2010 RB2 Value Analysis

13) Ryan Grant

ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Grant had a pretty surprising season last year, rebounding to improve his YPC by half a yard and tossing in 11 TDs.  He lacked the big plays that made him a fantasy star in 2007, but he has settled in as a grind-it-out RB on an explosive offense.  The Packers, after debating the position, decided to do little, and Grant will again have little problem with carries.  Their team remains the same as it was last season, so many are projecting Grant to essentially repeat last season's numbers.  A good amount of carries, solid yardage, double digit TDs on the explosive offense, and little production in the passing game.  The lack of receiving limits his upside, and while Grant is a "safe" pick, I've never thought much of his talent, and I'd pass on him for more appealing options.

14) Jamaal Charles

ADP: 23.6 (2nd round, 11th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Coach Todd Haley stubbornly stuck with Larry Johnson despite the fact it was blatantly obvious to everyone else that LJ had little left.  Once coach Haley relented and Jamaal Charles was installed as the feature back late in the season, Charles exploded as Chris Johnson-lite, hitting big plays and making the most of his offensive situation despite a shaky line and poor QB play.  The Chiefs line should improve this season, and Charlie Weis hopes to help coach Cassel up into the QB he was in NE back in 2008.  The biggest news story is that the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones this offseason, which I believe is the sole reason why Charles is being drafted towards the back half of the 2nd round.  Let's take a look at Thomas Jones quickly, however.  Jones, while still in amazing shape, is 32 years old, has a good amount of carries on his legs, and he faded down the stretch last year before giving way to Shonn Greene in the playoffs.  TJ is a solid backup and is a legit threat for goal line work, but Charles is the far more talented player at this stage in their careers, and Charles should be the offensive centerpiece along with Dwayne Bowe.  You have to keep his TD projections in check, but Charles is extremely talented and will be a RB1, barring injury, when all is said and done this year.  I wouldn't have a problem with him as my RB1, and you can likely get him as your RB2.  Let the rest of your league fear Thomas Jones.

Update: Thomas Jones has been running as the "starter" so far, so Charles might start out a bit slow, but the fact remains that Charles is the better player, and he will receive more touches.  Charles might be a little frustrating during the first month of the season while this situation sorts itself out, so reaching for him in the 1st round is not advised, but the better talent will win out here.  I think Charles will be in the top 12 RBs by season's end.

15) Chris Wells
ADP: 23.7 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: There were some high hopes for Chris Wells last season, but he mostly disappointed while playing backup to Tim Hightower until the 2nd half of the season when he had some good games.  Their line returns intact, but Kurt Warner has retired, and Matt Leinart will take over the starting QB position.  This means we should expect a more balanced attack, so the Cardinals will run more this season.  This stands to benefit Beanie Wells.  Tim Hightower will remain the passing down back, so Wells is not going to catch a lot of passes.  Some are saying that Hightower will continue to be the "starter", but that Wells will get more carries.  There's no question that Wells is the far more talented runner, and I believe he'll win out in the end.  He could be a lower RB1 if he gets the carries, but exactly how many he'll receive is up for debate at the moment.  Draft him as an RB2 with upside to be a lower RB1, but he could start slowly until his role is clearly defined.  Watch training camp closely.

Update: Hightower has often been the "starter", but I still strongly believe that Wells will be the team's featured RB.  Derek Anderson should slightly improve Wells' fantasy outlook with his aggressiveness, but ultimately their QB play will be poor in real life terms.  I'd prefer to take Wells in the 3rd round after getting 2 more secure fantasy properties ahead of him, so if you take him in the 2nd, ensure you sandwich secure picks around him.

16) Pierre Thomas

ADP: 27.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Pierre Thomas severely disappointed me last season, although he more or less lived up to his RB2 draft status.  Thomas continued to be extremely effective with his touches, but a knee sprain cost him a few weeks to starts the season, and then he was never given the keys to the offense like many expected.  The biggest offseason news for the Saints offense was the release of Mike Bell as Bell was the short yardage back for the Saints last year.  The Saints neither drafted nor signed anyone to replace him, so on the surface it appears that Thomas will regain that job like he had at the end of 2008.  Long-term contract negotiations went nowhere this offseason, and Thomas eventually signed his one year RFA tender.  From all reports, it appears as though the Saints wanted to pay him role player money while Thomas wanted feature back money, so it's unclear exactly what role the Saints want him to play in 2010.  I do think we saw Thomas' floor last season, and we saw his ceiling towards the close to 2008.  I think his value will fall somewhere in the middle, making him a valuable RB2 with additional upside based on his role.  Keep a close eye on the short yardage battle this summer and ensure Lynell Hamilton isn't suddenly performing those duties.  Reggie Bush is not a threat as a pure role player.

Update: Lynell Hamilton tore his ACL, so he is done for the year and is no longer a threat for goal line carries.  Pierre Thomas is unquestionably the best suited for the role on the team, but you can be sure that the Saints will be keeping an eye on RBs as cuts start happening.  Thomas isn't a lock to receive goal line carries, but he's probably going to see more of them to start the season and could put a stranglehold on the job.  His upside is getting bigger, and he's a great pick in the 3rd round.

17) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 30.3 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: I have already covered the Panthers RB situation up in DeAngelo's analysis, and all those same points hold true for Stewart.  The offensive line is strong, and Matt Moore is an upgrade at QB over Jake Delhomme.  I expect Stewart to get more carries this season at the expense of Williams, and if Stewart is preferred at the goal line, then there's no question that Stewart is the back to own with the lower price tag and the higher ceiling.

18) Knowshon Moreno

ADP: 32.4 (3rd round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Moreno had a solid rookie season prior to hitting the rookie wall during December.  Moreno isn't a game-breaker, but he boasts a solid, all-around game without the elite speed.  Denver returns a solid offensive line, but the downgrade of Brandon Marshall to rookie Demaryius Thomas will hurt the attack of the Broncos passing game.  The Broncos have one of the weakest WR groups around, and the downgraded passing attack will limit the upside of the backfield.  Buckhlater will also return to the same role as last year, taking about a 1/3 of the carries and working more on 3rd downs.  Moreno should improve upon his rookie season now that he has a full season under his belt, and if Buckhalter ever went down, Moreno would be an every down back.

Update: Moreno has suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for most of the preseason, and hamstrings can be a tricky injury to overcome.  He was being talked up as a breakout candidate, but if he continues to hover at his current price tag, I'd rather wait for better value later on.

19) LeSean McCoy

ADP: 33.8 (3rd round, 10th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: McCoy split time with Westbrook while Westy was healthy last season, but when Westbrook went down, McCoy never really busted out the way some expected.  He's nowhere near the pass blocker that Westbrook is, and he can't run inside nearly as well.  The Philly offensive line is a work in progress, but the unit has talent.  Mike Bell was signed to handle the short yardage and goal line work while Leonard Weaver will pick up some 3rd down work.  McCoy will start and see the most touches, and he'll be present on 3rd downs.  However, he doesn't have the total skill set, at least yet, that Westbrook had.  He's going to split time all over the place, and while he'll probably be a decent RB2, I'd rather aim higher with my 2nd RB choice, like...

20) Jahvid Best
ADP: 37.2 (4th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Best was on his way to a Heisman nomination prior to being concussed on a scary, freak flip over a defender into the endzone on a TD run.  He has electric speed and moves, and all signs point to him being the Lions starting RB in week 1.  Detroit's line is a question mark, but they do have some talent up front.  The addition of Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler along with Calvin Johnson will give the passing game plenty of options.  Kevin Smith returns, but he was never much of a game breaker, and he's not the talent that Best is.  Smith is also recovering from a late season torn ACL.  Best is built just like Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson, so he's not the prototypical goal line runner.  Kevin Smith, if healthy, will probably occupy that role.  Keep your TD projections in check unless Best is getting goal line carries in the preseason, but he's going to rack up plenty of yards and he's going to make some big plays.  Best is an ideal RB2 with upside.

Update: Best is Detroit's unquestioned feature RB.  He has monster upside, but he has a long history of health issues in college, and being used as a feature RB at the NFL level might be trouble in the 2nd half.  Take him as a RB2 with upside, but ensure to nab a solid RB3.

21) Felix Jones
ADP: 41.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Felix Jones created quite a buzz after a huge 1st round playoff performance of 178 total yards and a TD, but I'm starting to feel as though people are getting too high on him.  The Cowboys return a solid offensive line, and the passing game is going to be among the league's best.  Marion Barber had a disastrous season last year, but he's still on the roster and a threat to touches, especially at the goal line.  Tashard Choice, also a talented RB in his own right, will also command some playing time.  Jones has a history of getting nicked up and missing games, and I don't think the Cowboys will make the same mistake with him that they did by installing Barber as the every-down RB in 2008.  Jones will be explosive, but I feel he'll also be inconsistent as well thanks to his workload.  He may start, but there's too many talented RBs on this roster for Jones to take the job and run.  I think he can be a solid RB2, but his upside will be limited.

Update: Barber has taken the starting job back, so while Jones will see a similar amount of touches, his upside has crashed.  I'm not taking Jones in the 4th round.

22) Matt Forte

ADP: 42.5 (4th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: I'm having trouble deciding exactly how to rank Forte this season, but I think when all is said and done, he'll be a solid RB2.  Forte struggled last year, although he admitted to playing through a knee strain and other ailments throughout the year, and that helps explain his lack of explosion.  The Bears didn't do anything to help their run blocking up front, so that figures to remain a problem area.  They also signed Chester Taylor to help carry the load, so Forte won't be able to rely on his workload for fantasy value anymore, and his first two seasons have shown that he's not overly efficient with his touches for whatever reason.  Furthermore, I read an interesting stat how how his YPC is over a yard better out of the I-form than a single back formation, and unfortunately with the arrival of Martz, the I-form will be used even less frequently.  Still, despite all of that, Forte is a starting RB on an improved offense, and he is more talented that the declining Chester Taylor, so he should see more touches.  He's an excellent 3rd down back, so I doubt Taylor will be exclusive in that role.  He should also score more this season as well with the improved offense.  There's risk here, but there's also some upside, and I think it balances out to be a solid RB2 choice.

23) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 46.8 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Ronnie Brown was on fire last year, posting a borderline top 5 RB status up until his latest serious injury, this time a Lisfranc foot sprain, prematurely ended his season.  The man is clearly snake-bitten with regards to serious injuries, and at 29 years old, he's starting to lose that youth necessary to bounce back 100% from them.  Fortunately for him though, Ricky Williams will be 33 when the season starts, and he just came off of a pretty large workload himself, so he's at risk for falling off a cliff.  Miami returns their good run blocking line, Chad Henne should take another step forward with a year of experience under his belt, and the addition of Brandon Marshall gives them a legit receiving option to open up the field with.  The offense should be more efficient in 2010.  Brown's health is one of the top situations to monitor in training camp as he's a risky RB coming off of a sprained foot.  Everyone knows what he offers to fantasy owners when he's healthy.

24) Joseph Addai

ADP: 48.6 (4th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: It isn't too often that a top 10 RB from a previous year is getting drafted 24th when the team around him hasn't changed a bit, but that's exactly what is happening here, and it's for good reason.  Addai's surge into the top 10 last year was a direct result of the injury to Donald Brown, and also due to his TD total rather than yardage.  Addai should still remain the starter and the goal line back as he is indeed very good at short yardage, but with Addai in a contract year and never showing much explosion or big play ability, the Colts seem likely to use Donald Brown more often this season, dropping Addai into a RB2.  He should post solid RB2 numbers, but his upside is limited to his inability to stay healthy in a feature back role over a season, and the presence of a RB the Colts possibly want to see starting next season.

RB2 Thoughts: There's a lot of solid RB2s this season, but all of them have a problem with either pure talent or workload situation.  The trick to winning a title is to take a shot at the ones most likely to provide RB1 value, and I believe those guys are Charles, Best, and Pierre Thomas this year, with Beanie Wells having an outside chance as well..  Jonathan Stewart is the best RB in this list, but unfortunately he's sharing time with an almost equally talented teammate.  Most of these guys are worth watching in camp and preseason to see what roles they will have for their teams, especially if they're used at the goal line.  I think Charles and Best can provide close to RB1 value without goal line carries thanks to their explosiveness, but Thomas will need them to reach that level of production.  Wells just needs the carries.