The Tampa Bay Devil Rays activated 2B/OF B.J. Upton from the DL today.
For serious, yo.
Fantasy Impact: He'll start in CF tonight. He reportedly had much improved speed to first base, clocking in around 4.2 seconds compared to 5 seconds just a day or two ago. That's a pretty big difference, and obviously he felt just fine today after his game last night. Get him back in your lineup.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Welcome Back! Thursday In Review
I get broken in slowly with only a handful of games last night. It was nice to have something to watch again...I can only take so much bad TV.
Roy Halladay - 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. He's still struggling. He used to be an automatic start every time out, but don't let his history force you into starting him without thinking about it. He's proving that he's not on his game right now, but as I wrote in my buy low column, he's too good when healthy not to turn it around sometime soon. If you own him, I wouldn't start him against teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers unless he gives you a reason to.
Alex Rios - 3/4, solo HR (18). With a .299 AVG, he's not quite hitting at the same pace he was last year before getting hurt, but he's developed more power with 18 HR and also has kicked in 9 SB. I had him pegged at 25/15 heading into the season, and while my SB total is about on par, he's surprised us all by heading towards a 30 HR season. He should remain a solid 2nd tier fantasy OF for the next several years as he's finally arrived at age 26.
Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI. The start of a big 2nd half? I sure hope so.
David Ortiz - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI. A nice game last night, but Ortiz has revealed that he has a torn meniscus in his right knee. He suffered the injury at some point during last season, but he said it's bothering him more this season. His .319 AVG is great, but his power is well down as he's only hit 14 HR so far this year. Unfortunately surgery is the only way to fix this issue, so I believe owners are in for a down year from Big Papi, at least in the power department. He also fouled a ball of his bad knee last night, so hopefully he'll play tonight.
Jon Garland - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (7). Garland keeps pumping out quality starts, and has been very good outside of the blowup in his last outing. Like I've said before, the stats just don't match up here, but he is what he is and he's worth using. The bullpen did their best to blow it, giving up 5 runs in the 9th until Jenks was called upon to get the last out, but they held on and Garland picked up his 7th win.
Jeremy Guthrie - 3 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. You knew it was coming. Shockingly, this is his first non-quality start since he moved into the rotation in May, which is extremely impressive. Unfortunately, I believe he's going to have more bad outings like this from here on out as teams figure him out. I'm not going to overreact to one start, so for those of you not looking to sell high (or if you just can't sell high with him), let's just treat this as the one bad start he's had so far.
Jim Thome - 2/4, solo HR (15). He's hitting like he's finally recovered from his back injury. If he puts together a nice hot streak (which he's been doing since before the AS break), and if your team is in contention, I still suggest trying to move him for a player less likely to break down for your stretch run. I'm not saying he'll definitely get hurt, but given the issues he battles each year and his "old" age, probability says he'll run into more health issues, even as just a DH.
Jermaine Dye - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). Hopefully he's finally healthy. The White Sox could really use a hot streak out of him as they look to deal him. Considering that he's a veteran player, he'll most likely be dealt to a team in contention, which means moving to a better offense. US Cellular is a great HR park, but other than that changing, a trade will likely increase his fantasy value a bit. Nothing to write home about, however. His health is more important, but he's worth using again if you've been reserving him. In fact, he's not a bad buy low guy with the horrible numbers and the fact he's coming off an injury if you're looking for a lower end OF to fill out your roster.
Andy Pettitte - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, W (5). He's still struggling out there, although this does qualify as progress, even if it was against Tampa Bay. If he's healthy, he'll continue to get better, although I think his ERA will hover around 4.00 the rest of the season.
James Shields - 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. The Yankees were not a good matchup for him, and I had him benched last night. I'm very happy I did with this line, although he always pitches deep into ballgames and doesn't get completely blown up. The HR has been his problem...he's allowed at least 2 in 4 of his last 7 starts. This is the 5th time in 6 starts he's allowed 4 ER or more, but I think he'll settle down. Just don't use him in those tough AL East matchups.
Bobby Abreu - 3/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (6). Let's hope, for once and for all, that he's finally getting hot and is ready to redeem his miserable first half. He's hitting a scorching .483 this month, so the stats say that he's ready to turn this thing around.
Brendan Harris - 2/4, 2 R. Harris continues to be a nice mixed league option at SS as he's hitting .313 with 8 HR, 39 RBI, 42 R, and 3 SB. His AVG is real nice, and while he's not great in any other catagory, he hits 3rd for the Rays behind Iwamura and Crawford, so he should have plenty of RBI chances.
Bronson Arroyo - 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. It seems like he's back on track. While he won't repeat the success he had last year for most of the season, I think he's redeemed himself back into a worthy spot in your mixed league rotation. That's not a bad line against a very good Mets offense.
Orlando Hernandez - 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (5). He's cruising right along being a very solid mixed league pitcher along the way.
Chad Gaudin - 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K. I said those walks were going to hurt him. Given his poor performance recently, it wouldn't be a bad idea to look for a different pitcher on the waiver wire such as Bronson Arroyo, or his opposition last night, Scott Baker.
Scott Baker - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. That's 4 good starts in his last 5 outings. I'd be tempted to pick him up in mixed leagues at this point since he might have finally figured things out. He has the talent to be a fairly solid end-of-the-rotation starter that you use in the right matchups.
Michael Cuddyer - 4/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. It's a shame that all those hits didn't parlay into more fantasy help, but his owners will take the 4 hit performance.
Andrew Miller - 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. He wasn't efficient last night, but he's continuing to pitch well enough to be worth starting in mixed leagues, especially with the powerful Detroit offense supporting him. They didn't get it done for him last night, but they will more times than not.
Felix Hernandez - 6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. A little generous with the hits, but another solid performance from Hernandez last night, especially against the great Detroit offense. I'd plug him in against all but elite teams now as he's finally re-established quality mixed league value.
J.J. Putz - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, SV (25). He got his bad outing out of the way in the AS game and is continuing his reign as the top performance fantasy closer of 2007.
Roy Halladay - 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. He's still struggling. He used to be an automatic start every time out, but don't let his history force you into starting him without thinking about it. He's proving that he's not on his game right now, but as I wrote in my buy low column, he's too good when healthy not to turn it around sometime soon. If you own him, I wouldn't start him against teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers unless he gives you a reason to.
Alex Rios - 3/4, solo HR (18). With a .299 AVG, he's not quite hitting at the same pace he was last year before getting hurt, but he's developed more power with 18 HR and also has kicked in 9 SB. I had him pegged at 25/15 heading into the season, and while my SB total is about on par, he's surprised us all by heading towards a 30 HR season. He should remain a solid 2nd tier fantasy OF for the next several years as he's finally arrived at age 26.
Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI. The start of a big 2nd half? I sure hope so.
David Ortiz - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI. A nice game last night, but Ortiz has revealed that he has a torn meniscus in his right knee. He suffered the injury at some point during last season, but he said it's bothering him more this season. His .319 AVG is great, but his power is well down as he's only hit 14 HR so far this year. Unfortunately surgery is the only way to fix this issue, so I believe owners are in for a down year from Big Papi, at least in the power department. He also fouled a ball of his bad knee last night, so hopefully he'll play tonight.
Jon Garland - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (7). Garland keeps pumping out quality starts, and has been very good outside of the blowup in his last outing. Like I've said before, the stats just don't match up here, but he is what he is and he's worth using. The bullpen did their best to blow it, giving up 5 runs in the 9th until Jenks was called upon to get the last out, but they held on and Garland picked up his 7th win.
Jeremy Guthrie - 3 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. You knew it was coming. Shockingly, this is his first non-quality start since he moved into the rotation in May, which is extremely impressive. Unfortunately, I believe he's going to have more bad outings like this from here on out as teams figure him out. I'm not going to overreact to one start, so for those of you not looking to sell high (or if you just can't sell high with him), let's just treat this as the one bad start he's had so far.
Jim Thome - 2/4, solo HR (15). He's hitting like he's finally recovered from his back injury. If he puts together a nice hot streak (which he's been doing since before the AS break), and if your team is in contention, I still suggest trying to move him for a player less likely to break down for your stretch run. I'm not saying he'll definitely get hurt, but given the issues he battles each year and his "old" age, probability says he'll run into more health issues, even as just a DH.
Jermaine Dye - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). Hopefully he's finally healthy. The White Sox could really use a hot streak out of him as they look to deal him. Considering that he's a veteran player, he'll most likely be dealt to a team in contention, which means moving to a better offense. US Cellular is a great HR park, but other than that changing, a trade will likely increase his fantasy value a bit. Nothing to write home about, however. His health is more important, but he's worth using again if you've been reserving him. In fact, he's not a bad buy low guy with the horrible numbers and the fact he's coming off an injury if you're looking for a lower end OF to fill out your roster.
Andy Pettitte - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, W (5). He's still struggling out there, although this does qualify as progress, even if it was against Tampa Bay. If he's healthy, he'll continue to get better, although I think his ERA will hover around 4.00 the rest of the season.
James Shields - 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. The Yankees were not a good matchup for him, and I had him benched last night. I'm very happy I did with this line, although he always pitches deep into ballgames and doesn't get completely blown up. The HR has been his problem...he's allowed at least 2 in 4 of his last 7 starts. This is the 5th time in 6 starts he's allowed 4 ER or more, but I think he'll settle down. Just don't use him in those tough AL East matchups.
Bobby Abreu - 3/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (6). Let's hope, for once and for all, that he's finally getting hot and is ready to redeem his miserable first half. He's hitting a scorching .483 this month, so the stats say that he's ready to turn this thing around.
Brendan Harris - 2/4, 2 R. Harris continues to be a nice mixed league option at SS as he's hitting .313 with 8 HR, 39 RBI, 42 R, and 3 SB. His AVG is real nice, and while he's not great in any other catagory, he hits 3rd for the Rays behind Iwamura and Crawford, so he should have plenty of RBI chances.
Bronson Arroyo - 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. It seems like he's back on track. While he won't repeat the success he had last year for most of the season, I think he's redeemed himself back into a worthy spot in your mixed league rotation. That's not a bad line against a very good Mets offense.
Orlando Hernandez - 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (5). He's cruising right along being a very solid mixed league pitcher along the way.
Chad Gaudin - 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K. I said those walks were going to hurt him. Given his poor performance recently, it wouldn't be a bad idea to look for a different pitcher on the waiver wire such as Bronson Arroyo, or his opposition last night, Scott Baker.
Scott Baker - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. That's 4 good starts in his last 5 outings. I'd be tempted to pick him up in mixed leagues at this point since he might have finally figured things out. He has the talent to be a fairly solid end-of-the-rotation starter that you use in the right matchups.
Michael Cuddyer - 4/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. It's a shame that all those hits didn't parlay into more fantasy help, but his owners will take the 4 hit performance.
Andrew Miller - 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. He wasn't efficient last night, but he's continuing to pitch well enough to be worth starting in mixed leagues, especially with the powerful Detroit offense supporting him. They didn't get it done for him last night, but they will more times than not.
Felix Hernandez - 6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. A little generous with the hits, but another solid performance from Hernandez last night, especially against the great Detroit offense. I'd plug him in against all but elite teams now as he's finally re-established quality mixed league value.
J.J. Putz - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, SV (25). He got his bad outing out of the way in the AS game and is continuing his reign as the top performance fantasy closer of 2007.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
B.J. Upton NOT Activated From The DL
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have chosen not to activate 2B/CF B.J. Upton from the DL today.
Fantasy Impact: Make sure to keep using your previous backup 2B for now. He's scheduled to play at least one more day in the minors. I'll update the site as soon as he's actually ready to come up.
Fantasy Impact: Make sure to keep using your previous backup 2B for now. He's scheduled to play at least one more day in the minors. I'll update the site as soon as he's actually ready to come up.
Rich Harden To The DL
The Oakland Athletics placed SP Rich Harden on the DL with a right shoulder strain.
In related news, the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning.
Fantasy Impact: If you have an open DL slot, there's no good reason not to stash him there. However, if you don't, drop him. I just can't see him having enough fantasy value, if he returns this season, to warrant wasting a bench spot on for however long he'll be out this time.
In related news, the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning.
Fantasy Impact: If you have an open DL slot, there's no good reason not to stash him there. However, if you don't, drop him. I just can't see him having enough fantasy value, if he returns this season, to warrant wasting a bench spot on for however long he'll be out this time.
Lastings Milledge To Be Called Up
The New York Mets will promote OF Lastings Milledge from AA.
Fantasy Impact: Milledge missed a bunch of time in the minors this year with a sprained ligament in his foot, but he's recovered nicely and posted a .342 AVG with 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 6 SB in his games both before and after the foot injury. He'll take over as the Mets starting LF, and with the aging and often hurt Moises Alou, he could be there for a while. When Alou gets back I'm not sure what will happen with Milledge given Beltran is entrenched in CF, and Green was acquired to start in RF. The Mets would be better off moving Milledge to RF and benching Green since Green has hardly impressed, but I doubt they'll do that to the veteran. At any rate, Milledge will have fringe mixed league value while starting every day. I'm not sure how ready he is given his mediocre performance last year, but his power/steal skill combination is definitely worth monitoring.
Fantasy Impact: Milledge missed a bunch of time in the minors this year with a sprained ligament in his foot, but he's recovered nicely and posted a .342 AVG with 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 6 SB in his games both before and after the foot injury. He'll take over as the Mets starting LF, and with the aging and often hurt Moises Alou, he could be there for a while. When Alou gets back I'm not sure what will happen with Milledge given Beltran is entrenched in CF, and Green was acquired to start in RF. The Mets would be better off moving Milledge to RF and benching Green since Green has hardly impressed, but I doubt they'll do that to the veteran. At any rate, Milledge will have fringe mixed league value while starting every day. I'm not sure how ready he is given his mediocre performance last year, but his power/steal skill combination is definitely worth monitoring.
Mark Teixeira, B.J. Upton, Brad Lidge Activated From The DL
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have activated 2B B.J. Upton from the DL
Fantasy Impact: He'll be starting in CF tonight, so get him back into your lineup.
The Texas Rangers will activate 1B Mark Teixeira from the DL, and the Houston Astros will activate closer Brad Lidge from the DL on Friday.
Fantasy Impact: I'm going to try to report these DL activations a day ahead of time if I know about it so that you can clear a spot for them on your roster. Get both back in your lineup. Lidge should return as the closer since Wheeler hardly helped his cause during Lidge's absence.
Fantasy Impact: He'll be starting in CF tonight, so get him back into your lineup.
The Texas Rangers will activate 1B Mark Teixeira from the DL, and the Houston Astros will activate closer Brad Lidge from the DL on Friday.
Fantasy Impact: I'm going to try to report these DL activations a day ahead of time if I know about it so that you can clear a spot for them on your roster. Get both back in your lineup. Lidge should return as the closer since Wheeler hardly helped his cause during Lidge's absence.
My Fantasy Teams
Alright, here's a rundown of my two teams so far. Both teams are from a 12 team, 5x5 rotisserie scoring league. I've put how I acquired each player in parenthesis.
4 Keeper League (2nd place, 4.5 games out of 1st):
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (1st round keeper)
2B - B.J. Upton (14th round pick)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (15th round pick)
3B - Alex Gordon (Free Agent)
OF - Carlos Beltran (Traded Alfonso Soriano/Joe Blanton for him)
OF - Manny Ramirez (Traded Alex Rios/Brandon Webb for Manny Ramirez/Ben Sheets)
OF - Hideki Matsui (Traded Hunter Pence/Howie Kendrick/Kevin Gregg for Hideki Matsui/Derrek Lee)
UTIL - Derrek Lee (See Above)
UTIL - Dmitri Young (Free Agent)
Bench - Josh Hamilton (Free Agent), Chris B. Young (17th round pick), Mike Cameron (Free Agent)
SP - Jake Peavy (3rd round pick)
SP - Ben Sheets (See Manny Ramirez)
SP - Tim Lincecum (Free Agent)
RP - Joe Nathan (4th round pick)
RP - Takashi Saito (9th round pick)
RP - Manny Corpas (Free Agent)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (Traded Scot Shields/Dan Johnson for him)
Bench - Yovani Gallardo (Free Agent)
DL - Curt Schilling (8th round pick)
That trade for Matsui and Lee was huge for my offense, plus I get both Teixeira and Upton back from the DL after the AS break. That trade seems a bit lopsided, but the player trading him to me wasn't going to keep either guy, and Hunter Pence can be kept indefinitely for a 22nd round pick, so he has a ton of value in a league of that sort. It's a stupid keeper rule to be able to keep someone indefinitely at whatever round they were acquired in, but I didn't make it. I wanted to hang onto him, but I was offered enough to move him so that I'd have a chance to win it all. I have a decent amount of room to move up in the offensive catagories, so I have some room to grow here, especially with all the offensive upgrades I've made through my trade and getting those 2 guys back from the DL. I'm done making moves for now. I have an empty roster spot, and I'm eyeing Zito and Arroyo on my waiver wire. Arroyo gets the Mets tonight, so I didn't want to grab him yet. If he pitches well tonight, I'll add him and go with him over Zito. If he doesn't, given his overall numbers, I can wait til he gets a better matchup to pick him up, and then keep an eye on who Zito gets next.
Redraft League (2nd place, 0.5 games out of 1st):
C - Bengie Molina (Free Agent)
1B - Albert Pujols (Traded David Ortiz and Dan Wheeler for him after his horrendous start)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round pick)
SS - Troy Tulowitski (Free Agent)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round pick)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round pick)
OF - Jeff Francouer (11th round pick)
OF - Eric Byrnes (13th round pick)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round pick)
Bench - Willy Taveras (20th round pick)
SP - Carlos Zambrano (Traded John Maine and Nick Markakis for him)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round pick)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round pick)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round pick)
SP - James Shields (Free Agent)
SP - Oliver Perez (Free Agent)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round pick)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round pick)
RP - Hideki Okajima (Free Agent)
RP - Scot Shields (18th round pick)
DL - A.J. Burnett (Traded Al Reyes for him)
My biggest mistake was jumping the gun and dropping Kevin Gregg after the Marlins traded for Benitez. If I still had Gregg, my bullpen would be fine. As is, I only have one closer. I've been trying to trade for one for quite a while, but I just can't find any takers since everyone seems to overvalue saves in this league, although I knew that during the draft when mediocre closers were flying off the board in the middle rounds. My offense is fine except for steals, but I do have Taveras on the bench and have plugged him in when Bay and Francouer were slumping and got a few steals there. I don't worry much about steals and saves because I have won without them before, but I really need to jump on the next closer that emerges so I can try to pick up a few points in that catagory.
4 Keeper League (2nd place, 4.5 games out of 1st):
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (1st round keeper)
2B - B.J. Upton (14th round pick)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (15th round pick)
3B - Alex Gordon (Free Agent)
OF - Carlos Beltran (Traded Alfonso Soriano/Joe Blanton for him)
OF - Manny Ramirez (Traded Alex Rios/Brandon Webb for Manny Ramirez/Ben Sheets)
OF - Hideki Matsui (Traded Hunter Pence/Howie Kendrick/Kevin Gregg for Hideki Matsui/Derrek Lee)
UTIL - Derrek Lee (See Above)
UTIL - Dmitri Young (Free Agent)
Bench - Josh Hamilton (Free Agent), Chris B. Young (17th round pick), Mike Cameron (Free Agent)
SP - Jake Peavy (3rd round pick)
SP - Ben Sheets (See Manny Ramirez)
SP - Tim Lincecum (Free Agent)
RP - Joe Nathan (4th round pick)
RP - Takashi Saito (9th round pick)
RP - Manny Corpas (Free Agent)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (Traded Scot Shields/Dan Johnson for him)
Bench - Yovani Gallardo (Free Agent)
DL - Curt Schilling (8th round pick)
That trade for Matsui and Lee was huge for my offense, plus I get both Teixeira and Upton back from the DL after the AS break. That trade seems a bit lopsided, but the player trading him to me wasn't going to keep either guy, and Hunter Pence can be kept indefinitely for a 22nd round pick, so he has a ton of value in a league of that sort. It's a stupid keeper rule to be able to keep someone indefinitely at whatever round they were acquired in, but I didn't make it. I wanted to hang onto him, but I was offered enough to move him so that I'd have a chance to win it all. I have a decent amount of room to move up in the offensive catagories, so I have some room to grow here, especially with all the offensive upgrades I've made through my trade and getting those 2 guys back from the DL. I'm done making moves for now. I have an empty roster spot, and I'm eyeing Zito and Arroyo on my waiver wire. Arroyo gets the Mets tonight, so I didn't want to grab him yet. If he pitches well tonight, I'll add him and go with him over Zito. If he doesn't, given his overall numbers, I can wait til he gets a better matchup to pick him up, and then keep an eye on who Zito gets next.
Redraft League (2nd place, 0.5 games out of 1st):
C - Bengie Molina (Free Agent)
1B - Albert Pujols (Traded David Ortiz and Dan Wheeler for him after his horrendous start)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round pick)
SS - Troy Tulowitski (Free Agent)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round pick)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round pick)
OF - Jeff Francouer (11th round pick)
OF - Eric Byrnes (13th round pick)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round pick)
Bench - Willy Taveras (20th round pick)
SP - Carlos Zambrano (Traded John Maine and Nick Markakis for him)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round pick)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round pick)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round pick)
SP - James Shields (Free Agent)
SP - Oliver Perez (Free Agent)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round pick)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round pick)
RP - Hideki Okajima (Free Agent)
RP - Scot Shields (18th round pick)
DL - A.J. Burnett (Traded Al Reyes for him)
My biggest mistake was jumping the gun and dropping Kevin Gregg after the Marlins traded for Benitez. If I still had Gregg, my bullpen would be fine. As is, I only have one closer. I've been trying to trade for one for quite a while, but I just can't find any takers since everyone seems to overvalue saves in this league, although I knew that during the draft when mediocre closers were flying off the board in the middle rounds. My offense is fine except for steals, but I do have Taveras on the bench and have plugged him in when Bay and Francouer were slumping and got a few steals there. I don't worry much about steals and saves because I have won without them before, but I really need to jump on the next closer that emerges so I can try to pick up a few points in that catagory.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Buy Low, Sell High!
My promised Buy Low/Sell High column is here, so let's get to it. The main thing to keep in mind here is not what the player has done so far and where his stats sit, but moreso what he'll do for you once he's on your team.
BUY LOW
Travis Hafner - He'll be a bit harder to buy low on given the big name, and the big production his name has brought the last two seasons, but his numbers thus far are mediocre at .262, 14 HR, 57 RBI, and 49 R. His RBI and R are there, but his AVG and HR are not, and those two stats tend to stand out more to owners. See if you can get him at a discount because his 2nd half should resemble his past 2 seasons of production.
Manny Ramirez - Much like Hafner, his numbers in the 1st half don't resemble his previous seasons. He's hitting .284 with 11 HR, 45 RBI, and 45 R. His HR are down the most, but he's almost always a .300+ hitter, and his 45 RBIs are well off his usual pace. Don't bid too aggressively for him due to the fact he's 35 years old now, but I can't imagine him not improving on those numbers in the 2nd half.
Vernon Wells - It's going to be a bit harder to get him given his recent power surge, but his overall numbers are quite disappointing for those who don't follow recent trends as closely. His .253 AVG and 13 HR are not what they should be, so he's due for a bigger 2nd half. Like I've mentioned before he has a spotty track record over the past several years, but he has the talent to put together a much better 2nd half, and I'd bet that he'll come through on that.
Jason Bay - I've ranted and written about him numerous times here, so you know the story. He's hitting .254 with 13 HR. Again, like most of his list, the 56 RBI and 43 R are about in line with what you expect from him. However, more owners will be inclined to look at the terrible AVG and low HR total, and you can capitalize off of that. He's a streaky hitter, but given the subpar first half, he should be much more good than bad in the 2nd half of the season.
Andruw Jones - He's had the most brutal 1st half of them all, posting a .211 AVG. His HR/FB% is well down from his career norm, so we can only assume that it will even out in the 2nd half. The 15 HR and 54 RBI are not bad at all, but he's due to hit at least .250 this half, with more longballs and run production.
Paul Konerko - This won't work at all for the people paying attention to recent trends with as well as he's been hitting, but the very disappointing .262 AVG might allow you to get him at a discount. He's been hitting much better for over a month now, so he's already on the way up. Expect .280+ and 15 HR the rest of the way.
Brian McCann - This is another tricky one, but given his gaudy stats from last year, you might be able to find an owner down on him. He's been a pretty solid fantasy catcher with 9 HR and 49 RBI, but he's not matching what he did in his first full season last year. Expect him to keep improving and take a shot at getting him for a lower price than normal.
Adam LaRoche - He's quietly getting back on his game, and he can be had very cheap given his horrible .239 AVG. He's hitting.407 with 3 HR already this month, and he had a big 2nd half last year with a .323, 19 HR, 48 RBI split after the AS break. Get him for cheap and hope he does the same thing. Perhaps he and Bay will get it going together.
Roy Oswalt - The 3.53 ERA and 1.38 are not at all what owners were looking for when drafting Oswalt, likely as their ace. He went through a rough stretch of games, but he bounced back and pitched well against the Mets in his last outing. He's done being an elite K pitcher, but his ratios should be lower in the 2nd half, and you might be able to get him from a frustrated owner.
Felix Hernandez - He was pretty terrible after returning from elbow tenderness/soreness, but he's looked much better in 3 of his last 4 outings. The peripherals say he's back on top of his game, but his overall numbers are still a bit ugly. He's a risk being so young, but he's worth the gamble if he's re-found himself. I expect a better 2nd half.
Roy Halladay - He comes with probably the most amount of risk on this list, but his 4.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are well above his normal standards. As long as he's healthy, which is a big if from him, I expect a much better 2nd half. As I mentioned before, he's not the best risk for teams looking to make a final move to stay on top, but he's a good risk for teams looking to take on uncertainty to make a big push up the standings.
Chris Carpenter - Carpenter can probably be had very cheaply, and he turned in a very good 2nd rehab start. He might have even been dropped in your league. This is a great guy to trade for (if you can get him cheap) and stash for teams making a run. Given the low price tag I'm assuming he'll cost, he could give you an ace on your staff once he returns. This isn't a muscle or ligament injury...it was a bone spur. That makes a world of difference in shortening recovery time for a pitcher.
Chris Ray - I know I was wrong in saying he was a buy low a while ago as he's continued to struggle, but his peripherals still say that his 1st half performance was bad luck and nothing else. Point to the 4.89 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and get a quality closer for cheap.
SELL HIGH
Magglio Ordonez - He's not going to hit .367 this season. He's going to have a decline in the 2nd half, although I'm not sold it'll be a steep one at all. Still, he hasn't homered since June 2nd, and that's not a fluke...his power hasn't been the same since coming to Detroit. Be selective in who you move him for, but I'd much rather have an established stud OF for the 2nd half such as Vladdy, Holliday, or someone of that status than Ordonez. He'll be a R/RBI force in the middle of that lineup, but his AVG should decline and his power has already started.
Hunter Pence/Ryan Braun/Corey Hart - These guys are only here in redraft leagues...don't move them in keeper leagues unless you don't plan on keeping them. They've put up huge numbers so far, so try to use them to get a proven stud in return. These guys aren't going to hit .350 or post a 30/30 pace all season long, so rid your hands of them before they inevitably start slumping.
Dan Haren - Like I've mentioned before, only move him if you can get a strikeout stud in return as part of a bigger deal. I don't expect a collapse in the 2nd half, but his 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP just won't happen again in the AL over the rest of the year. You could probably find a handful of pitchers that will outperform him the rest of the way.
Chris Young - Pretty much the same as Haren, but I expect him to regress more. His 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are insane, and he's shown a propensity to wear down as the season progresses the last several years. He won't keep this up, but if he's your 3rd or 4th starter, don't worry too much. His value is about as high now as it'll be though, so capitalize on it if you can.
Brad Penny - Exact same situation as Young. Something always seems to happen to him in the 2nd half of the season, and I think his established value right now is as good as it'll get. That 2.39 ERA is due to go over 3.00 by the end of the year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his 2nd half ERA sit around 4.00 or thereabouts.
Jeremy Guthrie - His numbers over 102 IP are great, with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He pitches in the AL East, and he'll be facing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays a lot more in the 2nd half. You won't get much for him straight up, but he's a quality 2nd piece to include in a trade if you're looking to upgrade somewhere.
Chad Cordero/Eric Gagne/David Weathers/Octavio Dotel/Al Reyes - I expect most, if not all, of these guys to be traded by the trading deadline. Ostuka from Texas could be dealt as well. They're all veteran relievers who don't have much of a future closing on their current teams, and they're all pitching well right now with the exception of Reyes who is hurt. Trade them before they are moved and are not closing anymore, whether you use them to upgrade to a closer with more job security, or you use them to upgrade a different position if you're set in the bullpen.
Alan Embree/Antonio Alfonseca - These 2 guys are closers on borrowed time. Use them in a trade while they still have value. Embree is a bit safer to keep his job if Street stays out a while, but Alfonseca is dodging the return of two guys (Gordon, Myers) and won't be closing for much longer.
BUY LOW
Travis Hafner - He'll be a bit harder to buy low on given the big name, and the big production his name has brought the last two seasons, but his numbers thus far are mediocre at .262, 14 HR, 57 RBI, and 49 R. His RBI and R are there, but his AVG and HR are not, and those two stats tend to stand out more to owners. See if you can get him at a discount because his 2nd half should resemble his past 2 seasons of production.
Manny Ramirez - Much like Hafner, his numbers in the 1st half don't resemble his previous seasons. He's hitting .284 with 11 HR, 45 RBI, and 45 R. His HR are down the most, but he's almost always a .300+ hitter, and his 45 RBIs are well off his usual pace. Don't bid too aggressively for him due to the fact he's 35 years old now, but I can't imagine him not improving on those numbers in the 2nd half.
Vernon Wells - It's going to be a bit harder to get him given his recent power surge, but his overall numbers are quite disappointing for those who don't follow recent trends as closely. His .253 AVG and 13 HR are not what they should be, so he's due for a bigger 2nd half. Like I've mentioned before he has a spotty track record over the past several years, but he has the talent to put together a much better 2nd half, and I'd bet that he'll come through on that.
Jason Bay - I've ranted and written about him numerous times here, so you know the story. He's hitting .254 with 13 HR. Again, like most of his list, the 56 RBI and 43 R are about in line with what you expect from him. However, more owners will be inclined to look at the terrible AVG and low HR total, and you can capitalize off of that. He's a streaky hitter, but given the subpar first half, he should be much more good than bad in the 2nd half of the season.
Andruw Jones - He's had the most brutal 1st half of them all, posting a .211 AVG. His HR/FB% is well down from his career norm, so we can only assume that it will even out in the 2nd half. The 15 HR and 54 RBI are not bad at all, but he's due to hit at least .250 this half, with more longballs and run production.
Paul Konerko - This won't work at all for the people paying attention to recent trends with as well as he's been hitting, but the very disappointing .262 AVG might allow you to get him at a discount. He's been hitting much better for over a month now, so he's already on the way up. Expect .280+ and 15 HR the rest of the way.
Brian McCann - This is another tricky one, but given his gaudy stats from last year, you might be able to find an owner down on him. He's been a pretty solid fantasy catcher with 9 HR and 49 RBI, but he's not matching what he did in his first full season last year. Expect him to keep improving and take a shot at getting him for a lower price than normal.
Adam LaRoche - He's quietly getting back on his game, and he can be had very cheap given his horrible .239 AVG. He's hitting.407 with 3 HR already this month, and he had a big 2nd half last year with a .323, 19 HR, 48 RBI split after the AS break. Get him for cheap and hope he does the same thing. Perhaps he and Bay will get it going together.
Roy Oswalt - The 3.53 ERA and 1.38 are not at all what owners were looking for when drafting Oswalt, likely as their ace. He went through a rough stretch of games, but he bounced back and pitched well against the Mets in his last outing. He's done being an elite K pitcher, but his ratios should be lower in the 2nd half, and you might be able to get him from a frustrated owner.
Felix Hernandez - He was pretty terrible after returning from elbow tenderness/soreness, but he's looked much better in 3 of his last 4 outings. The peripherals say he's back on top of his game, but his overall numbers are still a bit ugly. He's a risk being so young, but he's worth the gamble if he's re-found himself. I expect a better 2nd half.
Roy Halladay - He comes with probably the most amount of risk on this list, but his 4.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are well above his normal standards. As long as he's healthy, which is a big if from him, I expect a much better 2nd half. As I mentioned before, he's not the best risk for teams looking to make a final move to stay on top, but he's a good risk for teams looking to take on uncertainty to make a big push up the standings.
Chris Carpenter - Carpenter can probably be had very cheaply, and he turned in a very good 2nd rehab start. He might have even been dropped in your league. This is a great guy to trade for (if you can get him cheap) and stash for teams making a run. Given the low price tag I'm assuming he'll cost, he could give you an ace on your staff once he returns. This isn't a muscle or ligament injury...it was a bone spur. That makes a world of difference in shortening recovery time for a pitcher.
Chris Ray - I know I was wrong in saying he was a buy low a while ago as he's continued to struggle, but his peripherals still say that his 1st half performance was bad luck and nothing else. Point to the 4.89 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and get a quality closer for cheap.
SELL HIGH
Magglio Ordonez - He's not going to hit .367 this season. He's going to have a decline in the 2nd half, although I'm not sold it'll be a steep one at all. Still, he hasn't homered since June 2nd, and that's not a fluke...his power hasn't been the same since coming to Detroit. Be selective in who you move him for, but I'd much rather have an established stud OF for the 2nd half such as Vladdy, Holliday, or someone of that status than Ordonez. He'll be a R/RBI force in the middle of that lineup, but his AVG should decline and his power has already started.
Hunter Pence/Ryan Braun/Corey Hart - These guys are only here in redraft leagues...don't move them in keeper leagues unless you don't plan on keeping them. They've put up huge numbers so far, so try to use them to get a proven stud in return. These guys aren't going to hit .350 or post a 30/30 pace all season long, so rid your hands of them before they inevitably start slumping.
Dan Haren - Like I've mentioned before, only move him if you can get a strikeout stud in return as part of a bigger deal. I don't expect a collapse in the 2nd half, but his 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP just won't happen again in the AL over the rest of the year. You could probably find a handful of pitchers that will outperform him the rest of the way.
Chris Young - Pretty much the same as Haren, but I expect him to regress more. His 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are insane, and he's shown a propensity to wear down as the season progresses the last several years. He won't keep this up, but if he's your 3rd or 4th starter, don't worry too much. His value is about as high now as it'll be though, so capitalize on it if you can.
Brad Penny - Exact same situation as Young. Something always seems to happen to him in the 2nd half of the season, and I think his established value right now is as good as it'll get. That 2.39 ERA is due to go over 3.00 by the end of the year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his 2nd half ERA sit around 4.00 or thereabouts.
Jeremy Guthrie - His numbers over 102 IP are great, with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He pitches in the AL East, and he'll be facing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays a lot more in the 2nd half. You won't get much for him straight up, but he's a quality 2nd piece to include in a trade if you're looking to upgrade somewhere.
Chad Cordero/Eric Gagne/David Weathers/Octavio Dotel/Al Reyes - I expect most, if not all, of these guys to be traded by the trading deadline. Ostuka from Texas could be dealt as well. They're all veteran relievers who don't have much of a future closing on their current teams, and they're all pitching well right now with the exception of Reyes who is hurt. Trade them before they are moved and are not closing anymore, whether you use them to upgrade to a closer with more job security, or you use them to upgrade a different position if you're set in the bullpen.
Alan Embree/Antonio Alfonseca - These 2 guys are closers on borrowed time. Use them in a trade while they still have value. Embree is a bit safer to keep his job if Street stays out a while, but Alfonseca is dodging the return of two guys (Gordon, Myers) and won't be closing for much longer.
Monday, July 9, 2007
Sunday's Recap - All Star Break Is Here
Well, at least there's two nights of baseball for us, still. The Home Run Derby is tonight, and then the All Star game tomorrow night. I enjoy watching all of the great players in these games since I don't see most of them with any regularity. Wednesday sucks, though, since there's absolutely nothing on that day. It gives us fantasy baseball players a chance to step back, relax for a few days, and then evaluate our weaknesses and prep our teams for the stretch run. Or, if you're out of it and are in a keeper league, it's time to acquire a few building blocks for next year. On to the recap of the last day of action before the break:
Ervin Santana - 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Absolutely disgusting, even if it was against the Yankees. Santana is just too good of a pitcher to have a 5.97 ERA, and given the home/road splits I've mentioned before (3.42 ERA at home, 8.59 ERA on the road), it's obvious that his mental state is the problem here. Because of this, Angels manager Mike Scioscia has talked about removing him from the rotation. Those of you spot starting him at home should take note of this as Scioscia is obviously tired of the subpar performance. No official announcement has been made yet, so don't drop him yet if you own him.
Chien Ming Wang - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (9). Wang continues to disappoint in the K catagory by posting a measley 48 K in 104 1/3 IP, but with the 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and the 9 wins, he's been a very good 3 catagory pitcher. He should have no problem maintaining this pace in the 2nd half.
Alex Rodriguez - 2/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (30). He took the HR lead back from Prince heading into the break. There's been no question that he's been the fantasy MVP this year with a .317 AVG, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 79 R, and 9 SB. Not only that, but he was often taken in the middle of the 1st round behind guys like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, and sometimes trendy youngsters like Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera. I had him 2nd on my draft board behind Pujols as I felt his subpar year last year was causing him to become undervalued in the draft this year, and sure enough that was the case. I wasn't expecting him to be this good, obviously.
Hideki Matsui - 1/3, 3 run HR (11). Matsui has been a mild disappointment, only hitting .274. However, he's now up to 11 HR and 53 RBI along with 46 R, so he's right in line with all his other stats. He should be a lock for .290/10/50/50 after the All Star break, so he's a great piece to go after in a keeper league for teams looking to shore up their lineup, especially if you dangle keeper material in return.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, his streak had to end somewhere, and it came against the powerful Detroit offense. He had been on quite a roll prior to this start, putting together 6 straight appearances of 2 ER or less. No worries...a great offense got to him yesterday.
Manny Ramirez - 0/1, K. Ramirez didn't start due to a stomach ailment, but he took some antibiotics and was able to pinch hit. He'll be fine after the break health-wise, and us fantasy owners have to hope that he'll kick it into gear with his bat. The .284 AVG with 11 HR and 45 RBI has been a complete downer so far. His doubles total is up as he's hit 20 already this year, compared to 27 last year and 30 the year before. Hopefully those will become HR in the 2nd half.
Josh Barfield - 2/3, SB (9). He's been a huge disappointment after starting the year as a popular 2B sleeper. He did hit .317 last month, although didn't hit a HR and had only 2 SB. He has a chance to turn it around hitting in a great offense, so don't completely forget about him if you're struggling at 2B in the 2nd half.
Travis Hafner - 1/3, BB. I'm going to label him the 2006 Mark Teixeira of 2007...a bigtime hitter who puts in a very disappointing first half, but explodes to normal numbers in the 2nd half. Hafner had 2 huge seasons prior to this one, but his production has inexplicably dropped off the map with only 11 2B and 14 HR so far to go along with his .262 AVG. I think he is the biggest and best buy low opportunity out there right now. He's hitting .303 so far this month, so his AVG is there. I think the power will follow.
Aaron Harang - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. An outstanding performance from Harang, only to be wasted by David Weathers when he blew the save in the 9th. Harang is right on track with his breakthrough season last year, and he's posting a career-best 1.18 WHIP as well. Owners are getting exactly what they wanted from him this year so far.
Chris Young - 1/5, HR (13). 6 LOB yesterday as he continues to struggle. As I've mentioned before, I think he'll improve in the 2nd half on his .233 AVG. With 13 HR and 9 SB he's providing decent fantasy output from those catagories, but he's not doing enough in the others to be worth starting, and the AVG is a huge drag. Keep him rostered because he should start to figure things out more in the 2nd half. He's a great guy to target in keeper leagues as his breakthrough season might be next year.
Felipe Lopez - He's hitting .333 with 2 SB this month. I liked him heading into this year as a solid SB guy in the middle infield, but the .242 AVG is a disaster and he's only stolen 11 bases. Odds are he's not going to be relevant in fantasy leagues again, but don't completely forget about him if he starts to get his AVG up and steals bases again. He's eligible at both 2B and SS, which is handy.
Carlos Zambrano - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He was wild from the get-go last night, and just didn't have his A game with him. It's a shame because he could have put up quite a stat-line against the Pirates, but it's also a good thing as a better offense would have lit him up yesterday. He was due for a let down, but yet still turned in a pretty good outing thanks to the matchup.
Jason Bay - 2/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (13). He had good numbers against Zambrano, so I threw him in there yesterday and he responded with his best game in over a month. It's a shame that the All Star break comes directly after he finally hits well, so let's hope this is a springboard for a much better 2nd half. Behind Hafner, I believe he's the 2nd best buy low guy out there right now. He's had too good of a career up to the 1st half this year to suggest this is some sort of major problem.
Javier Vazquez - 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. 2 straight complete games as Vazquez is in the middle of his best stretch in a White Sox uniform. Owners have to be loving this as he's pitching like a fantasy ace recently. Like I've said before, his long history shows that this won't keep up. Perhaps he's logged enough quality starts in a row here for you to be able to sell high in some fashion, but I doubt it. Wouldn't hurt to try.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 run HR (24). He's alternating blah and great months. He hit .271 with 6 HR in April, .314 with 10 HR in May, .247 with 4 HR in June, and he's up to .417 with 4 HR in July. Overall, it's equated to .295 with 24 HR and 74 RBI, so he's improving on last year's power numbers while keeping his AVG at a nice number.
Jim Thome - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (14). Dang it, Thome was also starting to get hot when the All Star break hits. He was hitting .333 with 4 HR and 13 RBI already this month as he got hot for the first time since back in April. Hopefully this will continue after the break. It appears his back is finally healthy again, although further problems seem likely. If you're a contending team, you might look to deal him for a younger power hitter to avoid any further issues with him.
Roy Oswalt - 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (8). A Carlos Beltran HR ruined what was turning out to be a terrific start from Oswalt. He finally showed some progress from what had been a long string of mediocre starts, and I believe he could be had at a discount given that. He's likely to bounce back with a much stronger 2nd half than how he pitched in the 1st half.
Jose Reyes - 2/5, 2 SB (46). He's definitely justifying the high price tag (most likely a top 3 pick) due to the insane amount of SB he's put in so far. With a .307 AVG and 47 walks (.387 OBP) in 86 games, he's taken a big step forward in being a true leadoff man for the Mets. After the 19 HR last year I'm sure many people were expecting 20-25 HR this year, but he's only delivered 4 HR so far. The reason is that he's turning himself into a more well-rounded leadoff at the sacrifice of his power. He's looking to get on base and set the table rather than swinging for the fences. Fantasy owners might complain a bit, but thanks to the position he plays, the tons of SB, and the great R/AVG numbers, I personally believe he's worth it.
Scott Kazmir - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Ridiculous. He can't even pitch well against the Royals. His 4.41 ERA and 1.58 WHIP would be on the waiver wire if it weren't for the big name, just as I said about Dontrelle Willis. The only thing you can do is bench him and hopefully he can figure something out over the break. He hasn't had a truly good start in over a month, and he's been insanely inefficient with his pitches.
Jonny Gomes - 4/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Tampa Bay has been smart and given him consistent playing time for a while now, and he's responded doing what he does best...getting on base and hitting for power. He has 8 HR, 10 2B, and 22 RBI in 133 AB so far this year. He's not going to hit much above .260, but he has legit power and should be owned in mixed leagues while he's playing regularly.
Barry Zito - 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K. Dontrelle Willis and Scott Kazmir, anyone? Who would own his 4.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP if it weren't for his name? I outlined his vs. AL/vs. NL team splits earlier, and I still think he'll be a quality fantasy pitcher in the 2nd half of the season. He had control problems against Cincy two times ago, and STL roughed him up along with some more control problems last time out. He was dropped in one of my leagues, and I'm tempted to pick him up to see how he fares after the break. I'd keep him benched unless it's a great matchup next time out, though.
Albert Pujols - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's gone power cold, again. He hasn't hit a HR in 22 straight games, and he's frustrating owners. He's hitting .345 this month, and he's driving in an adequate amount of runs, but he's just not hitting like we expect him to this season in the overall sense. The HRs should come, though.
Kevin Millwood - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. His overall numbers are ugly, but he's turned in 4 straight quality starts, and he's won 4 of his last 5 apperances. I don't think he'll remain consistent enough to become rosterable, but I think he should be considered in spot-starting situations.
Nick Markakis - 2/4, 1 RBI. He was a very popular sleeper heading into the season, but much like Mark Teahen, a big hot streak and limited numbers made him look better than he was. He's hitting .280 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, and 9 SB, so he's been pretty good, but he's not putting up the 25/100 line or better that some people were expecting. He is what he is right now, a solid 3rd OF, but at 23 years of age, he has some room for growth. Unless he has a big finish, he'll be a better pick next year after the hype has died down.
Kaz Matsui - 2/4, solo HR (3). He's been quietly putting together quite a nice fantasy season for a 2B, hitting .312 with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 39 R, and 16 SB in only 189 AB. He's finally becoming the fantasy player that many expected when he was brought over by the New York Mets. There's no reason he should be left unowned in any league.
Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. He was due for one of these. He actually got into an altercation in this game that got him ejected. A throw home got away from the catcher, and a Seattle player was standing nearby. Blanton fairly innocently shoved him out of the way to pick up the ball, and then Ellison from Seattle shoved him back, starting a bench-clearing brawl. Given the joke that is suspensions for starting pitchers, he won't miss any time if he is punished by the league.
Russell Martin - 2/2, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (11). With a .306 AVG, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 51 R, and 16 SB, Martin is having a dream season for catchers. I definitely made a mistake not paying more attention to him. He had very nice numbers last year for a 23 year old catcher, and to think that he'll get better with age is a bit scary.
Greg Maddux - 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Maddux was screwed by a very stingy umpire last night, and his performance indicates that. I wouldn't worry too much about this start and he'll continue being a solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year.
Bob Wickman - 1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Thanks to his 16/20 SV conversion ratio, he's not giving Bobby Cox any reason to remove him from the closer's role despite Rafael Soriano being a much better bet to close. If Wickman weren't closing, odds are he wouldn't be a very good reliever anyways. Fantasy owners are paying a price for the saves he's providing this year as he now has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP.
Andrew Jones - 3/3, 2 R, 2 SB (5). Jones is coming to life, so your buy low window is closing quickly. Act now because you'll get vintage Jones in the 2nd half.
Ervin Santana - 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Absolutely disgusting, even if it was against the Yankees. Santana is just too good of a pitcher to have a 5.97 ERA, and given the home/road splits I've mentioned before (3.42 ERA at home, 8.59 ERA on the road), it's obvious that his mental state is the problem here. Because of this, Angels manager Mike Scioscia has talked about removing him from the rotation. Those of you spot starting him at home should take note of this as Scioscia is obviously tired of the subpar performance. No official announcement has been made yet, so don't drop him yet if you own him.
Chien Ming Wang - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (9). Wang continues to disappoint in the K catagory by posting a measley 48 K in 104 1/3 IP, but with the 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and the 9 wins, he's been a very good 3 catagory pitcher. He should have no problem maintaining this pace in the 2nd half.
Alex Rodriguez - 2/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (30). He took the HR lead back from Prince heading into the break. There's been no question that he's been the fantasy MVP this year with a .317 AVG, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 79 R, and 9 SB. Not only that, but he was often taken in the middle of the 1st round behind guys like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, and sometimes trendy youngsters like Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera. I had him 2nd on my draft board behind Pujols as I felt his subpar year last year was causing him to become undervalued in the draft this year, and sure enough that was the case. I wasn't expecting him to be this good, obviously.
Hideki Matsui - 1/3, 3 run HR (11). Matsui has been a mild disappointment, only hitting .274. However, he's now up to 11 HR and 53 RBI along with 46 R, so he's right in line with all his other stats. He should be a lock for .290/10/50/50 after the All Star break, so he's a great piece to go after in a keeper league for teams looking to shore up their lineup, especially if you dangle keeper material in return.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, his streak had to end somewhere, and it came against the powerful Detroit offense. He had been on quite a roll prior to this start, putting together 6 straight appearances of 2 ER or less. No worries...a great offense got to him yesterday.
Manny Ramirez - 0/1, K. Ramirez didn't start due to a stomach ailment, but he took some antibiotics and was able to pinch hit. He'll be fine after the break health-wise, and us fantasy owners have to hope that he'll kick it into gear with his bat. The .284 AVG with 11 HR and 45 RBI has been a complete downer so far. His doubles total is up as he's hit 20 already this year, compared to 27 last year and 30 the year before. Hopefully those will become HR in the 2nd half.
Josh Barfield - 2/3, SB (9). He's been a huge disappointment after starting the year as a popular 2B sleeper. He did hit .317 last month, although didn't hit a HR and had only 2 SB. He has a chance to turn it around hitting in a great offense, so don't completely forget about him if you're struggling at 2B in the 2nd half.
Travis Hafner - 1/3, BB. I'm going to label him the 2006 Mark Teixeira of 2007...a bigtime hitter who puts in a very disappointing first half, but explodes to normal numbers in the 2nd half. Hafner had 2 huge seasons prior to this one, but his production has inexplicably dropped off the map with only 11 2B and 14 HR so far to go along with his .262 AVG. I think he is the biggest and best buy low opportunity out there right now. He's hitting .303 so far this month, so his AVG is there. I think the power will follow.
Aaron Harang - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. An outstanding performance from Harang, only to be wasted by David Weathers when he blew the save in the 9th. Harang is right on track with his breakthrough season last year, and he's posting a career-best 1.18 WHIP as well. Owners are getting exactly what they wanted from him this year so far.
Chris Young - 1/5, HR (13). 6 LOB yesterday as he continues to struggle. As I've mentioned before, I think he'll improve in the 2nd half on his .233 AVG. With 13 HR and 9 SB he's providing decent fantasy output from those catagories, but he's not doing enough in the others to be worth starting, and the AVG is a huge drag. Keep him rostered because he should start to figure things out more in the 2nd half. He's a great guy to target in keeper leagues as his breakthrough season might be next year.
Felipe Lopez - He's hitting .333 with 2 SB this month. I liked him heading into this year as a solid SB guy in the middle infield, but the .242 AVG is a disaster and he's only stolen 11 bases. Odds are he's not going to be relevant in fantasy leagues again, but don't completely forget about him if he starts to get his AVG up and steals bases again. He's eligible at both 2B and SS, which is handy.
Carlos Zambrano - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He was wild from the get-go last night, and just didn't have his A game with him. It's a shame because he could have put up quite a stat-line against the Pirates, but it's also a good thing as a better offense would have lit him up yesterday. He was due for a let down, but yet still turned in a pretty good outing thanks to the matchup.
Jason Bay - 2/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (13). He had good numbers against Zambrano, so I threw him in there yesterday and he responded with his best game in over a month. It's a shame that the All Star break comes directly after he finally hits well, so let's hope this is a springboard for a much better 2nd half. Behind Hafner, I believe he's the 2nd best buy low guy out there right now. He's had too good of a career up to the 1st half this year to suggest this is some sort of major problem.
Javier Vazquez - 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. 2 straight complete games as Vazquez is in the middle of his best stretch in a White Sox uniform. Owners have to be loving this as he's pitching like a fantasy ace recently. Like I've said before, his long history shows that this won't keep up. Perhaps he's logged enough quality starts in a row here for you to be able to sell high in some fashion, but I doubt it. Wouldn't hurt to try.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 run HR (24). He's alternating blah and great months. He hit .271 with 6 HR in April, .314 with 10 HR in May, .247 with 4 HR in June, and he's up to .417 with 4 HR in July. Overall, it's equated to .295 with 24 HR and 74 RBI, so he's improving on last year's power numbers while keeping his AVG at a nice number.
Jim Thome - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (14). Dang it, Thome was also starting to get hot when the All Star break hits. He was hitting .333 with 4 HR and 13 RBI already this month as he got hot for the first time since back in April. Hopefully this will continue after the break. It appears his back is finally healthy again, although further problems seem likely. If you're a contending team, you might look to deal him for a younger power hitter to avoid any further issues with him.
Roy Oswalt - 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (8). A Carlos Beltran HR ruined what was turning out to be a terrific start from Oswalt. He finally showed some progress from what had been a long string of mediocre starts, and I believe he could be had at a discount given that. He's likely to bounce back with a much stronger 2nd half than how he pitched in the 1st half.
Jose Reyes - 2/5, 2 SB (46). He's definitely justifying the high price tag (most likely a top 3 pick) due to the insane amount of SB he's put in so far. With a .307 AVG and 47 walks (.387 OBP) in 86 games, he's taken a big step forward in being a true leadoff man for the Mets. After the 19 HR last year I'm sure many people were expecting 20-25 HR this year, but he's only delivered 4 HR so far. The reason is that he's turning himself into a more well-rounded leadoff at the sacrifice of his power. He's looking to get on base and set the table rather than swinging for the fences. Fantasy owners might complain a bit, but thanks to the position he plays, the tons of SB, and the great R/AVG numbers, I personally believe he's worth it.
Scott Kazmir - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Ridiculous. He can't even pitch well against the Royals. His 4.41 ERA and 1.58 WHIP would be on the waiver wire if it weren't for the big name, just as I said about Dontrelle Willis. The only thing you can do is bench him and hopefully he can figure something out over the break. He hasn't had a truly good start in over a month, and he's been insanely inefficient with his pitches.
Jonny Gomes - 4/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Tampa Bay has been smart and given him consistent playing time for a while now, and he's responded doing what he does best...getting on base and hitting for power. He has 8 HR, 10 2B, and 22 RBI in 133 AB so far this year. He's not going to hit much above .260, but he has legit power and should be owned in mixed leagues while he's playing regularly.
Barry Zito - 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K. Dontrelle Willis and Scott Kazmir, anyone? Who would own his 4.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP if it weren't for his name? I outlined his vs. AL/vs. NL team splits earlier, and I still think he'll be a quality fantasy pitcher in the 2nd half of the season. He had control problems against Cincy two times ago, and STL roughed him up along with some more control problems last time out. He was dropped in one of my leagues, and I'm tempted to pick him up to see how he fares after the break. I'd keep him benched unless it's a great matchup next time out, though.
Albert Pujols - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's gone power cold, again. He hasn't hit a HR in 22 straight games, and he's frustrating owners. He's hitting .345 this month, and he's driving in an adequate amount of runs, but he's just not hitting like we expect him to this season in the overall sense. The HRs should come, though.
Kevin Millwood - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. His overall numbers are ugly, but he's turned in 4 straight quality starts, and he's won 4 of his last 5 apperances. I don't think he'll remain consistent enough to become rosterable, but I think he should be considered in spot-starting situations.
Nick Markakis - 2/4, 1 RBI. He was a very popular sleeper heading into the season, but much like Mark Teahen, a big hot streak and limited numbers made him look better than he was. He's hitting .280 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, and 9 SB, so he's been pretty good, but he's not putting up the 25/100 line or better that some people were expecting. He is what he is right now, a solid 3rd OF, but at 23 years of age, he has some room for growth. Unless he has a big finish, he'll be a better pick next year after the hype has died down.
Kaz Matsui - 2/4, solo HR (3). He's been quietly putting together quite a nice fantasy season for a 2B, hitting .312 with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 39 R, and 16 SB in only 189 AB. He's finally becoming the fantasy player that many expected when he was brought over by the New York Mets. There's no reason he should be left unowned in any league.
Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. He was due for one of these. He actually got into an altercation in this game that got him ejected. A throw home got away from the catcher, and a Seattle player was standing nearby. Blanton fairly innocently shoved him out of the way to pick up the ball, and then Ellison from Seattle shoved him back, starting a bench-clearing brawl. Given the joke that is suspensions for starting pitchers, he won't miss any time if he is punished by the league.
Russell Martin - 2/2, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (11). With a .306 AVG, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 51 R, and 16 SB, Martin is having a dream season for catchers. I definitely made a mistake not paying more attention to him. He had very nice numbers last year for a 23 year old catcher, and to think that he'll get better with age is a bit scary.
Greg Maddux - 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Maddux was screwed by a very stingy umpire last night, and his performance indicates that. I wouldn't worry too much about this start and he'll continue being a solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year.
Bob Wickman - 1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Thanks to his 16/20 SV conversion ratio, he's not giving Bobby Cox any reason to remove him from the closer's role despite Rafael Soriano being a much better bet to close. If Wickman weren't closing, odds are he wouldn't be a very good reliever anyways. Fantasy owners are paying a price for the saves he's providing this year as he now has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP.
Andrew Jones - 3/3, 2 R, 2 SB (5). Jones is coming to life, so your buy low window is closing quickly. Act now because you'll get vintage Jones in the 2nd half.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
Homer Bailey Optioned To AAA
The Cincinnati Reds optioned starting pitcher Homer Bailey to AAA.
Fantasy Impact: Don't worry, Cincinnati is only doing this to get him a start and keep him fresh during the All Star break. It would have been 8-9 days until he started again, and it's a smart move to keep the rookie on his normal schedule. If you own him, don't drop him because of this. He'll be brought back up for his next start.
Fantasy Impact: Don't worry, Cincinnati is only doing this to get him a start and keep him fresh during the All Star break. It would have been 8-9 days until he started again, and it's a smart move to keep the rookie on his normal schedule. If you own him, don't drop him because of this. He'll be brought back up for his next start.
4th Of July Holiday Action
I apologize again for the lack of posting, but I took a few days off of work and have pretty much avoided the computer over that time period. :) I'll recap the important stuff over the past few days as best I can, and I'll also be back over the All-Star break with the promised sell high/buy low candidates, most likely tomorrow.
Rich Hill - 6 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. The BB/K ratio is solid, so he didn't pitch too badly. Unfortunately, Dmitri Young got to him for a grand slam which blew up his ERA on the day. Like I've said before, the HRs will be a problem for him and will keep his ERA up, but he remains a very good fantasy starter who should provide a good number of wins and a lot of Ks.
Mike Mussina - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Another quality start from Mussina...his 6th in a row. Despite my musings earlier in the season, he's maintaining his value as a solid fantasy starter despite the diminishing velocity on his fastball. He's crafty enough to make it work.
Jason Bartlett - Need a SS in your mixed league? Here's one who's slowly getting noticed. He had a pedestrian first 2 months, but he hit .298 last month, scored 14 runs as he's moved up in the order, and he went 10/1o stealing bases. He's the type of player who needs to hit at least .280 and stay in the top of the order to have fantasy value along with the steals, but since he plays SS, there's some room for error in those catagories. If he can stay in the top of the order, he'll score plenty of runs ahead of Mauer/Morneau/Hunter. Pick him up and see how he does this month...he's only hitting .200 so far, so this might be a short lived thing. He's worth owning to find out, though, if you're weak at SS.
Matt Cain - 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (3). Things should even out a bit in the 2nd half for Matt Cain, and I suggest buying low on him. He went on a huge streak in the 2nd half of last year, posting 7 wins, a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 99 K in 99 1/3 IP. He has the talent to put it together and repeat that performance this year, especially given the bad luck he's had so far in the wins column.
Ryan Howard - Some of his owners might worry about the .256 AVG, but he hit .280 last month and he's hitting .308 this month, so he's back to hitting the way he should. Forget what he did in the first half...he should perform like a top fantasy 1B in the 2nd half of this year.
Ian Snell - 8 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Snell heads into the All Star break with a 2.93 ERA, and he's a perfect example of why the All Star game selection process is a bunch of crap. All teams have to send someone, and while I think that does more harm than good as more qualified players are left out because of that, I don't take too much of an issue with it. The specific problem I have this year is that they chose Freddy Sanchez to be the Pirates representative. Sanchez is hitting .297 with 2 HR and 0 SB. He's not a gold glove defender. There's absolutely nothing special about his game, but he got picked over Snell who posted 7 wins on a bad ballclub, and a sub 3.00 ERA...those are All Star numbers. Instead, Brian Fuentes, who lost his closer's role due to poor pitching, was picked and Hanley Ramirez (.330, 14 HR, 27 SB, 70 R) was left off. They just can't get this thing right.
Matt Capps - He had some struggles for a while, but he's posted 6 straight scoreless appearances which include 4 saves and a win. He'll remain a 2nd tier closer from here on out, only falling short in the K catagory (33 K in 48 1/3 IP).
Travis Hafner - He's quietly hitting .300 this month in 7 games, so that's a big step in the right direction after 2 straight months under .230. He should continue to rebound in the 2nd half and remains a great buy low value.
Chris B. Young - He hit .196 last month, and he's hitting .091 this month. Get him out of your lineup until he starts to warm up. Nobody expected him to hit for AVG in his rookie season this year, but he's hitting rock bottom and needs to be benched until he shows progress.
Troy Tulowitski - He has to be owned now. He hit .303 in May, which was nice, but with 0 HR and 0 SB, he wasn't doing anything to really help fantasy owners. He followed that up with a .289 June, but more importantly he slugged 6 HR and stole 3 bases, finally coming through with a fantasy relevant month. Whether he can keep up the power/speed contribution is questionable, but find out with him in your starting lineup.
Chris Young - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. About as good as it gets from a start. He's been nothing short of unbelievable this year in San Diego.
Andruw Jones - He's slowly breaking out of his slump. 2 straight months of .200ish AVG, but he's hitting .259 this month, which is more in line with what you should expect from him. He's tossed in 3 HR and 8 RBI as well, so go get him while his value is at rock bottom.
Ben Sheets - 6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Yes, this was very disappointing versus the Pirates offense, but the Pirates had the Brewers number this series. He's allowed 4 and 5 ER in his last 2 games, but there's nothing to worry about here. With 14 hits, 2 walks, and 17 Ks in 14 IP over those two starts, he's hardly getting hit hard.
Justin Verlander - 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. You'd figure coming off a big rookie season with a lot of hype that Verlander would be overrated in drafts this year, but he's actually been outperforming his draft position so far. He limited a great Indians offense, and he's going to be among the elite pitchers chosen next year.
C.C. Sabathia - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. The pitching matchup with Verlander didn't materialze, but taking a beating at the hands of the Tigers offense is nothing to worry about.
Matt Morris - 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Things are starting to even out for Morris who raised his 3.55 ERA with this performance. Hopefully you traded him when I suggested back when things are going good (too good) for him. He might settled in as a 3.80 pitcher, but with the lack off offensive support he'll receive, the shaky bullpen, subpar Ks, and the 1.39 WHIP, I just don't see him doing much for your fantasy team.
Bronson Arroyo - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. That's 3 straight quality starts for Arroyo, and he should be owned in all leagues now. He appears to be healthy again, or over whatever was causing his struggles in that bad stretch. He probably won't resume pitching like he did last year, but he should be a solid fantasy pitcher for the back end of your rotation.
John Maine - 7 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, W (10). He's pitching as well as anyone in fantasy baseball this year, and he's proving to be an elite fantasy starter. I told you to sell high due to his command issues he was showing earlier in the year, but he's limiting the walks now, and his peripherals are supporting his great numbers now. Hopefully you got someone good in return. The fact I got Zambrano makes it not look so bad.
Kelvim Escobar - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Back to the same, dominant Escobar that we love. He's had problems in the past with coupling blowup starts together, but he's bouncing back from those better this year, which has helped him turn into a great fantasy starter.
Chad Gaudin - 7 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, W (8). Gaudin's been awesome this year, posting a 2.88 ERA, but these walks are becoming a real concern. Unlike with Maine earlier in the year, he's not K'ing enough hitters to be able to keep pitching around all those baserunners he's allowing. He's posting a 68:48 K:BB ratio and a 1.37 WHIP, so I suspect some bad times lie ahead for Gaudin. Sell if you can.
Brad Penny - 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. I know I've been promoting selling him high for a good while now, but I'm not going to jump all over one start. First of all, all pitchers are going to have starts like this from time to time. Secondly, and something that's actually a concern, Penny developed a blister/skin tear on the index finger of his pitching hand. Hopefully that will keep him out of the All Star game so he can rest up and hopefully put together a great 2nd half. Like I mentioned before, in last year's All Star game, he was putting everything into his fastballs, and that might have caused an arm problem that lead to his 2nd half collapse last year. Him not pitching in the game would be good news for his owners in case he dose something like that again.
Kelly Johnson - It seems as though he's platooning at 2B with Escobar now, starting against RHP. I don't know what to think about this. Odds are they'll face about 4 righties a week, meaning Johnson will play that many games. He's hitting .305 against RHP, which means you'll get quality production out of him. It depends on your situation...if you're scraping the WW for a 2B, you could do a lot worse than a platooning Johnson. If you already have a solid 2B that you're fairly happy with, I'd stay with him instead.
Jason Bay - I'd suggest benching him. He hit .172 last month, and he's hitting .045 this month. You can't keep running him out there because of the big name. However, as soon as he puts together a multi-hit game, I'd get him back in there. He's a very streaky hitter, and once he gets hot, he gets really hot.
Jon Garland - 3 1/3 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. Garland just couldn't lead the Chicago Bears to a victory over the Minnesota Vikings in this one, losing 20-14. I've been telling you for a while that Garland's ERA just didn't match up to most of his peripherals, but unfortunately he decided to even things out in one ugly game. If you've been using him, there's no doubt you're going to be irate at this, but I wouldn't give up on him yet...just be careful who you start him against.
Matt Garza - 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. My spot-start suggestion of Garza earlier in the week panned out great in this one. Garza, like all rookie pitchers, will have his ups and downs, but his K potential is worth gambling on. Make sure he's owned, but be selective in who you start him against. Plus, it's not a certainty that he'll have a permanent rotation spot for the rest of the year.
Alex Rodriguez - 3/4, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (29). He was struggling with his hammy after straining it a bit on a semi-collision at first base, but I think he's fine now.
Andy Pettitte - 5 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. That's 3 starts out of 4 where he's allowed 6 ER or more, so you have to wonder if he's hurting after pitching so well to start the year. I'd bench him for his first start after the break to see what's going on here.
Andrew Miller - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K. Very impressive start against Boston. Again, make sure he's owned, and use rookie pitcher caution with him.
Ryan Braun - 2/5, 2 solo HR (10). He and Pence continue to be ridiculous.
Roy Halladay - 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Yes it came against a powerful Cleveland lineup, but that's 3 straight subpar outings in a row for Halladay. As long as he's not hurt, he'll get back on track soon enough. He's the type of pitcher that carries too much risk for a contending team to own. If you can deal him and get a more consistent ace in return from someone who thinks he'll return to form, do it. On the other side, if you're a team that's looking for a cheaper ace that can carry your staff and launch you up the standings, go after him and absorb the risk.
Wandy Rodriguez - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. I think we have to start paying attention to him now. That's an impressive performance against the Mets, and he's now sporting a 3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 90 K in 104 2/3 IP. Houston's going to prevent wins from being common, but he's starting to show peripherals that indicate he could help fantasy teams. Add him to your radar/staff depending on your situation.
James Shields - 7 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He ran into trouble in the 8th inning after getting the first two outs, so his outing looks a bit worse than it was, plus the worthless Tampa bullpen tacked on another run to his total after he left. He pitched well, but with numerous matchups against the AL East upcoming, I'd move him if you can. I can't see him consistently shutting down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays lineups once he has to face them more often.
Jeff Francis - 5 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. 2 ugly outings in 3 appearances for Francis, but he had to face the red-hot Cubs, and then a tough Philly offense in Colorado. I'd exercise caution and evaluate the matchups for Francis as I don't believe he's an automatic start.
Justin Germano - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. I've been warning you that the 2nd time he faces a team, things could get ugly. Atlanta is now the 2nd team to face him a 2nd time and blow him up. Back to the waiver wire he goes if you haven't been able to package him in a deal yet. He's faced too many teams by this point to worry about playing that matchup game anymore.
Adrian Beltre - He's on fire, hitting 10/15 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 3 R in the last 4 games. Make sure he's unowned in your league. He's a decent lower end 3B in fantasy leagues with 13 HR and 6 SB. He has the talent to have a big 2nd half, but who knows if he'll be motivated to do such.
Casey Blake - He's back on fire again, getting 9 hits in his last 4 games, including 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 8 R. He's continuing to be a quality fantasy 3B in a sea of mediocre fantasy 3B this season.
John Lackey - 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K. Against the Yankees no less. He's back on top of his game after some struggles with the best start of his season. Unfortunately Roger Clemens matched him, so he didn't pick up a win for his effort.
Roger Clemens - 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Another 8 inning start from Clemens, this time against a very good Angels offense. I've been benching him, so while watching these outings on my bench is a bit disappointing, he's re-proved himself as a fantasy starter and should be active now.
Mark Buehrle - 8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, W (6). Vintage start from Buehrle, who's probably on his way out of town now. His contract talks with the team have broken down. He's being very reasonable in his demands, but the White Sox are holding strong and not giving into the no-trade clause that Buehrle wants. Given his durability and willingness to take less than market value, it makes the Sox look bad for not re-signing him, but I think his pitching style, especially as he ages and loses a bit of velocity, is far better suited for the NL. I don't think he'd be able to handle the powerful AL offenses 3 years from now, making the 5 year deal look bad in the future. It's hard to take as a White Sox fan, but I honestly don't think the White Sox are out of line here when you get past the sentimentality. I can only hope they'll get good value from him, and with as well as he's pitching and all the interest, I imagine they'll do well. Their farm system isn't doing so great right now, and this will be a chance to fill it out some.
Paul Konerko - .290, 7 HR last month and now he's at .400 with 3 HR this month. His buy-low window is closed.
Jeff Francouer - He's hitting .310 with 2 HR this month, so he's back hitting well again.
A very nice sign for his owners as he was struggling in the slugging dept the last 2 months.
Khalil Greene - He hit .292 with 6 HR and 17 RBI last month, and he's back at it with a .316 AVG and 2 HR this month. With all the K's and the pitcher's ballpark he plays in, I don't think his AVG over the past month plus is sustainable, but you might as well ride out the hot streak if you're struggling at the SS position, namely if you're a Tejada owner.
Felix Hernandez - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. That's 3 great starts in his last 4 outings, so perhaps Felix is ready to go back to being useable again. They did come against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Oakland, so he hasn't been shutting down great offenses. I would start using him again, but be careful which offenses he's facing until he shuts down a good one.
Rich Harden - 2 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. A terrible return to the rotation for Harden. I watched some of the highlights, and he wasn't hitting his usual velocity. Don't even think about starting him until he puts in a solid outing.
Prince Fielder - 2/4, 2 solo HR (29). So much for that 9 game homerless drought.
David Ortiz - 2/2, 2 run HR (14). With 2 doubles and a HR in the past two games, hopefully Ortiz is ending his power drought. He's been very quiet for too long, and in a related note, hopefully that will get Manny going as well. Neither are hitting worth a damn right now.
Carlos Delgado - Another slumping hitter showing signs of life. He has 15 hits in his last 10 games, and has 3 HR and 5 2B mixed in. He has his AVG back up to .241, but the recent hot streak probably closed his 2nd buy low window of the season.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. He's back struggling again with 10 walks in his last 3 outings, and 9 ER allowed in in his past 2 outings. He'll get it turned around again soon.
Homer Bailey - 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. A much better outing from Bailey, although a pinch-hitter ended his night early after only 87 pitches. Hopefully he'll build on this, but exercise caution on the matchup when he next pitches, if you need to start him.
Gil Meche - 6 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. After looking at the numbers more, I'm starting to sour on Meche. He's only posted 5 quality starts in his last 10 outings, and his WHIP has hovered around an un-impressive 1.30 pretty much all year. He's a nice innings eater, but he's not helping fantasy teams right now.
Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (4). Not at his best last night, but he pitched well enough for the win and is continuing to move in the right direction after being lit up in 3 straight starts.
Manny Corpas - 1 IP, 3 K, SB (1). He's the new Colorado closer with Fuentes hurting, so go get him. He should be solid, somewhat similar to Matt Capps judging from his numbers. He has a solid 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but only 33 K in 43 IP.
Erik Bedard - 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K. Dead arm? What dead arm? I think he revived it.
Hanley Ramirez - 4/4, 2 R, 2 SB (27). He hit 2 HRs the day before, so obviously someone besides me is annoyed that Freddy Sanchez is on the All Star team.
Rich Hill - 6 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. The BB/K ratio is solid, so he didn't pitch too badly. Unfortunately, Dmitri Young got to him for a grand slam which blew up his ERA on the day. Like I've said before, the HRs will be a problem for him and will keep his ERA up, but he remains a very good fantasy starter who should provide a good number of wins and a lot of Ks.
Mike Mussina - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Another quality start from Mussina...his 6th in a row. Despite my musings earlier in the season, he's maintaining his value as a solid fantasy starter despite the diminishing velocity on his fastball. He's crafty enough to make it work.
Jason Bartlett - Need a SS in your mixed league? Here's one who's slowly getting noticed. He had a pedestrian first 2 months, but he hit .298 last month, scored 14 runs as he's moved up in the order, and he went 10/1o stealing bases. He's the type of player who needs to hit at least .280 and stay in the top of the order to have fantasy value along with the steals, but since he plays SS, there's some room for error in those catagories. If he can stay in the top of the order, he'll score plenty of runs ahead of Mauer/Morneau/Hunter. Pick him up and see how he does this month...he's only hitting .200 so far, so this might be a short lived thing. He's worth owning to find out, though, if you're weak at SS.
Matt Cain - 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (3). Things should even out a bit in the 2nd half for Matt Cain, and I suggest buying low on him. He went on a huge streak in the 2nd half of last year, posting 7 wins, a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 99 K in 99 1/3 IP. He has the talent to put it together and repeat that performance this year, especially given the bad luck he's had so far in the wins column.
Ryan Howard - Some of his owners might worry about the .256 AVG, but he hit .280 last month and he's hitting .308 this month, so he's back to hitting the way he should. Forget what he did in the first half...he should perform like a top fantasy 1B in the 2nd half of this year.
Ian Snell - 8 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Snell heads into the All Star break with a 2.93 ERA, and he's a perfect example of why the All Star game selection process is a bunch of crap. All teams have to send someone, and while I think that does more harm than good as more qualified players are left out because of that, I don't take too much of an issue with it. The specific problem I have this year is that they chose Freddy Sanchez to be the Pirates representative. Sanchez is hitting .297 with 2 HR and 0 SB. He's not a gold glove defender. There's absolutely nothing special about his game, but he got picked over Snell who posted 7 wins on a bad ballclub, and a sub 3.00 ERA...those are All Star numbers. Instead, Brian Fuentes, who lost his closer's role due to poor pitching, was picked and Hanley Ramirez (.330, 14 HR, 27 SB, 70 R) was left off. They just can't get this thing right.
Matt Capps - He had some struggles for a while, but he's posted 6 straight scoreless appearances which include 4 saves and a win. He'll remain a 2nd tier closer from here on out, only falling short in the K catagory (33 K in 48 1/3 IP).
Travis Hafner - He's quietly hitting .300 this month in 7 games, so that's a big step in the right direction after 2 straight months under .230. He should continue to rebound in the 2nd half and remains a great buy low value.
Chris B. Young - He hit .196 last month, and he's hitting .091 this month. Get him out of your lineup until he starts to warm up. Nobody expected him to hit for AVG in his rookie season this year, but he's hitting rock bottom and needs to be benched until he shows progress.
Troy Tulowitski - He has to be owned now. He hit .303 in May, which was nice, but with 0 HR and 0 SB, he wasn't doing anything to really help fantasy owners. He followed that up with a .289 June, but more importantly he slugged 6 HR and stole 3 bases, finally coming through with a fantasy relevant month. Whether he can keep up the power/speed contribution is questionable, but find out with him in your starting lineup.
Chris Young - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. About as good as it gets from a start. He's been nothing short of unbelievable this year in San Diego.
Andruw Jones - He's slowly breaking out of his slump. 2 straight months of .200ish AVG, but he's hitting .259 this month, which is more in line with what you should expect from him. He's tossed in 3 HR and 8 RBI as well, so go get him while his value is at rock bottom.
Ben Sheets - 6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Yes, this was very disappointing versus the Pirates offense, but the Pirates had the Brewers number this series. He's allowed 4 and 5 ER in his last 2 games, but there's nothing to worry about here. With 14 hits, 2 walks, and 17 Ks in 14 IP over those two starts, he's hardly getting hit hard.
Justin Verlander - 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. You'd figure coming off a big rookie season with a lot of hype that Verlander would be overrated in drafts this year, but he's actually been outperforming his draft position so far. He limited a great Indians offense, and he's going to be among the elite pitchers chosen next year.
C.C. Sabathia - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. The pitching matchup with Verlander didn't materialze, but taking a beating at the hands of the Tigers offense is nothing to worry about.
Matt Morris - 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Things are starting to even out for Morris who raised his 3.55 ERA with this performance. Hopefully you traded him when I suggested back when things are going good (too good) for him. He might settled in as a 3.80 pitcher, but with the lack off offensive support he'll receive, the shaky bullpen, subpar Ks, and the 1.39 WHIP, I just don't see him doing much for your fantasy team.
Bronson Arroyo - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. That's 3 straight quality starts for Arroyo, and he should be owned in all leagues now. He appears to be healthy again, or over whatever was causing his struggles in that bad stretch. He probably won't resume pitching like he did last year, but he should be a solid fantasy pitcher for the back end of your rotation.
John Maine - 7 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, W (10). He's pitching as well as anyone in fantasy baseball this year, and he's proving to be an elite fantasy starter. I told you to sell high due to his command issues he was showing earlier in the year, but he's limiting the walks now, and his peripherals are supporting his great numbers now. Hopefully you got someone good in return. The fact I got Zambrano makes it not look so bad.
Kelvim Escobar - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Back to the same, dominant Escobar that we love. He's had problems in the past with coupling blowup starts together, but he's bouncing back from those better this year, which has helped him turn into a great fantasy starter.
Chad Gaudin - 7 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, W (8). Gaudin's been awesome this year, posting a 2.88 ERA, but these walks are becoming a real concern. Unlike with Maine earlier in the year, he's not K'ing enough hitters to be able to keep pitching around all those baserunners he's allowing. He's posting a 68:48 K:BB ratio and a 1.37 WHIP, so I suspect some bad times lie ahead for Gaudin. Sell if you can.
Brad Penny - 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. I know I've been promoting selling him high for a good while now, but I'm not going to jump all over one start. First of all, all pitchers are going to have starts like this from time to time. Secondly, and something that's actually a concern, Penny developed a blister/skin tear on the index finger of his pitching hand. Hopefully that will keep him out of the All Star game so he can rest up and hopefully put together a great 2nd half. Like I mentioned before, in last year's All Star game, he was putting everything into his fastballs, and that might have caused an arm problem that lead to his 2nd half collapse last year. Him not pitching in the game would be good news for his owners in case he dose something like that again.
Kelly Johnson - It seems as though he's platooning at 2B with Escobar now, starting against RHP. I don't know what to think about this. Odds are they'll face about 4 righties a week, meaning Johnson will play that many games. He's hitting .305 against RHP, which means you'll get quality production out of him. It depends on your situation...if you're scraping the WW for a 2B, you could do a lot worse than a platooning Johnson. If you already have a solid 2B that you're fairly happy with, I'd stay with him instead.
Jason Bay - I'd suggest benching him. He hit .172 last month, and he's hitting .045 this month. You can't keep running him out there because of the big name. However, as soon as he puts together a multi-hit game, I'd get him back in there. He's a very streaky hitter, and once he gets hot, he gets really hot.
Jon Garland - 3 1/3 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. Garland just couldn't lead the Chicago Bears to a victory over the Minnesota Vikings in this one, losing 20-14. I've been telling you for a while that Garland's ERA just didn't match up to most of his peripherals, but unfortunately he decided to even things out in one ugly game. If you've been using him, there's no doubt you're going to be irate at this, but I wouldn't give up on him yet...just be careful who you start him against.
Matt Garza - 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. My spot-start suggestion of Garza earlier in the week panned out great in this one. Garza, like all rookie pitchers, will have his ups and downs, but his K potential is worth gambling on. Make sure he's owned, but be selective in who you start him against. Plus, it's not a certainty that he'll have a permanent rotation spot for the rest of the year.
Alex Rodriguez - 3/4, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (29). He was struggling with his hammy after straining it a bit on a semi-collision at first base, but I think he's fine now.
Andy Pettitte - 5 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. That's 3 starts out of 4 where he's allowed 6 ER or more, so you have to wonder if he's hurting after pitching so well to start the year. I'd bench him for his first start after the break to see what's going on here.
Andrew Miller - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K. Very impressive start against Boston. Again, make sure he's owned, and use rookie pitcher caution with him.
Ryan Braun - 2/5, 2 solo HR (10). He and Pence continue to be ridiculous.
Roy Halladay - 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Yes it came against a powerful Cleveland lineup, but that's 3 straight subpar outings in a row for Halladay. As long as he's not hurt, he'll get back on track soon enough. He's the type of pitcher that carries too much risk for a contending team to own. If you can deal him and get a more consistent ace in return from someone who thinks he'll return to form, do it. On the other side, if you're a team that's looking for a cheaper ace that can carry your staff and launch you up the standings, go after him and absorb the risk.
Wandy Rodriguez - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. I think we have to start paying attention to him now. That's an impressive performance against the Mets, and he's now sporting a 3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 90 K in 104 2/3 IP. Houston's going to prevent wins from being common, but he's starting to show peripherals that indicate he could help fantasy teams. Add him to your radar/staff depending on your situation.
James Shields - 7 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He ran into trouble in the 8th inning after getting the first two outs, so his outing looks a bit worse than it was, plus the worthless Tampa bullpen tacked on another run to his total after he left. He pitched well, but with numerous matchups against the AL East upcoming, I'd move him if you can. I can't see him consistently shutting down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays lineups once he has to face them more often.
Jeff Francis - 5 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. 2 ugly outings in 3 appearances for Francis, but he had to face the red-hot Cubs, and then a tough Philly offense in Colorado. I'd exercise caution and evaluate the matchups for Francis as I don't believe he's an automatic start.
Justin Germano - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. I've been warning you that the 2nd time he faces a team, things could get ugly. Atlanta is now the 2nd team to face him a 2nd time and blow him up. Back to the waiver wire he goes if you haven't been able to package him in a deal yet. He's faced too many teams by this point to worry about playing that matchup game anymore.
Adrian Beltre - He's on fire, hitting 10/15 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 3 R in the last 4 games. Make sure he's unowned in your league. He's a decent lower end 3B in fantasy leagues with 13 HR and 6 SB. He has the talent to have a big 2nd half, but who knows if he'll be motivated to do such.
Casey Blake - He's back on fire again, getting 9 hits in his last 4 games, including 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 8 R. He's continuing to be a quality fantasy 3B in a sea of mediocre fantasy 3B this season.
John Lackey - 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K. Against the Yankees no less. He's back on top of his game after some struggles with the best start of his season. Unfortunately Roger Clemens matched him, so he didn't pick up a win for his effort.
Roger Clemens - 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Another 8 inning start from Clemens, this time against a very good Angels offense. I've been benching him, so while watching these outings on my bench is a bit disappointing, he's re-proved himself as a fantasy starter and should be active now.
Mark Buehrle - 8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, W (6). Vintage start from Buehrle, who's probably on his way out of town now. His contract talks with the team have broken down. He's being very reasonable in his demands, but the White Sox are holding strong and not giving into the no-trade clause that Buehrle wants. Given his durability and willingness to take less than market value, it makes the Sox look bad for not re-signing him, but I think his pitching style, especially as he ages and loses a bit of velocity, is far better suited for the NL. I don't think he'd be able to handle the powerful AL offenses 3 years from now, making the 5 year deal look bad in the future. It's hard to take as a White Sox fan, but I honestly don't think the White Sox are out of line here when you get past the sentimentality. I can only hope they'll get good value from him, and with as well as he's pitching and all the interest, I imagine they'll do well. Their farm system isn't doing so great right now, and this will be a chance to fill it out some.
Paul Konerko - .290, 7 HR last month and now he's at .400 with 3 HR this month. His buy-low window is closed.
Jeff Francouer - He's hitting .310 with 2 HR this month, so he's back hitting well again.
A very nice sign for his owners as he was struggling in the slugging dept the last 2 months.
Khalil Greene - He hit .292 with 6 HR and 17 RBI last month, and he's back at it with a .316 AVG and 2 HR this month. With all the K's and the pitcher's ballpark he plays in, I don't think his AVG over the past month plus is sustainable, but you might as well ride out the hot streak if you're struggling at the SS position, namely if you're a Tejada owner.
Felix Hernandez - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. That's 3 great starts in his last 4 outings, so perhaps Felix is ready to go back to being useable again. They did come against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Oakland, so he hasn't been shutting down great offenses. I would start using him again, but be careful which offenses he's facing until he shuts down a good one.
Rich Harden - 2 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. A terrible return to the rotation for Harden. I watched some of the highlights, and he wasn't hitting his usual velocity. Don't even think about starting him until he puts in a solid outing.
Prince Fielder - 2/4, 2 solo HR (29). So much for that 9 game homerless drought.
David Ortiz - 2/2, 2 run HR (14). With 2 doubles and a HR in the past two games, hopefully Ortiz is ending his power drought. He's been very quiet for too long, and in a related note, hopefully that will get Manny going as well. Neither are hitting worth a damn right now.
Carlos Delgado - Another slumping hitter showing signs of life. He has 15 hits in his last 10 games, and has 3 HR and 5 2B mixed in. He has his AVG back up to .241, but the recent hot streak probably closed his 2nd buy low window of the season.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. He's back struggling again with 10 walks in his last 3 outings, and 9 ER allowed in in his past 2 outings. He'll get it turned around again soon.
Homer Bailey - 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. A much better outing from Bailey, although a pinch-hitter ended his night early after only 87 pitches. Hopefully he'll build on this, but exercise caution on the matchup when he next pitches, if you need to start him.
Gil Meche - 6 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. After looking at the numbers more, I'm starting to sour on Meche. He's only posted 5 quality starts in his last 10 outings, and his WHIP has hovered around an un-impressive 1.30 pretty much all year. He's a nice innings eater, but he's not helping fantasy teams right now.
Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (4). Not at his best last night, but he pitched well enough for the win and is continuing to move in the right direction after being lit up in 3 straight starts.
Manny Corpas - 1 IP, 3 K, SB (1). He's the new Colorado closer with Fuentes hurting, so go get him. He should be solid, somewhat similar to Matt Capps judging from his numbers. He has a solid 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but only 33 K in 43 IP.
Erik Bedard - 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K. Dead arm? What dead arm? I think he revived it.
Hanley Ramirez - 4/4, 2 R, 2 SB (27). He hit 2 HRs the day before, so obviously someone besides me is annoyed that Freddy Sanchez is on the All Star team.
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