James Shields: The unlikely breakout candidate that few have heard about. So far Shields has posted 3 Ws, 45 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The ERA doesn't match the WHIP, so if Shields can continue to limit his walks and posted a strong BAA, he'll bring that down some. That he's in the AL East will hurt having to face NY, Boston, and Toronto multiple times, but he's added a few MPH to his fastball, and has a devastating changeup, and those added MPH will make his changeup that much better. Expect solid W numbers, a strong K rate, and an ERA under 4 for this kid if he keeps it up.
Tom Gordon/Brett Myers: Tom Gordon heads to the DL with a sore shoulder, so Brett Myers is now Philly's new closer. If someone in your league didn't hang onto him to see what happened with his situation, grab him immediately. Myers had the stuff to be a staff ace, so he most certainly has the stuff to be an ace closer as well. If Myers dominates as a closer, expect Gordon to possibly come back to a setup role. This makes Philly's decision to move him to the bullpen a little easier to swallow, but it was still the wrong move.
Jon Papelbon: Papelbon was held out of a save chance last night despite not working the previous day. It's officially time to worry about the health of his shoulder given this. Mike Timlin is on the DL, so J.C. Romero got the save last night, but he's not a long term answer should Papelbon head to the DL. Keep a close eye on Hideki Okajima as he's already earned a save, and could become the closer should Papelbon miss extended time. Okajima had pitched 3 out of the previous 4 days, so Romero likely only got the call because Okajima needed a day off.
Mike Mussina: Well, I guess I should have started him last night, but it's always best to wait an appearance before activating a hurt pitcher. He threw 5 strong innings last night and looks to be in good health, so he's fine to use from here on out. His return is great news for a Yankees rotation ravaged with injuries.
Mariano Rivera: 2 days and 2 saves, although he did allow 2 hits last night. Now's still a good opportunity to buy low on him, so make sure to point out his ghastly ERA to this point and see if you can land an elite closer at a discount. He seems to be turning the corner.
Moises Alou: He went down again with some sort of ailment, so if you've been using him, get him out of your lineup. Anyone drafting him this season knew he'd be in and out of the lineup, so he's likely a reserve/matchup outfielder anyways. His knee is likely bothering him again, so assume he'll probably miss this weekend's games until something official is announced. He was actually hitting very well until the injury, so he's worth stashing if you have room, especially given the lineup he hits in.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Soriano vs. Gonzalez, Pt 2, Beckett Wins Again, Oliver with 10 Ks?
Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez: Well, round 2 goes to Rafael Soriano as he notched the save last evening. The thing to note here is that Howard and Utley were due up in the 8th inning, so that's where Gonzalez pitched, and then Soriano came in for the 9th and the save. Again, nothing definitive can be taken from this as it was obvious that Gonzalez was better suited to pitch the 8th inning with the tough lefties up. Bobby Cox is a strategic manager, and I believe he's smart enough to understand that matchups are a key part of baseball, and with Wickman out, a committee is the most likely scenario.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Hughes Hurt, Greinke and Burnett Suck, Sabathia Doesn't, Sheets Ks?
Some random player notes:
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Bob Wickman To The DL
The Atlanta Braves have placed closer Bob Wickman on the DL.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
Vacation
Well, I just got back from vacation and plan to post on almost a daily basis now. I've gone a while without posting anything, so most of the news I've caught up on when I returned is outdated. At any rate, here's a few random notes:
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
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