2009 WR4 Value Analysis

37) Michael Cratree
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Crabtree is the new WR for the 49ers.

Overview: Crabtree is still holding out and has no hope for an early season impact with the 49ers.  He could prove to be productive sometime in the 2nd half, but I'd avoid drafting him altogether.

38) Devin Hester
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: New QB Jay Cutler.

Overview: Hester started to make some strides as a WR last season as he was pulled from kick returns and started focusing on being a full-time WR. With that added experience usually comes added production, and now he has a QB that can consistently get him the ball deep down the field. He is easily the most talented WR on the team, and he will likely lead the Bears in receiving yardage. He'll defintely have some down games as he continues to adjust to being a WR at the NFL level, but I think he'll put up enough good games to be a solid WR3.

39) Domenik Hixon
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks.

Overview: Hixon was the first choice to replace Burress, and he did so to mixed reviews. He can definitely make plays, but he didn't overwhelm anyone. That being said, it lead the Giants to draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round with the thought that he'll eventually become their #1 go-to receiver. With Steve Smith expected to settle in as the possession receiver, the Giants will take a hard look at Hixon, last year's draft pick Mario Manningham, and 1st rounder Hakeen Nicks for their vacant WR spots. I fully expect Hixon to start in week 1, but he'll eventually be pushed by the more talented Hicks, called the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft. He should have his chances, but he's a bit of a risk. Make sure he's your WR4.

40) Ted Ginn Jr.
ADP: 109.9 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Ginn is a great value pick in 2009. There have been very positive reports about Ginn so far this offseason, and while a lot of it is fluff, there's reason to believe that Ginn is ready to take the next step. There's no question that he possesses the speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL WR, but it's his hands and route running that needed work. I think Ginn can take a step up to a WR3, or at the very best a WR2, but Pennington's weak arm, the run-first mentality of the Dolphins, and Ginn's learning curve will limit exactly how good he'll be this year.  He's best fit as a WR4 until he proves otherwise, but he certainly has potential.

41) Chris Chambers
ADP: 112.2 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Chambers started off through 5 games with a ridiculous 5 TDs on only 11 catches, but then an ankle injury killed his season as he fell to 3rd fiddle in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. Chambers isn't going to suddenly become a favorite target, and there are only so many targets to go around on a team that still relies on the run. He's a decent WR4, but a re-emergence as a fantasy starter is probably asking too much.

42) Jeremy Maclin
ADP: 112.5 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Maclin is a slot/backup WR for the Eagles.

Overview: I imagine fantasy nation is believing Maclin will repeat DeSean Jackson's season from last year, but I don't believe this will be the case. Maclin is at best 3rd on the depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and he'll be transitioning from a college spread offense to a pro-style, WCO offense. It will be a lot to ask for Maclin to step in, learn the offense, and start right away. Odds are he's a year away from being fantasy relevant, so I'd opt for someone with a more defined role as my WR4.

43) Mark Clayton
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Clayton has long been a breakout candidate for 2 years now, but he never seems to come through on his promise. After a promising sophomore season, he's thrown up two duds. Derrick Mason has dominated the targets, and the passing attack has been mediocre. This will continue to be a run dominated offense, Mason has decided to return, and Clayton now has yet another leg injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks. Clayton can't stay healthy, and he's not going to see enough targets when on the field. Worse yet, Demetrius Williams will have a chance to take Clayton's job while he's hurt. Pass.

44) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin

Overview: Curtis had a lost 2008 season due to a sports hernia that caused him to miss almost half of it, but he returned to be a solid contributor to the offense in the 2nd half. He's going to start opposite DeSean Jackson, and he should post a solid season. He's quick, reliable, and a good fit for the WCO that the Eagles run. Jeremy Maclin might start pushing him later in the season as a younger, more explosive option, but expect Curtis to turn in a solid WR4 season with WR3 potential.

45) Percy Harvin
ADP: 129.7 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Harvin is the new slot WR for the Vikings.

Overview: As it stands right now, Harvin is going to backup both WR positions and play the slot in 3 WR looks. He'll also man the Wildcat QB position, and he'll probably line up in the backfield as well. Harvin has a boatload of talent, and the Vikings will move him all around the field, and they will find ways to get him the ball.  He's already their 2nd most talented position player behind Adrian Peterson.  There's no way I'd draft him as a WR3, but he has that upside.  He's best fit as a WR4 until you see how they plan to use him.

46) Deion Branch
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Think about what Branch has done since leaving New England. Now consider he had another offseason knee surgery. Is this someone you want as your top backup WR?

47) Justin Gage
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.

Overview: Gage missed a few games with injuries, but he emerged as the go-to receiver in the Titans passing game and posted a great 10/135 line in their playoff game. Playing with a heavy run-first offense and Kerry Collins as his QB limits his upside, but Gage is a big receiver that fits well into the Titans' game plan. Nate Washington will provide a nice deep threat opposite him. I think Gage is a solid WR4 who can be counted on to start and produce decent numbers on bye weeks and for injuries.

48) Michael Jenkins
ADP: 137.6 (12th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: I'll keep this one simple as well. He posted 777 yards and 3 TDs in his career year. He plays for a run-first offense, and he'll be the 3rd option at best in the passing game. He's not fast nor a game breaker. He'll have a few decent games, but you can aim higher. He's a WR5 at best.