2010 QB2 Value Analysis

13) Joe Flacco

ADP: 94.1 (8th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Flacco started off as a QB1, but he faded down the stretch as several nagging injuries and a simple lack of weapons hurt him.  Much like Matt Ryan, he should be expected to take a step forward this season, especially with the improved pass catching talent around him.  His offensive line is strong, so pass protection is not a concern.  Most notably, the Ravens signed Anquan Boldin to give Flacco a big, strong top WR.  They also signed Donte Stallworth.  Stallworth is a big wildcard after being suspended last season, but he has shown his trademark speed during the offseason, so he should be helpful as a deep threat, and his after-the-catch abilities have always been solid while he's been healthy.  Derrick Mason was re-signed as well, and while he's a threat to fall off the cliff at his age, he should at least provide a reliable chain-moving presence on the field.  The Ravens also added some youth behind Todd Heap in Ed Dickson who was a well rated pass-catching TE.  With Ray Rice proving to be the best pass catching RB in the league, Flacco has some great talent around him, and I think he's a solid QB1 with upside.

Update: The Ravens have signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and while he's no longer a difference maker, he provides another solid possession receiver for Flacco to use.  He's a nice addition given the injury to Stallworth and the inconsistent career of Mark Clayton.

14) Donovan McNabb

ADP: 101.6 (9th round, 5th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Much has changed with McNabb as he has moved from Philadelphia to division rival Washington.  Unfortunately for his fantasy value, this is not an upgrade, although a bit positive is that Shanahan is just as creative offensively as Andy Reid was, and Washington doesn't boast a running game to build the offense around either.  Washington's line has been revamped and could be a little shaky, much like Philly's, but they lack the explosive young weapons that Philly boasts.  Santana Moss projects to be his #1 WR, and while Moss isn't as explosive as DeSean Jackson at his current age, he should still be reliable target.  The problem are the WRs opposite Moss.  Devin Thomas undoubtedly has the physical talent, but he's very immature and hasn't been dedicated.  Malcolm Kelly is constantly battling knee injuries, but is talented in his own right when healthy.  The huge plus is at the TE position where Chris Cooley returns at 100%, and Fred Davis emerged as a force last season.  McNabb is an ideal QB2 with upside, but the uncertain weapons around him combined with McNabb's own lengthy injury history make him a risky choice to be your #1 QB with so many options this year.

15) Carson Palmer
ADP: 112.1 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: With the offense running through Cedric Benson and the defense playing great, the Bengals transitioned into a pass-second offense.  Chad Ochocinco was revived, but no one else stepped up to help share the load.  Lastly, Palmer showed decreased velocity and accuracy on his throws last year.  He was a decent QB1 during the 1st half of the season, but tanked in the 2nd half, and never threw for many yards.  Fast forward to 2010.  The Bengals have a decent offensive line, and they have greatly improved the surrounding talent.  Firstly, during free agency, they signed Antonio Bryant, who will stretch the field opposite Chad Ochocinco.  Secondly, during the draft, they added top TE talent Jermaine Gresham, who should immediately make an impact over the middle.  They also drafted Jordan Shipley, who is considered to be a great fit for the slot at the NFL level since youngsters Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson have not improved.  The biggest question here is the health of Palmer's arm.  If he can regain most of his arm strength and mostly importantly his accuracy, the upgrade of the talent around him will allow for solid fantasy production, but the injury risk is enough to keep him as strictly a QB2.

Update: Palmer's preseason did not look promising.  He showed a weaker arm than he possessed prior to his elbow issues, and this does nothing to squash the talk that he's either playing hurt or his arm simply isn't the same anymore.  I'm downgrading him as someone who's a decent QB2 with his weapons, but does not possess the talent to provide QB1 upside.

16) Matthew Stafford

ADP: 124.3 (11th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Stafford, like most rookie QBs, had an up and down season.  He certainly has confidence in his arm, but he coupled that with some poor decision making and too many interceptions.  It's hard to blame him, however, as Calvin Johnson was the only talent on his entire team.  Luckily, they worked hard to fix that.  The offensive line remains a concern as they did little to upgrade the talent, or lack there of, up front.  The signed Nate Burleson, and while he's hardly a game-breaker, he's a solid receiver who will take more attention off of Calvin Johnson than anyone else they had last season.  They also traded for TE Tony Scheffler who is expected to play a Dallas Clark-type role for the offense this season and man the slot a lot of the time.  TE Brandon Pettigrew will also return, and while he'll do more blocking as he's more polished at that than Scheffler, he's also a solid pass catcher as well.  Finally, they drafted Jahvid Best, who is a homerun-hitter at RB and is also very proficient in the passing game.  I still expect Stafford to struggle a bit as he continues to mature at the QB position, but he has enough weapons around him now that he should prove to be a reliable QB2.  He's one of my favorite QB2s.

17) Chad Henne
ADP: 127.9 (11th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Henne took over after Chad Pennington went down with another season-ending injury, and while he started slow with the dominance of the running game, he finished strong and provided optimism for 2010.  The Dolphins offensive line is excellent.  Most notably, they traded for WR Brandon Marshall, who finally gives Henne a true #1 WR.  Miami is hoping that 2nd year WR Brian Hartline steps up into the starting position opposite Marshall, and they also have solid possession WRs in Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess.  With Ronnie Brown returning from another major surgery and Ricky Williams entering his mid-30s, combined with the acquisition of Marshall and the maturation of Henne, I think you'll see Miami utilize a more balanced attack in 2010.  The passing game weapons aren't explosive enough to rocket Henne into QB1 territory, but they are enough to allow Henne to become a solid QB2.

18) Kyle Orton

ADP: 148.6 (13th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Orton started off on fire by rarely throwing an INT in the first half of the season, but regressed in the 2nd half and finished as a QB2.  Denver's biggest offseason moves involved trading both Brandon Marshall and the talented, but rarely used TE Tony Scheffler, and then drafting WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.  Thomas is the much bigger name here as some felt he was the 2nd best WR prospect in the draft behind Dez Bryant, but he's also recovering from foot surgery and is already behind in picking up the offense.  Decker is also recovering from surgery as well.  Eddie Royal's role remains unclear, although there's been talk that he'll finally be moved to the slot as opposed to being a deep router-running decoy last season.  There's undoubtedly some talent here, but how these pieces will come together and if the rookies will be ready for extensive action in game 1 remains a mystery.  Orton himself is a solid, efficient QB that fits McDaniels' system well.  He's not going to threaten QB1 value barring some unforseen event, but he's a safe QB2.

19) Vince Young

ADP: 156.6 (13th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Vince Young, mostly forgotten by this point last season, burst back onto the fantasy scene after taking over at QB for the 0-6 Titans and giving them a fighting chance to make the playoffs.  Chris Johnson undoubtedly had a lot to do with that as well, but Young's dynamic and unique QB talents played a large role.  The Titans had no turnover or major additions on their offense outside of a new center, so Young will be surrounded by the same talent as last season.  The hope is that young WR Kenny Britt will finally have the light switch on, but offseason reports have not been positive about his work ethic and dedication to the sport, so it's hard to figure if he'll step up to be the go-to WR on this team.  Even so, Justin Gage and Nate Washington give Young solid options as well.  This is a run-first offense, but what Young doesn't put up in the passing yardage stat column he usually makes up for in the rushing yardage column.  If he kicks in 30 yards rushing a game, which is about what he averaged in his starts last season, that's an extra 75 passing yards per game by normal scoring standards.  He has upside beyond his 19th QB drafted status, and he's an excellent QB2 who has the upside to flirt with low level QB1 status.

20) Matt Cassel
ADP: 191.6 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Cassel was a mess last season, and there's reason to think he'll be a bit different this season.  His offensive line was a mess for most of last season before somewhat solidifying down the stretch, so hopefully they will continue to improve with an offseason together.  Charlie Weis was hired as the offensive coordinator to help turn Cassel around, and Weis is known for developing QBs, so Cassel has a fine tutor working with him.  Dwayne Bowe, while insanely talented, has not shown the dedication and commitment necessary to become the #1 WR that this team sorely needs.  Chris Chambers was a huge surprise last season, and he'll return opposite Bowe, so Cassel has some decent weapons around him combined with Jamaal Charles.  Cassel is a risk, but at this price, you could do worse for a QB2.  I think he's worth combining with a reliable option ahead of him to see if the coaching staff can correct the big step back he took last season.  The improved talent around him can't hurt, either.

21) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.7 (Undrafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Smith took back his starting job last season, and he played reasonably well.  SF has upgraded it's line, Vernon Davis has emerged as one of the league's best TEs, and Michael Crabtree is set to emerge as a great NFL WR.  Josh Morgan is an underrated WR opposite Crabtree, and they also signed Ted Ginn Jr., to run some deep routes.  SF's offense looks very good with talent all over.  SF has tried its best to accommodate Smith's short-comings in traditional formations by lining him up in the shotgun more often, but they are well aware that Frank Gore is their best player, and they have stated that they want to re-dedicate themselves to a power rushing attack.  Smith's ability to produce solid fantasy numbers is directly correlated to how well he adjusts to playing out of traditional, non-shotgun formations.  That being said, he's a solid QB2 and nothing more.

22) Matt Moore

ADP: 203.1 (Undrafted)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Moore finally took over for Jake Delhomme last season, and he showed the promise that Carolina saw in him as he moved the offense well the last couple games of the season.  The rushing attack is undoubtedly the focal point of this offense, so Moore's upside is limited.  Carolina's line remains excellent, but outside of Steve Smith, the passing game weapons are unproven.  Dwayne Jarrett is technically the starter, but his supposed solid practices have never translated into good play on gameday.  They drafted WR Brandon Lafell who should prove to be a good outside WR in time, but Fox always defers to veterans, and Lafell will have his work cut out for him if he wants to start.  Given the run-first nature of the offense and the lack of secondary options in the receiving game, Moore looks to be no better than a reasonable QB2.

23) Matt Leinart
ADP: 207.1 (Undrafted)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Leinart finally gets his chance to start with Kurt Warner's retirement.  Leinart is a huge question mark, and is rightfully being drafted amongst the lesser QB2s, but he is certainly set up in a situation to succeed.  Despite the trade of Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals remain stacked at WR.  Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best in the game, Steve Breaston has been very productive in his first two seasons, and Early Doucet really came on in the playoffs last year when Boldin was hurt, and sports a similar skill set as well.  Coach Wisenhunt wants to re-focus on the running game with Beanie Wells given the change in QB, but if Leinart can earn his trust, he'll be able to produce some good numbers.  Leinart is a risky pick for those with a risky QB1, but he's a good pick for those who draft a rock-solid, top 5 QB as someone who could prove useful as trade bait or a bye-week option later.

Update: Leinart was released by the Cardinals, and he has signed on as a backup with the Texans.  Needless to say, he's no longer worth drafting.

24) Mark Sanchez

ADP: 207.5 (Undrafted)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Sanchez started off with a bang, but he quickly started making too many rookie mistakes in the interception departments, and he eventually was relegated to a game manager.  The Jets offensive line remains elite, but Shonn Greene, and to a lesser extent LaDainian Tomlinson, will remain the focal point of this offense.  The Jets did add a lot of talent at the WR position by trading for Braylon Edwards last season, and then also trading for Santonio Holmes this offseason as well.  Holmes will miss the first 4 games thanks to a league suspension, but unless Edwards can recover from 2 straight lost seasons, Holmes will likely dominate targets when he returns.  Cotchery is best suited for the slot with the trio of WRs that the Jets have, and once Holmes returns, Sanchez will have an enviable group of WRs to throw to, plus TE Dustin Keller.  If Sanchez can take a step forward this year with his decision making, he can certainly become a very solid QB2, but the run-first nature of the offense will limit his upside.  He's safer than Leinart above, but fits into that mold of a perfect QB2 candidate for those taking a top 5 QB in the earlier rounds.

QB2 Thoughts: There's a lot of solid options here as well, and the best way to strategize is to mitigate your risk.  Like I mentioned in the overviews, if you take Rodgers, Brees, Manning, or someone who will only come out of your lineup on their bye week, then don't take a boring backup QB like Henne, Smith, or Moore.  Shoot for guys with bigger upside like Young or Stafford.  If you take a riskier QB like Cutler, then it's smarter to play it safe with guys like Flacco or McNabb who will give you solid, if not spectacular numbers if your 1st QB busts.