2009 WR3 Value Analysis

25) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 64.7 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Holmes disappointed a bit in 2008 by not living up to the preseason hype. He never hit the 100 yard make in any game...prior to the Super Bowl where he blew up for 9/131 in his best game of the year. With Hines Ward starting his decline, Holmes is set to finally take over the primary WR responsibilities. Expect Holmes' best season to date and solid WR2 value.

26) Lance Moore
ADP: 66.0 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Moore came out of nowhere to post an incredible season that included 10 TDs. I expect him to regress back to 5-6 TDs, but probably turn in his first 1,000 yard season this year. Keep in mind that with Colston returning and Shockey putting in a full offseason, Moore probably won't see as many targets, but he's an excellent fit for the Saints offense and will like turning in a low WR2/high WR3 season.

27) Hines Ward
ADP: 69.2 (6th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: One more shot with this. WR declines are a bit unpredictable, but there comes a certain point where I don't draft a WR anymore. Last season was just that for me with Ward, and while I missed a pretty solid season, I want my WR3s to have upside to be a WR2, or even a WR1 if I'm lucky. I expect this to be the year that Holmes becomes the preferred target, and while Ward is still a solid possession receiver, expect him to start losing targets and fantasy value.

28) Santana Moss
ADP: 71.2 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued


What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Much like the rest of the Redskins offense, Moss collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. Nearly identical to Lee Evans, he posted about half as many yards and only 1 TD after spending the first half of the season among the best fantasy WRs. The Redskins return the same talent on that side of the ball. If Campbell could finally put it together, Moss would be a WR2, but he can't be trusted as such given what we've seen thus far. I think the problem is that Campbell is more of a vertical QB stuck in the WCO offense that Zorn prefers. He should post WR3 numbers, but it's going to take a leap from Campbell to do much more than that.

29) Laveranues Coles
ADP: 74.0 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Coles is now the starting WR for the Bengals.

Overview: Coles is nearing that age where I stop drafting WRs as he's now 32, and he's also got a lengthy history of being banged up (but playing through most of it). Coles doesn't figure to age well given his injury history, but he's going to a great situation opposite Chad Ochocinco with Palmer as his QB. This is going to be a throwing team, and I think Coles has another borderline WR2/WR3 value. You could argue he's a touch undervalued, but I'd rather have him as my WR3.

30) Kevin Walter
ADP: 76.0 (7th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Walter came out of nowhere to be a part of the high flying Texans offense. He's in a perfect spot opposite Andre Johnson, with Owen Daniels working the middle of the field. Walter is a good bet to match his 2008 production in what projects to be a very good offense once again.

31) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 78.9 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.

Overview: Berrian is at his best going deep, but he's not a reliable receiver going over the middle, which limits his upside. He struggled with Tavaris Jackson behind center for much of last season, so Rosenfels would be a welcome addition as he'll have no problem finding Berrian down the field. He'd go to slightly undervalued in this case, but I doubt you'll see Berrian making any huge jumps in production with either QB.

32) Torry Holt
ADP: 81.2 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Holt is now the starting WR for the Jaguars.

Overview: Don't let the name fool you, Holt is not the same WR anymore. A fresh start in Jacksonville should help, but with the inability to separate like he used to, Holt has been reduced to a possession receiver. WR3 is essentially his ceiling, so pass him up for better upside picks.

33) Steve Breaston
ADP: 81.3 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Arizona is not going to repeat their passing proficiency from last season, so don't expect Breaston to post WR3 numbers like he's being drafted to do. He'll have some good weeks, but it's going to take a sudden Boldin trade or an injury for him to be startable in fantasy leagues. Think Brandon Stokley after Mannings record-breaking season.

34) Donnie Avery
ADP: 81.9 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, signed WR Ronald Curry.

Overview: Avery had a slight breakout in 2008, posting several decent games, but was mostly bench material. Fantasy nation expects him to take a step forward in 2009 and be an every week WR3, and I'm inclined to agree. With defenses loading up to stop Steven Jackson, and with the addition of Ronald Curry to man the possession receiver role, Avery just needs Bulger to go back to being a decent NFL QB to put up a WR3 season. There's some downside here, but that's the case with most WR3s. He's a decent one.

35) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens is the new starting QB, released WR Laveranues Coles.

Overview: I expected Cotchery to take a step forward in 2008, but it just never happened. Even when Favre was healthy, Coles performed just as well, and Cotchery never became the primary target. Cotchery will now draw the opposition's #1 CB each week in a run-first offense with an uncertain QB situation. I still believe in Cotchery's talent, but his surrounding situation isn't setting him up for a big season. I think a WR3 is just right for him, and he should be starting in your lineup most weeks. He still has some untapped upside.

36) Donald Driver
ADP: 93.3 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Driver, like several WRs at this stage in their career, has entered the avoid area. He posted yet another solid season last year, but combining his age with the young talent waiting behind him (Jordy Nelson, James Jones), Driver is hardly a sure bet to be an every week starter.