Saturday, January 6, 2007

Falcons "Not Married" To Michael Vick

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported today that the Falcons are not necessarily commited to Michael Vick longterm. I know this might be shocking to some people, especially in light of the monster contract Vick signed just two years ago and the fact he's the face of the franchise, but the fact remains that the Falcons passing offense has been among the leagues worst ever since he became the starting QB.

Michael Vick is an interesting athlete to talk about. He has incredible raw potential which includes the fastest pair of legs ever to line up behind a center, and nobody questions his incredible arm strength. The problem is his mental toughness and his willingness to work on his deficiencies as a QB, so the problems he has are confined to his head. He has not seemed to improve as a passer over the last couple years. I personally thought earlier this season was a turning point for him; he publically questioned the direction of the offense and that he wasn't being allowed to pass as much as he wanted. He responded with two of the best passing games of his career (18/30, 232 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs vs. PIT, followed up by 19/27, 291 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs @ CIN). He went back to the Vick we all know after that, with only 2 quality passing performances over the next 8 games.

He still remains a very dangerous option at the QB position with his legs, but he doesn't seem to be progressing as a passer. It's a shame because he could prove to be almost undefensable if teams respected his ability as a passer, but they don't. One thing a lot of his critics don't seem to understand is the Falcons' lack of talent at the WR position. Dunn has always been reliable out of the backfield, and Crumpler is one of the best TEs in the NFL, but everything they've tried to do at the WR position has failed. Peerless Price went from stud second option in Buffalo to flop in Atlanta. Michael Jenkins was a first round pick, and has good size, but doesn't seem to get separation and drops too many passes. Roddy White has shown some promise, and has the deep speed to properly utilize Vick's arm, but he's been inconsistent at best thus far in his young career. The thing that remains to be seen is whether the WRs' problems are due to Vick or due to lack of talent/experience. The Falcons never brought in an established WR for Vick. Price was the only big WR signing for the Falcons while Vick has been the starter, and he wasn't necessarily established considering only he had only one 1,000 yard season prior to joining the Falcons.

Matt Schaub, Vick's backup QB for the past several seasons, has been a coveted property by several teams for the last 2 offseason. He's a good, young QB who's shown promise when playing while Vick has been injured, and obviously he's shown several teams that he's capable of being a starting QB in the time he's spent on the field. Schaub is obviously the reason the Falcons would say this about Vick; they obviously feel he's capable of leading the team and they would receive a king's ransom in return for Vick. I think it'd be a smart idea because if the Falcons truly believe that Schaub would lead the offense just as effectively, trading Vick would allow them to upgrade multiple positions and it'd be a win-win situation for them.

Sean Payton Named NFL Coach of the Year

Wow, what a story the New Orleans Saints are. In 2005, the Saints essentially played 16 games on the road. The NFL handled it about as well as possible. The Saints eventually were able to play their "home" games at LSU's Tiger Stadium, but ask any athlete...that's still not playing at home. Deuce McAllister, their best offensive player, tore his ACL in week 5 and missed the rest of the season. Joe Horn dealt with leg injuries and missed several games while not being near 100% in others. Aaron Brooks was still their quarterback, and perhaps defined his career by throwing the ball over his head while being sacked for absolutely no reason. Their defense was a mess and couldn't stop anyone. Coach Haslett had overstayed his welcome by several years and never had the team playing consistently the entire time he coached there. All players were playing with a heavy heart since their city, family, and friends had their lives turned upside down by Hurricane Katrina. Haslett was fired after the season, and New Orleans decided on Sean Payton as their next coach. Payton was a hot commodity around the league, establishing a solid reputation as a good offensive mind. He had his work cut out for him to not only rebuild a team, but rebuild a city's excitement in the sport of football coming off one of the biggest national disasters in United States' history.

Flash forward to the night before the 2006 NFL Draft on Friday, April 28th. The Houston Texans report that they have signed Mario Williams to a contract and would be selecting him with the first pick in the draft. Reggie Bush, the most exciting and marketable NFL prospect since Michael Vick, fell right into New Orleans' lap. I'm sure they received a number of very solid offers when that news broke, but there was no way New Orleans was going to pass on Bush. Not only would he provide insurance should Deuce McAllister not make it back from his knee injury in time to start the season, but he would also provide a sagging team and a deflated city with a big reason to be excited about football again. The Saints had also signed Drew Brees to be their franchise QB, which had fans excited as well. He was coming off a serious injury to his throwing arm, but the reports all summer long remained positive about his prognosis and there was every reason to think he'd be ready to roll once the season started.

New Orleans started off the 2006 season with a win at Cleveland, and McAllister rushed for 90 yards, more importantly looking healthy and past his knee injury. The most surprising performance of the game was by 7th round pick Marques Colston who posted 49 yards and a TD while starting opposite Joe Horn. The next week they won a shootout with Green Bay 34-27, and Brees lit it up the GB secondary for 353 yards and 2 TDs. New Orleans returned home in week 3 to the Superdome in a huge divisional battle with the Falcons, and set the tone of the game by blocking Atlanta's punt on their first possession and returning it for a TD. They went on to win decidedly by a score of 23-3. They finished the 2006 season with a 10-6 record, good for 2nd best in the NFC, and a first round bye.

Payton's greatest accomplishment, aside from reviving an entire franchise and fan base, was the creative ways he utilized the strengths of Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, and Reggie Bush on offense. Brees was finally able to consistently throw the deep ball, Deuce McAllister handled the tough, inside running, and Reggie Bush was utilized extensively in the passing game and on returns so that Payton could effective use both him and McAllister. Bush won the game for the Saints in week 5 with a punt return for a TD, his first NFL TD. He finally broke out on the ground in week 16 against the Giants, recording his first 100 yard rushing game and scoring once on the ground. The most shocking aspect of the Saints offense was the production of Colston, who despite battling an injury starting in week 11, managed to post 1038 receiving yards and 8 TDs on the season. He would have been the hands down OROY had he not been injured as he was on pace to shatter all rookie receiving records. He even stepped up as the go-to guy when Horn went down. Amazing.

It's a shame that Payton didn't win the award unanimously. The other two coaches that received votes were the Jets' Eric Mangini, the Chargers' Marty Schottenheimer, and the Titans' Jeff Fisher. All of those coaches had great seasons, but when you factor in everything that Payton had to deal with this season and how he successfully overcame it, nobody was even close.

Friday, January 5, 2007

Playoff Fantasy Football

For all you fantasy football enthusiasts, there's a couple ways to keep your league going beyond the regular season. My friends and I tried one league a couple years ago where you draft players, set a lineup each week, and the team with the highest point total wins after the Super Bowl, so it's run similar to how a normal fantasy league does. We didn't like it that much because some of the people didn't have any players left come the Super Bowl. Granted, that's part picking the right players, but we were hoping to find a different way of keeping more people in it.

I ran across a different "survivor" style league that we've been using for the past several years that everyone seems to like a lot better. Everyone works from the same set of players that are involved in the playoffs, and you can only use each player once. You set a starting lineup that everyone agrees upon, usually the standard QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D that most leagues use, and then pick your lineup from the players still left in both playoffs and furthermore those you haven't used in a previous round. The owner with the most cumulative points after the Super Bowl wins. It's a bit challenging because your goal is to pick a starting lineup of players who perform well, but their teams get eliminated. Not only that, but you also need to consider the matchups the players will face. For example, Manning only gets one game at home (barring them advancing to the AFC Championship and playing a team other than SD), where his passer rating is 16 points better. That being said, while I think the Colts will win, it's smarter to use Manning now against KC's defense than trying to use him against Baltimore next round if they win.

I'm good at picking players, but I haven't had much success picking teams that win, especially in the playoffs. At any rate, here's my picks for this weekend:

Indy over KC - KC is going to run Larry Johnson down Indy's throat this weekend, but with Bob Sanders back the Indy run D won't be quite as bad. The problem is Trent Green and how terrible he's looked since returning from that awful injury against Cincinnati earlier this year. Indy's pass D is actually pretty good, and I just don't think KC will be able to keep up with Indy in the dome.

Dallas over Seattle - Seattle wasn't nearly as dominant at home this season, and they're dealing with way too many injuries. Hasselbeck finally looks healthy, but Alexander looks like a totally different running back this year in a bad way. He had a great game against GB and another very solid outing against SD, but he's averaging 3.6 YPC versus his career average of 4.4, and just doesn't look motivated. He finally got paid, which is why he was running so hard the previous few seasons, and I think Seattle made a terrible decision to give a 28 year old RB with a history of not working hard a big contract extension. Darrell Jackson is hurt again, and even if he plays, his turf toe will not allow him to be the same. Branch has looked very ordinary for the most part since coming over from NE, and even Hackett is hurt. The worst news yet, however, were the injuries to starting corners Trufant and Herndon the last two weeks of the season. I think Romo will have a fine day against a beat up secondary and the Dallas D will do enough to keep them going into the next round.

New England over NYJ - The Jets story was nice this year, but I think it ends here. These coaches know each othe pretty well, but I think we all know Belichick will have the decided edge over his former student Eric Mangini. With Rodney Harrison out, the way to beat the Patriots is go deep, and Pennington's arm just won't allow the Jets to do that. Since they run so many short passing plays, NE won't have as much to think about and Belichick will have his defense ready to shut down the talent-bereft Jets offense. Brady is Brady in the playoffs, and the Jets run defense is horrible, so NE should have no problem here.

Philly over NYG - The Giants have been a mess in the 2nd half of the season, and I can't see them beating a Philly team that's on fire. Jeff Garcia has more than kept the offense afloat...dare I say he's actually improved it since McNabb went down. He's playing some of the best football of his career and I can't see the scuffling Giants beating Philly on the road. The X-factor here is Tiki Barber's pending retirement, and the Giants could make a Steelers/Bettis type run much to everyone's surprise, but I think Eli makes too many mistakes and the defense is not good enough to get that done.

Thursday, January 4, 2007

Bill Cowher Resigns

Bill Cowher is expected to announce his resignation tomorrow afternoon. This isn't too surprising considering the fact he's been with the Steelers since 1992, plus the 2005 Super Bowl run followed by a disappointing 8-8 2006 season.

The disappointing 2006 season can be squarely placed on the head of Ben Roethlisberger...literally. In the 2006 offseason, his stubborn decision to ride a motorcycle without a helmet was magnified when he smashed himself through the windshield of another car. Athletes, like all people in the limelight, have additional pressure on them to make the right decisions. Not only does he affect himself, family, and friends by his decision, but he also affects all of his teammates, coaches, and fans as well. This wasn't a simple mistake; it was a flatout disregard for his personal safety. After watching him this season and comparing his stats to his first two years, it was obvious he never fully recovered from the accident which negatively impacted the entire team. I used to really like him as a quarterback and as an individual through what I knew of him via interviews, but I lost all respect for him after that incident and was glad he paid the price by the disappointing season the Steelers endured. Hopefully he's grown up and learned his lesson.

Rant aside, I wouldn't be surprised if that situation played into his decision. I'm sure the main reason, however, is 15 years with the same organization. He was a very successful coach who reached the Super Bowl twice, winning it once. I have nothing but respect for the job he did while in Pittsburgh as he handled his players and himself with class. I think we'll see him back in the NFL sooner than later. He has a contract with Pittsburgh through 2007, so it sounds like he'll take a year off and then resurface somewhere next season.

Given the rumors surrounding offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and offensive line coach Russ Grimm for other job openings, it sounds like they'll be leading candidates for the Pittsburgh job as well. They have a solid offensive line, Big Ben should return to form next season, Willie Parker has turned into a star, and Ward, Holmes, and Miller provide solid receiving targets. Given the strong defense they'll return as well, whoever takes over this team will inherit a great situation.

Fantasy Impact: If Wisenhunt or Grimm takes over, the Steelers should remain relatively the same team given their new coach will be an internal replacement. If Grimm is given the job, that would increase the likelihood that Wisenhunt will leave since Grimm would be leapfrogging him in the coaching tree. If that's the case, the face of the offense could change given a new offensive coordinator will need to be signed. Given this is mildly surprising news and Pittsburgh wasn't planning on this happening, little is known about any external candidates. Big Ben should be a quality QB2 next season assuming he returns to form, and the continued development of Holmes should give Ward his most talented WR counterpart since Burress left. Heath Miller was vastly underused this past season, and it would be to Pittsburgh's benefit to utilize him more. He'll remain an interesting TE2 with upside this upcoming season.

Rex Grossman Admits He Was Unprepared

Good God, this is the starting QB of my beloved Chicago Bears?

Grossman recently admitted that he didn't prepare 100% for the Packers game on New Year's Eve. Ok, let me get this straight Rex. You're still on the hot seat and don't have much job security. This is the last regular season game for 2 weeks before starting in the playoffs, meaning this is your last chance to get that final tuneup in before the games really count. You're playing the Packers, a team that could provide the Bears with their only two wins all season, and numerous Bears fans would consider the season a success. What do you do? Not prepare well for the game and give us a stat line of 2-12 with 3 INTs and 0 TDs for a QB rating of 0.0. Rex, I didn't play and I had the same QB rating as you sitting in a damn chair watching the game. So did the guy next to me, and the girl behind me hossing all the food on the counter.

I didn't think you could do anything more to put yourself in the fans' doghouse, but you managed. Not preparing for a momentum game against the bitterest of bitter rivals is the worst possible thing you could do to alienate a fanbase. I wish our defense was healthy. Wrecks Grossman indeed.

Fantasy Impact: Don't draft Rex Grossman. Don't submit a waiver claim for Rex Grossman. Ever. If you're in a playoff fantasy pool and Rex Grossman is the only QB left for you to use, pencil your dog's name in.

Arizona Close To Acquiring Randy Johnson

Looks like this trade is all but done. The teams have submitted the trade's parameters to the commissioner's office, and the last hurdle to clear is Arizona's 2008 extension to Johnson, which isn't expected to be a problem. The Yankees reportedly will receive Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Alberto Gonzalez, and a minor league pitcher to be named later. Vizcaino is a quality arm in the bullpen who can pitch the 7th inning, but his ratios will obviously rise heading into the AL, specifically the AL East. He'll probably stay in middle relief and never claim a prominent role in the Yankee's bullpen. The other prospects aren't anyone of note, but the big story is that the Yankees will save roughly $18 million with the deal. I never thought I'd see the Yankees make a deal that would save them money. This is simply just rectifying a problem they brought on themselves, though. The Yankees made a big mistake acquiring him anyways by hoping he could turn in one last ace season for them, especially at what they were paying him. At his age, he just isn't what he used to be.

Fantasy Impact: Johnson's ERA and WHIP will drop, while his K-rate will rise heading back to the NL, but he'll lose a few wins. He's going from MLB's best offensive division with great hitter's ballparks (NY, BOS, TOR most notably) to possibly MLB's worst offensive division (LAD, SD, SF). Also of note is the great infield defense the Diamondbacks boast...just look at Brandon Webb's career year last season. Johnson's more a flyball pitcher these days since his slider doesn't bite like it once did, though. It's definitely a boost for Johnson's value, but his injury-risk remains rather high. His newfound NL-related upside is probably worth being a 3rd starter for your fantasy team, but don't count on him staying off the DL. He'll probably end up a bit overrated come draft day due to name recognition.

BCS vs. Playoffs, Round One Billion

As has been the case since the BCS was created, this is the time of year where college football enthusiasts debate the heated topic of what to do about the college football postseason. The number of bowls seems to grow each year, including more and more mediocre teams that the vast majority of college football fans don't care too much about.

The main problem behind a college football playoff is that there is so much money wrapped up in these bowls with the corporate sponsorships and all the advertising that occurs during each game. Long gone are the days where bowls were simply named The Sugar Bowl, although I've been clamoring for a Chlorox Toilet Bowl for a while now. We can use the BCS computing system to follow the two worst teams in the NCAA and pit them against each other. It'd probably end up being a pretty competitive game. If nothing else, it'd be better than watching Lloyd Carr get outcoached in yet another nationally televised UM bowl game disaster. Thanks Lloyd, for wasting all that talent.

I have a hybrid solution that could work. Let them still have the 25 bowl games that few people care about, and start up an 8 team playoff. Let the BCS stay and determine the top 8 teams as they usually do. Those 8 teams will engage in a playoff, with #1 vs. #8, #2 vs. #7, etc and advance the teams as you usually would in a tournament bracket. Pick a corporate sponsor for each round, so that Tostitos (Fiesta Bowl), Allstate (Sugar Bowl), FedEx (Orange Bowl), and Citi (Rose Bowl) all still get to sponsor a huge college football game. This would also open up 3 additional sponsors since there would be 7 games total. They can also rotate the sponsors between the rounds each year so that they each get a chance to sponsor the championship game once every 7 years, or just let the previous 4 rotate to keep them happy as they are now. A problem I see with this is the #9 and #10 teams complaining about not being in the top 8, but no matter what you do, there will be debate about the fringe teams. Another problem I see is a smaller team like Boise State going undefeated without getting into the top 8, like what happened this year. Perhaps the BCS can be tweaked to give a team's final record, or more specifically an undefeated record, a little more importance and thus a boost in the final rankings.

I personally feel that it's only a matter of time before some sort of playoff gets established because there's just too much talk about it, but I feel a hybrid solution of some sort will be necessary to keep the bowl season alive. Too many coaches rely on pointing to bowl game appearances on their resume to completely eliminate this facet of the college football postseason.

ND Joke

Read a good joke today.

Q: What does Notre Dame and Marijuana have in common?

A: Both usually get smoked in bowls.

Haha.

Cardinals, Raiders, and Dolphins Coaching Vacancies

All three of these teams share similar traits: quality defensive parts in place without an offensive direction.

The Cardinals D-Coordinator Clancy Pendergast showed some potential with his unit this year, but ultimately injuries derailed the progress they started to show. He runs an aggressive style of defense that should continue to improve as they add talent. By firing Dennis Green and retaining Pendergast, the Cardinals front office has shown that they're happy with the direction the defense is going, and that they'll most likely be looking the hardest at an offensive minded head coach. They'll need to add some quality players to their offensive line, namely a tackle. I'm sure Wisconsin's OT Joe Thomas is high on their draft board, but I'm not sure he'll fall to them. They should move Leonard Davis back to guard, his natural position, assuming they resign him. He's been their best offensive lineman of the past few season, and their lack of talent along the line necessitated the move to tackle. The problem is that he's now a free agent, and if he convinces another team that he'll play a quality LT, he'll price himself well beyond what Arizona would pay him as a guard. Cam Cameron's name is high on their list, and they should really inquire about Mike Martz. Given the heart condition that befell Martz at the end of his tenure in St. Louis, I'm not sure if he's ready to go back to being a head coach, but he'd be a perfect fit to mold Leinart. Given what he got out of Roy Williams and more impressively Mike Furrey this past year, could you imagine the numbers Leinart, Fitzgerald, and Boldin would put up? Edge is already a solid receiving back, and I'm sure Martz would utilize him well. Cameron wouldn't be a bad idea either to mold Leinart given the success story he now has under his belt with Phillip Rivers, although he runs more of a run-first offense.

Al Davis is the real coach killer, not Michael Vick. He's notoriously hard to work with, and it shows by the coaching carosel that's existed in Oakland for years. The Raiders had a very impressive turnaround on the defensive side of the ball, and Rob Ryan deserves a lot of credit. Derrick Burgess was an excellent acquisition, Warren Sapp had a rebound year, and their secondary was among the NFL's best all year long. Little known Nnamdi Asomougha might just be the best cover corner not named Champ Bailey. That being said, they are an absolute disaster on the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Brooks was not good, Andrew Walter continues failing to impress, Randy Moss quit, Jerry Porter quit a year ago, and their offensive line, namely Robert Gallery, is a mess. With a good, young defense in place and an up-and-coming defensive coordinator running that show, they will undoubtedly look for a head coach who can turn this offensive wasteland around. Whoever they choose will be in for quite the restoration project, but with the #1 pick and LaMont Jordan aiding him, he'll have a few options to get started with.

The Dolphins also have a quality defense, but it's an aging one as Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas push past 30 years old. The key to their run defense, Keith Traylor, is almost 37. Due to Saban's departure, they have their whole chain of command left to be worked out. Their offense is the true problem with Culpepper still rehabbing his knee, so deciding their 2007 signal caller is their most important question. They have a very talented RB in Ronnie Brown, and Chris Chambers was possibly the most under-utilized player in all of football last year. Randy McMichael remains a quality pass-catching TE, and Marty Booker proved that he's still a reliable 2nd WR. Cleo Lemon flashed some potential in the last few games, perhaps making Harrington expendable. Hudson Houck, the offensive line coach, is one of the leagues best and has turned around several careers, most recently L.J. Shelton this past season. The pieces are in place; they just need to find the right person to put them together and use them correctly. The offense should really focus around Ronnie Brown and use him to open up the defense for McMichael and Chambers, so Cameron might be a great fit here.

Fantasy Impact: All owners or potential drafters of Leinart, Edge, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Jordan, Moss, Brown, Chambers, and McMichael should keep a close eye on the developments concerning the head coaching positions for these teams. Given all of them favor an offensive minded head coach, the right one could really boost the value of these players from where they are right now. Just look what Scott Linehan's departure from his offensive coordinator position with Miami did to Brown and Chambers, and how his acquisition by St. Louis boosted Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson.

LaDainian Tomlinson Named NFL's Offensive MVP

Probably the only thing this NFL season that didn't surprise anyone. LT accounted for 33 TDs (28 rushing, 3 receiving, 2 passing) on the year, broke the scoring record formerly held by Paul Hornung without the benefit of kicking FGs and XPs, and in general terrorized almost every single opponent he faced this year. In a season where the Chargers used Phillip Rivers, who had never started an NFL game before, and defenses geared up even more to shut him down without the threat of Drew Brees, he still couldn't be contained. He had a stretch of 10 games this year in which he accounted for 30 TDs, and had 8 straight games of multiple TDs. He led the NFL in rushing with 1815 yards.

The Chargers don't abuse him. He's only carried the ball 350 times twice in his career, which is somewhat of an upper benchmark number used to determine RB wear and tear. LT barely touches the ball in the preseason, if at all, which is something more teams should do with a prized RB considering the wear and tear they endure each season. There's no point in adding 20+ extra hits to your RB in games that don't matter, especially if they're familiar with the system. LT is especially adept at using his body lean to deflect hits, so you rarely see someone get a clean shot on him. This helps explain his unprecedented durability for someone who touches the ball so often each season. There is nothing he can't do, although I'm not sure how good of a blocker he is considering how often he's used as a receiver out of the backfield. I had the honor of watching Walter Payton while growing up, but LT is even more explosive and is a bigger threat in the passing game. We are currently witnessing the greatest all-around RB to ever play in the NFL, so enjoy him while he plays.

Fantasy Impact: If you had LT on your team this year, as I did on all 3 of mine, you probably did some serious damage in your league. His durability is unprecedented, but after 6 years of 400+ touches you start to wonder if he'll begin to show signs of wearing down. Regardless of that, he's so incredibly consistent from year to year that he'll be the unanimous #1 pick in fantasy leagues next year, although expectations should probably drop back down to ~1800 total yards and 12-16 TDs. Plus with Michael Turner around, owners have an outstanding handcuff who would provide great value if LT ever got hurt, and a quality backup RB is always good news to give the star RB a break during games. With Rivers' continued maturation, Gates' dominance at the TE position, and the emergence of Vincent Jackson, the Chargers offense should remain potent enough to give LT plenty of TD opportunities. Keep an eye on Cam Cameron's status this offseason as he's being rumored for the Cardinals and Falcons coaching vacancies. His departure wouldn't be great news for the offense as a whole as he's done a wonderful job with them the past several years.

Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Sugar Bowl - Russell vs. Quinn

I'd like to award the MVP of the Sugar Bowl to the BCS at-large bid of Notre Dame.

Seriously, who the hell thought this was actually going to be a game? Notre Dame got smoked by the only two teams in LSU's class that they played this year. I can only hope this spanking combined with their 9 straight bowl losses will prevent the BCS from giving them automatic bids in the future.

I said going into this game that this would be a great showcase for the NFL scouts to see the two best QB prospects go head to head. Now the playing field wasn't exactly even as LSU's defense was far superior and LSU was essentially playing a home game, but even then Russell looks to be the much better prospect. This could give him a Vince Young type catapult into a top draft spot in the 2006 draft. He has an absolute cannon for an arm and also possesses deceptive mobility given his 6'6, 230 pound frame. The situation between these two QBs is eerily similar to Leinart-Young last year. Quinn, like Leinart, played in a very pro-friendly offensive system surrounded by quality WR talent. He's a pure pocket passer and spent several years underneath a coach with NFL experience. Russell, like Young, has outstanding raw skills, albeit he's not nearly the threat Young is running the football. Quinn is better than he played tonight, although his struggles this year against the three quality defenses he played is cause for concern. 24-48, 234 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs versus UM, 22-45, 274 yards, 3 TDs versus USC, and 15-35, 149 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs versus LSU. Still, he remains a quality QB prospect, although probably a bit overrated.

I'm sure scouts from the Raiders and Lions were watching this game intently. Russell could breathe life into an Oakland offense desparate for a QB of the future and into the suicidal fan base. The Raiders defense really came into its own this year, so there's no doubt in my mind they'll look for offense come draft day. Andrew Walter is not the answer, and Aaron Brooks suffers from some sort of mental retardation. Promises of drafting Russell might keep Moss interested in staying in Oakland, although it's probably too late. Moss is a much better fit on a team primed for a playoff run than a young, rebuilding team anyways. I don't think he'd be any good for Russell's development. Since Jerry Porter is as good as gone, if Moss leaves that will leave the Raiders bereft of WR talent, so I'm sure they'll take a hard look at Calvin Johnson. Barring a meltdown at the combine, Russell should enter as the favorite for the #1 pick, so if the Raiders settle on Johnson they'd be smart to move down a spot or two. Regardless, it's Al Davis we're talking about, so who the hell knows.

As far as Detroit is concerned, Quinn strikes me as more of a Martz kind of QB. He seems to prefer the standard pocket passer rather than a raw athlete at the QB position as evidenced by his history with Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna. I'm not sure he'd know what to do with an athlete like Russell. Martz seems dedicated to Kitna for another year, and given the extreme complexity of his offense, it'd allow him to develop Quinn on the sidelines for a year. This is Detroit and Matt Millen, though, so they'll probably draft Calvin Johnson and hope he turns out more like Roy Williams and less like Charles Rogers and Fat Mike Williams. How does that moron still have a damn job anyways??

Fantasy Impact: None, at the moment. I don't see either of these QBs getting much playing time other than at the end of their first season as they'll probably be drafted onto teams where they won't have to start immediately. Russell looks to be a better bet for dynasty leagues, however, depending on the offenses they're drafted into.

Nick Saban To Alabama

As Terrell Owens and others before him have proved time and time again, talent will always have a job. How long does this guy get to change his mind before he pays for his lack of dedication to a particular program? Here's his history:

In 1995, Saban headed to Michigan State, the first major stepping stone in his career after previous coaching stints at Syracuse, West Virginia, Ohio State, and Navy in some capacity. He helped turn around a program mired in NCAA infractions which culminated in a 10-2 season, his last, in 1999. After declaring his allegiance to MSU, he jumped ship to join LSU. I didn't mind that sort of decision because all coaches use success at "lesser" programs to build their resume in order to land a job at a college football powerhouse.

He took over a LSU team in the midst of a downwards landslide, but combining the talent the school still had along with his coaching prowess, he launched them back into the national championship race, culiminating with a national title in 2003. Saban spent one more season at LSU in 1994 and finished a disappointing 9-3 after starting the season ranked #4. He then left his self-proclaimed dream job only 4 years later to take the Miami Dolphins head coaching job.

He's done a solid job with the Dolphins, leading them to a 9-7 record in 2005, which included the controversial decision to allow Ricky Williams to return to the team after quitting on them a year before. I guess no one knows a quitter quite like another quitter, huh? After signing Daunte Culpepper this offseason, the Dolphins were talked about as the favorites for the AFC East title. Unfortunately, Culpepper's knee never healed, and given the severity of the injury which included multiple ligament tears this was not surprising. Further magnifying this decision was that they didn't sign Brees due to injury concerns about his shoulder. I know in hindsight it looks like a horrible decision, but at the time signing the QB with the injury not related to his throwing arm seemed like the wiser decision.

Back on topic, he just left the Dolphins to head back to the college ranks and take the Alabama job, which was made official this morning. That makes 3 major coaching changes in the past 11 years, which seems a bit ridiculous considering he wasn't fired or let go at any of them. He left MSU for his "dream job" at LSU, and then turned his back on his dream job when offered the money, prestige, and power he wanted with the Dolphins organization. 2 years later he bolts the job he left his dream job for to head to Alabama.

To me, this seems unprecedented in football. I know money talks, and that programs don't show loyalty either to the contracts coaches sign, but Saban keeps bouncing back and forth to the highest bidder and has destroyed the Dolphins chain of command with his latest move. The thing is that most coach's contracts aren't terminated unless there's a good reason for it to be done, whether it's through poor team performance or poor coach behavior. Saban just bolted for more power, more prestige, more money, or some combination each time. The Dolphins believed in Saban and they were willing to give him ample time to get the team turned around. They gave him the personel power he craved in order to have a large amount of control with everything related to the Dolphins football team, and he quit on them because after 2 years he changed his mind on which level of football he wanted to coach.

I feel bad for Dolphins fans. Ricky Williams, their entire offense at the time, quit on them after the 2003 season. He returned to mixed fan reactions in 2005, only to be lost again for the following year due to another illegal substance suspension. Their prized 2006 offseason acquisition, Daunte Culpepper, was rushed back to the field before he was ready. Now, their promising young coach has quit on them after only 2 season, leaving a destroyed chain of command in his wake. For the sake of the Alabama program, I hope he's found what he's looking for, at least until the next lucrative offer comes his way.

Fantasy Impact: Culpepper is already a high risk commodity for 2007, but Saban was committed to him. The new coach might not offer that same sort of commitment. Given Harrington's sub-par performance taking over for him, he's not a risk to take the job. Cleo Lemon had an solid finish and at least solidified a backup job, if not an audition for the starting job next year should Culpepper suffer another setback. I think this solidifies the value of Ronnie Brown. With Saban gone, it makes it far less likely the Dolphins try to bring back Ricky Williams again as he claimed they would do, which would have created a timeshare situation similar to 2005, dulling the value of both players. Chambers was a disaster last year with Harrington at the helm, but a healthy Culpepper would create a bigtime boost in his 2007 value and solidify him as a solid sleeper as he'll likely come valued as no greater than a WR3.

Introduction

Welcome to the Sports Observatory. I only follow pro football, pro baseball, and college football in that order, but naming it the Pro Football / Pro Baseball / College Football Observatory would be assinine, plus the profootballprobaseballcollegefootballobservatory.blogspot.com URL is flat-out obnoxious. Plus who knows what random sports news story I'll read that'll motivate me to post, so I'll keep my options open.