2010 WR5 Value Analysis

I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier WR5 pick rather than list everyone:

Mike Williams - Williams is a talented rookie WR with Tampa Bay, and he's been making noise at Tampa's camp all offseason.  He is locked into a starting job at split end, and he's going to be a play-maker.  His deep speed matches well with Freeman's big arm, but it will probably take a year for Williams to develop a well-rounded game.  He should be targeted often to help make up for that, however.

Laurent Robinson - A rookie QB is never great news for fantasy WRs, but someone has to step up in STL.  Laurent Robinson looked really good last year prior to a torn knee ligament, and he fits the profile of a true #1 WR with his size/speed combination.  He's a solid stash as a WR5.

Devin Hester / Johnny Knox - Thanks to last season's strong finish, Aromashodu is getting picked well ahead of these two.  You know Martz will turn this passing game into a good one, and there's going to be at least one, if not two, fantasy contributors from this passing attack.  Since this situation is up in the air, it might make more sense to pass on Aromashodu's higher price tag and take one of these guys instead.  Knox has been making a ton of noise in camp, and I'd probably take him first.  His ADP is rising, and I would honestly have no problem drafting him as high as a WR3 at this point.

Bernard Berrian - Favre is back, Rice is out half of the season, and Harvin's headaches are unpredictable.  The Vikings need to throw to someone, and Berrian is still a very good deep threat.  He's a great WR5.

Jabar Gaffney - Gaffney blew up the final two weeks of the season, especially in week 17 when Brandon Marshall was suspended, and he heads into the 2010 season as the starting Broncos WR opposite whatever role Eddie Royal plays.  He's not a big name by any means, but he's a McDaniels type of player, and he'll produce while he's starting.  He's a good candidate stash, and might actually provide better value than Eddie Royal.

James Jones - He's worth a stash in case Donald Driver isn't the same after his dual offseason knee surgeries. He's bee more productive than Jordy Nelson when on the field, and he'd likely start opposite Jennings should Driver fall apart.  He's especially attractive if you draft Driver.

Jacoby Jones - Kubiak wants Jones to win the starting job opposite Andre Johnson, and he certainly has the talent to do it, but like several other WRs I've talked about here, he's gotta be right mentally.  I think he's an excellent stash if he wins the job given the explosive nature of Houston's passing attack.  He's a perfect WR5.

WR5 Thoughts: There's a lot of good talent here, and while it's risky, if you wanted to stock up on other positions and then grab your WR depth here, I don't think you'd be doing yourself a disservice.  I really like Mike Williams and Jabar Gaffney as guys this late, but there's a lot of other interesting prospects as well.

2010 WR4 Value Analysis

37) Antonio Bryant

ADP: 99.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Everything has changed since I originally wrote this.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens to replace Bryant on the outside, so the best Bryant can hope for early in the season is being the slot receiver.  The reason for this replacement was Bryant's inability to get past his knee problems as he's consistently struggled with them this offseason.  Bryant is not draftable.

38) Santonio Holmes

ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: By comparison, I'd rather draft Holmes as a WR4 than Edwards as a WR3.  Given what Holmes has shown on the field the last several seasons, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be starting in week 5 after his suspension is handed down, and he'll have a shot at WR2, but at least WR3 value.  The worst case scenario is Edwards blows up and keeps the starting job, and then Holmes plays second fiddle on a run-first offense when he returns, but I just cannot see that happening with the way Edwards has played over the past two seasons.  I trust in Holmes talent and think he'll be the leading Jets WR from the point he returns to the end of the season.

39) Malcom Floyd
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Floyd never once met expectations last year.  He was expected to be a threat opposite Vincent Jackson, but instead he didn't post a big week until week 17 when it likely didn't matter anymore.  This season Floyd has to step up in VJax's absence.  I think he'll be pretty valuable while VJax is out based on targets, but after that it's anyone's guess.  The thing is that VJax looks likely to not play for a while, if at all for the Chargers again.  For a WR4, he's a good pick.  There's talent in that big body of his, but he needs to show it more than he did last season.

40) Derrick Mason

ADP: 104.7 (9th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Mason, like Driver above, has been an ageless wonder the past couple seasons, exceeding his draft slot while continuing to produce as Baltimore's go-to WR.  Mason contemplated retirement, but ultimately signed on to play for one more season.  Unfortunately for him, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin, so Mason will be shifted into as secondary role as mostly a possession receiver.  His upside is obviously limited now, and with the addition of Donte Stallworth as well, his snaps could be scaled back a bit.  Furthermore, Mason is at risk for falling off the proverbial cliff production-wise, so it's best to stay away this season.

41) Lee Evans
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Poor Lee Evans.  This guy is a top 10 WR in terms of pure talent, but Buffalo has refused to either get a consistent QB or consistent help at the WR position opposite him.  It's a shame that most of his career has been ruined by the franchise he plays for, although you have to wonder why he decided to re-sign when it was clear they didn't have much going for them.  Unfortunately for Evans, Buffalo has once again neglected those positions, instead opting to return mostly the same offense yet again.  Buffalo acquired Brian Brohm who was once considered to be a possible first round talent, but Green Bay thought so little of him that they let him walk instead of being Rodgers' backup.  Brohm is in a 3-way battle with Edwards and Fitzpatrick to be the starting QB, but we've already seen what little Evans can do with those two under center.  James Hardy has been a huge bust, but only Steve Johnson and Chad Jackson stand in the way of him starting again.    All that aside, I think Lee Evans hit rock bottom last year, and I think he can most certainly climb into the top 36 WRs again this season.  I will happily draft him as a WR4 this year.

42) Kenny Britt

ADP: 107.5 (9th round, 11th pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: Britt was mostly non-existent in the first half, but he posted a solid 405 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half.  He is unquestionably the most talented Titans WR, and he should take over the go-to WR role for the offense and be a value pick.  However, he showed up to summer camp completely out of shape, so it's clear that his work ethic is a big question.  So, this is a classic case of talent versus work ethic, but at a WR4 price, he's a solid player to speculate on.  Hopefully the fact he isn't being given a starting job will be the motivation he needs to get himself right by the start of the season.  Keep an eye on him in preseason and see if he earns that starting role because he could provide very good value if he wins it.

Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start.  He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that.  Just don't forget him.

43) Demaryius Thomas

ADP: 114.6 (10th round, 6th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Thomas is a great WR talent from Georgia Tech who has good size, good speed, and can be an all-around WR at the NFL level.  The problem is that he's recovering from foot surgery, and he's still not doing much on it yet.  WR is one of the hardest positions to make an immediate fantasy impact from, so any lost time is a red flag on his fantasy value, and it's not known yet when he'll fully return to practice.  The other problem is the likely rotation that McDaniels will use at the WR position this year as well.  I'd shy away from drafting Thomas this year, but if someone drafts and drops him, keep an eye on him as a possible producer in the 2nd half.

Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season.  Remember the name, but do not draft him.

44) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Cotchery started off in excellent fashion, but then an injury de-railed his season, and Rex Ryan reeled in Sanchez's passing attempts in favor of a run-heavy offense.  I've always liked Cotchery as a player, but unfortunately he'll be fighting for a starting job now with the addition of Santonio Holmes.  Like I mentioned in the profiles for Edwards and Holmes, this situation could play out in a number of ways, and it all starts with how Edwards plays the first 4 weeks.  I do know that Cotchery will start in weeks 1-4.  If Edwards flashes his old form, Cotchery will probably shift to the slot and come off the field more in favor of Holmes.  If Edwards falls flat again, it's possible that Cotchery will retain his starting job, and Edwards will move to a situational role.  At any rate, Cotchery has the least upside of the 3 not only in talent, but also in situation as well as I don't believe he controls his own destiny.  He's a solid WR5, but drafting him as your WR4 and counting on him for a contribution during bye weeks is too risky for my taste.

45) Eddie Royal
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Royal was a huge bust last season.  Before the season started, there was a lot of talk about how he would take the Wes Welker role in the offense and lead the team in catches.  Instead, McDaniels put him outside and made him consistently run deep routes.  This year, supposedly, Royal is actually going to be moved into the slot, but it's anyone's guess as to whether that will happen or not.  The fact is that outside of Demaryius Thomas, who isn't fully healthy and is inexperienced, Royal is easily the most talented WR on this roster among Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and another rookie Eric Decker, who's recovering from his own foot surgery.  Keep a close eye on how he's used in preseason before making him your WR4, but he hasn't lost the talent he flashed in 2008.  It all comes down to how he's used, and he could provide a nice return on investment.

46) Austin Collie

ADP: 125.4 (11th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Austin Collie, like teammate Pierre Garcon, provided a big lift to the Colts offense when Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season.  He consistently made tough catches over the middle and provided solid play-making skills. Collie has good hands, and while he lacks game-breaking speed, he's quick and can get open.  Unfortunately for Collie, since he's not as talented as Garcon or a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, he has the most to lose if Gonzalez is indeed 100% again.  If Gonzalez doesn't make it back from whatever knee injuries ruined his 2009 season, Collie would be worth a WR4 pick.  If Gonzalez is healthy, Collie will likely lose his job and not provide any fantasy value.  He's a player to monitor in training camp and preseason action.

47) Terrell Owens
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Owens, like the rest of the Buffalo offense, was mostly non-existent last season.  Owens is obviously done as a top-tier WR, but I think he can still help out the right team as a secondary WR, and I also think he could still provide WR3 value if he gets a starting job on a reasonable offense.  Fortunately, both of those things happened.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens, and he'll start opposite Chad Ochocinco, so he'll be facing single coverage.  Just like with Ochocinco, if Palmer regains some arm strength and accuracy, then I think Owens can be helpful in the right matchups.  However, if his new team and name recognition pushes him into WR3 territory, tread carefully.

48) Kevin Walter

ADP: 128.9 (11th round, 9th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Walter was a bust in 2009.  Owen Daniels usurped his over-the-middle catches while turning Walter into an after-thought for the Houston offense last season.  When Daniels went down, I expected Walter to resume his 2008 role, but he never reclaimed that magic he had in 2008.  With Gary Kubiak hoping that promising youngster Jacoby Jones can take the secondary WR role and Daniels coming back from his torn ACL, Walter's chances are decreasing by the minute.  I'd much rather take a chance with Jones later in the draft than grab Walter.

WR4 Thoughts: We dropping deeper into the WR pool and we're starting to see less and less upside in this group.  Lee Evans will be the #1 WR on his team, but his surrounding offense is absolutely awful.  Kenny Britt can be the #1 WR on his team, but he's going to have to earn the job by working hard, which is something he obviously did not do once the season is over.  Royal could lead his team in catches, but he's threatened with WR committee in Denver.  Holmes could lead his team in receiving yardage while he's on the field, but he's suspended for 4 games.  Bryant, Floyd, and possibly Owens, if he signs, will play clear 2nd fiddle on their teams, but could provide solid production.  I lean towards the guys who will have a clearly defined role for when I need them during bye weeks and injuries.  All of the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph apply, with Britt and Evans having the highest upside of the bunch.

2010 WR3 Value Analysis

25) Donald Driver

ADP: 68.6 (6th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have under-estimated Driver the last 1-2 seasons, but as I've stated before, WRs get to a certain age, and I shy away so I don't get stuck with someone who falls off a cliff production-wise.  Driver was again fantastic last season for the first three months, but then limped to the finish in December, only posting 11 catches for 151 yards in the 4 games.  Furthermore, Driver had two knee surgeries this offseason, and at age 35, he's a major risk without the upside anymore.  I'd much rather speculate on James Jones later in the draft than rely on Driver to be my WR2/3.

Update: Driver has looked fully healthy in the preseason, so he's safe to draft as a WR3.  His health risk and Finley stealing some of his targets will keep his upside limited, however.

26) Santana Moss

ADP: 71.1 (6th round, 11th pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Moss has certainly developed into an enigma during his career.  He flashed insane talent during 2005 with 1400+ yards ad 8 TDs, but he's only gone over 1,000 yards once in 4 years since then.  Moss has had some annoying injury problems during his career that has slowed him some, but his problems have mostly been because of his surrounding offensive situation.  Enter Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb.  Washington's offense should markedly improve with both of them in town, and McNabb's cannon arm certainly matches well with Moss' speed.  Combine that with Washington's aging RB situation and the fact they'll veer towards the pass, and you have the recipe for some value.  I would gladly take Moss as my WR2, and he's a steal as a WR3.  I would be willing to reach as far as the late 5th to grab him.  Just keep an eye if anything comes of his PED situation from this summer to ensure he isn't suspended.

27) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 71.4 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Make no question about it: Vincent Jackson is a top 10 talent.  If he didn't have a suspension and a possible holdout looming over his head, he'd be selected among the top 10 WRs in fantasy.  The problem is that he's going to serve a 3 game suspension to start the season, and he's also in the midst of a holdout as he's vastly underpaid as one of the NFL's top young WRs.  Besides Dwayne Bowe, VJax presents the ultimate boom/bust value.  The best case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, signs his contract, and plays 13 games, probably providing WR1 value during that time.  The worse case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, and then he holds out an extra 7 games.  The 10 game mark is key because if he misses more than that, then he loses a year towards free agency, and he'd have to deal with this mess again next season rather than become a free agent.  His value becomes a battle between the resolve of VJax and G.M. A.J. Smith, and Smith has not been known to back down.  Honestly I think Smith should pony up some up-front money to keep him happy as teams are hampered in their ability to sign players to long-term deals at the moment with the CBA looming.  Drafting VJax makes sense if you can get him as a WR4, but drafting him as someone you expect week 1 contributions from is too dangerous.  It's completely unknown if or how long he'll hold out past his 3 game suspension.

Update: This situation is a mess.  There was at least one trade offer on the table, but the Chargers felt they didn't receive enough in return.  Saturday morning marked Jackson getting another 3 games tacked on, so while with the Chargers, he will miss at least 6 games, and I doubt he plays at that point.  His best bet is a trade, and hopefully the NFLPA will step in and rule that the additional 3 games the Chargers gave him won't be transferred to a new team.  It would obviously help his trade value.

28) Mike Wallace

ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Wallace burst onto the scene as a rookie, and he was so good that Pittsburgh cut the cord on Santonio Holmes after his latest run-in with the law.  There's no way they would have dumped Holmes unless they were positive that Wallace could step up and provide similar production.  Wallace is an outstanding deep threat and is developing into a fine all-around WR.  The only reservation I have about him is while Big Ben is serving his suspension.  Pittsburgh's offensive line is weak, and while Roethlisberger's athleticism allows him to still make plays down the field, stand-in starter Byron Leftwich is the EXACT opposite of an athletic QB.  If Leftwich isn't getting time, Wallace won't get the ball down the field.  This is very similar to the situation that Jennings ran into during the first half of last season.  I expect Wallace to be an impact fantasy WR with WR2 value when Big Ben returns, but be careful during the first month.  I wouldn't take him as my WR2 as I think you'll handicap yourself during that first month.

29) Robert Meachem
ADP: 75.3 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Meachem has always been an intriguing talent since he was drafted, but he didn't put together production until last season.  He was kinda quiet in the first half outside of one big game, but he put together a nice 2nd half with 426 yards and 6 TDs.  He needs to become more consistent from game-to-game, but in an offense as good as New Orleans, and with the Saints looking for that steady WR opposite Marques Colston, Meachem has upside.  He's a risk thanks to that lack of consistency so far, but his situation and talent make him an appealing WR3 if he can put it all together.  He's best paired with a solid WR4 in case he busts.

Update: Henderson has been running ahead of Meachem thanks to his battle with a toe injury, so I wouldn't go drafting Meachem as a WR3 considering it seems likely he'll get off to a slow start.  I like his prospects over the course of the season and would still draft him as a WR4.

30) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 79.5 (7th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Speaking of enigmas, is there a bigger one than Braylon Edwards?  After turning in a monster season in 2007, Edwards has tossed up back-to-back miserable efforts.  His talent certainly isn't the problem as he is a big, fast WR who can get open without a problem.  It's not injuries as he hasn't suffered one since his big season.  It's simply a lack of dedication to his craft.  He continues to drop inexcusable passes and simply does not try hard all the time.  He looked rejuvenated for about a week in NY after getting out of Cleveland, but he reverted to his unimpressive self afterwards, tossing in 2 good games from that first NY game forward. The good news is that he has the biggest motivation of his career, and that might be what he needs to get jump started.  The bad news is that he'll be worthless to fantasy leaguers if he doesn't start producing.  The starting job is his for 4 weeks while newly acquired Santonio Holmes is on suspension, so he'll have a month to prove that he belongs out there.  Once Holmes returns, with Cotchery still in the fold, Edwards will need to impress during that month to earn a starting job.  There's no question that Holmes has been the far better receiver in the past couple seasons, but I think the Jets would love for Edwards to step up to be an outside receiver opposite Holmes while Cotchery works in the slot.  If he plays well, he could be very valuable for the first month, but then targets becomes a big issue on a run-first offense once Holmes returns.  If he doesn't play well, then you've wasted a draft pick.  I don't think the possible benefit outweighs the risk.

31) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 81.0 (7th round, 9th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Housh severely disappointed his owners last season with a very mediocre performance.  Seattle's offense was simply not very good in any aspect, and it doesn't look like there will be marked improvement this year either.  Housh doesn't make big plays anymore and is solely a possession receiver at this point in his career.  I would much rather take a chance with Golden Tate much later in the draft than take a minimal upside receiver as my 3rd WR.

Update: Seattle released Housh, and he signed with the Ravens.  He'll be nothing more than a slot receiver, and it would take an injury to Boldin or Mason to make him worth considering.

32) Steve Breaston
ADP: 83.4 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Those drafting Breaston last season should have known better as he was merely the third option in an offense with a QB set to regress, but he most certainly disappointed those who drafted him.  He missed the first game of the season, started off reasonably well in September/October, but then he wasn't startable over the rest of the season.  Anquan Boldin has been traded, so Breaston has a chance to have a full-time starting gig this season.  The problem is that with the retirement of Kurt Warner, there will be less opportunities, and Breaston is also battling Early Doucet for that starting job.  I think he's a solid speculator pick as a WR4, but unless he wins the starting job, he has no chance of living up to this ADP.  I'll pass.

33) Devin Aromashodu
ADP: 84.8 (8th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Aromashodu came out of nowhere late last season to emerge as the Bears go-to receiver for the final two weeks of the season, so naturally he's a popular sleeper now that Mike Martz is running the Bears offense.  He's certainly the tallest of the group, but the Bears' WR depth chart is a mess right now between Aromashodu, Knox, and Hester, so it's hard to figure out who will be favored.  At least one of these guys is going to be a good value, but it's anyone's guess as to who that is.  As it stands right now, Aromashodu is in the slot while Hester and Knox are split out wide.  Normally this would be a bad thing, but in Martz's offense, guys like Az-Hakim and Mike Furrey have become fantasy options playing that position.  There's much left to be determined here, but Cutler clearly likes the kid, and that can't hurt as long as he's on the field consistently. There's some downside if he ends up not being the go-to target, but that is mostly balanced out by his upside of becoming that go-to target.  Watch training camp and preseason closely.

34) Dez Bryant

ADP: 86.7 (8th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Dez Bryant's draft-day slide reminds me a bit of Randy Moss'.  Both were clearly the best WR in their draft, but character concerns, whether it's warranted in Bryant's case or not, hurt their draft stock.  Bryant didn't land in the most ideal situation as he's going to be second fiddle to Miles Austin, but the extra defensive attention paid to Austin should benefit him some, too, as he adjusts to the NFL game.  Additionally, he joined a very good QB who's going to have no problem getting him the ball.  Exactly how many targets he'll get with Austin and Witten remains to be seen, but he's going to get open and he's going to make plays.  The complicating matter here is that Bryant suffered a high sprained ankle in practice this weekend.  This will set Bryant's growth back a bit, but I still like his prospects for this season.  Once he's healthy, he will beat out Roy Williams.  He may start a bit slow, but if the injury makes his ADP slide a bit, jump.

35) Wes Welker
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Wes Welker's value is impossible to determine right now.  There's 3 things that can happen.  Firstly, he could end up on PUP and miss the first 6 weeks, which would make it impossible for him to live up to this draft slot.  Secondly, he could start the season, but start slow as he recovers, and end up with value very near to his ADP.  Thirdly, he could start the season, fully healthy, and outperform his ADP as a healthy Welker is a top 20 WR.  The reports have been overwhelming positive before, but it's rare when you see a negative report about a big name player recovering from a serious injury, so it's hard to put a lot of stock into it until we see him actually play.  We'll have to see how he looks in preseason and figure out if he'll be on PUP or not, but as it stands at this very moment, I would not spend a pick on him as a WR3.

Update: Welker has looked good, but has cautioned that he does not feel 100% yet.  I think he makes for a fine WR4, but don't expect the old Welker right out of the gate.  I've seen him be drafted as high as a WR2.  Don't do that.

36) Julian Edelman

ADP: 98.7 (9th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: There's absolutely no reason to be drafting Edelmen as a WR3.  He doesn't play outside, so his value is directly tied to Welker.  The best case scenario is that Welker goes on PUP and misses 6 weeks, giving Edelman value for that time period.  If you're set on drafting Welker I could see grabbing Edelman to be safe, but that's about it.

WR3 Thoughts: There's some interesting talent here.  Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Braylon Edwards could all provide WR1 value if everything broke right, but there's a lot of downside to them as well, which is why they're mostly being drafted as WR3s.  Wallace, Meachem, Aromashodu, and Bryant are all young WRs that should have a solid opportunity to produce for your fantasy teams this year, and I like them as WR3s as well.  These are the guys I'd focus on as I don't see the upside of the other guys at all to be worth taking them here.

2010 WR2 Value Analysis

13) Anquan Boldin

ADP: 35.2 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Boldin put in his usual good season last year, eclipsing 1,000 yards, but disappointing with only 4 TDs.  Kurt Warner took a step back last season, mostly due to a bum hip, and Boldin's numbers suffered as a result.  Boldin was traded to the Ravens in the offseason, so he now becomes the unquestioned #1 WR on his team for the first time since Fitzgerald arrived in Arizona.  His receptions, yards, and TDs should increase over last season, and he has a chance to post his best season since 2005.  The question with Boldin is always his health, as he's only played 16 games twice in his career, but his new upside as the #1 option on an up-and-coming offense balances out that risk, and he's a solid low-end WR1.

14) Steve Smith (NYG)

ADP: 38.7 (4th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued


Overview: Steve Smith absolutely exploded out of the gates in 2009, surprising many across the NFL.  The Giants lacked a legit WR heading into the season with the suspension and imprisonment of Plaxico Burress and the retirement of Amani Toomer, but Smith stepped up into the go-to receiver role.  Eli will look to continue the improvement he showed last season, and the return to health of Jacobs and Bradshaw should give them some good offensive punch.  Why overrated you say?  Steve Smith, while he did make an abnormal amount of downfield plays last season, is mostly a possession receiver.  This is how he was profiled coming out of USC, and nothing has changed.  This is best represented by his 2nd half YPC average of 10.3 as he started to settle into that role as the season moved along.  I don't doubt Smith's ability to turn in a fine 2010 season, but I think his yardage total will drop, and he's not a big receiver, so he's not a threat for double digit TDs.  If I'm taking a WR1 or one of the first WR2s, I want a receiver that can consistently make big plays and have double digit TD possibility.  Smith simply doesn't provide that, so it'll be hard for him to live up to his draft slot.

15) Steve Smith (CAR)
ADP: 40.2 (4th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued

Overview: Delhomme imploded again, and Carolina shifted him into a pure game manager, so Steve Smith's fantasy value suffered accordingly.  It was no coincidence that once Matt Moore took over, Smith exploded during the final month for 378 yards and 3 TDs.  Matt Moore will start in 2010, and I expect him to play well and hold the job for the 2010 season.  Carolina's line is solid, and their rushing attack is potent.  Smith did break his arm, but he's expected back right before the season starts, and I don't forsee this being a problem for his 2010 season.  I fully expect a bounceback season from Steve Smith, and I would have no problem drafting him in the 3rd round among the WR1s.  He's undervalued at his current ADP and would be a steal in the 4th round.

16) Michael Crabtree

ADP: 43.1 (4th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Crabtree annoyed those who drafted him by living up to his promise and sitting out for 6 weeks of the regular season in a ridiculous holdout.  Once he hit the field, however, it was like he was playing since week 1.  He didn't post a 100 yard game, and he only had 2 TDs, but he was consistent on a weekly basis, and he would have been real close to 1,000 yards had he played the entire season.  Crabtree runs good routes, is good after the catch, and knows how to get open.  He's not a burner, so he'll need to be able to get open deep to join the truly elite.  I expect improvement in his 2nd season, especially in the TD department, but he's not a WR1.  Don't overdraft based on his hype, and Alex Smith hurts his upside.  He's a solid WR2, but I'd rather draft Bowe and Nicks.

17) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 45.4 (4th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Ochocinco started off the season on fire and had a big first half, but when Palmer fell apart in the 2nd half, Ochocinco went down with him.  It was clear that Ochocinco has plenty left in the tank from a skill set point of view.  Cincy added Antonio Bryant opposite him to stretch the field, and they also added Shipley and Gresham to improve their threats over the middle, so defenses won't be able to key in on Chad this season like they were able to last year.  His value is directly tied to Palmer's ability to bounceback from whatever caused his arm to go limp last season, so if you believe in Palmer, draft Ochocinco, and he could provide borderline WR1 value.  If you don't, then stay away.  I think he's a solid value as a WR2.

18) Mike Sims-Walker

ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Sims-Walker went from no name to big name in the first half of the season last year.  Jacksonville lacked any semblance of a #1 WR, but when healthy, Sims-Walker provided exactly that.  Unfortunately a combination of nagging injuries, something Sims-Walker is no stranger to, and mediocre play from David Garrard caused him to sink in the 2nd half as both his receptions and his YPC dropped sharply in the 2nd half.  Sims-Walker has ideal size and speed to be a #1 WR, but his injury history and QB situation will continue to hold him back.  If he's healthy for 16 games, he has the ability to slightly exceed his ADP, but his downside is large.  I think he's being over-drafted a bit this season.

19) Hakeem Nicks

ADP: 53.4 (5th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Now here's a young WR I really like.  Nicks started slow thanks to an injury, but he was unfairly stuck behind Mario Manningham during the middle of the season prior to finally overtaking him towards the end of the season.  Nicks is a big, physical WR who can get deep when he wants and boasts the complete package.  He just needs to continue to concentrate and not drop catchable passes.  The coaching staff is again making Nicks battle Manningham for the starting role, but as long as his head is in the game, Nicks will easily win the competition.  As I mentioned above, Steve Smith profiles much better as a possession WR, so I expect Nicks to emerge in the Plaxico Burress role.  Smith will catch more passes, but Nicks will provide bigger plays, rack up more yards, and score more.  Nicks is a great WR2 in the 5th round, and I'd take him as high as the late 4th round.

20) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 54.3 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Bowe was a monster bust in 2009.  He dropped too many passes, KC's offensive line was a mess for the first half of the season, and Matt Cassel was completely lost all season long.  To add insult to injury, he managed to rack up a 4 game suspension, which amusingly did his owners more good than bad as you couldn't start him anymore and watch him do nothing.  KC's offensive line should improve in 2010, but it's hard to say how much.  Charlie Weis was hired to tutor Matt Cassel, so he's being coached by a good offensive mind and QB coach.  I expect improvement, but I have no idea how much.  Chris Chambers looked revived last season and will be a solid option across the field from him.  Jamaal Charles provides an explosive option at RB, so there's more talent to help him out than last season.  There's no question that Bowe has the talent to be a fantasy WR1, but his QB situation and concentration remain concerns.  I saved the best news for last, and that's his improved dedication this offseason.  He attended Larry Fitzgerald's camp, and that camp did wonders for Sidney Rice last season.  Considering the camp is obviously optional, it shows that Bowe might be taking the necessary steps to capitalize on his immense talent.  Weis is also excellent with WRs, and coach Haley has been open with his praise.  Things are looking up for Bowe.

21) Percy Harvin
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Percy Harvin won Offensive ROY for 2009, and there's no question he deserved it.  Harvin is explosive, tough as nails, and versatile.  He lined up all over the field and made plays no matter where he was.  There are three problems with Harvin in 2010.  First of all, like I mentioned with Sidney Rice, Favre is due to regress, so receiving numbers and TDs will be down across the board.  Secondly, Harvin is still battling migraines, and given the unpredictable nature of them, he might miss another game or three this season.  Thirdly, and probably least important, Harvin does play the slot as Berrian lines up outside, so he's not on the field as much as the WRs being drafted around him.  Harvin will produce as long as he's healthy and getting  his touches, but drafting him as a WR2 is reaching given the aforementioned above reasons.  If everything breaks right, Harvin will produce like a WR2, but drafting him with those expectations is a bit much.

Update: With Rice out at least 8 weeks, Harvin will be the focal point of the passing attack.  He has big upside and is an excellent WR2.

22) Pierre Garcon

ADP: 60.5 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Garcon came out of nowhere in 2009 to be a solid fantasy contributor at the WR3 position.  I love his skills and believe he has the speed and after-the-catch ability to stay on the outside and line up opposite Reggie Wayne in 2010.  He's certainly more talented than Austin Collie, and he definitely profiles as the better outside receiver.  Anthony Gonzalez's return complicates things a little bit, but it'd be impossible for the Colts to ignore Garcon's contributions last season.  The problem is that while the Colts are an explosive, pass-first offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed here.  He's being drafted as if he's the starter, and if that holds up, he should provide borderline WR2 value.  Keep a close eye on how the Colts handle their WR situation this preseason.

23) Hines Ward
ADP: 63.7 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Hines Ward continually defies logic and produces solid fantasy value each season.  Ward posted the 2nd best yardage total of his career in 2009, but there's a lot working against him in 2010.  First of all, Big Ben is suspended for 4 games, so the passing game will probably be erratic.  Secondly, Ward will be 34 when the season starts, and I personally shy away from WRs before they start hitting the wall at the end of their career.  The good news is as the possession receiver of the team, he'll likely be relied upon by whomever starts in weeks 1-4 for the Steelers.  Keep an eye on him in the preseason to ensure he's healthy and recovered from last season's knee injury, but I'd much rather have Ward as a solid WR3 than a WR2 this season.

24) Jeremy Maclin

ADP: 65.8 (6th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Maclin was a wildly productive receiver at Missouri during his college days, but he mostly played in the slot.  That's what made his relatively smooth transition to an outside NFL WR so impressive.  Maclin isn't a pure burner like teammate DeSean Jackson, but he's a good route runner, quick, and knows how to get open, so he's an excellent complement on the other side of the field.  I'm high on Kevin Kolb this season, so the transition from McNabb to Kolb should not be a concern, and their muddled backfield will mean Philly will stay a pass-first team.  I like Maclin's prospects for 2010, and I think he has a very good chance to meet or slightly exceed his draft status this season.

WR2 Thoughts: My WR2 philosophy is simple.  If I'm picking one in the 3rd or 4th rounds, they must possess the talent and situation to perform like a WR1.  If I'm picking one in the 5th or 6th round, I try to limit my downside and go for the safer option, but not one that doesn't lack upside.  Steve Smith from the Panthers, Hakeem Nicks, and Dwayne Bowe present the biggest upside here, while Boldin, Crabtree (despite his youth), and Ochocino present safer options.  I also like Maclin's prospects this season if you're gonna wait around for one.