Friday, September 11, 2009

PIT/TEN Observations

Unfortunately I missed most of the 1st half, but it seems like in all reality I didn't miss much of anything.  I tuned it right before the Titans went on their drive that led to Bironas' blocked FG, and saw the rest of the game from there.

Tennessee - The Titans did NOT do a good job trying to get Chris Johnson in space.  I didn't see many screens, draws, or pass plays designed to spread the defense out and give Johnson room to run.  I think this really hurt their offense in a game where they needed to be creative.  LenDale White looked mostly unimpressive, and it proved that Chris Johnson is indeed the man of the backfield.  Kerry Collins looked solid in the pocket, and Justin Gage was clearly his first read, especially on 3rd downs.  Gage had one drop on a pass behind him, but other than that, he did a good job getting open against a tough defense.  He could be a solid WR3.  Nate Washington was limited, and Kenny Britt posted solid numbers in his absence, but outside of the 57 yard catch on a blown coverage, I'm pretty sure Washington will resume starting when he's 100% as he's the best deep threat on the roster.  As far as Bironas is concerned...everyone who owns him should just forget that game.  A bad snap and bad blocking were the reason he missed 2 FGs...it had nothing to do with him.

Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh's rushing attack looked awful.  While some may chalk that up to TEN's stingy run defense, I read that Parker simply sucked.  I missed the majority of his carries, but he apparently looked slow and danced too much.  Mendenhall hasn't received any positive press since he arrived last year, so this could be a rough season for Pittsburgh on the ground.  This further proves my claim that Big Ben will bounce back this season as odds are they will have to throw more than they'd prefer.  Holmes looked awesome, and Ward continues to prove people wrong, like myself, that he's going to start declining as a fantasy factor.  Barring another injury, he should post yet another WR3 season.  Those who own PIT's defense had to cringe when Polamalu was buried doing the splits under a pile.  They're calling it a MCL sprain at the moment, but an MRI is forthcoming.  It would not shock me at all if he's torn his ACL.  That would be a huge blow to their defense as he's a leader and the reason why their secondary is so imposing.

All in all, it was a very entertaining first game of the season!

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Week 1 Injury/Depth Chart Report

QB:

Mark Sanchez - Sanchez has won the starting job.  Given the run-first offensive system and the lack of explosive weapons, you're probably looking at Joe Flacco part 2.

Brady Quinn - Quinn has won the starting job.  He does have an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else.  He's a decent QB2.

Kyle Orton - Orton has been able to practice effectively despite his finger injury via reports from Denver's practices.  He should start in week 1 barring a setback.  He's a slightly risky QB2, but I still very much like his outlook for the 2009 season as a sleeper that everyone will laugh at you for owning.

Matt Cassel - Cassel's week 1 status is very much up in the air.  Considering he's facing Baltimore, I would hope you're not relying on him to start for your team.  Brodie Croyle would start in his place if he cannot go, and he's obviously not an option whatsoever either.

Matthew Stafford - Stafford has won the starting job.  Much like Quinn, he has an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else.  He's a very low-end QB2 as it stands right now, although he's probably worth watching a bit closer than Sanchez.

Byron Leftwich - Leftwich has won the starting job.  He's going to be leading a run-heavy offense, but he has a mauling offensive line in front of him, and he has some good targets in Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow.  He's a low-end QB2 right now.

Marc Bulger - Bulger has reportedly looked good in practice as he comes back from a fractured pinkie, and all reports have him ready to go in week 1.  He's obviously not to be in your lineup, however.

RB:

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is suspended for the first 3 weeks of the season.  Fred Jackson will start and probably provide decent RB2 value, but his offensive line and offensive coordinator turnover threaten the stability of his surrounding offense.

Fred Taylor - Taylor will get the "starting" nod for the Patriots, but if they open in a spread offense on the first snap, Kevin Faulk will be in there.  Faulk will continue to dominate passing downs while Taylor, Maroney, and Sammy Morris split carries in some fashion.  Also keep an eye on Benjarvis Green-Ellis.  All are worth owning as RB5s, but none should sniff your starting lineup.

Ray Rice - Rice was officially awarded the starting job, although all of us knew much earlier than this.  He's a RB2 against the disaster that is KC's defense.

Willie Parker - Parker has won the goal line role, making him a solid RB2 while that lasts.

Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD has practiced all week with his shin bruise, and he's all systems go for week 1.

Knowshon Moreno - Moreno has practiced and will likely play in week 1, but he's not 100% quite yet.  Look for him to split carries in some fashion, so he's a risky flex play at best.  Look for players with a more defined role.  He'll be the man in Denver before long.

Oakland Raiders - They have still not announced a starting RB.  Why they're still messing around with Fargas I have no idea.  Well I do actually, I'm lying.  It's the fucking Raiders.  McFadden is the only safe play here...he's going to be on the field plenty no matter who "starts".

Marion Barber / Felix Jones - The Cowboys announced a 50/50 split in carries for this season between these two guys, but I find this a bit harder to believe.  While Felix Jones is undoubtedly more explosive, Barber is simply the better runner between the tackles.  It'll probably come down to the game situation, but if it's close or the Cowboys need to run the clock, you can bet Barber will lead the team in carries.

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is all systems go for week 1, and worth using as a RB2.  Keep a close eye on his explosiveness after 2 offseason surgeries (knee, ankle).

Jonathan Stewart - In a big surprise, Stewart returned to a full practice and is not on the injury report.  While Stewart shouldn't be anywhere close to your lineup, this could be a downer on DeAngelo Williams before long.  It shouldn't be an issue in week 1, though.

Pierre Thomas - Thomas is still battling his sprained MCL and is questionable for week 1.  He claims he's ready, but it remains to be seen if the team will risk him in what should be an easy win over the Lions.  Mike Bell would start in his place and be a solid RB2.

Cadillac Williams / Derrick Ward - Williams is supposedly starting in week 1.  I know Ward was likely drafted as a RB2, but you cannot risk using anyone in this backfield until we see how it plays out, especially with the 2-2-1 rotational series claim.

Tim Hightower / Beanie Wells - Another RB mess to avoid.  I think Hightower will start, but Wells is the better RB here.  Neither is worth using until one emerges, most likely Wells.  If you have to, I'd use Wells.

WR:

Miami Dolphins - They have an absolute mess opposite Ted Ginn Jr., with Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline all competing still.  Avoid using a roster spot on any of them for now.

Wes Welker - Welker's had a mysterious injury for a while, and with the Patriots being so secretive and also playing on Monday night, odds are you don't have another similar alternative in that time slot.  Unless definitive news is made public prior to Sunday's games, I would opt for an alternative.

Mark Clayton - Clayton is expected to start this week despite missing most of the offseason with his usual assortment of leg injuries, but if you have him in your lineup, you're in bad shape anyways.

Chris Henry - Henry missed Thursday's practice with a thigh injury, so keep an eye on this for the weekend.  I'd probably veer away from him anyways until it's clear what role he'll have in the offense, but if he's healthy, you can take a chance on him as a WR3.

Nate Washington - Washington is questionable for tonight's game, and with him not being 100%, he should not be started.

Kevin Walter - Walter will likely be limited in week 1 with his hamstring injury, so he's quite risky as a starter on your team.

Brandon Marshall - Everything points to Marshall starting on Sunday, so he's startable was a WR2/WR3.

Chaz Schilens - Schilens will miss week 1 as he rehabs with a broken foot.

New York Giants - Steve Smith is locked in at one spot, and Hixon will start across from him.  However, expect to see plenty of Hakeem Nicks.  Smith can be used in PPR leagues, but I would avoid the situation if I could until we see it play out.  Smith, Hixon and Nicks are well worth owning on your bench though.

Bernard Berrian - Berrian has been limited in practice so far, and he has no game work with Favre, but he's expected to start.  He's a high risk/reward WR3 play in week 1.

Antonio Bryant - Bryant is all systems go for week 1 after offseason knee surgery.  He can be used safely as a WR3.

Anquan Boldin - Boldin's leg injuries are back already with him being limited by a hamstring injury.  He's expected to play, but could be limited in the game on a snap count.  He's too explosive to bench, but temper your expectations.

Donnie Avery - Avery is all systems go and has a good match up in week 1 against Seattle's banged up secondary.  You can use him as a WR3.

NFL Season Opener!

It's football time ladies and gentlemen, and all of our draft preparation is about to enter it's first phase in week 1.  Pittsburgh and Tennessee will start us off tonight.  I wanted to do some live blogging of the game, but I have a doubleheader in softball and will probably catch most of the game at the bar.

As far as thoughts for tonight, keep a close eye on the TEN defense.  They were probably overdrafted in most leagues simply given the fact that they lost arguably the most dominant defensive lineman, Albert Haynesworth, in the offseason.  What type of ripple effect this loss will have on the rest of the defense is well worth watching not only for TEN defensive owners, but also for people on the fence about playing offensive skill position players against them.

Kerry Collins and Big Ben were drafted as QB2s most likely, so I doubt either of them are starting for many teams tonight.  I'm predicting a bounce back season for Big Ben, so we'll see what type of start he gets off to tonight.  Chris Johnson will have some tough sledding, but keep in mind how often TEN used him in space against Baltimore in the playoffs last year, and how effective he was prior to his ankle sprain.  He's your first round pick, and while a big game is pretty much impossible, it'd be really hard to bench him in week 1 unless you have two obvious top ten guys also around (Ray Rice versus KC would be awfully tempting).  Willie Parker won the goal line duties kinda by default with Mendenhall being unimpressive and nobody else stepping up, so he's a quality RB2 against the Haynesworth-less Titans D.  Holmes is an obvious start at WR, but I wouldn't be ecstatic to start anybody else.  Gage isn't a bad WR3, but he was probably drafted as your WR4 anyways.  Ward should put up workman-like numbers with a chance for a TD.  No TEs are worth using, which is a shame as Heath Miller continues to be under-utilized in the Pittsburgh offense.

It should be a great game between two physical teams, and I'm looking forward to week 1!