Slow news day when this is the biggest story, huh? I mean seriously, who gives a crap about Aaron Brooks? Regardless, the Oakland Raiders released him today. He was due a $5 million dollar signing bonus that the Raiders obviously had no intention of paying. He's been pretty terrible the last two years, although I believe that masks that he can still be a decent QB. Two years ago was his worst professional season in terms of QB rating, but it was under the adverse conditions of New Orleans. That was probably the hardest situation a football team has ever endured over the course of the season, so he gets somewhat of a pass for that. Last season he played behind a horrible offensive line, with malcontent WRs (R. Moss, Porter), for a coach and offensive coordinator that had no idea how to do their jobs. He gets somewhat of a pass for that as well.
That being said, questionable mental toughness and decision making have plagued his career throughout and he's only put together one really good season in 2003 (88.8 QB rating, 24/8 TD/INT). He's still relatively young at 31 and can provide a decent backup QB option for a team in need. He's always had a nice arm and good mobility, but his mental breakdowns have prevented him from cashing in on his physical talent. This is a very strong indication that the Raiders will take Jamarcus Russell #1 overall in the 2007 draft. I presume the Raiders will shop around for a solid veteran QB this offseason to provide a tutor for Russell, if they select him. Although, much to the dismay of Raiders fans, they could have accomplished the same thing by restructuring Brooks' contract, playing him the first half of the season, and simply saying "Hey Jamarcus, see what Aaron's doing out there? Don't do that."
In other Raiders news, Jerry Porter has changed his number from #84 to #81 and claims to be refocused after last season's falling out with the Raiders coaching staff. Maybe he should change the name on the back of his jersey to "Don't Throw Here" since he probably won't be paying attention to the QB anyways. Randy Moss also reportedly told new coach Steve Sarksian over the phone that "he won't play for a 31 year old coach". I'm sure Jamarcus Russell is thrilled reading all of this.
Fantasy Impact: Lotta ifs here. Assuming this is paving the way for Russell to be the next Raiders QB, it'll be a camp battle between Andrew Walter and Russell for the starting Raiders QB position as it sits right now. As I mentioned before, the Raiders might look into the veteran QB market. Randy Moss would be a very risky WR3 in either scenario, if he's even on the team. If Moss departs, Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter will sit atop the depth chart at WR, with Doug Gabriel set to compete to start as well. If a solid veteran is signed and starts, Curry could be a nice late round sleeper. If Russell starts, all Raiders WRs become guys to monitor on the waiver wire since they won't be worth much to start. If I had to guess, LaMont Jordan's job should be safe, but the regime change might lead to a different running game philosophy (thank God for this after last season, huh Oakland?) that might or might not suit Jordan's strengths. Too many unknowns about this organzation right now.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
My Fantasy Baseball Team, Thus Far
I'm in keeper league for fantasy baseball, and this is the 2nd year of its existance. We are a 12 team league, use 5x5 scoring in a rotisserie format, and draft each year in a snake format. Our keepers are determined by the round they were drafted in the previous year, and if they are kept in a consective year, they're assigned a 1st round value for the 1st, 2nd round value for the 2nd, etc. I finished first last year, so I drafted 12th. We draft on a message board, so we get about a round done a day. Unfortunately, one of our members had a stepfather pass away, so we're giving him 2 weeks until we start the draft up again. My best wishes go to him and his family.
So far I've compiled the following team:
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (2nd round keeper)
2B - Howie Kendrick (drafted 7th round), Jeff Kent (drafted 11th round)
SS - Empty
3B - Hank Blalock (drafted 13th round), B.J. Upton (drafted 14th round)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper), Alex Rios (drafted 5th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (10th round keeper), Jake Peavy (drafted 3rd round), Curt Schilling (drafted 8th round), John Patterson (drafted 12th round)
RP - Joe Nathan (drafted 3rd round), Takashi Saito (drafted 10th round)
Prior to the draft, I decided to trade Vernon Wells (6th round keeper) and Chone Figgins (2nd round keeper) for Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper). This was just a straight up Wells for Soriano trade for me since I had no intention of keeping Figgins. This will be the move that defines my team, because since I already had Joe Mauer in the 6th round, I would have kept Wells in the 7th round, which is actually a 22 player difference since I pick at the end of the odd rounds. I already regret this decision, not because I don't think Soriano is a better fantasy OF than Wells (there's no question about that), but because of the value attached to the player. Soriano is not 66 players better than Wells per their keeper value, so this looks bad right now. This is my first offseason in a keeper baseball league, so it's definitely a learning lesson.
Keepers (C, 1B, OF, SP): Soriano and Teixeira are elite bats. Soriano will probably not hit much above .280, which is slightly better than a great fantasy team average over a season, so he definitely won't hurt that catagory. He should be great in runs scored, HRs, and SBs. He's not going to get 40-40 again after admitting he ran more at the end of last year to achieve that, but 30-30 seems reasonable, with 30 being on the low end for his HRs. Hitting leadoff will limit his RBI chances, but he should knock in at least 80 runs with his power. Teixeira had a horrible start to last year, but he was back in normal form in the 2nd half. .300/100/40/100 is within reach. Soriano is a bit of a value at #12 overall given he'll go top 5 in most drafts, and Teixeira at #13 is about right. Mauer is going to be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball for the next 5-10 years, and keeping him in the 6th round is great value. Webb came into his own and is a top 10 pitcher, so keeping him in the 10th round is outstanding. He'll probably suffer a slight dropoff in his ratios, but he has good infield defense behind him and pitches in a fairly weak offensive division. All in all, this gave my team a nice start heading into the draft.
2B - Given this is a keeper league, youth tends to win out over proven players at times during the draft. I was guilty of that when I selected Kendrick over Kent, but he has .300/20/20 potential, and at 2B those numbers would put him right behind Utley as the 2nd best fantasy 2B. I don't expect him to get there this year, but he should be a solid 2nd tier 2B this year with room for improvement. He's a favorite to be my keeper for next year as a 7th rounder. Jeff Kent has be falling too far in drafts this year, and I couldn't pass him up in the 11th round. That's way too far for a solid 2B to fall, especially one hitting cleanup. He was injured last year and remains a risk, but he was still very productive when healthy. Kent provides a great backup in case Kendrick flops this year, or if Kendrick fullfills potential I'll have trade bait on my hands, which is great at a position as shallow as 2B.
SS - The top 8 options (Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, H. Ramirez, Furcal, Rollins, B. Hall, M. Young) were either kept or drafted by the time I got my first pick at the end of the 3rd round, so there was no rush, but I'm regetting waiting so long to take one. Every decent one is gone now, so I'll be looking at boom/bust picks such as Johnny Peralta and Bobby Crosby now. I really wanted Stephen Drew, but I picked Kent instead. Sure enough, Drew was gone several picks later. We'll see how that pans out.
3B - The top 5 options (A-Rod, Wright, Miggy Cabrera, A-Ram, Atkins) were all kept or drafted, just like the top 8 SS, and there's a pretty solid dropoff just like SS so I waited until later on to take one. I considered Blalock, Chavez, and Encarnacion with this pick, but I like Blalock the best. Chavez disappoints every year and will never be the offensive stud he was projected to be, plus he seems to be slightly injury prone to boot. Encarnacion is an exciting prospect, but his defense seems to be a distraction and I dunno where he stands in the organization right now. Blalock's star has faded the last two years, but he seems to have re-dedicated himself under the eye of Ron Washington and seems to be focused again this year. I like his chances to bounce back offensively, with the potential of doing such in a big way. I had him last year when he turned in his worst professional season, but this is a case of where fantasy owners MUST have a short memory and not boycott players because they failed them once.
OF - I probably should have gone Thome with my 5th round pick, but again age got the best of me and I went with Alex Rios instead. I considered Matsui as well, but wrist injuries are troublesome for hitters and often adversely affect their power. Rios broke out in a big way last year until a staph infection killed his season. He'll be out to prove last year was not a fluke, and while he won't post the RBI numbers that Matsui will, he'll be pretty close to 15 steals while staying close to him in all other catagories. I really wanted Markakis as my 3rd OF, but he was drafted a few players ahead of where I wanted to take him. I have a hole left in my OF, and I plan to load up on a few younger talents like Hermida and Chris B. Young and hope one of them breaks out.
SP - I'm very strong here. Peavy represents huge upside for where he's falling in drafts this year, and while his shoulder comes with risk, his ERA last year was way out of whack with his career numbers and his peripherals last year. He has a chance to be a dominant ace again this year, and with the consistent Webb leading my staff, I can afford to find out. Schilling is a great #3 who should be motivated this year for one last contract run as his current deal expires at the end of the year. His ERA won't be much under 4, but his K rate and WHIP remain strong, plus he pitches for a team that will win a lot of ballgames. John Patterson could be one of the steals this year. He doesn't have the upside that Peavy does, but he pitches in a great pitcher's ballpark and is only one season removed from a 3.13 ERA. Wins will be a problem, but he's another big K pitcher who maintains a solid WHIP as well. If he's healthy, he'll turn in a great year. I have 2 sure things and 2 risks with a ton of upside here.
RP - I'm not a big fan of drafting closers up high, especially since so many quality options start the year on the waiver wire each season, but no player stood out to me like Nathan did. The closer run in our draft had just started, and I miraculously landed arguably the best closer as the 4th one taken. Given I had 22 picks left til my next selection, and with keepers included over 60 players were gone, it wasn't a bad choice. Saito is a good 2nd option. If he repeats last year, he'll be a top closer all year long. He has pretty good job security, and he actually has good stuff unlike most Japanese pitchers who rely more on deception. I plan on taking Broxton later who would close if Saito disappoints, and who is also a great RP in a roto league since he has an a elite K-rate along with low ratios. I prefer taking two closers to start the year, drafting 2 elite setup men later on, and then plucking a 3rd closer off the waiver wire once the season starts.
I need to add an additional starter or two, a SS, and some OF help when the draft starts back up. We'll see how it turns out!
So far I've compiled the following team:
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (2nd round keeper)
2B - Howie Kendrick (drafted 7th round), Jeff Kent (drafted 11th round)
SS - Empty
3B - Hank Blalock (drafted 13th round), B.J. Upton (drafted 14th round)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper), Alex Rios (drafted 5th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (10th round keeper), Jake Peavy (drafted 3rd round), Curt Schilling (drafted 8th round), John Patterson (drafted 12th round)
RP - Joe Nathan (drafted 3rd round), Takashi Saito (drafted 10th round)
Prior to the draft, I decided to trade Vernon Wells (6th round keeper) and Chone Figgins (2nd round keeper) for Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper). This was just a straight up Wells for Soriano trade for me since I had no intention of keeping Figgins. This will be the move that defines my team, because since I already had Joe Mauer in the 6th round, I would have kept Wells in the 7th round, which is actually a 22 player difference since I pick at the end of the odd rounds. I already regret this decision, not because I don't think Soriano is a better fantasy OF than Wells (there's no question about that), but because of the value attached to the player. Soriano is not 66 players better than Wells per their keeper value, so this looks bad right now. This is my first offseason in a keeper baseball league, so it's definitely a learning lesson.
Keepers (C, 1B, OF, SP): Soriano and Teixeira are elite bats. Soriano will probably not hit much above .280, which is slightly better than a great fantasy team average over a season, so he definitely won't hurt that catagory. He should be great in runs scored, HRs, and SBs. He's not going to get 40-40 again after admitting he ran more at the end of last year to achieve that, but 30-30 seems reasonable, with 30 being on the low end for his HRs. Hitting leadoff will limit his RBI chances, but he should knock in at least 80 runs with his power. Teixeira had a horrible start to last year, but he was back in normal form in the 2nd half. .300/100/40/100 is within reach. Soriano is a bit of a value at #12 overall given he'll go top 5 in most drafts, and Teixeira at #13 is about right. Mauer is going to be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball for the next 5-10 years, and keeping him in the 6th round is great value. Webb came into his own and is a top 10 pitcher, so keeping him in the 10th round is outstanding. He'll probably suffer a slight dropoff in his ratios, but he has good infield defense behind him and pitches in a fairly weak offensive division. All in all, this gave my team a nice start heading into the draft.
2B - Given this is a keeper league, youth tends to win out over proven players at times during the draft. I was guilty of that when I selected Kendrick over Kent, but he has .300/20/20 potential, and at 2B those numbers would put him right behind Utley as the 2nd best fantasy 2B. I don't expect him to get there this year, but he should be a solid 2nd tier 2B this year with room for improvement. He's a favorite to be my keeper for next year as a 7th rounder. Jeff Kent has be falling too far in drafts this year, and I couldn't pass him up in the 11th round. That's way too far for a solid 2B to fall, especially one hitting cleanup. He was injured last year and remains a risk, but he was still very productive when healthy. Kent provides a great backup in case Kendrick flops this year, or if Kendrick fullfills potential I'll have trade bait on my hands, which is great at a position as shallow as 2B.
SS - The top 8 options (Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, H. Ramirez, Furcal, Rollins, B. Hall, M. Young) were either kept or drafted by the time I got my first pick at the end of the 3rd round, so there was no rush, but I'm regetting waiting so long to take one. Every decent one is gone now, so I'll be looking at boom/bust picks such as Johnny Peralta and Bobby Crosby now. I really wanted Stephen Drew, but I picked Kent instead. Sure enough, Drew was gone several picks later. We'll see how that pans out.
3B - The top 5 options (A-Rod, Wright, Miggy Cabrera, A-Ram, Atkins) were all kept or drafted, just like the top 8 SS, and there's a pretty solid dropoff just like SS so I waited until later on to take one. I considered Blalock, Chavez, and Encarnacion with this pick, but I like Blalock the best. Chavez disappoints every year and will never be the offensive stud he was projected to be, plus he seems to be slightly injury prone to boot. Encarnacion is an exciting prospect, but his defense seems to be a distraction and I dunno where he stands in the organization right now. Blalock's star has faded the last two years, but he seems to have re-dedicated himself under the eye of Ron Washington and seems to be focused again this year. I like his chances to bounce back offensively, with the potential of doing such in a big way. I had him last year when he turned in his worst professional season, but this is a case of where fantasy owners MUST have a short memory and not boycott players because they failed them once.
OF - I probably should have gone Thome with my 5th round pick, but again age got the best of me and I went with Alex Rios instead. I considered Matsui as well, but wrist injuries are troublesome for hitters and often adversely affect their power. Rios broke out in a big way last year until a staph infection killed his season. He'll be out to prove last year was not a fluke, and while he won't post the RBI numbers that Matsui will, he'll be pretty close to 15 steals while staying close to him in all other catagories. I really wanted Markakis as my 3rd OF, but he was drafted a few players ahead of where I wanted to take him. I have a hole left in my OF, and I plan to load up on a few younger talents like Hermida and Chris B. Young and hope one of them breaks out.
SP - I'm very strong here. Peavy represents huge upside for where he's falling in drafts this year, and while his shoulder comes with risk, his ERA last year was way out of whack with his career numbers and his peripherals last year. He has a chance to be a dominant ace again this year, and with the consistent Webb leading my staff, I can afford to find out. Schilling is a great #3 who should be motivated this year for one last contract run as his current deal expires at the end of the year. His ERA won't be much under 4, but his K rate and WHIP remain strong, plus he pitches for a team that will win a lot of ballgames. John Patterson could be one of the steals this year. He doesn't have the upside that Peavy does, but he pitches in a great pitcher's ballpark and is only one season removed from a 3.13 ERA. Wins will be a problem, but he's another big K pitcher who maintains a solid WHIP as well. If he's healthy, he'll turn in a great year. I have 2 sure things and 2 risks with a ton of upside here.
RP - I'm not a big fan of drafting closers up high, especially since so many quality options start the year on the waiver wire each season, but no player stood out to me like Nathan did. The closer run in our draft had just started, and I miraculously landed arguably the best closer as the 4th one taken. Given I had 22 picks left til my next selection, and with keepers included over 60 players were gone, it wasn't a bad choice. Saito is a good 2nd option. If he repeats last year, he'll be a top closer all year long. He has pretty good job security, and he actually has good stuff unlike most Japanese pitchers who rely more on deception. I plan on taking Broxton later who would close if Saito disappoints, and who is also a great RP in a roto league since he has an a elite K-rate along with low ratios. I prefer taking two closers to start the year, drafting 2 elite setup men later on, and then plucking a 3rd closer off the waiver wire once the season starts.
I need to add an additional starter or two, a SS, and some OF help when the draft starts back up. We'll see how it turns out!
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Chargers Hire Norv Turner
The Martyball era of the San Diego Chargers is now over, and Schottenheimer has officially been replaced by Norv Turner. Turner has been a head coach twice before, amassing a 58-82-1 record between the Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders. He hasn't had a team as talented as the Chargers before, though. The main knock on him in the past was the lack of discipline his teams have had. However, he is a great offensive mind who engineered the dynamic Cowboys offense in the 90s, helped an Oakland offense overachieve in the 2005 season, and then he stopped by in San Francisco last year and helped turn around their offense in just the one season he was there.
He made a great defensive coordinator hire in Ted Cotrell, who is a 3-4 guru and will help maintain continuity in the talented SD defense. Their front 7 is as good as anyone in the NFL, although their secondary needs a bit of help and some additional talent. Turner also kept their new offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, the old RB coach. Shelmon will have a great tutor as Turner will control the offense.
The pieces are in place, both in positional talent and solid offensive and defensive minds, for the Chargers to take that next leap from playoff team to SB contender. It remains to be seen if Turner is the one to bring it all together and do what Schottenheimer couldn't for this underachieving team.
Fantasy Impact: This is great news for the Chargers offensive players. As mentioned before, Turner has been in charge of some good offenses in the past, and I expect him to help mold Phillip Rivers into a top notch NFL QB. Turner has also always engineered a powerful running game, so Tomlinson and Michael Turner, if the Burner stays with SD, should continue piling up great numbers. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits of the continued improvement of Rivers. Rivers should provide solid value as a QB1 drafted after the big names are gone, Tomlinson will remain the unquestioned #1 RB on draft boards next year, Gates should re-emerge as the unquestioned #1 TE, and Vincent Jackson is shaping up to be a nice sleeper to grab later in the draft as a WR3.
This isn't such great news for the 49ers offensive players. Alex Smith started to show promise last year, and Turner did what he could in the passing game with an undertalented bunch. Their only truly talented WR, Antonio Bryant, didn't help things either with his continued erratic behavior. Alex Smith was looking like a great QB2 to target, but I believe the offensive improvement will be stalled in a varying degree depending on who the 49ers hire to succede Turner. Their WR coach, Jerry Sullivan, is expected to be the top candidate right now and would help maintain continuity in their offensive system. It'd be a huge step back if they tried to alter their system yet again after showing major progress last year, but indications are that they won't do that. Their offensive line is mostly young and talented, save Larry Allen, who's still productive when healthy. That being said, I do expect Gore to regress from last year, but he's still safely within the top 10 RBs. He's a bowling ball with breakaway speed, proving he hasn't lost much of a step after multiple knee surgeries in college. Alex Smith drops down the QB2 list, but is still someone to consider with a lower QB1 ceiling. I have a feeling Frank Gore won't live up to his draft status if he remains in the top 5, but since it's possible he'll end up there again with the lack of elite RB options, he's worth considering after LT/LJ/SJax are off the board. Bryant isn't anything more than a WR4 with his inconsistent play and behavior, and Vernon Davis' star is dulled a bit, but he is still a breakout candidate after the bigger TE names are off the board and should be a lower TE1 next season at worst.
He made a great defensive coordinator hire in Ted Cotrell, who is a 3-4 guru and will help maintain continuity in the talented SD defense. Their front 7 is as good as anyone in the NFL, although their secondary needs a bit of help and some additional talent. Turner also kept their new offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, the old RB coach. Shelmon will have a great tutor as Turner will control the offense.
The pieces are in place, both in positional talent and solid offensive and defensive minds, for the Chargers to take that next leap from playoff team to SB contender. It remains to be seen if Turner is the one to bring it all together and do what Schottenheimer couldn't for this underachieving team.
Fantasy Impact: This is great news for the Chargers offensive players. As mentioned before, Turner has been in charge of some good offenses in the past, and I expect him to help mold Phillip Rivers into a top notch NFL QB. Turner has also always engineered a powerful running game, so Tomlinson and Michael Turner, if the Burner stays with SD, should continue piling up great numbers. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits of the continued improvement of Rivers. Rivers should provide solid value as a QB1 drafted after the big names are gone, Tomlinson will remain the unquestioned #1 RB on draft boards next year, Gates should re-emerge as the unquestioned #1 TE, and Vincent Jackson is shaping up to be a nice sleeper to grab later in the draft as a WR3.
This isn't such great news for the 49ers offensive players. Alex Smith started to show promise last year, and Turner did what he could in the passing game with an undertalented bunch. Their only truly talented WR, Antonio Bryant, didn't help things either with his continued erratic behavior. Alex Smith was looking like a great QB2 to target, but I believe the offensive improvement will be stalled in a varying degree depending on who the 49ers hire to succede Turner. Their WR coach, Jerry Sullivan, is expected to be the top candidate right now and would help maintain continuity in their offensive system. It'd be a huge step back if they tried to alter their system yet again after showing major progress last year, but indications are that they won't do that. Their offensive line is mostly young and talented, save Larry Allen, who's still productive when healthy. That being said, I do expect Gore to regress from last year, but he's still safely within the top 10 RBs. He's a bowling ball with breakaway speed, proving he hasn't lost much of a step after multiple knee surgeries in college. Alex Smith drops down the QB2 list, but is still someone to consider with a lower QB1 ceiling. I have a feeling Frank Gore won't live up to his draft status if he remains in the top 5, but since it's possible he'll end up there again with the lack of elite RB options, he's worth considering after LT/LJ/SJax are off the board. Bryant isn't anything more than a WR4 with his inconsistent play and behavior, and Vernon Davis' star is dulled a bit, but he is still a breakout candidate after the bigger TE names are off the board and should be a lower TE1 next season at worst.
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