Today marked the first trade made this NFL offseason, with the Detroit Lions sending CB Dre Bly to the Denver Broncos for RB Tatum Bell and OT George Foster.
Denver is a big winner here, receiving CB Dre Bly. He's a former Pro-Bowl cornerback who fell out of favor with the Detroit coaching staff after Rod Marinelli implemented the Cover 2 last season. Bly is much more of a man-to-man, playmaking CB than he is a Cover 2 guy, and Denver pounced on the opportunity to replace the late Darrent Williams. Bly should experience a career resurgence within the new defense, and adding Bly to Champ Bailey will provide the Broncos with possibly the most talented CB duo in the league. After Manning torched the Broncos two years ago with a 400+ yard game in the first round of the playoffs, Denver has made it a priority to maintain a stronger defensive backfield, and this is just another example of that effort. Plus, they weren't going to start Tatum Bell or George Foster next year anyways, and this deal looks even better when you consider what exactly they gave up.
This creates a hole in their backfield, and it should be interesting to see how they fill that hole. Mike Bell is a capable backup, but he's not a starting RB in the NFL. With names like Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and Ricky Williams (assuming he's re-instated) available in the trade market, the Broncos might not be done dealing yet.
Detroit is helped by this trade as well. Kevin Jones suffered a severe Lisfranc foot fracture in week 14 last season, and his availability for the first part of the 2007 is in doubt. I've read varying reports on his timetable, but this is a tough injury to predict a recover schedule for. Tatum Bell gives them an explosive, but unreliable RB that will give KJ time to heal. Bell has always had breakaway speed, and playing on turf will suit his strengths. However, he's dealt with a myriad of minor injuries that have kept him out of several games seemingly each year he's been in the league. Plus, he had fumble problems last year as well. Mike Martz should help revive his career somewhat, but Tatum has one year left on his deal, and when KJ gets healthy I don't expect him to have any sort of major role. George Foster is a big, young OT. He didn't really suit the zone blocking scheme that the Broncos used as he isn't either small or quick. He could prove to be the more valuable property from this trade as he's only 26 years old and could prove far more valuable in a non-zone blocking offensive scheme. Still, with all that being said, they could have done better in return for the former Pro-Bowler Bly.
Detroit has two offensive tackles in their mid-20s in Jeff Backus and George Foster, so the rumors that they were interested in Joe Thomas with the 2nd overall pick can now be put to rest. With KJ and Tatum Bell, they don't need Adrian Peterson either. Free agency might provide another clue to the puzzle if they land Kevin Curtis as is rumored. Curtis would be a great fit opposite Roy Williams, plus he knows Martz's offensve well from St. Louis. If they sign Curtis, Calvin Johnson isn't an option either. Unless Martz falls in love with one of the top QB prospects, the Lions are a prime candidate to trade down. Depending on how far they trade down, they might still be able to land one of Quinn and Russell while accumulating more value for their pick.
Fantasy Impact: Bly gives Denver another playmaker in the secondary, so their defensive unit gets a slight boost. Until they can rush the passer consistently, however, they'll remain behind the elite, start-every-week defensive units like Chicago and Baltimore. They'll still hold opponents to less points and less yards than most of the defenses and can be used most weeks, though.
Tatum Bell, if he avoids injury and the fumble bug, should be a nice RB2 value in Detroit until KJ returns. He'll be a good mid-round pick depending on how much time KJ is slated to miss. Martz will find creative ways to get him the ball when he's in the game and utilize his gamebreaking speed. I expect if he's successful, he'll maintain some sort of role when KJ returns, which is more of a hinderance on KJ's value than it is a boost to Tatum's value. KJ is without question the better RB when healthy, so Tatum's value will be directly linked to how much time KJ misses. It's definitely not the best news for KJ's owners in keeper leagues, but like I said before, Tatum is only signed for one season, so don't go overboard yet. KJ is better suited as a RB2 if healthy with Tatum around rather than a RB1, however.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
NFL Combine
The NFL Combine is like big company CEO's releasing their quarterly earnings...all the NFL bigwigs are intently watching the outcome for each player and adjusting their draft boards accordingly. I wanted to highlight the 4 biggest offensive stars, and thus the 4 most likely to make an impact in fantasy leagues.
Big Winners:
Calvin Johnson, WR, GT - Calvin ran a blazing 4.35 at the combine. Now, 4.35 isn't "blazing" as a number by itself, but considering the guy is 6'5, 239 pounds, it sure is "blazing" in a relative sense. Guys that big just don't run that fast, Calvin Johnson excluded. The only real question about this man heading into the draft was exactly how fast he was, and that question was answered in a resounding fashion. He is probably the best WR prospect to come out in my lifetime, and the surest bet for big NFL production since Larry Fitzgerald, who was also considered a "can't miss" prsopect himself. Johnson is even bigger and faster than Fitzgerald while matching his hard working, solid character reputation. The only question left is which team he'll be putting up big numbers for.
Given his 40 time, he just made himself available to the Raiders with the 1st overall pick. If he stood out this much at QB or RB, he'd be the surefire #1 pick. It's only that he plays WR that there's any question about where exactly he'll go in the top 5. Given the Raiders are likely to dump Moss and possibly Porter as well, that would leave Curry and Gabriel, and neither are a #1 guy. The Raiders might convince themselves to give Walter competition in the 2nd round and take the best player on the draft board in Calvin Johnson. The Lions pick 2nd, but I can't see them taking Johnson. If he falls to #2, I'm sure they'll entertain each and every phone call as I expect them to make a hard run at Kevin Curtis in free agency. Cleveland won the coin flip over Tampa Bay for the #3 pick, but they have bigger needs than WR, although combining Johnson with Braylon Edwards could help make up for the fact neither Frye nor Anderson are going to be stars. Tampa is #4, and Gruden would be elated if he fell to them. They have a bigtime need for a young WR.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Peterson ran a 4.40 40 yard dash, cementing him as the best RB in the draft. After an amazing freshman year, an ankle injury his sophomore year and a broken collarbone his junior year have somewhat derailed what might have been a record breaking 3 years at Oklahoma. Despite those 2 fluky injuries, his great size (6'2, 218) and speed combination make him an elite prospect. He put up big numbers in college when he was healthy. There's a bit of concern about his durability given those injuries, but like I mentioned before both injuries were more fluky than anything else. Further proof of that was Peterson suffered no repeat ankle problems his junior year.
Cleveland would love to take him at #3 as they have the biggest need at the RB position of the teams in the top 4, where Peterson will most likely be drafted. I doubt Oakland is considering him at all, and while the Lions don't know Kevin Jones' availability for the 2007 season, he had too strong of a 2006 season for them to seriously consider a RB here, especially given they have much bigger needs such as the OL (Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin?). If he slips past Cleveland somehow, I imagine the Texans will be calling any team official with a pulse on a team ahead of them to move up and take him since none of those teams have a RB need and would entertain the idea of trading down a few spots.
Slight Winner:
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - Brady Quinn showed up ripped and tossed up 24 reps of the 225 pound bench press. That's an impressive number for a QB, and combining that strength with his 6'5 frame and the pro offense tutiledge he received from Charlie Weiss, and Quinn might have put himself back into the running to be the top QB taken in the draft.
That being said, however, the Raiders pick 1st and Al Davis loves pure athletes, so I have to think Jamarcus Russell is still #1 on their board. However, Quinn would make a great QB for the Lions. I'm sure Mike Martz would really like to add him to run their offense as they don't have a surefire QB of the future behind Jon Kitna. He can say all he wants about Josh McCown and Dan Orlovsky, but they aren't in Quinn's league. Quinn's intelligence and advanced knowlege of a pro style offense will ease his transition into the NFL, and Kitna is set to run the Lions again this year, so he'll have a year to study the playbook and practice before they want him on the field. The Lions are playing coy regarding the QB position so far, but I'm sure Quinn is very high on their draft board.
Slight Loser:
Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Russell showed up to the NFL combine at 6'5 1/2 and 265 pounds. People said he lacked muscle definition for a player of his size, and that he "looked more like Charles Barkley than a football player". Combining this with the contrast of how Brady Quinn looked, and some NFL officials may wonder about the work ethic difference between the two. Given Russell's tremendous raw skills, I'm not sure how much stock will be put into this.
As I mentioned before, Russell's skills seem to fit the type of player Al Davis likes, so I think he'll maintain the edge to go #1 overall. I can't see Martz wanting Russell at #2, so if Oakland for some reason decides to go with Calvin Johnson, Russell might have to wait a bit before being selected. There's some rumor that Cleveland would be interested if he falls to them, but with Frye and Anderson already on board, that seems a bit of a stretch. Granted neither Frye nor Anderson possess the potential Russell does, but Romeo Crennell is on the hot seat and I think Peterson would make more of a 1st year impact for them than either QB would.
All in all, I think this was more Johnson and Peterson confirming their status as the elite talent at their respective positions than doing much to shake up the top of the NFL draft. They both did so in an impressive fashion, however, proving how much talent differential there is between them and the rest of the players at their position. The fact is that Oakland and Detroit both need a QB of the future more than anything, Cleveland needs a great RB more than anything, and Tampa Bay needs a young WR more than anything. But I digress, as the NFL Draft always presents us with a few surprises and I don't put much stock into mock drafts whatsoever. Plus, Quinn and Russell still have more throwing drills to do in their pro days as they attempt to become the clearcut #1 QB in this draft. All 4 of these players would make at least some sense on any of the top 4 teams, with the exception of Peterson going to Tampa Bay. I suspect Quinn is the only one with a chance to tumble out of the top 4, but he has a Notre Dame pro day left to prove he belongs with the elite prospects.
Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson will probably make a nice WR3 investment this season, although the investment still resides on which offense he'll be playing for. Usually fantasy football players use the "3rd year theory" with WRs, but guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston prove that rookie WRs can make a profound impact on your fantasy team. Peterson will most likely be a mid-level RB2, even in Cleveland. Quinn and Russell will likely have no fantasy value their first seasons, but will be drafted high in dynasty leagues. Their order will most likely be determined by the teams they land on as well.
Big Winners:
Calvin Johnson, WR, GT - Calvin ran a blazing 4.35 at the combine. Now, 4.35 isn't "blazing" as a number by itself, but considering the guy is 6'5, 239 pounds, it sure is "blazing" in a relative sense. Guys that big just don't run that fast, Calvin Johnson excluded. The only real question about this man heading into the draft was exactly how fast he was, and that question was answered in a resounding fashion. He is probably the best WR prospect to come out in my lifetime, and the surest bet for big NFL production since Larry Fitzgerald, who was also considered a "can't miss" prsopect himself. Johnson is even bigger and faster than Fitzgerald while matching his hard working, solid character reputation. The only question left is which team he'll be putting up big numbers for.
Given his 40 time, he just made himself available to the Raiders with the 1st overall pick. If he stood out this much at QB or RB, he'd be the surefire #1 pick. It's only that he plays WR that there's any question about where exactly he'll go in the top 5. Given the Raiders are likely to dump Moss and possibly Porter as well, that would leave Curry and Gabriel, and neither are a #1 guy. The Raiders might convince themselves to give Walter competition in the 2nd round and take the best player on the draft board in Calvin Johnson. The Lions pick 2nd, but I can't see them taking Johnson. If he falls to #2, I'm sure they'll entertain each and every phone call as I expect them to make a hard run at Kevin Curtis in free agency. Cleveland won the coin flip over Tampa Bay for the #3 pick, but they have bigger needs than WR, although combining Johnson with Braylon Edwards could help make up for the fact neither Frye nor Anderson are going to be stars. Tampa is #4, and Gruden would be elated if he fell to them. They have a bigtime need for a young WR.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Peterson ran a 4.40 40 yard dash, cementing him as the best RB in the draft. After an amazing freshman year, an ankle injury his sophomore year and a broken collarbone his junior year have somewhat derailed what might have been a record breaking 3 years at Oklahoma. Despite those 2 fluky injuries, his great size (6'2, 218) and speed combination make him an elite prospect. He put up big numbers in college when he was healthy. There's a bit of concern about his durability given those injuries, but like I mentioned before both injuries were more fluky than anything else. Further proof of that was Peterson suffered no repeat ankle problems his junior year.
Cleveland would love to take him at #3 as they have the biggest need at the RB position of the teams in the top 4, where Peterson will most likely be drafted. I doubt Oakland is considering him at all, and while the Lions don't know Kevin Jones' availability for the 2007 season, he had too strong of a 2006 season for them to seriously consider a RB here, especially given they have much bigger needs such as the OL (Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin?). If he slips past Cleveland somehow, I imagine the Texans will be calling any team official with a pulse on a team ahead of them to move up and take him since none of those teams have a RB need and would entertain the idea of trading down a few spots.
Slight Winner:
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - Brady Quinn showed up ripped and tossed up 24 reps of the 225 pound bench press. That's an impressive number for a QB, and combining that strength with his 6'5 frame and the pro offense tutiledge he received from Charlie Weiss, and Quinn might have put himself back into the running to be the top QB taken in the draft.
That being said, however, the Raiders pick 1st and Al Davis loves pure athletes, so I have to think Jamarcus Russell is still #1 on their board. However, Quinn would make a great QB for the Lions. I'm sure Mike Martz would really like to add him to run their offense as they don't have a surefire QB of the future behind Jon Kitna. He can say all he wants about Josh McCown and Dan Orlovsky, but they aren't in Quinn's league. Quinn's intelligence and advanced knowlege of a pro style offense will ease his transition into the NFL, and Kitna is set to run the Lions again this year, so he'll have a year to study the playbook and practice before they want him on the field. The Lions are playing coy regarding the QB position so far, but I'm sure Quinn is very high on their draft board.
Slight Loser:
Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Russell showed up to the NFL combine at 6'5 1/2 and 265 pounds. People said he lacked muscle definition for a player of his size, and that he "looked more like Charles Barkley than a football player". Combining this with the contrast of how Brady Quinn looked, and some NFL officials may wonder about the work ethic difference between the two. Given Russell's tremendous raw skills, I'm not sure how much stock will be put into this.
As I mentioned before, Russell's skills seem to fit the type of player Al Davis likes, so I think he'll maintain the edge to go #1 overall. I can't see Martz wanting Russell at #2, so if Oakland for some reason decides to go with Calvin Johnson, Russell might have to wait a bit before being selected. There's some rumor that Cleveland would be interested if he falls to them, but with Frye and Anderson already on board, that seems a bit of a stretch. Granted neither Frye nor Anderson possess the potential Russell does, but Romeo Crennell is on the hot seat and I think Peterson would make more of a 1st year impact for them than either QB would.
All in all, I think this was more Johnson and Peterson confirming their status as the elite talent at their respective positions than doing much to shake up the top of the NFL draft. They both did so in an impressive fashion, however, proving how much talent differential there is between them and the rest of the players at their position. The fact is that Oakland and Detroit both need a QB of the future more than anything, Cleveland needs a great RB more than anything, and Tampa Bay needs a young WR more than anything. But I digress, as the NFL Draft always presents us with a few surprises and I don't put much stock into mock drafts whatsoever. Plus, Quinn and Russell still have more throwing drills to do in their pro days as they attempt to become the clearcut #1 QB in this draft. All 4 of these players would make at least some sense on any of the top 4 teams, with the exception of Peterson going to Tampa Bay. I suspect Quinn is the only one with a chance to tumble out of the top 4, but he has a Notre Dame pro day left to prove he belongs with the elite prospects.
Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson will probably make a nice WR3 investment this season, although the investment still resides on which offense he'll be playing for. Usually fantasy football players use the "3rd year theory" with WRs, but guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston prove that rookie WRs can make a profound impact on your fantasy team. Peterson will most likely be a mid-level RB2, even in Cleveland. Quinn and Russell will likely have no fantasy value their first seasons, but will be drafted high in dynasty leagues. Their order will most likely be determined by the teams they land on as well.
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