2010 WR1 Value Analysis

1) Andre Johnson

ADP: 7.0 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Andre Johnson finished as the #1 fantasy WR in 2009, so he's rightfully coming off the board as the 1st WR in 2010.  He's one of the best all-around WRs, Houston's offensive line remains intact, Schaub remains the QB, and they added Ben Tate to the backfield in an attempt to shore up their backfield.  Houston will remain a pass-first team  Johnson is set up for another big season, and you're paying for his consistency.  After the top 6 RBs are off the board, the RB situation gets a bit murky with SJax's back injury, Mendenhall's unclear role, and Greene's lack of a track record.  It's probably best if you opt for AJ's guaranteed production and track record at that point.

2) Larry Fitzgerald

ADP: 11.7 (1st round, 11th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Despite the fact Kurt Warner's hip injury hindered his ability to throw deeper routes, Fitz performed just fine as the #1 WR taken last season, and his red zone ability kept his fantasy value sky high as he set a career high in TDs.  Unfortunately Kurt Warner has retired, and Matt Leinart is now the starting QB.  Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore, so Fitz is now the clear #1 WR on this team.  We have a couple competing factors here.  Fitz has always performed better when Boldin was hurt, so that's good for his fantasy value.  Many fantasy outlets will look at his previous numbers with Leinart under center and say he'll be just fine, but they are smaller sample sizes.  I think the Cardinals will pass less, and I think Leinart will be less efficient than Warner with the smaller amount of attempts.  I have severe reservations about taking Fitz in the first round with sizeable downgrade at QB and the change in offensive philosophy.  I think Fitz will still post a solid season, but he's got a few things working against him, and I'm not willing to take him in the first round.

3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.4 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Moss was business as usual in 2009 with Tom Brady back under center, posting the numbers we expect from him each year.  With Brady back under center, Moss's yardage rebounded, and he posted double digit TDs again...there was only one non-Oakland season in which he hasn't.  Brady will be another season removed from his ACL surgery, and his nagging injuries from 2009 are behind him.  The problem I see here is if Wes Welker isn't right and the Patriots underneath passing game isn't as efficient, Moss will have more trouble getting open down the field.  Also, at age 33, Moss is at risk for slowing down a bit, and since his speed is what he uses to get open, there's a chance he could start slowly becoming less explosive.  He'll be plenty motivated in a contract year, and only an injury will keep him out of the top 5 WRs.

Update: Brady and Moss have looked great in the preseason.  It's all systems go.

4) Reggie Wayne

ADP: 17.4 (2nd round, 5th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Reggie Wayne had an interesting 2009 season.  On the surface, his numbers were just fine.  If you look closer, from weeks 11-16, he only had one 100 yard game and he only scored twice, far off his pace from weeks 1-10.  Anyone who owned him last year, myself included, was disappointed about how he limped to the finish.  There really isn't much of an explanation for why that happened as he wasn't hurt.  Regardless of this, Wayne is not showing signs of slowing down, and he's still the clear #1 WR in Indy.  Indy did not lose anyone this offseason, so their offense will remain elite.  While he doesn't have the ceiling that some of the younger options drafted below him have, he has a higher floor, and there's a price to pay for yearly consistency.  Wayne is still one of the safest WRs to draft, and the middle of the 2nd round seems just right for his production.

5) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 18.9 (2nd round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Calvin Johnson was a pretty big bust last season, but it certainly wasn't his fault.  Stafford was a rookie QB, when Stafford was hurt their backup QBs were terrible, and most importantly, the Lions didn't field a single player that would take attention away from Johnson.  That will all change in 2010.  Matthew Stafford is healthy again and a year more mature, and the Lions added Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler.  While Burleson and Scheffler aren't game breakers, they are legitimate receiving options that the defenses have to account for, and Best is a potential game breaker at RB both running and receiving. Johnson has the best surrounding situation of his career, and it would not surprise me to see a career year from him in 2010.  There's no receiver I'd rather draft this season.

6) Miles Austin

ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Miles Austin often went undrafted last season as he was buried on the depth chart, but after an injury to Roy Williams opened the door for him in the starting lineup, and Austin never looked back.  Austin has good speed, good hands, and is a terror after the catch.  Dallas mostly returns their same offense with a trio of good RBs, and they drafted WR Dez Bryant whom will likely replace Roy Williams in the starting lineup.  Austin and Bryant are arguably one of the most talented WR duos in the NFL as Bryant is already NFL-ready.  Austin is for real, and I expect a similar performance from last year.  The extra attention he'll receive as a result of last year's breakout will mostly be off-set by the addition of Dez Bryant and the continued presence of Jason Witten.

7) Brandon Marshall

ADP: 23.8 (1st round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Marshall was a disappointment in the first half last year, but he waas huge in the 2nd half and his overall numbers were about what people expected.  Unfortunately his continued immaturity resulted in a week 17 suspension in when his team needed him most, and he was traded in the offseason to the Miami Dolphins.  Honestly, though, it doesn't change his fantasy value that much.  He has upgraded at QB as Chad Henne is a better talent than Kyle Orton, and he most certainly has a stronger arm.  Marshall will still be the go-to receiver for his team, and he's supported by a strong running game.  A potential problem is that Marshall underwent another offseason hip surgery, but he's expected to be 100% come training camp.  Keep an eye on him and make sure he looks good this preseason.  I like Marshall's talent and his new situation is fine, but he's not going to be in as explosive of an offense as the couple receivers being drafted right after him.  Marshall is a solid WR1, but I think there's a bit more potential with the next couple WRs.

8) Roddy White
ADP: 24.9 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Undervalued

Overview: White, along with Calvin Johnson, are my two favorite WR1s this season.  Last season White started out slow, caught absolute fire, but then injuries to Michael Turner and Matt Ryan de-railed the entire offense.  Both Ryan and Turner are back to 100%, and this offense is going to score points.  White is the unquestioned #1 on his team, but the running game of Michael Turner and the presence of Tony Gonzalez and hopefully the speed of Harry Douglas will keep enough attention off of White.  The Falcons will be in more passing formations, more hurry-up offense situations (by design), and this will lead to more opportunities for White to make big plays.  He's a stud WR1 who is coming at a slight discount this year thanks to a disappointing 2009, but I would take him anywhere in the 2nd round and feel fully confident about the selection.

9) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 28.1 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Jackson led the world in big play TDs last season, elevating his rookie breakout season into becoming one of the NFL's most dangerous WRs.  Donovan McNabb and his cannon arm are gone, but the more accurate Kevin Kolb will be taking over.  Jackson showed a great rapport with Kolb last season during his brief time on the field, so 

it shouldn't impact Jackson's fantasy value too much.  Kolb won't throw as many bombs to Jackson as he doesn't possess the same arm strength that McNabb does, but he'll lead him well on routes and allow him to take advantage of his after-the-catch elusiveness.  Jackson carries a bit of risk because we can't say for sure how well Kolb will play in his first full season, and he's not a TD machine in the redzone due to his lack of size, so he carries some downside as well.  He has a chance to land somewhere near the top 10 as long as Kolb doesn't fall flat, but since Jackson won't be hitting as many big plays, I think there's a chance for disappointment here.

10) Greg Jennings

ADP: 29.7 (3rd round, 6th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Jennings, like Brandon Marshall, suffered from a poor first half.  The GB line was a mess, and since Jennings is primarily a deep threat, Rodgers simply didn't have enough time to get the ball to him down the field.  Fortunately for his owners, the Packers shored up their line with the re-signing of Mark Tauscher, and Jennings had a much better second half of the season.  He had the same amount of catches, but his YPC went up 3.5 yards.  His TDs remained a problem as he only scored 4 all season, but you can bet that he'll score more this season.  He's not a redzone target, but his short route running is excellent, and he came somewhat make up for it.  With Donald Driver now 35 years old and coming off of dual offseason knee surgeries, expect Jennings to be the go-to receiver all year and possibly post his best season to date.  Jennings is definitely a WR to target.

11) Marques Colston
ADP: 31.1 (3rd round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Colston stayed healthy for 16 games, but he still fell a bit short of expectations.  He only caught 70 passes, so he didn't get as many opportunities as many #1 receivers have.  I think it's mostly a factor of Brees willing to spread the ball around to whomever is open rather than Colston being the top target he looks to on most plays.  The Saints return their entire offensive system, so while Colston can improve a bit with more receptions, it's anyone's guess as to whether or not he'll get them.  While Colston has never been seriously injured, he has a tendency to get banged up and either miss a few games or play ineffectively through the injury.  Colston is a safe pick as the #1 WR on an elite offense, but he's not a truly explosive option, and I don't think he has the upside people originally saw when he first exploded onto the scene.

12) Sidney Rice

ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)

Value: Undraftable?

Overview: Sidney Rice, along with Miles Austin, probably helped win some fantasy titles last season.  Both receivers were either endgame picks or waiver wire darlings who exploded into the upper echelon of fantasy WRs in 2009.  Rice is now being drafted as a WR1, but I'm concerned about a repeat.  First of all, Brett Favre is going to regress from his career year in 2009, so in accordance with that, there will be less yards and TDs to go around.  Secondly, Rice had some sort of mysterious hip injury that he had surgery on this offseason, but little is known about it, and he's done next to nothing all offseason so far.  Considering the injury problems Rice has had in his early NFL career, this warrants monitoring.  If Rice is healthy, he should come close to last year's numbers, but there's a couple red flags here, and I'd rather pass to draft someone else.

Update: Rice underwent hip surgery, and he'll be out at least 8 weeks.  You can draft him as a WR5, but there's an outside chance that he might not play at all this season.

WR1 Thoughts: There's a mixed bag this year in the top 12.  First the negatives.  Fitzgerald, Marshall, and Jackson will be playing with new QBs this season, while Marshall is on a whole new team.  Fitzgerald and Marshall will also play on the worst projected passing offenses of the bunch.  I know I'm omitting the Lions, but I think with all the upgrades they've made, they'll see a sizeable jump in passing production.  Rice's production was tied to Favre's career year, and he's probably going to regress.  Marshall and Rice both had offseason hip surgeries. The positives are the slightly deflated values of Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings due to various problems last season.  I don't think you'll see Calvin Johnson this low for a while.  There's a little something for everyone in this tier, and outside of Rice, you should try your best to land one of them.