The Carolina Panthers have suspended WR Steve Smith for 2 games following his fight with teammate Ken Lucas.
Fantasy Impact: I originally had Steve Smith in my top 5 receivers for this year, but it would take some serious production in the 14 games he plays to accomplish that. I view him more as a top WR2, and maybe a low WR1 now. It's going to be too hard for him to overcome missing 2 games to be a top WR1, but I feel that he will give you WR1 production when he plays. Either way you view him (WR1/WR2), you're going to need a WR4 that you can comfortably use the first two weeks if you draft Smith.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Position ADP Analysis Done, Plus Kicker/Defense Thoughts
Hey All
So I finalized my position analysis last night, concluding with the TE position. I don't feel the need to analyze the kickers and defenses. So many of the quality options at those positions coming off the waiver wire each season, half of the top 12 options at the positions get dumped early on. There's some simply guidelines I follow about both positions.
Kicker: I never, ever take one before the last round. I look for offenses that are set up to have nice seasons, and target one of those kickers. I also generally stay away from teams that play in bad weather during the final month and it definitely impacts a kicker's ability to post fantasy points. Domed kickers are great as well thanks to the environment in which they kick.
Defense: I generally don't take one before the second to last round. It's worth noting who played strong last season, and then analyzing the key additions/subtractions. Another quality way to play it is with weekly matchups. Now weekly defenses are not worth a waiver selection, so never burn your waiver position on a defense. If too many people in your league are doing weekly defensive matchups, then that's another negative as you have to be very quick to grab the best option for the following week. At that point, it's easier to pick a defense that has a favorable schedule and run with them.
The regular season is still over a month away, so there should be some ADP juggling yet to be done, but the ADP snapshot right now will hold pretty steady in the overall sense. The players right now that might move the most are the players of questionable health such as Marvin Harrison and Antonio Gates. I expect Harrison to move up if he proves he's healthy, and I'd expect Gates to move down if he starts becoming more questionable to start the season. I do also expect Jeremy Shockey to move up a bit as more mock drafts take his trade into account. I will update the blog with injuries and acquisitions that will impact players, and if I change my mind on a player, I'll edit the existing entry and then post that there was an edit.
In terms of making this ADP analysis work for myself, I also believe in the tiering system. If you're unfamiliar with tiering, it's grouping players at each position that you feel will perform similar to each other for the upcoming season. That way you can determine where you feel the performances dropoffs are for each position, and then draft accordingly as you build your team. Say you're deciding between a QB and a RB in a particular round. If there is only one QB in his tier left, but there are 5 RBs left in their tier, it would make more sense to choose the QB as you can likely pick up a similar RB the next round. By taking the ADP analysis and applying your own personal preferences, you can group these players together and have a cheat sheet to go off of for your draft.
I'll definitely have some people that will disagree with my reasoning on various players, and that's what makes fantasy football fun. It's never predictable, and nobody is ever right all the time. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes for the following seasons if you see patterns developing. Hopefully my "draft guide" helps you out in some fashion for the upcoming season!
So I finalized my position analysis last night, concluding with the TE position. I don't feel the need to analyze the kickers and defenses. So many of the quality options at those positions coming off the waiver wire each season, half of the top 12 options at the positions get dumped early on. There's some simply guidelines I follow about both positions.
Kicker: I never, ever take one before the last round. I look for offenses that are set up to have nice seasons, and target one of those kickers. I also generally stay away from teams that play in bad weather during the final month and it definitely impacts a kicker's ability to post fantasy points. Domed kickers are great as well thanks to the environment in which they kick.
Defense: I generally don't take one before the second to last round. It's worth noting who played strong last season, and then analyzing the key additions/subtractions. Another quality way to play it is with weekly matchups. Now weekly defenses are not worth a waiver selection, so never burn your waiver position on a defense. If too many people in your league are doing weekly defensive matchups, then that's another negative as you have to be very quick to grab the best option for the following week. At that point, it's easier to pick a defense that has a favorable schedule and run with them.
The regular season is still over a month away, so there should be some ADP juggling yet to be done, but the ADP snapshot right now will hold pretty steady in the overall sense. The players right now that might move the most are the players of questionable health such as Marvin Harrison and Antonio Gates. I expect Harrison to move up if he proves he's healthy, and I'd expect Gates to move down if he starts becoming more questionable to start the season. I do also expect Jeremy Shockey to move up a bit as more mock drafts take his trade into account. I will update the blog with injuries and acquisitions that will impact players, and if I change my mind on a player, I'll edit the existing entry and then post that there was an edit.
In terms of making this ADP analysis work for myself, I also believe in the tiering system. If you're unfamiliar with tiering, it's grouping players at each position that you feel will perform similar to each other for the upcoming season. That way you can determine where you feel the performances dropoffs are for each position, and then draft accordingly as you build your team. Say you're deciding between a QB and a RB in a particular round. If there is only one QB in his tier left, but there are 5 RBs left in their tier, it would make more sense to choose the QB as you can likely pick up a similar RB the next round. By taking the ADP analysis and applying your own personal preferences, you can group these players together and have a cheat sheet to go off of for your draft.
I'll definitely have some people that will disagree with my reasoning on various players, and that's what makes fantasy football fun. It's never predictable, and nobody is ever right all the time. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes for the following seasons if you see patterns developing. Hopefully my "draft guide" helps you out in some fashion for the upcoming season!
Monday, July 28, 2008
TE Value Analysis
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Jason Witten exploded on the scene last season, posting an incredible 1,145 yards with 7 TDs. The Cowboys fully recognized that Witten was the 2nd best receiver on the team behind Owens and properly utilized him all over the field. While I certainly don't expect Witten to improve or match his incredible yardage total from last season, the Cowboys offense remains in tact, and Witten is a virtual certainty to remain highly productive. With Gates' health a complete uncertainty, there's no safer bet for a top 3 TE production than Witten. If you're into drafting TEs early, Witten is worth grabbing.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Antonio Gates' foot surgery, Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Antonio Gates was his usual dominant self in the first half of 2007, but tailed off in the 2nd half prior to a serious foot injury that he suffered in the playoffs. Surgery ensued, and it's uncertain if Gates will be ready for the season. He's a candidate for the PUP list. As the uncertainty continues on into the preseason, I expect his ADP to drop accordingly, and there's no way you should be paying top value for a player questionable for the start of the regular season. Avoid him at this price, but continue to monitor his ADP trend and the reports of his health once the preseason starts to get going.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Kellen Winslow, for the 2nd straight season, well outperformed his ADP. He finished 3rd behind Witten and Gonzalez in TE receiving yardage, and he also posted 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards blew up, helping keep defensive attention off the rising star. I would guess Winslow, out of all the Cleveland skill positions, stands to lose the least with the uncertainty I have about the Cleveland offense. If Anderson struggles and Quinn takes over, the TE will be the safety valve for both guys as this happens. Winslow's big plays might decrease, but he'll continue to rack up yardage and score several TDs, which is enough to keep him towards the top of the TEs. And that's the worst case scenario. Winslow's knee no longer seems to be a short term concern, but he carries a bit more risk than Witten.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Tony Gonzalez turned in the best season of his career last year. While he didn't post a career high in catches, yardage, or TDs, he came awfully close in catches and yardage, all the while playing for one of the worst offenses of his career. The emergence of Dwayne Bowe should help open things up over the middle for Gonzalez, but the offense should be just about as bad this season, and expecting Gonzalez to repeat would be foolish. Now it's obvious from his ADP that drafters are indeed not expecting such a repeat, but while he's a safe choice, the upside isn't there, and I believe there are better values to be had later in the draft.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: The absence of Marvin Harrison did wonders for Clark's fantasy value as he immediately became Manning's 2nd best receiving option. The 616 yards certainly isn't awe-inpsiring, but the 11 TDs certainly were. Like the math games we've played before on this value analysis, I again ask which value doesn't belong? Complicate that with Harrison's likely return to the offense, and Clark has all the things working against him to be a slight fantasy bust. Clark should still post a solid season, but we're dealing with an injury prone TE who had a fluky year of TDs. There are better values later on.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Chris Cooley offered excellent value last season to his fantasy owners. Despite being drafted as a fringe starter, Cooley put together a 4 game scoring streak in weeks 2-6, and then in the 2nd half, he posted higher yardage totals to make up for scoring slightly less frequently. The offense around him now changes as the WCO will be installed by new coach Zorn, and the Skins added talent to the WR position via the draft. Zorn came from Seattle, and Seattle used their TEs consistently in the offense, but they never had a talent like Cooley. Cooley does not possess great speed from the TE position, but he gets open and has solid hands. Cooley is a safe pick who should repeat the consistent average he hovers around every season of 750 yards and 7 TDs. There's no upside here, but there's not much downside either.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey posted his usual solid receiving totals last season, but owners always seem to be expecting more. I believe part of the reason he hasn't delivered more is because his style of super-aggressive style of play has lead to nagging injuries, and another reason is because the Giants have focused quite a bit on their running game with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs & Co. since Shockey has been there. Another reason is the inconsistency the Eli Manning has shown in his career. All that is about to change. Shockey's new offense will utilize him more as a receiving threat, and that could cut back on injuries as he won't have to block as often. The Saints are about as pass happy as any offense in the NFL, so he'll also be running more routes based on that fact as well. Finally, Drew Brees is a much better QB than Eli Manning is, which should lead to more consistency. All things are looking up for Shockey, and while I expect his ADP to rise some after the trade, he's recommended as a top 5 selection. Just beware that his injury risk isn't a thing of the past, but I believe the upside is worth it. Just make sure to add a solid TE2 in the likelihood that Shockey misses a couple games.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Vernon Davis still has the most impressive physical skills of anyone not named Antonio Gates, but he's yet to be used properly. He's been the vicitim of poor passing attacks his first two seasons, but that will change with Martz in town. The problem is that Martz has never used a TE as a primary receiving option before, and considering his offense is based off of quick WRs running good routes, Davis certainly doesn't qualify under either of those classifications. Davis is more of the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson athlete type that Martz never fully understood how to use in Detroit. His skills and the improved passing attack offer upside, but the questionable fit into the new scheme offers downside. I think he's a very interesting risk in the middle rounds of the draft.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Todd Heap had a disasterous season in 2007, playing in only 6 games while battling various leg injuries. He comes back 100% in 2008, and with an offensive coordinator who knows how to use the TE. The only thing holding Heap back will be the play of his QB as both Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are unproven youngsters. Smith would probably be preferred. Mason and Clayton offer two solid WRs to keep attention away. The offensive situation and his nagging injuries offer some downside, but at this price, he's worth investing in.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Miller didn't rack up much yardage, but he posted 7 TDs as another beneficiary of the inability for Pittsburgh to run the ball near the goal line. Like I talked about before with Pittsburgh's offense, they will likely throw for less TDs, but I expect Miller to maintain his TD pace. He's a great red zone target, and if Pittsburgh can re-establish the running game near the goal line, expect a couple playaction TD catches from Miller as well. I also expect Miller to continue being utilized a bit more in the passing game, and he should increase his yardage total somewhat as a result. Given the expected improvement, and the fact there's not a lot of downside, I think Miller is a good value this season.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Despite the prolific Patriots passing attack, Watson's yardage fell off a cliff. He had a monster game against Dallas, posting 107 yards and 2 TDs, but he never topped 49 yards in any other game. He did score 6 TDs, but only one after the week 5 explosion. Watson remains supremely talented, but unfortunately that talent doesn't include his hands. Thanks to his inconsistent targets, he can't afford to drop passes, but he does anyways. After 4 years, sudden improvement seems unlikely. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a weekly option.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Crumpler is the new starting TE for the Titans. Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins.
Overview: Alge Crumpler, Michael Vick's favorite target, missed him more than anyone else on the team. He was very consistent from 2004 - 2006, posting 775+ yards with an average of 6 TDs. Last season a diminshed role in the offense combined with a knee injury that spilled over into the regular season sapped him of his ability to produce. He now moves to another offense anchored around the running game and a running QB, so he's a perfect fit. I expect a bounce back season from Crumpler, and he's providing a nice value as the last starting TE taken off the board.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's pending suspension.
Overview: Tony Scheffler missed the first 4 games of the 2007 season with an injury, but when he returned, he showed off his talent. He was only held under 30 yards twice, and he posted 5 TDs. Scheffler dealt with another foot injury this offseason, but he apperars 100%. Scheffler has a great chemistry with Jay Cutler, and while having Brandon Marshall would keep attention off of him, I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant the defense's attention anyways. He should be Cutler's secondary target with Marshall there, and he could share primary target duties when Marshall misses time. He's a great value this late.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: Owen Daniels, along with Andre Johnson, were prime beneficiaries of the greatly improved Houston Texans passing attack. Between Schaub and Rosenfels, there were plenty of targets for Daniels. The only downside were the 3 TDs, but that was a fluky result for a TE that posted over 700 yards. Simply put, there's absolutely no reason Daniels should be taken as a TE2. He's way undervalued and should prove to be the best bargain of all TEs this season.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Olsen should be the Bears' new starting TE, new starting RB Matt Forte, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Greg Olsen flashed some big time potential in his first season, but like all rookie TEs, he had a lot to learn and was inconsistent. He had a 4 game stretch of 4+ catches and 48+ yards with 2 TDs, but was very inconsistent after that. The Chicago Bears offense remains a train wreck on paper, but Olsen should be one of the most targeted receivers on the team. His blocking needs work, so he won't be on the field as much as most TEs, so his TE2 price tag is right. He's a great guy to gamble on in case he breaks through this season.
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Jason Witten exploded on the scene last season, posting an incredible 1,145 yards with 7 TDs. The Cowboys fully recognized that Witten was the 2nd best receiver on the team behind Owens and properly utilized him all over the field. While I certainly don't expect Witten to improve or match his incredible yardage total from last season, the Cowboys offense remains in tact, and Witten is a virtual certainty to remain highly productive. With Gates' health a complete uncertainty, there's no safer bet for a top 3 TE production than Witten. If you're into drafting TEs early, Witten is worth grabbing.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Antonio Gates' foot surgery, Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Antonio Gates was his usual dominant self in the first half of 2007, but tailed off in the 2nd half prior to a serious foot injury that he suffered in the playoffs. Surgery ensued, and it's uncertain if Gates will be ready for the season. He's a candidate for the PUP list. As the uncertainty continues on into the preseason, I expect his ADP to drop accordingly, and there's no way you should be paying top value for a player questionable for the start of the regular season. Avoid him at this price, but continue to monitor his ADP trend and the reports of his health once the preseason starts to get going.
3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Kellen Winslow, for the 2nd straight season, well outperformed his ADP. He finished 3rd behind Witten and Gonzalez in TE receiving yardage, and he also posted 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards blew up, helping keep defensive attention off the rising star. I would guess Winslow, out of all the Cleveland skill positions, stands to lose the least with the uncertainty I have about the Cleveland offense. If Anderson struggles and Quinn takes over, the TE will be the safety valve for both guys as this happens. Winslow's big plays might decrease, but he'll continue to rack up yardage and score several TDs, which is enough to keep him towards the top of the TEs. And that's the worst case scenario. Winslow's knee no longer seems to be a short term concern, but he carries a bit more risk than Witten.
4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Tony Gonzalez turned in the best season of his career last year. While he didn't post a career high in catches, yardage, or TDs, he came awfully close in catches and yardage, all the while playing for one of the worst offenses of his career. The emergence of Dwayne Bowe should help open things up over the middle for Gonzalez, but the offense should be just about as bad this season, and expecting Gonzalez to repeat would be foolish. Now it's obvious from his ADP that drafters are indeed not expecting such a repeat, but while he's a safe choice, the upside isn't there, and I believe there are better values to be had later in the draft.
5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: The absence of Marvin Harrison did wonders for Clark's fantasy value as he immediately became Manning's 2nd best receiving option. The 616 yards certainly isn't awe-inpsiring, but the 11 TDs certainly were. Like the math games we've played before on this value analysis, I again ask which value doesn't belong? Complicate that with Harrison's likely return to the offense, and Clark has all the things working against him to be a slight fantasy bust. Clark should still post a solid season, but we're dealing with an injury prone TE who had a fluky year of TDs. There are better values later on.
6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Chris Cooley offered excellent value last season to his fantasy owners. Despite being drafted as a fringe starter, Cooley put together a 4 game scoring streak in weeks 2-6, and then in the 2nd half, he posted higher yardage totals to make up for scoring slightly less frequently. The offense around him now changes as the WCO will be installed by new coach Zorn, and the Skins added talent to the WR position via the draft. Zorn came from Seattle, and Seattle used their TEs consistently in the offense, but they never had a talent like Cooley. Cooley does not possess great speed from the TE position, but he gets open and has solid hands. Cooley is a safe pick who should repeat the consistent average he hovers around every season of 750 yards and 7 TDs. There's no upside here, but there's not much downside either.
7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.
Overview: Shockey posted his usual solid receiving totals last season, but owners always seem to be expecting more. I believe part of the reason he hasn't delivered more is because his style of super-aggressive style of play has lead to nagging injuries, and another reason is because the Giants have focused quite a bit on their running game with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs & Co. since Shockey has been there. Another reason is the inconsistency the Eli Manning has shown in his career. All that is about to change. Shockey's new offense will utilize him more as a receiving threat, and that could cut back on injuries as he won't have to block as often. The Saints are about as pass happy as any offense in the NFL, so he'll also be running more routes based on that fact as well. Finally, Drew Brees is a much better QB than Eli Manning is, which should lead to more consistency. All things are looking up for Shockey, and while I expect his ADP to rise some after the trade, he's recommended as a top 5 selection. Just beware that his injury risk isn't a thing of the past, but I believe the upside is worth it. Just make sure to add a solid TE2 in the likelihood that Shockey misses a couple games.
8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Vernon Davis still has the most impressive physical skills of anyone not named Antonio Gates, but he's yet to be used properly. He's been the vicitim of poor passing attacks his first two seasons, but that will change with Martz in town. The problem is that Martz has never used a TE as a primary receiving option before, and considering his offense is based off of quick WRs running good routes, Davis certainly doesn't qualify under either of those classifications. Davis is more of the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson athlete type that Martz never fully understood how to use in Detroit. His skills and the improved passing attack offer upside, but the questionable fit into the new scheme offers downside. I think he's a very interesting risk in the middle rounds of the draft.
9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Todd Heap had a disasterous season in 2007, playing in only 6 games while battling various leg injuries. He comes back 100% in 2008, and with an offensive coordinator who knows how to use the TE. The only thing holding Heap back will be the play of his QB as both Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are unproven youngsters. Smith would probably be preferred. Mason and Clayton offer two solid WRs to keep attention away. The offensive situation and his nagging injuries offer some downside, but at this price, he's worth investing in.
10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Miller didn't rack up much yardage, but he posted 7 TDs as another beneficiary of the inability for Pittsburgh to run the ball near the goal line. Like I talked about before with Pittsburgh's offense, they will likely throw for less TDs, but I expect Miller to maintain his TD pace. He's a great red zone target, and if Pittsburgh can re-establish the running game near the goal line, expect a couple playaction TD catches from Miller as well. I also expect Miller to continue being utilized a bit more in the passing game, and he should increase his yardage total somewhat as a result. Given the expected improvement, and the fact there's not a lot of downside, I think Miller is a good value this season.
11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Despite the prolific Patriots passing attack, Watson's yardage fell off a cliff. He had a monster game against Dallas, posting 107 yards and 2 TDs, but he never topped 49 yards in any other game. He did score 6 TDs, but only one after the week 5 explosion. Watson remains supremely talented, but unfortunately that talent doesn't include his hands. Thanks to his inconsistent targets, he can't afford to drop passes, but he does anyways. After 4 years, sudden improvement seems unlikely. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a weekly option.
12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Crumpler is the new starting TE for the Titans. Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins.
Overview: Alge Crumpler, Michael Vick's favorite target, missed him more than anyone else on the team. He was very consistent from 2004 - 2006, posting 775+ yards with an average of 6 TDs. Last season a diminshed role in the offense combined with a knee injury that spilled over into the regular season sapped him of his ability to produce. He now moves to another offense anchored around the running game and a running QB, so he's a perfect fit. I expect a bounce back season from Crumpler, and he's providing a nice value as the last starting TE taken off the board.
Sleepers:
13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's pending suspension.
Overview: Tony Scheffler missed the first 4 games of the 2007 season with an injury, but when he returned, he showed off his talent. He was only held under 30 yards twice, and he posted 5 TDs. Scheffler dealt with another foot injury this offseason, but he apperars 100%. Scheffler has a great chemistry with Jay Cutler, and while having Brandon Marshall would keep attention off of him, I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant the defense's attention anyways. He should be Cutler's secondary target with Marshall there, and he could share primary target duties when Marshall misses time. He's a great value this late.
14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: Owen Daniels, along with Andre Johnson, were prime beneficiaries of the greatly improved Houston Texans passing attack. Between Schaub and Rosenfels, there were plenty of targets for Daniels. The only downside were the 3 TDs, but that was a fluky result for a TE that posted over 700 yards. Simply put, there's absolutely no reason Daniels should be taken as a TE2. He's way undervalued and should prove to be the best bargain of all TEs this season.
16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Olsen should be the Bears' new starting TE, new starting RB Matt Forte, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Greg Olsen flashed some big time potential in his first season, but like all rookie TEs, he had a lot to learn and was inconsistent. He had a 4 game stretch of 4+ catches and 48+ yards with 2 TDs, but was very inconsistent after that. The Chicago Bears offense remains a train wreck on paper, but Olsen should be one of the most targeted receivers on the team. His blocking needs work, so he won't be on the field as much as most TEs, so his TE2 price tag is right. He's a great guy to gamble on in case he breaks through this season.
WR4 (37 - 48) Value Analysis
37) Derrick Mason
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Derrick Mason was a revelation last season, posting 103 catches and going over 1000 yards with 5 TDs. He was an excellent 3rd WR thanks to the inability for the Ravens to stretch the field, catching underneath routes all season long. Now 34 years old with long-time buddy Steve McNair gone, and an inconsistent QB to take over (either Troy Smith or Joe Flacco), you can expect him to continue declining as he was starting to do in 2006. There's no way he catches that many passes a game, especially with targets likely to be spread out to the now healthy Todd Heap, and also expect a rebound from Mark Clayton. You can aim much higher with your 4th WR, and you certainly don't want him starting every week.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bernard Berrian is the new starting WR for the Vikings, new starting RB Adrian Peterson.
Overview: Bernard Berrian performed about as expected with the Bears last season. He would have been a breakthrough candidate on most other teams, but the 2006 2nd half decline of Rex Grossman appropriately killed too much optimism. He came close to 1000 yards and tossed in 5 TDs, making him a solid value for where he was drafted last season. He now moves to another passing offense that projects to be below average, but is powered by a much better running game. Berrian should post some big games with a handful of big plays, but given there's another talented young WR across from him in Sydney Rice, he's not going to be given enough targets to be a weekly option. Don't rely on him each week.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Reggie Williams had an odd 2007 season. 629 yards, 10 TDs. Which one doesn't belong? Despite having a reputation of being slow, Williams converted numerous long catches and long touchdowns, showing some of the talent he was supposed to have. However, with Jerry Porter now in town and the run-first philosophy sure to stay, Williams will see even less targets. There's no way he matches his 2007 TD total, his yardage probably won't change much, and that makes him a poor selection.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Not many players turn in a career year at age 34, but Bobby Engram did just that last season. With Branch going down and Hackett often injured, Engram became Hasselbeck's top weekly target. With Hackett gone and Branch likely headed for at least the PUP list, plus the Seahawks not upgrading the WR group, look for Engram to post numbers in the same ballpark this season. Think 2007 Derek Mason with lots of catches, solid yardage, few big plays, and a handful of TDs. You won't find too many #1 WRs available this late, and while Engram is hardly a sexy selection with little upside, he should post reliable WR3 numbers all season long.
Update: Engram will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured shoulder. Best case figures to be him returning in week 4, at which point he should resume being borderline WR3 material.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Jamarcus Russell, drafted RB Darren McFadden, signed WR Javon Walker.
Overview: Ronald Curry was another popular sleeper last season, and he turned in a couple great weeks, but Oakland's passing attack remained a mess, and Curry suffered as a result. Curry has underrated talent, and he still possesses the ability to be a fantasy starter with WR2 upside. He's now familiar with the WR position at the NFL level after playing QB in college, but Jamarcus Russell's growing pains will limit what Curry is able to do. He's an interesting WR4 with upside, but his consistency will be tied with the maturation Russell shows in 2008.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donte Stallworth is the new starting WR for the Browns.
Overview: Donte Stallworth was somewhat of a bust in New England as Wes Welker stole the season some thought he'd be able to turn in opposite Randy Moss, although those familiar with Stallworth are well aware that he never meets expectations. With him now being drafted as a WR4, it seems suited to his upside. Like I've mentioned with Cleveland's offense before, I'm a bit wary on what we'll see from them this season, but Stallworth is again lined up opposite a stud WR, and Winslow is an elite TE as well. Stallworth won't see enough targets to start every week, nor will he remain healthy for 16 games, but there's backup ability here and he can be used against the right defenses. He's a good fit for Anderosn's downfield tendencies, and he's also a decent value here.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Darrell Jackson is the new starting WR for the Broncos.
Overview: Darrell Jackson was predictably a bust in San Francisco after they traded for him to become their #1 WR. Their passing game was atrocious, and Jackson isn't talented enough nor was he ever healthy enough to perservere. He now moves to Denver, and with Brandon Marshall's status in doubt, he could find himself as the #1 WR again, this time on a much better passing offense. Jackson is a complete wild card this season. During the games Marshall misses, if Jackson is healthy, he could surge to WR2 value. On the games Marshall plays, Jackson's upside is probably a WR3, and there's also a chance he could battle injuries again and be completely ineffective. Preseason should shed some light on his situation. He's a low risk as a WR4 with a potentially solid reward, so I view him as a solid value here.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: D.J. Hackett is the new starting WR for the Panthers, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: D.J. Hackett, another popular sleeper last season, actually lived up to his sleeper status when on the field. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that wasn't nearly often enough, playing in only 6 games due to ankle problems. Hackett now finds himself on a different offense with a run-first philosphy and competition for his starting job from Muhsin Muhammad. Hackett is unquestionably a better WR than Muhammad at this point in their career, but given the Panthers are a power running team, Muhammad's blocking is invaluable. This leads me to believe that Hackett won't be a true starter opposite Steve Smith, and thus he's being overvalued as a potential starter here. This could change, so keep an eye on preseason, but as of now he's not recommended as a potential platoon WR.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Sydney Rice flashed some great potential in his rookie season even though his numbers didn't reflect that. He'd have stud potential in a better offense, but he's playing on a run-first offense across from a highly priced WR acquisition in Berrian with an inconsistent QB in Jackson. This adds up to some wasted potential, but the upside exists, and he could be used in the right matchups. Peterson and the running game will command defenses to cram the box, and defenses will fear Berrian's speed, so Rice is set up in a position to make some noise. He's a solid 4th WR.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Nate Burleson exploded onto the scene as as 2nd year WR with 1006 yards and 9 TDs opposite Randy Moss in Minnesota, but he's been a bust since then. Horribly inconsistent play has marred his career thus far, but with the lack of quality alternatives in Seattle, Burleson will start again, alongside Bobby Engram. Seattle will still throw the ball plenty, and those targets have to go somewhere, so why not Burleson? He has much to prove, but he's an interesting pick as a starting WR in a solid passing attack this late in the draft. There's a chance he could lose his starting spot after the season gets started, but there's decent value to be had here if he keeps it.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Jerry Porter is the new starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Jerry Porter has spent years teasing fantasy owners as the talent that just never shined through. He made a lot of noise in his 3rd season playing the slot receiver role with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in the prolific Oakland passing attack of 2002, and in 2004 and 2005 he flirted with 1000 yard seasons, but he's just never become the receiver than numerous scouts thought he would. Porter turned in a comendable season in Oakland last season despite constantly being in the dog house, and now he's got a fresh start as the #1 WR for the Jaguars. He is playing for a run-first offense that won't pass a whole lot, so he's not going to rack up the receptions like many #1 WRs do, but he's the most talented WR for the Jags. Given their ability to get the ball downfield to the sluggish Reggie Williams, I expect Porter to turn in a WR3 season at worst, assuming he can get over the hamstring surgery that has him currently sidelined. Don't go drafting him as a WR3 and expecting immediately production, but he makes a great WR4 to stash for when he gets acclimated to his new team.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: There was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. Between the injuries that Fitzgerald and Boldin have suffered over the past 3 seasons, Johnson was given a handful of starts each year, was often picked up during those times, but then just never seemed to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Johnson is a big WR at 6'3, 216, so he's not the ideal fit for Martz's offense, although he was signed to start for the 49ers after Martz joined as the offensive coordinator. Martz will fix the 49ers passing attack, but how much remains to be determined. Johnson will benefit for starting for an offense destined to throw the ball a good amount, so there's some potential here. He's a bit risky as he's never started before, and I don't know if he'll end up being what Mike Martz wants, but the upside and WR4 price make him a solid selection.
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Derrick Mason was a revelation last season, posting 103 catches and going over 1000 yards with 5 TDs. He was an excellent 3rd WR thanks to the inability for the Ravens to stretch the field, catching underneath routes all season long. Now 34 years old with long-time buddy Steve McNair gone, and an inconsistent QB to take over (either Troy Smith or Joe Flacco), you can expect him to continue declining as he was starting to do in 2006. There's no way he catches that many passes a game, especially with targets likely to be spread out to the now healthy Todd Heap, and also expect a rebound from Mark Clayton. You can aim much higher with your 4th WR, and you certainly don't want him starting every week.
38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bernard Berrian is the new starting WR for the Vikings, new starting RB Adrian Peterson.
Overview: Bernard Berrian performed about as expected with the Bears last season. He would have been a breakthrough candidate on most other teams, but the 2006 2nd half decline of Rex Grossman appropriately killed too much optimism. He came close to 1000 yards and tossed in 5 TDs, making him a solid value for where he was drafted last season. He now moves to another passing offense that projects to be below average, but is powered by a much better running game. Berrian should post some big games with a handful of big plays, but given there's another talented young WR across from him in Sydney Rice, he's not going to be given enough targets to be a weekly option. Don't rely on him each week.
39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Reggie Williams had an odd 2007 season. 629 yards, 10 TDs. Which one doesn't belong? Despite having a reputation of being slow, Williams converted numerous long catches and long touchdowns, showing some of the talent he was supposed to have. However, with Jerry Porter now in town and the run-first philosophy sure to stay, Williams will see even less targets. There's no way he matches his 2007 TD total, his yardage probably won't change much, and that makes him a poor selection.
40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Not many players turn in a career year at age 34, but Bobby Engram did just that last season. With Branch going down and Hackett often injured, Engram became Hasselbeck's top weekly target. With Hackett gone and Branch likely headed for at least the PUP list, plus the Seahawks not upgrading the WR group, look for Engram to post numbers in the same ballpark this season. Think 2007 Derek Mason with lots of catches, solid yardage, few big plays, and a handful of TDs. You won't find too many #1 WRs available this late, and while Engram is hardly a sexy selection with little upside, he should post reliable WR3 numbers all season long.
Update: Engram will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured shoulder. Best case figures to be him returning in week 4, at which point he should resume being borderline WR3 material.
41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Jamarcus Russell, drafted RB Darren McFadden, signed WR Javon Walker.
Overview: Ronald Curry was another popular sleeper last season, and he turned in a couple great weeks, but Oakland's passing attack remained a mess, and Curry suffered as a result. Curry has underrated talent, and he still possesses the ability to be a fantasy starter with WR2 upside. He's now familiar with the WR position at the NFL level after playing QB in college, but Jamarcus Russell's growing pains will limit what Curry is able to do. He's an interesting WR4 with upside, but his consistency will be tied with the maturation Russell shows in 2008.
42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donte Stallworth is the new starting WR for the Browns.
Overview: Donte Stallworth was somewhat of a bust in New England as Wes Welker stole the season some thought he'd be able to turn in opposite Randy Moss, although those familiar with Stallworth are well aware that he never meets expectations. With him now being drafted as a WR4, it seems suited to his upside. Like I've mentioned with Cleveland's offense before, I'm a bit wary on what we'll see from them this season, but Stallworth is again lined up opposite a stud WR, and Winslow is an elite TE as well. Stallworth won't see enough targets to start every week, nor will he remain healthy for 16 games, but there's backup ability here and he can be used against the right defenses. He's a good fit for Anderosn's downfield tendencies, and he's also a decent value here.
43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Darrell Jackson is the new starting WR for the Broncos.
Overview: Darrell Jackson was predictably a bust in San Francisco after they traded for him to become their #1 WR. Their passing game was atrocious, and Jackson isn't talented enough nor was he ever healthy enough to perservere. He now moves to Denver, and with Brandon Marshall's status in doubt, he could find himself as the #1 WR again, this time on a much better passing offense. Jackson is a complete wild card this season. During the games Marshall misses, if Jackson is healthy, he could surge to WR2 value. On the games Marshall plays, Jackson's upside is probably a WR3, and there's also a chance he could battle injuries again and be completely ineffective. Preseason should shed some light on his situation. He's a low risk as a WR4 with a potentially solid reward, so I view him as a solid value here.
44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: D.J. Hackett is the new starting WR for the Panthers, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: D.J. Hackett, another popular sleeper last season, actually lived up to his sleeper status when on the field. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that wasn't nearly often enough, playing in only 6 games due to ankle problems. Hackett now finds himself on a different offense with a run-first philosphy and competition for his starting job from Muhsin Muhammad. Hackett is unquestionably a better WR than Muhammad at this point in their career, but given the Panthers are a power running team, Muhammad's blocking is invaluable. This leads me to believe that Hackett won't be a true starter opposite Steve Smith, and thus he's being overvalued as a potential starter here. This could change, so keep an eye on preseason, but as of now he's not recommended as a potential platoon WR.
45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Sydney Rice flashed some great potential in his rookie season even though his numbers didn't reflect that. He'd have stud potential in a better offense, but he's playing on a run-first offense across from a highly priced WR acquisition in Berrian with an inconsistent QB in Jackson. This adds up to some wasted potential, but the upside exists, and he could be used in the right matchups. Peterson and the running game will command defenses to cram the box, and defenses will fear Berrian's speed, so Rice is set up in a position to make some noise. He's a solid 4th WR.
46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.
Overview: Nate Burleson exploded onto the scene as as 2nd year WR with 1006 yards and 9 TDs opposite Randy Moss in Minnesota, but he's been a bust since then. Horribly inconsistent play has marred his career thus far, but with the lack of quality alternatives in Seattle, Burleson will start again, alongside Bobby Engram. Seattle will still throw the ball plenty, and those targets have to go somewhere, so why not Burleson? He has much to prove, but he's an interesting pick as a starting WR in a solid passing attack this late in the draft. There's a chance he could lose his starting spot after the season gets started, but there's decent value to be had here if he keeps it.
47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Jerry Porter is the new starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Jerry Porter has spent years teasing fantasy owners as the talent that just never shined through. He made a lot of noise in his 3rd season playing the slot receiver role with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown in the prolific Oakland passing attack of 2002, and in 2004 and 2005 he flirted with 1000 yard seasons, but he's just never become the receiver than numerous scouts thought he would. Porter turned in a comendable season in Oakland last season despite constantly being in the dog house, and now he's got a fresh start as the #1 WR for the Jaguars. He is playing for a run-first offense that won't pass a whole lot, so he's not going to rack up the receptions like many #1 WRs do, but he's the most talented WR for the Jags. Given their ability to get the ball downfield to the sluggish Reggie Williams, I expect Porter to turn in a WR3 season at worst, assuming he can get over the hamstring surgery that has him currently sidelined. Don't go drafting him as a WR3 and expecting immediately production, but he makes a great WR4 to stash for when he gets acclimated to his new team.
48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: There was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. Between the injuries that Fitzgerald and Boldin have suffered over the past 3 seasons, Johnson was given a handful of starts each year, was often picked up during those times, but then just never seemed to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Johnson is a big WR at 6'3, 216, so he's not the ideal fit for Martz's offense, although he was signed to start for the 49ers after Martz joined as the offensive coordinator. Martz will fix the 49ers passing attack, but how much remains to be determined. Johnson will benefit for starting for an offense destined to throw the ball a good amount, so there's some potential here. He's a bit risky as he's never started before, and I don't know if he'll end up being what Mike Martz wants, but the upside and WR4 price make him a solid selection.
WR3 (25 - 36) Value Analysis
25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.
Overview: Joey Galloway has defied his age for the past 3 years, posting 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in his age 35-37 seasons. With Michael Clayton unable to capture the magic of his rookie season and the only other option the roster fellow geriatric Ike Hilliard, the Bucs continue to ride Galloway like a #1 receiver. Expect that to end this season. At 38 years old, I believe this is the season that marks the end of the road. The Bucs offense isn't going to light the NFL on fire, and Joey Galloway's upside is probably limited to not much higher up than where he's currently being drafted. With his age, the downside is tremendous, making Galloway a poor selection as a top WR3.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Chris Chambers was finally released from the prison known as Miami last season, and he joined the Chargers to become their #1 WR, and #2 receiving target after Antonio Gates. After somewhat of a slow start, he assimilated himself well into the offense, and posted solid WR3 numbers before exploding with a great run in the playoffs. He's SD's most talented WR, and with Gates' toe rehab likely affecting his availability for the start of the season, he'll be SD's top receiving target for as long as Gates is out. Complicating matters is the fact that Phillip Rivers is returning from ACL surgery, and like I mentioned with LT, QBs generally struggle in the first half after such a surgery. If Gates does miss time, I think that will counter-balance Rivers' assumed struggles by Chambers being used more often. I think Chambers is a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and not much downside. He's a good pick here.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bobby Petrino is no longer the head coach, QB competition.
Overview: Roddy White exploded last season under the downfield passing attack run by new head coach Bobby Petrino, posting career highs of 1202 yards and 6 TDs. With the new, conservative offense that Mike Mularkey runs taking over, I'm not as high on Roddy White this year. He was a potentially undervalued breakthrough candidate again this season in the right circumstances, but the Falcons offense is going through an overhaul into a run-first scheme, and it's very likely that rookie Matt Ryan will see significant playing time at some point. Given the conservative nature of the passing offense and the potential of a rookie QB playing a decent number of games, I don't see a lot of upside here for White, but he should still see the ball plenty as he's easily the best option in the passing game, and that should allow for him to match his ADP.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Vincent Jackson was a popular sleeper last year, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he didn't wake up til the playoffs. Jackson posted a couple nice games, but for the most part they were clunkers, and adding Chris Chambers to an offense that was run-oriented made things even worse. However, once the playoffs rolled around, the Chargers were throwing the ball all over the field, and Jackson responded with 3 nice games in a row. Much like Chambers, Jackson will benefit from any time that Gates misses. He'll move up to the #2 passing option with Gates sidelined, and he'll see both increased targets and production. He seems primed for a solid WR3 compaign without a whole lot of downside, so he's also a solid selection here. I definitely prefer Chambers, and if Gates returns, Jackson will have a hard time finding enough targets to be reliable on a weekly basis.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Coles' ability to play hurt was overmatched last season as he missed 5 games, played ineffectively hurt in others, and only had a few good games throughout the season. For the first time since pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, he's going to have a very good QB throwing him the ball. This will increase his consistency, his yardage output, and his TD output. Coles did have a very good chemsitry with Pennington, and you can't completely disregard that, but the acquisition of Favre improves the overall offense, which should trump that fact. Coles now becomes a very solid value as a WR3, and the only reason I don't have him as under valued is because of injury concerns.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Kevin Curtis made his Philadelphia debut last season, and I believe the word "erratic" was the best way to describe him. He had 3 100 yard games with at least 1 TD, one other game with 78 yards and a TD, but he didn't score in the other 12 games, nor did he cross 100 yards. You can blame part of that on learning a new offense and part of it on the overall struggles of the Philly passing game. With McNabb turning in a healthy offseason, Curtis does have some additional upside via what should go down as a more consistent season. He's a reliable route runner with deep speed and solid hands, and he should be the 1A to Reggie Brown's 1B. If Reggie Brown finally steps up this season, he could see less targets, but his ability to make big plays should overcome that somewhat, as will the willingness for Philadelphia to throw the ball a lot. I think he's a solid value here with a little bit of upside and a little bit of downside.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive 2007 season given the struggles of the Jets offense. He put up 169 more yards more than his previous season despite poor QB play, although the 2 TDs were a concern. Cotchery, despite the non-household name, is in the same mold at TO, Boldin, and rookie Dwayne Bowe in that he's very hard to bring down and will run over defensive backs at will. He also has the speed to beat the defense, which means he can shine in both the short and deep passing game. With the acquisition of Brett Favre, I bet that Cotchery passes Coles as the #1 option for the Jets passing game this season. I think Cotchery leaps into the WR2 territory this year, and for a WR3 price, that's good value.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Anthony Gonzalez showed well in the Indy offense last season with Harrison out. He was originally going to be the slot receiver and hopefully fill Stokley's role, but Harrison injury forced him outside, and he put up a solid rookie season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes, but that's to be expected from most rookie WRs. Indy did well here as Harrison's understudy. For his 2008 value, it's simple. If Marvin Harrison is healthy, Gonzalez is a poor WR3 as he'd be behind Wayne, Harrison, and Clark for targets. He'd have too many clunkers to rely upon on a weekly basis. This is looking more and more like the case, so I'd pass on Gonzalez at this price.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Reggie Brown was a popular pick last season after an impressive 2nd season, but McNabb's recovery from ACL surgery was overlooked. Once McNabb looked himself in the 2nd half, Brown looked much better, but Kevin Curtis cut into Brown's production. With McNabb healthy again, I expect Brown to improve upon his solid 2006 production of 816 yards, and the 8 TDs he scored that year are within reach as well, especially after scoring 4 times in the 2nd half of 2007. Brown doesn't have much downside as a WR3, but he certainly has upside in a solid offense with a good target across from him. I don't see him having the ability to be a true stud based on his spread-the-wealth offense, but I think he jumps into the WR2 realm this season, making him a good value.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Santana Moss was a pretty large bust in 2007, battling leg injuries for much of the year which cut into his production. He closed strong, however, giving owners some hope for 2008. Gone is the Gibbs' offense, and it's being replaced with the WCO that Jim Zorn brings over from Seattle. Moss will be the primary target for this new offense, and if you saw what Darrell Jackson was able to accomplish as the #1 target in Seattle's offense, Moss arguably has borderline WR1 upside. The only factor is how fast Jason Cambell grasps another new offensive scheme, although with as many scheme changes he faced in college, this should be old news to him. Moss is a solid fit into the WCO, and with Randle El moving to the slot, Cooley at TE, and talented rookie Malcolm Kelly across from him, defense won't be able to key on him so much. I think WR3 is his downside this season, and I like him to step it up from this position, making him a good value.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Javon Walker is the new starting WR for the Raiders.
Overview: Javon Walker was a massive bust in 2007. After a miraculous 2006 season with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in his new Broncos digs, much the same was expected in 2007, but his knee didn't cooperate. He showed up in week 2 with a big 108 yard performance, but disappeared for the rest of the season after that. His robbing in Vegas was possibly by a disgruntled fantasy owner, but doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward. The health of his knee, however, is. He's had multiple surgeries, and despite the incredible 2007 season, he's seemingly had problems with it ever since the initial ACL injury in 2006. Throw in the fact that Jamarcus Russell will be starting all season long, and I really find it hard to draft Walker as an every week WR3 starter. Keep an eye on his progress. If he looks good in preseason, it's time to re-visit his value. As of now, I wouldn't recommend him.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Patrick Crayton was a bit of a disappointment in 2007. He dropped passes despite the ridiculous hands he showed off in 2006, and he was insanely inconsistent. With Terry Glenn gone, the 2nd WR gig is all his, and I do expect improvement in 2008. Crayton should be more ready to be the starting WR, and being opposite of T.O. has big coverage advantages, especially with Witten the threat he is over the middle. That being said, however, he is the third option on the offense, and the Cowboys aren't going to pass like crazy. An improvement would put him into the reliable WR3 catagory, and I expect him to do that. There isn't much additional upside, however, but I believe last year would be his absolute downside as well.
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.
Overview: Joey Galloway has defied his age for the past 3 years, posting 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in his age 35-37 seasons. With Michael Clayton unable to capture the magic of his rookie season and the only other option the roster fellow geriatric Ike Hilliard, the Bucs continue to ride Galloway like a #1 receiver. Expect that to end this season. At 38 years old, I believe this is the season that marks the end of the road. The Bucs offense isn't going to light the NFL on fire, and Joey Galloway's upside is probably limited to not much higher up than where he's currently being drafted. With his age, the downside is tremendous, making Galloway a poor selection as a top WR3.
26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Chris Chambers was finally released from the prison known as Miami last season, and he joined the Chargers to become their #1 WR, and #2 receiving target after Antonio Gates. After somewhat of a slow start, he assimilated himself well into the offense, and posted solid WR3 numbers before exploding with a great run in the playoffs. He's SD's most talented WR, and with Gates' toe rehab likely affecting his availability for the start of the season, he'll be SD's top receiving target for as long as Gates is out. Complicating matters is the fact that Phillip Rivers is returning from ACL surgery, and like I mentioned with LT, QBs generally struggle in the first half after such a surgery. If Gates does miss time, I think that will counter-balance Rivers' assumed struggles by Chambers being used more often. I think Chambers is a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and not much downside. He's a good pick here.
27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Bobby Petrino is no longer the head coach, QB competition.
Overview: Roddy White exploded last season under the downfield passing attack run by new head coach Bobby Petrino, posting career highs of 1202 yards and 6 TDs. With the new, conservative offense that Mike Mularkey runs taking over, I'm not as high on Roddy White this year. He was a potentially undervalued breakthrough candidate again this season in the right circumstances, but the Falcons offense is going through an overhaul into a run-first scheme, and it's very likely that rookie Matt Ryan will see significant playing time at some point. Given the conservative nature of the passing offense and the potential of a rookie QB playing a decent number of games, I don't see a lot of upside here for White, but he should still see the ball plenty as he's easily the best option in the passing game, and that should allow for him to match his ADP.
28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued
What's Changed: QB Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, TE Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: Vincent Jackson was a popular sleeper last year, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he didn't wake up til the playoffs. Jackson posted a couple nice games, but for the most part they were clunkers, and adding Chris Chambers to an offense that was run-oriented made things even worse. However, once the playoffs rolled around, the Chargers were throwing the ball all over the field, and Jackson responded with 3 nice games in a row. Much like Chambers, Jackson will benefit from any time that Gates misses. He'll move up to the #2 passing option with Gates sidelined, and he'll see both increased targets and production. He seems primed for a solid WR3 compaign without a whole lot of downside, so he's also a solid selection here. I definitely prefer Chambers, and if Gates returns, Jackson will have a hard time finding enough targets to be reliable on a weekly basis.
29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Coles' ability to play hurt was overmatched last season as he missed 5 games, played ineffectively hurt in others, and only had a few good games throughout the season. For the first time since pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, he's going to have a very good QB throwing him the ball. This will increase his consistency, his yardage output, and his TD output. Coles did have a very good chemsitry with Pennington, and you can't completely disregard that, but the acquisition of Favre improves the overall offense, which should trump that fact. Coles now becomes a very solid value as a WR3, and the only reason I don't have him as under valued is because of injury concerns.
30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Kevin Curtis made his Philadelphia debut last season, and I believe the word "erratic" was the best way to describe him. He had 3 100 yard games with at least 1 TD, one other game with 78 yards and a TD, but he didn't score in the other 12 games, nor did he cross 100 yards. You can blame part of that on learning a new offense and part of it on the overall struggles of the Philly passing game. With McNabb turning in a healthy offseason, Curtis does have some additional upside via what should go down as a more consistent season. He's a reliable route runner with deep speed and solid hands, and he should be the 1A to Reggie Brown's 1B. If Reggie Brown finally steps up this season, he could see less targets, but his ability to make big plays should overcome that somewhat, as will the willingness for Philadelphia to throw the ball a lot. I think he's a solid value here with a little bit of upside and a little bit of downside.
31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive 2007 season given the struggles of the Jets offense. He put up 169 more yards more than his previous season despite poor QB play, although the 2 TDs were a concern. Cotchery, despite the non-household name, is in the same mold at TO, Boldin, and rookie Dwayne Bowe in that he's very hard to bring down and will run over defensive backs at will. He also has the speed to beat the defense, which means he can shine in both the short and deep passing game. With the acquisition of Brett Favre, I bet that Cotchery passes Coles as the #1 option for the Jets passing game this season. I think Cotchery leaps into the WR2 territory this year, and for a WR3 price, that's good value.
32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Anthony Gonzalez showed well in the Indy offense last season with Harrison out. He was originally going to be the slot receiver and hopefully fill Stokley's role, but Harrison injury forced him outside, and he put up a solid rookie season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes, but that's to be expected from most rookie WRs. Indy did well here as Harrison's understudy. For his 2008 value, it's simple. If Marvin Harrison is healthy, Gonzalez is a poor WR3 as he'd be behind Wayne, Harrison, and Clark for targets. He'd have too many clunkers to rely upon on a weekly basis. This is looking more and more like the case, so I'd pass on Gonzalez at this price.
33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Reggie Brown was a popular pick last season after an impressive 2nd season, but McNabb's recovery from ACL surgery was overlooked. Once McNabb looked himself in the 2nd half, Brown looked much better, but Kevin Curtis cut into Brown's production. With McNabb healthy again, I expect Brown to improve upon his solid 2006 production of 816 yards, and the 8 TDs he scored that year are within reach as well, especially after scoring 4 times in the 2nd half of 2007. Brown doesn't have much downside as a WR3, but he certainly has upside in a solid offense with a good target across from him. I don't see him having the ability to be a true stud based on his spread-the-wealth offense, but I think he jumps into the WR2 realm this season, making him a good value.
34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Santana Moss was a pretty large bust in 2007, battling leg injuries for much of the year which cut into his production. He closed strong, however, giving owners some hope for 2008. Gone is the Gibbs' offense, and it's being replaced with the WCO that Jim Zorn brings over from Seattle. Moss will be the primary target for this new offense, and if you saw what Darrell Jackson was able to accomplish as the #1 target in Seattle's offense, Moss arguably has borderline WR1 upside. The only factor is how fast Jason Cambell grasps another new offensive scheme, although with as many scheme changes he faced in college, this should be old news to him. Moss is a solid fit into the WCO, and with Randle El moving to the slot, Cooley at TE, and talented rookie Malcolm Kelly across from him, defense won't be able to key on him so much. I think WR3 is his downside this season, and I like him to step it up from this position, making him a good value.
35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Javon Walker is the new starting WR for the Raiders.
Overview: Javon Walker was a massive bust in 2007. After a miraculous 2006 season with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in his new Broncos digs, much the same was expected in 2007, but his knee didn't cooperate. He showed up in week 2 with a big 108 yard performance, but disappeared for the rest of the season after that. His robbing in Vegas was possibly by a disgruntled fantasy owner, but doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward. The health of his knee, however, is. He's had multiple surgeries, and despite the incredible 2007 season, he's seemingly had problems with it ever since the initial ACL injury in 2006. Throw in the fact that Jamarcus Russell will be starting all season long, and I really find it hard to draft Walker as an every week WR3 starter. Keep an eye on his progress. If he looks good in preseason, it's time to re-visit his value. As of now, I wouldn't recommend him.
36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Patrick Crayton was a bit of a disappointment in 2007. He dropped passes despite the ridiculous hands he showed off in 2006, and he was insanely inconsistent. With Terry Glenn gone, the 2nd WR gig is all his, and I do expect improvement in 2008. Crayton should be more ready to be the starting WR, and being opposite of T.O. has big coverage advantages, especially with Witten the threat he is over the middle. That being said, however, he is the third option on the offense, and the Cowboys aren't going to pass like crazy. An improvement would put him into the reliable WR3 catagory, and I expect him to do that. There isn't much additional upside, however, but I believe last year would be his absolute downside as well.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
WR2 (13 - 24) Value Analysis
13) Plaxico Burress
ADP: 36.1 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Traded TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Plaxico Burress was doing his best Randy Moss imitation during the first 6 weeks, scoring in every game. However, somewhere between weeks 1 and 2, he injured his ankle, and the pain from the injury finally caught up with him, limiting his explosion and ability to separate, and he went on a terrible 4 game stretch not topping 47 yards. His last 6 games were mixed bags of great games and duds. Such is life with Burress, who again is sitting out of camp with an ankle injury to start the preseason. If Burress is healthy, he's gonna put up great numbers, but he's terribly inconsistent and unreliable. Losing Jeremy Shockey to help deflect attention won't help, but Steve Smith should emerge as a quality secondary option. Burress is a somewhat interesting high risk/reward WR2, but don't go drafting him as your top WR.
14) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 39.9 (4th round, 4th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Matt Leinart.
Overview: Anquan Boldin again put up his usual numbers last season, but unfortunately those usual numbers include missed games. Boldin is right there with Owens in terms of after-the-catch ability, running through defenders at will and powering his way for extra yards much like a running back. Perhaps his style of play is to blame for the nagging injuries. Expect much of the same from Boldin this season, even with Leinart as the QB. His style suits Leinart's strengths better. Boldin is a much better fit as a WR2 than a WR1 given his propensity to miss games, and those who draft him should grab a quality WR4 to prepare accordingly. There always exists the possibility he'll play the whole season and post big numbers, but don't expect it to happen.
15) Greg Jennings
ADP: 41.7 (4th round, 6th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Greg Jennings was the big play king last season, amassing 920 yards and an incredible 12 TDs on only 53 catches. Now it doesn't take a math wizard to realize that that combination of numbers is simply not sustainable over the course of another season, especially with the change to Aaron Rodgers at QB. Donald Driver is definitely in decline and Greg Jennings would ideally replace him, but I'm not sure he has the skill set to be a true #1 WR. I would expect his catches and yards to increase, but I would also expect a decent decline in TDs as the offense just won't score as much with Favre gone, and Jennings stands the most to lose with the QB switch. There's no way I'm drafting Jennings up this high as this position is probably his absolute best case scenario.
16) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Grr. I was expecting big things from Roy Williams last season, drafting him as my WR1 in all 3 leagues. Week 3 was the turning point of the season. Seriously, how many WRs do you know have put up 204 receiving yards, and then get benched in the same game for screwing up? Fucking Roy Williams did. From there, Roy posted one 100 yard game and only scored (2 TDs) in one game before hurting his knee and missing the last month. Roy Williams has all the talent in the world, but he lacks the mental focus to keep it going consistently. Mike Martz was supposed to bring out the best in him, but it never happened. In all honesty, however, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson aren't the quick, expert route-running WRs that Martz prefers. Not to make excuses, but in retrospect, it wasn't the match made in heaven that we all thought it would be. 2008 represents yet another new start for the Lions offense. They will get back to a more traditional offensive approach, and while on the surface losing Mike Martz's pass-happy offense would appear to hurt Roy Williams, I don't believe it will. All those lost pass attempts and yardage will come at the expense of slot receivers Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. The passing game will focus on it's two best targets, and Roy Williams is the most experienced WR they have. The offensive line and Jon Kitna aren't great by any means, but they're solid enough to move the ball through the air. He's also playing for a new contract, and just like Chad Johnson, the added motivation should help his mental focus. He's a very nice value as a WR2 that still has WR1 upside, and I think there's a career season in him this year.
17) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 50.5 (5th round round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Santonio Holmes was a popular sleeper in 2007, and he produced as expected, almost reaching 1000 yards and tossing in 8 TDs. Unfortunately he also missed a few games again with an injury. Holmes is expected to replace Hines Ward as Big Ben's primary target, and it started to happen last year. With the Steelers likely to throw fewer TDs this season, Holmes will have to turn in a full 16 game season to improve upon last year's totals. He should improve his yardage, but probably not the TDs. There's not much downside to the selection, and there's still some additional upside, but the Steelers' run-first offense limits just how much. Consider Holmes a safe choice as a WR2.
18) Hines Ward
ADP: 56.6 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Hines Ward had a 5 year stretch of either 1000+ yards or 10+ TDs, proving to be one of the more reliable options at the WR position. Ward dealt with numerous knee injuries this past offseason, and at 32 years old, he could be breaking down. He was never the most explosive WR, but any additional loss from his ability to separate would be especially bad news. With Pittsburgh set to run as much as ever with the emergence of Santonio Holmes, and Ward will not longer see the targets needed to produce a WR2 stat line. Ward is still a good football player, but I'd look elsewhere for a WR2. Ward is much better suited as a WR3 this season, but he's not being drafted like one.
19) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 57.2 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Brandon Marshall's 2 game suspension, new starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert.
Overview: Brandon Marshall exploded into the WR elite last season. Thanks to Javon Walker's troublesome knee, he immediately became Cutler's favorite target, and he can make every catch on the football field. He either had 67+ yards, a TD, or both in every game, showing incredible consistency in his first full season as a starter. He's only going to get better, but it might not happen this season. An offseason WWE moment left him with a severe injury to his arm, but he looks 100% recovered from that now. Unfortunately, thanks to several off the field incidents, Marshall will serve a 2 game suspension to start the season. With Marshall set to miss only 2 games and fantasy nation still drafting him in the 5th round, Marshall looks like an excellent value. Future missed time due to a September 24th DUI trial remains a possibility, but given the suspension was handed down with the trial a known fact, I find it hard to believe that Marshall will miss additional time.
20) Marvin Harrison
ADP: 57.2 (5th round round, 9th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Marvin Harrison, for the first time in his career, let his fantasy owners down. His career started off with an amazing run of 1100+ yards and 10+ TDs in each of his first 8 seasons. A knee injury suffered in week 3 completely destroyed his season, and worse yet for his fantasy owners, the Colts continued to play it as a week-to-week thing. Between the offseason knee surgery that Marvin was slow to recover from and the shooting at a bar he was associated with, it looked like Harrison was done for good. With the shooting seemingly not linked to Harrison and the fact he's on the practice field already, it's time to start being bullish on Marvin Harrison. He isn't out of the woods yet by any means, but he's starting to look a potential 5th round steal. I advise drafting him at his current price, and he has the potential to be a star WR2 with lower WR1 upside. Just be careful with your other WR positions in preparation for a worst case scenario.
21) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 57.3 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has left.
Overview: Calvin Johnson was supposed to have the rookie season to end all rookie seasons for WRs. He had the talent, the work ethic, and the offensive system to allow him to accomplish that magical rookie season. Amazingly enough, Calvin Johnson was just another rookie WR. He struggled with mental mistakes, he dropped passes, and then a back injury de-railed his ability to consistently stay on the field. Like I mentioned above with Roy Williams, I don't expect the drop in passing attempts as the Lions move away from Martz's pass-happy offense to negatively impact Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. He's still an elite talent where it's a matter of "when", and not "if" he'll explode. Is this the season? At this price, it's worth investing to find out.
22) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 59.7 (5th round, 12th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Dwayne Bowe did what Calvin Johnson should have done. He was the star rookie WR to steal the show. A late season lull kept his overall numbers modest, but that's to be expected from a rookie playing 16 NFL games for the first time. There's a lot of concern about the Chiefs offensive line and Brodie Croyle, but Croyle has the arm to make the most of Bowe's talents. He can get deep, and he's a terror with the ball in his hands. I liken this situation to Cleveland and Braylon Edwards' last season, right down to the young star WR combined with the stud TE, but unfortunately KC's offensive line ino 2008 doesn't have the capability that Cleveland's did prior to 2007. Look for KC's offense to be incredibly conservative, so KC won't pass enough to see Bowe take off, but there's a strong probability that he'll improve on last season's numbers. With the best case upside of lower WR1, and that'd be very good WR2 material.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.
Overview: Fantasy owners were about ready to swear off Lee Evans for good after starting the season with no more than 17 yards in 4 of the first 5 games. Evans then took off in fine fashion from that point forward, posting solid WR2 numbers over the remainder of the season. He's still incredibly inconsistent, with the ability to disappear on any given week. With the inconsistent JP Losman now firmly on the bench, Trent Edwards will assume the starting duties. Edwards does not possess the same arm that Losman does, but he's a much better decision maker and a more consistent QB. It remains to be seen if Edwards has the arm capable of hitting Evans deep, but he should find him more often and increase his reception total. James Hardy adds a tall WR complement to Evans, and he is immediately the most talented WR to play across from Evans since Eric Moulds in Evans' rookie season. Evans is still a one man show as Hardy learns the NFL game, but he should provide solid WR2 numbers with the chance to explode into the top 10. He's another interesting upside pick as a late WR2 who doesn't have as low of a ceiling as you might think.
24) Donald Driver
ADP: 70.3 (6th round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: Donald Driver has been one of the most unheralded good WRs in the NFL for a number of years, and he churned out his 5th 1000 yard season in 2007, but with only 2 TDs. Driver stands to lose the most with the change from Favre to Rodgers. Driver was Favre's preferred target for years, but Rodgers will probably work differently, and there's a lot of talent at the WR position in Green Bay now. With Driver no longer the top dog at the WR position and the ability for Green Bay to spread the targets amongst the talent on the team, look for Driver to continue to decline. The fact he's 33 only weakens his case to bounce back as a WR2 value. I don't see the upside with Driver anymore, and there's an outside possibility that things could get really ugly. I'd avoid him as a WR2.
WR1 (Top 12) Value Analysis
1) Randy Moss
ADP: 7.9 (1st round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Randy Moss provided insane value as a WR2 last year, killing the competition to easily finish as the best WR in fantasy football last season. Accordingly, fantasy nation is taking Randy Moss in the first round. Given the offense around him remains almost identical, there's little reason to think there will be a major dropoff in production, but drafting veterans coming off career years is generally a bad idea as they're normally overpriced. Moss is no different. Moss should still finish in the top 5 WRs, but he's not going to be this much better than the other WRs, and there's no reason to take him over RBs like Barber, Gore, and Portis.
2) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 13.6 (2nd round, 1st pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Reggie Wayne stepped right into the #1 WR role when Marvin Harrison went down, and he posted elite WR numbers, exactly as everyone expected. With Marvin Harrison returning to the fold and seemingly healthy, Wayne doesn't have quite as much upside, but he's still going to post top 5 numbers barring injury. Given he's being selected after the elite RBs are off the board, he's going to provide very solid value, and his yearly consistency is definitely worth the price.
3)Terrell Owens
ADP: 14.2 (2nd round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Tony Romo has helped revived Owens career. Finally playing with a QB whom he doesn't feel the need to insult, Owens was beastly last season, posting big plays and putting together a 7 game scoring streak. An ankle injury really slowed him down towards the end of the season, but it's not a recurring problem. Owens is 34 years old, and he should start slowing down at this age, but he's in incredible shape and will likely see a lesser decline than most WRs. Jason Witten has emerged as a stud receiving TE to keep defenses from focusing on Owens. Given the Cowboys are set up to continue winning, and the fact they didn't add a true secondary target to take targets away from Owens, he should have little reason to act out. He's no longer playing for a contract, and one cannot ignore his past, so understand that there still is risk with selecting him this high.
4) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Braylon Edwards exploded in his third year. Finally paired with a QB willing to air it deep to him, he turned in a season full of big plays and TDs. After week 1, he either had 60+ yards, a TD, or both in every game, producing the consistency that people crave from their WR1. There's no denying Edwards' talent, but I'm very cautiously approaching the 2008 season from the Cleveland Browns. They have the pieces in place to be explosive once again, but Edwards ability to reproduce last season's production relies heavily on Derek Anderson's job security. If Anderson falters, Edwards will too, and a switch to Quinn will hurt Edwards' ability for big plays as he's not as aggressive of a QB. Edwards has more questions about his surrounding cast than the other top WRs, so I'd pass him over for a different option and let someone else take the risk for this price tag.
5) T.J. Houshmandzadeh
ADP: 22.7 (2nd round, 10th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry.
Overview: TJ turned in a career year in 2008. With Chris Henry out the first 8 games, Palmer relied heavily on TJ to pick up the slack, and he dominated in the first half. After week 10, however, TJ only scored twice more, and topped 66 yards twice. TJ is not as good as his first half, and he's not as bad as his second half. I don't believe he'll reach last year's fantasy totals as he's not going to score 12 TDs again, but he'll remain plenty productive. I don't like TJ being drafted as a WR1 this season, and I definitely feel he's overvalued sitting in the top 5.
6) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 22.9 (2nd round, 11th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Matt Leinart.
Overview: Larry Fitzgerald exploded once again last season, and it was completely tied to the fact that Leinart went down and Warner took over as the starter. It didn't hurt that Boldin missed some time as well, giving Fitzgerald all the targets he could handle in his absence. Unfortunately, Leinart returns as the starting QB this season. I hope the collarbone injury showed the party-instead-of-learn-the-playbook Leinart that he needs to take his job seriously and fully commit to becoming an NFL QB, but we won't know until the season starts if that will actually be the case. Leinart doesn't have the same field-stretching ability in his arm that Warner possesses, but with Edge slowing down and no heir apparent, Arizona will have to pass to score. Call me conservative, but I want to see Fitzgerald post a top season with Leinart at the helm before I go taking him as my WR1.
Edit: With Warner back behind center, I have no problem taking Fitzgerald as my WR1.
7) Andre Johnson
ADP: 23.9 (2nd round, 12th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Nothing.
Overview: So THAT's what Andre Johnson can do with a non-turd QB. With David Carr gone, Andre Johnson exploded out of the gate with back-to-back 120+ yard games and 3 TDs before an awkward tackle injured his knee and knocked him out til week 11. Once he returned, he picked back up where he left off with...120 yards and a TD. The beautiful thing about his 2007 season is even when Matt Schaub went down, AJ was right at home in Houston's solid offensive system, and he didn't miss a beat with Sage Rosenfels. Given Schaub's injury woes last season, it was smart for Houston to ultimately hang onto Rosenfels despite attempting to trade him. AJ is set up for a monster 2008 season.
8) Steve Smith
ADP: 24.8 (3rd round, 1st pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Returning starting QB Jake Delhomme.
Overview: Fucking David Carr. He's always ruining something. Steve Smith exploded out of the gates with 2 massive games. Jake Delhomme's elbow gave out in week 3, and Smith's season turned into trash. He had a random explosion in week 6 with Vinny Testaverde, but it took til week 16 with Matt Moore at QB for him to match that production again. With David Carr at the helm, Smith was hopeless. Delhomme has returned from Tommy John surgery, and Steve Smith stated he's throwing the ball harder than before. Now while that's not uncommon with pitchers who undergo the surgery, it's equally as likely that Smith's perception was screwed up after who was throwing the ball to him the majority of 2007. With Delhomme set to start and finally a capable backup in Matt Moore behind him, Steve Smith looks primed to rebound in 2008.
9) Marques Colston
ADP: 27.1 (3rd round, 3rd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Marques Colston was as advertised when he broke out in 2006, following it up with an even better 2007. He struggled out of the gates along with the rest of the Saints offense, but once the offense as a whole adjusted, Colston went back to his dominating 2006 ways. With Jeremy Shockey now in the fold, Colston finally has an established receiving target to deflect attention from him, which should lead to more big plays. The Saints offense will be pass-first once again, and Colston is well positioned to continue as a top fantasy WR once again in 2008.
10) Chad Johnson
ADP: 29.1 (3rd round, 5th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.
Overview: Chad Johnson did what he usually does in 2007, posting a career high in yardage with his average of 8 TDs. While he made plenty of noise about holding out for a new contract this offseason, he did what almost all players do when it's time to get paid...show up to practice and get ready for the season. Highly motivated to cash in on what will likely be his final huge contract, I expect the best of Chad Johnson to show up in 2008. The extra motivation should help him overcome the mental lapses that prevent him from being truly special. Expect a big year.
Update: With the news that CJ has a torn labrum and will try to put off surgery and play through the pain, he's gone from under valued to over valued. Don't draft him.
11) Torry Holt
ADP: 33.4 (3rd round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Isaac Bruce.
Overview: Torry Holt had an impressive 2007. His 2006 and 2007 numbers are eerily similar, which are the worst yardage totals since his rookie season. The backstory behind that was the constant injuries the Rams' offense endured last season, and despite all of that, Holt was still plenty productive. Holt is starting to become an injury risk with various ailments slowing him down the past 3 seasons, but he always manages to find a way to put up his usual numbers. He should see more passes this season with the lack of quality options around him, but his surrounding offense is roughly average, so expecting much of an increase over his past two seasons would be unwise. Holt is a safe WR1/WR2 choice, but you're not getting any upside with the selection.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 36.0 (3rd round, 12th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.
Overview: Wes Welker a WR1? Despite being a slot receiver on the field, Welker was undeniably Brady's secondary option, and he led the Patriots in receptions. With 1175 yards and 8 TDs, he certainly was close to WR1 production. Like I stated with both Brady and Moss, there's no way the Patriots replicate last season's passing attack, and that will mean less yards and less TDs for Welker. If he was barely a WR1 last season in what will likely be his career season, why are people drafting him to repeat and hopefully improve? No value in this selection whatsoever.
RB3 (25 - 36) Value Analysis
25) Thomas Jones
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brett Favre, signed OG Alan Faneca, drafted TE Dustin Keller.
Overview: 1 touchdown? SRSLY? This is the only reason I can understand why Thomas Jones is being undervalued by fantasy football nation. He racked up 1119 yards on the ground last year (the 3.6 YPC is concerning), but somehow only managed 1 TD. Enter road grader Alan Faneca and the maturation of both D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, and you have a promising offensive line that should open plenty of holes. Thomas Jones is not a game breaker, but he still runs hard and possesses the ability to make some people miss, plus he's a solid pass catcher as well. Leon Washington is no longer a serious threat to his carries as he's simply just a change-of-pace RB. With Brett Favre in town, TJ will undoubtedly score more this year, possibly in the range of 8 TDs. If you load up on other positions early on, Thomas Jones is an ideal RB2 candidate in round 5, and an excellent RB3.
26) LenDale White
ADP: 54.2 (5th round, 6th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins and TE Alge Crumpler.
Overview: LenWhale White is fat, but at this cost, he's also phat. He was an excellent draft value last season, and this year appears to be similar. In the mold of Eddie George with more pudge, White logged over 300 carries last year and posted 1108 yards and 7 TDs with a rather paltry 3.6 YPC. He played through a knee injury for much of the year as well, so that might allow him to post a better YPC this season as it might help his explosion a bit. The Titans drafted Chris Johnson in the first round, but he's going to replace Chris Henry as the change-of-pace RB, and not White as the primary ball carrier. Much like Thomas Jones, White will allow you to put off the RB2 position until the 5th round, but still grab a guy destined for 300 carries and a handful of TDs. There's little upside here, but the position flexibility he allows you in the previous rounds is well worth the value.
27) Rudi Johnson
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.
Overview: Rudi Johnson sorely disappointed his fantasy owners last season as the big workload he endured from 2004-2006 caught up to him. He posted a great week 2, but then struggled through an injury in a disgusting week 3, and he wasn't the same through week 11. Weeks 12 and 14 he looked like the old Rudi, but then he went down yet again for the season in week 15. Cincinnati is almost certain to use a committee this season, but in all honesty, Kenny Watson is the best RB on their roster, and I expect him to take over the primary RB position at some point during the season. Rudi Johnson was much like Thomas Jones and LenDale White in his prime, 2 RBs he's being selected right after on average, but with a few more TDs thanks to the prolific offense he was running with. With his career on the downside and his job in jeopardy, there's absolutely no reason to select him this season.
28) Fred Taylor
ADP: 57.1 (5th round, 9th pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.
Overview: Simply put, Fred Taylor was amazing last year. In his 31 year old season, he ran for 1202 yards and posted an explosive 5.4 YPC. The offense should remain the same in scheme, and they did add Jerry Porter to help out the passing game, so the running game looks to be effective once again. While Taylor has had great back-to-back seasons, he's now 32 years old, and history just doesn't agree with him doing it again. I have no factual data to back this up, and injuries are general hard to predict, but something just doesn't seem right drafting Fred Taylor this year. Perhaps the offense will take a step back, perhaps Fred Taylor will get hurt, but something is going to prevent Fred Taylor from having a 2008 season that mirrors his performance in 2006 and 2007.
29) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 61.8 (6th round, 2nd pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Stewart is the new starting RB for the Panthers, Jake Delhomme's Tommy John surgery, signed WRs DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
Overview: Jonathan Stewart was Carolina's 1st round pick. He fell a bit on draft day due to concerns about his turf toe, but he underwent surgery on the toe to rectify the problem, and he's expected to be ready for camp. He is signed. Fantasy nation appears concerned that a 50/50 timeshare with DeAngelo Williams is on the horizon, but I'm not buying this at all. John Fox is a proponent of the power rushing game, and when Carolina was at their best, they were punishing defenses with Stephen Davis, and DeShaun Foster was a change-of-pace RB. Carolina then spent several years with Foster as the primary ball carrier, and he was nothing short of mediocre. They inexplicably drafted DeAngelo Williams, who while a talented RB, simply does not fit Carolina's preferred power rushing attack. Enter Jonathan Stewart, who is a power rusher with speed and pass catching ability. I fully believe that Stewart was drafted to become Carolina's new primary RB, assuming he doesn't have a setback with his toe once he's cleared to practice with the team. Williams should continue to be a change-of-pace RB who also hands some 3rd down work, but Stewart is already a better blocker, and he won't come off the field on every 3rd down. As I've mentioned several times before, there's always a risk in drafting a first time primary RB, but Williams will ease his workload a bit, and there's a lot to like here.
Update: Stewart continues to miss practices and has already missed 1 preseason game. Williams had a great 1st preseason game, and he is strengthening his case to have a sizeable role in the offense. I have updated Stewart's value to "appropriate" as once he's healthy, he'll certainly have a solid role in the offense as well, but he's no longer a threat to take the majority of the carries in week 1.
30) Matt Forte
ADP: 64.1 (6th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Matt Forte is the new starting RB for the Bears, drafted OT Chris Williams, signed WR Brandon Lloyd.
Overview: Matt Forte was originally drafted to compete with Cedric Benson to be Chicago's starting RB, but with Cedric Benson more worried about getting hammered than working on his deficiencies on the football field, Benson was cut. Matt Forte is now the unquestioned starter in the backfield for Chicago. I know many people will ask about the recent signing of Kevin Jones, but KJ is a strong candidate to start the season on PUP and miss the first 6 games, allowing Forte the ability to show what he can do. Forte is a well-rounded RB who's only knock against him was the weaker competition he faced in college. He's a true 3 down back that should be on the field plenty for the Bears. While the Bears passing attack appears to be a train wreck on paper, they did improve their offensive line, and they will continue to run the ball plenty and play defense. Forte isn't going to light up the stat sheet or score a bunch of TDs, but he'll see the ball plenty and should produce solid RB2 numbers at worst.
31) Selvin Young
ADP: 66.7 (6th round, 7th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Selvin Young is the new starting RB for the Broncos.
Overview: With Travis Henry facing a suspension last season, Selvin Young became a very popular name in fantasy circles. While he never got the true bulk of the carries thanks to Travis Henry never actually getting suspended, he showed that he has the talent to be a very interesting fantasy RB. He bulked up this offseason, adding muscle with the mindset of becoming the primary RB for the Broncos. While Denver's RB position is official open to competition, those of us familiar with the "Shanahanigans" understand that Selvin Young is the heavy favorite. Andre Hall was impressive in his start last season against the Bears, but Young is more talented. Michael Pittman was signed to be a role player, not a starting RB. Finally we have Ryan Torain, who was Young's biggest competition, but an elbow injury has eliminated him from the RB competition. While Young offers incredible upside as the likely starting Broncos RB, and with Torain injured, he's certain to win the job. I find it hard to believe he'll last 16 weeks, but he's a great RB3.
32) Kevin Smith
ADP: 75.2 (7th round, 3rd pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: Kevin Smith is the new starting RB for the Lions.
Overview: Kevin Smith was a well known name in college circles last season as he had a chance to break Barry Sanders all-time NCAA rushing record for yards in a season, but he fell just short. Which was good, by the way, as Smith needed far more carries to reach that yardage total than Barry did. Given he played at Central Florida against lesser competition, teams shied away from him on draft day despite his amazing collegiate production. He landed in a perfect spot on the Lions as incumbant starter Kevin Jones was released due to injury concerns, and Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun don't offer stiff competition. Kevin Smith is definitely the favorite to be the Lions starting RB this season, and that gives him plenty of upside from the 7th round. His workload of 450 carries last season is definitely a concern, but Smith is coming as a potential starting RB in the 7th round, and that's worth drafting.
33) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 80.4 (7th round, 8th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Rashard Mendenhall is in a RBBC, drafted WR Limas Sweed.
Overview: Mendenhall was essentially a one year wonder at the University of Illinois, and the beneficiary of the best offense the Illini have seen in years. He was the MVP of their spread offense, but his talent showed with his ability to break tackles and get into the open with good speed. He's a complete RB, and he's much more of a power back than Willie Parker. He should be the MJD of the Steelers, not only coming into the game as a change-of-pace RB, but also dominating the goal line carries and likely the 3rd down duties as well. If Parker were to go down, Mendenhall would have huge upside, but Parker's leg injury last year is the only one of his career. Lessening Parker's workload should keep him fresh and less susceptible to injury, so draft Mendenhall for his current role with the ability for more, and not because you think Parker will get injured.34) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 82.3 (7th round, 10th pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Released RB DeShaun Foster, drafted RB Jonathan Stewart.
Overview: It's really a shame that Carolina never seemed to give Williams a legit chance to be the primary RB. Perhaps it's because the coaching staff sees something that the rest of us don't, but I certainly see a lot of Brian Westbrook in Williams. The fact is, however, that Williams is not a good fit for the power rushing game that Carolina likes to run. I believe Williams will get maybe 1/3 of the carries, but he won't be in at the goal line, and he'll only play some of the 3rd downs given his deficiencies with blocking. Given we've entered the area of RBs who need something to happen in order to start, he's a decent gamble here, but I wouldn't want him as an RB3.
35) Deuce McAllister
ADP: 87.4 (8th round, 3rd pick)Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Torn ACL, microfracture surgery, traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.
Overview: Deuce McAllister has been a wonderful addition to the Saints franchise over the years, and he's always been both great on the field and to the community. However, his knees are shot. He's suffered 2 torn ACLs, once in 2005, and again in 2007, and also underwent microfracture surgery on the knee he didn't tear the ACL in. Given the emergence of Pierre Thomas as a viable complement to Reggie Bush, there's absolutely no need to rush Deuce back, and there's an outside chance that he might not contribute much at all in 2008.
36) Chester Taylor
ADP: 87.7 (8th round, 4th pick)Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting RB Adrian Peterson, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: Chester Taylor will give way to Peterson and become the lesser RB in this committee, but he still has plenty of value. He'll see his fair share of time on the field as Minnesota figures to continue running the ball a ton, and if anything were to happen to Peterson, Taylor would become RB1 material as he proved last year when Peterson missed a couple games with a knee injury. Taylor is a must grab for Peterson, but he has stand-alone value on all other teams as well.
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