2010 RB4 Value Analysis

37) Cadillac Williams

ADP: 89.4 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Caddy was an awesome story last season.  After multiple serious knee surgeries that have ruined his career, Caddy came back and performed admirably well as the starter last season, despite the acquisition of free agent Derrick Ward.  Tampa Bay's offensive line is decent, Josh Freeman is a good young QB, and they added a lot of talent to the WR position by drafting rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams.  The problem is that while Williams ran fairly well last season, he lost his explosion and wasn't too much of a fantasy factor.  Add in the huge injury risk, and there are better choices out there.

38) Thomas Jones

ADP: 89.6 (8th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Thomas Jones put together another huge season last year for fantasy purposes, but towards the second half of the season, he was far more reliant on his offensive line as he broke/eluded far less tackles than he had in previous seasons before a knee injury severely hampered him in the playoffs.  He's in amazing shape for being 32 years old, but he's very old in RB years, and he is at risk of falling off the cliff.  He'll hold some value behind Jamaal Charles as the likely short yardage/goal line back and backup, but he just doesn't have enough left anymore to truly challenge Charles for a starting job.  He's a nice choice for Charles owners, but most others will want to steer clear.

39) Steve Slaton
ADP: 93.9 (8th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Slaton got off to a terrible start in 2009 by constantly fumbling, he lost his job, and then a neck injury shut him down in the first half of the season shut him down for the rest.  Needless to say, he didn't live up to expectations.  Slaton will supposedly be 100% in time for week 1, but with both Arian Foster and Ben Tate now ahead of him for early down work, Slaton is merely a 3rd down/change-of-pace RB these days, so I'd much rather invest a RB4 pick into someone who could at least start should an injury happen ahead of him.  Slaton would need 2, and even then Houston would probably rather acquire someone to take the early down role.

Update: Ben Tate's season-ending injury has vaulted Arian Foster into the starting job, and Slaton failed to capitalize by fumbling a goal line carry in the first preseason game.  Slaton will be a solid 3rd down and change-of-pace back, but he lacks upside as someone who just isn't a starting NFL RB.

40) Donald Brown

ADP: 94.6 (8th round, 10th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Some expected Brown to take the starting job at some point last season, but while a shoulder injury held him back, Addai played too well in his role to lose his job.  Brown did show far more explosion and the ability to hit big plays than Addai ever has.  Addai is in a contract year, and the Colts will want to see what they have in Brown with Addai possibly leaving after the season.  Addai probably isn't going to lose his job barring injury, but Brown will definitely have a bigger role this season, and he has the upside for more.  Brown is an ideal RB4 pick with the ability to have lots of fantasy value later in the season if things go right.

41) Clinton Portis
ADP: 96.5 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: I'm probably in the minority, but I think Clinton Portis can somewhat bounce back this season.  This greatly hinges on how he looks in the preseason, however.  If he looks slow and, well, old, then all bets are off and he'll probably bust again.  Portis is only 29, but he has a LOT of carries on his legs already.  However, if he looks fresh this fall, given he's only battling the even more over-the-hill Larry Johnson and Willie Parker, maybe new Redskins (and Portis' old) coach Mike Shanahan can squeeze another productive year out of him.  Portis has dropped some weight and improved his conditioning, so hopefully that will allow him to regain some explosiveness.  The Skins line is a question mark, but Shanahan will get as much out of them as he can.  McNabb is a big upgrade at QB and will help move the ball.  Portis is one veteran, thanks to his situation, that I wouldn't have a problem taking a chance on.

Update: Portis is no longer undervalued.  His running in the preseason has proven that he lacks explosiveness, and while he'll start for Washington, he just isn't going to be a very exciting fantasy property.  He's a decent RB4 for depth, but nothing more.

42) Laurence Maroney

ADP: 112.8 (10th round, 5th pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: Maroney was finally given a chance to be the workhorse given the various injuries to NE's ancient RBs (Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor), and he performed pretty well, posting solid RB2 numbers along the way thanks to consistent scoring chances.  However, after his 4th lost fumble in a 7 game span, he was benched and barely saw the field after that.  Maroney is battling both Morris and Taylor once again for carries, and if he can simply hang onto the ball, he'll win that job and provide excellent fantasy value.  If he continues to put the ball on the ground, he'll find himself on the bench again.  Maroney is in his contract year, so he'll be plenty motivated to fix the ball security issues that plagued him last season.  He's well worth the investment as a RB4.

Update: Maroney is buried on the depth chart and isn't getting preseason reps.  He's a name to keep in mind, but he's not draftable.

43) LaDainian Tomlinson

ADP: 114.3 (10th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Tomlinson hit the wall last season.  After one of longest runs near the top of fantasy RBs ever, LT lacked explosion, and while he kept his fantasy value reasonable thanks to his TDs, his YPC plummeted, he no longer made big plays, and he wasn't nearly as valuable as a receiver.  There's little reason to think changing times will suddenly rejuvenate a RB with this many carries in his career, so expect Tomlinson to help on 3rd downs and take a clear backseat to new starter Shonn Greene.  There's a chance that Joe McKnight, if properly motivated, could take the 3rd down role and leave Tomlinson as a pure backup.  If Greene were to miss time, there would be some split between Tomlinson and McKnight, so there isn't a lot of upside even if the starter goes down.  He's a reasonable RB4, especially for Greene owners, but there's better upside elsewhere.

Update: LT has looked good, but it will take a Greene injury for him to matter in fantasy.

44) Darren Sproles
ADP: 114.7 (10th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Even with Tomlinson hitting the wall last season, the Chargers felt more comfortable continuing to use Tomlinson as a workhorse instead of the more explosive Sproles.  It's clear the Chargers do not want Sproles consistently carrying the ball, so there's no reason to think that will change this year.  Ryan Mathews is the new starter, and fullbacks Jacob Hester and Mike Tolbert would be trusted with early down carries more than Sproles will should Mathews go down.  There's simply no upside with Sproles anymore, and there's no reason to waste a bench spot on him.

45) Justin Forsett
ADP: 116.6 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have no idea what Mike Holmgren was doing, but despite Julius Jones' clear lack of talent, he continued to start and dominate carries.  The 4 times Forsett received 10+ carries, he was extremely impressive each time, but they were spread out and mostly occurred in the 2nd half of the season.  Forsett is now a part of a crowded backfield that includes the aforementioned Jones and the newly acquired Leon Washington.  Washington is coming off of a compound fracture of his leg, and he is no sure bet to regain the explosion he had prior to the injury.  Washington is an excellent football player, but when the Jets traded him and replaced him with the washed up Tomlinson and a talented-but-not-motivated Joe McKnight, you have to wonder if they know something about his recovery that we don't.  All that aside, new coach Pete Carroll always favored RB platoons at USC, and with no clear starter on the Seahawks, he'll likely employ the same philosophy.  With only the sucky Julius Jones and the uncertainty of Washington's recovery, Forsett is the favorite to lead this committee, and he is the back to own in Seattle.  He makes a solid RB3 and a great RB4, but since he isn't a feature RB, and probably wouldn't be even if injuries struck, don't reach too much.

Update: Leon Washington looks healthy again, and he's the most talented RB on this roster when he's 100%. This is going to be a committee, and with Forsett not being a goal line vulture, there's simply not a whole lot of excitement here.  I'd rather pick Washington later.

46) Chester Taylor

ADP: 117.2 (10th round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Chester Taylor put together another solid season behind Adrian Peterson, but he priced himself out of Minnesota and joins division rival Chicago.  Taylor did see his YPC drop for the 3rd straight year, and scouts were noting the start of his decline, but his receiving skill stayed steady.  It's hard to tell if the YPC was the start of his decline or because of Minnesota's offensive line struggling to open up holes for the RBs.  He'll be 31 when the season starts, but he has far less carries on his legs than most 31 year olds, and he only has one season of more than 170 carries.  He's going to be on the lesser side of a committee with Matt Forte, but he would be the unquestioned starter should something happen.  He's a solid, if no longer exciting, backup to own.  He's a great fit for Martz's offense and makes for a smart handcuff for Forte owners, but other owners should probably look elsewhere.

47) Tim Hightower
ADP: 118.0 (11th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Hightower's biggest accomplishment last season was being a thorn in the side of Beanie Wells' owners.  He did greatly improve his efficiency with the ball as his YPC improved from 2.8 to 4.2 with the same exact number of carries, but anyone watching Cardinals games last season could tell you that Beanie Wells is the far more talented runner.  There is conflicting reports on who will actually start, but Wells will lead this carry battle, leaving Hightower to 3rd downs and some situational short yardage work.  If Wells were to go down, Hightower would start, but he's been very inconsistent with those opportunities the past couple seasons.  He's a reasonable RB4, and a decent draft pick for those who take Wells, but he has little stand-alone value.

48) Willis McGahee

ADP: 138.9 (12th round, 7th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: McGahee was a nightmare to Ray Rice's owners last season.  He only received 10+ carries 4 times in weeks 1-16, but he consistently stole goal line carries.  It's hard to blame Baltimore considering how proficient McGahee was at the goal line, and the early guess is that the same thing will happen last season.  However, as we learned with LenDale White last season, there's no lock that McGahee will keep that role all season.  McGahee proved that he can still carry the rock with 16/167 with 3 TDs in week 17, so he'd still have a lot of value should something happen to Ray Rice.  He's a valuable handcuff for any owner as a RB4 with upside, but he has little stand-alone value with Ray Rice healthy.

RB4 Thoughts: We're getting into the full fledged backups here.  You want to avoid all backups that would still be in a timeshare because they are a waste of a roster spot.  There's a couple possible starters here like Maroney, Portis, and Forsett, so you should target them first.  Next up are backups that are clearly 2nd in line, and that includes Brown, Taylor and McGahee.  I'm not a fan of the other 6 guys for various reasons stated above.