Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Opening Day 2007

I worked from home yesterday to enjoy a day full of baseball on ESPN. My beloved White Sox got spanked, the Cubs looked bad as well, and most aces turned into 9s, or at least posted ERAs in that range. John Patterson, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, and Eric Bedard all posted less-than-stellar performances. Jose Contreras was beyond atrocious. This isn't all that common as many pitchers are still working on their pitch location, arm angles, and rhythm at this point in the season. Some will also battle the "dead arm" phase as they get themselves back into the pitching routine. It's only one day, and none of these performances are worth worrying about yet. If any of these pitchers post 1 or 2 more performances in a row like they did yesterday, then you might want to start paying attention. My ERA/WHIP in the league that I have Webb, Schilling, and Patterson is looking pretty sweet right now.

On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).

Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.

No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.

B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.

Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.