Wild Card Round Playoff Thoughts

ATL @ ARI

Matt Ryan has had an expectation-breaking season all year long, and along with Michael Turner, he has helped take a franchise on the brink of disarray to a playoff spot. Their offense has been good all year long, but the same cannot be said about their defense. Arizona is very comfortable at home, gets Anquan Boldin back, and they have re-found a successful running game with Edgerrin James in week 17. I think Arizona will simply out-score Atlanta at home. There's a chance Ryan exceeds expectations once more and wins his first playoff game on the road, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Edgerrin James. He's going to carry the load this week, Atlanta is poor at stopping the run, and Arizona will score plenty. He's a solid bet for 100 total yards, and might kick in a TD.

Don't Use: I'm tempted to list Boldin here as he hasn't looked right since week 12, but there's going to be a lot of scoring and Boldin would have to be really hurt not to get in on some of it.

IND @ SD

Both teams are on a roll, with Indy winning their last 9, and SD winning their last 4. 3 of SD's 4 wins, however, were against weak divisional opposition in KC, OAK, and DEN. With Tomlinson suffering another injury and Indy being solid against the pass, I think IND breaks their losing streak against the Chargers and moves onto the next round.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Joseph Addai. He has burned owners all year long, but Indy will move the ball just fine on the road against SD, and Addai looked healthy in week 17. It's clear that Indy will use him as the lead RB when he's healthy, and we all know what Addai can do.

Don't Use: LaDainian Tomlinson. A partially detached groin tendon? It's a real shame because LT looked like the LT of old in week 17 prior to this injury. There's a lot of good RBs to use in the first round, and LT simply isn't worth the risk.

BAL @ MIA

I'm pretty sure nobody expected either of these teams to be here, but thanks to surprising QB play from the resurgent Chad Pennington and the impressive rookie Joe Flacco, both teams are ready to lock horns in round 1. Simply put, I think the dominant Baltimore defense takes care of business against a very non-explosive Miami offense, and they score enough to win.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: LeRon McClain. For those not paying attention, McClain has received 20+ carries in 5 straight games, churning out a very respectable fantasy numbers over that time frame. Miami started out great against the run, but went south in a hurry.

Don't Use: Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. This is an obvious choice as they are splitting carries, and Baltimore does not allow you to run on them.

PHI @ MIN

I'm also pretty sure nobody expected PHI to be here, especially after the embarassing tie against Cincy followed by Baltimore beating the shit out of them and the benching of McNabb in that game. Since that benching, however, McNabb has regained his form among the better QBs in the NFL and he looked like the old McNabb while making plays while moving the pocket. PHI's defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is one of the best in the business, so I fully expect the old Tavaris Jackson to resurface against the vicious PHI pass rush and the Eagles to take this game without much of a problem.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Visanthe Shiancoe. Jackson certainly isn't going to have time to look downfield for Berrian, so I expect a workman type day from Shiancoe in a week that features numerous weak TE options outside the Gates/Clark match up.

Don't Use: Tavaris Jackson. He ended the season on a great note, and might have you thinking sneaky play, but he is not cut out for handling the massive blitzing that he is sure to face in this game.

Ugh

Between work, a trip to Vegas, and the hectic Christmas season, I was unable to keep the injuries up to date for the final 2 weeks, so I apologize once again for doing that. Luckily there wasn't dick to pick up on the waiver wire, so I didn't miss anything there.

I do plan on going back through my preseason draft guide, one position (and player) at a time, and seeing how my analysis panned out. I'll also put together some lessons learned and a few final thoughts on the season. I'm on PTO from work and will be avoiding the computer as much as possible through the end of this week, but I should do my season wrap-up over the next 2 weeks or so.