2010 WR2 Value Analysis

13) Anquan Boldin

ADP: 35.2 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Boldin put in his usual good season last year, eclipsing 1,000 yards, but disappointing with only 4 TDs.  Kurt Warner took a step back last season, mostly due to a bum hip, and Boldin's numbers suffered as a result.  Boldin was traded to the Ravens in the offseason, so he now becomes the unquestioned #1 WR on his team for the first time since Fitzgerald arrived in Arizona.  His receptions, yards, and TDs should increase over last season, and he has a chance to post his best season since 2005.  The question with Boldin is always his health, as he's only played 16 games twice in his career, but his new upside as the #1 option on an up-and-coming offense balances out that risk, and he's a solid low-end WR1.

14) Steve Smith (NYG)

ADP: 38.7 (4th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued


Overview: Steve Smith absolutely exploded out of the gates in 2009, surprising many across the NFL.  The Giants lacked a legit WR heading into the season with the suspension and imprisonment of Plaxico Burress and the retirement of Amani Toomer, but Smith stepped up into the go-to receiver role.  Eli will look to continue the improvement he showed last season, and the return to health of Jacobs and Bradshaw should give them some good offensive punch.  Why overrated you say?  Steve Smith, while he did make an abnormal amount of downfield plays last season, is mostly a possession receiver.  This is how he was profiled coming out of USC, and nothing has changed.  This is best represented by his 2nd half YPC average of 10.3 as he started to settle into that role as the season moved along.  I don't doubt Smith's ability to turn in a fine 2010 season, but I think his yardage total will drop, and he's not a big receiver, so he's not a threat for double digit TDs.  If I'm taking a WR1 or one of the first WR2s, I want a receiver that can consistently make big plays and have double digit TD possibility.  Smith simply doesn't provide that, so it'll be hard for him to live up to his draft slot.

15) Steve Smith (CAR)
ADP: 40.2 (4th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued

Overview: Delhomme imploded again, and Carolina shifted him into a pure game manager, so Steve Smith's fantasy value suffered accordingly.  It was no coincidence that once Matt Moore took over, Smith exploded during the final month for 378 yards and 3 TDs.  Matt Moore will start in 2010, and I expect him to play well and hold the job for the 2010 season.  Carolina's line is solid, and their rushing attack is potent.  Smith did break his arm, but he's expected back right before the season starts, and I don't forsee this being a problem for his 2010 season.  I fully expect a bounceback season from Steve Smith, and I would have no problem drafting him in the 3rd round among the WR1s.  He's undervalued at his current ADP and would be a steal in the 4th round.

16) Michael Crabtree

ADP: 43.1 (4th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Crabtree annoyed those who drafted him by living up to his promise and sitting out for 6 weeks of the regular season in a ridiculous holdout.  Once he hit the field, however, it was like he was playing since week 1.  He didn't post a 100 yard game, and he only had 2 TDs, but he was consistent on a weekly basis, and he would have been real close to 1,000 yards had he played the entire season.  Crabtree runs good routes, is good after the catch, and knows how to get open.  He's not a burner, so he'll need to be able to get open deep to join the truly elite.  I expect improvement in his 2nd season, especially in the TD department, but he's not a WR1.  Don't overdraft based on his hype, and Alex Smith hurts his upside.  He's a solid WR2, but I'd rather draft Bowe and Nicks.

17) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 45.4 (4th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Ochocinco started off the season on fire and had a big first half, but when Palmer fell apart in the 2nd half, Ochocinco went down with him.  It was clear that Ochocinco has plenty left in the tank from a skill set point of view.  Cincy added Antonio Bryant opposite him to stretch the field, and they also added Shipley and Gresham to improve their threats over the middle, so defenses won't be able to key in on Chad this season like they were able to last year.  His value is directly tied to Palmer's ability to bounceback from whatever caused his arm to go limp last season, so if you believe in Palmer, draft Ochocinco, and he could provide borderline WR1 value.  If you don't, then stay away.  I think he's a solid value as a WR2.

18) Mike Sims-Walker

ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Sims-Walker went from no name to big name in the first half of the season last year.  Jacksonville lacked any semblance of a #1 WR, but when healthy, Sims-Walker provided exactly that.  Unfortunately a combination of nagging injuries, something Sims-Walker is no stranger to, and mediocre play from David Garrard caused him to sink in the 2nd half as both his receptions and his YPC dropped sharply in the 2nd half.  Sims-Walker has ideal size and speed to be a #1 WR, but his injury history and QB situation will continue to hold him back.  If he's healthy for 16 games, he has the ability to slightly exceed his ADP, but his downside is large.  I think he's being over-drafted a bit this season.

19) Hakeem Nicks

ADP: 53.4 (5th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Now here's a young WR I really like.  Nicks started slow thanks to an injury, but he was unfairly stuck behind Mario Manningham during the middle of the season prior to finally overtaking him towards the end of the season.  Nicks is a big, physical WR who can get deep when he wants and boasts the complete package.  He just needs to continue to concentrate and not drop catchable passes.  The coaching staff is again making Nicks battle Manningham for the starting role, but as long as his head is in the game, Nicks will easily win the competition.  As I mentioned above, Steve Smith profiles much better as a possession WR, so I expect Nicks to emerge in the Plaxico Burress role.  Smith will catch more passes, but Nicks will provide bigger plays, rack up more yards, and score more.  Nicks is a great WR2 in the 5th round, and I'd take him as high as the late 4th round.

20) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 54.3 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Bowe was a monster bust in 2009.  He dropped too many passes, KC's offensive line was a mess for the first half of the season, and Matt Cassel was completely lost all season long.  To add insult to injury, he managed to rack up a 4 game suspension, which amusingly did his owners more good than bad as you couldn't start him anymore and watch him do nothing.  KC's offensive line should improve in 2010, but it's hard to say how much.  Charlie Weis was hired to tutor Matt Cassel, so he's being coached by a good offensive mind and QB coach.  I expect improvement, but I have no idea how much.  Chris Chambers looked revived last season and will be a solid option across the field from him.  Jamaal Charles provides an explosive option at RB, so there's more talent to help him out than last season.  There's no question that Bowe has the talent to be a fantasy WR1, but his QB situation and concentration remain concerns.  I saved the best news for last, and that's his improved dedication this offseason.  He attended Larry Fitzgerald's camp, and that camp did wonders for Sidney Rice last season.  Considering the camp is obviously optional, it shows that Bowe might be taking the necessary steps to capitalize on his immense talent.  Weis is also excellent with WRs, and coach Haley has been open with his praise.  Things are looking up for Bowe.

21) Percy Harvin
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Percy Harvin won Offensive ROY for 2009, and there's no question he deserved it.  Harvin is explosive, tough as nails, and versatile.  He lined up all over the field and made plays no matter where he was.  There are three problems with Harvin in 2010.  First of all, like I mentioned with Sidney Rice, Favre is due to regress, so receiving numbers and TDs will be down across the board.  Secondly, Harvin is still battling migraines, and given the unpredictable nature of them, he might miss another game or three this season.  Thirdly, and probably least important, Harvin does play the slot as Berrian lines up outside, so he's not on the field as much as the WRs being drafted around him.  Harvin will produce as long as he's healthy and getting  his touches, but drafting him as a WR2 is reaching given the aforementioned above reasons.  If everything breaks right, Harvin will produce like a WR2, but drafting him with those expectations is a bit much.

Update: With Rice out at least 8 weeks, Harvin will be the focal point of the passing attack.  He has big upside and is an excellent WR2.

22) Pierre Garcon

ADP: 60.5 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Garcon came out of nowhere in 2009 to be a solid fantasy contributor at the WR3 position.  I love his skills and believe he has the speed and after-the-catch ability to stay on the outside and line up opposite Reggie Wayne in 2010.  He's certainly more talented than Austin Collie, and he definitely profiles as the better outside receiver.  Anthony Gonzalez's return complicates things a little bit, but it'd be impossible for the Colts to ignore Garcon's contributions last season.  The problem is that while the Colts are an explosive, pass-first offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed here.  He's being drafted as if he's the starter, and if that holds up, he should provide borderline WR2 value.  Keep a close eye on how the Colts handle their WR situation this preseason.

23) Hines Ward
ADP: 63.7 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Hines Ward continually defies logic and produces solid fantasy value each season.  Ward posted the 2nd best yardage total of his career in 2009, but there's a lot working against him in 2010.  First of all, Big Ben is suspended for 4 games, so the passing game will probably be erratic.  Secondly, Ward will be 34 when the season starts, and I personally shy away from WRs before they start hitting the wall at the end of their career.  The good news is as the possession receiver of the team, he'll likely be relied upon by whomever starts in weeks 1-4 for the Steelers.  Keep an eye on him in the preseason to ensure he's healthy and recovered from last season's knee injury, but I'd much rather have Ward as a solid WR3 than a WR2 this season.

24) Jeremy Maclin

ADP: 65.8 (6th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Maclin was a wildly productive receiver at Missouri during his college days, but he mostly played in the slot.  That's what made his relatively smooth transition to an outside NFL WR so impressive.  Maclin isn't a pure burner like teammate DeSean Jackson, but he's a good route runner, quick, and knows how to get open, so he's an excellent complement on the other side of the field.  I'm high on Kevin Kolb this season, so the transition from McNabb to Kolb should not be a concern, and their muddled backfield will mean Philly will stay a pass-first team.  I like Maclin's prospects for 2010, and I think he has a very good chance to meet or slightly exceed his draft status this season.

WR2 Thoughts: My WR2 philosophy is simple.  If I'm picking one in the 3rd or 4th rounds, they must possess the talent and situation to perform like a WR1.  If I'm picking one in the 5th or 6th round, I try to limit my downside and go for the safer option, but not one that doesn't lack upside.  Steve Smith from the Panthers, Hakeem Nicks, and Dwayne Bowe present the biggest upside here, while Boldin, Crabtree (despite his youth), and Ochocino present safer options.  I also like Maclin's prospects this season if you're gonna wait around for one.