2010 RB3 Value Analysis

25) Brandon Jacobs

ADP: 51.8 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Jacobs had a disastrous 2010 season , but he revealed afterward that much like Forte, he dealt with a sprained knee most of the season, which explains why he wasn't nearly as effective.  The other problem was the Giants offensive line as they weren't blowing holes open like they had been in previous seasons.  Jacobs, obviously not a fleet-footed back, needs holes to get going through so he can use his size and power to break tackles.  The Giants are working to replace guard Rich Seubert who graded out as one of the worst run blocking guards in the NFL last season.  The maturation of Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham should give them a more potent passing attack, and that will increase the TD potential.  Ahmad Bradshaw will return as a committee RB, although he's also coming off his own surgeries.  I think Jacobs will bounce back and show more burst this season, and he'll be the goal line back, so he's going to score TDs.  However, it's not hard to imagine that Ahmad Bradshaw will see more touches as he will dominate passing down work.  I'd much rather draft Bradshaw later on as I think he provides more value.  Jacobs is a solid choice as a later RB2, but I don't see a lot of upside here.


Update: Bradshaw has sniped the starting role, but Jacobs will still see his touches.  His TD total should help keep his value afloat, but he's nothing more than a RB3.  He still doesn't look as explosive as he did prior to last season.

26) Ben Tate

ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Drafted in the 2nd round, Tate was a popular sleeper as a non-big name RB going to an explosive offense without a starting RB.  Thanks to an injury that made him miss most of the summer, Tate has fallen behind Arian Foster on the pecking order, and Steve Slaton is slated to be the 3rd down RB.  Foster is expected to open the season as the starter, and if he runs well, the best Tate could hope for is a timeshare in 2010.  Houston's offensive line is solid, and they project to be one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.  Tate certainly has the talent to eventually take the job, so he's a nice candidate to stash, but not at this price.  I expect Tate's ADP to start dropping closer to peak drafting season.


Update: Tate has broken his ankle and is out for the season.  I think Arian Foster is a good choice instead in the 5th round, although it remains to be seen how high he'll be drafted moving forward.

27) C.J. Spiller
ADP: 59.9 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: There is no question that Spiller was one of the most exciting RBs in the draft this season, but Buffalo continues its head-scratching decision making when they already have Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch at RB.  Their offensive line is below average, they have no proven quarterback, and Lee Evans is the only receive defenses care about.  Fred Jackson will start, Lynch will command touches if he's still on the team, and Spiller will be used creatively, but probably won't earn anything more than RB3 value this season.  If Marshawn Lynch is traded sometime before the season starts, Spiller would be worth speculating on as a RB3, but not with all 3 RBs on the roster.  There aren't enough touches to go around, and Buffalo projects to have one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season unless Brian Brohm magically saves the offense.  We all know Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick won't.  There's absolutely no reason Spiller should be getting drafted over a round ahead of Fred Jackson, the actual starter.


Update: The Bills backfield is an injured mess currently, and Spiller is the only healthy option.  He is a very explosive option, and he has a big chance the next couple weeks to carve out a big role for himself while Jackson and Lynch are hurt.  Jackson will almost definitely return as the lead back, but Spiller could vault himself into a 1B type situation in this backfield.  It's hard to imagine Lynch proving to be much of a threat as a healthy Jackson and Spiller are both more talented.  This couldn't have worked out any better for Spiller.  He's not a threat for TDs as he's not the goal line back, and he will be playing on a bad offense, so I can't recommend him as anything more than a RB3 with limited upside despite exciting skills.

28) Jerome Harrison

ADP: 62.5 (6th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Jerome Harrison was treated rather unfairly last season.  He toiled away on the bench most of the season while Jamal Lewis ineffectively plodded his way around the football field.  On the rare chances he got, highlighted by the last 3 games of the season, he was very impressive, albeit with a ridiculous workload.  Unfortunately for Harrison, James Davis, one of last season's preseason RB darlings, returns from injury.  They also drafted rookie Montario Hardesty whom they are very high on, and it seems as though Hardesty is the favorite to start as it stands right now.  This is a camp battle worth watching as Cleveland does have a solid offensive line, but with Delhomme behind center and nothing at the WR position, Cleveland's offense looks like a wasteland.


Update: With the season-ending injury to Montario Hardesty, Harrison is the every-down RB for the Browns.  He's now a good RB3 with RB2 upside.

29) Marion Barber
ADP: 63.8 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Barber started out the 2009 season as the starter, but a number of injuries derailed his season, and by the end of the year he looked like a shell of his former self.  The Cowboys return their solid offensive line, and they will have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL.  If Barber can regain some explosiveness, he'll get the goal line carries, some passing down work, and he'll move back to his familiar closer role.  That will get him close to RB2 value, so he's a solid pick as a RB3.  Keep a close eye on him to see if he looks like the old Barber in the preseason and draft accordingly.


Update: Barber has enjoyed a great preseason and has re-claimed the starting role.  He's going to rotate a lot with Jones, but you're looking at a guy who has the skills to return to a borderline RB1 role if he is as successful in the goal line/closer role as he was a couple seasons ago.  He's a great RB3.

30) Ricky Williams

ADP: 68.6 (6th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Ricky Williams had a dream season in 2009 at the age of 32.  He has much fresher legs than most 32 year olds thanks to his time away from football, but that doesn't make his season any less amazing.  He looked fast, created big plays as second fiddle to Ronnie Brown, and then was a great workhorse for Miami when Ronnie Brown went down.  Ricky's role completely depends on the health of Ronnie Brown.  If Brown is healthy, he'll go back to the same role he had last season prior to Brown's injury.  If Brown is not healthy, Ricky will start again, although at 33, you have to think that impressive 3rd stringer Lex Hilliard will see more carries than he did down the stretch last season.  Ricky is at the age where he could completely fall of the cliff, and the heavy workload he endured at the end of last season has me seriously concerned.  I'd opt for other younger options.

31) Fred Jackson

ADP: 75.9 (7th round, 4th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Like I mentioned with Spiller above, Buffalo's offense is a complete mess.  That being said, Fred Jackson will be the starter, and he had a pretty good season last year.  He's an all-around back, although he obviously lacks the explosion that C.J. Spiller has.  I'd feel better about this pick if Marshawn Lynch is traded, but if not, Jackson is competing for limited touches with 2 other guys on a bad offense.  I'd opt for guys with better opportunities if Lynch is still around., but Jackson would be a very good RB4.


Update: Fred Jackson has suffered a fractured hand, and he'll be out for a while, possibly missing a few regular season games.  Jackson should return as the lead back when he returns, but C.J. Spiller has a chance to carve out a big role while Jackson and Lynch are out.  Jackson stands the most to lose during his absence. Make sure he's not more than your RB4, although he's occasionally falling out of drafts completely.  He makes for a good RB4 and a great RB5.

32) Darren McFadden
ADP: 77.2 (7th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: McFadden was a bust again last season, when he was healthy, although his situation on the NFL's worst offense with the NFL's worst QB certainly didn't help.  The Raiders completely overhauled the QB position by admitting their mistake with Jamarcus Russell and cutting him, then trading for Jason Campbell.  Campbell will immediately upgrade the entire offense, and he's going to help the running game by providing a solid passing attack.  The Raiders actually have some promise along the offensive line as well, so the blocking should be solid.  The biggest problem here is McFadden versus Bush and how the timeshare will unfold.  I think McFadden will ultimately end up as a 3rd down and change-of-pace RB rather than a workhorse or an early down runner, but that's just logical thinking based on the skill set of both guys.  McFadden has more promise now with a new QB, but I have a feeling Bush will win the carries battle.  He's a decent RB3, but based on draft position, I'd much rather wait a bit and take Bush instead at the discounted price.


Update: Bush has suffered a thumb injury and could be out a month or more.  McFadden is the lone dog in the backfield and makes for a great RB3 with upside if he can learn to break some tackles.

33) Reggie Bush
ADP: 82.5 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: I think Reggie Bush has proven exactly what his is at the NFL, which is a solid role player.  Bush was never considered for a lot of carries last year after a couple years of proving he isn't an every-down NFL RB, and nothing will change that for this season.  He's simply too fragile.  Bush will continue to see the field for some passing downs, some carries, and some trick plays, but that's it.  Why he's still being drafted as a RB3 is beyond me.  Even if Pierre Thomas went down, the Saints would either use Lynell Hamilton or go sign someone to take most of the early down carries.  He's still being overvalued on "potential" and name value.

34) Ahmad Bradshaw

ADP: 84.5 (7th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Bradshaw looked like the best RB on the Giants last season until two foot fractures completely slowed him down, but he still fought through that and turned in a quality season as the 1B to Jacobs.  He figures to return to his familiar role as a change-of-pace and 3rd down RB while Jacobs does most of the heavy lifting.  He's an explosive RB, but his inconsistent carries from week to week combined with the unlikelihood that he'd take over if Jacobs got hurt lessens his upside, but he's a solid RB3.

Update: Bradshaw is starting to emerge as a threat to be the 1A in this committee.  Jacobs is obviously going to play a big role as well, and he's going to handle goal line duties, but Bradshaw will see plenty of carries and dominate passing down work.  Bradshaw is much more explosive, and he makes things more things happen with less in front of him.  He's a great RB3.

35) Montario Hardesty
ADP: 85.7 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Cleveland's offense is a mess, but someone has to carry the ball for them.  Hardesty and Harrison are in a battle to be the starting RB, and Hardesty has a leg up after Harrison missed the summer disputing his contract.  Hardesty is better built for early down duties, and I think he'll end up winning this battle.  If you're going to gamble on a Cleveland RB, given the skill set between Hardesty and Harrison, I'd rather wait two rounds and take a shot with Hardesty.


Update: Hardesty tore his ACL and is out for the season.

36) Michael Bush

ADP: 86.3 (8th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: I laid out the improvements to Oakland's offense above with McFadden, and I'm here to sing Bush's praises again.  Bush is a big back, but yet he has agility and also underrated pass catching ability.  Fargas is finally gone.  McFadden isn't going anywhere, but like I also mentioned above, I think Bush is better suited for early down work.  If he does win that position on the offense, I think he can be a RB2.  Oakland will move the ball better this year with Campbell behind center, and Bush is undoubtedly better suited for goal line work, so he'll be scoring the TDs.  Bush is someone to target as a backup RB.


Update: Bush suffered a thumb injury and is out for a month, possibly more.  He's a solid RB5 to stash on your bench as he'll have a sizeable role when he returns, but it's hard to roster someone like Bush as more than that when he's going to miss that much time.

RB3 Thoughts: As you can see, I'm not big on the RB3s this season.  I refuse to take change-of-pace backups as my 3rd RB as you don't win titles doing that.  I want a guy that either has a legit chance of being the starter in week 1, or I want a change-of-pace backup that would take over should an injury strike.  I love Jacobs' ability to bounce back this season, I think Barber can provide value, and I think both Hardesty and Bush can win starting, early down roles on their teams.  1 or 2 of these guys will probably break out, so its important to draft well here.