So yeah, the Cincinnati Bengals RB situation is a complete mess right now. Here's how I break down the candidates...very literally in the case of Rudi Johnson.
Rudi Johnson - After bursting onto the scene in 2003 when Corey Dillon dealt with various injuries, Rudi Johnson was one of FF's most productive RBs between 2004 and 2006, going over 1400 total yards with 12 TDs each season. 3 straight seasons of 350+ touches caught up to Rudi last year as he was hampered by a hamstring injury that bothered from from week 3 onwards. That hamstring injury has continued to be a problem this preseason, and now there's rumors of him being traded. Given what little he's shown since the start of last season, it's hard to imagine a team giving up anything for him. Don't bother drafting him as he won't be on the Bengals final roster.
Kenny Watson - Watson had 4 games with 19+ carries last year, totaling 417 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs in those 4 games. Like Rudi, Watson isn't a flashy runner, but he's powerful and drives through tacklers. Unlike Rudi, Watson is very proficient in the passing game as a legit threat coming out of the backfield. Watson is worth drafting in the last couple rounds as a RB5. You might wonder why Watson isn't handed the starting gig, which brings me to....
Chris Perry - I watched Chris Perry run at Michigan, and the only thing that has ever held him back at any level has been his injuries. He's a talented, well-rounded back who combines speed, power, and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy for once, which has only happened once for a 14 game stretch in 2005, he will be a definite fantasy asset this year. He has the perfect skill set for what the Bengals like to do on offense. I would imagine the Bengals will be careful with his workload given his durability concerns, but he should be plenty productive. There's no way you can count on him staying healthy, but he's a very intriguing RB4 selection and should start in week 1.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
My 2 Drafts
First of all, I'd like to apologize for the problems I've had ranking the top 3-4 RBs after Tomlinson and Peterson. There's a lot of good and bad to all of them. After I considered everything, I ended up selecting Marion Barber #3 overall (non-PPR). There's a chance he may wear down as the primary ball carrier, but he did have 248 touches last season. The Cowboys will monitor his workload and not go overboard, plus he's in such a great position to succeed. The Cowboys line is great, and their passing game is among the elite. Barber is great near the goal line and is also an accomplished contributor in the passing game. They Cowboys will use Felix Jones, but Barber is a special talent. My original stance was avoiding first time RBs, but really only Addai had a huge downgrade in performance in the 2nd half of last season. Lynch and Peterson both suffered minor injuries, but their performance didn't suffer that much, if at all, when they returned.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
Bengals WR Chad Johnson Reportedly Has Torn Labrum
Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Johnson reportedly has a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he plans to avoid surgery and play through the injury.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Kurt Warner Reportedly Named Arizona's Starting QB
Kurt Warner has reportedly been named the new Arizona Cardinals starting QB, replacing Matt Leinart.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
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