2009 ADP Value Analysis Complete

Hey All

I have completed my ADP value analysis for the 2009 season. Like I mentioned last year, I don't do kickers and defenses. So many valuable options emerge early on, and a number of the big named defenses that were drafted in the middle rounds either get dropped or severely underperform. I generally never take a defense before the second to last round unless there's nobody that stands out a round or two before that, and I really like a particular unit. I never take a kicker before the last round, and when I do, I opt for a kicker on a good offense that plays in favorable conditions.

I will make updates to these as more information is known, and as preseason games play out. I will make sure to put down an individual post for each update as I've written down a lot of information and it'll be impossible to weed through the updates without a heads up. Most of the ADP information will stay right about in line with where they're at now, although I did note a couple likely movers (Brett Favre, Ray Rice) that will probably see a spike as more concrete information is known about their roles. Preseason injuries can always play a role as well.

ADP is certainly not the end-all be-all of drafting, but it provides a very valuable guideline on what fantasy nation thinks of each player. For example, I draft in a league full of Bears fans, so odds are guys like Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, and perhaps even Devin Hester will go a round or two above their ADP. If you've played in the same league for several years, you probably know the drafting tendencies of some or most of the owners, and you can take that into consideration when figuring if someone will go too early or not.

If you really like a player, and you feel he is undervalued, plan accordingly and draft him early enough to make sure you get him, but also understand where that line is of taking him too early. Drafting someone too early can turn him from a value pick into a "must perform at the level I expect", which adds to the downside potential of the selection.

Last year, I liked the 4th/5th round RBs a lot, so I decided to take my stud RB 1st, 2 stud WRs in the 2nd/3rd, and then come back with my 2nd RB and 3rd WR in the next two rounds. I haven't looked close enough at everything yet to form a general strategy for this season, but this is another important aspect of preparing for your draft. You never, ever want to stick to a rigid strategy, though. If you do that, you can miss out on a player that has fallen too far at a position you weren't targeting.

So, as always, there's a lot to take into consideration, and hopefully my ADP guide will help you prepare for your draft. Have fun with it, fantasy football draft day is one of the best days of the year!