Oliver Perez - 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. Perez gave up 5 runs, but all were unearned. He cruised through 5 innings, but then his own throwing error lead to a run with one out. 2 popouts followed, and then a grounder hit David Wright in the knee for an infield single, and a 3 run HR followed before a walk and a K ended the inning. Unfortunately Perez's night was done at that point, although the damage was mostly all his fault other than the lucky infield single. Still, the 9:1 K:BB ratio was nice to see, even if it was against the impatient Pirates.
Dave Bush - 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. A tough outing for Bush, although many tough outings are encountered in Cincy against the Reds. This isn't anything to worry about for those of you using him.
Francisco Cordero - 1 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, BS (4). He blew the save in the 9th, then gave away the game in the 10th. I'm not sure why he was left in after the blown save, but these are the first 2 ER he's given up this month, so he had bounced back nicely after a horrible June.
Ryan Braun - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (17), SB (9). With Hunter Pence out with a broken bone in his wrist, the NL ROY is pretty much wrapped up for Braun. He continues to defy logic pertaining to rookies as he's up to .352 on the year. This is one of the best offensive rookie seasons we've seen to date.
Ken Griffey Jr. - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (25). He's only hitting .234 this month, but he does have 4 HR and 17 RBI to make up for it. He's another guy prone to going on big hot streaks, so this might be the start of another one. If you're a team that can't afford an injury to your OF, try to trade him for someone producing similarly so you don't run into the likelihood of him getting hurt again, which is rather high given his history in Cincy.
Carl Crawford - 2/5, 1 RBI, SB (32). He was also caught stealing in the contest, making him 32/40 for the season. The 80% conversion rate is very good, and the .290 AVG isn't too bad either. He's right on pace with last year's 89 R pace, which is a bit disappointing, but Tampa just doesn't have much thunder in their lineup.
B.J. Upton - 2/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. His 13 SB are quite disappointing so far from someone expected to reach 40 SBs this season if given ample playing time, but all his other stats are definitely beyond expectations. He left the game early and some feared the he had re-injured his quad, but it was simple cramps and he'll be back today.
Brian Roberts - 1/2, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (7), SB (30). He's not producing the same power numbers as 2005, but he's having another great year for a fantasy 2B and is playing like a top shelf option at the position, just as he was drafted to be.
Justin Verlander - 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. This type of outing wouldn't normally lead to 3 ER, but he bunched a couple baserunners and hits together in the same inning, scoring all 3 ER. The weak Tigers bullpen gave away the game at the end, even though there was no save opportunity. Expect the Tigers to acquire some relief help, which should slightly help Verlander's value by increasing his chances for wins.
Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (6). His only mistake was a 2 run HR. He's been one of the best fantasy pitchers in baseball this month, posting a 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 38 K in 33 1/3 IP while winning 4 of his 5 starts. Redraft playoff teams should move him with the assumption that he'll be shut down early come fantasy playoff time.
Jeff Francoeur - 1/4, 2 run HR (11). Ask and ye shall receive. This is exactly the Francoeur I wanted when I posted about him yesterday!
Kason Gabbard - 4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. He shouldn't have been started against the Indians anyways, and with Lester remaining in the rotation and Schilling due back soon, there's no reason to hang onto him now.
Manny Ramirez - 3/4, 4 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (17). He continues his scorching hot streak since the AS break, raising his numbers since then to .415, 6 HR, 19 RBI, and 16 R in 15 games. It's going to take a nice August and September, but will anyone honestly be surprised if he reaches 30 HR and 100 RBI again?
Ryan Garko - 1/4, 3 run HR (13). Another hot hitter post AS break as he's hitting .463 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 10 R in 13 games.
Wandy Rodriguez - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (7). I really wanted to spot-start him yesterday in this game, but he didn't clear waivers in time. This was a perfect matchup for him against a K-prone SD lineup. He remains a fringe mixed league option.
Carlos Lee - 1/3, 2 run HR (21). He's on a nice little power surge, homering 5 times in 10 games. He's back on pace for another 30 HR season, and his 83 RBI are good for 2nd in the NL.
Jorge De La Rosa - 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. This was an interesting start facing A-Rod since De La Rosa had served up his 400th career HR earlier, so had A-Rod homered last night, he would have surrendered his 500th career HR as well. Instead he intentionally walked him and hit him. Jerk.
Derrek Lee - 1/3, solo HR (9). His first road HR of the year, amazingly enough. Again, there's really no reason why his HRs are down this year, so like Matsui before him, hopefully he's ready to start sending some balls out of the park. I think expecting 8-10 HR over the rest of the year is reasonable.
Albert Pujols - 2/4, 2 R, 5 RBI, HR (23). He had been hitless in the series against the Cubs prior to becoming an RBI machine last night. I think he made up for it.
Chris Duncan - 1/2, GS (20). If only he could face RHP all season long.
Brad Penny - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, W (13). Not his best performance, but good enough to become the NL's 2nd 13 game winner last night. His blister is behind him, and his post-AS break ERA of 3.26 is more befitting of his 1.19 WHIP, plus he's won all 3 games. Perhaps he'll finally shake that post-AS problem he's had?
Takashi Saito - 1 IP, 1 BB, 1 K, SV (26). Saito returned last night from a cranky shoulder and notched the save. It appears he's good to go, although further problems can't be ruled out for the 37 year old. As a reminder, go handcuff him with Broxton before your league's trading deadline to be safe.
Eric Byrnes - 1/4, 3 run HR (15), SB (27). Another fine 5 catagory statline for Byrnes last night, who delivered a walkoff HR against batting practice pitcher Armando Benitez.
Dan Haren - 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (12). His best start in over a month, although he's hardly been getting lit up. He's been the most consistent fantasy pitcher in baseball this year in terms of quality starts in his breakthrough year.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Chase Utley To The DL
The Philadelphia Philles will place 2B Chase Utley on the DL with a broken hand.
Ugh. My condolences to you Utley owners. This is horrible news. He was hit by a pitch today, and they discovered the break on an X-Ray after the game.
Fantasy Impact: He's gone 4-6 weeks, and given he was probably your 1st round pick, there's just no replacing that. Ryan Theriot is 2B eligible, and he's hitting .280 with 17 SB and 49 R. He's been hitting 2nd pretty consistently in Chicago, so his fantasy value is fairly solid. Hot hitting Mike Fontenot, also of the Cubs, is another option. He's hitting .331 with 3 HR and 5 SB, but I'm afraid that he's playing over his head and will crash shortly. Dustin Pedroia's not a bad AVG-only contributor as he won't hurt you. Jose Vidro has also been hot and is an alright run producer. Nothing enticing, but it's a middle infielder and pickings are slim.
Ugh. My condolences to you Utley owners. This is horrible news. He was hit by a pitch today, and they discovered the break on an X-Ray after the game.
Fantasy Impact: He's gone 4-6 weeks, and given he was probably your 1st round pick, there's just no replacing that. Ryan Theriot is 2B eligible, and he's hitting .280 with 17 SB and 49 R. He's been hitting 2nd pretty consistently in Chicago, so his fantasy value is fairly solid. Hot hitting Mike Fontenot, also of the Cubs, is another option. He's hitting .331 with 3 HR and 5 SB, but I'm afraid that he's playing over his head and will crash shortly. Dustin Pedroia's not a bad AVG-only contributor as he won't hurt you. Jose Vidro has also been hot and is an alright run producer. Nothing enticing, but it's a middle infielder and pickings are slim.
Chris Ray To The DL
The Baltimore Orioles placed closer Chris Ray on the DL with a sore elbow.
Dammit, I had just traded for him, too.
Fantasy Impact: Ray has a bone spur in his elbow. The current plan is that he'll rest and come back in September. If rest doesn't cure the issue, he'll undergo surgery to remove the spur, and that will obviously force him to miss the rest of the season. Pitchers have been able to pitch through an injury like this in the past, but it depends on the nature of the spur. Hopefully Ray is one of those pitchers.
It'll likely be a closer by committee, but I would assume that it'll shake out like Atlanta's situation earlier in the year. Dannys Baez will be the favorite against a RH 9th inning, and if 2 or 3 LHs are due up, Jamie Walker will get the call. If that's the case, Baez will have more value, just like Rafael Soriano did with Atlanta.
Dammit, I had just traded for him, too.
Fantasy Impact: Ray has a bone spur in his elbow. The current plan is that he'll rest and come back in September. If rest doesn't cure the issue, he'll undergo surgery to remove the spur, and that will obviously force him to miss the rest of the season. Pitchers have been able to pitch through an injury like this in the past, but it depends on the nature of the spur. Hopefully Ray is one of those pitchers.
It'll likely be a closer by committee, but I would assume that it'll shake out like Atlanta's situation earlier in the year. Dannys Baez will be the favorite against a RH 9th inning, and if 2 or 3 LHs are due up, Jamie Walker will get the call. If that's the case, Baez will have more value, just like Rafael Soriano did with Atlanta.
Wednesday Wrapup - Gorzelanny, Lowe Leave Hurt
Alex Rios - 2/5, 1 R, 1 RBI. Who knows that lineup Blue Jays manager John Gibbons will throw out there each day, but Alex Rios batted 3rd last night, and if for some reason he stayed there, it'd give his fantasy value a slight boost being in a better RBI spot. He's the best hitter on that team, so there's little reason not to use him there.
Aaron Cook - 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. All the damage was done before the 2nd run was driven in during a GIDP. Not fantasy noteworthy (unless you're a mind-reader and spot-starter him), but he finished this game in only 74 pitches, which some state is a record since pitch counts started being tallied. I haven't see that confirmed anywhere, but it's incredible efficiency combined with a complete lack of patience. Cool.
Matt Holliday - 4/4, 4 R, 3 RBI, HR (18). Big game from a big player. Gotta love owning Holliday.
Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. That's 4 straight 4+ ER, 10+ H performance from Blanton. Unfortunately things are still evening out for Blanton who now sports a 3.69 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. This is more in line with his talent level, so expect the shellings to stop soon.
John Lackey - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. His numbers are also evening out as well. I'm learning things as I go here, and there were a few more sell high guys that I should have mentioned, with both Blanton and Lackey qualifying. Both are good mixed league pitchers, don't get me wrong, but both were pitching above their heads and just couldn't keep up the pace they were on. So noted for next year.
Francisco Rodriguez - 1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, BS (3), W (4). Just a brutal performance from K-Rod, but he got lucky and the Angels came back to win it in the bottom of the 9th. No closer is immune to these outings over the year.
Chone Figgins - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB (26). Another big game from Chone who has boosted his AVG all the way up to .325 with this game. He has definitely come back from a down year last year, and also a brutal start after an injury this year to re-establish himself as a top fantasy middle infielder.
Mike Piazza - 3/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (3). He's really hitting the ball well since returning from his extended minor league rehab assignment.
Erik Bedard - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, W (10). The strikeout machine continues his mastery of the AL, lowering his ERA to 3.05 for the season. As the law of averages has it, don't be surprise by a shelling sometime soon, but he and Zambrano are probably the 2 hottest fantasy starters going right now.
Corey Patterson - 3/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (5). Patterson is hitting .429 with 3 HR and 5 SB in 12 G since the AS break, and he's continuing to hit 2nd. There's no reason he should be unowned in fantasy leagues right now.
Josh Beckett - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Who knew the Red Sox/Indians series would feature two consecutive 1-0 pitching duels? Beckett was the unlucky one here, getting outdueled by Carmona and not picking up a win in a start that he would win 95% of the time.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (13). Perhaps his finest start of the year for this impressive youngster. Maybe he won't fade away like I previously thought.
Cole Hamels - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Great outing from Hamels, but the makeshift Phillies bullpen let him down in the 9th inning. They badly need Gordon and Myers back healthy as they had to have known that Alfonseca wouldn't last.
Ryan Howard - 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (28). A-Rod and Fielder better watch out. Despite the DL stint, and thanks to 6 HR in 8 games, Howard is right on their heels.
Tom Gorzelanny - 2 1/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. Told ya. He left with left shoulder stiffness and his status is uncertain at the moment. Hope you sold high on him, he has a history of these sorts of injuries. Hopefully he'll come back healthy though.
Tom Glavine - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (9). Not his best work, but he did enough to pick up the win. He'll continue being a non-impressive, but fairly solid fantasy starter for the rest of the season thanks to the league he pitches in and the team he plays for.
Jason Bay - 1/3, 2 run HR. 3 HR in 2 days has Bay owners seeing a bit of light ahead. He's way past due for a hot streak.
Brandon Phillips - 2/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. He had his AVG in the .270s a lot, but it's up to .284 right now thanks to a scorching .337 July. If he can maintain it in the .280s for the rest of the year, he'll stop being a minor liability in AVG and a true 5 catagory player.
Derrek Lowe - 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Lowe left his start early with a strained groin, and he has an upcoming MRI, which will reveal the extent of the injury. Stay tuned.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (5). He's 5/5 since coming off the DL, pitching 7 IP with 3 H, 3 BB, and 13 K. He's quietly becoming the old Brad Lidge again. I can't guarantee him keeping this up the rest of the year, but if he stays with Houston the rest of the year, he should remain a very valuable closer. His 1.94 ERA isn't going to allow you to buy low.
Mike Mussina - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (5). He pitched around some baserunners to maintain a slim 2-1 lead til the Yankees opened it up in the 8th inning, lead by A-Rod's 35th HR. Considering it was against the Royals, this was expected of him.
Gil Meche - 7 1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Meche was actually pitching a very good ballgame until A-Rod got to him in the 8th. I still question his mixed league fantasy value, but you could find worse I guess.
Hideki Matsui - 1/5, HR (18). His 10th HR this month. This is as much power as he's shown in his entire career in the US.
Ted Lilly - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (11). Not his best effort, but against the current Cardinals lineup, you don't need your best, especially when you're a lefty and can neutralize their 2nd best hitter (Chris Duncan) simply by taking the mound as a LHP. His fantasy owners will happily take it as Lilly has won 6 starts, and 7 of his last 8.
Adam Wainwright - 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. His K:BB ratio was great, but he left too many pitches over the plate and got hit around. He was having quite a nice month prior to this outing, so stick with him and hope that this is a bump in the road as he starts to realize his potential.
Mike Fontenot - 2/5, 2 RBI. He's up to .331 on the year with 3 HR, 20 RBI, 24 R, and 5 SB in 39 games. His minor league track record says he's playing over his head, but if he's unowned and you're having trouble at 2B, you might as well use him while he's hot.
Kenny Rogers - 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K. He surrendered 4 HR in a very ugly outing, but it's his 3rd straight ugly outing after coming back from the DL very strong. He's now been lit up in 3 straight starts, including the struggling offenses of the Royals and White Sox. This is cause for concern, but if he's healthy, he'll bounce back and be the AL version of Tom Glavine.
Josh Fields - 2/4, 2 run HR (8). That's 3 HR in 4 games for Fields. He's hitting .286 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, and 14 R in 23 games this month, which is pretty solid for a 3B. He might be worth stashing now, depending on your 3B situation and bench, to see if he's figured things out already.
J.J. Putz - 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K, BS (1). He's human, so you don't have to contact your local authorities.
Adrian Beltre - 3/5, 1 R, 4 RBI. He had been quiet recently, but he's still at .325 with 5 HR and 22 RBI this month. He, like several others, have been alternating bad month/good month, and because of that, his overall AVG stands at .274. He's a lower tiered fantasy 3B as it stands right now until he can show some more consistency.
Kenny Lofton - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (7). With a .303 AVG, 62 R, and 21 SB, he's been a fine fantasy OF for speed purposes, plus the 7 HR isn't too bad. He's been worthless against LHP, though, posting a .221 AVG with 0 HR and 0 SB. Use him accordingly.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, W (9). He walked the bases loaded in the 1st inning, then cruised from there on out. It was a very encouraging outing after the 1st inning, showing the vintage Webb from 2006. Hopefully he can build on this and go on a nice run of starts. His 1.29 WHIP leaves a lot to be desired, but he's battled and kept his ERA at a very nice 3.23.
Chris Young - He's hitting .260 post AS break with 3 HR and 6 SB, so that's been a nice uptick in his steals. He's only hitting .237 overall, but with 16 HR and 15 SB, he's provided decent fantasy value. If he can keep his AVG around .260, he's worth playing depending on your options. Let's hope he continues hitting for a more reasonable AVG in the 2nd half.
Chuck James - 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Another solid outing from James, but he was a victim of poor run support and lost. That's 5 straight starts of 2 ER or less for James, but he's only won 2 of those outings.
Brad Hennessey - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, SV (7). He's quietly settled in nicely as the Giants closer, going 7/9 in save opps over the year. The Giants just don't generate many save chances, though.
Aaron Cook - 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. All the damage was done before the 2nd run was driven in during a GIDP. Not fantasy noteworthy (unless you're a mind-reader and spot-starter him), but he finished this game in only 74 pitches, which some state is a record since pitch counts started being tallied. I haven't see that confirmed anywhere, but it's incredible efficiency combined with a complete lack of patience. Cool.
Matt Holliday - 4/4, 4 R, 3 RBI, HR (18). Big game from a big player. Gotta love owning Holliday.
Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. That's 4 straight 4+ ER, 10+ H performance from Blanton. Unfortunately things are still evening out for Blanton who now sports a 3.69 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. This is more in line with his talent level, so expect the shellings to stop soon.
John Lackey - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. His numbers are also evening out as well. I'm learning things as I go here, and there were a few more sell high guys that I should have mentioned, with both Blanton and Lackey qualifying. Both are good mixed league pitchers, don't get me wrong, but both were pitching above their heads and just couldn't keep up the pace they were on. So noted for next year.
Francisco Rodriguez - 1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, BS (3), W (4). Just a brutal performance from K-Rod, but he got lucky and the Angels came back to win it in the bottom of the 9th. No closer is immune to these outings over the year.
Chone Figgins - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB (26). Another big game from Chone who has boosted his AVG all the way up to .325 with this game. He has definitely come back from a down year last year, and also a brutal start after an injury this year to re-establish himself as a top fantasy middle infielder.
Mike Piazza - 3/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (3). He's really hitting the ball well since returning from his extended minor league rehab assignment.
Erik Bedard - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, W (10). The strikeout machine continues his mastery of the AL, lowering his ERA to 3.05 for the season. As the law of averages has it, don't be surprise by a shelling sometime soon, but he and Zambrano are probably the 2 hottest fantasy starters going right now.
Corey Patterson - 3/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (5). Patterson is hitting .429 with 3 HR and 5 SB in 12 G since the AS break, and he's continuing to hit 2nd. There's no reason he should be unowned in fantasy leagues right now.
Josh Beckett - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Who knew the Red Sox/Indians series would feature two consecutive 1-0 pitching duels? Beckett was the unlucky one here, getting outdueled by Carmona and not picking up a win in a start that he would win 95% of the time.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (13). Perhaps his finest start of the year for this impressive youngster. Maybe he won't fade away like I previously thought.
Cole Hamels - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Great outing from Hamels, but the makeshift Phillies bullpen let him down in the 9th inning. They badly need Gordon and Myers back healthy as they had to have known that Alfonseca wouldn't last.
Ryan Howard - 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (28). A-Rod and Fielder better watch out. Despite the DL stint, and thanks to 6 HR in 8 games, Howard is right on their heels.
Tom Gorzelanny - 2 1/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. Told ya. He left with left shoulder stiffness and his status is uncertain at the moment. Hope you sold high on him, he has a history of these sorts of injuries. Hopefully he'll come back healthy though.
Tom Glavine - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (9). Not his best work, but he did enough to pick up the win. He'll continue being a non-impressive, but fairly solid fantasy starter for the rest of the season thanks to the league he pitches in and the team he plays for.
Jason Bay - 1/3, 2 run HR. 3 HR in 2 days has Bay owners seeing a bit of light ahead. He's way past due for a hot streak.
Brandon Phillips - 2/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. He had his AVG in the .270s a lot, but it's up to .284 right now thanks to a scorching .337 July. If he can maintain it in the .280s for the rest of the year, he'll stop being a minor liability in AVG and a true 5 catagory player.
Derrek Lowe - 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Lowe left his start early with a strained groin, and he has an upcoming MRI, which will reveal the extent of the injury. Stay tuned.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (5). He's 5/5 since coming off the DL, pitching 7 IP with 3 H, 3 BB, and 13 K. He's quietly becoming the old Brad Lidge again. I can't guarantee him keeping this up the rest of the year, but if he stays with Houston the rest of the year, he should remain a very valuable closer. His 1.94 ERA isn't going to allow you to buy low.
Mike Mussina - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (5). He pitched around some baserunners to maintain a slim 2-1 lead til the Yankees opened it up in the 8th inning, lead by A-Rod's 35th HR. Considering it was against the Royals, this was expected of him.
Gil Meche - 7 1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Meche was actually pitching a very good ballgame until A-Rod got to him in the 8th. I still question his mixed league fantasy value, but you could find worse I guess.
Hideki Matsui - 1/5, HR (18). His 10th HR this month. This is as much power as he's shown in his entire career in the US.
Ted Lilly - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (11). Not his best effort, but against the current Cardinals lineup, you don't need your best, especially when you're a lefty and can neutralize their 2nd best hitter (Chris Duncan) simply by taking the mound as a LHP. His fantasy owners will happily take it as Lilly has won 6 starts, and 7 of his last 8.
Adam Wainwright - 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. His K:BB ratio was great, but he left too many pitches over the plate and got hit around. He was having quite a nice month prior to this outing, so stick with him and hope that this is a bump in the road as he starts to realize his potential.
Mike Fontenot - 2/5, 2 RBI. He's up to .331 on the year with 3 HR, 20 RBI, 24 R, and 5 SB in 39 games. His minor league track record says he's playing over his head, but if he's unowned and you're having trouble at 2B, you might as well use him while he's hot.
Kenny Rogers - 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K. He surrendered 4 HR in a very ugly outing, but it's his 3rd straight ugly outing after coming back from the DL very strong. He's now been lit up in 3 straight starts, including the struggling offenses of the Royals and White Sox. This is cause for concern, but if he's healthy, he'll bounce back and be the AL version of Tom Glavine.
Josh Fields - 2/4, 2 run HR (8). That's 3 HR in 4 games for Fields. He's hitting .286 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, and 14 R in 23 games this month, which is pretty solid for a 3B. He might be worth stashing now, depending on your 3B situation and bench, to see if he's figured things out already.
J.J. Putz - 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K, BS (1). He's human, so you don't have to contact your local authorities.
Adrian Beltre - 3/5, 1 R, 4 RBI. He had been quiet recently, but he's still at .325 with 5 HR and 22 RBI this month. He, like several others, have been alternating bad month/good month, and because of that, his overall AVG stands at .274. He's a lower tiered fantasy 3B as it stands right now until he can show some more consistency.
Kenny Lofton - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (7). With a .303 AVG, 62 R, and 21 SB, he's been a fine fantasy OF for speed purposes, plus the 7 HR isn't too bad. He's been worthless against LHP, though, posting a .221 AVG with 0 HR and 0 SB. Use him accordingly.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, W (9). He walked the bases loaded in the 1st inning, then cruised from there on out. It was a very encouraging outing after the 1st inning, showing the vintage Webb from 2006. Hopefully he can build on this and go on a nice run of starts. His 1.29 WHIP leaves a lot to be desired, but he's battled and kept his ERA at a very nice 3.23.
Chris Young - He's hitting .260 post AS break with 3 HR and 6 SB, so that's been a nice uptick in his steals. He's only hitting .237 overall, but with 16 HR and 15 SB, he's provided decent fantasy value. If he can keep his AVG around .260, he's worth playing depending on your options. Let's hope he continues hitting for a more reasonable AVG in the 2nd half.
Chuck James - 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Another solid outing from James, but he was a victim of poor run support and lost. That's 5 straight starts of 2 ER or less for James, but he's only won 2 of those outings.
Brad Hennessey - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, SV (7). He's quietly settled in nicely as the Giants closer, going 7/9 in save opps over the year. The Giants just don't generate many save chances, though.
Belated Tuesday: Francouer's Power Outage
Jeremy Bonderman - 7 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Owners expecting that breakout year everyone seems to think Bonderman is due for keep getting disappointed. His 10-2 record is stellar, but that's more attributed to the great Detroit offense than his pitching. His ERA is up to 3.69 on the season after this outing. Only a very strong finish can starve off another season of disappointment for those expecting bigger things.
Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Right back on it. Vazquez is enjoying his finest AL season to date, and this is especially impressive coming against the Tigers. He has posted a sparkling 1.09 WHIP so far this year.
Bobby Jenks - 2 IP, 2 SV (28). Jenks has calmed back down with 3 straight scoreless appearances, including two on Tuesday to pick up the save in both games. Hopefully he'll go on a nice streak to even out the ERA damage he's done recently.
Jim Thome - 5/7, 4 R, 3 RBI, HR (17). Thome had a big doubleheader and he continues his most productive month of the season. As the fantasy trading deadline appears, I think Thome is a great sell high candidate given his injury history.
Scott Kazmir - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. He had made such good progress from his last start up until the 7th inning, where he allowed a single and then 3 consecutive walks with 2 outs, chasing him from the game. Another walk from the bullpen tacked on the 3rd run before the inning ended. He's still walked 8 guys over his past 3 outings, but there are some serious signs of improvements in there. He's not a bad buy low guy right now, assuming this progress will continue. He's risky, but if you're looking for a guy to start helping you make a move up the pitching standings, he's a great target.
Daniel Cabrera - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, W (7). Just imagine what he could do if he threw strikes. He's still nowhere close to mixed league value, though. He's sporting a solid .249 BAA, but thanks to the ridiculous number of 73 walks, it's not getting him anywhere.
Jamie Walker - 1 IP, 1 H, SV (2). From the looks of it, with Ray going on the DL, it's going to be closer by committee. Walker got the nod last night thanks to the lefties due up in the inning, but it sounds like Baez will get the other assignments. I'd bet on Baez if you're going to chase this situation.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (12). He scattered his baserunners and threw 7 shutout innings, much to the delight of his recently disappointed owners. This is impressive against Cleveland, so hopefully he's ready to get on a roll again.
C.C. Sabathia - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Much like Matsuzaka, Sabathia had been struggling previously, and this outing against a powerful Red Sox lineup shows that's he ready to start pitching like we expect again.
Aaron Rowand - 3/4, 3 R, 1 RBI, HR (14). Rowand is making himself a lot of money with this offensive performance combined with his stellar defense, and he's making many fantasy owners very happy with a great waiver wire pickup earlier in the season.
Dustin McGowan - 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (7). He puts together some excellent outings, but he mixes them in with bad outings far too often to be a mixed league option.
Scott Baker - 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Another pretty good outing from Baker despite the 4 ER allowed, giving up only 7 baserunners. The Toronto offense is pretty good, so Baker is continuing to look like a fringe mixed league pitcher.
Vernon Wells - 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (14). Wells hit 5th last night as the Blue Jays continue to bounce him all over the order. He hasn't really busted out yet, but I still think there's a good chance of that happening before the end of the year.
Yovani Gallardo - 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (3). Judging from the walks and strikeouts, this wasn't one of Gallardo's better performances, but he still only allowed 1 run against a pretty good Cincy offense in a great hitters ballpark. He's really been impressive so far, but I'm afraid that a bad start or run of bad starts is upon him given his stellar 2.18 ERA. I'd look to move him in a redraft league immediately if you don't want to take the risk of having a rookie pitcher.
Ian Snell - 4 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Snell's fallen apart his past 3 outings, shooting his ERA from 2.93 to 3.62. I really should have listed him in my AS Break sell high article, although I have been hinting that he might be one to trade. Since he blamed the Rockies for stealing signs in his last outing, I wonder what his deflective excuse is this time.
John Maine - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W (11). He had two bad outings in a row, but settled back down with this one. Nothing like a matchup with the Pirates to cure what ails you.
Jason Bay - 3/4, 2 R, 3 RBI. HE LIVES! Unfortunately this was on my bench, but I can't blame myself too much considering how bad he's been hitting for the last 2 months. Get him back in your lineup immediately. When he gets hot, he gets real hot.
Lastings Milledge - 3/3, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2). Milledge is hitting .302 with 2 HR and 11 RBI in 11 games since being recalled. With Alou constantly finding a new ailment to keep him on the DL, he deserves strong consideration in mixed leagues. His talent is for real.
Rafael Furcal - 0/4, SB (11). He's been a massive bust this year. His .280 AVG is alright, but he's scored only 53 runs in 91 games, and most importantly he's only stolen 11 bases. I mentioned earlier this year that Juan Pierre might not allow him to steal as much thanks to him being incredibly impatient, but I never knew it would get this bad. Furcal has stolen 46 and 37 bases the last two years, but is on pace for less than 20 this year. He's not worth starting with these numbers.
Chien Ming-Wang - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (11). Owners wanted more against the Royals, but he didn't pitch too badly and still picked up the win.
Derek Jeter - 4/6, 1 R. He's actually been disappoiting this year, believe it or not. His .337 AVG is awesome, but his 7 HR, 11 SB, and 66 R are below his usual pace. He's on pace for his lowest totals in those stats since 2003.
Carlos Zambrano - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (13). Vintage Zambrano as he became the NL's first 13 game winner, quite a feat considering how badly he was pitching up until the fight with Barrett. He's won 8 of his last 10 starts, and thanks to the great Cubs team around him this year, he should set a career high in wins this year.
Derrek Lee - 2/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. A nice return to the lineup after the suspension.
Aramis Ramirez - 4/5, 1 RBI. Don't you hate it when your player puts up 4 hits, only to not produce much in the other catagories? I know I sure do.
Chris Young - 2 IP, 1 K. Uh oh. He left his start early with the dreaded oblique strain. This injury flatout sucks as it's impossible to predict the recovery time. He could make his next start, and he could be out a month. We'll have to see what happens.
Mike Cameron - 1/3, 3 run HR (13). He's hitting a horrible .194 this month, so benching him isn't a bad idea in mixed leagues right now until he heats up again. Hopefully this is a start.
Sergio Mitre - 3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. One more start like this and I'd drop him. Like I said before, his ERA was due to even out at some point, so this shouldn't come as a surprise, other than the fact the usually light hitting Diamondbacks were the ones to do it.
Dan Uggla - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (21). Terrific power numbers for a 2B. That .258 AVG is sickly, but he's a big 3 catagory player that plays a weak offensive position. Florida really should move him down to 5th or so...you don't want your #2 hitter with a .332 OBP usually.
Kelvim Escobar - 7 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. Not his best outing, even though it was a quality start, and his offense didn't do enough to get him another win. He's still pitching very well right now.
Alan Embree - 1 1/3 IP, SV (11). He was a very nice waiver wire closer while it lasted, but Street is due back soon and he'll go back to a setup role. With as good as Santiago Casilla has been pitching, I'm not sure if he's still 2nd in line for saves. Oakland might want to see what they have in Casilla.
Tim Hudson - 8 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Had a shutout going until the 9th. Hudson walked two, got two outs, and then a soft single plated a run. Wickman came out and proceeded to give up back to back hits, scoring 3 more runs and giving Hudson 2 ER and a no decision to boot. I hate Bob Wickman as I had just traded for Hudson to get some more wins.
Jeff Francoeur - 2/6, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's been surprising this year. His .294 AVG is a very good surprise, but his 10 HR so far is a very bad surprise. After hitting a customary 5 HR in April, he's hit 5 HR in the past 3 months. All his rate stats look fine, but his HR/FB is a miserable 8.6%. I don't see any reason why he's not hitting more HRs. I think us fantasy owners would prefer the .265 / 30 HR Francoeur come back.
Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Right back on it. Vazquez is enjoying his finest AL season to date, and this is especially impressive coming against the Tigers. He has posted a sparkling 1.09 WHIP so far this year.
Bobby Jenks - 2 IP, 2 SV (28). Jenks has calmed back down with 3 straight scoreless appearances, including two on Tuesday to pick up the save in both games. Hopefully he'll go on a nice streak to even out the ERA damage he's done recently.
Jim Thome - 5/7, 4 R, 3 RBI, HR (17). Thome had a big doubleheader and he continues his most productive month of the season. As the fantasy trading deadline appears, I think Thome is a great sell high candidate given his injury history.
Scott Kazmir - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. He had made such good progress from his last start up until the 7th inning, where he allowed a single and then 3 consecutive walks with 2 outs, chasing him from the game. Another walk from the bullpen tacked on the 3rd run before the inning ended. He's still walked 8 guys over his past 3 outings, but there are some serious signs of improvements in there. He's not a bad buy low guy right now, assuming this progress will continue. He's risky, but if you're looking for a guy to start helping you make a move up the pitching standings, he's a great target.
Daniel Cabrera - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, W (7). Just imagine what he could do if he threw strikes. He's still nowhere close to mixed league value, though. He's sporting a solid .249 BAA, but thanks to the ridiculous number of 73 walks, it's not getting him anywhere.
Jamie Walker - 1 IP, 1 H, SV (2). From the looks of it, with Ray going on the DL, it's going to be closer by committee. Walker got the nod last night thanks to the lefties due up in the inning, but it sounds like Baez will get the other assignments. I'd bet on Baez if you're going to chase this situation.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (12). He scattered his baserunners and threw 7 shutout innings, much to the delight of his recently disappointed owners. This is impressive against Cleveland, so hopefully he's ready to get on a roll again.
C.C. Sabathia - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Much like Matsuzaka, Sabathia had been struggling previously, and this outing against a powerful Red Sox lineup shows that's he ready to start pitching like we expect again.
Aaron Rowand - 3/4, 3 R, 1 RBI, HR (14). Rowand is making himself a lot of money with this offensive performance combined with his stellar defense, and he's making many fantasy owners very happy with a great waiver wire pickup earlier in the season.
Dustin McGowan - 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (7). He puts together some excellent outings, but he mixes them in with bad outings far too often to be a mixed league option.
Scott Baker - 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Another pretty good outing from Baker despite the 4 ER allowed, giving up only 7 baserunners. The Toronto offense is pretty good, so Baker is continuing to look like a fringe mixed league pitcher.
Vernon Wells - 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (14). Wells hit 5th last night as the Blue Jays continue to bounce him all over the order. He hasn't really busted out yet, but I still think there's a good chance of that happening before the end of the year.
Yovani Gallardo - 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (3). Judging from the walks and strikeouts, this wasn't one of Gallardo's better performances, but he still only allowed 1 run against a pretty good Cincy offense in a great hitters ballpark. He's really been impressive so far, but I'm afraid that a bad start or run of bad starts is upon him given his stellar 2.18 ERA. I'd look to move him in a redraft league immediately if you don't want to take the risk of having a rookie pitcher.
Ian Snell - 4 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Snell's fallen apart his past 3 outings, shooting his ERA from 2.93 to 3.62. I really should have listed him in my AS Break sell high article, although I have been hinting that he might be one to trade. Since he blamed the Rockies for stealing signs in his last outing, I wonder what his deflective excuse is this time.
John Maine - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W (11). He had two bad outings in a row, but settled back down with this one. Nothing like a matchup with the Pirates to cure what ails you.
Jason Bay - 3/4, 2 R, 3 RBI. HE LIVES! Unfortunately this was on my bench, but I can't blame myself too much considering how bad he's been hitting for the last 2 months. Get him back in your lineup immediately. When he gets hot, he gets real hot.
Lastings Milledge - 3/3, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2). Milledge is hitting .302 with 2 HR and 11 RBI in 11 games since being recalled. With Alou constantly finding a new ailment to keep him on the DL, he deserves strong consideration in mixed leagues. His talent is for real.
Rafael Furcal - 0/4, SB (11). He's been a massive bust this year. His .280 AVG is alright, but he's scored only 53 runs in 91 games, and most importantly he's only stolen 11 bases. I mentioned earlier this year that Juan Pierre might not allow him to steal as much thanks to him being incredibly impatient, but I never knew it would get this bad. Furcal has stolen 46 and 37 bases the last two years, but is on pace for less than 20 this year. He's not worth starting with these numbers.
Chien Ming-Wang - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (11). Owners wanted more against the Royals, but he didn't pitch too badly and still picked up the win.
Derek Jeter - 4/6, 1 R. He's actually been disappoiting this year, believe it or not. His .337 AVG is awesome, but his 7 HR, 11 SB, and 66 R are below his usual pace. He's on pace for his lowest totals in those stats since 2003.
Carlos Zambrano - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (13). Vintage Zambrano as he became the NL's first 13 game winner, quite a feat considering how badly he was pitching up until the fight with Barrett. He's won 8 of his last 10 starts, and thanks to the great Cubs team around him this year, he should set a career high in wins this year.
Derrek Lee - 2/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. A nice return to the lineup after the suspension.
Aramis Ramirez - 4/5, 1 RBI. Don't you hate it when your player puts up 4 hits, only to not produce much in the other catagories? I know I sure do.
Chris Young - 2 IP, 1 K. Uh oh. He left his start early with the dreaded oblique strain. This injury flatout sucks as it's impossible to predict the recovery time. He could make his next start, and he could be out a month. We'll have to see what happens.
Mike Cameron - 1/3, 3 run HR (13). He's hitting a horrible .194 this month, so benching him isn't a bad idea in mixed leagues right now until he heats up again. Hopefully this is a start.
Sergio Mitre - 3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. One more start like this and I'd drop him. Like I said before, his ERA was due to even out at some point, so this shouldn't come as a surprise, other than the fact the usually light hitting Diamondbacks were the ones to do it.
Dan Uggla - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (21). Terrific power numbers for a 2B. That .258 AVG is sickly, but he's a big 3 catagory player that plays a weak offensive position. Florida really should move him down to 5th or so...you don't want your #2 hitter with a .332 OBP usually.
Kelvim Escobar - 7 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. Not his best outing, even though it was a quality start, and his offense didn't do enough to get him another win. He's still pitching very well right now.
Alan Embree - 1 1/3 IP, SV (11). He was a very nice waiver wire closer while it lasted, but Street is due back soon and he'll go back to a setup role. With as good as Santiago Casilla has been pitching, I'm not sure if he's still 2nd in line for saves. Oakland might want to see what they have in Casilla.
Tim Hudson - 8 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Had a shutout going until the 9th. Hudson walked two, got two outs, and then a soft single plated a run. Wickman came out and proceeded to give up back to back hits, scoring 3 more runs and giving Hudson 2 ER and a no decision to boot. I hate Bob Wickman as I had just traded for Hudson to get some more wins.
Jeff Francoeur - 2/6, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's been surprising this year. His .294 AVG is a very good surprise, but his 10 HR so far is a very bad surprise. After hitting a customary 5 HR in April, he's hit 5 HR in the past 3 months. All his rate stats look fine, but his HR/FB is a miserable 8.6%. I don't see any reason why he's not hitting more HRs. I think us fantasy owners would prefer the .265 / 30 HR Francoeur come back.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Warrick Dunn Has Back Surgery, To Miss 6 Weeks
Atlanta Falcons RB Warrick Dunn underwent surgery for a herniated disc. The Falcons expect him to miss 6 weeks.
Fantasy Impact: Our first injury story of the year for football that really matters. 6 weeks puts Dunn's return right at the start of the regular season. Dunn was also recovering from shoulder surgery and hadn't worked out in team drills yet, so he's going to be a bit behind missing both of those and likely all of the preseason. Factoring in his age and his questionable fit into the new Falcons offense under Bobby Petrino, and he's going to have an uphill climb to be anything more than a 3rd down back for the Falcons this season. Immediately upgrade Jerious Norwood as the new starting RB for the Atlanta Falcons. He'll probably have 2-3 weeks as the uncontested starter for the Falcons, and he'll have a chance to take that job for good.
Fantasy Impact: Our first injury story of the year for football that really matters. 6 weeks puts Dunn's return right at the start of the regular season. Dunn was also recovering from shoulder surgery and hadn't worked out in team drills yet, so he's going to be a bit behind missing both of those and likely all of the preseason. Factoring in his age and his questionable fit into the new Falcons offense under Bobby Petrino, and he's going to have an uphill climb to be anything more than a 3rd down back for the Falcons this season. Immediately upgrade Jerious Norwood as the new starting RB for the Atlanta Falcons. He'll probably have 2-3 weeks as the uncontested starter for the Falcons, and he'll have a chance to take that job for good.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Monday: Morneau and Thomas 2 HRs A Piece
Jon Lester - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, W (1). The AL's answer to the Josh Hamilton story. Lester returned to the majors last night after successfully battling cancer, winning his first start against a powerful Cleveland offense. I'm not sure what his mixed league fantasy value will be, but with Tavarez likely done as a starter, he now has a permanent rotation spot.
Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 1 R, 2 RBI. Keep it going Manny, we're loving this.
Johan Santana - 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He left numerous pitches up and over the plate, and all 6 runs scored on 4 HRs. Just a bad night with his command, so nothing to worry about.
Frank Thomas - 2/3, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (16). He hasn't shown the same power as last year with only 16 HR through almost 4 months, but he's been a lower tier UTIL option hitting over .290 the past two months. Unfortunately that's only translated to 28 RBI and 21 R.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (28). Morneau is up to .342 this month with 8 HR and 24 RBI, giving him a very good chance of taking home player of the month honors. Let's hope he doesn't continue his trend of subpar odd months in August.
Aaron Harang - 10 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K. Yes, 10 innings, and no, he didn't win. A very nice performance from Harang wasted by the inability to score runs. He had a fairly rough April and May, posting 2 months worth of an ERA over 4, but he's been under 3.00 the past two months to post a season ERA of 3.45. He's still been right on par with last year and he's met expectations so far this year.
Chad Billingsley - 9 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, W (7). When his control doesn't fail him, this is what he's capable of. He's the kind of pitcher who will be unpredictable with when his command and thus his performance will be solid, so don't frustrate yourself with when he'll be on/off and start him each time out. The numbers should balance out in your favor by season's end.
Jeff Kent - 4/4, 1 R, 2 RBI. He's now up to .417 this month. With only 13 HR through almost 4 months he's not the power threat he used to be, but his season AVG is back up to .292 and he's been a valuable fantasy 2B all year long.
James Loney - 1/4, 3 run HR (4). He's going to be a fantasy contributor sometime soon, but since he hits so low in the lineup and plays 1B, don't use him this season. He could be a young sleeper for next season, though.
Roger Clemens - 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (3). What you'd expect against the Royals. I wouldn't start him against great offenses like the Red Sox because he's not missing enough bats to be successful against them.
Alex Rodriguez - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. 100 RBI on the season for A-Rod in 98 games, the first Yankee in history to drive in 100 runs before the 100th game. Given the rich tradition of the Yankees franchise, that shows you what type of season that A-Rod is having.
Andrew Miller - 4 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 7 K. A typical wild night from a young pitcher. He's usually not this hittable, so this was an anomaly for this talented rookie.
Mark Buehrle - 6 1/3 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. His ERA was due to rise, so fortunately it came against the Tigers, and not all of you were guaranteed to have him active. No worries here.
Curtis Granderson - 3/3, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (14). A rare big game from Granderson against a LHP. He's still only hitting .190 against them, so this was definitely out of character for him. If he could ever conquer his hitting woes against LHP, who knows what type of fantasy numbers he could put up.
Kevin Millwood - 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. That's back-to-back medicore outings from Millwood since I suggested using him as a starter. He's capable of pitching very well over the rest of the season, so I'd give him another chance depending on the matchup.
Eric Gagne - 1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER. Man, who hates when their closers enter non-save situations? This is yet another example of why fantasy owners hate when it happens...they rarely have the same mentality, and thus the same results, even if it's a 4 run lead instead of a 3 run lead. The Rangers are rumored to be trying to sign Gagne to a multi-year extension, but it's likely a very small offer.
Sammy Sosa - 2/4, 1 R, 5 RBI, HR (15). An interesting note on Sosa, he's mashing LHP at a .338 pace. Unfortunately he has 3 times as many at-bats against RHP, so he's not really a platoon option with that few at-bats. Those who own him just have to swallow the horrible .242 AVG. It's like pre-roids Sosa!
Greg Maddux - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Maddux bucked his bad history at Coors Field with this performance, but his bullpen blew the lead and then the game. That's two straight good starts from Maddux after a rough 3 start patch, but he's still winless in 5 straight.
Jeff Francis - 6 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. This is starting to become a problem as Francis has given up 5 ER in 4/6 appearances. Gotta start to question if he's worth being on your roster at this point as this is his 2nd month in 4 that he's had an ERA above 6.00. Plus he gave up a stolen base to Greg Maddux, which is quite funny.
Brad Hawpe - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (18). The .301 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, and 52 R look great on the stat sheet, but beware of his disgusting performance against LHP: .190, 1 HR, 10 RBI. I didn't notice this before, but it looks like you should be platooning him.
Orlando Hudson - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). He's also into this alternating productive months, hitting ,352 in April, .232 in May, .319 in June, and .239 so far in July. However, the 51 RBI and 43 R are solid totals for a 2B, as is the overall .290 AVG.
Mike Piazza - 2/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (2). His first HR since April. He'll get it going sooner or later, and he should still be viewed as one of the better fantasy catchers around. Go get him if an owner doesn't think so, and you have a hole at the position. There's some trade rumors swirling around, so hopefully he stays in the AL as a DH.
John Smoltz - 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (10). Just what you expect against a weak offense like SF. It appears the troublesome shoulder is behind him for now, but given his age it could affect him again later on in the season.
Matt Cain - 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. Now he's just pitching badly. He's too talented to drop, but bench him until he proves otherwise.
Brian McCann - 1/4, 3 RBI. He's hitting .300 this month with 4 HR and 16 RBI, including .323 since the AS break. Let's hope he's back as the same hitter he was last season.
Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 1 R, 2 RBI. Keep it going Manny, we're loving this.
Johan Santana - 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He left numerous pitches up and over the plate, and all 6 runs scored on 4 HRs. Just a bad night with his command, so nothing to worry about.
Frank Thomas - 2/3, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (16). He hasn't shown the same power as last year with only 16 HR through almost 4 months, but he's been a lower tier UTIL option hitting over .290 the past two months. Unfortunately that's only translated to 28 RBI and 21 R.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (28). Morneau is up to .342 this month with 8 HR and 24 RBI, giving him a very good chance of taking home player of the month honors. Let's hope he doesn't continue his trend of subpar odd months in August.
Aaron Harang - 10 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K. Yes, 10 innings, and no, he didn't win. A very nice performance from Harang wasted by the inability to score runs. He had a fairly rough April and May, posting 2 months worth of an ERA over 4, but he's been under 3.00 the past two months to post a season ERA of 3.45. He's still been right on par with last year and he's met expectations so far this year.
Chad Billingsley - 9 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, W (7). When his control doesn't fail him, this is what he's capable of. He's the kind of pitcher who will be unpredictable with when his command and thus his performance will be solid, so don't frustrate yourself with when he'll be on/off and start him each time out. The numbers should balance out in your favor by season's end.
Jeff Kent - 4/4, 1 R, 2 RBI. He's now up to .417 this month. With only 13 HR through almost 4 months he's not the power threat he used to be, but his season AVG is back up to .292 and he's been a valuable fantasy 2B all year long.
James Loney - 1/4, 3 run HR (4). He's going to be a fantasy contributor sometime soon, but since he hits so low in the lineup and plays 1B, don't use him this season. He could be a young sleeper for next season, though.
Roger Clemens - 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (3). What you'd expect against the Royals. I wouldn't start him against great offenses like the Red Sox because he's not missing enough bats to be successful against them.
Alex Rodriguez - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. 100 RBI on the season for A-Rod in 98 games, the first Yankee in history to drive in 100 runs before the 100th game. Given the rich tradition of the Yankees franchise, that shows you what type of season that A-Rod is having.
Andrew Miller - 4 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 7 K. A typical wild night from a young pitcher. He's usually not this hittable, so this was an anomaly for this talented rookie.
Mark Buehrle - 6 1/3 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. His ERA was due to rise, so fortunately it came against the Tigers, and not all of you were guaranteed to have him active. No worries here.
Curtis Granderson - 3/3, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (14). A rare big game from Granderson against a LHP. He's still only hitting .190 against them, so this was definitely out of character for him. If he could ever conquer his hitting woes against LHP, who knows what type of fantasy numbers he could put up.
Kevin Millwood - 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. That's back-to-back medicore outings from Millwood since I suggested using him as a starter. He's capable of pitching very well over the rest of the season, so I'd give him another chance depending on the matchup.
Eric Gagne - 1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER. Man, who hates when their closers enter non-save situations? This is yet another example of why fantasy owners hate when it happens...they rarely have the same mentality, and thus the same results, even if it's a 4 run lead instead of a 3 run lead. The Rangers are rumored to be trying to sign Gagne to a multi-year extension, but it's likely a very small offer.
Sammy Sosa - 2/4, 1 R, 5 RBI, HR (15). An interesting note on Sosa, he's mashing LHP at a .338 pace. Unfortunately he has 3 times as many at-bats against RHP, so he's not really a platoon option with that few at-bats. Those who own him just have to swallow the horrible .242 AVG. It's like pre-roids Sosa!
Greg Maddux - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Maddux bucked his bad history at Coors Field with this performance, but his bullpen blew the lead and then the game. That's two straight good starts from Maddux after a rough 3 start patch, but he's still winless in 5 straight.
Jeff Francis - 6 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. This is starting to become a problem as Francis has given up 5 ER in 4/6 appearances. Gotta start to question if he's worth being on your roster at this point as this is his 2nd month in 4 that he's had an ERA above 6.00. Plus he gave up a stolen base to Greg Maddux, which is quite funny.
Brad Hawpe - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (18). The .301 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, and 52 R look great on the stat sheet, but beware of his disgusting performance against LHP: .190, 1 HR, 10 RBI. I didn't notice this before, but it looks like you should be platooning him.
Orlando Hudson - 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). He's also into this alternating productive months, hitting ,352 in April, .232 in May, .319 in June, and .239 so far in July. However, the 51 RBI and 43 R are solid totals for a 2B, as is the overall .290 AVG.
Mike Piazza - 2/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (2). His first HR since April. He'll get it going sooner or later, and he should still be viewed as one of the better fantasy catchers around. Go get him if an owner doesn't think so, and you have a hole at the position. There's some trade rumors swirling around, so hopefully he stays in the AL as a DH.
John Smoltz - 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (10). Just what you expect against a weak offense like SF. It appears the troublesome shoulder is behind him for now, but given his age it could affect him again later on in the season.
Matt Cain - 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. Now he's just pitching badly. He's too talented to drop, but bench him until he proves otherwise.
Brian McCann - 1/4, 3 RBI. He's hitting .300 this month with 4 HR and 16 RBI, including .323 since the AS break. Let's hope he's back as the same hitter he was last season.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Sunday: Halladay Back On Track, Manny Stays Hot
Bronson Arroyo - 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K. Unfortunately he was left in an inning too long. He started off the 7th inning with a walk and a HR, and then was pulled. He had a pretty solid outing going prior to that, so the optimism about his rebound should remain. Just be careful about his home starts.
Hanley Ramirez - 0/0. He left the game in the 1st inning with a left shoulder subluxation, but it's reported that he could be back in the lineup on Tuesday. I'll report if I read otherwise.
Dan Uggla - 4/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (19). He only hit .241 last month, and had been scuffling with a .219 AVG this month before his big game last night. Hopefully this will be a precursor to a long awaited hot streak. His power numbers still keep him being a valuable fantasy 2B.
James Shields - 3 1/3 IP, 10 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 1 K. To say he was off last night would be an understatement. The Yankees have smashed him so far this year, pinning 15 ER in 9 1/3 IP on him with 4 HR. I benched him last night, much to my ERA's delight. As I stated before, be careful with his matchups and he'll still provide value for you.
Andy Pettitte - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Not a bad outing, but not a good one either for Pettitte. Thanks to the offensive explosion, he had no problem picking up a win. He hasn't been too bad his past 3 outings, so he should remain a fairly effective fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season.
Hideki Matsui - 5/6, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (17). He's upped his month totals to a .349 AVG, 9 HR, and 17 RBI and he's having one of the best months in baseball. He'll cool off eventually, but he's re-established himself as a very good fantasy OF for the remainder of the season.
Robinson Cano - 4/6, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Cano got his season AVG up to .291 with this game, but he's been quite disappointing with only 8 HR and 2 SB on the year. He's really heated up this month, posting a .377 AVG with 5 HR, 17 RBI, and 16 R. It's been the only month that he's given his owners fantasy value, so let's hope he improves over the rest of the season. If he does, he could be a nice value next year.
Carlos Pena - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (23). He continues mashing righties, and currently hits .305 with 19 HR against them versus .233 with 4 HR against LHP. Again, only start him against RHP and you'll get the most value out of him. He's worthless against LHP.
Felix Hernandez - 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. Another bad performance from Felix, but at least this one came against a pretty good Blue Jays offense. Still, he's been completely frustrating since his first 2 starts and hasn't put a really good string of outings together. You have to be really careful with which matchups you choose to use him in.
Roy Halladay - 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (11). Back to back excellent outings have Halladay looking like a fantasy force again. We've been fooled before this year, so let's hope that he's turning it around for real this time.
Troy Glaus - 1/4, 3 run HR (15). Glaus is hitting .315 with 4 HR and 12 RBI this year, and he's been a real surprise in the AVG department. He only hit .241 in May, but he hit over .300 in April and .282 in June, leaving him with a .284 overall AVG, much higher than was expected. His K rate is actually down a bit this year and his LD% is up 3%, indicating he's making more contact, and also higher quality contact. His BA/BIP is up to .318, which is the best of his career, but it makes sense if he's hitting the ball harder. Things seem to point to him maintaining a better AVG so far this year.
Matt Holliday - 1/3, SB (6). His .230 AVG this month is easily his worst mark this year, and his only AVG below .300 of any month. Expect him to heat up again soon.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K, SV (3). A nice bounce back outing from Lidge, who converted his 3rd straight save opportunity. He appears to be settling in, but let's not get too comfortable yet.
Jon Garland - 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 3 K. He was hit hard by the Red Sox, so this shouldn't have surprised anyone. He bounced back well after the shelling by the Twins, but this outing has raised his ERA to a more appropriate 4.15 on the year. He'll still have value, but like numerous other pitchers, you can't use him every time out.
Manny Ramirez - 2/2, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (15). He's continues on fire after the AS Break, hitting .385 with 4 HR and 13 RBI in 11 games. He's made up for the tough start to the month, and he's put together 3 straight solid months. Hopefully this power surge continues, as the HR/RBI totals for him are well below his standard.
Mike Lowell - 2/4, 3 run HR (15). What a fantasy revelation he's been this year. He had a rough June, but he's put together 3 very solid months around it and he's provided great fantasy value all year long, making good on his RBI position in the Red Sox lineup.
Barry Zito - 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He gave up two 2 run HRs in the first inning, settled down until the 6th, then loaded the bases. Vinnie Chulk came in, got a pop up for the 2nd out, the gave up consecutive hits to allow all 3 inherited runners to score, making Zito's ERA look pretty bad. He still has a ways to go.
Ryan Braun - 2/5, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (15). He continues his ridiculous numbers and he hasn't slowed down yet. This is one of the better rookie seasons we've seen in a while from a hitter.
Joe Saunders - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (4). He's had limited starts as the injury replacement for the Angles, but he now has a permanent rotation spot due to the demotion of Ervin Santana. He's put together a 2.89 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a rather ugly 19:13 K:BB ratio. I wouldn't use him in mixed leagues except for in spot starts against weak offenses.
Matt Garza - 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. Not a good outing, but not too bad against a quality Anaheim offense. He'll continue to mix up good and bad outings, but I believe the good will outweigh the bad and he'll have mixed league value for most of the year.
Jason Bartlett - 1/4. I mentioned him last month as someone to keep an eye on, or possibly pick up. He's back down to .268 with only 3 steals this month, but he does have 16 R in 19 games since he leads off ahead of the good Minnesota middle-of-the-lineup. He's not a bad injury replacement, but he's not a quality mixed league SS outside of his hot June.
Yusmeiro Petit - 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (2). He's put together 2 excellent, and 3 decent outings so far in his 5 appearances. He's only up until Randy Johnson returns, and the Arizona offense doesn't score enough for him to be a factor in wins. I'd pass.
Sean Marshall - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. He's really only had 2 bad outings in his 11 outings. He's been a pretty solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year. He's playing on the winning team, but his K rate has definitely crashed down after early success in the catagory. I argue he'd have better numbers not pitching behind Rich Hill due to the similarity between pitching styles, but that's where he's there to stay.
Eric Byrnes - 1/4, 1 R, SB (26). That's 9 SBs in 8 games for Byrnes who's on a basepath tear right now. I'm sure he won a lot of SB catagories for his owners last week in H2H leagues.
Jake Peavy - 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Another subpar outing from Peavy, although both outings came against 2 of the better NL offenses in the Mets and Phillies. It's hard to judge where he's at health-wise, but you'd figure if it was a big problem, the Padres wouldn't let him keep pitching through it. Let's hope that's the case.
Shane Victorino - 3/6, 2 R, 3 RBI. He's hitting a scorching .359 this month, pushing his AVG to .284 for the year. He's been as consistent as base stealers get, swiping 7 in 3 months (including this month which isn't over yet), and 9 in May.
Jeremy Guthrie - 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Another dazzling outing from Guthrie who continues his torrid pitching pace. He's posted a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this month after 2 staright months below a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. As I've mentioned before, expect him to continually leveling off what he's done so far, and consider this an extension on his sell high window.
Orlando Hernandez - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He got roughed up a bit by the Dodgers after 2 straight great outings. Nothing to worry about here.
Albert Pujols - 2/3, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (22). .391 this month, with 6 HR, but only 12 RBI thanks to the weak Cardinals offense around him. He'll still get on plenty, scoring runs, and hitting HRs, but his RBIs will remain down due to the lack of OBP ahead of him, and the lack of protection behind him.
Josh Barfield - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB (11). The sleeper that never woke up. I mentioned keeping an eye on him after a strong June, but he's followed that up with a miserable .224 July. It's possible he'll re-emerge again next year, but he's making that trade for Kouzmanoff (a highly regarded young hitter) look bad at the moment.
Hanley Ramirez - 0/0. He left the game in the 1st inning with a left shoulder subluxation, but it's reported that he could be back in the lineup on Tuesday. I'll report if I read otherwise.
Dan Uggla - 4/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (19). He only hit .241 last month, and had been scuffling with a .219 AVG this month before his big game last night. Hopefully this will be a precursor to a long awaited hot streak. His power numbers still keep him being a valuable fantasy 2B.
James Shields - 3 1/3 IP, 10 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 1 K. To say he was off last night would be an understatement. The Yankees have smashed him so far this year, pinning 15 ER in 9 1/3 IP on him with 4 HR. I benched him last night, much to my ERA's delight. As I stated before, be careful with his matchups and he'll still provide value for you.
Andy Pettitte - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Not a bad outing, but not a good one either for Pettitte. Thanks to the offensive explosion, he had no problem picking up a win. He hasn't been too bad his past 3 outings, so he should remain a fairly effective fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season.
Hideki Matsui - 5/6, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (17). He's upped his month totals to a .349 AVG, 9 HR, and 17 RBI and he's having one of the best months in baseball. He'll cool off eventually, but he's re-established himself as a very good fantasy OF for the remainder of the season.
Robinson Cano - 4/6, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Cano got his season AVG up to .291 with this game, but he's been quite disappointing with only 8 HR and 2 SB on the year. He's really heated up this month, posting a .377 AVG with 5 HR, 17 RBI, and 16 R. It's been the only month that he's given his owners fantasy value, so let's hope he improves over the rest of the season. If he does, he could be a nice value next year.
Carlos Pena - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (23). He continues mashing righties, and currently hits .305 with 19 HR against them versus .233 with 4 HR against LHP. Again, only start him against RHP and you'll get the most value out of him. He's worthless against LHP.
Felix Hernandez - 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. Another bad performance from Felix, but at least this one came against a pretty good Blue Jays offense. Still, he's been completely frustrating since his first 2 starts and hasn't put a really good string of outings together. You have to be really careful with which matchups you choose to use him in.
Roy Halladay - 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (11). Back to back excellent outings have Halladay looking like a fantasy force again. We've been fooled before this year, so let's hope that he's turning it around for real this time.
Troy Glaus - 1/4, 3 run HR (15). Glaus is hitting .315 with 4 HR and 12 RBI this year, and he's been a real surprise in the AVG department. He only hit .241 in May, but he hit over .300 in April and .282 in June, leaving him with a .284 overall AVG, much higher than was expected. His K rate is actually down a bit this year and his LD% is up 3%, indicating he's making more contact, and also higher quality contact. His BA/BIP is up to .318, which is the best of his career, but it makes sense if he's hitting the ball harder. Things seem to point to him maintaining a better AVG so far this year.
Matt Holliday - 1/3, SB (6). His .230 AVG this month is easily his worst mark this year, and his only AVG below .300 of any month. Expect him to heat up again soon.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K, SV (3). A nice bounce back outing from Lidge, who converted his 3rd straight save opportunity. He appears to be settling in, but let's not get too comfortable yet.
Jon Garland - 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 3 K. He was hit hard by the Red Sox, so this shouldn't have surprised anyone. He bounced back well after the shelling by the Twins, but this outing has raised his ERA to a more appropriate 4.15 on the year. He'll still have value, but like numerous other pitchers, you can't use him every time out.
Manny Ramirez - 2/2, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (15). He's continues on fire after the AS Break, hitting .385 with 4 HR and 13 RBI in 11 games. He's made up for the tough start to the month, and he's put together 3 straight solid months. Hopefully this power surge continues, as the HR/RBI totals for him are well below his standard.
Mike Lowell - 2/4, 3 run HR (15). What a fantasy revelation he's been this year. He had a rough June, but he's put together 3 very solid months around it and he's provided great fantasy value all year long, making good on his RBI position in the Red Sox lineup.
Barry Zito - 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He gave up two 2 run HRs in the first inning, settled down until the 6th, then loaded the bases. Vinnie Chulk came in, got a pop up for the 2nd out, the gave up consecutive hits to allow all 3 inherited runners to score, making Zito's ERA look pretty bad. He still has a ways to go.
Ryan Braun - 2/5, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (15). He continues his ridiculous numbers and he hasn't slowed down yet. This is one of the better rookie seasons we've seen in a while from a hitter.
Joe Saunders - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (4). He's had limited starts as the injury replacement for the Angles, but he now has a permanent rotation spot due to the demotion of Ervin Santana. He's put together a 2.89 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a rather ugly 19:13 K:BB ratio. I wouldn't use him in mixed leagues except for in spot starts against weak offenses.
Matt Garza - 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. Not a good outing, but not too bad against a quality Anaheim offense. He'll continue to mix up good and bad outings, but I believe the good will outweigh the bad and he'll have mixed league value for most of the year.
Jason Bartlett - 1/4. I mentioned him last month as someone to keep an eye on, or possibly pick up. He's back down to .268 with only 3 steals this month, but he does have 16 R in 19 games since he leads off ahead of the good Minnesota middle-of-the-lineup. He's not a bad injury replacement, but he's not a quality mixed league SS outside of his hot June.
Yusmeiro Petit - 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (2). He's put together 2 excellent, and 3 decent outings so far in his 5 appearances. He's only up until Randy Johnson returns, and the Arizona offense doesn't score enough for him to be a factor in wins. I'd pass.
Sean Marshall - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. He's really only had 2 bad outings in his 11 outings. He's been a pretty solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year. He's playing on the winning team, but his K rate has definitely crashed down after early success in the catagory. I argue he'd have better numbers not pitching behind Rich Hill due to the similarity between pitching styles, but that's where he's there to stay.
Eric Byrnes - 1/4, 1 R, SB (26). That's 9 SBs in 8 games for Byrnes who's on a basepath tear right now. I'm sure he won a lot of SB catagories for his owners last week in H2H leagues.
Jake Peavy - 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Another subpar outing from Peavy, although both outings came against 2 of the better NL offenses in the Mets and Phillies. It's hard to judge where he's at health-wise, but you'd figure if it was a big problem, the Padres wouldn't let him keep pitching through it. Let's hope that's the case.
Shane Victorino - 3/6, 2 R, 3 RBI. He's hitting a scorching .359 this month, pushing his AVG to .284 for the year. He's been as consistent as base stealers get, swiping 7 in 3 months (including this month which isn't over yet), and 9 in May.
Jeremy Guthrie - 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Another dazzling outing from Guthrie who continues his torrid pitching pace. He's posted a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this month after 2 staright months below a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. As I've mentioned before, expect him to continually leveling off what he's done so far, and consider this an extension on his sell high window.
Orlando Hernandez - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He got roughed up a bit by the Dodgers after 2 straight great outings. Nothing to worry about here.
Albert Pujols - 2/3, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (22). .391 this month, with 6 HR, but only 12 RBI thanks to the weak Cardinals offense around him. He'll still get on plenty, scoring runs, and hitting HRs, but his RBIs will remain down due to the lack of OBP ahead of him, and the lack of protection behind him.
Josh Barfield - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB (11). The sleeper that never woke up. I mentioned keeping an eye on him after a strong June, but he's followed that up with a miserable .224 July. It's possible he'll re-emerge again next year, but he's making that trade for Kouzmanoff (a highly regarded young hitter) look bad at the moment.
AFC Pre-Preseason RB Situations
AFC East
Buffalo Bills - The Bills sent McGahee packing after 2 subpar seasons and a lot of complaining, replacing him with rookie Marshawn Lynch from the University of California. Lynch is a talented youngster with good burst, but doesn't have great long speed. He's also an above-average receiver, but his blocking technique will need work at the professional level. He was never the primary ball carrier of his college team, so his durability is also a concern. Dick Jauron has also said that he wants to use a committee this season, mixing in Anthony Thomas and rookie Dwayne Wright, whom the coaching staff likes. Both Thomas and Wright are powerful runners, while Lynch has a bit more elusiveness. Wright could emerge as the favorite for short yardage and goal-line situations in camp. This battle is one to watch in the preseason in an attempt to figure out how this will shake out, but Lynch has to be considered the favorite to start and could emerge as the primary ball carrier. Buffalo still did nothing to improve the WR situation outside of Evans, but Losman and Evans both took big steps forward last year and should continue to work well enough together to move the ball somewhat. Expect Thomas to be phased out as the rookies learn the pro game.
Starter - Marshawn Lynch
Backup - Anthony Thomas / Dwayne Wright
Goal-Line - Lynch / Wright
3rd Down - Anthony Thomas
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown emerged as a popular middle 1st round pick last year due to the Ricky Williams suspension, but thanks to Culpepper's disasterous start to the season, Harrington's erratic play, a poor showing by the offensive line, and a broken hand, Brown's season went into the toilet. He finished strong after the broken hand with 2 100 yard games, though. Culpepper is gone, Trent Green is here to stabilize the passing game, and the Dolphins hired former San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to be their new head coach. Cameron retained offensive line guru Hudson Houck, so that is good news for improved offensive line play. Brown remains a very talented all-around back who has been held back by one thing or another. A key will be Green's ability to stay healthy and lead an underachieving group of WRs down the field this year to balance out the offensive attack. The offensive line will have to block effectively for Green to succeed. Brown's durability also remains a question. However, combining Cameron's offensive knowledge from using Tomlinson for years along with Houck's ability to get great offensive line play out of less-than-great offensive lineman, there's a good chance that Brown finally puts it all together this year. The Dolphins also drafted a talented Lorenzo Booker, but he's no threat to Brown's job and should provide a very explosive change of pace, and he'll also get some work on 3rd downs.
Starter - Ronnie Brown
Backup - Lorenzo Booker
Goal-Line - Brown
3rd Down - Brown / Booker
New England Patriots - The sulky Corey Dillon was released this offseason, making Laurence Maroney the unquestioned starter heading into this year. Maroney flashed a lot of talent last year, both being able to break tackles and be elusive at the same time. He also catches the ball well, showing that he's one of the better young all-around RBs in the league. Maroney is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, and while he's not rumored to be 100% yet, he should be by the time training camp hits, or shortly thereafter. The New England offense loves to spread it around, but Maroney will get all the goal-line touches given to RBs, and Dillon racked up a huge season in this offense back in 2004 when he was healthy. Maroney has a lot of upside here, and only durability remains his question. NE retained Sammy Morris, a reliable backup, and Kevin Faulk, a versatile 3rd down threat.
Starter - Laurence Maroney
Backup - Sammy Morris
Goal-Line - Maroney
3rd Down - Maroney / Kevin Faulk
New York Jets - The Jets moved down in the 2nd round of the draft to acquire Thomas Jones, and it should end up being a great trade for them. It was a very cheap way for them to acquire a reliable running back that they desparately needed after losing out in their bid to move up for Reggie Bush during the 2006 NFL draft. Thomas Jones is coming off 3 very nice seasons in Chicago that allowed him to show off his talent. He's a tough runner with solid elusiveness, although he doesn't have breakaway speed. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield and a good goal-line back. He's a perfect fit for this blue collar offense. The Jets are also high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, who possesses breakaway speed and solid pass catching skills as well. They'll mix and match here, but expect Jones to get 250+ carries as the primary RB. He doesn't have a lot of upside, but he should be a quality runningback all season long. His value should be similar to what is was in Chicago.
Starter - Thomas Jones
Backup - Leon Washington
Goal-Line - Jones
3rd Down - Jones / Washington
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens gave up on Jamal Lewis after 2 straight subpar seasons, opting to trade for a younger workhorse in Willis McGahee. McGahee is coming off 2 straight subpar seasons himself, finally talking his way out of Buffalo. He burst onto the scene in 2004 with a huge season after Travis Henry struggled, posting massive numbers in a quality offense. Once the Losman experiment started, he was stuck behind a bad offensive line with a QB playing poorly. His dislike for Buffalo increased, and he didn't put forth his best effort. Last year he started strong, got hurt, and then seemingly lost interest when he returned and didn't close well. Baltimore thinks they can revive him, traded for him, and gave him a big contract extension. He will be in the best situation of his career this season. The offensive line in Baltimore isn't dominant like it once was, but it's still a quality line and McNair knows how to lead an offense. Mason, Clayton, and Heap form a solid passing game. There's no excuses for him not to get it done this year, and he's shown better commitment by attending all offseason activities. Perhaps he's afraid Ray Lewis will stab him. Talented but often-injured Musa Smith will take 3rd down duties, and Mike Anderson remains as a reliable backup and veteran mentor.
Starter - Willis McGahee
Backup - Mike Anderson
Goal-Line - McGahee
3rd Down - Musa Smith
Cincinnati Bengals - Rudi Johnson suffered through his least productive year since Corey Dillon left town, struggling with a career low 3.8 YPC. Part of it had to do with the poor offensive line play, which also affected Carson Palmer's season as well. Expect the offensive line play to pick back up this year, even though they lost talented guard Eric Steinbach to free agency. Bookends Levi Jones and Willie Anderson are very talented, and they'll kick in 2nd year man Andrew Whitworth to guard this year, and he could prove to be a mauling run blocker. Their offense remains as explosive as any in football. Chris Perry is no longer much of an option for the team as he continually battles one ailment or another, but they did draft Kenny Irons, who seems to be the heir apparent to Johnson. Rudi is still the unquestioned starter, but if he struggles again this season, expect Irons to start taking some carries away. He's no option in the passing game, but he'll put up enough yards and TDs to be remain the steady fantasy option that he usually is. With Perry constantly injured, Cincy will use Kenny Watson on passing downs again, just like last season.
Starter - Rudi Johnson
Backup - Kenny Irons
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Kenny Watson
Cleveland Browns - The Browns suffered through another season without a talented RB, so they aimed low in free agency and signed Jamal Lewis. Lewis claims he's finally healthy this offseason, but he stated the same last season and put together a very pedestrian season. His long speed is long gone, and he doesn't break tackles like he used to. Any sort of career rejuvenation can be thrown out the window, especially given the uncertain QB situation hampering the offense. The talent behind him is almost as equally uninteresting, with youngsters Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison. There just isn't much to like here.
Starter - Jamal Lewis
Backup - Jason Wright / Jerome Harrison
Goal-Line - Lewis
3rd Down - Harrison
Pittsburgh Steelers - Fast Willie Parker can add "Tough" to his moniker, if he so chooses. Parker received 337 carries last season with Jerome Bettis gone, and responded with a monster season, proving to be the 2nd best value at RB last season behind Frank Gore. New coach Mike Tomlin loves Parker's skills, and wants to utilize him more in space to make better use of his speed. Pittsburgh will remain a smashmouth, run-first offense, but expect them to open up the offense a bit. Parker's receiving skills stand to improve as well, especially with screen and flat passes to get him into open space. There is a major red flag, and that was the 5 goal-line fumbles that Parker suffered through last year. He needs to show improved ball security near paydirt or he will lose his role as the goal-line back. I expect him to do so. Najeh Davenport remains as the primary backup, but will face competition from Kevan Barlow. That's worth monitoring in the preseason so Parker owners know who to handcuff him with, if they so choose.
Starter - Willie Parker
Backup - Davenport / Barlow
Goal-Line - Parker
3rd Down - Parker / Verron Haynes
AFC South
Houston Texans - Much like Cleveland before them, Houston aimed low in free agency to fix their RB issue, signing veteran Ahman Green. Green had a great 3 game stretch after returning from injury starting in week 7 last year, but outside of that he wasn't overly impressive and started losing time to Vernand Morency as the season went on. Former Packers coach Mike Sherman, now an assistant with Houston, knows Green well and will understand how to use him effectively. Green is still a very good receiver out of the backfield. He should get most of the carries with only Ron Dayne behind him on the depth chart, but he has major injury question marks and the Texans offensive line hasn't been good since they started as a franchise. The addition of Matt Schaub should help as he should add a vertical element to the offense, assuming he can stay upright.
Starter - Ahman Green
Backup - Ron Dayne
Goal-Line - Green
3rd Down - Green
Indianapolis Colts - The Colts let Dominic Rhodes go in the offseason, handing over the backfield duties to multi-talented Joseph Addai. Addai was everything the Colts thought he would be last year, impressing at almost every facet of the game, and given that, they didn't need Rhodes anymore. Addai ran hard, has good elusiveness, good speed, can break tackles, and catches the ball well. He's also an excellent blocker. The only problem he had was his goal-line conversions, which is obviously crucial to his fantasy success. Edgerrin James had goal-line conversion problems as well in Indy, although you wouldn't know it by his TD numbers. Perhaps they're just not beefy enough up front to smash mouths down by the paydirt, but expect Addai to improve in that area. Combining that with how Manning loves to throw near the goal-line, and he might be a tad disappoitning in his TD totals depending on how things unfold. He'll have plenty of chances, I figure. His backups are little known DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith, so he has very little competition for playing time. They'll be mixed in for different looks, but Addai is the unquestioned starter and will receive the majority of the touches.
Starter - Joseph Addai
Backup - DeDe Dorsey / Kenton Keith
Goal-Line - Addai
3rd Down - Addai
Jacksonville Jaguars - In a talented RB rookie class, Maurice Jones-Drew was probably the most impressive one of all. Despite this, the Jaguars re-signed Fred Taylor to a contract extension and he's the heavy favorite to remain the starter. Taylor had a big year last season, averaging 5.0 YPC for the first time in his career while splitting snaps with Jones-Drew. Taylor still has an impressive size/speed combination along with great moves, and still remains very effective. Jones-Drew is still a year away from being a fantasy star, but Taylor does remain a health risk. This situation reminds me a lot of KC's Holmes/Johnson situation a few years ago, although Taylor is a bit less of an injury risk than Priest Holmes despite the reputation. Taylor is the veteran starter still going strong, while Jones-Drew is one of the most talented backups in the league given the situation. Taylor will receive at least 50% of the carries, with Jones-Drew getting plenty as well, along with the work on 3rd downs and the goal-line. There's a chance Jones-Drew will get more carries down the stretch depending on what the Jaguars do with Taylor after the year, who won't be hard to cut. Greg Jones returns this year, but with Jones-Drew so adept at scoring, there isn't much left for him to do.
Starter - Fred Taylor
Backup - Maurice Jones-Drew
Goal-Line - Jones-Drew
3rd Down - Jones-Drew
Tennessee Titans - The Titans drafted LenDale White in the 2006 draft, but he lived up to his reputation at USC as an underachiever who lacked a work ethic. White was often overweight, and he battled leg injuries almost all season long, presumably due to a lack of proper conditioning. He is a very talented and strong runner, but his work ethic, and thus his durability, is a major concern. He's currently slated to be the starter, but has a ton to prove. If he has an impressive preseason, he could be a sleeper. The Titans re-signed Chris Brown, presumably for a veteran presence and also to take the work on 3rd downs. They also drafted Chris Henry from Arizona, who was a workout wonder with an impressive size/speed combination. Henry was never the primary RB at Arizona, so he's a fairly unknown commodity. Much is left to be determined via the preseason.
Starter - LenDale White
Backup - Chris Brown / Chris Henry
Goal-Line - White
3rd Down - Brown
AFC West
Denver Broncos - After 3 relatively failed seasons in Denver, Tatum Bell was traded to the Lions, and they signed free agent Travis Henry. Denver has never been about expensive RBs due to the very successful system they've been using for over 10 years, so while the rumors about McGahee were exciting from a fantasy football perspective, they weren't logical given Denver's strategy. That all being said, Henry is a great fit for Denver's one-cut system. Henry had a couple big seasons in Buffalo, disappeared due to injuries, but then revived his career last year once healthy and had a big season in Tennessee. Henry is a solid workhorse and should enjoy a very good season in Denver, but he doesn't catch the ball that well and his receiving numbers will remain unimpressive. Still, given his fit for Denver's system, he should put up plenty of rushing yards and score enough to be a very good fantasy running back. Mike Bell remains as the steady, but unspectacular backup who can produce if given a chance. Henry will receive most of the carries as long as he's healthy. He has a history over the past couple years of being banged up, so his durability is a slight concern.
Starter - Travis Henry
Backup - Mike Bell
Goal-Line - Henry
3rd Down - Bell
Kansas City Chiefs - They have a guy named Larry Johnson, perhaps you've heard of him. Johnson had a big season last year, showing incredible power blended with good speed to run over tacklers at will at pick up a ton of yards. He's also an accomplished receiver and is a factor in the passing game. LJ posted a soild 4.3 YPC last year, and racked up big numbers thanks to a record-breaking 416 carries. The history of RBs the season after a 375 carry season isn't good, but LJ barely carried the ball against Indy in the playoffs, so his postseason workload isn't an issue and he had a full offseason to recover. He's also logged less career carries than many of those previous RBs who hit the 375 mark, and is a bit younger. Still, after all that being said, the number 416 is ominous and it's very much a concern. Not only that, but Johnson lost future HOF lineman Willie Roaf to retirement after the 2005 season, offensive guru coach Dick Vermeil after the 2005 season, and future HOF lineman Will Shields to retirement after the 2006 season. Don't be fooled, this is not the same dominant KC line that they've had the past few seasons, and they didn't run the same offense last year as in year's past. Factor that in with coach Edwards favoring 2nd year man Brodie Croyle (he of 7 career NFL passes) as the starting QB, and LJ's going to have his work cut out for him to reach last season's numbers. Michael Bennett remains, but he'll likely be replaced by Kolby Smith as the primary backup. Watch preseason to see if that does indeed develop.
There's been rumors of GB wanting to trade for Johnson, and that would revive his somewhat deflated fantasy value. However, preseason trades are extremely hard to pull off, and I don't know if GB has the cap space necessary to sign LJ to the long term deal that he desires. He's threatening to hold out, but the list of players that actually follow through on those threats is far smaller than those who eventually play. Still, it's a slight possibility.
Starter - Larry Johnson
Backup - Michael Bennett / Kolby Smith
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Johnson
Oakland Raiders - This team last year was one of the biggest fantasy wastelands in recent memory. LaMont Jordan was stuck in a horribly dated offense that had no idea how to use the talent it had. He had one big game against the Dolphins, but outside of that he either didn't get many carries, or he just wasn't effective. He struggled with a back injury for a while, and then a torn MCL ended his season. Art Shell and his staff were let go, and the Raiders hired former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to take his place. Kiffin will without question improve the offense, but it remains to be seen how much he can in 1 offseason. The Raiders signed Dominic Rhodes, who had a very solid close to the season last year, including running very well in the playoffs. However, Rhodes was suspended for the first 4 games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse program. Oakland also drafted the talented Michael Bush from Louisville despite concerns about his recovery from a broken leg, but it doesn't appear that Bush will be healthy to start the season. Jordan will be the unquestioned starter for the first 4 games, and his performance will likely dictate what role Rhodes will have when he returns from suspension, and also what role Bush will have if he becomes healthy at some point this season. Jordan is still a talented back, and despite being 28 years old, he doesn't have a lot of tread on his tires. He should be productive, and a team willing to utilize his receiving skills along with his powerful running style will reap those rewards. Hopefully Kiffin will be that kind of coach, and if so, Jordan will return to fantasy relevance. If the offensive line play improves under the new coaching staff and Jordan can stay healthy, he will be in for a nice rebound season.
Starter - LaMont Jordan
Backup - Dominic Rhodes
Goal-Line - Jordan
3rd Down - Jordan
San Diego Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is already one of the best RBs to play the game. He's durable, breaks tackles, has breakaway speed, is one of the best receiving backs of all-time, and has an incredible nose for the endzone. He now holds the record with 29 total TDs in one season. LT will be back as fantasy's #1 back, and for good reason. Eventually his career workload will catch up to him, but he's shown no signs of slowing down yet, even showing increased big play ability last season over the previous year. He even throws for a TD or two. The Chargers lost former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, but they signed Norv Turner to replace him, who's probably the most fantasy RB-friendly offensive coordinator in the game today. Turner helped LaMont Jordan have a breakthrough 2005 season, and then did the same for Frank Gore in 2006. The offense remains, Phillip Rivers will be a year better, and Michael Turner is back as one of the best backups in the NFL. There's no reason not to love LT heading into 2007, although expecting a repeat 29 TD season would be foolish. Expect him to drop back to around 15 or so, perhaps finishing with as many as 20. I also expect the coaching staff to use Michael Turner more frequently as well to keep LT fresh and utilize Turner's skills.
Starter - LaDainian Tomlinson
Backup - Michael Turner
Goal-Line - Tomlinson
3rd Down - Tomlinson
Buffalo Bills - The Bills sent McGahee packing after 2 subpar seasons and a lot of complaining, replacing him with rookie Marshawn Lynch from the University of California. Lynch is a talented youngster with good burst, but doesn't have great long speed. He's also an above-average receiver, but his blocking technique will need work at the professional level. He was never the primary ball carrier of his college team, so his durability is also a concern. Dick Jauron has also said that he wants to use a committee this season, mixing in Anthony Thomas and rookie Dwayne Wright, whom the coaching staff likes. Both Thomas and Wright are powerful runners, while Lynch has a bit more elusiveness. Wright could emerge as the favorite for short yardage and goal-line situations in camp. This battle is one to watch in the preseason in an attempt to figure out how this will shake out, but Lynch has to be considered the favorite to start and could emerge as the primary ball carrier. Buffalo still did nothing to improve the WR situation outside of Evans, but Losman and Evans both took big steps forward last year and should continue to work well enough together to move the ball somewhat. Expect Thomas to be phased out as the rookies learn the pro game.
Starter - Marshawn Lynch
Backup - Anthony Thomas / Dwayne Wright
Goal-Line - Lynch / Wright
3rd Down - Anthony Thomas
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown emerged as a popular middle 1st round pick last year due to the Ricky Williams suspension, but thanks to Culpepper's disasterous start to the season, Harrington's erratic play, a poor showing by the offensive line, and a broken hand, Brown's season went into the toilet. He finished strong after the broken hand with 2 100 yard games, though. Culpepper is gone, Trent Green is here to stabilize the passing game, and the Dolphins hired former San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to be their new head coach. Cameron retained offensive line guru Hudson Houck, so that is good news for improved offensive line play. Brown remains a very talented all-around back who has been held back by one thing or another. A key will be Green's ability to stay healthy and lead an underachieving group of WRs down the field this year to balance out the offensive attack. The offensive line will have to block effectively for Green to succeed. Brown's durability also remains a question. However, combining Cameron's offensive knowledge from using Tomlinson for years along with Houck's ability to get great offensive line play out of less-than-great offensive lineman, there's a good chance that Brown finally puts it all together this year. The Dolphins also drafted a talented Lorenzo Booker, but he's no threat to Brown's job and should provide a very explosive change of pace, and he'll also get some work on 3rd downs.
Starter - Ronnie Brown
Backup - Lorenzo Booker
Goal-Line - Brown
3rd Down - Brown / Booker
New England Patriots - The sulky Corey Dillon was released this offseason, making Laurence Maroney the unquestioned starter heading into this year. Maroney flashed a lot of talent last year, both being able to break tackles and be elusive at the same time. He also catches the ball well, showing that he's one of the better young all-around RBs in the league. Maroney is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, and while he's not rumored to be 100% yet, he should be by the time training camp hits, or shortly thereafter. The New England offense loves to spread it around, but Maroney will get all the goal-line touches given to RBs, and Dillon racked up a huge season in this offense back in 2004 when he was healthy. Maroney has a lot of upside here, and only durability remains his question. NE retained Sammy Morris, a reliable backup, and Kevin Faulk, a versatile 3rd down threat.
Starter - Laurence Maroney
Backup - Sammy Morris
Goal-Line - Maroney
3rd Down - Maroney / Kevin Faulk
New York Jets - The Jets moved down in the 2nd round of the draft to acquire Thomas Jones, and it should end up being a great trade for them. It was a very cheap way for them to acquire a reliable running back that they desparately needed after losing out in their bid to move up for Reggie Bush during the 2006 NFL draft. Thomas Jones is coming off 3 very nice seasons in Chicago that allowed him to show off his talent. He's a tough runner with solid elusiveness, although he doesn't have breakaway speed. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield and a good goal-line back. He's a perfect fit for this blue collar offense. The Jets are also high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, who possesses breakaway speed and solid pass catching skills as well. They'll mix and match here, but expect Jones to get 250+ carries as the primary RB. He doesn't have a lot of upside, but he should be a quality runningback all season long. His value should be similar to what is was in Chicago.
Starter - Thomas Jones
Backup - Leon Washington
Goal-Line - Jones
3rd Down - Jones / Washington
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens gave up on Jamal Lewis after 2 straight subpar seasons, opting to trade for a younger workhorse in Willis McGahee. McGahee is coming off 2 straight subpar seasons himself, finally talking his way out of Buffalo. He burst onto the scene in 2004 with a huge season after Travis Henry struggled, posting massive numbers in a quality offense. Once the Losman experiment started, he was stuck behind a bad offensive line with a QB playing poorly. His dislike for Buffalo increased, and he didn't put forth his best effort. Last year he started strong, got hurt, and then seemingly lost interest when he returned and didn't close well. Baltimore thinks they can revive him, traded for him, and gave him a big contract extension. He will be in the best situation of his career this season. The offensive line in Baltimore isn't dominant like it once was, but it's still a quality line and McNair knows how to lead an offense. Mason, Clayton, and Heap form a solid passing game. There's no excuses for him not to get it done this year, and he's shown better commitment by attending all offseason activities. Perhaps he's afraid Ray Lewis will stab him. Talented but often-injured Musa Smith will take 3rd down duties, and Mike Anderson remains as a reliable backup and veteran mentor.
Starter - Willis McGahee
Backup - Mike Anderson
Goal-Line - McGahee
3rd Down - Musa Smith
Cincinnati Bengals - Rudi Johnson suffered through his least productive year since Corey Dillon left town, struggling with a career low 3.8 YPC. Part of it had to do with the poor offensive line play, which also affected Carson Palmer's season as well. Expect the offensive line play to pick back up this year, even though they lost talented guard Eric Steinbach to free agency. Bookends Levi Jones and Willie Anderson are very talented, and they'll kick in 2nd year man Andrew Whitworth to guard this year, and he could prove to be a mauling run blocker. Their offense remains as explosive as any in football. Chris Perry is no longer much of an option for the team as he continually battles one ailment or another, but they did draft Kenny Irons, who seems to be the heir apparent to Johnson. Rudi is still the unquestioned starter, but if he struggles again this season, expect Irons to start taking some carries away. He's no option in the passing game, but he'll put up enough yards and TDs to be remain the steady fantasy option that he usually is. With Perry constantly injured, Cincy will use Kenny Watson on passing downs again, just like last season.
Starter - Rudi Johnson
Backup - Kenny Irons
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Kenny Watson
Cleveland Browns - The Browns suffered through another season without a talented RB, so they aimed low in free agency and signed Jamal Lewis. Lewis claims he's finally healthy this offseason, but he stated the same last season and put together a very pedestrian season. His long speed is long gone, and he doesn't break tackles like he used to. Any sort of career rejuvenation can be thrown out the window, especially given the uncertain QB situation hampering the offense. The talent behind him is almost as equally uninteresting, with youngsters Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison. There just isn't much to like here.
Starter - Jamal Lewis
Backup - Jason Wright / Jerome Harrison
Goal-Line - Lewis
3rd Down - Harrison
Pittsburgh Steelers - Fast Willie Parker can add "Tough" to his moniker, if he so chooses. Parker received 337 carries last season with Jerome Bettis gone, and responded with a monster season, proving to be the 2nd best value at RB last season behind Frank Gore. New coach Mike Tomlin loves Parker's skills, and wants to utilize him more in space to make better use of his speed. Pittsburgh will remain a smashmouth, run-first offense, but expect them to open up the offense a bit. Parker's receiving skills stand to improve as well, especially with screen and flat passes to get him into open space. There is a major red flag, and that was the 5 goal-line fumbles that Parker suffered through last year. He needs to show improved ball security near paydirt or he will lose his role as the goal-line back. I expect him to do so. Najeh Davenport remains as the primary backup, but will face competition from Kevan Barlow. That's worth monitoring in the preseason so Parker owners know who to handcuff him with, if they so choose.
Starter - Willie Parker
Backup - Davenport / Barlow
Goal-Line - Parker
3rd Down - Parker / Verron Haynes
AFC South
Houston Texans - Much like Cleveland before them, Houston aimed low in free agency to fix their RB issue, signing veteran Ahman Green. Green had a great 3 game stretch after returning from injury starting in week 7 last year, but outside of that he wasn't overly impressive and started losing time to Vernand Morency as the season went on. Former Packers coach Mike Sherman, now an assistant with Houston, knows Green well and will understand how to use him effectively. Green is still a very good receiver out of the backfield. He should get most of the carries with only Ron Dayne behind him on the depth chart, but he has major injury question marks and the Texans offensive line hasn't been good since they started as a franchise. The addition of Matt Schaub should help as he should add a vertical element to the offense, assuming he can stay upright.
Starter - Ahman Green
Backup - Ron Dayne
Goal-Line - Green
3rd Down - Green
Indianapolis Colts - The Colts let Dominic Rhodes go in the offseason, handing over the backfield duties to multi-talented Joseph Addai. Addai was everything the Colts thought he would be last year, impressing at almost every facet of the game, and given that, they didn't need Rhodes anymore. Addai ran hard, has good elusiveness, good speed, can break tackles, and catches the ball well. He's also an excellent blocker. The only problem he had was his goal-line conversions, which is obviously crucial to his fantasy success. Edgerrin James had goal-line conversion problems as well in Indy, although you wouldn't know it by his TD numbers. Perhaps they're just not beefy enough up front to smash mouths down by the paydirt, but expect Addai to improve in that area. Combining that with how Manning loves to throw near the goal-line, and he might be a tad disappoitning in his TD totals depending on how things unfold. He'll have plenty of chances, I figure. His backups are little known DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith, so he has very little competition for playing time. They'll be mixed in for different looks, but Addai is the unquestioned starter and will receive the majority of the touches.
Starter - Joseph Addai
Backup - DeDe Dorsey / Kenton Keith
Goal-Line - Addai
3rd Down - Addai
Jacksonville Jaguars - In a talented RB rookie class, Maurice Jones-Drew was probably the most impressive one of all. Despite this, the Jaguars re-signed Fred Taylor to a contract extension and he's the heavy favorite to remain the starter. Taylor had a big year last season, averaging 5.0 YPC for the first time in his career while splitting snaps with Jones-Drew. Taylor still has an impressive size/speed combination along with great moves, and still remains very effective. Jones-Drew is still a year away from being a fantasy star, but Taylor does remain a health risk. This situation reminds me a lot of KC's Holmes/Johnson situation a few years ago, although Taylor is a bit less of an injury risk than Priest Holmes despite the reputation. Taylor is the veteran starter still going strong, while Jones-Drew is one of the most talented backups in the league given the situation. Taylor will receive at least 50% of the carries, with Jones-Drew getting plenty as well, along with the work on 3rd downs and the goal-line. There's a chance Jones-Drew will get more carries down the stretch depending on what the Jaguars do with Taylor after the year, who won't be hard to cut. Greg Jones returns this year, but with Jones-Drew so adept at scoring, there isn't much left for him to do.
Starter - Fred Taylor
Backup - Maurice Jones-Drew
Goal-Line - Jones-Drew
3rd Down - Jones-Drew
Tennessee Titans - The Titans drafted LenDale White in the 2006 draft, but he lived up to his reputation at USC as an underachiever who lacked a work ethic. White was often overweight, and he battled leg injuries almost all season long, presumably due to a lack of proper conditioning. He is a very talented and strong runner, but his work ethic, and thus his durability, is a major concern. He's currently slated to be the starter, but has a ton to prove. If he has an impressive preseason, he could be a sleeper. The Titans re-signed Chris Brown, presumably for a veteran presence and also to take the work on 3rd downs. They also drafted Chris Henry from Arizona, who was a workout wonder with an impressive size/speed combination. Henry was never the primary RB at Arizona, so he's a fairly unknown commodity. Much is left to be determined via the preseason.
Starter - LenDale White
Backup - Chris Brown / Chris Henry
Goal-Line - White
3rd Down - Brown
AFC West
Denver Broncos - After 3 relatively failed seasons in Denver, Tatum Bell was traded to the Lions, and they signed free agent Travis Henry. Denver has never been about expensive RBs due to the very successful system they've been using for over 10 years, so while the rumors about McGahee were exciting from a fantasy football perspective, they weren't logical given Denver's strategy. That all being said, Henry is a great fit for Denver's one-cut system. Henry had a couple big seasons in Buffalo, disappeared due to injuries, but then revived his career last year once healthy and had a big season in Tennessee. Henry is a solid workhorse and should enjoy a very good season in Denver, but he doesn't catch the ball that well and his receiving numbers will remain unimpressive. Still, given his fit for Denver's system, he should put up plenty of rushing yards and score enough to be a very good fantasy running back. Mike Bell remains as the steady, but unspectacular backup who can produce if given a chance. Henry will receive most of the carries as long as he's healthy. He has a history over the past couple years of being banged up, so his durability is a slight concern.
Starter - Travis Henry
Backup - Mike Bell
Goal-Line - Henry
3rd Down - Bell
Kansas City Chiefs - They have a guy named Larry Johnson, perhaps you've heard of him. Johnson had a big season last year, showing incredible power blended with good speed to run over tacklers at will at pick up a ton of yards. He's also an accomplished receiver and is a factor in the passing game. LJ posted a soild 4.3 YPC last year, and racked up big numbers thanks to a record-breaking 416 carries. The history of RBs the season after a 375 carry season isn't good, but LJ barely carried the ball against Indy in the playoffs, so his postseason workload isn't an issue and he had a full offseason to recover. He's also logged less career carries than many of those previous RBs who hit the 375 mark, and is a bit younger. Still, after all that being said, the number 416 is ominous and it's very much a concern. Not only that, but Johnson lost future HOF lineman Willie Roaf to retirement after the 2005 season, offensive guru coach Dick Vermeil after the 2005 season, and future HOF lineman Will Shields to retirement after the 2006 season. Don't be fooled, this is not the same dominant KC line that they've had the past few seasons, and they didn't run the same offense last year as in year's past. Factor that in with coach Edwards favoring 2nd year man Brodie Croyle (he of 7 career NFL passes) as the starting QB, and LJ's going to have his work cut out for him to reach last season's numbers. Michael Bennett remains, but he'll likely be replaced by Kolby Smith as the primary backup. Watch preseason to see if that does indeed develop.
There's been rumors of GB wanting to trade for Johnson, and that would revive his somewhat deflated fantasy value. However, preseason trades are extremely hard to pull off, and I don't know if GB has the cap space necessary to sign LJ to the long term deal that he desires. He's threatening to hold out, but the list of players that actually follow through on those threats is far smaller than those who eventually play. Still, it's a slight possibility.
Starter - Larry Johnson
Backup - Michael Bennett / Kolby Smith
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Johnson
Oakland Raiders - This team last year was one of the biggest fantasy wastelands in recent memory. LaMont Jordan was stuck in a horribly dated offense that had no idea how to use the talent it had. He had one big game against the Dolphins, but outside of that he either didn't get many carries, or he just wasn't effective. He struggled with a back injury for a while, and then a torn MCL ended his season. Art Shell and his staff were let go, and the Raiders hired former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to take his place. Kiffin will without question improve the offense, but it remains to be seen how much he can in 1 offseason. The Raiders signed Dominic Rhodes, who had a very solid close to the season last year, including running very well in the playoffs. However, Rhodes was suspended for the first 4 games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse program. Oakland also drafted the talented Michael Bush from Louisville despite concerns about his recovery from a broken leg, but it doesn't appear that Bush will be healthy to start the season. Jordan will be the unquestioned starter for the first 4 games, and his performance will likely dictate what role Rhodes will have when he returns from suspension, and also what role Bush will have if he becomes healthy at some point this season. Jordan is still a talented back, and despite being 28 years old, he doesn't have a lot of tread on his tires. He should be productive, and a team willing to utilize his receiving skills along with his powerful running style will reap those rewards. Hopefully Kiffin will be that kind of coach, and if so, Jordan will return to fantasy relevance. If the offensive line play improves under the new coaching staff and Jordan can stay healthy, he will be in for a nice rebound season.
Starter - LaMont Jordan
Backup - Dominic Rhodes
Goal-Line - Jordan
3rd Down - Jordan
San Diego Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is already one of the best RBs to play the game. He's durable, breaks tackles, has breakaway speed, is one of the best receiving backs of all-time, and has an incredible nose for the endzone. He now holds the record with 29 total TDs in one season. LT will be back as fantasy's #1 back, and for good reason. Eventually his career workload will catch up to him, but he's shown no signs of slowing down yet, even showing increased big play ability last season over the previous year. He even throws for a TD or two. The Chargers lost former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, but they signed Norv Turner to replace him, who's probably the most fantasy RB-friendly offensive coordinator in the game today. Turner helped LaMont Jordan have a breakthrough 2005 season, and then did the same for Frank Gore in 2006. The offense remains, Phillip Rivers will be a year better, and Michael Turner is back as one of the best backups in the NFL. There's no reason not to love LT heading into 2007, although expecting a repeat 29 TD season would be foolish. Expect him to drop back to around 15 or so, perhaps finishing with as many as 20. I also expect the coaching staff to use Michael Turner more frequently as well to keep LT fresh and utilize Turner's skills.
Starter - LaDainian Tomlinson
Backup - Michael Turner
Goal-Line - Tomlinson
3rd Down - Tomlinson
Sunday, July 22, 2007
NFC Pre-Preseason RB Situations
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - This will be a committee of some sort this year as it stands right now. It seemed obvious watching the Cowboys last year that Marion Barber was the better back, but
apparently the new coaching staff disagrees and they'll continue to utilize both RBs in some fashion. It seems likely that Barber will gain more carries than last year, and if so, he'll be the more valuable RB seeing as though he'll likely be the preferred option at the goalline. Preseason might unveil some of what the Cowboys plan to do, so be sure to check the boxscores and see if it's closer to a 50/50 split this year. Jones had 267 carries to Barber's 136 carries last year. Both are pending free agents, so both will be plenty motivated.
Starter - Julius Jones / Marion Barber III
Backup - Tyson Thompson
Goal-line - Barber
3rd Down - Barber
New York Giants - Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter for the Giants this year, with Reuben Droughns being utilized in a backup capacity. Droughns is a well-rounded back, so he'll probably be used some on 3rd downs, but expect Jacobs to approach 300 carries this season. Hopefully be utilized a bit more in the passing game. He definitely wasn't a liability in the passing game last year, and obviously has the size to be able to block effectively. The only knock against Jacobs is that this will be his first time carrying the entire load, so his durability is a concern since he hasn't proven it yet at this level. Many RBs that carry the load for the first time get banged up by the end of the season, especially a punishing runner like Jacobs. Expect him to slow down some as the year progresses.
Starter - Brandon Jacobs
Backup - Reuben Droughns
Goal-line - Jacobs
3rd Down - Droughns, but Jacobs could prove worthy
Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook showed what he could do given a full RB's load last year, finishing 2007 with 1217 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs along with his stellar work in the passing game. He still has some slight durability concerns, and rookie Tony Hunt might steal some short yardage/goal-line work, but he's the man here. Tony Hunt, assuming he doesn't disappoint in the preseason, will most likely assume the top backup position. Correll Buckhalter might be fighting for a roster spot, especially given his history of knee injuries. Once-promising youngster Ryan Moats seems to be an after-thought.
Starter - Brian Westbrook
Backup - Tony Hunt
Goal-line - Westbrook / Hunt
3rd Down - Westbrook
Washington Redskins - Fantasy nation will be paying the most attention to this situation. Clinton Portis is coming back from a separated shoulder he suffered in the preseason last year making a tackle, a broken hand that ended his season early, and then struggled with knee tendonitis in the summer. He also had shoulder surgery to fix the separated shoulder this offseason as well. He participated in some minicamp work, so that's good news about his knee. Ladell Betts exploded onto the scene, posting 5 100 yard games and a 92 yard game to end the season along with 4 TDs and solid receiving numbers. If Portis is healthy, he's the man, but Betts has earned a bigger role. If Portis doesn't recover, Betts is a top 10 back. Portis is a boom/bust pick, and Betts is one of the most valuable backups in the league.
Starter - Clinton Portis
Backup - Ladell Betts
Goal-line - Portis / Betts
3rd Down - Betts
NFC North
Chicago Bears - Goodbye Thomas Jones, hello Cedric Benson. Cedric Benson is the unquestioned starting RB, at least by team officials. Fans remain unconvinced, and so does the fantasy nation. He remains a tough, talented RB with decent speed and he's quicker than he looks. However, he has liabilities in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker. He also has some durability issues, suffering various injuries as a backup and committee member. The Bears love to run, so he'll get plenty of touches, assuming he holds up. Adrian Peterson remains a very unheralded backup, but the Bears drafted NIU's Garrett Wolfe in the 3rd round, who the coaching staff gushed about, saying he was the most complete back in the draft other than OU's Adrian Peterson. The preseason will likely tell us who Benson's handcuff will be, with Wolfe having the upper hand.
Starter - Cedric Benson
Backup - Garrett Wolfe / Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Benson
3rd Down - Peterson, because I can't imagine a rookie like Wolfe will be trusted with blocking
Detroit Lions - Kevin Jones is the starter for this team, but thanks to the Lisfranc fracture he suffered last season, his status to begin the year is in doubt. The Lions added both Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett in the offseason to protect them against the questionable health of Jones. Odds are that Jones will begin the year on PUP, and he won't be available until halfway through the season, if that. In the meantime, Tatum Bell will be a starter, with T.J. Duckett around to vulture goal-line carries and handle short yardage situations. At best, Tatum Bell could put up Michael Bennett numbers, with T.J. Duckett playing the role of Moe Williams. Bell is finally out of the Denver situation, and his speed plays very well on Detroit's turf. Martz will likely find creative ways to use him, and he could be a sleeper, but he'll have to improve on the inconsistency and durability issues that have plagued him. Duckett was very good in Atlanta in his short yardage role, but was completely lost in Washington. He should be an effective short yardage back again in Detroit.
Starter - Kevin Jones (candidate to PUP list to start the year)
Backup - Tatum Bell
Goal-line - Kevin Jones (T.J. Duckett if Bell starts)
3rd Down - Bell / Duckett
Green Bay Packers - This is possibly the most muddled backfield at the moment. The incumbant is Vernand Morency, and while he looked solid in some games, I doubt the Packers are too excited about him being the starter. They drafted Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson in the 2nd round, but he doesn't have a long history as a starter, even at the college level. In terms of skill, it seems like Jackson is the favorite, but Morency has spent a year in the GB system. This is another preseason battle that's well worth watching, although a committee seems quite likely at this point. Packers coach McCarthy has stated that he'd prefer one or the other emerge as the starter and someone who receives the majority of the carries, so they'll have a battle on their hands until then.
Starter - Vernand Morency / Brandon Jackson
Backup - Deshawn Wynn
Goal-line - Morency / Jackson
3rd Down - Morency
Minnesota Vikings - Here we have a traditional battle between a solid veteran RB in Chester Taylor, and a very talented rookie RB in Adrian Peterson. We had two of these last year with Joseph Addai battling Dominic Rhodes and Laurence Maroney battling Corey Dillon. The slight difference is that Peterson is more talented than either Addai or Maroney, but he also has durability concerns regarding the collarbone he injured twice last year. The most likely result is that both will receive plenty of touches, especially with raw 2nd year QB Tavaris Jackson set to start all year. Both will likely be allowed to finish the drives they're in near the goal-line, meaning no clear preferred option there. Peterson will be a stud in due time, but that time is most likely not this year.
Starter - Chester Taylor
Backup - Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Taylor / Peterson
3rd Down - Taylor
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Most notably, the Falcons hired Bobby Petrino as their coach, and he will be renovating their running game. For the past several years, the Falcons have been one of the best rushing teams in football, thanks not only to Michael Vick, but also to the highly successful zone blocking scheme that offensive line guru Alex Gibbs helped implement. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett enjoyed several very good seasons in this scheme, but Duckett was traded a year ago, and Dunn started to show his age last year. He still went over 1100 yards for the 3rd straight year, but faltered in the 2nd half with a poor YPC and only one game above 73 yards. Rookie Jerious Norwood showed great explosion and speed and has earned a bigger role in the offense. Petrino has long preferred a power rushing attack to complement his vertical passing game, but neither Dunn nor Norwood fit that scheme as both are shifty breakaway threats. He's overhauled the offensive line, but lacks the ideal runningback for his system. That being said, he's going to work with what he has, and Norwood at 5'11 and 204 pounds is a better fit. Dunn won't go quietly as he's a tough inside runner in his own right, but I think you'll start to see the torch being passed this year to Norwood. Dunn's excellent 3rd down skills will keep him on the field plenty, though, and his experience will probably get him the starting job, at least to start the season. Expect a committee barring an injury, with Norwood getting a bigger majority in the carries as the season wears on.
Starter - Warrick Dunn
Backup - Jerious Norwood
Goal-line - Dunn / Norwood
3rd Down - Dunn
Carolina Panthers - Coach John Fox showed an illogical commitment to DeShaun Foster last year, despite DeAngelo Williams being the better back when both were healthy and in the lineup. Foster was given a chance to flatout win the job, and he failed to impress in most games except against very weak rushing defenses. Williams is far more explosive, both in the running game and passing game, and reminds many of Brian Westbrook, right down to his dimunitive frame. There are concerns about Williams' size and durability, but both Warrick Dunn and Brian Westbrook have proven in recent years that they are very capable of a full RB's load despite their smallish size. Carolina is doing the opposite of Atlanta, moving from a power rushing attack to a zone blocking scheme. Both RBs fit this scheme much better than the previous one. All that being said, expect the same thing here to occur as it will in Carolina, the gradual passing of the torch from the veteran Foster to the youngster Williams. If Williams were to ever receive the majority of the carries, he'd be a fantasy star. Watch preseason to see if Fox starts handing the torch over earlier than expected.
Starter - DeShaun Foster / DeAngelo Williams
Backup - Nick Goings
Goal-line - Foster / Williams
3rd Down - DeAngelo Williams
New Orleans Saints - The Saints used both McAllister and Bush with great success this past season, so expect more of the same this year. It was a bit of shock to some, but McAllister showed an amazing receovery from a torn ACL. He doesn't have the same speed prior to his ACL tear, but he became far more adept at running between the tackles and moving the chains. McAllister has become a punishing, between-the-tackles runner with decent burst and speed, while Bush is lightning quick and probably has the best long speed of any RB in the league. They're a perfect match. Bush was far more effective in the 2nd half of the season last year because he learned how to effectively run between the tackles while also using his speed and moves. Bush is the most exciting RB that has come into the league since LaDaininan Tomlinson, but there are concerns about his durability at 20+ carries a game, and Deuce McAllister should even be a little better now 2 years removed from the ACL injury. He had another knee surgery this offseason to clean it out, but that seems to be common among ACL tear patients. Expect the Saints to use Bush more this season than last, but McAllister is far from done.
Starter - Deuce McAllister
Backup - Reggie Bush
Goal-line - McAllister / Bush
3rd Down - Bush
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac Williams, a popular early 2nd round pick last year, was a complete fantasy bust. Williams battled an injured foot and then an injured back back throughout the season, and the Tampa Bay offense under Bruce Gradkowski was a disaster. He only had 2 100 yard games all season long, and scored 1 TD. Williams talent that he flashed during the start of the 2005 season is far from gone, and Gruden learned the hard way that you can't run your starter 30 times a game and expect him to stay healthy. Gruden has stated that he wants Caddy to catch 60 passes this year, which is different from previous years when Pittman replaced him in passing situations. He is the unquestioned starter on this team, but there are durability concerns. Garcia should improve the efficiency of the offense, but the backup situation is muddled between Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski when Garcia inevtiably misses some time this upcoming season. Pittman will still be around to help out on 3rd downs and remains a quality backup, and Alstott still looms to do some short yardage work. This could be a make or break year for Caddy. It's his 3rd season, and he has a lot to prove.
Starter - Cadillac Williams
Backup - Michael Pittman
Goal-line - Williams / Alstott
3rd Down - Williams / Pittman
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Edgerrin James proved yet again that the surrounding offense has a lot to do with how productive a RB can be in fantasy football. He was a popular mid-1st round pick last year, but only produced thanks to the sheer volume of touches he received. His long speed is gone, and he was often hit in the backfield before he even got moving. His YPC plummeted to 3.4 as a result. Enter Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm from Pittsburgh. They should definitely help improve the line, and re-commit the Cardinals to running the football. Leinart has to learn a new system, but expect him to be more efficient as well. The Cardinals should move the ball better this year, although they might be sluggish to start as they adapt to Wisenhunt's offense. James remains the unquestioned starter, and the Cardinals did nothing in the offseason to improve the talent behind him. Expect James to get 300+ carries again with improved efficiency under the new system, but his days as a fantasy stud are likely behind him.
Starter - Edgerrin James
Backup - Marcel Shipp
Goal-line - Edgerrin James
3rd Down - Edgerrin James
San Francisco 49ers - Frank Gore burst onto the fantasy scene last year, and he was probably owned by many playoff teams. The value he provided the teams who drafted him, especially prior to the Kevan Barlow trade, was outstanding. He showed an all-around game matched by few. He ran like a runaway train, showed impressive long speed, and was a factor in the passing game. The only thing that held him back was some fumblitis near the goal-line, which allowed Michael Robinson some chances for a few games, but he reclaimed that role towards the end of the season and didn't have a problem again. He should show improved ball security this season. The only question mark with him is his lengthy injury history, but he held up well last season despite all the touches and finished strong. Norv Turner is gone, and that's never a good sign for a RB as his systems have produced a lot of great RB seasons, but Gore's talent is undeniable and they will probably run a very similar scheme. The backup situation is muddled. Michael Robinson wasn't that impressive last year, and they seem to like rookie Thomas Clayton. Given Gore's injury history, the preseason is worth keeping an eye on to see if either Robinson or Clayton emerges as the top backup.
Starter - Gore
Backup - Robinson / Clayton
Goal-line - Gore
3rd Down - Gore
Seattle Seahawks - Shaun Alexander is the unquestioned starter. A cracked foot slowed him down last season, and he turned in his worst season since his rookie year as a result. He had two huge games against Green Bay in the snow and also an impressive effort against Baltimore, but outside of that he looked sluggish. His questionable work ethic was bound to catch up to him at some point. The loss of Hutchinson along the offensive line was huge, and they experienced some turnover due to injuries. The offensive line should gel a bit more this year as they've adjusted to Hutchinson not being there, and a full offseason with Branch, Hackett, and Engram working with Hasselbeck should help the passing game. Alexander is no longer an elite fantasy RB, and those expecting a big rebound season will likely be disappointed. He's become an injury risk thanks to his large career workload thus far, and the fact he'll be 30 years old when the season starts. The offense won't be explosive enough to give him the TDs owners are accustomed to. All that said, though, he should still be productive enough to turn in a quality season.
Starter - Shaun Alexander
Backup - Maurice Morris
Goal-line - Alexander
3rd Down - Morris
St. Louis Rams - So that's what happens when you feed Steven Jackson the ball. He provided solid value to those who drafted him in the 1st round last year as he went from anywhere between the middle to late 1st round. He exploded onto the scene with 90 catches, showing an all-around game matched by few. He also put aside durability concerns by playing in all 16 games, and totalling 436 touches. The Rams added Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael to the passing game, which should allow them to score even more points this season, especially if Torry Holt is recovered from his bothersome knee. Scott Linehan showed an illogical love for passing the ball near the goal-line, but Steven Jackson scored 7 TDs in his last 4 games, indicating that Linehan started to learn who his best goal-line option really was. I expect more TDs from Jackson this year, but he's not going to catch 90 passes again. 40-50 seems more reasonable. They also drafted his backup, Brian Leonard, who is a big back with impressive speed. He looks to be a talented handcuff.
Starter - Steven Jackson
Backup - Brian Leonard
Goal-line - Jackson
3rd Down - Jackson
Dallas Cowboys - This will be a committee of some sort this year as it stands right now. It seemed obvious watching the Cowboys last year that Marion Barber was the better back, but
apparently the new coaching staff disagrees and they'll continue to utilize both RBs in some fashion. It seems likely that Barber will gain more carries than last year, and if so, he'll be the more valuable RB seeing as though he'll likely be the preferred option at the goalline. Preseason might unveil some of what the Cowboys plan to do, so be sure to check the boxscores and see if it's closer to a 50/50 split this year. Jones had 267 carries to Barber's 136 carries last year. Both are pending free agents, so both will be plenty motivated.
Starter - Julius Jones / Marion Barber III
Backup - Tyson Thompson
Goal-line - Barber
3rd Down - Barber
New York Giants - Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter for the Giants this year, with Reuben Droughns being utilized in a backup capacity. Droughns is a well-rounded back, so he'll probably be used some on 3rd downs, but expect Jacobs to approach 300 carries this season. Hopefully be utilized a bit more in the passing game. He definitely wasn't a liability in the passing game last year, and obviously has the size to be able to block effectively. The only knock against Jacobs is that this will be his first time carrying the entire load, so his durability is a concern since he hasn't proven it yet at this level. Many RBs that carry the load for the first time get banged up by the end of the season, especially a punishing runner like Jacobs. Expect him to slow down some as the year progresses.
Starter - Brandon Jacobs
Backup - Reuben Droughns
Goal-line - Jacobs
3rd Down - Droughns, but Jacobs could prove worthy
Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook showed what he could do given a full RB's load last year, finishing 2007 with 1217 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs along with his stellar work in the passing game. He still has some slight durability concerns, and rookie Tony Hunt might steal some short yardage/goal-line work, but he's the man here. Tony Hunt, assuming he doesn't disappoint in the preseason, will most likely assume the top backup position. Correll Buckhalter might be fighting for a roster spot, especially given his history of knee injuries. Once-promising youngster Ryan Moats seems to be an after-thought.
Starter - Brian Westbrook
Backup - Tony Hunt
Goal-line - Westbrook / Hunt
3rd Down - Westbrook
Washington Redskins - Fantasy nation will be paying the most attention to this situation. Clinton Portis is coming back from a separated shoulder he suffered in the preseason last year making a tackle, a broken hand that ended his season early, and then struggled with knee tendonitis in the summer. He also had shoulder surgery to fix the separated shoulder this offseason as well. He participated in some minicamp work, so that's good news about his knee. Ladell Betts exploded onto the scene, posting 5 100 yard games and a 92 yard game to end the season along with 4 TDs and solid receiving numbers. If Portis is healthy, he's the man, but Betts has earned a bigger role. If Portis doesn't recover, Betts is a top 10 back. Portis is a boom/bust pick, and Betts is one of the most valuable backups in the league.
Starter - Clinton Portis
Backup - Ladell Betts
Goal-line - Portis / Betts
3rd Down - Betts
NFC North
Chicago Bears - Goodbye Thomas Jones, hello Cedric Benson. Cedric Benson is the unquestioned starting RB, at least by team officials. Fans remain unconvinced, and so does the fantasy nation. He remains a tough, talented RB with decent speed and he's quicker than he looks. However, he has liabilities in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker. He also has some durability issues, suffering various injuries as a backup and committee member. The Bears love to run, so he'll get plenty of touches, assuming he holds up. Adrian Peterson remains a very unheralded backup, but the Bears drafted NIU's Garrett Wolfe in the 3rd round, who the coaching staff gushed about, saying he was the most complete back in the draft other than OU's Adrian Peterson. The preseason will likely tell us who Benson's handcuff will be, with Wolfe having the upper hand.
Starter - Cedric Benson
Backup - Garrett Wolfe / Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Benson
3rd Down - Peterson, because I can't imagine a rookie like Wolfe will be trusted with blocking
Detroit Lions - Kevin Jones is the starter for this team, but thanks to the Lisfranc fracture he suffered last season, his status to begin the year is in doubt. The Lions added both Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett in the offseason to protect them against the questionable health of Jones. Odds are that Jones will begin the year on PUP, and he won't be available until halfway through the season, if that. In the meantime, Tatum Bell will be a starter, with T.J. Duckett around to vulture goal-line carries and handle short yardage situations. At best, Tatum Bell could put up Michael Bennett numbers, with T.J. Duckett playing the role of Moe Williams. Bell is finally out of the Denver situation, and his speed plays very well on Detroit's turf. Martz will likely find creative ways to use him, and he could be a sleeper, but he'll have to improve on the inconsistency and durability issues that have plagued him. Duckett was very good in Atlanta in his short yardage role, but was completely lost in Washington. He should be an effective short yardage back again in Detroit.
Starter - Kevin Jones (candidate to PUP list to start the year)
Backup - Tatum Bell
Goal-line - Kevin Jones (T.J. Duckett if Bell starts)
3rd Down - Bell / Duckett
Green Bay Packers - This is possibly the most muddled backfield at the moment. The incumbant is Vernand Morency, and while he looked solid in some games, I doubt the Packers are too excited about him being the starter. They drafted Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson in the 2nd round, but he doesn't have a long history as a starter, even at the college level. In terms of skill, it seems like Jackson is the favorite, but Morency has spent a year in the GB system. This is another preseason battle that's well worth watching, although a committee seems quite likely at this point. Packers coach McCarthy has stated that he'd prefer one or the other emerge as the starter and someone who receives the majority of the carries, so they'll have a battle on their hands until then.
Starter - Vernand Morency / Brandon Jackson
Backup - Deshawn Wynn
Goal-line - Morency / Jackson
3rd Down - Morency
Minnesota Vikings - Here we have a traditional battle between a solid veteran RB in Chester Taylor, and a very talented rookie RB in Adrian Peterson. We had two of these last year with Joseph Addai battling Dominic Rhodes and Laurence Maroney battling Corey Dillon. The slight difference is that Peterson is more talented than either Addai or Maroney, but he also has durability concerns regarding the collarbone he injured twice last year. The most likely result is that both will receive plenty of touches, especially with raw 2nd year QB Tavaris Jackson set to start all year. Both will likely be allowed to finish the drives they're in near the goal-line, meaning no clear preferred option there. Peterson will be a stud in due time, but that time is most likely not this year.
Starter - Chester Taylor
Backup - Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Taylor / Peterson
3rd Down - Taylor
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Most notably, the Falcons hired Bobby Petrino as their coach, and he will be renovating their running game. For the past several years, the Falcons have been one of the best rushing teams in football, thanks not only to Michael Vick, but also to the highly successful zone blocking scheme that offensive line guru Alex Gibbs helped implement. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett enjoyed several very good seasons in this scheme, but Duckett was traded a year ago, and Dunn started to show his age last year. He still went over 1100 yards for the 3rd straight year, but faltered in the 2nd half with a poor YPC and only one game above 73 yards. Rookie Jerious Norwood showed great explosion and speed and has earned a bigger role in the offense. Petrino has long preferred a power rushing attack to complement his vertical passing game, but neither Dunn nor Norwood fit that scheme as both are shifty breakaway threats. He's overhauled the offensive line, but lacks the ideal runningback for his system. That being said, he's going to work with what he has, and Norwood at 5'11 and 204 pounds is a better fit. Dunn won't go quietly as he's a tough inside runner in his own right, but I think you'll start to see the torch being passed this year to Norwood. Dunn's excellent 3rd down skills will keep him on the field plenty, though, and his experience will probably get him the starting job, at least to start the season. Expect a committee barring an injury, with Norwood getting a bigger majority in the carries as the season wears on.
Starter - Warrick Dunn
Backup - Jerious Norwood
Goal-line - Dunn / Norwood
3rd Down - Dunn
Carolina Panthers - Coach John Fox showed an illogical commitment to DeShaun Foster last year, despite DeAngelo Williams being the better back when both were healthy and in the lineup. Foster was given a chance to flatout win the job, and he failed to impress in most games except against very weak rushing defenses. Williams is far more explosive, both in the running game and passing game, and reminds many of Brian Westbrook, right down to his dimunitive frame. There are concerns about Williams' size and durability, but both Warrick Dunn and Brian Westbrook have proven in recent years that they are very capable of a full RB's load despite their smallish size. Carolina is doing the opposite of Atlanta, moving from a power rushing attack to a zone blocking scheme. Both RBs fit this scheme much better than the previous one. All that being said, expect the same thing here to occur as it will in Carolina, the gradual passing of the torch from the veteran Foster to the youngster Williams. If Williams were to ever receive the majority of the carries, he'd be a fantasy star. Watch preseason to see if Fox starts handing the torch over earlier than expected.
Starter - DeShaun Foster / DeAngelo Williams
Backup - Nick Goings
Goal-line - Foster / Williams
3rd Down - DeAngelo Williams
New Orleans Saints - The Saints used both McAllister and Bush with great success this past season, so expect more of the same this year. It was a bit of shock to some, but McAllister showed an amazing receovery from a torn ACL. He doesn't have the same speed prior to his ACL tear, but he became far more adept at running between the tackles and moving the chains. McAllister has become a punishing, between-the-tackles runner with decent burst and speed, while Bush is lightning quick and probably has the best long speed of any RB in the league. They're a perfect match. Bush was far more effective in the 2nd half of the season last year because he learned how to effectively run between the tackles while also using his speed and moves. Bush is the most exciting RB that has come into the league since LaDaininan Tomlinson, but there are concerns about his durability at 20+ carries a game, and Deuce McAllister should even be a little better now 2 years removed from the ACL injury. He had another knee surgery this offseason to clean it out, but that seems to be common among ACL tear patients. Expect the Saints to use Bush more this season than last, but McAllister is far from done.
Starter - Deuce McAllister
Backup - Reggie Bush
Goal-line - McAllister / Bush
3rd Down - Bush
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac Williams, a popular early 2nd round pick last year, was a complete fantasy bust. Williams battled an injured foot and then an injured back back throughout the season, and the Tampa Bay offense under Bruce Gradkowski was a disaster. He only had 2 100 yard games all season long, and scored 1 TD. Williams talent that he flashed during the start of the 2005 season is far from gone, and Gruden learned the hard way that you can't run your starter 30 times a game and expect him to stay healthy. Gruden has stated that he wants Caddy to catch 60 passes this year, which is different from previous years when Pittman replaced him in passing situations. He is the unquestioned starter on this team, but there are durability concerns. Garcia should improve the efficiency of the offense, but the backup situation is muddled between Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski when Garcia inevtiably misses some time this upcoming season. Pittman will still be around to help out on 3rd downs and remains a quality backup, and Alstott still looms to do some short yardage work. This could be a make or break year for Caddy. It's his 3rd season, and he has a lot to prove.
Starter - Cadillac Williams
Backup - Michael Pittman
Goal-line - Williams / Alstott
3rd Down - Williams / Pittman
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Edgerrin James proved yet again that the surrounding offense has a lot to do with how productive a RB can be in fantasy football. He was a popular mid-1st round pick last year, but only produced thanks to the sheer volume of touches he received. His long speed is gone, and he was often hit in the backfield before he even got moving. His YPC plummeted to 3.4 as a result. Enter Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm from Pittsburgh. They should definitely help improve the line, and re-commit the Cardinals to running the football. Leinart has to learn a new system, but expect him to be more efficient as well. The Cardinals should move the ball better this year, although they might be sluggish to start as they adapt to Wisenhunt's offense. James remains the unquestioned starter, and the Cardinals did nothing in the offseason to improve the talent behind him. Expect James to get 300+ carries again with improved efficiency under the new system, but his days as a fantasy stud are likely behind him.
Starter - Edgerrin James
Backup - Marcel Shipp
Goal-line - Edgerrin James
3rd Down - Edgerrin James
San Francisco 49ers - Frank Gore burst onto the fantasy scene last year, and he was probably owned by many playoff teams. The value he provided the teams who drafted him, especially prior to the Kevan Barlow trade, was outstanding. He showed an all-around game matched by few. He ran like a runaway train, showed impressive long speed, and was a factor in the passing game. The only thing that held him back was some fumblitis near the goal-line, which allowed Michael Robinson some chances for a few games, but he reclaimed that role towards the end of the season and didn't have a problem again. He should show improved ball security this season. The only question mark with him is his lengthy injury history, but he held up well last season despite all the touches and finished strong. Norv Turner is gone, and that's never a good sign for a RB as his systems have produced a lot of great RB seasons, but Gore's talent is undeniable and they will probably run a very similar scheme. The backup situation is muddled. Michael Robinson wasn't that impressive last year, and they seem to like rookie Thomas Clayton. Given Gore's injury history, the preseason is worth keeping an eye on to see if either Robinson or Clayton emerges as the top backup.
Starter - Gore
Backup - Robinson / Clayton
Goal-line - Gore
3rd Down - Gore
Seattle Seahawks - Shaun Alexander is the unquestioned starter. A cracked foot slowed him down last season, and he turned in his worst season since his rookie year as a result. He had two huge games against Green Bay in the snow and also an impressive effort against Baltimore, but outside of that he looked sluggish. His questionable work ethic was bound to catch up to him at some point. The loss of Hutchinson along the offensive line was huge, and they experienced some turnover due to injuries. The offensive line should gel a bit more this year as they've adjusted to Hutchinson not being there, and a full offseason with Branch, Hackett, and Engram working with Hasselbeck should help the passing game. Alexander is no longer an elite fantasy RB, and those expecting a big rebound season will likely be disappointed. He's become an injury risk thanks to his large career workload thus far, and the fact he'll be 30 years old when the season starts. The offense won't be explosive enough to give him the TDs owners are accustomed to. All that said, though, he should still be productive enough to turn in a quality season.
Starter - Shaun Alexander
Backup - Maurice Morris
Goal-line - Alexander
3rd Down - Morris
St. Louis Rams - So that's what happens when you feed Steven Jackson the ball. He provided solid value to those who drafted him in the 1st round last year as he went from anywhere between the middle to late 1st round. He exploded onto the scene with 90 catches, showing an all-around game matched by few. He also put aside durability concerns by playing in all 16 games, and totalling 436 touches. The Rams added Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael to the passing game, which should allow them to score even more points this season, especially if Torry Holt is recovered from his bothersome knee. Scott Linehan showed an illogical love for passing the ball near the goal-line, but Steven Jackson scored 7 TDs in his last 4 games, indicating that Linehan started to learn who his best goal-line option really was. I expect more TDs from Jackson this year, but he's not going to catch 90 passes again. 40-50 seems more reasonable. They also drafted his backup, Brian Leonard, who is a big back with impressive speed. He looks to be a talented handcuff.
Starter - Steven Jackson
Backup - Brian Leonard
Goal-line - Jackson
3rd Down - Jackson
Saturday: Dempster's Back, Howard's Mashing
Rich Hill - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K. His control evaded him a bit last night, but he did a good job pitching around baserunners to avoid damaging his ERA. Unfortunately the Cubs offense went cold and he didn't pick up a win.
Ryan Dempster - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K. His owners might have wondered why the Cubs said that he would immediately move back into the closer's role, but then Howry pitched the 9th last night, even though it was a 4 run lead. I wondered the same. However, Howry entered the 8th last night, and ironically lost the game for the Cubs, and Dempster pitched the 9th. This indicates to me that Dempster is indeed back as the closer despite Howry's success in the role. These oblique injuries are tricky, so it was nice to see him not have any complications.
B.J. Upton - 4/9, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). As an owner of him in both of my leagues, I'm loving this, and he's definitely proving me wrong so far. However, as I keep saying. he's due for a slump that will bring his insane .342 AVG down.
Hideki Matsui - 2/8, 2 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (16). He's on one of the best power zurges of his career, hitting 8 HR this month in 19 games. It's beyond obvious that his wrist injury from last year is no longer causing power problems, and given his early season struggles, I expect a nice finish to the season from Matsui.
Alex Rodriguez - 3/5, 4 R, 4 RBI, HR (33), SB (10). I love having A-Rod in a doubleheader, don't you? The stolen base is a nice sign after he suffered the leg injury just before the All Star game.
Jeff Weaver - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. That's 5 outings in his last 6 that he's allowed 1 ER or less. Still, there's no reason to risk picking him up. He has too long of history, most of it recently, of him being a bad pitcher. It's very possible that he was hurting early on when he was getting blown up, and while this rebound could be for real and he'll regain his ability to be a quality starting pitcher, don't be the guy who risks putting him in your fantasy rotation.
Kason Gabbard - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Another great start from Gabbard. I still don't know that much about his minor league history, but I can't imagine that he'll be a valuable fantasy starter over the rest of the season. His overall 26:15 K:BB ratio isn't that good, but he hasn't walked more than 2 hitters his past 3 starts. Not enough info here to warrant using him, but picking him up if you have an open spot and feel like speculating isn't bad. Perhaps he'll go Jeremy Guthrie on us.
Julio Lugo - 1/5. After writing up my Friday summary 30 mins ago, I speculated that Lugo's hot streak could get him moved back up in the lineup, and sure enough he was leading off last night. If you own him, or are debating a buy-low bid for him, get it in soon because of 2 reasons. First of all, as I've mentioned before, he has a history of being a quality hitter, and that his start this year was very abnormal for him. He's been red hot recently, but his overall numbers are still horrible other than the SBs. Secondly, hitting well in the leadoff position for the Boston lineup is great for his fantasy value.
Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W (5). He's really settling down after his rough patch in the early part of June. That's 5 straight quality starts for Lincecum, 4 of those where he didn't allow more than 1 ER. He still has some erratic control issues, walking 3 or more in 3 of those 5 starts, but he shows how dominant he can be when he's throwing strikes. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Dave Bush - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Another good start from Bush, but he was outdueled by Lincecum. He has really settled down over the past two months into a reliable end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter.
Jorge Sosa - 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Just a flatout bad start from Sosa. I wouldn't worry about this one.
Brad Penny - 6 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (12). Another win for Penny, who tied Zambrano atop the NL leaderboard in wins. He's bounced back well after that bad start earlier this month, and he's making me look like a fool for suggesting selling high on him. We'll see how he ends the season.
Jonathan Broxton - 1 2/3 IP, 3 K, SV (2). Saito reported more tightness in his shoulder, so he'll probably miss a few games. Broxton will close in the meantime, so pick him up if he's available in your league.
Carlos Beltran - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (19). That's 3 staright games with 2 hits and a HR from Beltran, who looks like he's going to get hot again. He had been in a miserable slump before this, and is still only hitting .203 for the month. After a scorching .356 April, he hasn't had a month above .238 since. Leg injuries limited him for a bit, and he was heating up after that, but then went back into a slump again. His .263 AVG is destined to rise as long as he's healthy, and hopefully he'll keep this going for a while.
Buddy Carlyle - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, W (5). He has 4 straight quality starts, all wins, and also a 5th start mixed in that was cut short due to rain. He has 40 K in 60 IP, 14 BB, and a 1.15 WHIP, he's pitching pretty well. You could do worse spot starting him against weaker offenses.
Chipper Jones - 3/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .346 AVG, he's hitting about as well as ever in his career this season. As I've said before, as long as you have a reliable backup at 3B on your bench, Jones will be very productive for you while healthy.
Hanley Ramirez - 3/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .336 AVG, 16 HR, and 27 SB, you could argue that he's been a better fantasy SS than Jose Reyes. The two are a lot closer than many major outlets will have you think.
Justin Verlander - 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Ok, so not what owners were looking for versus the Royals. With a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this month, Verlander has been struggling. Still, his 20:3 K:BB ratio is amazing, it's just the .266 BAA is a bit higher than it's been all year, so it's been the hits and not the walks that are getting to him. I mentioned that he might wear down this year given how deep he pitched into last year, something he had never done before. Hopefully for his owner's sake that won't be the case, but it's worth monitoring.
Todd Jones - 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BS (5). Another blown save for Jones, but like I mentioned earlier, the lack of alternatives keep his job safe for now. I have to think the Tigers will be aggressive in wanting to upgrade their bullpen at the deadline. Zumaya is due back later this year, but I bet they add at least one quality arm. Given their strong farm system, a potential fit with Washington and Chad Cordero makes sense on paper.
Jered Weaver - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. A strong start from Weaver, but the offense couldn't get to Bonser to give him enough run support, and Shields ended up giving up the game anyways.
Joe Mauer - 1/4, 3 run HR (5). Gotta love it when your catcher gives you an inside-the-park HR. Too bad it wasn't a real HR given his continued lack of power. His frame suggests the power should develop at some point, but it just hasn't yet.
Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. After getting on a nice role, he's crashed again, and this one was especially frustrating against the Pirates. His peripherals remain strong (1.27 WHIP, 98 K in 113 IP), so he should bounce back. I think he's a candidate to be a 5th fantasy starter assuming he rebounds.
Dan Haren - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (11). He's still providing very good fantasy value as his ERA slowly rises to a more reasonable level. At 2.41 currently, it'll still keep moving up, but he'll do enough in the other catagories to remain plenty valuable. He'll likely be overvalued next year.
Corey Patterson - 2/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB (23). Hitting .358 this month with 8 SB has revived Patterson's fantasy value. He's been hitting 2nd a lot, and it seems like they're willing to stick with him there. Go pick him up if you need steals in your OF and ride out the hot streak. It's possible he'll resume hitting like he did last year, so he's worth speculating on. It's amazing how he hasn't been able to cash in on all that talent.
Jack Cust - 2/3, solo HR (17). It looks like Oakland, despite Piazza returning, it seems Oakland is committed to keeping Cust in the lineup, even if it means putting him in the OF. This indicates that he'll remain valuable in fantasy leagues for his power, as long as you can afford the AVG hit.
Ryan Howard - 3/5, 3 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (27). Despite missing 2 weeks in May with an injury and struggling early on, he's among the league leaders in HR (27) and RBI (79). He's provided a ton of fantasy value the past two months, smashing 18 HR, and he's hitting .359 this month as he's gotten as hot as he's been all year.
Ryan Dempster - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K. His owners might have wondered why the Cubs said that he would immediately move back into the closer's role, but then Howry pitched the 9th last night, even though it was a 4 run lead. I wondered the same. However, Howry entered the 8th last night, and ironically lost the game for the Cubs, and Dempster pitched the 9th. This indicates to me that Dempster is indeed back as the closer despite Howry's success in the role. These oblique injuries are tricky, so it was nice to see him not have any complications.
B.J. Upton - 4/9, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). As an owner of him in both of my leagues, I'm loving this, and he's definitely proving me wrong so far. However, as I keep saying. he's due for a slump that will bring his insane .342 AVG down.
Hideki Matsui - 2/8, 2 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (16). He's on one of the best power zurges of his career, hitting 8 HR this month in 19 games. It's beyond obvious that his wrist injury from last year is no longer causing power problems, and given his early season struggles, I expect a nice finish to the season from Matsui.
Alex Rodriguez - 3/5, 4 R, 4 RBI, HR (33), SB (10). I love having A-Rod in a doubleheader, don't you? The stolen base is a nice sign after he suffered the leg injury just before the All Star game.
Jeff Weaver - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. That's 5 outings in his last 6 that he's allowed 1 ER or less. Still, there's no reason to risk picking him up. He has too long of history, most of it recently, of him being a bad pitcher. It's very possible that he was hurting early on when he was getting blown up, and while this rebound could be for real and he'll regain his ability to be a quality starting pitcher, don't be the guy who risks putting him in your fantasy rotation.
Kason Gabbard - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Another great start from Gabbard. I still don't know that much about his minor league history, but I can't imagine that he'll be a valuable fantasy starter over the rest of the season. His overall 26:15 K:BB ratio isn't that good, but he hasn't walked more than 2 hitters his past 3 starts. Not enough info here to warrant using him, but picking him up if you have an open spot and feel like speculating isn't bad. Perhaps he'll go Jeremy Guthrie on us.
Julio Lugo - 1/5. After writing up my Friday summary 30 mins ago, I speculated that Lugo's hot streak could get him moved back up in the lineup, and sure enough he was leading off last night. If you own him, or are debating a buy-low bid for him, get it in soon because of 2 reasons. First of all, as I've mentioned before, he has a history of being a quality hitter, and that his start this year was very abnormal for him. He's been red hot recently, but his overall numbers are still horrible other than the SBs. Secondly, hitting well in the leadoff position for the Boston lineup is great for his fantasy value.
Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W (5). He's really settling down after his rough patch in the early part of June. That's 5 straight quality starts for Lincecum, 4 of those where he didn't allow more than 1 ER. He still has some erratic control issues, walking 3 or more in 3 of those 5 starts, but he shows how dominant he can be when he's throwing strikes. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Dave Bush - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Another good start from Bush, but he was outdueled by Lincecum. He has really settled down over the past two months into a reliable end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter.
Jorge Sosa - 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Just a flatout bad start from Sosa. I wouldn't worry about this one.
Brad Penny - 6 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (12). Another win for Penny, who tied Zambrano atop the NL leaderboard in wins. He's bounced back well after that bad start earlier this month, and he's making me look like a fool for suggesting selling high on him. We'll see how he ends the season.
Jonathan Broxton - 1 2/3 IP, 3 K, SV (2). Saito reported more tightness in his shoulder, so he'll probably miss a few games. Broxton will close in the meantime, so pick him up if he's available in your league.
Carlos Beltran - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (19). That's 3 staright games with 2 hits and a HR from Beltran, who looks like he's going to get hot again. He had been in a miserable slump before this, and is still only hitting .203 for the month. After a scorching .356 April, he hasn't had a month above .238 since. Leg injuries limited him for a bit, and he was heating up after that, but then went back into a slump again. His .263 AVG is destined to rise as long as he's healthy, and hopefully he'll keep this going for a while.
Buddy Carlyle - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, W (5). He has 4 straight quality starts, all wins, and also a 5th start mixed in that was cut short due to rain. He has 40 K in 60 IP, 14 BB, and a 1.15 WHIP, he's pitching pretty well. You could do worse spot starting him against weaker offenses.
Chipper Jones - 3/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .346 AVG, he's hitting about as well as ever in his career this season. As I've said before, as long as you have a reliable backup at 3B on your bench, Jones will be very productive for you while healthy.
Hanley Ramirez - 3/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .336 AVG, 16 HR, and 27 SB, you could argue that he's been a better fantasy SS than Jose Reyes. The two are a lot closer than many major outlets will have you think.
Justin Verlander - 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Ok, so not what owners were looking for versus the Royals. With a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this month, Verlander has been struggling. Still, his 20:3 K:BB ratio is amazing, it's just the .266 BAA is a bit higher than it's been all year, so it's been the hits and not the walks that are getting to him. I mentioned that he might wear down this year given how deep he pitched into last year, something he had never done before. Hopefully for his owner's sake that won't be the case, but it's worth monitoring.
Todd Jones - 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BS (5). Another blown save for Jones, but like I mentioned earlier, the lack of alternatives keep his job safe for now. I have to think the Tigers will be aggressive in wanting to upgrade their bullpen at the deadline. Zumaya is due back later this year, but I bet they add at least one quality arm. Given their strong farm system, a potential fit with Washington and Chad Cordero makes sense on paper.
Jered Weaver - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. A strong start from Weaver, but the offense couldn't get to Bonser to give him enough run support, and Shields ended up giving up the game anyways.
Joe Mauer - 1/4, 3 run HR (5). Gotta love it when your catcher gives you an inside-the-park HR. Too bad it wasn't a real HR given his continued lack of power. His frame suggests the power should develop at some point, but it just hasn't yet.
Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. After getting on a nice role, he's crashed again, and this one was especially frustrating against the Pirates. His peripherals remain strong (1.27 WHIP, 98 K in 113 IP), so he should bounce back. I think he's a candidate to be a 5th fantasy starter assuming he rebounds.
Dan Haren - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (11). He's still providing very good fantasy value as his ERA slowly rises to a more reasonable level. At 2.41 currently, it'll still keep moving up, but he'll do enough in the other catagories to remain plenty valuable. He'll likely be overvalued next year.
Corey Patterson - 2/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB (23). Hitting .358 this month with 8 SB has revived Patterson's fantasy value. He's been hitting 2nd a lot, and it seems like they're willing to stick with him there. Go pick him up if you need steals in your OF and ride out the hot streak. It's possible he'll resume hitting like he did last year, so he's worth speculating on. It's amazing how he hasn't been able to cash in on all that talent.
Jack Cust - 2/3, solo HR (17). It looks like Oakland, despite Piazza returning, it seems Oakland is committed to keeping Cust in the lineup, even if it means putting him in the OF. This indicates that he'll remain valuable in fantasy leagues for his power, as long as you can afford the AVG hit.
Ryan Howard - 3/5, 3 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (27). Despite missing 2 weeks in May with an injury and struggling early on, he's among the league leaders in HR (27) and RBI (79). He's provided a ton of fantasy value the past two months, smashing 18 HR, and he's hitting .359 this month as he's gotten as hot as he's been all year.
Friday: Hafner's Struggles and Pierre The Thief
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. That's more like it, but due to the offense's inability to do much against Jason Marquis, he didn't get a win for his effort. The lack of walks is encouraging, and hopefully he'll build off this performance and get back on track.
Aramis Ramirez - 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). He crushed a huge, game-clinching HR in the 9th. He's been a solid fantasy asset this year with a .322 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI. His 41 R are disappointing, but the Cubs offense is very top heavy and they don't have a reliable run producer behind Ramirez. Perhaps they'll look to upgrade that area, specifically a corner OF spot, as the trading deadline approaches. It would definitely be a small boost to his fantasy value.
Mike Mussina - 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He hadn't given up more than 3 ER in 7 straight starts, so he was due for a bad outing. His control was obviously a problem today.
B.J. Upton - 3/6, 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (11). Upton has come off the DL with guns blazing at the plate, and now that the Rays have moved him to the 3rd spot in the order, his value is as high as it's ever been this year. I still think he's due for a slump at the plate given his obscene .472 BA/BIP combined with the 77 K in 65 games, but he's been defying the odds so far.
Gil Meche - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (7). An outstanding start against the powerful Detroit lineup. I remain skeptical that he'll be anything more than a mediocre fantasy starter this year, but perhaps he'll build off this outing.
Kenny Rogers - 6 1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, that honeymoon when he returned sure ended fast. He's been hit hard in back to back starts, but if you look at his current 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, they're exactly in line with what he's done in Detroit the past two seasons. More of the same should be expected from here on out, and since he'll be pitching behind such a great offense, he's worth owning despite the lack of Ks in the back of your rotation.
Billy Butler - 4/5, 4 RBI, 1 R. Butler is up to .333, and thanks to him being buried in Kansas City, he's not getting much attention. Given he's hitting cleanup for the Royals, that gives him solid fantasy value as a UTIL hitter despite the weakenesses around him.
Josh Beckett - 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, W (13). One mistake to Jim Thome led to a 3 run HR, all the runs he allowed. He had another great start in becoming a 13 game winner.
Julio Lugo - 3/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, GS (6), SB (25). He continues his ridiculous run this month by adding another SB and a grand slam. If he continues hitting like this, combined with Crisp's mediocre run as the Red Sox leadoff hitter, he'll probably get moved back up there, giving him another nice boost in fantasy value.
Roy Oswalt - 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, W (9). A very encouraging start from Oswalt, but unfortunately he left the game with discomfort in his chest. It seems likely that he'll miss a start due to the injury, but that will depend on his next throwing session. Given that Houston is out of the race, it wouldn't do them any good to rush him back.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Well, Lidge made this interesting. After a single and a sacrifice, he got wild, hitting and walking the next 2 batters. With the bases loaded, he came back to strike out the next hitter, and then on the last hitter, got a swining strike 3 on a ball in the dirt, which got away from Ausmus only to hit the umpire, allowing Ausmus to pick up the ball and touch homeplate for the force and the end of the game. It's sounding more like Lidge will stay in Houston, which is contrary to what I thought a few days ago, if for no other reason than they don't have enough time to raise his value to make him worth trading. I still think he has a chance to be traded, but if he closes the year strong, Houston will get more by trading him in the offseason as a closer rather than in the middle of the season as a setup man.
Miguel Cabrera - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (23). 5 HR since the All Star break so far for Miggy. He stole 9 bases last year, helping make up for only hitting 26 HR, but with he's noticeably increased frame this year, it should be no surprise that he hasn't stolen one yet this year.
Adam Wainwright - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (9). That's 3 straight great starts from Wainwright, who should start getting attention from mixed leaguers with rotation holes. He's a very talented starting pitching prospect who could finally be emerging, so this is possibly for real.
Chuck James - 7 IP, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. Another great start from James, but he was outdueld by Wainwright. That's 4 straight starts allowing 1 ER or less from James. His walks aren't getting any better, walking 10 over those 24 2/3 IP, so I can't say he's breaking through and that this will be sustained.
J.J. Hardy - 1/4. Well, he's crashed. After a ridiculous April/May, he hit .220 last month with 3 HR, and now he's down to .200 with 0 HR this month. He was well regarded as a hitting prospect, so while we all knew he was on an unsustainable pace, he's slumping a bit more than was expected. His health is what has held him back, so as long as he's healthy, he should rebound to a reasonable level of production the rest of the way. In hindsight, I obviously should have made more of a sell-high pitch.
John Lackey - 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB< 3 K. He's currently in the middle of his 2nd straight month with an ERA over 4, pushing his overall ERA to a still very solid 3.21. The great news is that he's posted WHIPs of exactly 1.18 over the past two months, so it supports that he's still pitching on a mid 3 ERA pace, and that he's not getting blown up or pitching poorly. It's simply evening out for him.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (26). With 26 HR and 81 RBI, Morneau has established himself with Pujols, Howard, and Fielder as elite fantasy options at 1B. It's taken him longer than most expected, but he's producing at the level many expected he would once he reached the majors.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (12). A great outing from Carmona against the Rangers. Carmona has definitely come out of nowhere this season, and ranks among the league leaders in wins. Beware though, his 3.52 ERA does not correlate well with his 1.31 WHIP and 72 K in 122 2/3 IP. Expect a regression, but he'll continue winning.
Travis Hafner - 2/3, 2 run HR (16). With a .303 AVG this month, he's hitting the ball a bit better, but he's only produced 3 HR and 3 2B this month. The power just isn't there right now for him. Looking deeper into the stats, his LD% is down 4% compared to the past two years, his GB% has soared up about 10% compared to the past two years, and his HR/FB% is down over 10% compared to the past two years. His BA/RISP is a miserable .196. Honestly, I should have checked into these more before recommending him as a buy low candidate. All his numbers indicate he's not hitting the ball nearly as well as the past two years, so his poor numbers are not a fluke so far. He's hitting more ground balls, less line drives, and he's struggling very badly with runners in scoring position. He can still rebound and have a huge last 2 months, but he's going to flatout need to start hitting the ball better, because nothing needs to even out here.
Antonio Alfonseca - 1 1/3 IP, 2 H, SV (7). The Phillies just aren't producing many save chances for him, and thanks to that layoff, he blew a couple saves by allowing 1 ER earlier this month. With Gordon not being 100% and Myers not ready to come back yet, Alfonseca will remain the closer for a little while longer.
Erik Bedard - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, W (9). Only a Mark Ellis HR in the 6th against him, outside of a few walks. Thanks to the 105 pitches needed to get through 7 innings, odds are unless he had a very efficient 8th, it would have been dangers to allow him to go for the no hitter. That HR might have been a blessing in disguise, especially with the way he's been dominaing since April. He's arguably been the best fantasy pitches outside of Johan Santana over that time period.
Joe Blanton - 5 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. He's been hit around and roughed up his past 3 outings, but he was pitching over his head prior to this and things are just evening out for him. He should turn in a bounce back outing sometime here very soon. Baltimore seems to like him, roughing him up both times they've faced him.
Mike Piazza - 0/4. Piazza was activated last night, but unfortunately he had to face a red hot Erik Bedard. Piazza will get plenty of playing time, solely at the DH position for now. He's definitely worth plugging back into your C position. He was my favorite non-elite catcher this year heading into the draft, and I think he'll resume being a very valuable fantasy catcher over the rest of the season.
Oliver Perez - 7 1/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, W (9). He's defying odds a bit as he's walked at least 3 batters in 7 straight starts, but he's still pitching pretty well, and his strong K rate is a big reason why. It's definitely a worrisome stat trend, and one that is worth monitoring. I don't think he can continue pitching this well walking that many batters, so hopefully he'll work on whatever the problem is. His 1.19 WHIP does not support a 3.00 ERA.
Juan Pierre - 1/4, 2 SB (40). He's only 7 behind Jose Reyes. With 60 R and a .287 AVG, he's been a very solid 3 catagory player and has definitely surprised his owners with a 60+ SB pace so far. I think many were expecting more in the 40s, but he's already there.
Aramis Ramirez - 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). He crushed a huge, game-clinching HR in the 9th. He's been a solid fantasy asset this year with a .322 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI. His 41 R are disappointing, but the Cubs offense is very top heavy and they don't have a reliable run producer behind Ramirez. Perhaps they'll look to upgrade that area, specifically a corner OF spot, as the trading deadline approaches. It would definitely be a small boost to his fantasy value.
Mike Mussina - 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He hadn't given up more than 3 ER in 7 straight starts, so he was due for a bad outing. His control was obviously a problem today.
B.J. Upton - 3/6, 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (11). Upton has come off the DL with guns blazing at the plate, and now that the Rays have moved him to the 3rd spot in the order, his value is as high as it's ever been this year. I still think he's due for a slump at the plate given his obscene .472 BA/BIP combined with the 77 K in 65 games, but he's been defying the odds so far.
Gil Meche - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (7). An outstanding start against the powerful Detroit lineup. I remain skeptical that he'll be anything more than a mediocre fantasy starter this year, but perhaps he'll build off this outing.
Kenny Rogers - 6 1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, that honeymoon when he returned sure ended fast. He's been hit hard in back to back starts, but if you look at his current 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, they're exactly in line with what he's done in Detroit the past two seasons. More of the same should be expected from here on out, and since he'll be pitching behind such a great offense, he's worth owning despite the lack of Ks in the back of your rotation.
Billy Butler - 4/5, 4 RBI, 1 R. Butler is up to .333, and thanks to him being buried in Kansas City, he's not getting much attention. Given he's hitting cleanup for the Royals, that gives him solid fantasy value as a UTIL hitter despite the weakenesses around him.
Josh Beckett - 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, W (13). One mistake to Jim Thome led to a 3 run HR, all the runs he allowed. He had another great start in becoming a 13 game winner.
Julio Lugo - 3/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, GS (6), SB (25). He continues his ridiculous run this month by adding another SB and a grand slam. If he continues hitting like this, combined with Crisp's mediocre run as the Red Sox leadoff hitter, he'll probably get moved back up there, giving him another nice boost in fantasy value.
Roy Oswalt - 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, W (9). A very encouraging start from Oswalt, but unfortunately he left the game with discomfort in his chest. It seems likely that he'll miss a start due to the injury, but that will depend on his next throwing session. Given that Houston is out of the race, it wouldn't do them any good to rush him back.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Well, Lidge made this interesting. After a single and a sacrifice, he got wild, hitting and walking the next 2 batters. With the bases loaded, he came back to strike out the next hitter, and then on the last hitter, got a swining strike 3 on a ball in the dirt, which got away from Ausmus only to hit the umpire, allowing Ausmus to pick up the ball and touch homeplate for the force and the end of the game. It's sounding more like Lidge will stay in Houston, which is contrary to what I thought a few days ago, if for no other reason than they don't have enough time to raise his value to make him worth trading. I still think he has a chance to be traded, but if he closes the year strong, Houston will get more by trading him in the offseason as a closer rather than in the middle of the season as a setup man.
Miguel Cabrera - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (23). 5 HR since the All Star break so far for Miggy. He stole 9 bases last year, helping make up for only hitting 26 HR, but with he's noticeably increased frame this year, it should be no surprise that he hasn't stolen one yet this year.
Adam Wainwright - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (9). That's 3 straight great starts from Wainwright, who should start getting attention from mixed leaguers with rotation holes. He's a very talented starting pitching prospect who could finally be emerging, so this is possibly for real.
Chuck James - 7 IP, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. Another great start from James, but he was outdueld by Wainwright. That's 4 straight starts allowing 1 ER or less from James. His walks aren't getting any better, walking 10 over those 24 2/3 IP, so I can't say he's breaking through and that this will be sustained.
J.J. Hardy - 1/4. Well, he's crashed. After a ridiculous April/May, he hit .220 last month with 3 HR, and now he's down to .200 with 0 HR this month. He was well regarded as a hitting prospect, so while we all knew he was on an unsustainable pace, he's slumping a bit more than was expected. His health is what has held him back, so as long as he's healthy, he should rebound to a reasonable level of production the rest of the way. In hindsight, I obviously should have made more of a sell-high pitch.
John Lackey - 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB< 3 K. He's currently in the middle of his 2nd straight month with an ERA over 4, pushing his overall ERA to a still very solid 3.21. The great news is that he's posted WHIPs of exactly 1.18 over the past two months, so it supports that he's still pitching on a mid 3 ERA pace, and that he's not getting blown up or pitching poorly. It's simply evening out for him.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (26). With 26 HR and 81 RBI, Morneau has established himself with Pujols, Howard, and Fielder as elite fantasy options at 1B. It's taken him longer than most expected, but he's producing at the level many expected he would once he reached the majors.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (12). A great outing from Carmona against the Rangers. Carmona has definitely come out of nowhere this season, and ranks among the league leaders in wins. Beware though, his 3.52 ERA does not correlate well with his 1.31 WHIP and 72 K in 122 2/3 IP. Expect a regression, but he'll continue winning.
Travis Hafner - 2/3, 2 run HR (16). With a .303 AVG this month, he's hitting the ball a bit better, but he's only produced 3 HR and 3 2B this month. The power just isn't there right now for him. Looking deeper into the stats, his LD% is down 4% compared to the past two years, his GB% has soared up about 10% compared to the past two years, and his HR/FB% is down over 10% compared to the past two years. His BA/RISP is a miserable .196. Honestly, I should have checked into these more before recommending him as a buy low candidate. All his numbers indicate he's not hitting the ball nearly as well as the past two years, so his poor numbers are not a fluke so far. He's hitting more ground balls, less line drives, and he's struggling very badly with runners in scoring position. He can still rebound and have a huge last 2 months, but he's going to flatout need to start hitting the ball better, because nothing needs to even out here.
Antonio Alfonseca - 1 1/3 IP, 2 H, SV (7). The Phillies just aren't producing many save chances for him, and thanks to that layoff, he blew a couple saves by allowing 1 ER earlier this month. With Gordon not being 100% and Myers not ready to come back yet, Alfonseca will remain the closer for a little while longer.
Erik Bedard - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, W (9). Only a Mark Ellis HR in the 6th against him, outside of a few walks. Thanks to the 105 pitches needed to get through 7 innings, odds are unless he had a very efficient 8th, it would have been dangers to allow him to go for the no hitter. That HR might have been a blessing in disguise, especially with the way he's been dominaing since April. He's arguably been the best fantasy pitches outside of Johan Santana over that time period.
Joe Blanton - 5 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. He's been hit around and roughed up his past 3 outings, but he was pitching over his head prior to this and things are just evening out for him. He should turn in a bounce back outing sometime here very soon. Baltimore seems to like him, roughing him up both times they've faced him.
Mike Piazza - 0/4. Piazza was activated last night, but unfortunately he had to face a red hot Erik Bedard. Piazza will get plenty of playing time, solely at the DH position for now. He's definitely worth plugging back into your C position. He was my favorite non-elite catcher this year heading into the draft, and I think he'll resume being a very valuable fantasy catcher over the rest of the season.
Oliver Perez - 7 1/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, W (9). He's defying odds a bit as he's walked at least 3 batters in 7 straight starts, but he's still pitching pretty well, and his strong K rate is a big reason why. It's definitely a worrisome stat trend, and one that is worth monitoring. I don't think he can continue pitching this well walking that many batters, so hopefully he'll work on whatever the problem is. His 1.19 WHIP does not support a 3.00 ERA.
Juan Pierre - 1/4, 2 SB (40). He's only 7 behind Jose Reyes. With 60 R and a .287 AVG, he's been a very solid 3 catagory player and has definitely surprised his owners with a 60+ SB pace so far. I think many were expecting more in the 40s, but he's already there.
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