2009 WR5 Value Analysis

49) Hakeem Nicks
ADP: 143.0 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nicks is the new backup WR for the Giants.

Overview: As it stands right now, Nicks is a bit overvalued, but only in the WR4 sense. Since he's on the fringe, it means some people are taking him as a WR4, and he might not be ready by the time you need a backup WR come bye weeks. Nicks has been referred to as the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft, and if he can put that on display on the practice field and in preseason, it's possible he'll pass Domenick Hixon sooner than later. He still has to beat him out to start and be a fantasy factor. Keep an eye on his preseason progress.

50) Steve Smith
ADP: 150.3 (13th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Smith is the new starting WR for the Giants.

Overview: Despite all the talk about Hixon vs. Nicks vs. Manningham, there's Steve Smith, the guy that's actually anchored into a defined starting role as the new Amani Toomer for this squad. There's a very good chance he leads the Giants in receptions, and possibly in even receiving yards this season. Hell, if those three split time, he could even lead the team in TDs. I think Smith is an excellent WR4 with a very good potential for WR3 value this season.

51) Muhsin Muhammad
ADP: 174.7 (15th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Muhammad is aging, seeing fewer targets, and still plays on a run heavy offense with a declining QB. You should be using your WR5 position on exciting young talent that could make a leap, not a veteran that offers no upside.

52) Miles Austin
ADP: 175.9 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Austin is the new starting slot WR for the Cowboys.

Overview: The Cowboys have been hyping up Austin this offseason, and given the limited upside of Patrick Crayton, Austin has a chance to start sooner or later opposite Roy Williams. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity and is being pushed by Sam Hurd.  He's an upside WR5 pick, but he isn't assured of a concrete role on the offense.

53) Nate Washington
ADP: 178.0 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


What's Changed In 2009: Washington is competing to be the new starting WR for the Titans.

Overview: The Titans went out and spent money to bring in Nate Washington as a field stretcher for their offense this season. Kerry Collins certainly still has the arm to hit him deep, so it wouldn't shock me if Washington led the Titans in receiving yards and even TDs.  However, his preseason hamstring injury could cost him up to several regular season games, and Kenny Britt has made a big impact so far.  Depending on Britt's performance and how long Washington is out, he might not have a starting job when he recovers.  Draft at your own peril, but he's not a horrible speculator WR5.

54) Greg Camarillo
ADP: 179.3 (15th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Brian Hartline.

Overview: Camarillo has apparently lost his battle to be a starting WR to rookie Brian Hartline.  Don't bother.

55) Joey Galloway
ADP: 186.9 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: No.

56) Davone Bess
ADP: 189.3 (16th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: See Camarillo above.

57) Sidney Rice
ADP: 189.8 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.

Overview: What an ADP difference hype makes between Harvin and Rice. People have forgotten about how talented Sydney Rice was coming out of school, and if he's finally healthy, he could take a leap in production and certainly keep Percy Harvin to a slot/gimmick role. It's entirely possible that Harvin takes a huge step forward and wins the job, but a healthy Rice is a great fit opposite Bernard Berrian. He's someone to keep an eye on in the preseason, but it appears that Harvin will pass him sooner than later.  He's a decent guy to stash, but don't expect much.

58) Chris Henry
ADP: 190.1 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Henry is going to start the season as the slot WR, but with the Bengals likely to use many 3 WR formations, he's going to be on the field quite a bit, just like he usually has been throughout his career. Better yet, if CJ just can't find it again, Henry will replace him on the outside. He's a fringe bye week fill-in as slot receivers are always inconsistent in their production, but he has upside to be an every week starter should something happen to CJ or Coles. He's a good WR5 to have stashed.  Henry's ADP has shot up quite a bit since I wrote this, and you could risk him as a WR4, but I'd still feel more comfortable with him as a WR5.  If he earned a starting role, he'd immediately be a WR3.

59) Darius Heyward-Bey
ADP: 195.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: DHB is going to generate excitement with his track speed, but he is not NFL ready despite the fact he's probably going to start for the Raiders this year. Expect some big plays, but on a run-first offense, with Jamarcus Russell as his QB, and the fact he's very green behind the ears, I'd rather leave him on the waiver wire to see if he can emerge at some point. Odds are he won't in 2009.

60) Josh Morgan
ADP: 196.8 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Morgan is the new starting WR for the 49ers.

Overview: SLEEPER ALERT. Morgan is a great deep sleeper this year...he's my Antonio Bryant of 2009. It's true that he's going to start on a run-first offense, and that Michael Crabtree is also aboard, but I expect Morgan to post the best line of 49ers receivers this year. Shaun Hill is an underrated, albeit unexciting QB, Frank Gore will keep defenses focused on him, and Crabtree's learning curve has been stunted thanks to recovering from a foot injury. I love Morgan as much as a WR4 this year, with WR3 upside. For a WR5 price, it's definitely worth investing.


Other WRs To Keep An Eye On:

Mark Bradley - He's going to start opposite Dwayne Bowe on a shotgun-based spread offense. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone has to step up to be the secondary option. Bradley certainly has the talent, but he's also very injury-prone. He's a solid WR5 to see what happens.

Brian Hartline - Hartline has beaten out Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to be the starting WR opposite Ted Ginn.  With Ginn's inconsistency, there's an outside chance Hartline could lead the Phins in receiving.  He's a decent WR5 to stash.

Kenny Britt - Britt has made a big splash in the preseason, and with Nate Washington's hamstring injury, he has a chance to claim the starting role opposite Justin Gage.  He's definitely a solid WR5 to see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.