2010 RB1 Value Analysis

1) Chris Johnson

ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Chris Johnson was a RB with upside last year.  Everyone saw what he could do his first season, and he accomplished that without goal line carries.  He was even better in 2009, and then he took goal line carries from LenDale White.  The result was a historic 2,509 yards from scrimmage.  The Titans offense returns in tact, boasting an excellent offensive line, and a rejuvenated Vince Young who has regained his confidence.  Better yet, LenDale was cut, so Johnson has zero competition for goal line carries and will be the true, every-down RB from start to finish.  Given he rushed for 2,000 yards last season, regression has to be expected, but he should score a few more TDs this season with his new goal line back role.  358 carries is also a ton of work, but like LT, I think CJ2K is a special RB who has the ability to use his body lean to avoid big hits.  CJ2K is primed for another big season.

2) Adrian Peterson

ADP: 1.9 (1st round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Adrian Peterson was a slight disappointment in 2009 from the perspective that his YPC dropped again and he only had 3 100 yard games, but he scored a career high 18 TDs to help offset all of that, and he also doubled his reception total.  The offensive line is a slight concern as they did not open up the same holes last season, but the talent is there for them to improve.  Brett Favre will return and provide a solid passing game, but the honeymoon stage is hopefully over, and I think Peterson will regain the centerpiece status of this offense.  I think Peterson is right with CJ2K in the discussion for top overall RB, and I would personally draft him #1 overall.

3) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.1 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: MJD certainly showed that he could handle the feature back responsibilities with Fred Taylor's departure.  He posted a career high in both rushing yardage and total TDs while maintaining plenty of value in the passing game.  Jacksonville's young OTs will both have another year of experience, so MJD will continue to have a solid line in front of him.  He is the best offensive player by far and the focal point of the Jacksonville offensive attack, and he's one of the increasingly rare every-down RBs.  He's durable.  The problem is his surrounding offense.  David Garrard and his mostly unimpressive receivers simply won't move the ball, stay on the field, and score TDs as much as the RBs being drafted around him.  In the past 11 years, only 7 out of the top 55 RBs, which are comprised of the top 5 RBs each season, played on losing teams.  Of course, one of the exceptions to that is indeed MJD, as he finished 3rd among fantasy RBs last season on a 7-9 Jacksonville team.  However, as we saw with Calvin Johnson last season, that is not a recipe for continued success.  Garrard has gotten worse the past two seasons, and the Jaguars don't have much at WR outside of a fragile Mike Sims-Walker.  There's at least one bust in the top 5 each season, and I think due to his surrounding offensive situation, MJD is the biggest risk in the top 5 this season.

4) Ray Rice

ADP: 4.0 (1st round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Ray Rice exploded onto the scene in 2009 as one of NFL's best young RBs.  He is every bit as talented as the RBs above him as he can do anything at the RB position.  Baltimore returns a good offensive line, and they made a switch that makes a lot of sense.  Michael Oher was moved to his familiar blind-side position at LT where his agility and pass protection are strengths, and Jared Gaither was switched over to the right side where his big, mauling presence is better utilized in the running game.  The addition of Boldin and Stallworth along with Flacco's maturation should make this offense even more potent.  There is one thing holding Rice back, and those are the goal line carries as McGahee is slated to handle those duties again.  There is a chance that Rice is put into the same situation as CJ2K last season where he is given the opportunity to win those in the 2nd half of the year, but without those additional TD chances, he has to be ranked behind the top 2.  Rice does have some additional upside if he can take that goal line back role.

5) Frank Gore
ADP: 5.2 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Gore had another excellent season in 2009, posting a great YPC and double digit TDs despite missing essentially 3 games with an ankle injury.  SF added 2 big run blockers via the draft with OG Mike Iupati and OT Anthony Davis, so if they win starting jobs coming out of training camp, the run blocking up front should be upgraded from last year.  Alex Smith proved capable last season.  Michael Crabtree looked like he didn't miss any time once he finally signed as he made an immediate impact.  Vernon Davis developed into the most dominant TE in football.  Josh Morgan is an underrated asset, especially in run blocking, opposite Crabtree.  Jason Hill is a reliable slot receiver, and Ted Ginn Jr. will help both field position via returns and also as a situational deep threat.  Singletary has also stated that he wants to abandon the spread formations that SF often lined up in last season and move back to power running formations to feature Frank Gore more.  All in all this sets up nicely for Gore this season, especially if the rookie offensive linemen are ready from week 1, as he is surrounded by the best supporting cast of his career.  The situation is right to see a career year from Gore this year.

Update: The 49ers signed Brian Westbrook today.  DO NOT PANIC.  Thanks to Coffee's sudden retirement, the 49ers wanted a solid backup RB.  Anthony Dixon looked good in his first preseason game, but the 49ers have given uneven marks to him, especially in the passing game.  Westbrook will spell Gore and is obviously a slightly bigger threat for touches than Glen Coffee was, but Westbrook is nothing more than a backup.  If Gore slips out of the top 5 in your draft thanks to this, pounce.  This is more of an indictment on how the 49ers view Dixon during his rookie season than anything else.

6) Michael Turner

ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Michael Turner was on my bust list for last season given the increasingly popular Curse of 370, and unfortunately for those who drafted him, he lived up to that end of the bargain.  This wasn't your typical injury, however, as he suffered a high ankle sprain that the coaching staff had him return too early from twice, ruining his season.  He is 100% coming into camp, and he is said to be in excellent shape.  Atlanta returns their solid offensive line, and Matt Ryan projects to take another step forward this season, so their offense should be potent again.  The one glaring hole in Turner's game is receptions as his career high is...6.  He's more prone to dud games when Atlanta gets down and he comes off of the field.  Atlanta has stated that they want to cut back on his carries, but I think this will happen naturally as Atlanta wants to spread the field and run more no-huddle offensive looks this season.  Turner will still be a focal point on offense, and he'll score plenty of TDs, but you have to hold him out of the top 5, especially in PPR leagues, because he won't catch passes.  He should be the 6th pick in all non-2 QB drafts.

7) Steven Jackson

ADP: 8.4 (1st round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: It pains me to be down on Steven Jackson as I absolutely love him as a player, and it's a true shame that a good guy like this has spent his peak years on consistently horrible teams.  Sam Bradford gives them hope at the QB position, but he's just a rookie.  The offensive line didn't improve much last season, and there's little reason to believe it will get a whole lot better this year.  Laurent Robinson, Donnie Avery, and Mardy Gilyard do give this team it's best WR group since Bruce and Holt retired, so that's a plus.  The worst news is that Jackson had back surgery this offseason, and back injuries are among the most unpredictable injuries in football.  Crazily enough, despite his consistently high ADPs through the years, SJax has also consistently underperformed.  He's the last true every-down RB left in the draft at this point, but with his injury history combined with this offseason surgery, I'd rather spend my first round pick on someone else.

Update: Jackson has looked like his usual excellent self in the preseason, and he should be going off the boards in the back half of the first round.  His health is still a big risk over the course of a 16 game season, but don't downgrade him too much.  Bradford cannot be any worse than the QB play the Rams got last season, so while he'll be inconsistent as most rookies, he's going to allow Jackson to score more than the 4 TDs he scored last season.

8) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 10.4 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Speaking of every-down RBs, Mendenhall might just emerge as one.  After shaping up as a bust and unable to beat out a declining Willie Parker, Mendenhall got one last chance after Parker's injury with a start in week 4, and he took over from that point forward.  Mendenhall finally showed the all-around talent that made him a first round pick.  The Steelers offensive line warrants some concern, especially at the OT position.  His backfield situation is a bit muddier than those above him as Mewelde Moore is still a solid option on passing downs, and rookie Jonathan Dwyer is a punishing runner who could battle for redzone duties.  With Big Ben out for the first month, the Steelers will rely heavily on the ground game, so Mendenhall is set up for a big start in terms of workload.  His fantasy value is completely in the hands of the coaching staff based on how they use him, so he's a bit risky until that shakes out.  Keep a very close eye on the battle for goal line carries in the preseason.

Update: As frustrating as it is, there's still no clarity to the Steelers' plans for the goal line.  I think Mendenhall is worth a late first round pick as a feature RB, but there's still a risk that he won't get consistent work at the goal line.  Assume he will for now, but don't be shocked if they use a committee of some sort.

9) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 13.4 (2nd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Life is not fair when you're a Carolina Panthers RB.  They boast the most talented RB duo in recent memory, both in their primes, but their fantasy value is cancelled out because they split carries.  DeAngelo was again the lead back last season prior to his ankle injury that prematurely ended his season, and unfortunately for his fantasy value, that allowed Jonathan Stewart to prove how good his is as the unquestioned starter.  This season, I don't think it'll be Williams' 1A to Stewart's 1B as much as it'll be a true timeshare, and Stewart is a monster at the goal line.  Carolina returns its injured tackles to form an impressive offensive line, so run blocking will not be an issue.  Matt Moore will do more to keep the the offense on the field compared to Jake Delhomme who was more proficient at forcing them off of it, so the QB change is an upgrade.  Williams had offseason ankle surgery, but he'll be 100% heading into the season.  It's hard to say exactly how the carries will be split up, but it stands to reason that Williams will get less this season.  Stewart is better built for the goal line, so there's a chance that he'll be featured more in that role.  Given the 2 rounds of ADP difference, I'd much rather draft Stewart than Williams this season, and I'd also rather draft...

10) Shonn Greene

ADP: 14.3 (2nd round, 2nd pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Greene exploded onto the scene in the playoffs for the Jets as he posted 2 straight dominant performances before the game against Indy, and a minor injury, forced a decreased workload.  I expect his ADP to rise a bit as I'll be surprised if he actually gets out of many first rounds, although I guess people are worried about LaDainian Tomlinson.  The Jets return their fearsome offensive line, and they even made an upgrade drafting OG Vladimir Ducasse to replace the ineffective Alan Faneca.  They also traded for Santonio Holmes, giving Mark Sanchez another weapon once Holmes returns from his 4 game suspension.  They did replace Thomas Jones with LT, but anyone who watched LT last season saw his demise.  He can still be an effective backup, but Tomlinson no longer has explosion.  LT will almost certainly at least help out on 3rd downs, but there's an outside chance the coaching staff could prefer him at the goal line.  Preseason should help answer this question.  LT might have a bigger role than he should have early on, but Greene is undoubtedly the superior talent and will win out in the end.  I think Michael Turner is an excellent comparison for Greene, although Turner is probably a bit more explosive.  I'd happily take Greene next after Turner is off the board, but you have to be prepared for Tomlinson to be slightly annoying in the early going.

Update: Tomlinson has looked good in the preseason so far, and while this presents a slight problem, don't put too much stock into the preseason.  The Jets will run a lot, and Greene will get most of the carries including most of the goal line work.  Greene is an excellent RB1 that you can sometimes land in the middle of the 2nd round.

11) Ryan Mathews
ADP: 16.5 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: I'm struggling a bit with how exactly to rank Mathews.  Mathews is a great RB talent that comes from a pro-style offense at Fresno State, so he should adapt quickly to SD's offense.  He also has little competition for early-down carries as it was clear that SD did not trust Sproles in that role.  SD's offensive line is decent but nothing to write home about.  They have had a great passing attack the last couple seasons, but with Vincent Jackson's suspension and the lack of depth behind him, SD would be best suited to feature the running game while Jackson is out.  Best of all, he will get the goal line carries as it stands right now.  As long as Rivers is behind center, defenses will be forced to respect the pass, so there will be running lanes.  Darren Sproles is anchored into the 3rd down back role, and they will give him carries as well.  I think a solid baseline for his numbers is Knowshon Moreno's 2009 season, except with a better YPC (Moreno was at 3.8) and slightly less receptions (Moreno had 28).  Buckhalter held a similar role to what Sproles will likely perform this year.  I'd rather have him as a RB2, but he should flirt with borderline RB1 numbers, and he has upside.  The problem is that as a rookie RB, there's a strong chance he will fade down the stretch as many rookie RBs have done, so I'd be very hesitant to take him as my #1 RB.

Update: Mike Tolbert is running with the 1st team goal line offense.  This isn't good news for Mathews' fantasy value.  I think Mathews will turn in a solid season, but his touches are going to be somewhat limited, and if he's not getting the goal line work, then his upside is obviously limited.  I wouldn't overreact too much, but I'd shy away from reaching for him in the 1st round like some people have been doing.  He's an excellent pick in the 2nd round once you have a more established fantasy player first.

12) Cedric Benson

ADP: 18.5 (2nd round, 6th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Benson certainly came out of nowhere last season to be an elite RB1 until his heavy workload caught up to him and a hip injury stalled him a bit between weeks 10-12.  The good news is that they will return their solid offensive line, and that they upgraded their passing game weapons with the additions of Antonio Bryant, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham.  If Palmer's arm is normal, they will pass more, and Benson will suffer as he does not contribute much in the passing game.  Benson's RB1 value was derived from an unsustainable heavy workload last year, and I highly doubt Cincinnati will do that again in 2010.  Benson should be a solid RB2 as he has little competition for early down carries, but drafting him to be your RB1 will probably lead to disappointment.

Update: Benson has looked very good in the preseason, and Carson Palmer doesn't look like he's going to return to QB1 status thanks to the state of his arm.  Benson is still too risk to rely on to be your RB1, but I think taking him in the back half of the 2nd round as a solid RB2 makes sense.  Bernard Scott has also been very impressive.

RB1 Thoughts: It varies from season to season, but the draft this season certainly appears to favor those picking in the top half of the draft.  This can be attributed to the fact less and less teams employ an every-down RB.  However, Mendenhall, Greene, and Mathews gives those picking late in the first round some talented, but risky options to choose from.  Unlike most seasons, I don't see a glaring reason why someone in the top 6 picks this year should bust, and that worries me because there's always someone (Forte in 2009) who somewhat illogically busts.  My biggest concern is with MJD because he is on the worst offense of the top 6 RBs.  There's no real supporting logic as to why he would bust, but offensive situation, while not directly correlated, means a lot to fantasy production.