Jonathan Stewart continues to miss time, and John Fox stated today that it doesn't appear that he's close to making it back onto the field with whatever Achillies problem he's dealing with. That being said, I think DeAngelo Williams is worth taking in the same middle 1st round neighborhood along with Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. He's going to get a good amount of carries in a run-first offense, and he has a beastly line in front of him, although they aren't very deep and cannot afford injuries.
James Davis continues to make noise in Cleveland's camp, and he's someone to take seriously. He's been touted at the most impressive rookie runner this preseason. Jamal Lewis is on his last legs, and at this rate, I expect Davis to overtake Lewis at some point this season. He could be this year's Steve Slaton, and he has emerged as a great RB5 pick to shoot for late in drafts.
I am going through my draft guide and making full updates based on the preseason and recent signings.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Seahawks Sign RB Edgerrin James
The Seattle Seahawks have signed former Colts/Cardinals RB Edgerrin James, in a move sure to shake up the fantasy football world.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
My First Draft
I just completed my first draft, picking from the 6th spot, in a 12 team league. Here are the results:
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
My 1st Round Conundrum
So I drew the #6 pick in my local fantasy football league, and much like last year at the #3 spot, I'm sifting through a bunch of players. Here are the guys that I've thought through:
LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.
Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?
Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.
DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.
Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.
Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.
Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.
Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore
LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.
Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?
Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.
DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.
Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.
Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.
Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.
Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore
Vikings Sign QB Brett Favre
Here we go again. Brett Favre has successfully avoided most of training camp and will join the Vikings immediately. Given he knows Childress' playbook as well as anyone in the league, it's not a concern for him knowledge-wise, but he's going to need to use all of this time to build a chemistry with Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and the other receivers as he's obviously never thrown to them before.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
More Preseason Player Updates
I wanted to do another list of player updates, but this time I'm going to sort by position.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Panthers WR Steve Smith Injures Shoulder
Panthers WR Steve Smith injured his shoulder earlier this week, but unfortunately the Panthers are playing coy about the severity of it. He's their only proven weapon in the passing game as it stands right now, so his health is a must if the Panthers are going to reach the playoffs again this season.
Fantasy Impact: Smith was already not high on my list of WR1s as I feel he'll regress a bit this season, and this injury doesn't help. There's nothing to indicate this is a serious injury at this point, but little is known and only speculation has been tossed around at this point. Keep an eye on this, but if you really like Smith, I wouldn't let this deter you.
Fantasy Impact: Smith was already not high on my list of WR1s as I feel he'll regress a bit this season, and this injury doesn't help. There's nothing to indicate this is a serious injury at this point, but little is known and only speculation has been tossed around at this point. Keep an eye on this, but if you really like Smith, I wouldn't let this deter you.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Training Camp Heroes And Zeroes
We finally have our first preseason game under our belt with Tennessee topping Buffalo in the first game of the season. Nothing stood out from that particular game other than how far Vince Young has fallen. However, there have been a couple players making noise in training camp thus far, and I'd like to make mention of them here. Now there's going to be a ton of "he looks quicker, faster, and stronger!" reports coming out of camps, but there are certain players that make enough noise to actually start believing the reports.
ROOKIES
Percy Harvin - I was originally skeptical about what type of role that Harvin will have, but he has reportedly been outstanding so far in training camp. He has the eye of the coaching staff, and he's a true playmaker...someone they really needed to keep attention off of Adrian Peterson. With the aggressive Sage Rosenfels likely the week 1 starter, Harvin could very well overtake both Berrian and Sydney Rice to be the top pass catcher on this team. Minnesota will constantly move him around and attempt to get him the ball both in space and down the field. I think he has emerged as a very good WR4 candidate to target, but he's a risky WR3 for those who start 3 WRs. I'd rather have him proven his role the first couple weeks, and then move him into my starting lineup.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno missed a bit of time getting his contract hammered out, but Denver is already throwing him in with the first string offense. He hasn't won the starting job yet, but that's more of a "when" than an "if". He's an ideal RB3 candidate who has a very good chance to post RB2 numbers for most of the season. If you're risky and into taking QB and WRs high, you can target him as your RB2.
Chris Wells / Tim Hightower - Wells signed quickly, but then injured his ankle in his first post-contract practice, and in his absence, Hightower is showing improvement over his problems last season with indecisive running and poor pad level. He certainly has the talent to make some noise, and supposedly he is distancing himself from Wells at the current time. Hightower has a chance to start in week 1, which would crush Wells' value and upside. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I certainly wouldn't go making Wells my RB2 in any draft.
Michael Crabtree - I already had him rated as overrated, but his holdout is crushing his fantasy value. He's threatening to sit out the 2009 season, but we've already seen what damage that can do when Mike Williams did it (for a different reason), and I don't think he's stupid enough to actually go through with it. He's fighting an uphill climb to be paid more than his draft slot is worth, and SF is intelligently not budging. He's not going to start in week 1, and it may take an injury ahead of him for him to even matter in fantasy leagues this year. Avoid him in redraft leagues.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to win over the new Detroit coaching staff with his intelligence, and we all know he has a cannon for an arm. He's going to be inconsistent like most rookie QBs, but if he ends up winning the starting job, which I think he will at this point, he'll be a guy to keep a close eye on for possible QB2 value. He has a chance to be more like Matt Ryan than Joe Flacco as he'll be playing on a slightly more aggressive passing offense without a dominant defense supporting him. This would be good news for Calvin Johnson as his big arm will fit Johnson's dominant ability to get downfield, and it would allow the chemistry to grow immediately from week 1.
VETERANS
Chris Johnson / LenDale White - As evidenced last night, White is still the go-to guy for the goal line work. He entered the game as soon as the Titans got inside the Bills 10 yard line, and he scored on his 2nd carry. This should put to rest any thoughts that CJ will snipe goal line carries from White this season, and further enforces that the Titans will employ the same running game strategy as last season, with CJ probably getting a few more touches. CJ remains a solid 1st round pick, but his TD totals will suffer a bit compared to the other RBs drafted around him, except for Slaton who looks to be in a very similar situation.
DeSean Jackson - Jackson is looking like the best player at Eagles camp. He suffered a hyperextneded knee over the weekend, but it appears to be a minor injury and nothing something that will cost him much time. Jackson is likely to lead the Eagles is receiving, and while his upside is limited by the spread-the-wealth nature of the Eagles offense, he's emerging as a very interesting WR2 that can be had once the bigger names are off the board.
Donnie Avery - Avery suffered a stress fracture in his foot that will reportedly keep him out 4-6 weeks. He was an intrguing WR3 before this news, but his status for week 1 is in doubt, and the lost time in a new offense is going to hurt once he gets back out on the field. I wouldn't be taking him as anything more than a WR4 right now.
Roddy White - Just a quick note here that his small holdout resulted in a nice payday, and that he's practicing again. I hadn't mentioned it as I didn't see it as a problem, and luckily it turned out that way. Don't change your thoughts on him because of a missed week or so...he's a WR1 who could possibly make the jump to elite this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall suffered some sort of injury in practice last week, and rumor has been that it's a setback with his surgically repaired hip. With new coach McDaniels coming from the Belichick coaching tree, don't expect to hear much of anything about what's actually wrong. This is a big concern as he's expected to miss practice this week. Keep a close eye on him.
Kevin Jones - There have been glowing reports of Jones all offseason, and this jives with the fact that Jones is still a very talented RB who's now over a year removed from a torn ACL. He should be back to 100%, and he's an important piece of the Bears offense to help keep Forte fresh this season. He's an excellent Forte handcuff.
Vernon Davis - He's already gotten into one training camp fight, and there's a rumor that he started a 2nd one. For a player who's maturity is holding him back, this is a serious concern. I still think he's worth a stab as a TE2, but those waiting on TEs this year should probably avoid relying on him as a starter. He certainly has the talent and the offensive system to be a TE1 this year, but it appears he's yet to grow up.
Greg Olsen - He continues to receive positive reviews and will be a focal point of the Bears passing attack this season. He's almost certain to take the next step, and he could even flirt with elite TE1 value this season.
Dallas Clark - Colts writers are raving about the chemistry Manning is showing with Clark, and I'm inclined to think that Clark is destined to hang with the great fantasy TEs despite his injury risk. Gonzalez will battle for more targets than the declining Harrison did last season, but Clark is arguably the 2nd option behind Wayne.
ROOKIES
Percy Harvin - I was originally skeptical about what type of role that Harvin will have, but he has reportedly been outstanding so far in training camp. He has the eye of the coaching staff, and he's a true playmaker...someone they really needed to keep attention off of Adrian Peterson. With the aggressive Sage Rosenfels likely the week 1 starter, Harvin could very well overtake both Berrian and Sydney Rice to be the top pass catcher on this team. Minnesota will constantly move him around and attempt to get him the ball both in space and down the field. I think he has emerged as a very good WR4 candidate to target, but he's a risky WR3 for those who start 3 WRs. I'd rather have him proven his role the first couple weeks, and then move him into my starting lineup.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno missed a bit of time getting his contract hammered out, but Denver is already throwing him in with the first string offense. He hasn't won the starting job yet, but that's more of a "when" than an "if". He's an ideal RB3 candidate who has a very good chance to post RB2 numbers for most of the season. If you're risky and into taking QB and WRs high, you can target him as your RB2.
Chris Wells / Tim Hightower - Wells signed quickly, but then injured his ankle in his first post-contract practice, and in his absence, Hightower is showing improvement over his problems last season with indecisive running and poor pad level. He certainly has the talent to make some noise, and supposedly he is distancing himself from Wells at the current time. Hightower has a chance to start in week 1, which would crush Wells' value and upside. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I certainly wouldn't go making Wells my RB2 in any draft.
Michael Crabtree - I already had him rated as overrated, but his holdout is crushing his fantasy value. He's threatening to sit out the 2009 season, but we've already seen what damage that can do when Mike Williams did it (for a different reason), and I don't think he's stupid enough to actually go through with it. He's fighting an uphill climb to be paid more than his draft slot is worth, and SF is intelligently not budging. He's not going to start in week 1, and it may take an injury ahead of him for him to even matter in fantasy leagues this year. Avoid him in redraft leagues.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to win over the new Detroit coaching staff with his intelligence, and we all know he has a cannon for an arm. He's going to be inconsistent like most rookie QBs, but if he ends up winning the starting job, which I think he will at this point, he'll be a guy to keep a close eye on for possible QB2 value. He has a chance to be more like Matt Ryan than Joe Flacco as he'll be playing on a slightly more aggressive passing offense without a dominant defense supporting him. This would be good news for Calvin Johnson as his big arm will fit Johnson's dominant ability to get downfield, and it would allow the chemistry to grow immediately from week 1.
VETERANS
Chris Johnson / LenDale White - As evidenced last night, White is still the go-to guy for the goal line work. He entered the game as soon as the Titans got inside the Bills 10 yard line, and he scored on his 2nd carry. This should put to rest any thoughts that CJ will snipe goal line carries from White this season, and further enforces that the Titans will employ the same running game strategy as last season, with CJ probably getting a few more touches. CJ remains a solid 1st round pick, but his TD totals will suffer a bit compared to the other RBs drafted around him, except for Slaton who looks to be in a very similar situation.
DeSean Jackson - Jackson is looking like the best player at Eagles camp. He suffered a hyperextneded knee over the weekend, but it appears to be a minor injury and nothing something that will cost him much time. Jackson is likely to lead the Eagles is receiving, and while his upside is limited by the spread-the-wealth nature of the Eagles offense, he's emerging as a very interesting WR2 that can be had once the bigger names are off the board.
Donnie Avery - Avery suffered a stress fracture in his foot that will reportedly keep him out 4-6 weeks. He was an intrguing WR3 before this news, but his status for week 1 is in doubt, and the lost time in a new offense is going to hurt once he gets back out on the field. I wouldn't be taking him as anything more than a WR4 right now.
Roddy White - Just a quick note here that his small holdout resulted in a nice payday, and that he's practicing again. I hadn't mentioned it as I didn't see it as a problem, and luckily it turned out that way. Don't change your thoughts on him because of a missed week or so...he's a WR1 who could possibly make the jump to elite this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall suffered some sort of injury in practice last week, and rumor has been that it's a setback with his surgically repaired hip. With new coach McDaniels coming from the Belichick coaching tree, don't expect to hear much of anything about what's actually wrong. This is a big concern as he's expected to miss practice this week. Keep a close eye on him.
Kevin Jones - There have been glowing reports of Jones all offseason, and this jives with the fact that Jones is still a very talented RB who's now over a year removed from a torn ACL. He should be back to 100%, and he's an important piece of the Bears offense to help keep Forte fresh this season. He's an excellent Forte handcuff.
Vernon Davis - He's already gotten into one training camp fight, and there's a rumor that he started a 2nd one. For a player who's maturity is holding him back, this is a serious concern. I still think he's worth a stab as a TE2, but those waiting on TEs this year should probably avoid relying on him as a starter. He certainly has the talent and the offensive system to be a TE1 this year, but it appears he's yet to grow up.
Greg Olsen - He continues to receive positive reviews and will be a focal point of the Bears passing attack this season. He's almost certain to take the next step, and he could even flirt with elite TE1 value this season.
Dallas Clark - Colts writers are raving about the chemistry Manning is showing with Clark, and I'm inclined to think that Clark is destined to hang with the great fantasy TEs despite his injury risk. Gonzalez will battle for more targets than the declining Harrison did last season, but Clark is arguably the 2nd option behind Wayne.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Ravens WR Derrick Mason Unretires
Ravens WR Derrick Mason announced his unretirement on Saturday, about 2 weeks after stating he'd retire. There's a whole host of rumors going around as to why he retired in the first place, starting with the emotional aftermath of Steve McNair's death to wanting a raise. It's hard to know exactly what his reasoning is, but the Ravens will stop flirting with free agent WRs now.
Fantasy Impact: I left Mason off of my draft guide as he was retired at the time I wrote it. He'll probably be overdrafted as a WR3/4 this season after his excellent 2008 campaign. As I've written before, I'd much rather jump off a player's bandwagon a year too early than a year too late, and Mason certainly falls into that category. There are younger, more exciting WRs to take around his ADP, which is currently 199.7, or mostly undrafted. I expect that to work itself back into the WR4 range, and there are probably people that will take him as a WR3. Don't be that guy.
I have also updated Mark Clayton as well as he is no longer draftable.
Fantasy Impact: I left Mason off of my draft guide as he was retired at the time I wrote it. He'll probably be overdrafted as a WR3/4 this season after his excellent 2008 campaign. As I've written before, I'd much rather jump off a player's bandwagon a year too early than a year too late, and Mason certainly falls into that category. There are younger, more exciting WRs to take around his ADP, which is currently 199.7, or mostly undrafted. I expect that to work itself back into the WR4 range, and there are probably people that will take him as a WR3. Don't be that guy.
I have also updated Mark Clayton as well as he is no longer draftable.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
QB Brett Favre Stays Retired
Free agent QB Brett Favre has decided to stay retired.
It was safe to assume that he was going to come back after undergoing biceps surgery and all the talks he's had with the Vikings coaching staff, but ultimately the daily grind will keep Favre retired. I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that we don't have to hear about this crap anymore. Good riddance to all this stupid drama!
Fantasy Impact: I will update all Vikings in my draft guide as I wrote it under the assumption that Favre would return and start for them. Favre can obviously be dropped immediately for those who took a chance on him in the draft, and it lessens the upside of what might have been a very dangerous offense.
Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson will battle to be the starting QB as the dust settles from the Favre situation. For current and prospective owners of Vikings players, everyone should be rooting for Sage Rosenfels. Tavaris Jackson has proven to be a mediocre QB who cannot handle pressure, and Rosenfels handled the Houston offense fairly well the past two seasons during Matt Schaub's injuries. He's a much better fantasy QB than a real QB as he makes horrible, bone-headed decisions a couple times a game. He has a good arm and will make the offense move better than Jackson, though.
It was safe to assume that he was going to come back after undergoing biceps surgery and all the talks he's had with the Vikings coaching staff, but ultimately the daily grind will keep Favre retired. I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that we don't have to hear about this crap anymore. Good riddance to all this stupid drama!
Fantasy Impact: I will update all Vikings in my draft guide as I wrote it under the assumption that Favre would return and start for them. Favre can obviously be dropped immediately for those who took a chance on him in the draft, and it lessens the upside of what might have been a very dangerous offense.
Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson will battle to be the starting QB as the dust settles from the Favre situation. For current and prospective owners of Vikings players, everyone should be rooting for Sage Rosenfels. Tavaris Jackson has proven to be a mediocre QB who cannot handle pressure, and Rosenfels handled the Houston offense fairly well the past two seasons during Matt Schaub's injuries. He's a much better fantasy QB than a real QB as he makes horrible, bone-headed decisions a couple times a game. He has a good arm and will make the offense move better than Jackson, though.
Friday, July 24, 2009
2009 ADP Value Analysis Complete
Hey All
I have completed my ADP value analysis for the 2009 season. Like I mentioned last year, I don't do kickers and defenses. So many valuable options emerge early on, and a number of the big named defenses that were drafted in the middle rounds either get dropped or severely underperform. I generally never take a defense before the second to last round unless there's nobody that stands out a round or two before that, and I really like a particular unit. I never take a kicker before the last round, and when I do, I opt for a kicker on a good offense that plays in favorable conditions.
I will make updates to these as more information is known, and as preseason games play out. I will make sure to put down an individual post for each update as I've written down a lot of information and it'll be impossible to weed through the updates without a heads up. Most of the ADP information will stay right about in line with where they're at now, although I did note a couple likely movers (Brett Favre, Ray Rice) that will probably see a spike as more concrete information is known about their roles. Preseason injuries can always play a role as well.
ADP is certainly not the end-all be-all of drafting, but it provides a very valuable guideline on what fantasy nation thinks of each player. For example, I draft in a league full of Bears fans, so odds are guys like Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, and perhaps even Devin Hester will go a round or two above their ADP. If you've played in the same league for several years, you probably know the drafting tendencies of some or most of the owners, and you can take that into consideration when figuring if someone will go too early or not.
If you really like a player, and you feel he is undervalued, plan accordingly and draft him early enough to make sure you get him, but also understand where that line is of taking him too early. Drafting someone too early can turn him from a value pick into a "must perform at the level I expect", which adds to the downside potential of the selection.
Last year, I liked the 4th/5th round RBs a lot, so I decided to take my stud RB 1st, 2 stud WRs in the 2nd/3rd, and then come back with my 2nd RB and 3rd WR in the next two rounds. I haven't looked close enough at everything yet to form a general strategy for this season, but this is another important aspect of preparing for your draft. You never, ever want to stick to a rigid strategy, though. If you do that, you can miss out on a player that has fallen too far at a position you weren't targeting.
So, as always, there's a lot to take into consideration, and hopefully my ADP guide will help you prepare for your draft. Have fun with it, fantasy football draft day is one of the best days of the year!
I have completed my ADP value analysis for the 2009 season. Like I mentioned last year, I don't do kickers and defenses. So many valuable options emerge early on, and a number of the big named defenses that were drafted in the middle rounds either get dropped or severely underperform. I generally never take a defense before the second to last round unless there's nobody that stands out a round or two before that, and I really like a particular unit. I never take a kicker before the last round, and when I do, I opt for a kicker on a good offense that plays in favorable conditions.
I will make updates to these as more information is known, and as preseason games play out. I will make sure to put down an individual post for each update as I've written down a lot of information and it'll be impossible to weed through the updates without a heads up. Most of the ADP information will stay right about in line with where they're at now, although I did note a couple likely movers (Brett Favre, Ray Rice) that will probably see a spike as more concrete information is known about their roles. Preseason injuries can always play a role as well.
ADP is certainly not the end-all be-all of drafting, but it provides a very valuable guideline on what fantasy nation thinks of each player. For example, I draft in a league full of Bears fans, so odds are guys like Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, and perhaps even Devin Hester will go a round or two above their ADP. If you've played in the same league for several years, you probably know the drafting tendencies of some or most of the owners, and you can take that into consideration when figuring if someone will go too early or not.
If you really like a player, and you feel he is undervalued, plan accordingly and draft him early enough to make sure you get him, but also understand where that line is of taking him too early. Drafting someone too early can turn him from a value pick into a "must perform at the level I expect", which adds to the downside potential of the selection.
Last year, I liked the 4th/5th round RBs a lot, so I decided to take my stud RB 1st, 2 stud WRs in the 2nd/3rd, and then come back with my 2nd RB and 3rd WR in the next two rounds. I haven't looked close enough at everything yet to form a general strategy for this season, but this is another important aspect of preparing for your draft. You never, ever want to stick to a rigid strategy, though. If you do that, you can miss out on a player that has fallen too far at a position you weren't targeting.
So, as always, there's a lot to take into consideration, and hopefully my ADP guide will help you prepare for your draft. Have fun with it, fantasy football draft day is one of the best days of the year!
2009 TE1 Value Analysis
I have never been big on drafting TEs early on. Last year I did perfectly fine waiting and grabbing either Tony Scheffler or Owen Daniels in the 10th or 11th rounds and getting TE1 value from them. I understand the fascination with taking a Jason Witten/Antonio Gates type early in the draft for security measures, but at a 4th/5th round price, I think you're wasting a pick when you can be selecting a more valuable RB/WR instead. Occasionally there's a mid-round guy that I like, and there is one this year, but generally I like waiting til the 10th round or later and snagging two sleepers instead. That being said, let's get on with it...
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 42.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, Witten managed to still post a solid TE1 season. His TD total dropped, but part of that can be blamed on Tony Romo's injury as well as the injuries. With Owens now gone, Witten will definitely be Romo's go-to guy, and he should post another very good season.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Gates, much like Witten, also dealt with a number of injuries, but he also battled through it and posted a solid TE1 season as well. The emergence of Vincent Jackson has meant that Gates has a 1B option to share the ball with, but Rivers will still look to Gates on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Gates will likely lead the Chargers in receptions again, and he makes for a great TE1 option at a slight discount from previous seasons.
3) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 56.9 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is now the starting TE for the Falcons.
Overview: Expectations are probably sky-high for Gonzalez this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if people started taking him as the first TE off the board. Thanks to the Chiefs transitioning to a spread offense mid-season last year, Gonzalez finished as the #1 TE with a huge 2nd half. Gonzo moves back to a run-first offense in Atlanta this year, although the upgrade in QB play will be huge. A repeat of 2008's 2nd half is completely out of the question, but he should post a solid TE1 season. He'll probably go higher than he should, though.
4) Dallas Clark
ADP: 63.2 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Clark posted a career high in receptions and yardage last season, which made up for his decrease in TDs. With the ineffective Harrison gone, replaced by the more productive Anthony Gonzalez, the passing offense has more life in 2009. Make no mistake though as Clark remains the 2nd option behind Reggie Wayne. Manning loves throwing to him, and he has a better chemistry with Manning thanks to his time in this offense. He definitely carries an injury risk, but his upside balances it out nicely.
5) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 73.9 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Winslow is now the starting TE for the Buccaneers.
Overview: Winslow was shuffled from Cleveland to Tampa Bay around the NFL draft, so he's essentially moving laterally from one bad offense to another. Furthermore, the Bucs project as a run-heavy team with the departure of Jon Gruden, so his ability to shine in an innovative passing game is gone. He'll share targets with top WR Antonio Bryant, but with the run-first mentality and the shaky QB situation, he's going to have a hard time being a top 5 TE.
6) Greg Olsen
ADP: 81.8 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Jay Cutler is the new starting QB.
Overview: Olsen is set to join the elite TEs this season, so if I can land him in the 7th round, I'm going to be elated. Cutler has always shown a fondness for his TEs, using Scheffler regularly in Denver, and Olsen is even more talented. Cutler and Olsen have been hanging out quite a bit this offseason, so they already have a head start working on a bond together. Olsen already posted a TE1 season last year with shaky QB play, so the steady arm of Cutler will allow him to take the next jump. He's a great TE1 target.
7) Chris Cooley
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Despite the awful offense that surrounded him in the 2nd half of the season, Cooley managed to post a career high in receptions and yardage, but completely irritated owners with only 1 TD. Expect a regression towards the mean with a decrease in receptions and yardage this season, but an increase in TDs. Cooley is as steady as they come and he's being drafted just about right.
8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 89.5 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Daniels turned in a great season last year as a late pick, but was similar frustrating as Cooley that despite posting over 800 receiving yards, he only scored 2 TDs. The problem with him is that both AJ and Walters are such great red zone targets, so he's not a go-to option near the goal line. I expect a couple more TDs from him this year, but he's being drafted just about right.
9) John Carlson
ADP: 99.8 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh
Overview: Carlson posted a pretty impressive rookie TE campaign of 627 yards and 5 TDs. He looked like the best receiving target on the team for much of the year and finally gave Seattle the receiving presence at the TE position that they have been looking for. The problem is the uncertain offense that Jim Mora Jr. will run, and whether or not it'll include Carlson as much as Holmgren's did. Given the uncertain role and the increased WR talent around him, Carlson might struggle to top his 2008 numbers, so I would look somewhere else for your TE1.
10) Zach Miller
ADP: 116.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Darius Heyward-Bey.
Overview: There aren't too many TE's that post almost 800 yards, but then get drafted 10th overall last year. The weak offense held him to 1 TD, but that's a bit fluky. Miller should be able to join the middle tiered TEs this year with a few more scores, and given what he accomplished last season in a horrible passing game, there's room for upside here. Think Chris Cooley.
11) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 123.9 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: After an offseason trade upgrade Shockey's surrounding offense, he got hurt again and never fully acclimated himself into the Saints offense. Now given a full offseason in his new surroundings, this is a put up or shut up year for Shockey. He couldn't ask for a better passing attack to be a part of, and he's coming at a large discount this year. If you're into waiting for a TE, Shockey is a perfect selection this year.
12) Dustin Keller
ADP: 124.9 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens.
Overview: Keller had a real nice stretch from weeks 10-13, catching at least 6 passes each week, but that was sandwiched around mostly uneventful weeks as well. Keller was as much of a slot receiver as a TE given his inability to block successfully, and given the Jets didn't upgrade their WRs much at all, expect him to hold onto that same role and improve in 2009. His numbers should go up a bit, but with either a rookie or an uninspiring veteran taking over the offense, his upside is only so high. He's a decent end-game TE1.
Other TEs To Keep An Eye On:
Tony Scheffler - A season after posting a solid season despite missing 4 games due to injury, Scheffler isn't even drafted as a TE1 this season. This is for good reason because the Broncos are moving to a less TE-friendly offense as NE has never featured one, but Scheffler is a talent that shouldn't be wasted. He's too risky to have as your TE1, but he's worth stashing as a TE2 to see what his new role is.
Heath Miller - Miller was again completely underused last season, and since he'll be returning to the exact same offense, it's near impossible to predict much else. The upside is if the line improves it's blocking, it'll free Miller up to run some more routes. He's worth a TE2 stash to find out.
Vernon Davis - Another disappointing season last year hit rock bottom when new coach Mike Singletary sent him to the lockers after a disagreement on the field. Martz honestly had no idea how to use him, and Davis didn't force his hand with a questionable work ethic. He's the perfect type of elite talent to stash as a TE2 to see if he finally gets it this year, and if he's used right in the new offense.
Brent Celek - SLEEPER ALERT. Celek made waves in the playoffs last season after taking over as the starting TE, and there's good reason to think that he'll continue his success. A move as high as a mid-tiered TE would not surprise, so if you want to wait really late, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Celek as a TE1. I don't view him as a fluke, but his upside is limited by the Eagles ability to spread the ball around.
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 42.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, Witten managed to still post a solid TE1 season. His TD total dropped, but part of that can be blamed on Tony Romo's injury as well as the injuries. With Owens now gone, Witten will definitely be Romo's go-to guy, and he should post another very good season.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Gates, much like Witten, also dealt with a number of injuries, but he also battled through it and posted a solid TE1 season as well. The emergence of Vincent Jackson has meant that Gates has a 1B option to share the ball with, but Rivers will still look to Gates on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Gates will likely lead the Chargers in receptions again, and he makes for a great TE1 option at a slight discount from previous seasons.
3) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 56.9 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is now the starting TE for the Falcons.
Overview: Expectations are probably sky-high for Gonzalez this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if people started taking him as the first TE off the board. Thanks to the Chiefs transitioning to a spread offense mid-season last year, Gonzalez finished as the #1 TE with a huge 2nd half. Gonzo moves back to a run-first offense in Atlanta this year, although the upgrade in QB play will be huge. A repeat of 2008's 2nd half is completely out of the question, but he should post a solid TE1 season. He'll probably go higher than he should, though.
4) Dallas Clark
ADP: 63.2 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Clark posted a career high in receptions and yardage last season, which made up for his decrease in TDs. With the ineffective Harrison gone, replaced by the more productive Anthony Gonzalez, the passing offense has more life in 2009. Make no mistake though as Clark remains the 2nd option behind Reggie Wayne. Manning loves throwing to him, and he has a better chemistry with Manning thanks to his time in this offense. He definitely carries an injury risk, but his upside balances it out nicely.
5) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 73.9 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Winslow is now the starting TE for the Buccaneers.
Overview: Winslow was shuffled from Cleveland to Tampa Bay around the NFL draft, so he's essentially moving laterally from one bad offense to another. Furthermore, the Bucs project as a run-heavy team with the departure of Jon Gruden, so his ability to shine in an innovative passing game is gone. He'll share targets with top WR Antonio Bryant, but with the run-first mentality and the shaky QB situation, he's going to have a hard time being a top 5 TE.
6) Greg Olsen
ADP: 81.8 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Jay Cutler is the new starting QB.
Overview: Olsen is set to join the elite TEs this season, so if I can land him in the 7th round, I'm going to be elated. Cutler has always shown a fondness for his TEs, using Scheffler regularly in Denver, and Olsen is even more talented. Cutler and Olsen have been hanging out quite a bit this offseason, so they already have a head start working on a bond together. Olsen already posted a TE1 season last year with shaky QB play, so the steady arm of Cutler will allow him to take the next jump. He's a great TE1 target.
7) Chris Cooley
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Despite the awful offense that surrounded him in the 2nd half of the season, Cooley managed to post a career high in receptions and yardage, but completely irritated owners with only 1 TD. Expect a regression towards the mean with a decrease in receptions and yardage this season, but an increase in TDs. Cooley is as steady as they come and he's being drafted just about right.
8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 89.5 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Daniels turned in a great season last year as a late pick, but was similar frustrating as Cooley that despite posting over 800 receiving yards, he only scored 2 TDs. The problem with him is that both AJ and Walters are such great red zone targets, so he's not a go-to option near the goal line. I expect a couple more TDs from him this year, but he's being drafted just about right.
9) John Carlson
ADP: 99.8 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh
Overview: Carlson posted a pretty impressive rookie TE campaign of 627 yards and 5 TDs. He looked like the best receiving target on the team for much of the year and finally gave Seattle the receiving presence at the TE position that they have been looking for. The problem is the uncertain offense that Jim Mora Jr. will run, and whether or not it'll include Carlson as much as Holmgren's did. Given the uncertain role and the increased WR talent around him, Carlson might struggle to top his 2008 numbers, so I would look somewhere else for your TE1.
10) Zach Miller
ADP: 116.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Darius Heyward-Bey.
Overview: There aren't too many TE's that post almost 800 yards, but then get drafted 10th overall last year. The weak offense held him to 1 TD, but that's a bit fluky. Miller should be able to join the middle tiered TEs this year with a few more scores, and given what he accomplished last season in a horrible passing game, there's room for upside here. Think Chris Cooley.
11) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 123.9 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: After an offseason trade upgrade Shockey's surrounding offense, he got hurt again and never fully acclimated himself into the Saints offense. Now given a full offseason in his new surroundings, this is a put up or shut up year for Shockey. He couldn't ask for a better passing attack to be a part of, and he's coming at a large discount this year. If you're into waiting for a TE, Shockey is a perfect selection this year.
12) Dustin Keller
ADP: 124.9 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens.
Overview: Keller had a real nice stretch from weeks 10-13, catching at least 6 passes each week, but that was sandwiched around mostly uneventful weeks as well. Keller was as much of a slot receiver as a TE given his inability to block successfully, and given the Jets didn't upgrade their WRs much at all, expect him to hold onto that same role and improve in 2009. His numbers should go up a bit, but with either a rookie or an uninspiring veteran taking over the offense, his upside is only so high. He's a decent end-game TE1.
Other TEs To Keep An Eye On:
Tony Scheffler - A season after posting a solid season despite missing 4 games due to injury, Scheffler isn't even drafted as a TE1 this season. This is for good reason because the Broncos are moving to a less TE-friendly offense as NE has never featured one, but Scheffler is a talent that shouldn't be wasted. He's too risky to have as your TE1, but he's worth stashing as a TE2 to see what his new role is.
Heath Miller - Miller was again completely underused last season, and since he'll be returning to the exact same offense, it's near impossible to predict much else. The upside is if the line improves it's blocking, it'll free Miller up to run some more routes. He's worth a TE2 stash to find out.
Vernon Davis - Another disappointing season last year hit rock bottom when new coach Mike Singletary sent him to the lockers after a disagreement on the field. Martz honestly had no idea how to use him, and Davis didn't force his hand with a questionable work ethic. He's the perfect type of elite talent to stash as a TE2 to see if he finally gets it this year, and if he's used right in the new offense.
Brent Celek - SLEEPER ALERT. Celek made waves in the playoffs last season after taking over as the starting TE, and there's good reason to think that he'll continue his success. A move as high as a mid-tiered TE would not surprise, so if you want to wait really late, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Celek as a TE1. I don't view him as a fluke, but his upside is limited by the Eagles ability to spread the ball around.
2009 WR5 Value Analysis
49) Hakeem Nicks
ADP: 143.0 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nicks is the new backup WR for the Giants.
Overview: As it stands right now, Nicks is a bit overvalued, but only in the WR4 sense. Since he's on the fringe, it means some people are taking him as a WR4, and he might not be ready by the time you need a backup WR come bye weeks. Nicks has been referred to as the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft, and if he can put that on display on the practice field and in preseason, it's possible he'll pass Domenick Hixon sooner than later. He still has to beat him out to start and be a fantasy factor. Keep an eye on his preseason progress.
50) Steve Smith
ADP: 150.3 (13th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Smith is the new starting WR for the Giants.
Overview: Despite all the talk about Hixon vs. Nicks vs. Manningham, there's Steve Smith, the guy that's actually anchored into a defined starting role as the new Amani Toomer for this squad. There's a very good chance he leads the Giants in receptions, and possibly in even receiving yards this season. Hell, if those three split time, he could even lead the team in TDs. I think Smith is an excellent WR4 with a very good potential for WR3 value this season.
51) Muhsin Muhammad
ADP: 174.7 (15th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Muhammad is aging, seeing fewer targets, and still plays on a run heavy offense with a declining QB. You should be using your WR5 position on exciting young talent that could make a leap, not a veteran that offers no upside.
52) Miles Austin
ADP: 175.9 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Austin is the new starting slot WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: The Cowboys have been hyping up Austin this offseason, and given the limited upside of Patrick Crayton, Austin has a chance to start sooner or later opposite Roy Williams. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity and is being pushed by Sam Hurd. He's an upside WR5 pick, but he isn't assured of a concrete role on the offense.
53) Nate Washington
ADP: 178.0 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Washington is competing to be the new starting WR for the Titans.
Overview: The Titans went out and spent money to bring in Nate Washington as a field stretcher for their offense this season. Kerry Collins certainly still has the arm to hit him deep, so it wouldn't shock me if Washington led the Titans in receiving yards and even TDs. However, his preseason hamstring injury could cost him up to several regular season games, and Kenny Britt has made a big impact so far. Depending on Britt's performance and how long Washington is out, he might not have a starting job when he recovers. Draft at your own peril, but he's not a horrible speculator WR5.
54) Greg Camarillo
ADP: 179.3 (15th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Brian Hartline.
Overview: Camarillo has apparently lost his battle to be a starting WR to rookie Brian Hartline. Don't bother.
55) Joey Galloway
ADP: 186.9 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: No.
56) Davone Bess
ADP: 189.3 (16th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: See Camarillo above.
57) Sidney Rice
ADP: 189.8 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: What an ADP difference hype makes between Harvin and Rice. People have forgotten about how talented Sydney Rice was coming out of school, and if he's finally healthy, he could take a leap in production and certainly keep Percy Harvin to a slot/gimmick role. It's entirely possible that Harvin takes a huge step forward and wins the job, but a healthy Rice is a great fit opposite Bernard Berrian. He's someone to keep an eye on in the preseason, but it appears that Harvin will pass him sooner than later. He's a decent guy to stash, but don't expect much.
58) Chris Henry
ADP: 190.1 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Henry is going to start the season as the slot WR, but with the Bengals likely to use many 3 WR formations, he's going to be on the field quite a bit, just like he usually has been throughout his career. Better yet, if CJ just can't find it again, Henry will replace him on the outside. He's a fringe bye week fill-in as slot receivers are always inconsistent in their production, but he has upside to be an every week starter should something happen to CJ or Coles. He's a good WR5 to have stashed. Henry's ADP has shot up quite a bit since I wrote this, and you could risk him as a WR4, but I'd still feel more comfortable with him as a WR5. If he earned a starting role, he'd immediately be a WR3.
59) Darius Heyward-Bey
ADP: 195.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DHB is going to generate excitement with his track speed, but he is not NFL ready despite the fact he's probably going to start for the Raiders this year. Expect some big plays, but on a run-first offense, with Jamarcus Russell as his QB, and the fact he's very green behind the ears, I'd rather leave him on the waiver wire to see if he can emerge at some point. Odds are he won't in 2009.
60) Josh Morgan
ADP: 196.8 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Morgan is the new starting WR for the 49ers.
Overview: SLEEPER ALERT. Morgan is a great deep sleeper this year...he's my Antonio Bryant of 2009. It's true that he's going to start on a run-first offense, and that Michael Crabtree is also aboard, but I expect Morgan to post the best line of 49ers receivers this year. Shaun Hill is an underrated, albeit unexciting QB, Frank Gore will keep defenses focused on him, and Crabtree's learning curve has been stunted thanks to recovering from a foot injury. I love Morgan as much as a WR4 this year, with WR3 upside. For a WR5 price, it's definitely worth investing.
Other WRs To Keep An Eye On:
Mark Bradley - He's going to start opposite Dwayne Bowe on a shotgun-based spread offense. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone has to step up to be the secondary option. Bradley certainly has the talent, but he's also very injury-prone. He's a solid WR5 to see what happens.
Brian Hartline - Hartline has beaten out Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to be the starting WR opposite Ted Ginn. With Ginn's inconsistency, there's an outside chance Hartline could lead the Phins in receiving. He's a decent WR5 to stash.
Kenny Britt - Britt has made a big splash in the preseason, and with Nate Washington's hamstring injury, he has a chance to claim the starting role opposite Justin Gage. He's definitely a solid WR5 to see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.
ADP: 143.0 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nicks is the new backup WR for the Giants.
Overview: As it stands right now, Nicks is a bit overvalued, but only in the WR4 sense. Since he's on the fringe, it means some people are taking him as a WR4, and he might not be ready by the time you need a backup WR come bye weeks. Nicks has been referred to as the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft, and if he can put that on display on the practice field and in preseason, it's possible he'll pass Domenick Hixon sooner than later. He still has to beat him out to start and be a fantasy factor. Keep an eye on his preseason progress.
50) Steve Smith
ADP: 150.3 (13th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Smith is the new starting WR for the Giants.
Overview: Despite all the talk about Hixon vs. Nicks vs. Manningham, there's Steve Smith, the guy that's actually anchored into a defined starting role as the new Amani Toomer for this squad. There's a very good chance he leads the Giants in receptions, and possibly in even receiving yards this season. Hell, if those three split time, he could even lead the team in TDs. I think Smith is an excellent WR4 with a very good potential for WR3 value this season.
51) Muhsin Muhammad
ADP: 174.7 (15th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Muhammad is aging, seeing fewer targets, and still plays on a run heavy offense with a declining QB. You should be using your WR5 position on exciting young talent that could make a leap, not a veteran that offers no upside.
52) Miles Austin
ADP: 175.9 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Austin is the new starting slot WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: The Cowboys have been hyping up Austin this offseason, and given the limited upside of Patrick Crayton, Austin has a chance to start sooner or later opposite Roy Williams. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity and is being pushed by Sam Hurd. He's an upside WR5 pick, but he isn't assured of a concrete role on the offense.
53) Nate Washington
ADP: 178.0 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Washington is competing to be the new starting WR for the Titans.
Overview: The Titans went out and spent money to bring in Nate Washington as a field stretcher for their offense this season. Kerry Collins certainly still has the arm to hit him deep, so it wouldn't shock me if Washington led the Titans in receiving yards and even TDs. However, his preseason hamstring injury could cost him up to several regular season games, and Kenny Britt has made a big impact so far. Depending on Britt's performance and how long Washington is out, he might not have a starting job when he recovers. Draft at your own peril, but he's not a horrible speculator WR5.
54) Greg Camarillo
ADP: 179.3 (15th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Brian Hartline.
Overview: Camarillo has apparently lost his battle to be a starting WR to rookie Brian Hartline. Don't bother.
55) Joey Galloway
ADP: 186.9 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: No.
56) Davone Bess
ADP: 189.3 (16th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: See Camarillo above.
57) Sidney Rice
ADP: 189.8 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: What an ADP difference hype makes between Harvin and Rice. People have forgotten about how talented Sydney Rice was coming out of school, and if he's finally healthy, he could take a leap in production and certainly keep Percy Harvin to a slot/gimmick role. It's entirely possible that Harvin takes a huge step forward and wins the job, but a healthy Rice is a great fit opposite Bernard Berrian. He's someone to keep an eye on in the preseason, but it appears that Harvin will pass him sooner than later. He's a decent guy to stash, but don't expect much.
58) Chris Henry
ADP: 190.1 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Henry is going to start the season as the slot WR, but with the Bengals likely to use many 3 WR formations, he's going to be on the field quite a bit, just like he usually has been throughout his career. Better yet, if CJ just can't find it again, Henry will replace him on the outside. He's a fringe bye week fill-in as slot receivers are always inconsistent in their production, but he has upside to be an every week starter should something happen to CJ or Coles. He's a good WR5 to have stashed. Henry's ADP has shot up quite a bit since I wrote this, and you could risk him as a WR4, but I'd still feel more comfortable with him as a WR5. If he earned a starting role, he'd immediately be a WR3.
59) Darius Heyward-Bey
ADP: 195.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DHB is going to generate excitement with his track speed, but he is not NFL ready despite the fact he's probably going to start for the Raiders this year. Expect some big plays, but on a run-first offense, with Jamarcus Russell as his QB, and the fact he's very green behind the ears, I'd rather leave him on the waiver wire to see if he can emerge at some point. Odds are he won't in 2009.
60) Josh Morgan
ADP: 196.8 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Morgan is the new starting WR for the 49ers.
Overview: SLEEPER ALERT. Morgan is a great deep sleeper this year...he's my Antonio Bryant of 2009. It's true that he's going to start on a run-first offense, and that Michael Crabtree is also aboard, but I expect Morgan to post the best line of 49ers receivers this year. Shaun Hill is an underrated, albeit unexciting QB, Frank Gore will keep defenses focused on him, and Crabtree's learning curve has been stunted thanks to recovering from a foot injury. I love Morgan as much as a WR4 this year, with WR3 upside. For a WR5 price, it's definitely worth investing.
Other WRs To Keep An Eye On:
Mark Bradley - He's going to start opposite Dwayne Bowe on a shotgun-based spread offense. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone has to step up to be the secondary option. Bradley certainly has the talent, but he's also very injury-prone. He's a solid WR5 to see what happens.
Brian Hartline - Hartline has beaten out Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to be the starting WR opposite Ted Ginn. With Ginn's inconsistency, there's an outside chance Hartline could lead the Phins in receiving. He's a decent WR5 to stash.
Kenny Britt - Britt has made a big splash in the preseason, and with Nate Washington's hamstring injury, he has a chance to claim the starting role opposite Justin Gage. He's definitely a solid WR5 to see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
2009 WR4 Value Analysis
37) Michael Cratree
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Crabtree is the new WR for the 49ers.
Overview: Crabtree is still holding out and has no hope for an early season impact with the 49ers. He could prove to be productive sometime in the 2nd half, but I'd avoid drafting him altogether.
38) Devin Hester
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Hester started to make some strides as a WR last season as he was pulled from kick returns and started focusing on being a full-time WR. With that added experience usually comes added production, and now he has a QB that can consistently get him the ball deep down the field. He is easily the most talented WR on the team, and he will likely lead the Bears in receiving yardage. He'll defintely have some down games as he continues to adjust to being a WR at the NFL level, but I think he'll put up enough good games to be a solid WR3.
39) Domenik Hixon
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks.
Overview: Hixon was the first choice to replace Burress, and he did so to mixed reviews. He can definitely make plays, but he didn't overwhelm anyone. That being said, it lead the Giants to draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round with the thought that he'll eventually become their #1 go-to receiver. With Steve Smith expected to settle in as the possession receiver, the Giants will take a hard look at Hixon, last year's draft pick Mario Manningham, and 1st rounder Hakeen Nicks for their vacant WR spots. I fully expect Hixon to start in week 1, but he'll eventually be pushed by the more talented Hicks, called the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft. He should have his chances, but he's a bit of a risk. Make sure he's your WR4.
40) Ted Ginn Jr.
ADP: 109.9 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ginn is a great value pick in 2009. There have been very positive reports about Ginn so far this offseason, and while a lot of it is fluff, there's reason to believe that Ginn is ready to take the next step. There's no question that he possesses the speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL WR, but it's his hands and route running that needed work. I think Ginn can take a step up to a WR3, or at the very best a WR2, but Pennington's weak arm, the run-first mentality of the Dolphins, and Ginn's learning curve will limit exactly how good he'll be this year. He's best fit as a WR4 until he proves otherwise, but he certainly has potential.
41) Chris Chambers
ADP: 112.2 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Chambers started off through 5 games with a ridiculous 5 TDs on only 11 catches, but then an ankle injury killed his season as he fell to 3rd fiddle in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. Chambers isn't going to suddenly become a favorite target, and there are only so many targets to go around on a team that still relies on the run. He's a decent WR4, but a re-emergence as a fantasy starter is probably asking too much.
42) Jeremy Maclin
ADP: 112.5 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Maclin is a slot/backup WR for the Eagles.
Overview: I imagine fantasy nation is believing Maclin will repeat DeSean Jackson's season from last year, but I don't believe this will be the case. Maclin is at best 3rd on the depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and he'll be transitioning from a college spread offense to a pro-style, WCO offense. It will be a lot to ask for Maclin to step in, learn the offense, and start right away. Odds are he's a year away from being fantasy relevant, so I'd opt for someone with a more defined role as my WR4.
43) Mark Clayton
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Clayton has long been a breakout candidate for 2 years now, but he never seems to come through on his promise. After a promising sophomore season, he's thrown up two duds. Derrick Mason has dominated the targets, and the passing attack has been mediocre. This will continue to be a run dominated offense, Mason has decided to return, and Clayton now has yet another leg injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks. Clayton can't stay healthy, and he's not going to see enough targets when on the field. Worse yet, Demetrius Williams will have a chance to take Clayton's job while he's hurt. Pass.
44) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin
Overview: Curtis had a lost 2008 season due to a sports hernia that caused him to miss almost half of it, but he returned to be a solid contributor to the offense in the 2nd half. He's going to start opposite DeSean Jackson, and he should post a solid season. He's quick, reliable, and a good fit for the WCO that the Eagles run. Jeremy Maclin might start pushing him later in the season as a younger, more explosive option, but expect Curtis to turn in a solid WR4 season with WR3 potential.
45) Percy Harvin
ADP: 129.7 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Harvin is the new slot WR for the Vikings.
Overview: As it stands right now, Harvin is going to backup both WR positions and play the slot in 3 WR looks. He'll also man the Wildcat QB position, and he'll probably line up in the backfield as well. Harvin has a boatload of talent, and the Vikings will move him all around the field, and they will find ways to get him the ball. He's already their 2nd most talented position player behind Adrian Peterson. There's no way I'd draft him as a WR3, but he has that upside. He's best fit as a WR4 until you see how they plan to use him.
46) Deion Branch
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Think about what Branch has done since leaving New England. Now consider he had another offseason knee surgery. Is this someone you want as your top backup WR?
47) Justin Gage
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: Gage missed a few games with injuries, but he emerged as the go-to receiver in the Titans passing game and posted a great 10/135 line in their playoff game. Playing with a heavy run-first offense and Kerry Collins as his QB limits his upside, but Gage is a big receiver that fits well into the Titans' game plan. Nate Washington will provide a nice deep threat opposite him. I think Gage is a solid WR4 who can be counted on to start and produce decent numbers on bye weeks and for injuries.
48) Michael Jenkins
ADP: 137.6 (12th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'll keep this one simple as well. He posted 777 yards and 3 TDs in his career year. He plays for a run-first offense, and he'll be the 3rd option at best in the passing game. He's not fast nor a game breaker. He'll have a few decent games, but you can aim higher. He's a WR5 at best.
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Crabtree is the new WR for the 49ers.
Overview: Crabtree is still holding out and has no hope for an early season impact with the 49ers. He could prove to be productive sometime in the 2nd half, but I'd avoid drafting him altogether.
38) Devin Hester
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Hester started to make some strides as a WR last season as he was pulled from kick returns and started focusing on being a full-time WR. With that added experience usually comes added production, and now he has a QB that can consistently get him the ball deep down the field. He is easily the most talented WR on the team, and he will likely lead the Bears in receiving yardage. He'll defintely have some down games as he continues to adjust to being a WR at the NFL level, but I think he'll put up enough good games to be a solid WR3.
39) Domenik Hixon
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks.
Overview: Hixon was the first choice to replace Burress, and he did so to mixed reviews. He can definitely make plays, but he didn't overwhelm anyone. That being said, it lead the Giants to draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round with the thought that he'll eventually become their #1 go-to receiver. With Steve Smith expected to settle in as the possession receiver, the Giants will take a hard look at Hixon, last year's draft pick Mario Manningham, and 1st rounder Hakeen Nicks for their vacant WR spots. I fully expect Hixon to start in week 1, but he'll eventually be pushed by the more talented Hicks, called the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft. He should have his chances, but he's a bit of a risk. Make sure he's your WR4.
40) Ted Ginn Jr.
ADP: 109.9 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ginn is a great value pick in 2009. There have been very positive reports about Ginn so far this offseason, and while a lot of it is fluff, there's reason to believe that Ginn is ready to take the next step. There's no question that he possesses the speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL WR, but it's his hands and route running that needed work. I think Ginn can take a step up to a WR3, or at the very best a WR2, but Pennington's weak arm, the run-first mentality of the Dolphins, and Ginn's learning curve will limit exactly how good he'll be this year. He's best fit as a WR4 until he proves otherwise, but he certainly has potential.
41) Chris Chambers
ADP: 112.2 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Chambers started off through 5 games with a ridiculous 5 TDs on only 11 catches, but then an ankle injury killed his season as he fell to 3rd fiddle in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. Chambers isn't going to suddenly become a favorite target, and there are only so many targets to go around on a team that still relies on the run. He's a decent WR4, but a re-emergence as a fantasy starter is probably asking too much.
42) Jeremy Maclin
ADP: 112.5 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Maclin is a slot/backup WR for the Eagles.
Overview: I imagine fantasy nation is believing Maclin will repeat DeSean Jackson's season from last year, but I don't believe this will be the case. Maclin is at best 3rd on the depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and he'll be transitioning from a college spread offense to a pro-style, WCO offense. It will be a lot to ask for Maclin to step in, learn the offense, and start right away. Odds are he's a year away from being fantasy relevant, so I'd opt for someone with a more defined role as my WR4.
43) Mark Clayton
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Clayton has long been a breakout candidate for 2 years now, but he never seems to come through on his promise. After a promising sophomore season, he's thrown up two duds. Derrick Mason has dominated the targets, and the passing attack has been mediocre. This will continue to be a run dominated offense, Mason has decided to return, and Clayton now has yet another leg injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks. Clayton can't stay healthy, and he's not going to see enough targets when on the field. Worse yet, Demetrius Williams will have a chance to take Clayton's job while he's hurt. Pass.
44) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin
Overview: Curtis had a lost 2008 season due to a sports hernia that caused him to miss almost half of it, but he returned to be a solid contributor to the offense in the 2nd half. He's going to start opposite DeSean Jackson, and he should post a solid season. He's quick, reliable, and a good fit for the WCO that the Eagles run. Jeremy Maclin might start pushing him later in the season as a younger, more explosive option, but expect Curtis to turn in a solid WR4 season with WR3 potential.
45) Percy Harvin
ADP: 129.7 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Harvin is the new slot WR for the Vikings.
Overview: As it stands right now, Harvin is going to backup both WR positions and play the slot in 3 WR looks. He'll also man the Wildcat QB position, and he'll probably line up in the backfield as well. Harvin has a boatload of talent, and the Vikings will move him all around the field, and they will find ways to get him the ball. He's already their 2nd most talented position player behind Adrian Peterson. There's no way I'd draft him as a WR3, but he has that upside. He's best fit as a WR4 until you see how they plan to use him.
46) Deion Branch
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Think about what Branch has done since leaving New England. Now consider he had another offseason knee surgery. Is this someone you want as your top backup WR?
47) Justin Gage
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: Gage missed a few games with injuries, but he emerged as the go-to receiver in the Titans passing game and posted a great 10/135 line in their playoff game. Playing with a heavy run-first offense and Kerry Collins as his QB limits his upside, but Gage is a big receiver that fits well into the Titans' game plan. Nate Washington will provide a nice deep threat opposite him. I think Gage is a solid WR4 who can be counted on to start and produce decent numbers on bye weeks and for injuries.
48) Michael Jenkins
ADP: 137.6 (12th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'll keep this one simple as well. He posted 777 yards and 3 TDs in his career year. He plays for a run-first offense, and he'll be the 3rd option at best in the passing game. He's not fast nor a game breaker. He'll have a few decent games, but you can aim higher. He's a WR5 at best.
2009 WR3 Value Analysis
25) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 64.7 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Holmes disappointed a bit in 2008 by not living up to the preseason hype. He never hit the 100 yard make in any game...prior to the Super Bowl where he blew up for 9/131 in his best game of the year. With Hines Ward starting his decline, Holmes is set to finally take over the primary WR responsibilities. Expect Holmes' best season to date and solid WR2 value.
26) Lance Moore
ADP: 66.0 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Moore came out of nowhere to post an incredible season that included 10 TDs. I expect him to regress back to 5-6 TDs, but probably turn in his first 1,000 yard season this year. Keep in mind that with Colston returning and Shockey putting in a full offseason, Moore probably won't see as many targets, but he's an excellent fit for the Saints offense and will like turning in a low WR2/high WR3 season.
27) Hines Ward
ADP: 69.2 (6th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: One more shot with this. WR declines are a bit unpredictable, but there comes a certain point where I don't draft a WR anymore. Last season was just that for me with Ward, and while I missed a pretty solid season, I want my WR3s to have upside to be a WR2, or even a WR1 if I'm lucky. I expect this to be the year that Holmes becomes the preferred target, and while Ward is still a solid possession receiver, expect him to start losing targets and fantasy value.
28) Santana Moss
ADP: 71.2 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Much like the rest of the Redskins offense, Moss collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. Nearly identical to Lee Evans, he posted about half as many yards and only 1 TD after spending the first half of the season among the best fantasy WRs. The Redskins return the same talent on that side of the ball. If Campbell could finally put it together, Moss would be a WR2, but he can't be trusted as such given what we've seen thus far. I think the problem is that Campbell is more of a vertical QB stuck in the WCO offense that Zorn prefers. He should post WR3 numbers, but it's going to take a leap from Campbell to do much more than that.
29) Laveranues Coles
ADP: 74.0 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Coles is now the starting WR for the Bengals.
Overview: Coles is nearing that age where I stop drafting WRs as he's now 32, and he's also got a lengthy history of being banged up (but playing through most of it). Coles doesn't figure to age well given his injury history, but he's going to a great situation opposite Chad Ochocinco with Palmer as his QB. This is going to be a throwing team, and I think Coles has another borderline WR2/WR3 value. You could argue he's a touch undervalued, but I'd rather have him as my WR3.
30) Kevin Walter
ADP: 76.0 (7th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Walter came out of nowhere to be a part of the high flying Texans offense. He's in a perfect spot opposite Andre Johnson, with Owen Daniels working the middle of the field. Walter is a good bet to match his 2008 production in what projects to be a very good offense once again.
31) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 78.9 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: Berrian is at his best going deep, but he's not a reliable receiver going over the middle, which limits his upside. He struggled with Tavaris Jackson behind center for much of last season, so Rosenfels would be a welcome addition as he'll have no problem finding Berrian down the field. He'd go to slightly undervalued in this case, but I doubt you'll see Berrian making any huge jumps in production with either QB.
32) Torry Holt
ADP: 81.2 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Holt is now the starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Don't let the name fool you, Holt is not the same WR anymore. A fresh start in Jacksonville should help, but with the inability to separate like he used to, Holt has been reduced to a possession receiver. WR3 is essentially his ceiling, so pass him up for better upside picks.
33) Steve Breaston
ADP: 81.3 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Arizona is not going to repeat their passing proficiency from last season, so don't expect Breaston to post WR3 numbers like he's being drafted to do. He'll have some good weeks, but it's going to take a sudden Boldin trade or an injury for him to be startable in fantasy leagues. Think Brandon Stokley after Mannings record-breaking season.
34) Donnie Avery
ADP: 81.9 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, signed WR Ronald Curry.
Overview: Avery had a slight breakout in 2008, posting several decent games, but was mostly bench material. Fantasy nation expects him to take a step forward in 2009 and be an every week WR3, and I'm inclined to agree. With defenses loading up to stop Steven Jackson, and with the addition of Ronald Curry to man the possession receiver role, Avery just needs Bulger to go back to being a decent NFL QB to put up a WR3 season. There's some downside here, but that's the case with most WR3s. He's a decent one.
35) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens is the new starting QB, released WR Laveranues Coles.
Overview: I expected Cotchery to take a step forward in 2008, but it just never happened. Even when Favre was healthy, Coles performed just as well, and Cotchery never became the primary target. Cotchery will now draw the opposition's #1 CB each week in a run-first offense with an uncertain QB situation. I still believe in Cotchery's talent, but his surrounding situation isn't setting him up for a big season. I think a WR3 is just right for him, and he should be starting in your lineup most weeks. He still has some untapped upside.
36) Donald Driver
ADP: 93.3 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Driver, like several WRs at this stage in their career, has entered the avoid area. He posted yet another solid season last year, but combining his age with the young talent waiting behind him (Jordy Nelson, James Jones), Driver is hardly a sure bet to be an every week starter.
ADP: 64.7 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Holmes disappointed a bit in 2008 by not living up to the preseason hype. He never hit the 100 yard make in any game...prior to the Super Bowl where he blew up for 9/131 in his best game of the year. With Hines Ward starting his decline, Holmes is set to finally take over the primary WR responsibilities. Expect Holmes' best season to date and solid WR2 value.
26) Lance Moore
ADP: 66.0 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Moore came out of nowhere to post an incredible season that included 10 TDs. I expect him to regress back to 5-6 TDs, but probably turn in his first 1,000 yard season this year. Keep in mind that with Colston returning and Shockey putting in a full offseason, Moore probably won't see as many targets, but he's an excellent fit for the Saints offense and will like turning in a low WR2/high WR3 season.
27) Hines Ward
ADP: 69.2 (6th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: One more shot with this. WR declines are a bit unpredictable, but there comes a certain point where I don't draft a WR anymore. Last season was just that for me with Ward, and while I missed a pretty solid season, I want my WR3s to have upside to be a WR2, or even a WR1 if I'm lucky. I expect this to be the year that Holmes becomes the preferred target, and while Ward is still a solid possession receiver, expect him to start losing targets and fantasy value.
28) Santana Moss
ADP: 71.2 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Much like the rest of the Redskins offense, Moss collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. Nearly identical to Lee Evans, he posted about half as many yards and only 1 TD after spending the first half of the season among the best fantasy WRs. The Redskins return the same talent on that side of the ball. If Campbell could finally put it together, Moss would be a WR2, but he can't be trusted as such given what we've seen thus far. I think the problem is that Campbell is more of a vertical QB stuck in the WCO offense that Zorn prefers. He should post WR3 numbers, but it's going to take a leap from Campbell to do much more than that.
29) Laveranues Coles
ADP: 74.0 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Coles is now the starting WR for the Bengals.
Overview: Coles is nearing that age where I stop drafting WRs as he's now 32, and he's also got a lengthy history of being banged up (but playing through most of it). Coles doesn't figure to age well given his injury history, but he's going to a great situation opposite Chad Ochocinco with Palmer as his QB. This is going to be a throwing team, and I think Coles has another borderline WR2/WR3 value. You could argue he's a touch undervalued, but I'd rather have him as my WR3.
30) Kevin Walter
ADP: 76.0 (7th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Walter came out of nowhere to be a part of the high flying Texans offense. He's in a perfect spot opposite Andre Johnson, with Owen Daniels working the middle of the field. Walter is a good bet to match his 2008 production in what projects to be a very good offense once again.
31) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 78.9 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: Berrian is at his best going deep, but he's not a reliable receiver going over the middle, which limits his upside. He struggled with Tavaris Jackson behind center for much of last season, so Rosenfels would be a welcome addition as he'll have no problem finding Berrian down the field. He'd go to slightly undervalued in this case, but I doubt you'll see Berrian making any huge jumps in production with either QB.
32) Torry Holt
ADP: 81.2 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Holt is now the starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Don't let the name fool you, Holt is not the same WR anymore. A fresh start in Jacksonville should help, but with the inability to separate like he used to, Holt has been reduced to a possession receiver. WR3 is essentially his ceiling, so pass him up for better upside picks.
33) Steve Breaston
ADP: 81.3 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Arizona is not going to repeat their passing proficiency from last season, so don't expect Breaston to post WR3 numbers like he's being drafted to do. He'll have some good weeks, but it's going to take a sudden Boldin trade or an injury for him to be startable in fantasy leagues. Think Brandon Stokley after Mannings record-breaking season.
34) Donnie Avery
ADP: 81.9 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, signed WR Ronald Curry.
Overview: Avery had a slight breakout in 2008, posting several decent games, but was mostly bench material. Fantasy nation expects him to take a step forward in 2009 and be an every week WR3, and I'm inclined to agree. With defenses loading up to stop Steven Jackson, and with the addition of Ronald Curry to man the possession receiver role, Avery just needs Bulger to go back to being a decent NFL QB to put up a WR3 season. There's some downside here, but that's the case with most WR3s. He's a decent one.
35) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens is the new starting QB, released WR Laveranues Coles.
Overview: I expected Cotchery to take a step forward in 2008, but it just never happened. Even when Favre was healthy, Coles performed just as well, and Cotchery never became the primary target. Cotchery will now draw the opposition's #1 CB each week in a run-first offense with an uncertain QB situation. I still believe in Cotchery's talent, but his surrounding situation isn't setting him up for a big season. I think a WR3 is just right for him, and he should be starting in your lineup most weeks. He still has some untapped upside.
36) Donald Driver
ADP: 93.3 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Driver, like several WRs at this stage in their career, has entered the avoid area. He posted yet another solid season last year, but combining his age with the young talent waiting behind him (Jordy Nelson, James Jones), Driver is hardly a sure bet to be an every week starter.
2009 WR2 Value Analysis
13) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's. I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season. He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely. I think the 5th round sounds about right.
14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.
Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain. Let someone else take a chance on him.
15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.
Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.
16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2. Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.
17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.
18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.
Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.
19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.
Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.
21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.
Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.
22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.
24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's. I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season. He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely. I think the 5th round sounds about right.
14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.
Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain. Let someone else take a chance on him.
15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.
Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.
16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2. Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.
17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.
18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.
Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.
19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.
Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.
21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.
Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.
22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.
24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.
2009 WR1 Value Analysis
1) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
2009 RB5 Value Analysis
49) Ahmad Bradshaw
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
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