2010 QB1 Value Analysis

1) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 9.4 (1st round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Rodgers, despite shoddy pass protection during the first half of the season, put together an amazing 2009 season.  The Packers ensured OTs Clifton and Tauscher would return in 2010.  They are both aging, but they are still solid pass protectors.  They drafted Brian Bulaga in the first round, and they arguably got one of the best steals in the first round as he's a young, talented pass protector himself, and he'll provide much-needed youth behind their aging bookends.  The Packers didn't alter Rodgers' support cast, although one slight concern is the dual off-season knee surgeries for Donald Driver.  The good news is that youngsters James Jones and Jordy Nelson are more than capable to replace Driver's production.  Add in the continued maturation of TE Jermichael Finley, and Rodgers has as many weapons as anyone in the league. Rodgers is going to be an explosive fantasy option, and I think he's worth considering after the top 6 RBs (CJ2K, AP, Rice, MJD, Gore, Turner) are off the board, but you really need to consider a RB like Mathews, Greene, or perhaps Charles in the 2nd round to ensure you're not too weak at RB.

2) Drew Brees

ADP: 12.2 (1st round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: There's literally nothing left to say about Drew Brees' excellent 2009 season.  In terms of his fantasy outlook for 2010, not much has changed since last season.  The Saints traded LT Jammal Brown, but they are hoping for improvement from LT Jermon Bushrod who has played plenty due to Brown's injuries.  They also drafted their LT of the future in the talented Charles Brown, although if Bushrod falters, he'll play sooner than later.  They also ditched short yardage specialist Mike Bell, but little was lost there.  Other than that, everyone comes back, and there's little reason to think Brees won't turn in another fine season.  He's worth considering along with Rodgers as the top fantasy QB after the top 6 RBs are taken, but much like Rodgers above, you need to target a solid RB in the 2nd round.

3) Peyton Manning
ADP: 23.2 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: After Anthony Gonzalez was injured, many were worried about the Colts' depth at WR behind Wayne and TE/WR hybrid Dallas Clark.  Enter Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie.  Garcon provided an after-the-catch playmaker while Collie provided a steady presence in the slot.  Gonzalez has reportedly regained his speed, so if he's healthy again, the Colts have an excellent depth "problem" at WR thanks to last year's breakout stars, and with Clark healthy again, Manning is set up for another great season.  However, with a full round separating Manning from the top two, is there really a reason to think he's that less valuable?

4) Tom Brady

ADP: 35.2 (3rd round, 11th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Many expected Brady to return to 2007 form, especially after his huge preseason, but those same many people were greatly disappointed.  Once the regular season started, Brady didn't really look right, starting with the rust of not playing in a year to the nagging injuries that bothered him the rest.  Once Wes Welker went down, it hampered him even more.  Brady still posted a solid season, but he wasn't the dominant Brady of 2007 at any point.  The offensive line remains in-tact, but the holdout of Logan Mankins could hurt slightly.  Randy Moss is starting to get to the age where WRs begin to slow down, and given he's almost solely reliant on his speed to separate, Brady's top target carries a bit of risk.  Reports have been overwhelmingly positive on Welker, but given his torn ACL came halfway through the season, he's going to need a miracle to be ready for week 1 AND be 100%.  Given he works the middle, he's a bit more reliant on cutting than outside WRs.  Julian Edelman was solid stepping in as Welker's replacement last year, but he's not as explosive.  Torry Holt has proven he can no longer separate.  The good news is the influx of young talent the Patriots added during the draft.  Taylor Price has a great size/speed combination and has an outside chance of making an impact, and both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski were highly rated pass catchers at the TE position.  Brady's weapons are very talented, and he's going to turn in a solid season.

Update: Brady is starting to be consistently taken in the late 2nd round along with Manning, and given how comfortable he looks out there, along with the production so far of their rooke TEs, he looks safe to draft.

5) Phillip Rivers
ADP: 40.7 (4th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: I completely underestimated Rivers last season, and unfortunately I might be doing it again, but this time there's logic to the madness.  Rivers is an excellent quarterback.  His offensive line is solid, but there's a slight worry that Marcus McNeill's holdout could extend into the season, which could hurt.  The holdout that is of much greater concern is Vincent Jackson.  He's already been suspended for 3 games into the season, so there's no reason for him to hurry up and get into camp.  While he's been with the same QB and in the same offense, there's going to be rust for a week or two if he waits until after his suspension to return.  Beyond Vincent Jackson, the WR corp is weak.  Malcolm Floyd never really met expectations last season, and neither Legedu Naanee nor Bust(er) Davis will make defenses fear them.  Unlike the man below, Tony Romo, there isn't a Miles Austin-type talent buried on the depth chart.  Antonio Gates is still a stud, but without Jackson stretching the field on the outside, the defenses will crowd the middle and make his life a lot tougher.  The key to this whole equation is Vincent Jackson.  If Jackson is ready for the season, Rivers has a chance at being a top 5 QB, but Jackson is guaranteed to miss 3 games, and there simply isn't enough firepower at the WR position to allow Rivers to be a stud fantasy producer.  He's being drafted to be a top 5 QB, and I don't think he will be this season.  Rivers has the highest bust potential in the top 10.

6) Tony Romo

ADP: 42.9 (4th round, 7th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Miles Austin saved Romo's fantasy season last year.  With Roy Williams continuing to underwhelm, Miles Austin stepped up with both his ability to get deep and also his elite after-the-catch skills.  Dallas released long-time LT Flozell Adams, but they are high on youngster LT Doug Free.  They also traded for OT Alex Barron for insurance, although Romo should hope that he doesn't see the starting lineup unless the Dallas coaching staff can fix his constant penalties.  The rest of the starting lineup returns, and with Felix Jones expected to take over the lead RB, Dallas is primed to pass more.  Furthermore, the Cowboys drafted, nay, stole Dez Bryant, the most talented and dynamic WR in this year's draft.  This will move Roy Williams to the slot, or perhaps even a 4th WR depending on if he can adjust to running over-the-middle routes, something Crayton might arguably be better suited for.  Jason Witten returns at TE after a bounce back season, and if the light would ever come on for Martellus Bennett, he could provide an additional field stretcher down the seam.  Romo's weapons are borderline elite, and they are primed to throw plenty.  I'd  much rather have Romo than Rivers, and I'd rather wait and grab him a round later than Brady.

7) Matt Schaub

ADP: 47.1 (4th round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Schaub finally showed to the fantasy world what he could do when he stayed healthy.  Unfortunately it takes more than one season to forget such a history, so Schaub has rightfully been drafted outside of the top 5.  His offensive line returns intact, and his top weapon in Andre Johnson is in the argument for best WR in football.  The problem is the weapons behind AJ.  Owen Daniels returns from a torn ACL, and it remains to be seen how quickly he can return to form as he's vital to dominating the middle of the field.  Promising youngster Jacoby Jones could provide another explosive option if he can be consistent this season. With a possible rotation at the RB position, Houston will remain focused on the passing game, and while healthy, Schaub should continue to be a top 10 QB.

8) Jay Cutler
ADP: 71.5 (6th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Make no doubt about it: Cutler bombed last season.  You could point to any number of things from the poor play calling, the lack of offensive weapons and how to use them, his cracking under the pressure of "saving" an offense, his poor decision making, the poor protection, etc.  Forget every bit of that.  Enter Mike Martz.  He made borderline stud fantasy QB1s out of Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Marc Bulger in STL, he brought respectability to SF's passing game, and he gave life to Jon Kitna in DET before injuries got to him at the end of the year.  Jay Cutler is the most physically talented out of that entire group, and he has loved working with Martz so far.  Cutler is the perfect fit for Martz's offense with his cannon arm for those patented deep ins/outs.  His offensive line is a bit of a concern, but the replacement of the over-the-hill Orlando Pace with Chris Williams will upgrade the pass protection.  They also signed Manumaleuna to add another blocker from the TE position.  The Bears lack a true top WR, but the WRs they do have in Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu, and Johnny Knox are a perfect fit as they are all quick WRs that get in and out of their breaks in a hurry.  Martz has never favored big playmakers and has opted for shorter, quicker WRs to run his offense with.  Combine that with two running backs that can catch the pass, plus however Martz may want to use Greg Olsen, and Cutler has a solid supporting cast.  Cutler does not come without risk, but he should return to fantasy prominence this season.  Cutler is one of my favorite top 12 QBs this season.

9) Matt Ryan
ADP: 78.7 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Matt Ryan didn't quite make that second year leap that many were expecting.  His numbers were down across the boards with a few more TDs mixed in before a toe injury limited him and then shut him down for a few weeks before a reasonable finish.  Matt Ryan should take a true step forward this year, but he's going to need Harry Douglas to step up as downfield playmaker if he's going to make that step a big one.  His line is solid, he has a good running game to support him, and both Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are elite options at their respective positions.  Michael Jenkins will probably continue to start as his run blocking is excellent at the WR position, but Harry Douglas' speed should see the field more often, especially on passing downs.  I like Ryan to finish among the QB1s, but I think the questionable 2nd WR situation will determine exactly how high he can go.  Ryan is a solid QB pick in the 7th round, and he has further upside.

10) Kevin Kolb

ADP: 79.9 (7th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Kolb is my other favorite top 12 QB this season.  Kolb was huge in weeks 2 and 3 when McNabb was out, finally showing fantasy owners the promise the Eagles saw when they drafted him.  McNabb was traded, to a division rival nonetheless, to clear room for Kolb to be the unquestioned starter.  The offensive line remains a work in progress as Jason Peters has failed to recapture the form that made him on the league's best young LTs.  Shaun Andrews, one of the league's best young guards, has been released after a couple lost seasons due to mental issues.  Stacy Andrews has kicked inside after a lost season coming off of a torn ACL.  Winston Justice was abused at LT, so hopefully the move to RT can help rejuvenate his career.  Nick Cole is a solid center, but Jamaal Jackson is a Pro-Bowl talent also coming off of a torn ACL.  There is certainly the talent to be a dominant front 5, but there's a lot of work to be done here.  The Eagles' weapons are young and excellent.  DeSean Jackson is one of the most explosive WRs in the league, Jeremy Maclin showed very good promise once taking the starting job last year, Jason Avant is a solid slot WR, and Brent Celek emerged as a real threat at TE.  With no true power RB, the Eagles will remain a pass-first offense complemented by Lesean McCoy's solid receiving skills.  The biggest problem here is that Vick looks like a dangerous weapon again, and he will be involved in the red zone offense.  Kolb has a high ceiling, but there's some risk here.  His upside is Aaron Rodgers' first season, but with Vick stealing some of the TDs.

11) Eli Manning
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Eli, despite a toe injury that set him back a bit in the middle of the season, set career highs in QB rating, completion percentage, yardage, and TDs last season.  This was directly correlated to the improved weaponry around him.  Steve Smith exploded onto the scene, although he played a bit over his head to start the season.  Mario Manningham, albeit inconsistent, provided a solid deep threat.  Hakeem Nicks, the future #1 WR of this team, finally took over down the stretch and proved to be a force.  With another a year of experience between the three of them, all three should improve while both Nicks and Manningham should show more consistency.  The offensive line should be solid.  With the slight decline of Brandon Jacobs and the maturation of Eli manning, this team has transitioned from a run-first attack into a more balanced offense, and that should allow Manning slight room for growth.  I don't think he'll be able to boom into the top five, but if his WRs grow, he can improve upon last season's output and finish in the top 10.

12) Brett Favre

ADP: 92.5 (8th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Nothing else needs to be said about Brett Favre's career season in 2009.  What needs to be examined, however is his 2010 potential.  His ADP shows smart fantasy owners as he's not being drafted to reproduce his amazing 2009 season.  His surrounding cast remains just about the same, although Adrian Peterson will take over true every-down RB status as Chester Taylor has left for Chicago.  There shouldn't be much of a drop-off, if any, with that change.  The story to keep an eye on is Sidney Rice's hip.  Rice has barely done anything the entire offseason, and he's still not 100% yet.  If Rice isn't 100%, Favre's fantasy value isn't qutie as bright.  I know Favre's legacy of playing hurt and all that, but with a 40 year old QB, you have to worry about durability no matter what he has accomplished to this point.  There's a few red flags here, and I'd pass on him as a true QB1.  I'd feel a lot better pairing him with someone like Cutler or Kolb to mitigate the risk of Cutler or Kolb's inexperience of playing a full season.  There isn't nearly as much upside as there was last season.

QB1 Thoughts: As you can see, there's quite a bit of depth here.  I don't think there's as much separation between the QB tiers, however you'd like to draw them up, as there has been in the past.  Given that depth and lack of separation, I'd far prefer to wait on a QB and draft someone like Cutler, Ryan, or Kolb than use one of my first 4 picks on the position.