Let's take a look at the WRs with a chance to make a fantasy impact. Over the past few seasons, we've seen some pretty studly rookie seasons from guys like Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, and the improbable Marques Colston. Dwayne Bowe was also off to a big start last season, but he eventually wore down and also fell victim to a poor offense.
WR:
Donnie Avery - A completely shocking move by the St. Louis Rams in taking a WR that wasn't a part of any top 5 WR list that I read about. Avery was the 1st WR off the draft board. Avery is a burner who fits the St. Louis WR profile, but he's rather raw and probably won't make an immediate impact. Given Drew Bennett is the starter opposite Torry Holt, Avery will have an outside shot at starting at some point this season depending on how fast he picks up the pro game. He's not worth drafting unless he shines and becomes a starter during the preseason, but that's highly unlikely.
Devin Thomas - Thomas was labeled as many as the WR with the highest upside in the NFL draft, but like Avery, he's also very raw. He was drafted into a great situation in that he'll be given a chance to start opposite Santana Moss, with Randle-El being far better suited for the slot. He's the big, physical receiver that Washington sorely needed, but given his lack of seasoning, it'll be a long-shot for him to be relevant in fantasy leagues this season. Washington is moving to a west coast offense this season, so that'll require some adjustments from QB Jason Campbell as well, so consider that. Thomas isn't a bad speculative choice at the end of drafts depending on how he does in training camp.
Jordy Nelson - Nelson is an interesting talent, but he's more of a project to eventually replace Donald Driver opposite Greg Jennings that someone primed to make a splash in his rookie season. With promising youngster James Jones also on the roster, Nelson is no better than 4th on the depth chart.
James Hardy - Hardy, much like Devin Thomas, was drafted into a situation that will allow him a chance to start in week 1. Buffalo has been looking for a big receiver to start opposite Lee Evans for 2 seasons now, and they finally landed one in the 6'6 Hardy. Given the QB situation in Buffalo is a bit in the air, I can't see Hardy being a big producer in fantasy leagues. Even if everything bounces right, there just won't be enough catches to go around for Hardy to be a weekly option yet with Lee Evans there. However, given his size as a potential red-zone weapon, he could emerge as a fantasy reserve.
Eddie Royal - With Brandon Marshall the unquestioned #1 WR, and the presence of Darrell Jackson, Brandon Stokley, and Keary Colbert on the roster, Royal has no chance of starting this season. The more likely scenario is that Royal will immediately become the team's punt returner, and he'll have a chance to replace Stokley in the slot later in the season should Stokley get hurt. Royal will focus on punt returns and be the #4 receiver at best when week 1 starts.
Jerome Simpson - Simpson will compete to replace Chris Henry in the slot. Given the Bengals often go 3 wide, Simpson could be in line for solid playing time. With CJ and TJ gobbling up most of the production, however, Simpson has a long ways to go to matter in fantasy leagues. If we wins the slot job, he's worth keeping an eye on over the course of the season.
DeSean Jackson - There was much debate over Jackson leading up to the draft, and some places labeled him as the best WR in the draft. His speed is elite, but did he have the size to start? I'm not sure how Philadelphia views him long term, but with Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis locked in as starters, Jackson will compete for the starting slot position. It will likely take an injury to a starter for him to become fantasy relevent.
Malcolm Kelly - Also picked by the Redskins, Kelly will also have a chance to start, but he's behind Devin Thomas thanks to draft position. Once training camp gets going that can all change depending on performance, however, so he's worth keeping an eye on to see if he can unseat Thomas with his performance.
Limas Sweed - I have to say I'm disappointed with Sweed's landing spot. Sweed was my favorite WR in the draft this season, and he was definitely the most pro-ready of them all. However, he lands in a situation in Pittsburgh where Ward and Holmes are anchored as the starters, so he's not going to be given a chance to start. Sweed is a big receiver with deep speed, and I'm surprised Buffalo didn't go with him over Malcolm Kelly. He would definitely be fantasy relevant should either Ward or Holmes get injured this season.
Dexter Jackson - Jackson joins the most convulated offseason passing game in the NFL in Tampa Bay. I think they have about 15 QBs on their roster, and are loaded up on old WRs that are breaking down. Jackson faced 1-AA competition at Appalacian State, so his ability to go against NFL corners will be questioned. Still, with the aging Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard, the disappointing Michael Clayton, and the questionable Maurice Stovall ahead of him, he has a chance to make an impact and start at some point. It just won't be in week 1, but any Gruden WR is worth remembering.
Earl Bennett - Bennett enters an interesting WR situation in Chicago. Both starters from last season, Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, have left. The starting receivers are the promising but oft-injured Mark Bradley, and the returning Marty Booker. Booker has lost at least a step, so he's certainly not the WR he was when he originally played for Chicago. Devin Hester is there, but there are many questions as to what his role will be as a WR, and he's best suited for the slot. Brandon Lloyd is also in the mix, and he certainly has the talent to start for this team. If Bennett really shines in training camp, it'll be very hard for the Bears to keep him off the field. He'd like be a fantasy reserve at best, but he's someone to keep an eye on.
Andre Caldwell - He'll be the underdog to Jerome Simpson in the battle to be Chris Henry's replacement in Cincinnati, but he's worth noting given his supreme athleticism and big time college resume. He fell due to durability concerns, but there's no question he has the talent to be an NFL WR. If he wins the slot position, he'll be worth watching instead of Simpson.
Will Franklin - He's worth keeping tabs on based on the wide-open competition in Kansas City to start opposite Dwayne Bowe. Given the prediction that KC's offense will again be rather sluggish and slowed by inconsistent QB play, it's hard to think that the 3rd option behind Bowe and Gonzalez will have much fantasy value, but it's a name to be familiar with at worst.
If any other rookies emerge with strong training camps and become starters, I'll follow up with an article about them.
TE:
Dustin Keller - Keller is one of 2 rookie TEs worth watching at the moment, and he was drafted by the New York Jets. He's more of a big WR than a lighter TE given his 6'3/242 frame as he's not big enough to block consistently at the NFL level, so I'll be curious to see how the Jets use him. If he impresses and wins playing time, he could be used like Dallas Clark in that he's lined up in the slot and used to create mismatches. He's well worth keeping an eye on.
John Carlson - Carlson was the most well-rounded TE coming out of college this year, and he'll be given a chance to start in the west coast offense of the Seattle Seahawks. Should he win the starting TE role, he'll also be well worth keeping an eye on given Seattle is without proven passing game weapons behind the aging Bobby Engram.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
NFL Draft Fantasy Football RB Analysis
I'm skipping QBs. Rookie QBs don't offer much of anything in standard redraft leagues.
Let's take a look back on the NFL Draft and figure out which RBs will offer fantasy football value during the 2008 season:
RB:
Darren McFadden - McFadden is obviously the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. He's incredibly talented, but he's joining a somewhat crowded backfield. Last season's starter, Justin Fargas, was re-signed in the offseason prior to the draft. Fargas, however, has a long history of injuries and likely won't last starting all 16 games. Last season's draft choice, Michael Bush, is returning from a broken leg and has reportedly impressed very early on. McFadden is clearly the most talented runner of the group, though. With crazy Al Davis over-riding coach Lane Kiffin whenever he feels like doing it, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push McFadden onto the field as often as possible. All in all, we'll have to wait to see where he goes in drafts before figuring out what will happen with him. This situation could resemble last season's Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson situation, but Michael Bush is the wild card here.
Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Carolina parted ways with previous starter DeShaun Foster, but their former RB-of-the-future still remains on the roster in DeAngelo Williams. I personally thought Williams could be another Brian Westbrook if given the chance, but his skills just don't fit what Carolina desires in their primary RB, including the mediocrity that Foster had given them the past two seasons. Carolina wants a power running game, and Stewart is far better suited to provide that. Williams has the talent to start in the NFL, but his skills need to fit the offensive system, which makes you wonder why Carolina drafted him in the first place. Stewart's turf toe injury warrants concern, as does his experience in a spread offense. Keep a close eye on reports of his health in training camp. He should be given a chance to become their primary RB, and he's my favorite rookie runner as of now.
Felix Jones - McFadden's complement in college joins another committee at the next level; this time with Marion Barber. Given the Cowboys just inked Barber to a long term extension last week, they're showing committment to Barber as the primary ball carrier. Barber's ability to last as a 300 carry RB is very much in question given his violent running style, so Jones will be a lesser committee member at worst. I put the odds on Barber lasting 16 games as very low, especially given the history of 1st time starters, so Jones should see a couple starts provided he shows he belongs. Jones is a speedster with the talent to start at the NFL level.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would have made perfect sense for the Bears, Cardinals, and Lions, but he kept falling on draft day, and he landed right in the Steelers' lap. Willie Parker is going to start as he's earned it with 2 successful seasons in a row as the primary ball carrier, but Parker has his faults. He's poor in short yardage, and he's not impressive in the passing game. Mendenhall is a much better fit for their desired power running game, and he's also better at blitz pickup and catching passes. At first, expect Mendenhall to be given every chance to be the short yardage and 3rd down RB for the Steelers in his rookie season, and I expect him to take some of Parker's carries. Should Parker go down, he would have incredible fantasy value. Until then, he's a RB3.
Chris Johnson - Johnson was a shocker for the Titans as they really didn't need another RB project. With LenWhale White hossing up the carries plus the post-game buffet, Johnson isn't left with much to feed upon. Last year's 2nd round project Chris Henry is still around and showed some promise, so Johnson is battling for a backup role. Johnson has ridiciulous speed, but his thin frame presents durability issues, although he's built similarly to Clinton Portis coming out of college. He's not worth targeting unless injuries blow up the Titans' backfield. He's competing with Henry for a true backup role, although he should have the upperhand if nothing other than the fact he was a 1st round pick. Johnson should earn a 3rd down/change-of-pace role with a strong pre-season.
Matt Forte - Forte, along with Stewart, is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Cedric Benson has never showed much at the NFL level, is coming off of a bad broken ankle/leg, plus he's had a drunken incident in the offseason to boot. Unfortunately the Chicago Bears aren't a team that will quickly admit mistakes, and Benson is still being called the team's starting RB. Benson has always had the pure talent, and it's possible that Forte's arrival will motivate him to finally cash in on that talent. Forte isn't special in area, but he's a solid all-around RB, and in a fair world he'll be given a chance to win the starting job. As a Bears fan, I love the fact that he's a blue-collar worker without the big attitude, and I think he's a great fit for this team. At 6'2/222, he's a load, and he also possesses open-field speed, blocking prowess, and the ability to catch the football...none of which Cedric Benson has. The only knock on him was facing weaker competition while playing at Tulane.
Ray Rice - Rice was a bigtime producer at the college level at Rutgers, but he'll move directly into a backup role for the Ravens behind incumbant starter Willis McGahee. McGahee revived his career last season, so Rice will be a true backup, but McGahee does have his durability concerns. He'll be an excellent handcuff for McGahee owners, and he'd have a lot of value as the Ravens starter should McGahee go down. He's a powerful runner with good speed and solid passing game skills.
Kevin Smith - Smith is the remaining top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. The Lions released Kevin Jones amidst all of his injuries, and Smith's only competition is the underwhelming Tatum Bell, and Brian Calhoun, a 2nd year RB coming off a torn ACL with no NFL experience. Considering the competition, he might have the best chance to start of all 3. The Lions, with Mike Martz gone, are expected to eliminate the spread offense and focus more on traditional formations with 2 WRs and the running game. Smith has talent as evidenced by just missing Barry Sanders' record for most yards in a season, but given concerns about his monster senior year college workload (450 carries!!) and the competition (played at UCF), he fell to the 3rd round despite a higher 2nd round draft grade by many outlets.
Steve Slaton - Slaton was in the limelight after his monster sophomore season, but a recurring wrist injury hampered his ability to hold onto the football as he fumbled often during his sophomore and junior seasons. Already labeled a durability concern with his thin frame, this didn't help his draft stock. Slaton will probably never be an NFL workhorse, but he landed in a good spot in Houston. The injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown are ahead of him, although the coaching staff is also high on 2nd year man Chris Taylor. Slaton will have to prove healthy and able to hold onto the football to earn playing time, but he's a great fit for a zone blocking team like Houston.
Ryan Torain - Sleeper alert. First of all, Denver drafted him late, making him noteworthy immediately. Secondly, he was very talented, but a broken toe in the middle of his senior year killed his draft status. He has the disappointing Travis Henry ahead of him, as well as last season's late draft choice/breakout player in Selvin Young. The Denver coaching staff doesn't appear interested in making Young a workhorse given his thin frame, but Torain is anything but that at 6'1/222. Torain is a great fit for the zone blocking system and shows good all-around skills. If Torain recovers from the fractured toe and shows well in traning camp, keep a very close eye on him.
Tim Hightower - Slightly lesser sleeper alert. With Edgerrin James nearing the end of his career and the Cardinals lack of depth at the position (Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington), Hightower could immediately emerge as a committee member with the potential to start despite being a 5th round pick. He is worth watching closely thanks to the lack of depth ahead of him, and a solid offense around him. It would probably take an Edgerrin James injury to give him a lot of fantasy value, but at Edge's age, it's very possible.
Mike Hart - A player worth watching thanks to his situation. Kenton Keith is on thin ice thanks to his offseason brush with the law. The Colts really like Hart, and the only thing that kept Hart from being drafted higher was his slow 40 time. He produced against bigtime competition for 4 years in college, so he's worth watching as a potential backup to seemingly oft-nicked up Joseph Addai.
Let's take a look back on the NFL Draft and figure out which RBs will offer fantasy football value during the 2008 season:
RB:
Darren McFadden - McFadden is obviously the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. He's incredibly talented, but he's joining a somewhat crowded backfield. Last season's starter, Justin Fargas, was re-signed in the offseason prior to the draft. Fargas, however, has a long history of injuries and likely won't last starting all 16 games. Last season's draft choice, Michael Bush, is returning from a broken leg and has reportedly impressed very early on. McFadden is clearly the most talented runner of the group, though. With crazy Al Davis over-riding coach Lane Kiffin whenever he feels like doing it, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push McFadden onto the field as often as possible. All in all, we'll have to wait to see where he goes in drafts before figuring out what will happen with him. This situation could resemble last season's Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson situation, but Michael Bush is the wild card here.
Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Carolina parted ways with previous starter DeShaun Foster, but their former RB-of-the-future still remains on the roster in DeAngelo Williams. I personally thought Williams could be another Brian Westbrook if given the chance, but his skills just don't fit what Carolina desires in their primary RB, including the mediocrity that Foster had given them the past two seasons. Carolina wants a power running game, and Stewart is far better suited to provide that. Williams has the talent to start in the NFL, but his skills need to fit the offensive system, which makes you wonder why Carolina drafted him in the first place. Stewart's turf toe injury warrants concern, as does his experience in a spread offense. Keep a close eye on reports of his health in training camp. He should be given a chance to become their primary RB, and he's my favorite rookie runner as of now.
Felix Jones - McFadden's complement in college joins another committee at the next level; this time with Marion Barber. Given the Cowboys just inked Barber to a long term extension last week, they're showing committment to Barber as the primary ball carrier. Barber's ability to last as a 300 carry RB is very much in question given his violent running style, so Jones will be a lesser committee member at worst. I put the odds on Barber lasting 16 games as very low, especially given the history of 1st time starters, so Jones should see a couple starts provided he shows he belongs. Jones is a speedster with the talent to start at the NFL level.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would have made perfect sense for the Bears, Cardinals, and Lions, but he kept falling on draft day, and he landed right in the Steelers' lap. Willie Parker is going to start as he's earned it with 2 successful seasons in a row as the primary ball carrier, but Parker has his faults. He's poor in short yardage, and he's not impressive in the passing game. Mendenhall is a much better fit for their desired power running game, and he's also better at blitz pickup and catching passes. At first, expect Mendenhall to be given every chance to be the short yardage and 3rd down RB for the Steelers in his rookie season, and I expect him to take some of Parker's carries. Should Parker go down, he would have incredible fantasy value. Until then, he's a RB3.
Chris Johnson - Johnson was a shocker for the Titans as they really didn't need another RB project. With LenWhale White hossing up the carries plus the post-game buffet, Johnson isn't left with much to feed upon. Last year's 2nd round project Chris Henry is still around and showed some promise, so Johnson is battling for a backup role. Johnson has ridiciulous speed, but his thin frame presents durability issues, although he's built similarly to Clinton Portis coming out of college. He's not worth targeting unless injuries blow up the Titans' backfield. He's competing with Henry for a true backup role, although he should have the upperhand if nothing other than the fact he was a 1st round pick. Johnson should earn a 3rd down/change-of-pace role with a strong pre-season.
Matt Forte - Forte, along with Stewart, is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Cedric Benson has never showed much at the NFL level, is coming off of a bad broken ankle/leg, plus he's had a drunken incident in the offseason to boot. Unfortunately the Chicago Bears aren't a team that will quickly admit mistakes, and Benson is still being called the team's starting RB. Benson has always had the pure talent, and it's possible that Forte's arrival will motivate him to finally cash in on that talent. Forte isn't special in area, but he's a solid all-around RB, and in a fair world he'll be given a chance to win the starting job. As a Bears fan, I love the fact that he's a blue-collar worker without the big attitude, and I think he's a great fit for this team. At 6'2/222, he's a load, and he also possesses open-field speed, blocking prowess, and the ability to catch the football...none of which Cedric Benson has. The only knock on him was facing weaker competition while playing at Tulane.
Ray Rice - Rice was a bigtime producer at the college level at Rutgers, but he'll move directly into a backup role for the Ravens behind incumbant starter Willis McGahee. McGahee revived his career last season, so Rice will be a true backup, but McGahee does have his durability concerns. He'll be an excellent handcuff for McGahee owners, and he'd have a lot of value as the Ravens starter should McGahee go down. He's a powerful runner with good speed and solid passing game skills.
Kevin Smith - Smith is the remaining top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. The Lions released Kevin Jones amidst all of his injuries, and Smith's only competition is the underwhelming Tatum Bell, and Brian Calhoun, a 2nd year RB coming off a torn ACL with no NFL experience. Considering the competition, he might have the best chance to start of all 3. The Lions, with Mike Martz gone, are expected to eliminate the spread offense and focus more on traditional formations with 2 WRs and the running game. Smith has talent as evidenced by just missing Barry Sanders' record for most yards in a season, but given concerns about his monster senior year college workload (450 carries!!) and the competition (played at UCF), he fell to the 3rd round despite a higher 2nd round draft grade by many outlets.
Steve Slaton - Slaton was in the limelight after his monster sophomore season, but a recurring wrist injury hampered his ability to hold onto the football as he fumbled often during his sophomore and junior seasons. Already labeled a durability concern with his thin frame, this didn't help his draft stock. Slaton will probably never be an NFL workhorse, but he landed in a good spot in Houston. The injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown are ahead of him, although the coaching staff is also high on 2nd year man Chris Taylor. Slaton will have to prove healthy and able to hold onto the football to earn playing time, but he's a great fit for a zone blocking team like Houston.
Ryan Torain - Sleeper alert. First of all, Denver drafted him late, making him noteworthy immediately. Secondly, he was very talented, but a broken toe in the middle of his senior year killed his draft status. He has the disappointing Travis Henry ahead of him, as well as last season's late draft choice/breakout player in Selvin Young. The Denver coaching staff doesn't appear interested in making Young a workhorse given his thin frame, but Torain is anything but that at 6'1/222. Torain is a great fit for the zone blocking system and shows good all-around skills. If Torain recovers from the fractured toe and shows well in traning camp, keep a very close eye on him.
Tim Hightower - Slightly lesser sleeper alert. With Edgerrin James nearing the end of his career and the Cardinals lack of depth at the position (Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington), Hightower could immediately emerge as a committee member with the potential to start despite being a 5th round pick. He is worth watching closely thanks to the lack of depth ahead of him, and a solid offense around him. It would probably take an Edgerrin James injury to give him a lot of fantasy value, but at Edge's age, it's very possible.
Mike Hart - A player worth watching thanks to his situation. Kenton Keith is on thin ice thanks to his offseason brush with the law. The Colts really like Hart, and the only thing that kept Hart from being drafted higher was his slow 40 time. He produced against bigtime competition for 4 years in college, so he's worth watching as a potential backup to seemingly oft-nicked up Joseph Addai.
Blog Re-Focus
I have decided that I just don't have time to focus on 2 different sports. Fantasy baseball is a very involved day-to-day game for 6 months, and you really have to dig into the statistics to offer up something unique over all the other writing out there. I don't have the time necessary to dig that deep into the stats and offer that up, so I'm going to waste my time offering up cookie-cutter advice that you can find elsewhere on the web.
On a positive note, this blog will focus solely on fantasy football. It's not as involved, which gives me enough time to write pre-draft value analysis articles on each position, weekly game reviews during the season, and waiver wire suggestions as the season progresses. I promise to those who visit here that these articles will be plentiful once training camp picks up.
On a positive note, this blog will focus solely on fantasy football. It's not as involved, which gives me enough time to write pre-draft value analysis articles on each position, weekly game reviews during the season, and waiver wire suggestions as the season progresses. I promise to those who visit here that these articles will be plentiful once training camp picks up.
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