2009 TE1 Value Analysis

I have never been big on drafting TEs early on. Last year I did perfectly fine waiting and grabbing either Tony Scheffler or Owen Daniels in the 10th or 11th rounds and getting TE1 value from them. I understand the fascination with taking a Jason Witten/Antonio Gates type early in the draft for security measures, but at a 4th/5th round price, I think you're wasting a pick when you can be selecting a more valuable RB/WR instead. Occasionally there's a mid-round guy that I like, and there is one this year, but generally I like waiting til the 10th round or later and snagging two sleepers instead. That being said, let's get on with it...

1) Jason Witten
ADP: 42.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.

Overview: Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, Witten managed to still post a solid TE1 season. His TD total dropped, but part of that can be blamed on Tony Romo's injury as well as the injuries. With Owens now gone, Witten will definitely be Romo's go-to guy, and he should post another very good season.

2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Gates, much like Witten, also dealt with a number of injuries, but he also battled through it and posted a solid TE1 season as well. The emergence of Vincent Jackson has meant that Gates has a 1B option to share the ball with, but Rivers will still look to Gates on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Gates will likely lead the Chargers in receptions again, and he makes for a great TE1 option at a slight discount from previous seasons.

3) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 56.9 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is now the starting TE for the Falcons.

Overview: Expectations are probably sky-high for Gonzalez this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if people started taking him as the first TE off the board. Thanks to the Chiefs transitioning to a spread offense mid-season last year, Gonzalez finished as the #1 TE with a huge 2nd half. Gonzo moves back to a run-first offense in Atlanta this year, although the upgrade in QB play will be huge. A repeat of 2008's 2nd half is completely out of the question, but he should post a solid TE1 season. He'll probably go higher than he should, though.

4) Dallas Clark
ADP: 63.2 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Clark posted a career high in receptions and yardage last season, which made up for his decrease in TDs. With the ineffective Harrison gone, replaced by the more productive Anthony Gonzalez, the passing offense has more life in 2009. Make no mistake though as Clark remains the 2nd option behind Reggie Wayne. Manning loves throwing to him, and he has a better chemistry with Manning thanks to his time in this offense. He definitely carries an injury risk, but his upside balances it out nicely.

5) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 73.9 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Winslow is now the starting TE for the Buccaneers.

Overview: Winslow was shuffled from Cleveland to Tampa Bay around the NFL draft, so he's essentially moving laterally from one bad offense to another. Furthermore, the Bucs project as a run-heavy team with the departure of Jon Gruden, so his ability to shine in an innovative passing game is gone. He'll share targets with top WR Antonio Bryant, but with the run-first mentality and the shaky QB situation, he's going to have a hard time being a top 5 TE.

6) Greg Olsen
ADP: 81.8 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Jay Cutler is the new starting QB.

Overview: Olsen is set to join the elite TEs this season, so if I can land him in the 7th round, I'm going to be elated. Cutler has always shown a fondness for his TEs, using Scheffler regularly in Denver, and Olsen is even more talented. Cutler and Olsen have been hanging out quite a bit this offseason, so they already have a head start working on a bond together. Olsen already posted a TE1 season last year with shaky QB play, so the steady arm of Cutler will allow him to take the next jump. He's a great TE1 target.

7) Chris Cooley
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Despite the awful offense that surrounded him in the 2nd half of the season, Cooley managed to post a career high in receptions and yardage, but completely irritated owners with only 1 TD. Expect a regression towards the mean with a decrease in receptions and yardage this season, but an increase in TDs. Cooley is as steady as they come and he's being drafted just about right.

8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 89.5 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: Daniels turned in a great season last year as a late pick, but was similar frustrating as Cooley that despite posting over 800 receiving yards, he only scored 2 TDs. The problem with him is that both AJ and Walters are such great red zone targets, so he's not a go-to option near the goal line. I expect a couple more TDs from him this year, but he's being drafted just about right.

9) John Carlson
ADP: 99.8 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh

Overview: Carlson posted a pretty impressive rookie TE campaign of 627 yards and 5 TDs. He looked like the best receiving target on the team for much of the year and finally gave Seattle the receiving presence at the TE position that they have been looking for. The problem is the uncertain offense that Jim Mora Jr. will run, and whether or not it'll include Carlson as much as Holmgren's did. Given the uncertain role and the increased WR talent around him, Carlson might struggle to top his 2008 numbers, so I would look somewhere else for your TE1.

10) Zach Miller
ADP: 116.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Darius Heyward-Bey.

Overview: There aren't too many TE's that post almost 800 yards, but then get drafted 10th overall last year. The weak offense held him to 1 TD, but that's a bit fluky. Miller should be able to join the middle tiered TEs this year with a few more scores, and given what he accomplished last season in a horrible passing game, there's room for upside here. Think Chris Cooley.

11) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 123.9 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued

What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.

Overview: After an offseason trade upgrade Shockey's surrounding offense, he got hurt again and never fully acclimated himself into the Saints offense. Now given a full offseason in his new surroundings, this is a put up or shut up year for Shockey. He couldn't ask for a better passing attack to be a part of, and he's coming at a large discount this year. If you're into waiting for a TE, Shockey is a perfect selection this year.

12) Dustin Keller
ADP: 124.9 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2009: New QB Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens.

Overview: Keller had a real nice stretch from weeks 10-13, catching at least 6 passes each week, but that was sandwiched around mostly uneventful weeks as well. Keller was as much of a slot receiver as a TE given his inability to block successfully, and given the Jets didn't upgrade their WRs much at all, expect him to hold onto that same role and improve in 2009. His numbers should go up a bit, but with either a rookie or an uninspiring veteran taking over the offense, his upside is only so high. He's a decent end-game TE1.


Other TEs To Keep An Eye On:

Tony Scheffler - A season after posting a solid season despite missing 4 games due to injury, Scheffler isn't even drafted as a TE1 this season. This is for good reason because the Broncos are moving to a less TE-friendly offense as NE has never featured one, but Scheffler is a talent that shouldn't be wasted. He's too risky to have as your TE1, but he's worth stashing as a TE2 to see what his new role is.

Heath Miller - Miller was again completely underused last season, and since he'll be returning to the exact same offense, it's near impossible to predict much else. The upside is if the line improves it's blocking, it'll free Miller up to run some more routes. He's worth a TE2 stash to find out.

Vernon Davis - Another disappointing season last year hit rock bottom when new coach Mike Singletary sent him to the lockers after a disagreement on the field. Martz honestly had no idea how to use him, and Davis didn't force his hand with a questionable work ethic. He's the perfect type of elite talent to stash as a TE2 to see if he finally gets it this year, and if he's used right in the new offense.

Brent Celek - SLEEPER ALERT. Celek made waves in the playoffs last season after taking over as the starting TE, and there's good reason to think that he'll continue his success. A move as high as a mid-tiered TE would not surprise, so if you want to wait really late, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Celek as a TE1. I don't view him as a fluke, but his upside is limited by the Eagles ability to spread the ball around.