Sunday, January 11, 2009

Divisional Round Summary

BAL @ TEN

Summary: The Titans had their way with the Ravens defense in the first half, specifically thanks to the speed and versatility of Chris Johnson. Unfortunately for them, a LenDale White fumble stalled their final drive inside the 20 yard line. I could also mention the Kerry Collins INT, but if he had simply taken the sack, which was the only alternative, they would have punted, and the Ravens probably would have started their drive in about the same area. Chris Johnson's ankle injury took him out of the game, and the Titans offense went with him. Without his speed and play-making ability, they slowed to a halt and barely moved the ball in the 2nd half, and the Ravens took advantage, scoring 10 points for a 13-10 victory. I have no doubt in my mind the Titans would have won had Chris Johnson not been hurt.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Chris Johnson. Johnson posted 16 fantasy points in only a half, and his ankle injury kept him from having an even bigger game. Given his team was eliminated, he was an even better choice.

Don't Use: LenDale White. White actually posted solid yardage totals, but only produced 6 fantasy points with the lost fumble. Johnson's injury had a positive impact on White's value, else he would have been completely worthless. Still, he was a bad play in any circumstance.

AZ @ CAR

Summary: The unquestioned shocker of the weekend. Not only did Arizona upset Carolina, but they stomped them. Carolina's game plan was obvious on the first drive...pound the ball down Arizona's throat. However, thanks to a Delhomme fumble deep in Carolina territory on the 2nd drive, Arizona posted a 2nd TD, and went up 14-7. At that point, down only 7, Carolina inexplicably abandoned the running game, and all hell broke loose with Delhomme consistently throwing the ball to the wrong team. 5 INTs later, Carolina was eliminated.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Jake Delhomme. This proves, again, that match ups don't meant everything. Delhomme was a mediocre fantasy play all season long, and he went above and beyond in this one. Horrible.

Don't Use: Anquan Boldin. Since fantasy playoff lineups are often submitted in their entirety before the first game starts, this was a good call as Boldin ended up being inactive for the game.

PHI @ NYG

Summary: Most of what I said came true, as McNabb played solid football despite the bad winds, and the absence of play-makers in the Giants passing game completely sunk New York. However, the game did NOT come down to Westbrook's running ability as he only managed 2 yards a carry, and did nothing inside the red zone. However, the Eagles passing defense was more than enough against the completely overmatched Giants passing attack. Jacobs ran well, but Ward didn't, and the passing game offered zero support. I'm pissed I bet the spread instead of taking the money line on the Eagles.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Brent Celek. He only caught 3 passes, but since 1 was a TD on a great playaction play, he turned in a solid afternoon.

Don't Use: Eli Manning. He was horrible all game long and posted terrible stats.

SD @ PIT

Summary: Simply put, the bye week finally helped one team...Pittsburgh. The story about Big Ben's concussion was overblown, and Parker exhibited fresh legs. With a healthy and balanced attack, Pittsburgh brushed off a slow start and marched all over the field on the Chargers defense. Pittsburgh's D also settled down after a bad first drive and mostly dominated until garbage time. The rough Pittsburgh field and stingy rush defense completely bottled up Sproles, allowing the Pittsburgh D to pin their ears back and come after Rivers all 2nd half.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Vincent Jackson. Jackson, like Celek above, made the most of his receptions by making one a 41 yard TD catch on the first drive. He was mostly absent after that, but unfortunately that seems to be Jackson's mode of operation. He was a nice play this week thanks to the TD, and also being eliminated.

Don't Use: Ben Roethlisberger. He actually posted middle-of-the-road numbers despite non-impressive stats this week, so I can't take credit for this one.


Conclusion: I mostly avoided making a call on the winners, and went 2/4 on bets. I went 3/4 on the Sneaky Plays, and 3/4 on the Don't Uses. A slight improvement on the fantasy calls.