RB1 Value Analysis Recap

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: What an odd year for LT, and crazily enough, he was worth a top 2 pick. I was right that 2008 was the year he would start to fade, although it was mostly due to a toe injury. The rare times he felt 100%, he looked like the old LT, but it was far too infrequent. Still, he finished 6th, and of the other 1st rounders, only AP finished ahead of him.

2) Adrian Peterson

ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 4th

Overview: AP looked like his usual dominant self for most of the season, playing in all 16 games and avoiding the injury bug. He led the league in rushing, and Frerotte's insertion into the lineup gave the Vikings some semblance of a passing attack for a while. He pretty much performed as expected.

3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th

Overview: In an odd way, Westbrook actually did live up to his draft position. Despite finishing 10th, only 3 other first rounders finished ahead of him, and if you handcuffed Buckhalter to him, you got some pretty good production in the games that Westbrook missed. Westbrook's injuries were certainly a problem as they hindered his production in a few games, and that certainly isn't going away.

4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 15th

Recap: Jackson actually produced pretty well, especially down the stretch, when he wasn't hurt. However, during the 4th quarter of his monster effort against Dallas, Jackson injured another leg muscle that cost him several games. He honestly shouldn't have been out there in a game that was over, but given the ineptitude of the STL coaching staff, you probably weren't surprised. However, those injuries, as I warned you about, didn't allow Jackson to be worth the high pick.

5) Joseph Addai

ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 38th

Overview: Bust. Addai played like crap, battled numerous nagging injuries again, and only post a couple serviceable games. Addai simply isn't a feature back, and I don't expect the Colts to fully trust him outside of a committee again.

6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Overview: Barber was a top RB until the Dallas team collapsed. Romo's injury allowed defenses to stack the box, and then after he returned, Barber suffered a toe injury that ruined the last 5 weeks of his season. Those who thought Barber would wear down could claim I told you so from the numbers and injury, but it was a freak injury and he was as strong as ever prior to the injury.

7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 14th

Recap: Gore was tearing it up until an ankle injury slowed him down considerably the last 5 weeks, including 2 missed games. He was a perfect all-around fit in Martz's offense and put up the numbers of an RB1 when he played. The injury derailed his season, but he certainly looked like a stud for most of the season.

8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 30th

Recap: Bust. LJ actually got off to a promising start against some weak defenses, but between the various off-the-field altercations, the suspension, and the poor performance, LJ simply never returned to form.

9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Overview: Portis was dominating the first half of the season, but the large workload it took him to get there caught up with him, and he faded badly down the stretch. Campbell's continued inconsistent play also hurt as teams loaded up against the run. Portis actually lived up to his draft status, especially if you replaced him down the stretch when he faded, but he wasn't undervalued given the slow finish.

10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 13th

Overview: Lynch put up a solid season, but the Bills fascination with Fred Jackson killed Lynch's upside. Jackson is clearly the favored 3rd down back, and he comes in far too often as a replacement for Lynch. There's no question that Jackson is talented, but Lynch is a better 1st/2nd down RB that should have received more carries. Lynch was a solid value pick, but not a difference maker that I thought he'd be.

11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 22nd

Overview: Grant started off very slow, but picked things up in the 2nd half of the season and finished relatively strong. TDs were a problem as he only scored 5 all season despite Green Bay having a powerful offense, and he was inconsistent as he offered nothing in the passing game until the final 3 games. He certainly wasn't RB1 material.

12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 35th

Overview: McGahee's season was a mess. His knee surgery cost him week 1, and then he was in and out of the lineup between various injuries and game planning decisions. He wasn't even an RB2 this year despite being drafted as an RB1.


RB1 Summary: I was pretty on par with most of my value analysis for the RB1s. I had a couple minor misses as my RB1 favorites Barber, Portis, and Gore hurt their "under valued" ratings with late season fades, and Westbrook was actually a solid pick. I definitely hit the busts of the group in Addai, LJ, Grant, and McGahee. Only 4 of the top 12 RBs finished in the top 12, which is pretty high turnover!

QB Value Analysis Recap

1) Tom Brady
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in week 1, ending his season immediately. If you avoided him, like I suggested, you avoided a disaster.

2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: Manning started off slowly, as expected, coming off of knee surgery. However, if you were patient with him, he turned in a 2nd half like you expected. You pretty much got what you drafted here: a slow start and a consistently good-great QB1 afterwards.

3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th.

Recap: Romo started off on fire, but then disaster struck with a pinkie injury, and TO started to take over the team with his bad attitude. Another good avoid call here.

4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 1st

Recap: Brees was a monster in 2008, and you could have techincally called him over-valued, as taking him in the 2nd round would have turned out OK, but he was perfect in the 3rd after nailing down 2 other top players.

5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Oops. Palmer looked out of synch early on, with CJ pretty much MIA, and then suffered a serious elbow injury that ended his season in week 4. This was a horrible call.

6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 19th

Recap: Big Ben's TD passes certainly dropped alright, to about half of his 2007 total. The Steelers' offense balanced out his somewhat flukish 2007 season as they had more success running the ball in the red zone, and Big Ben's pass attempts stayed very low. His offense line gave him poor protection as well.

7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Recap: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Anderson sucked and then lost his job. He simply doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL starter.

8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: As expected, Hasselbeck suffered without many playmakers around him, and then he suffered a back injury to boot which caused him to miss numerous games. Another good avoid call.

9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 7th.

Recap: McNabb was more appropriately valued than under valued, as things ended, but that was mostly due to a horrible stretch that resulted in his benching against Baltimore. It was the kick in the ass he needed as he closed very strong and tacked on an excellent playoff run. There's just no way I see him leaving Philly this offseason.

10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 13th.

Recap: The Giants were powered by their running game and defense all season, and Plaxico's rollercoaster ride combined with his shooting injury left Manning with very little receiving talent to work with. He was a solid backup and nothing more.

11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 4th.

Recap: Awesome. Cutler slung it all season long and racked up huge fantasy numbers. Despite some poor decision making and all the pressure that resided on his shoulders, he came through far more often than not for his fantasy owners and was an outstanding value.

12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Hot freakin vomit. The Rams just flat-out sucked and sunk every single player not named Steven Jackson. Bulger was in and out of the lineup and never had any rhythm. I should have taken the horrible talent behind Torry Holt into account here.

With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:

15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 3rd

Recap: Brett who? Rodgers was a legit stud QB from week 1, using the great receiving talent around him and a pass-happy offense to rack up great fantasy numbers. He even made Packers fans forget about Favre's toughness by playing through a separated throwing shoulder and not missing a beat. His future is very bright.

16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 20th

Recap: Matt Schaub had a rough start, then performed quite well when in the lineup, but missed some time due to various injuries. His durability continues to be a question mark, but there's no question the kid can play. He could be under valued again next year.

17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 21st.

Recap: Miss. Who needs to throw when your 2 RBs score all the time? He made great use of Steve Smith, but wasn't called on to do much passing with the running game working so well.

18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: While I still believe in Young's talent, his head is a freakin' mess. I don't think I need to recap what little of a season that he had, so suffice it to say that I wasn't on the mark at all here.

24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Jackson lost the job with poor play to Gus Frerotte, but actually was a huge help to owners who dared use him down the stretch in 2008, especially during week 16. He again looked horrible against Philly in the playoffs, and barring some unforseen offseason events, he shouldn't be a starter again in the NFL. The physical skills are undoubtedly there, but his head and accuracy are major problems. He doesn't know how to handle blitzes.

25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Smith never overcame the shoulder injuries that have derailed his career and missed the entire season.

QB Analysis Overall: Carson Palmer was a disaster, and a couple of my sleepers missed the mark by quite a bit, but overall I did quite well profiling the QBs. I forgot to make a late addition to this article for Kurt Warner, but I advised all to draft him as a risky QB1. That risk paid off, and then some. One huge omission was Phillip Rivers, whom I liked, but didn't dream he'd be the #2 QB. Next year I plan to do the top 24 QBs being drafted instead of just the starters.