he bombed.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 53rd
Recap: Chambers got off to a great start, but then an injury derailed his momentum and he either missed games or played hurt the majority of the season.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Recap: Matt Ryan turned in one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time, thanks in part to Michael Turner, and Roddy White was the big beneficiary of that. White was a WR1 all season long.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
2008 Finish: 11th
Recap: I recommended Jackson as a WR3, but erroneously preferred Chambers to him. Jackson stepped up and proved that he was the top dog in the Chargers offense, and with LT hurting all year, there were more receptions to go around.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 24th
Recap: Coles played through more injuries in 2008, and just as expected, he posted borderline WR2 numbers.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: Curtis' hernia surgery killed his season. I forgot to update his value in my draft guide, but I did post stating not to draft him anymore.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 30th
Recap: Cotchery was not worth reaching for. Favre's jeckyl/hyde passing game hurt Cotchery's consistency as his targets were all over the board on a weekly basis.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 43rd
Recap: Gonzalez simply did not get enough targets to put up WR3 numbers in 2008.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard
Recap: We have learned that Reggie Brown is not a very good football player. End of story.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
Recap: Moss turned in a healthy season, missing only one game, but faded down the stretch as the Redskins offense went south. With Portis running the show in the first half, Moss was a stud WR1, but he faded badly in the 2nd half. Still, he provided a nice return on investment as a WR3.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.
Recap: Walker's knees just aren't allowing him to do much anymore, which is a shame. He busted again in 2008.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 49th
Recap: Crayton regressed in 2008, and was barely worth using in fantasy leagues.
WR3 Summary:
Hits: Galloway, White, Coles, Curtis, Gonzalez, Moss, Walker
Misses: Chambers, Jackson, Cotchery, Brown, Crayton
7/12, so a little better. I did recommend Jackson, although ultimately I still had him partially marked as over-valued.
WR2 Value Analysis Recap
13) Plaxico Burress
ADP: 36.1 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 59th
Recap: Owners who drafted Burress really shot themselves in the foot. Or leg. Yeah, that was a bit too easy.
14) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 39.9 (4th round, 4th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 7th
Recap: I updated Fitzgerald, but forgot to update Boldin to undervalued. At any rate, Boldin exceeded expectations but being the #1 fantasy WR until his annual injury, and that included the 2 missed games in weeks 5 and 6 after becoming a human sandwich. Unfortunately a leg injury slowed his season down after week 12, and he missed weeks 16 and 17. At any rate, when on the field, Boldin was a WR1.
15) Greg Jennings
ADP: 41.7 (4th round, 6th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 4th
Recap: Uh yeah, huge miss here. I took the wrong side of the logic. In 2007, Jennings generated way too many TDs per catch, so it would stand to reason that either his TDs will crash, or his receptions will rise. The aging Driver passed the torch to Jennings as Rodgers big arm was a perfect fit for Jennings downfield ability. Jennings turned in a stud year.
16) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 71st
Overview: Hot freaking vomit. Possibly my two biggest misses back to back here. Calvin Johnson took over in Detroit while Roy sulked and sucked, and then he was traded to a team that had little interest in using him. Horrible bust.
17) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 50.5 (5th round round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 32nd
Recap: Another miss, although this one wasn't quite as bad as the last two. The PIT passing game was essentially non-existent in 2008, and Holmes suffered before a huge playoff run. Nice for him to do that after the fantasy season was over. Holmes was a WR3 and nothing more.
18) Hines Ward
ADP: 56.6 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 16th
Recap: While Holmes was inconsistently used, Ward maintained his steady pace, putting in another fine WR2 season. They swapped the numbers I expected each other to post.
19) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 57.2 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Recap: 12th
Overview: Marshall exploded out of the gates, and then settled into posting solid numbers all season long. He's here to stay as a WR1.
20) Marvin Harrison
ADP: 57.2 (5th round round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 42nd
Recap: Harrison's knees didn't give him an explosiveness, and they might have ended his career. Harrison was a bust.
21) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 57.3 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 3rd
Recap: Calvin was simply one of the best WRs in football last season, which was incredibly amazing given the crap QBs he had throwing him the ball. He's here to stay as a dominant WR force.
22) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 59.7 (5th round, 12th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 18th
Recap: Bowe gave you exactly what you expected from him, and he was a rock solid WR2 in 2008.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 26th
Overview: Evans was indeed undervalued for the first half of the season, but then things went terrible wrong in the 2nd half as the Bills offense slowly fell apart. He turned in a pretty solid season and gave you a nice return on investment, but he wasn't worth reaching for.
24) Donald Driver
ADP: 70.3 (6th round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 23rd
Recap: Driver actually turned out to be a solid investment in 2008, thanks to the excellent play of Aaron Rodgers.
WR2 Summary:
Hits: Burress, Boldin, Marshall, C. Johnson, Bowe
Misses: Too many.
5/12...awful. Needs improvement.
WR1 Value Analysis Recap
1) Randy Moss
ADP: 7.9 (1st round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 10th
Recap: Moss actually turned in a valiant effort in 2008. Owners undoubtedly panicked after Brady's injury in week 1, but once Cassel settled in, Moss turned back into the WR1 that he was expected to be. However, he certainly didn't turn in the season expected after being taken as the first WR off the board.
2) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 13.6 (2nd round, 1st pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 13th
Recap: Wayne just simply didn't live up to expectations in 2008. I checked his split stats, wondering if Manning's slow start hurt him, but he posted very similar numbers in both the 1st and 2nd half. His yards and TDs both dropped, and it's possible that teams overloaded on Wayne knowing that Harrison couldn't beat them anymore.
3)Terrell Owens
ADP: 14.2 (2nd round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 9th
Recap: Honestly, this was about worst case scenario. Romo got hurt, and outside of that month (120 yards and 1 TD combined over the 4 games), Owens was his usual beastly self. He was the WR1 you drafted him to be outside of that small stretch of games.
4) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 34th
Recap: The risk that didn't pay off. Anderson proved that 2007 was a fluke, and bombed horribly in 2008. Quinn didn't fair that much better. Of course, Edwards brought some of this on himself with a horrendous season filled with dropped passes as well. Simply put, he was a bust.
5) T.J. Houshmandzadeh
ADP: 22.7 (2nd round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 31st
Recap: Palmer got hurt, the Bengals offense tanked, and TJ simply couldn't do much with noodle-armed Fitzpatrick running the 5 yard pass show all year long. Bust.
6) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 22.9 (2nd round, 11th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
Recap: 1st
Recap: Warner made all the difference. Fitzgerald was simply the best WR in football last year, and provided good value to all who took him. Probably could have rated him as undervalued.
7) Andre Johnson
ADP: 23.9 (2nd round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 2nd
Recap: Johnson had a monster 2008 season indeed. No matter the QB, AJ went about his business, torturing defenses all season long. It took longer than expected, but AJ finally has the supporting offensive system to put his tremendous talent to full use.
8) Steve Smith
ADP: 24.8 (3rd round, 1st pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 5th
Recap: 2 game suspension? Pff, who cares. Smitty still tore up defenses all season long, finishing 5th among all WRs despite missing 2 full games.
9) Marques Colston
ADP: 27.1 (3rd round, 3rd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 36th
Recap: Farking injuries. Colston missed 6 games with a torn finger ligament suffered in week 1, but posted WR1 numbers when he played. Colston is turning into Boldin's little brother with regards to performing like a WR1 on the field, but also carrying a certainty of a few missed games during the season.
10) Chad Johnson
ADP: 29.1 (3rd round, 5th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 51st
Overview: CJ seemingly wasn't affected by his labrum injury, although it was hard to tell with the crap offense in Cincy during 2008. Bust.
11) Torry Holt
ADP: 33.4 (3rd round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 41st
Recap: Much like Housh/CJ in Cincy, STL's offense also fell apart, and Holt appeared completely disinterested in playing football. Bust.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 36.0 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 21st
Recap: Welker actually posted a fairly solid WR2 season by the numbers, but rarely scored with only 3 TDs, making him more of a rock solid WR3 during 2008. He certainly didn't live up to his draft spot.
WR1 Summary:
Hits: Moss, Edwards, Owens, Housh, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Smith, C. Johnson, Welker
Misses: Holt (?), Wayne, Colston
9/3 split, so pretty good. Wayne just didn't live up to expectations, while Colston suffered a 6 week injury which prevented him from reaching his expectations. I marked Holt as over-valued, but labeled him as a solid WR1/2, so I was kinda 50% there depending on what you took closer to heart.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
RB3 Value Analysis Recap
25) Thomas Jones
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 5th
Recap: Jones anchored the running game of a resurgent Jets team that almost made the playoffs. With Favre stabilizing the passing game, somewhat, Jones made a 14 TD improvement in 2008 as he miraculously returned to RB1 status.
26) LenDale White
ADP: 54.2 (5th round, 6th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 19th
Recap: This ranking is also very mis-leading. Now White scored in more games than he didn't, but with Chris Johnson amazingly dominating the touches in most games, White got very little action. He only had two games of 20+ carries. He actually wasn't a bad RB2, all things considered, which did provide good value here.
27) Rudi Johnson
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 73rd
Recap: Johnson was cut by the Bengals, played in some games with the Lions, and was mostly worthless.
28) Fred Taylor
ADP: 57.1 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 56th
Recap: Taylor was simply not the same player in 2008. Some of it had to do with the injuries that decimated the offensive line, but while Taylor ran with authority, he showed his age and only scored once. He wasn't a fantasy option at all this year.
29) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 61.8 (6th round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 24th
Recap: Stewart never captured the starting role like I thought he would thanks to the amazing season by DeAngelo Williams. Stewart did, however, show plenty of promise when given the carries. He was a RB2 in the right matchups during 2008.
30) Matt Forte
ADP: 64.1 (6th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 3rd
Recap: Forte was insanely consistent all season long thanks to a bunch of touches in both the running game and passing game. Chicago's commitment to the run benefited him all season long, and they were creative to get him involved in the passing game as well. Forte was certainly one of 2008's pleasant surprises.
31) Selvin Young
ADP: 66.7 (6th round, 7th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.
Recap: I'm an idiot. Young was never relied upon to do much, and even then, he still got hurt. This will probably be the last year you even think of him.
32) Kevin Smith
ADP: 75.2 (7th round, 3rd pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 18th
Recap: This ranking is a bit misleading as well. Smith didn't take the starting job until week 10, so he wasn't worth starting until then, but he was excellent down the stretch as a RB2 when you needed him most. He showed a lot of promise for the future on such a bad team.
33) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 80.4 (7th round, 8th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.
Recap: Mendenhall suffered a broken shoulder bone, which ended his season in week 4, a week after Parker went down. Much like McFadden...34) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 82.3 (7th round, 10th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 1st
Recap: I was dead on here. I said I didn't want him as a RB3, which was correct, as I wanted him as my RB1. Uh, yeah. Well, I did end up drafting him as a RB4 in one league, and I don't think I could have loved him any more. He honestly had an odd year. He showed promise in week 1, appeared close to losing his job after 3 straight weeks of mediocre play, exploded in week 5, turned in 2 more weeks of blah, and then absolutely exploded with 993 yards and 15 TDs in the last 8 games! That has to rank up there with among the most amazing 8 week performances in fantasy football history.
35) Deuce McAllister
ADP: 87.4 (8th round, 3rd pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.
Recap: McAllister did almost nothing in 2008 and lost his job to Pierre Thomas.
36) Chester Taylor
ADP: 87.7 (8th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 36th
Recap: I made a mistake with my value call here. I meant undervalued to Peterson owners, specifically, as obviously I wasn't going to suggest grabbing him as anything more than a RB3. Regardless, he had zero stand-alone value as Peterson never went down, and Taylor never got more than 11 carries in a game.
RB3 Summary:
Hits: Jones, White, Johnson, F. Taylor, Stewart, Forte, Smith, McAllister
Misses: Young, Mendenhall, Williams, C. Taylor
Another 8/4 split. Young and Williams were dreadful calls, which is really disappointing given Williams ended #1. Mendenhall was injured, and Chester Taylor should have been specified better per his situation.
RB2 Value Analysis Recap
13) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 20.8 (2nd round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.
Recap: Maroney was yet again a bust. Inconsistent play followed by another injury that eventually put him on IR. He was obviously a good player to avoid.
14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 22.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 12th
Recap: The Giants were again studly running the football in 2008, and Jacobs led the charge with another very solid season. He missed 2 more games, including week 15, but finished with a monster 3 TD performance in week 16. You pretty much got exactly what you expected when you drafted him.
15) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 24.9 (3rd round, 1st pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 25th
Recap: Lewis ran hard all year but missed a few games with injuries, and the offense around him collapsed. He did as much as he could, but he simply isn't a good RB anymore at this point in his career.
16) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 27.0 (3rd round, 3rd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 8th
Recap: MJD turned in a solid season and finished in the top 10, mostly thanks to a 12 TD performance, and the aid of 3 missed games by starter Fred Taylor. He was a bit inconsistent fantasy-wise thanks to the lack of touches, but caught plenty of passes and scored enough to mostly counter that problem.
17) Reggie Bush
ADP: 30.3 (3rd round, 6th pick)Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 28th
Recap: Bush was a RB1 for the first 6 weeks of the season, and then disaster struck and another knee injury ruined his season. He only played in 2 more games after week 7, moving from a bigtime 3rd round value to a useless fantasy commodity.
18) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 33.5 (3rd round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 16th
Recap: Brown's 2008 finish hid his actual value. He peaked in week 3 with a massive 4 TD explosion versus NE, and followed it up with a 125 yard, 1 TD performance the following week. Inexplicably, he received only one game of more than 16 carries the rest of the way as a relatively effective Ricky Williams split time almost evenly with Brown. He showed great explosion in his first year back from a torn ACL, but he just didn't get the touches down the stretch to be a difference maker.
19) Earnest Graham
ADP: 33.9 (3rd round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 45th
Recap: Graham wasn't very impressive in 2008. He was very good in 3 of the first 4 games, but split time on the field with Dunn, and his YPC crashed after week 5 before a torn knee ligament ended his season in week 11. He didn't come close to recapturing his 2007 magic.
20) Michael Turner
ADP: 36.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 2nd
Recap: Rookie QB? No contribution in the passing game? It simply doesn't matter when lead the league in carries and score 17 TDs. Turner showed early on that good defenses could hold him down, but then Matt Ryan proved wise beyond his years, Roddy White dominated the receiving attack, and Turner moved the chains over and over again. He certainly should have been ranked as under valued and taken a round earlier, but who knew?
21) Edgerrin James
ADP: 40.5 (4th round, 4th pick)Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 53rd
Recap: Edge proved to be the same player yet again, and found the bench after week 5 while failing to provide any sort of spark to the running game in the early going. He won't start again.
22) Willie Parker
ADP: 45.3 (4th round, 9th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 40th
Recap: Parker exploded out of the gates in the first 2 weeks before suffering a knee injury in week 3 that caused problems until returning in week 9, missing another game in week 10, having another big game in week 11, and then proving mostly worthless the rest of the season. It's entirely possibly that he's breaking down already as he was never built to be the battering ram the Steelers have used him as.
23) Julius Jones
ADP: 49.8 (5th round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 50th
Recap: If you followed my advice to draft him, and then followed my advice to sell high in my sell high column after week 4, you likely did very well for yourself. Jones exploded in weeks 2 and 3 with back-to-back 125+ yard games with a TD a piece, and then fell apart shortly after. He couldn't maintain his confidence level and is likely done as anything more than a backup RB in the NFL.
24) Darren McFadden
ADP: 51.6 (5th round, 3rd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 44th
Recap: It wasn't even fair for McFadden owners. Fargas was blocking his path, but after a groin injury in week 2, McFadden took the reins and exploded for 164 yard, 1 TD performance against KC. Unfortunately, that was essentially the end of McFadden as a turf toe injury ruined the rest of his season. Ugh.
RB2 Summary:
Hits: Maroney, Jacobs, Lewis, MJD, Turner, Graham, James, Jones (ONLY if you sold high)
Misses: Bush, Brown, Parker, McFadden - Mostly injuries here, although I should have known better with Bush and Parker. Brown performed better than expected, although faded down the stretch. McFadden suffered a freak injury.
Friday, February 6, 2009
RB1 Value Analysis Recap
1) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Recap: What an odd year for LT, and crazily enough, he was worth a top 2 pick. I was right that 2008 was the year he would start to fade, although it was mostly due to a toe injury. The rare times he felt 100%, he looked like the old LT, but it was far too infrequent. Still, he finished 6th, and of the other 1st rounders, only AP finished ahead of him.
ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 4th
Overview: AP looked like his usual dominant self for most of the season, playing in all 16 games and avoiding the injury bug. He led the league in rushing, and Frerotte's insertion into the lineup gave the Vikings some semblance of a passing attack for a while. He pretty much performed as expected.
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 4th
Overview: AP looked like his usual dominant self for most of the season, playing in all 16 games and avoiding the injury bug. He led the league in rushing, and Frerotte's insertion into the lineup gave the Vikings some semblance of a passing attack for a while. He pretty much performed as expected.
3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 10th
Overview: In an odd way, Westbrook actually did live up to his draft position. Despite finishing 10th, only 3 other first rounders finished ahead of him, and if you handcuffed Buckhalter to him, you got some pretty good production in the games that Westbrook missed. Westbrook's injuries were certainly a problem as they hindered his production in a few games, and that certainly isn't going away.
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 10th
Overview: In an odd way, Westbrook actually did live up to his draft position. Despite finishing 10th, only 3 other first rounders finished ahead of him, and if you handcuffed Buckhalter to him, you got some pretty good production in the games that Westbrook missed. Westbrook's injuries were certainly a problem as they hindered his production in a few games, and that certainly isn't going away.
4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 15th
Recap: Jackson actually produced pretty well, especially down the stretch, when he wasn't hurt. However, during the 4th quarter of his monster effort against Dallas, Jackson injured another leg muscle that cost him several games. He honestly shouldn't have been out there in a game that was over, but given the ineptitude of the STL coaching staff, you probably weren't surprised. However, those injuries, as I warned you about, didn't allow Jackson to be worth the high pick.
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 15th
Recap: Jackson actually produced pretty well, especially down the stretch, when he wasn't hurt. However, during the 4th quarter of his monster effort against Dallas, Jackson injured another leg muscle that cost him several games. He honestly shouldn't have been out there in a game that was over, but given the ineptitude of the STL coaching staff, you probably weren't surprised. However, those injuries, as I warned you about, didn't allow Jackson to be worth the high pick.
5) Joseph Addai
ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 38th
Overview: Bust. Addai played like crap, battled numerous nagging injuries again, and only post a couple serviceable games. Addai simply isn't a feature back, and I don't expect the Colts to fully trust him outside of a committee again.
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 38th
Overview: Bust. Addai played like crap, battled numerous nagging injuries again, and only post a couple serviceable games. Addai simply isn't a feature back, and I don't expect the Colts to fully trust him outside of a committee again.
6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 17th
Overview: Barber was a top RB until the Dallas team collapsed. Romo's injury allowed defenses to stack the box, and then after he returned, Barber suffered a toe injury that ruined the last 5 weeks of his season. Those who thought Barber would wear down could claim I told you so from the numbers and injury, but it was a freak injury and he was as strong as ever prior to the injury.
7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 14th
Recap: Gore was tearing it up until an ankle injury slowed him down considerably the last 5 weeks, including 2 missed games. He was a perfect all-around fit in Martz's offense and put up the numbers of an RB1 when he played. The injury derailed his season, but he certainly looked like a stud for most of the season.
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 14th
Recap: Gore was tearing it up until an ankle injury slowed him down considerably the last 5 weeks, including 2 missed games. He was a perfect all-around fit in Martz's offense and put up the numbers of an RB1 when he played. The injury derailed his season, but he certainly looked like a stud for most of the season.
8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 30th
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 30th
Recap: Bust. LJ actually got off to a promising start against some weak defenses, but between the various off-the-field altercations, the suspension, and the poor performance, LJ simply never returned to form.
9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 9th
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 9th
Overview: Portis was dominating the first half of the season, but the large workload it took him to get there caught up with him, and he faded badly down the stretch. Campbell's continued inconsistent play also hurt as teams loaded up against the run. Portis actually lived up to his draft status, especially if you replaced him down the stretch when he faded, but he wasn't undervalued given the slow finish.
10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 13th
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 13th
Overview: Lynch put up a solid season, but the Bills fascination with Fred Jackson killed Lynch's upside. Jackson is clearly the favored 3rd down back, and he comes in far too often as a replacement for Lynch. There's no question that Jackson is talented, but Lynch is a better 1st/2nd down RB that should have received more carries. Lynch was a solid value pick, but not a difference maker that I thought he'd be.
11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
Overview: Grant started off very slow, but picked things up in the 2nd half of the season and finished relatively strong. TDs were a problem as he only scored 5 all season despite Green Bay having a powerful offense, and he was inconsistent as he offered nothing in the passing game until the final 3 games. He certainly wasn't RB1 material.ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 22nd
12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 35th
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 35th
Overview: McGahee's season was a mess. His knee surgery cost him week 1, and then he was in and out of the lineup between various injuries and game planning decisions. He wasn't even an RB2 this year despite being drafted as an RB1.
RB1 Summary: I was pretty on par with most of my value analysis for the RB1s. I had a couple minor misses as my RB1 favorites Barber, Portis, and Gore hurt their "under valued" ratings with late season fades, and Westbrook was actually a solid pick. I definitely hit the busts of the group in Addai, LJ, Grant, and McGahee. Only 4 of the top 12 RBs finished in the top 12, which is pretty high turnover!
Thursday, February 5, 2009
QB Value Analysis Recap
1) Tom Brady
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in week 1, ending his season immediately. If you avoided him, like I suggested, you avoided a disaster.
2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Recap: Manning started off slowly, as expected, coming off of knee surgery. However, if you were patient with him, he turned in a 2nd half like you expected. You pretty much got what you drafted here: a slow start and a consistently good-great QB1 afterwards.
3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 10th.
Recap: Romo started off on fire, but then disaster struck with a pinkie injury, and TO started to take over the team with his bad attitude. Another good avoid call here.
4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 1st
Recap: Brees was a monster in 2008, and you could have techincally called him over-valued, as taking him in the 2nd round would have turned out OK, but he was perfect in the 3rd after nailing down 2 other top players.
5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Oops. Palmer looked out of synch early on, with CJ pretty much MIA, and then suffered a serious elbow injury that ended his season in week 4. This was a horrible call.
6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 19th
Recap: Big Ben's TD passes certainly dropped alright, to about half of his 2007 total. The Steelers' offense balanced out his somewhat flukish 2007 season as they had more success running the ball in the red zone, and Big Ben's pass attempts stayed very low. His offense line gave him poor protection as well.
7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Recap: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Anderson sucked and then lost his job. He simply doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL starter.
8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: As expected, Hasselbeck suffered without many playmakers around him, and then he suffered a back injury to boot which caused him to miss numerous games. Another good avoid call.
9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 7th.
Recap: McNabb was more appropriately valued than under valued, as things ended, but that was mostly due to a horrible stretch that resulted in his benching against Baltimore. It was the kick in the ass he needed as he closed very strong and tacked on an excellent playoff run. There's just no way I see him leaving Philly this offseason.
10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 13th.
Recap: The Giants were powered by their running game and defense all season, and Plaxico's rollercoaster ride combined with his shooting injury left Manning with very little receiving talent to work with. He was a solid backup and nothing more.
11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 4th.
Recap: Awesome. Cutler slung it all season long and racked up huge fantasy numbers. Despite some poor decision making and all the pressure that resided on his shoulders, he came through far more often than not for his fantasy owners and was an outstanding value.
12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Hot freakin vomit. The Rams just flat-out sucked and sunk every single player not named Steven Jackson. Bulger was in and out of the lineup and never had any rhythm. I should have taken the horrible talent behind Torry Holt into account here.
With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:
15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 3rd
Recap: Brett who? Rodgers was a legit stud QB from week 1, using the great receiving talent around him and a pass-happy offense to rack up great fantasy numbers. He even made Packers fans forget about Favre's toughness by playing through a separated throwing shoulder and not missing a beat. His future is very bright.
16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 20th
Recap: Matt Schaub had a rough start, then performed quite well when in the lineup, but missed some time due to various injuries. His durability continues to be a question mark, but there's no question the kid can play. He could be under valued again next year.
17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 21st.
Recap: Miss. Who needs to throw when your 2 RBs score all the time? He made great use of Steve Smith, but wasn't called on to do much passing with the running game working so well.
18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: While I still believe in Young's talent, his head is a freakin' mess. I don't think I need to recap what little of a season that he had, so suffice it to say that I wasn't on the mark at all here.
24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Jackson lost the job with poor play to Gus Frerotte, but actually was a huge help to owners who dared use him down the stretch in 2008, especially during week 16. He again looked horrible against Philly in the playoffs, and barring some unforseen offseason events, he shouldn't be a starter again in the NFL. The physical skills are undoubtedly there, but his head and accuracy are major problems. He doesn't know how to handle blitzes.
25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Smith never overcame the shoulder injuries that have derailed his career and missed the entire season.
QB Analysis Overall: Carson Palmer was a disaster, and a couple of my sleepers missed the mark by quite a bit, but overall I did quite well profiling the QBs. I forgot to make a late addition to this article for Kurt Warner, but I advised all to draft him as a risky QB1. That risk paid off, and then some. One huge omission was Phillip Rivers, whom I liked, but didn't dream he'd be the #2 QB. Next year I plan to do the top 24 QBs being drafted instead of just the starters.
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in week 1, ending his season immediately. If you avoided him, like I suggested, you avoided a disaster.
2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
2008 Finish: 6th
Recap: Manning started off slowly, as expected, coming off of knee surgery. However, if you were patient with him, he turned in a 2nd half like you expected. You pretty much got what you drafted here: a slow start and a consistently good-great QB1 afterwards.
3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 10th.
Recap: Romo started off on fire, but then disaster struck with a pinkie injury, and TO started to take over the team with his bad attitude. Another good avoid call here.
4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: 1st
Recap: Brees was a monster in 2008, and you could have techincally called him over-valued, as taking him in the 2nd round would have turned out OK, but he was perfect in the 3rd after nailing down 2 other top players.
5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Oops. Palmer looked out of synch early on, with CJ pretty much MIA, and then suffered a serious elbow injury that ended his season in week 4. This was a horrible call.
6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 19th
Recap: Big Ben's TD passes certainly dropped alright, to about half of his 2007 total. The Steelers' offense balanced out his somewhat flukish 2007 season as they had more success running the ball in the red zone, and Big Ben's pass attempts stayed very low. His offense line gave him poor protection as well.
7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Recap: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Anderson sucked and then lost his job. He simply doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL starter.
8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: As expected, Hasselbeck suffered without many playmakers around him, and then he suffered a back injury to boot which caused him to miss numerous games. Another good avoid call.
9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 7th.
Recap: McNabb was more appropriately valued than under valued, as things ended, but that was mostly due to a horrible stretch that resulted in his benching against Baltimore. It was the kick in the ass he needed as he closed very strong and tacked on an excellent playoff run. There's just no way I see him leaving Philly this offseason.
10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued
2008 Finish: 13th.
Recap: The Giants were powered by their running game and defense all season, and Plaxico's rollercoaster ride combined with his shooting injury left Manning with very little receiving talent to work with. He was a solid backup and nothing more.
11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 4th.
Recap: Awesome. Cutler slung it all season long and racked up huge fantasy numbers. Despite some poor decision making and all the pressure that resided on his shoulders, he came through far more often than not for his fantasy owners and was an outstanding value.
12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Hot freakin vomit. The Rams just flat-out sucked and sunk every single player not named Steven Jackson. Bulger was in and out of the lineup and never had any rhythm. I should have taken the horrible talent behind Torry Holt into account here.
With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:
15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 3rd
Recap: Brett who? Rodgers was a legit stud QB from week 1, using the great receiving talent around him and a pass-happy offense to rack up great fantasy numbers. He even made Packers fans forget about Favre's toughness by playing through a separated throwing shoulder and not missing a beat. His future is very bright.
16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 20th
Recap: Matt Schaub had a rough start, then performed quite well when in the lineup, but missed some time due to various injuries. His durability continues to be a question mark, but there's no question the kid can play. He could be under valued again next year.
17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: 21st.
Recap: Miss. Who needs to throw when your 2 RBs score all the time? He made great use of Steve Smith, but wasn't called on to do much passing with the running game working so well.
18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: While I still believe in Young's talent, his head is a freakin' mess. I don't think I need to recap what little of a season that he had, so suffice it to say that I wasn't on the mark at all here.
24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Overview: Jackson lost the job with poor play to Gus Frerotte, but actually was a huge help to owners who dared use him down the stretch in 2008, especially during week 16. He again looked horrible against Philly in the playoffs, and barring some unforseen offseason events, he shouldn't be a starter again in the NFL. The physical skills are undoubtedly there, but his head and accuracy are major problems. He doesn't know how to handle blitzes.
25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.
Recap: Smith never overcame the shoulder injuries that have derailed his career and missed the entire season.
QB Analysis Overall: Carson Palmer was a disaster, and a couple of my sleepers missed the mark by quite a bit, but overall I did quite well profiling the QBs. I forgot to make a late addition to this article for Kurt Warner, but I advised all to draft him as a risky QB1. That risk paid off, and then some. One huge omission was Phillip Rivers, whom I liked, but didn't dream he'd be the #2 QB. Next year I plan to do the top 24 QBs being drafted instead of just the starters.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)