Saturday, January 10, 2009
Divisional Round Playoff Thoughts
This round is much tougher.
BAL @ TEN
These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, early on, and TEN won a slugfest at Baltimore 13-10. One of several defensive battles this week, but this could be the finest. Baltimore hates when you try to run on them, and that's exactly what the Titans will spend most of the game trying to do. The key to this game is Joe Flacco. Baltimore this year reminds me a lot of the Steelers team that won the Super Bowl in early 2006. Ferocious defense, solid running game, and a rookie QB asked to manage the game and make a play here and there. Flacco isn't quite as mobile as Big Ben, but has a huge arm and mostly limits his mistakes. The problem is that McClain and McGahee aren't nearly what Parker and Bettis were. I'm leaning towards TEN in this one as they have a stronger offensive line, a veteran QB, and a much more dynamic backfield.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Chris Johnson. Most might avoid him this week thanks to the match up, but I think he's good for a big play at some point in this game, maybe two. This is the type of game where the Titans need to pull out all the stops to move the ball, and getting Johnson into space will be essential.
Don't Use: LenDale White. He might score, but he's going to do little to nothing in the yardage department. I expect Chris Johnson to be far more productive with his touches thanks to his versatility.
AZ @ CAR
These two teams hooked up once during the regular season, at Carolina, with the Panthers winning 27-23. Vegas certainly doesn't think the Cardinals have any sort of chance, favoring the Panthers by 10. Honestly, not much has changed since the first match up, except for two changes with the Cardinals. First, we have Boldin's injury, which should limit him. Second, we have the re-emergence of Edgerrin James, which helps balance out the Cardinals offense and should help offset the loss of Boldin somewhat. That being said, Carolina is simply too well balanced for the Cardinals to overcome, but while the Vegas line indicates it'll be somewhat of a blowout, I disagree.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Jake Delhomme. He has the best match up and the best weapons of the 4 mediocre QBs added by the 1st week byes, and therefore should post the best line as long as the Carolina running game doesn't dominate their scoring.
Don't Use: Anquan Boldin. If you didn't use him last round, like me, don't throw him in this round. He is honestly hurting, and while he'll give it a go, I think his job will be more as a decoy and that he will fall far short of playing a full game as if he were healthy.
PHI @ NYG
These two teams have hooked up twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The first time was a 36-31 scoring bananza that the Giants won, and the second was a 20-14 Philly victory during their late season run. Philly is playing as well as they have all season, save a 10-3 stinker loss at Washington in week 16. McNabb is on fire, playing some of the best football of his career at just the right time, and Philly's defense is playing amazing football. Now I don't really like the argument of eliminating a big run while analyzing a RBs performance, but outside of the big 40 yard TD run by Peterson, PHI did an excellent job bottling him up. The Giants running game is on a whole other level with 2 and 3 guys they can rotate in and get great production from, but the Giants passing game is completely void of playmakers, and they really stumbled down the stretch offensively. All that being said, it's going to be very hard for the Eagles to beat the Giants twice in the Meadowlands, and it's going to come down to their ability to run the ball successfully with Westbrook.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Brent Celek. He is now clearly the starting TE for the Eagles, and Philly loves to spread the ball around in the passing game. He's quietly one of the best TE options this week.
Don't Use: Eli Manning. Lack of playmakers, terrible match up. Simple.
SD @ PIT
These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, with the Steelers edging the Chargers 11-10, although it probably should have been 18-10 with the controversy surrounding the defensive TD return off the crazy last minute play. Still, that TD wasn't indicative of how the game was being played. SD's D has turned it on, and Big Ben, while being cleared to play, is still somewhat dealing with the lingers effects of a concussion. SD's swarming pass rush caused all sorts of problems for Peyton Manning, and while Big Ben is undoubtedly more mobile, he has a pretty mediocre offensive line in front of him. LT's absence isn't nearly as big of a story as people are making it out to be, but the rough playing surface of the Pittsburgh field could have an impact on Sproles' ability to cut, which is his entire game. This is shaping up to be another slugfest, and I'm actually leaning towards the Chargers to pull this one out thanks to a superior offense.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Vincent Jackson. With zero catches last week and against one of the top secondaries, he might seem like an easy avoid. However, with Gates continuing to be banged up, Jackson needs to step up, and I feel he will. He'll haul down at least one big play reception this week.
Don't Use: Ben Roethlisberger. He's banged up and will be on the run against a very good pass rush. There's very little upside here.
BAL @ TEN
These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, early on, and TEN won a slugfest at Baltimore 13-10. One of several defensive battles this week, but this could be the finest. Baltimore hates when you try to run on them, and that's exactly what the Titans will spend most of the game trying to do. The key to this game is Joe Flacco. Baltimore this year reminds me a lot of the Steelers team that won the Super Bowl in early 2006. Ferocious defense, solid running game, and a rookie QB asked to manage the game and make a play here and there. Flacco isn't quite as mobile as Big Ben, but has a huge arm and mostly limits his mistakes. The problem is that McClain and McGahee aren't nearly what Parker and Bettis were. I'm leaning towards TEN in this one as they have a stronger offensive line, a veteran QB, and a much more dynamic backfield.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Chris Johnson. Most might avoid him this week thanks to the match up, but I think he's good for a big play at some point in this game, maybe two. This is the type of game where the Titans need to pull out all the stops to move the ball, and getting Johnson into space will be essential.
Don't Use: LenDale White. He might score, but he's going to do little to nothing in the yardage department. I expect Chris Johnson to be far more productive with his touches thanks to his versatility.
AZ @ CAR
These two teams hooked up once during the regular season, at Carolina, with the Panthers winning 27-23. Vegas certainly doesn't think the Cardinals have any sort of chance, favoring the Panthers by 10. Honestly, not much has changed since the first match up, except for two changes with the Cardinals. First, we have Boldin's injury, which should limit him. Second, we have the re-emergence of Edgerrin James, which helps balance out the Cardinals offense and should help offset the loss of Boldin somewhat. That being said, Carolina is simply too well balanced for the Cardinals to overcome, but while the Vegas line indicates it'll be somewhat of a blowout, I disagree.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Jake Delhomme. He has the best match up and the best weapons of the 4 mediocre QBs added by the 1st week byes, and therefore should post the best line as long as the Carolina running game doesn't dominate their scoring.
Don't Use: Anquan Boldin. If you didn't use him last round, like me, don't throw him in this round. He is honestly hurting, and while he'll give it a go, I think his job will be more as a decoy and that he will fall far short of playing a full game as if he were healthy.
PHI @ NYG
These two teams have hooked up twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The first time was a 36-31 scoring bananza that the Giants won, and the second was a 20-14 Philly victory during their late season run. Philly is playing as well as they have all season, save a 10-3 stinker loss at Washington in week 16. McNabb is on fire, playing some of the best football of his career at just the right time, and Philly's defense is playing amazing football. Now I don't really like the argument of eliminating a big run while analyzing a RBs performance, but outside of the big 40 yard TD run by Peterson, PHI did an excellent job bottling him up. The Giants running game is on a whole other level with 2 and 3 guys they can rotate in and get great production from, but the Giants passing game is completely void of playmakers, and they really stumbled down the stretch offensively. All that being said, it's going to be very hard for the Eagles to beat the Giants twice in the Meadowlands, and it's going to come down to their ability to run the ball successfully with Westbrook.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Brent Celek. He is now clearly the starting TE for the Eagles, and Philly loves to spread the ball around in the passing game. He's quietly one of the best TE options this week.
Don't Use: Eli Manning. Lack of playmakers, terrible match up. Simple.
SD @ PIT
These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, with the Steelers edging the Chargers 11-10, although it probably should have been 18-10 with the controversy surrounding the defensive TD return off the crazy last minute play. Still, that TD wasn't indicative of how the game was being played. SD's D has turned it on, and Big Ben, while being cleared to play, is still somewhat dealing with the lingers effects of a concussion. SD's swarming pass rush caused all sorts of problems for Peyton Manning, and while Big Ben is undoubtedly more mobile, he has a pretty mediocre offensive line in front of him. LT's absence isn't nearly as big of a story as people are making it out to be, but the rough playing surface of the Pittsburgh field could have an impact on Sproles' ability to cut, which is his entire game. This is shaping up to be another slugfest, and I'm actually leaning towards the Chargers to pull this one out thanks to a superior offense.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Vincent Jackson. With zero catches last week and against one of the top secondaries, he might seem like an easy avoid. However, with Gates continuing to be banged up, Jackson needs to step up, and I feel he will. He'll haul down at least one big play reception this week.
Don't Use: Ben Roethlisberger. He's banged up and will be on the run against a very good pass rush. There's very little upside here.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Browns Hire Eric Mangini As Head Coach
The Cleveland Browns have hired former New England defensive coordinator and New York Jets head coach as their new head coach. Mangini has also hired former Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Ryan as his own defensive coordinator. Rumor also has him looking for west coast offensive minds for his new offensive coordinator.
Fantasy Impact: Until the Browns get a consistent pass rush, their defense will remain mediocre. Adding Shaun Rogers was huge (literally) for them as he's headed to the Pro Bowl, and they give up little to get him from the idiots in Detroit, so he's an excellent building block. It remains to be seen what will happen on the offensive side of the ball, but installing a west coast offense will be good news for Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow as it fits their skills well, although time will tell if Winslow will still be a Brown next season. We already know he'll still be a fuckin' soldja, though. When Quinn stepped in for the ineffective Derek Anderson, the offense was geared more towards the downfield attack that Anderson was better equipped for. Jamal Lewis is a horrible fit for a west coast offense, and given his advancing age, it'd be a shock if he was still relied upon next year as the 300ish carry RB. Expect the Browns to pursue their future at the RB position in the draft.
Fantasy Impact: Until the Browns get a consistent pass rush, their defense will remain mediocre. Adding Shaun Rogers was huge (literally) for them as he's headed to the Pro Bowl, and they give up little to get him from the idiots in Detroit, so he's an excellent building block. It remains to be seen what will happen on the offensive side of the ball, but installing a west coast offense will be good news for Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow as it fits their skills well, although time will tell if Winslow will still be a Brown next season. We already know he'll still be a fuckin' soldja, though. When Quinn stepped in for the ineffective Derek Anderson, the offense was geared more towards the downfield attack that Anderson was better equipped for. Jamal Lewis is a horrible fit for a west coast offense, and given his advancing age, it'd be a shock if he was still relied upon next year as the 300ish carry RB. Expect the Browns to pursue their future at the RB position in the draft.
Saints RB Reggie Bush undergoes microfracture surgery
The New Orleans Saints have announced that Reggie Bush has undergone microfracture surgery on his troublesome left knee. This is one of the most severe knee surgeries out there, and has a lower success percentage than ACL surgery. This is a massive blow to a player who is totally reliant on his cutback ability and long speed.
Fantasy Impact: Reggie Bush has the name appeal and the perceived untapped potential that makes some fantasy owners still drool. If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, especially in PPR leagues where his perceived value is sky high, I would suggest gauging his trade value and dealing him. Bush simply is not going to evolve into an every down back because he cannot run between the tackles, and his durability is in serious question. When Bush first came out on college, I thought his career arc would mirror that of Brian Westbrook, a super scatback who had the size and skills necessary to learn how to run between the tackles. It's now his third season, and there are zero signs that this is going to take place. Pierre Thomas, ironically, is exactly what the Saints thought they were getting in Bush, minus the breakaway speed, and he's proving to be too good to leave off the field. All this being said, Bush now faces a downside of this surgery hampering him in the offseason and into the 2009 season. His value will now sink with the emergence of Pierre Thomas as the Saints have a very capable committee partner. MJD and Marion Barber would be excellent candidates to use Bush to trade for, as MJD is set to see his value explode, and Barber's freak toe injury probably has his owners too down on him.
Fantasy Impact: Reggie Bush has the name appeal and the perceived untapped potential that makes some fantasy owners still drool. If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, especially in PPR leagues where his perceived value is sky high, I would suggest gauging his trade value and dealing him. Bush simply is not going to evolve into an every down back because he cannot run between the tackles, and his durability is in serious question. When Bush first came out on college, I thought his career arc would mirror that of Brian Westbrook, a super scatback who had the size and skills necessary to learn how to run between the tackles. It's now his third season, and there are zero signs that this is going to take place. Pierre Thomas, ironically, is exactly what the Saints thought they were getting in Bush, minus the breakaway speed, and he's proving to be too good to leave off the field. All this being said, Bush now faces a downside of this surgery hampering him in the offseason and into the 2009 season. His value will now sink with the emergence of Pierre Thomas as the Saints have a very capable committee partner. MJD and Marion Barber would be excellent candidates to use Bush to trade for, as MJD is set to see his value explode, and Barber's freak toe injury probably has his owners too down on him.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Wild Card Round Summary
ATL @ ARI
Summary: A slugfest that ended up with Arizona being able to score more, and Ryan looking fairly solid, but more like a rookie QB playing in his first playoff game than the cool veteran he played the part of for most of the year.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Edgerrin James. He posted a decent 8.2 points, but had a goal line carry stolen by Tim Hightower, which ended up making him the worst starting RB to use of the 8 who went this weekend. It also made no sense how the Cardinals only used him for 16 carries when he was obviously running very well...he completed disappeared during the middle of the game.
Don't Use: I didn't list anyone, and all the major players came through. Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, White, and Turner all posted good yardage with at least 1 TD.
IND @ SD
Summary: I messed up here. Indy kept getting buried deep in their own territory at the start of literally every drive, and the game came down to the rushing attacks, of which San Diego was far superior. Chalk this one up to the Chargers punter.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Joseph Addai. SD's defense has turned it up several gears over the end of the regular season, and Addai wasn't overly productive with his touches, but 13.2 fantasy points got it done.
Don't Use: LaDainian Tomlinson. A TD gave him a respectable 8.5 points, but he left hurt after only 5 carries while Sproles showed what LT could have done had he been healthy.
BAL @ MIA
Summary: Baltimore took care of business with a truly dominating defensive performance.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: LeRon McClain. A solid 11.5 point day on 19 carries, and it was almost much better. Flacco missed him open in the flat on the last drive on a playaction pass that would have been his 2nd TD.
Don't Use: Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. Brown actually posted 12.2 points, which was solid. Surprisingly enough, he was on the field far more often despite splitting carries with Ricky during the 2nd half of the season.
PHI @ MIN
Summary: Minnesota made this a bit closer than it should have been, but Philly took care of business in the end, making nice halftime adjustments to completely shut down the Minnesota offense in the 2nd half.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Visanthe Shiancoe. 7 yards? I suck.
Don't Use: Tavaris Jackson. 164 yards and a pick. He sucked.
Conclusion: 3/4 on the Summaries, 2/4 on the Sneaky Plays, and 3/4 on the Don't Uses. Solid, but could be better. I'll do the same again this week.
Summary: A slugfest that ended up with Arizona being able to score more, and Ryan looking fairly solid, but more like a rookie QB playing in his first playoff game than the cool veteran he played the part of for most of the year.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Edgerrin James. He posted a decent 8.2 points, but had a goal line carry stolen by Tim Hightower, which ended up making him the worst starting RB to use of the 8 who went this weekend. It also made no sense how the Cardinals only used him for 16 carries when he was obviously running very well...he completed disappeared during the middle of the game.
Don't Use: I didn't list anyone, and all the major players came through. Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, White, and Turner all posted good yardage with at least 1 TD.
IND @ SD
Summary: I messed up here. Indy kept getting buried deep in their own territory at the start of literally every drive, and the game came down to the rushing attacks, of which San Diego was far superior. Chalk this one up to the Chargers punter.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Joseph Addai. SD's defense has turned it up several gears over the end of the regular season, and Addai wasn't overly productive with his touches, but 13.2 fantasy points got it done.
Don't Use: LaDainian Tomlinson. A TD gave him a respectable 8.5 points, but he left hurt after only 5 carries while Sproles showed what LT could have done had he been healthy.
BAL @ MIA
Summary: Baltimore took care of business with a truly dominating defensive performance.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: LeRon McClain. A solid 11.5 point day on 19 carries, and it was almost much better. Flacco missed him open in the flat on the last drive on a playaction pass that would have been his 2nd TD.
Don't Use: Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. Brown actually posted 12.2 points, which was solid. Surprisingly enough, he was on the field far more often despite splitting carries with Ricky during the 2nd half of the season.
PHI @ MIN
Summary: Minnesota made this a bit closer than it should have been, but Philly took care of business in the end, making nice halftime adjustments to completely shut down the Minnesota offense in the 2nd half.
Sneaky Fantasy Play: Visanthe Shiancoe. 7 yards? I suck.
Don't Use: Tavaris Jackson. 164 yards and a pick. He sucked.
Conclusion: 3/4 on the Summaries, 2/4 on the Sneaky Plays, and 3/4 on the Don't Uses. Solid, but could be better. I'll do the same again this week.
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