Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay has been placed on the disabled list with acute appendicitis. Heh, right after I just got done posting about him. The Blue Jays say that he'll miss about a month, and this is obviously bad news for all his owners who were likely counting on him to be their staff ace this year. The concerns about his forearm remain, and given the Blue Jays flatout lied about B.J. Ryan's injury earlier this year by saying it was a back problem instead of an elbow problem, you have to wonder if they're playing games again here. If it's truly appendicitis, he should be back in 3-4 weeks and be fine.
Fantasy Impact: What can I say? As hard as we try, we can't replace an ace. You'll have to check your waiver wire and see what's out there. Or, you can do something I started doing in my league where my rotation isn't deep and use spot starters. The key there is to factor in where he's pitching, the offense he's pitching against, the offense behind him, and the opposing pitcher. Use common sense and rankings, and you'll likely turn out a few gem starts in there somewhere. I'll post any additional news regarding his situation.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Henry Owens To The DL
Florida Marlins closer Henry Owens has been placed on the disabled list with right rotator cuff tendonitis. One of this year's surprises will be out for a few weeks, and I believe this injury is just treated with rest. Unfortunately, this gives Marlins' manager Fredi Gonzalez the opportunity to invent a reason to go back to Jorge Julio as his closer. Given his comments earlier this week about wanting to see Julio back in this role, this is likely the scenario that will play out.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and put Owens on your DL, but pay close attention to what happens in his absence. I would not bother picking up Julio...let someone else drool over his save potential while you keep your ERA and WHIP nice and slim. Instead, pick up Taylor Tankersley and wait for Julio to explode like the volcano he is if you have an empty roster spot and feel like placing a "futures" bet.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and put Owens on your DL, but pay close attention to what happens in his absence. I would not bother picking up Julio...let someone else drool over his save potential while you keep your ERA and WHIP nice and slim. Instead, pick up Taylor Tankersley and wait for Julio to explode like the volcano he is if you have an empty roster spot and feel like placing a "futures" bet.
Zambrano and Hallday Suck, Escobar Rules, And One Hot Johnson
Carlos Zambrano: Seriously, can the Cubs just start using him in the 2nd inning? Another first inning blowup led to 3 runs before the Cubs offense even got to hit. Again, he settled down after that and pitched good baseball the following 5 innings. He gave up 6 runs in total, 4 earned, with two coming after Murton screwed up a flyball that should have been out #3. He's actually pitching well the last three outings in the overall sense, but 2 first inning blowups have made his lines look worse. I'm sure he'll get this figured out, and his buy-low window is still wide open.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
B.J. Ryan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
B.J. Ryan, after a second examination on his elbow, was told to undergo Tommy John surgery today. He'll be out the rest of the season. Like I said before, with Jason Frasor giving up runs in his last 3 appearances, it's likely the Blue Jays will turn to Jeremy Accardo in the next save situation. It's a situation worth monitoring as there's no clearcut answer right now.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
A "Complete Game Shutout" No Decision, Dice-K Rebounds, and Forgotten Closers Making Waves
James Shields: 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K. That statline means a win, right? Wrong. Unfortunately for us Shields owners, he hurled 9 shutout innings to get a ND as Erik Bedard, Dannys Baez, and Chris Ray matched his goose eggs with goose eggs of their own. Shields continues his strong pitching and is well worth using in all appearances but those against elite offenses.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Marlins/Rangers/Blue Jays Closer Situations, Beckett Wins Again, And A Small Rant
Henry Owens/Jorge Julio: Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said that he envisions Jorge Julio back in the closers role. Now I know the Marlins traded specifically for him before the season started, but this should be nowhere close to happening. Owens has blown one save, and even then those runs scored based on someone else's throwing error. Owens has done nothing to lose the job, posting 2 relief victories and 3 saves since taking over the closer's role. This is something to keep in mind, and perhaps trading Owens along with another player to upgrade your closer position might be the best bet since Gonzalez obviously doesn't know what's best for his team, and that's to have Julio only pitch in 8-0 games.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Monday = Slow Day, But Penny Is Worth Much More Than His Name
Brad Penny: Wow, where did this come from? Penny has always had quality stuff, but he's been very inconsistent throughout his career, and he's not a very efficient pitcher. Last night was possibly the best start of his career, allowing 0 runs and 5 hits while K'ing 14 in 7 innings to pick up the win. Given he had 15 Ks in 38 IP prior to this start, he needed something like this to bring his K rate back up. He was due to as he's posted a solid 7 K/9 IP ratio in his career. He was getting extremely lucky by posting a sub 2.00 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a 15:17 K:BB ratio so far this season, but he was very impressive last night. Now is your chance to sell high on this guy as there's no question his ERA will shoot back above 3 at some point, plus he's always an injury risk.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Roger Clemens Returns To The New York Yankees
Roger Clemens has returned for another season, signing a one year deal with the New York Yankees.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Weekend Action - Papelbon Returns, Peavy Dominates, Josh Hamilton
Jon Papelbon: Well, it seems the concerns about his shoulder can be put to rest, for now. It's always a curious move as to why a rested closer is held out of a save situation, but perhaps it was just fatigue. He returned for 2 saves this weekend throwing the heat we expect from him, so he seems fine for now. Crisis avoided!
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
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