I have my 2nd draft on Monday night, and I pick 12th out of 12 teams in this one. I'm obviously in a much different situation than in my previous draft where I picked 6th. The bad thing is that this significantly alters my preparation for the 1st - 4th round picks, but the good thing is that my targets for the 5th round and beyond stay the same.
The 12th pick in the draft is one of the most ideal positions to get a little crazy. I am generally married to taking a RB in the 1st round, as I've never drafted another position there before in my 9 years of playing fantasy football, but the FF world has changed with many teams utilizing a RBBC attack on the ground. Frank Gore's ADP is holding steady at 14, and my ideal situation is him falling to me at 12. If that's the case, then my draft will be very easy from then on out. If he doesn't fall, then I'm looking at the following players:
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs was the #12 RB last season, but with 3 missed games. Missed games are a staple of owning Jacobs it appears. He mostly makes up for it by being a TD beast (ignore the 2007 anomaly), but I generally like RBs that catch passes so that they remain productive even in games where their teams are often trailing. The good thing is that with the Giants defense, they'll be in more close games than most teams. Bradshaw won't hinder Jacobs any more than Ward did last year, and it's not a bad thing because of Jacobs' propensity to get injured. He's also an excellent change-of-pace to keep defenses on their toes.
Marion Barber - I'm not worried about Barber's injury issues that some people talk about. He's only had one injury, and that was last season with that toe injury. I'm also not too worried about Choice's emergence last season because despite his impressive performance, he's still clearly 3rd on both the talent and depth charts. What I am worried about is the lack of offensive explosion without Owens...Romo needs Roy Williams to step up and fill that void. Williams has the talent, but it's anyone's guess as to if he'll actually man up and produce. Barber was a RB1, the #7 RB actually, in 2007 when he last had that "closer" role on the offense. I think the Cowboys will put him back in that role, especially with Felix Jones looking so good. The problem is that was with the Owens-led team, they had that explosive element that allowed them to get leads, and then Barber mashed defenses in the 4th quarter. This team's makeup is different. It might balance out better as they'll favor the running game more since that's where their best talent lies, but it's hard to say.
Brian Westbrook - He's 30 years old and coming off of two major offseason leg surgeries. I'm not buying that he'll return to form, and given his ADP has sank to 2.07, it appears fantasy nation is somewhat agreeing. McCoy's hype has faded a bit after showing that he goes down a bit too easy, but I just don't see Westbrook making a fantasy splash in 2009. I'll pass.
Clinton Portis - Portis has lost his explosion from his earlier career, and at 28 with the amount of carries he's had, it's not surprising. He won me two fantasy titles during his two seasons in Denver, so I have a place in my FF heart for him. :) He needs a huge workload at this stage of his career to be a stud, like he did during the 1st half of last season, but he just can't handle that anymore. He's not a RB1 anymore. I'll pass.
Ronnie Brown - Yes, I'm considering Ronnie Brown at the 12/13 turn. Yes, his ADP is 3.09. The fact is that I will not have a chance at him with the 3.12 pick because I know there's a couple guys in my league that also like him. In 2007, he was a RB1, the #1 RB in fact, before his torn ACL. He's a do-it-all RB, in a contract year, playing in a run-first offense with a great offensive line. I initially wavered on my Brown/Thomas decision in my first draft, but I'm more comfortable with it now. Thomas' knee injury doesn't particularly scare me, but it's hard to know what's going on in Sean Payton's crazy head. PT's knee injury might have him wavering as to how much he wants to use him this season.
After looking at the RBs available at the end of the 3rd round (Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones, McFadden, Addai), I just can't see taking two of those guys and having a great backfield. I know this is the area that Turner and Forte exploded from last year, and it could be Smith and McFadden this year, so maybe I'll change my mind. I'm tentatively ruling out going WR/WR. I wouldn't consider a QB that high no matter what...there just isn't enough of a drop off in my mind from 1st to 8th QB or however many til I decide to take one to warrant taking one. I'm going to have to balance out the pros/cons of Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, and Ronnie Brown. As of now, I will admit I'm leaning towards Brown...he has the best upside of them all. You need to take a chance drafting that late in the 1st round, and that might be the one I take.
Just let Gore fall and I'll be just fine. :)
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Monday, August 31, 2009
Ideal Drafting Time
This seems to be a popular topic among fantasy circles...when to draft your teams. Some like earlier drafts because it allows sleepers like Ray Rice to remain sleepers that you can draft late and look like a genius for doing. Others like later drafts because you can avoid costly preseason injuries.
Me? I personally like to draft as late as possible. I did do an early draft a couple years ago because a friend was leaving the country for 2 month European vacation and wouldn't return until the season started, and I cleaned house with the sleepers that year. Everything considered, however, I just don't like holding my breath each week of the preseason to see what happens. Plus, with numerous depth chart changes and the ability to watch rookies in their first live action at the NFL level, I find it more advantageous to everyone in the league to have as much information as you can before the season starts and you settle into your targets.
Fantasy football is ultimately meant to be fun. Sure, it's incredibly frustrating when dealing with injuries, drafting busts, having the 2nd highest score of the week but facing the top scoring team, and so forth...but there's a lot of fun to be had when doing your draft preparation and watching it come to a head when your sleeper enters your lineup on a bye week and tears shit up. It also allows you, as perhaps a Cowboys fan, to watch a random Dolphins/Bills game and yell at the TV because they're not throwing to Lee Evans enough (even though he's at 7/90 in the first half).
By ideally having a draft after the 3rd week of preseason, when the depth charts settle and most of the starters have avoided a major preseason injury, you have the most information available to you to prepare for the season. This, to me, is the most fun a draft can be. Everyone gets a chance to see players perform on the field before making a final evaluation. Preseason can be a bit overrated at times, but after an offseason full of fluff media pieces about almost everyone, it's nice to be able to see tangible progress from players you have your eyes on drafting.
Me? I personally like to draft as late as possible. I did do an early draft a couple years ago because a friend was leaving the country for 2 month European vacation and wouldn't return until the season started, and I cleaned house with the sleepers that year. Everything considered, however, I just don't like holding my breath each week of the preseason to see what happens. Plus, with numerous depth chart changes and the ability to watch rookies in their first live action at the NFL level, I find it more advantageous to everyone in the league to have as much information as you can before the season starts and you settle into your targets.
Fantasy football is ultimately meant to be fun. Sure, it's incredibly frustrating when dealing with injuries, drafting busts, having the 2nd highest score of the week but facing the top scoring team, and so forth...but there's a lot of fun to be had when doing your draft preparation and watching it come to a head when your sleeper enters your lineup on a bye week and tears shit up. It also allows you, as perhaps a Cowboys fan, to watch a random Dolphins/Bills game and yell at the TV because they're not throwing to Lee Evans enough (even though he's at 7/90 in the first half).
By ideally having a draft after the 3rd week of preseason, when the depth charts settle and most of the starters have avoided a major preseason injury, you have the most information available to you to prepare for the season. This, to me, is the most fun a draft can be. Everyone gets a chance to see players perform on the field before making a final evaluation. Preseason can be a bit overrated at times, but after an offseason full of fluff media pieces about almost everyone, it's nice to be able to see tangible progress from players you have your eyes on drafting.
Team Updates
I'm going to flip through each team and do a quick run down of any injuries or other developments that might affect draft stock.
AFC
Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens has reportedly returned to practice, and he blamed his toe injury on his shoes. I'm not wavering from my draft guide and recommending him as a 3rd/4th round WR. The injury doesn't change anything, but I don't see him posting borderline WR1 numbers anymore at his age in the Buffalo offense. His should score, but his receptions and yardage will suffer. This offense will sorely miss blindside tackle Jason Peters.
Miami Dolphins - Everyone is healthy, and Chad Pennington has solidified his starting role with a good preseason, while Chad Henne has been up and down. Brian Hartline has supposedly won the starting WR position, pushing Bess and Camarillo to battle for the slot WR duties, and I expect Bess to win out there as his skills are ideal for the position. Ginn is worth a shot, but I just don't see another impact player in this group.
New England Patriots - Brady suffered a minor shoulder injury after Haynesworth blasted him after a throw, and while he left the game, it's not considered serious. Brady looks to be back to form, and Moss should turn in another elite season. Don't let that shoulder injury affect your view of Brady...he'll be starting in week 1. The RB situation still looks like a mess, but if you can nab Maroney as an RB4/5, he's worth a shot as the most talented member of the group.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez has won the starting QB job, which shouldn't be surprising. Thomas Jones has struggled to run the ball, and Leon Washington has looked electric. Expect some combination of Jones, Washington, and Greene to start the year, with Washington having the highest upside and my highest recommended pick of the group. Avoid Jones. Cotchery remains a slightly undervalued WR3 with WR2 upside.
Baltimore Ravens - Despite my touting of Ray Rice as the possible goal line back, it appears as though Baltimore will use McGahee in that role for now. McGahee got the goal line carries in preseason week 3, but this might be a committee approach. Ray Rice easily remains the best option of the group here, and McClain is mostly a fullback now. Rice will lead the team in carries barring an injury, and he's also going to dominate 3rd down work as well. McGahee, if had as a late rounder, isn't bad either. I can't recommend anyone else on the team as Flacco has little to throw to, and the receivers are either old (Mason) or have constant injury problems (Clayton, Williams).
Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Henry keeps scoring, and he's certainly making a statement to start on the outside opposite Ochocinco. Coles is better suited for the slot when compared to Henry, and it would allow Cincy to put their 3 best WRs on the field at all times. Palmer looked solid before the injury, and hopefully their offensive line holds up enough to allow him to get the ball down field. Don't allow his ankle injury to affect your view of him, and it might even push him down a round. Palmer, Ochocinco, and Henry (as a WR4, or a boom/bust WR3 if you don't mind the downside) are all recommended. Benson is a low upside RB3, and there's a chance Bernard Scott could overtake him sometime later in the year. Dede Dorsey is also making a case to be the 3rd down RB.
Cleveland Browns - I think it's only a matter of time before Brady Quinn is announced as the starter. He's looked much better, and Braylon Edwards will be better off for it despite him not having a big arm. Edwards has shown improvement and is still recommended in the 5th round. The big news here is that there's a rumor Jamal Lewis might not even make the team, although it would be curious as I doubt they have a hidden RB better than Lewis as a backup unless they feel Lewis would cause a problem for the team in that role. James Davis is making noise, as I've mentioned before, and I bet he swipes Lewis' job before the end of the season. He's a great RB5. Jerome Harrison would be an explosive passing game complement to Davis in this scenario.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Obviously Big Ben's injury is a non-issue after a great performance in preseason week 3. With Parker wearing down and Mendenhall not looking overly impressive, we could see more passing this year than usual from the Steelers. Expect Holmes to be the biggest beneficiary here, although I wouldn't reach for him before the 5th round. Big Ben is a highly recommended QB2. In the backfield I'd still rather own Mendenhall and avoid Parker. Sweed has stepped up and seized the 3rd WR role.
Houston Texans - The offense is looking good, and the goal line back battle is a mess. Brown had it the first two weeks, but Slaton scored from 4 yards out last weekend. Given Brown's injury history, it's hard to imagine him lasting 16 weeks, or even 5 for that matter, but this mess is a drain on Slaton's value. Schaub is a high risk/high reward QB1 who needs a solid QB2 behind him in your lineup. No injuries to mention here.
Indianapolis Colts - The offense is looking insane so far. Manning probably isn't going in the 3rd round anymore after what he's shown in the preseason. I love Reggie Wayne, and I think Dallas Clark will be a stud TE if he can stay healthy. Gonzalez has been a bit up and down, but he should see enough targets to land in the top 24 WRs this season. Donald Brown looks more explosive, but Addai will keep his starting role and earn more carries this year. Addai has a much better chance of staying healthy in a time-share, although I don't like him as a 4th round RB2.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD is going to see a huge workload this season. Rashad Jennings, despite a great summer, hasn't stood out in preseason action. Greg Jones isn't much of a threat. Garrard will post his usual numbers, and none of the WRs are really making an impression. This leads me to believe that Holt will be targeted a lot, but he has lost his big play ability, so he only makes for a decent WR3 at best given this. He'll be better in PPR leagues.
Tennessee Titans - Vince Young has turned in a couple good games, showing that he still has the ability to play at the NFL level after a lost 2008 season. He's been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of good play. This should make the Titans feel comfortable as Collins ages. Kenny Britt has been making waves, and with Nate Washington's injury, he'll have a chance to earn a starting job depending on how long Washington is out. Chris Johnson has struggled with his YPC, and with Mawae out due to an injury, it shows how important he is despite all the talent on that line. Hopefully he'll be ready by week 1. White continues to vulture goal line carries, so nothing has changed. CJ should be a solid RB1, but might not score as often as last year. Britt is a great WR5 speculatory pick, and Washington is a dangerous WR4 selection. Gage should be a solid WR3/4 pick for the season, although he's more of the possession guy.
Denver Broncos - Orton has looked bad more than good, but I'm not worried yet. This whole team is learning a new scheme and how to play with each other, plus Marshall hasn't been on the field yet. Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason, but I would count on him being on the field for week 1. He's a dicey WR2 pick, but if you can land him in the late 5th or somewhere in the 6th round, he's worth taking a shot at there. Scheffler, as expected, seems to be getting lost in the mix. He's a decent speculatory pick as a TE2, but he's probably going to miss Shanahan the most. Royal looks awesome, and he'll be targeted a lot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel is likely out at least for week 1 of the regular season, although since GM Pioli hails from the Belichick tree, it's hard to figure out exactly what's wrong. Rumor has a sprained MCL and ankle. Regardless, this offense scares me. Their offensive line looks awful. I'm starting to regret picking Dwayne Bowe, but they don't have anyone else to throw to. He will dominate targets and should post solid numbers, but I would avoid all other players except for possibly Jamaal Charles as a RB4/5.
Oakland Raiders - Russell is supposedly improving, but it's hard to do such when you have 2 rookies as your WRs, neither of which are particular impressive. The Raiders are set to open up the regular season with DHB and Louis Murphy as the starters, so you know they're going to run as much as any team in the league this season. With McFadden and Bush, and to a much lesser extent Fargas (if he's there week 1), they certainly have the talent to do so. I'm still hoping to see Bush pass Fargas on the depth chart as I feel he's a much better talent, and he pairs well with McFadden.
San Diego Chargers - The offense looks good, as expected. Rivers should turn in a solid season, although his TD will regress some. Vincent Jackson made an amazing one handed catch along the sideline against the Falcons when I watched the first half, and I think he's finally arrived. It's hard to make much of LT's preseason so far, although he didn't particularly impress anyone. I'm still taking Jackson, Gore, and Williams ahead of him. I'd only consider him against guys like Chris Johnson, Slaton, and others in the back end of round 1.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys - Romo is starting to concern me a bit, but he's not playing with Roy Williams. Honestly, Romo badly needs Williams to be a great downfield threat because there's nobody else on this team that can fulfill that role. Witten will be targeted heavily. The Cowboys will be at their best if they focus on the run with the great combination of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. I maintain my stance on Barber as a low end RB1, and Jones as a very good RB3.
New York Giants - Jacobs and Bradshaw look awesome so far. Just like Barber/Jones above, Jacobs should flirt with RB1 value while Bradshaw is a good RB3 and a steal as a RB4. Eli looks about the same, and only Hicks with his 144/2 production a couple days ago has stood out at the WR position. Hixon has been inconsistent, and I've seen Smith drop at least one big pass as well. They really need someone to step up here, and that person could be Nicks. He's a great WR5, and I regret taking Hixon over him in my draft.
Philadelphia Eagles - The only injury news here is All-Pro guard Shawn Andrews, who despite back problems is saying he'll be ready in week 1. With Peters also there, they could have a dominant offensive line if everyone is healthy. Trouble in QB paradise already? McNabb is already reportedly complaining about the Vick plays disrupting the offensive rhythm. He's going to have to get used to it as Vick wasn't signed to hold a clipboard. Westbrook is ready for week 1, but he's a very dicey RB1 who I'm suggesting to avoid. I expect Westbrook to post some big games with clunkers and a few missed games mixed in. The McCoy hype has died down a bit as the book on him so far is that he goes down too easy. He's definitely going to be involved in the offense, but he's not swiping a healthy Westbrook's job. Jackson remains a fine WR2 after an offseason full of praise. Celek has rebounded after a shoulder injury and is a great TE value.
Washington Redskins - Their line has done a surprisingly good job of protecting Jason Campbell so far, and if they keep it up, he could finally turn in the season they've been waiting for. The problem is still the WR opposite Santana Moss as neither Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly has truly stepped up. They'll continue to battle for snaps. Portis is an easy avoid this year...he's clearly wearing down and can't explode like he used to. He needs to be used like a workhorse for fantasy value, and that's not going to again for him.
Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler looked good yesterday night in the harshest of environments...returning to Denver. He heard boos all night, and started slow, but shrugged it off to pass for 144 yards and a TD in the first half. Forte, despite the low YPC so far, looks good, especially in the passing game. He'll catch plenty of passes with the Bears' mediocre WRs. Greg Olsen will also be targeted heavily and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving. Hester will get plenty of looks, but his progression as a WR will determine exactly what he does with them. Nobody else is worth thinking about right now.
Detroit Lions - Culpepper and Stafford have both played pretty well so far, which is encouraging for Calvin Johnson owners. They will continue to battle for the starting job, and it's hard to say who will win. Culpepper has a slight edge in performance so far, but you have to think the front office would like to see Stafford in there ASAP. Kevin Smith also looks solid and is still a highly recommended RB2 in the late3rd/early 4th round.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers looks awesome so far, and Jermichael Finley has been the talk of camp. He still struggles a bit while blocking, so that will keep Donald Lee as the starter for now, but he'll be on the field on most passing downs and have a few big weeks. He's a high upside TE2. I'd still steer clear of Ryan Grant as I don't believe in his talent despite his solid situation.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre supposedly has a cracked rib now, on top of playing with a slightly torn rotator cuff. You have to wonder if all this is going to be worth it for the Vikings. If Favre can manage to stay upright this season, he should post solid numbers with the weapons around him, but you have to worry about that ability at his age. Luckily for the Vikings skill position players, Rosenfels isn't much of a dropoff at this point, so draft them all as you normally would.
Atlanta Falcons - Much was made of Turner's first two preseason weeks, but please keep in mind he was facing Detroit and a banged-up St. Louis defenses. As I have mentioned in my draft guide, I am not recommending Turner this year. The combination of his 2008 workload, his lack of passing game value, and the increased strength of schedule for the 2009 Falcons has him overvalued by most fantasy outlets. Ryan looks very good and set to embark on a great 2nd season. Tony Gonzalez is starting to look overvalued as I don't think he's going to catch as many passes as people think he will. He's certainly going to help them block, and he's going to deter attention from Roddy White, but I'm wondering how much of a fantasy impact he'll really have this season. He's certainly going to post TE1 numbers, but is he really going to post top 3 TE numbers? I'm thinking no.
Carolina Panthers - Williams looks like a stud so far, and with Jonathan Stewart still nowhere to be found, Williams is a solid mid-1st round pick. I still think Stewart will make an impact, but after Williams season last year combined with Stewart's propensity to get dinged up, I would imagine the coaching staff isn't going to put him in as big of a role as they imagined. Steve Smith has already returned from his shoulder injury and looked just fine last week. I would draft anyone other than these 3 players, and I'd only take Stewart if my first 3 RBs were really solid.
New Orleans Saints - The offense looks magical once again, save Reggie Bush. Bush continues to be held out of action, presumably because of his balky knee. Pierre Thomas also has his own injured knee, but everything points to both being ready to go in week 1. I still highly recommend Thomas as a RB2 in the 3rd round, but not before then so you can take a stud WR first. I'm not drafting Bush, especially as an RB2, unless you're in a PPR league. Shockey looks healthy and should be a great value this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I originally liked Derrick Ward, but Caddy is looking good once again, and there's rumor of a 2-2-1 split between Ward, Graham, and Caddy. I didn't like Bryant as a WR2, but if his knee injury allows you to grab him as a WR3, I would consider it. Other than that, it's hard to know WTF is going to happen with this offense. I'd probably stay away from the whole thing.
Arizona Cardinals - As great as everyone on this team is when healthy, I'm going to avoid everyone except perhaps Chris Wells as a RB3 and Hightower as a RB5. Everyone on this team will produce, but at their current inflated values, I'm not tempted to get any of them. Warner is too injury prone to take that high, Fitz is the 1st receiver off the board and I don't think he'll be worth a 1st round pick this year, and Boldin is going as a WR1 despite his yearly injuries. I'd happily take Boldin as a WR2, but that's about it. Leinart is a very clever QB2/3 add at the end of your draft.
San Francisco 49ers - Crabtree continues to hold out and can be safely ignored in all redraft leagues. Gore is looking great by all accounts and is my favorite 1st round RB value this year. Shaun Hill has just about locked up the starting job, although he doesn't excite me. I'm still recommending Josh Morgan as a WR4, however. Vernon Davis is a solid speculatory TE2 add, but you're playing with fire if you make him your TE1 to start the year. It's entirely possible that it could pan out, but that's a bit risky for my taste. Coupling him with a Shockey, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller type talent could give you valuable trade bait later on.
Seattle Seahawks - With their offensive line a mess, I'm staying away from the lot of them. Their passing attack looks reasonable, but when you're relying on Julius Jones and a post-prime Edgerrin James to lead a supposed run-first attack, that's just bad news.
St. Louis Rams - The most impressive player so far is probably Laurent Robinson who has stepped up to win the starting WR job away from Keenan Burton across from Donnie Avery. With Henry Douglas down for the year, I wonder if the Falcons are regretting this trade. The Rams badly need their WRs to step up and make plays to help out Steven Jackson. Avery, despite the foot injury, looks ready to go in week 1. Bulger should be ready too, but we'll see how fast he heals.
AFC
Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens has reportedly returned to practice, and he blamed his toe injury on his shoes. I'm not wavering from my draft guide and recommending him as a 3rd/4th round WR. The injury doesn't change anything, but I don't see him posting borderline WR1 numbers anymore at his age in the Buffalo offense. His should score, but his receptions and yardage will suffer. This offense will sorely miss blindside tackle Jason Peters.
Miami Dolphins - Everyone is healthy, and Chad Pennington has solidified his starting role with a good preseason, while Chad Henne has been up and down. Brian Hartline has supposedly won the starting WR position, pushing Bess and Camarillo to battle for the slot WR duties, and I expect Bess to win out there as his skills are ideal for the position. Ginn is worth a shot, but I just don't see another impact player in this group.
New England Patriots - Brady suffered a minor shoulder injury after Haynesworth blasted him after a throw, and while he left the game, it's not considered serious. Brady looks to be back to form, and Moss should turn in another elite season. Don't let that shoulder injury affect your view of Brady...he'll be starting in week 1. The RB situation still looks like a mess, but if you can nab Maroney as an RB4/5, he's worth a shot as the most talented member of the group.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez has won the starting QB job, which shouldn't be surprising. Thomas Jones has struggled to run the ball, and Leon Washington has looked electric. Expect some combination of Jones, Washington, and Greene to start the year, with Washington having the highest upside and my highest recommended pick of the group. Avoid Jones. Cotchery remains a slightly undervalued WR3 with WR2 upside.
Baltimore Ravens - Despite my touting of Ray Rice as the possible goal line back, it appears as though Baltimore will use McGahee in that role for now. McGahee got the goal line carries in preseason week 3, but this might be a committee approach. Ray Rice easily remains the best option of the group here, and McClain is mostly a fullback now. Rice will lead the team in carries barring an injury, and he's also going to dominate 3rd down work as well. McGahee, if had as a late rounder, isn't bad either. I can't recommend anyone else on the team as Flacco has little to throw to, and the receivers are either old (Mason) or have constant injury problems (Clayton, Williams).
Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Henry keeps scoring, and he's certainly making a statement to start on the outside opposite Ochocinco. Coles is better suited for the slot when compared to Henry, and it would allow Cincy to put their 3 best WRs on the field at all times. Palmer looked solid before the injury, and hopefully their offensive line holds up enough to allow him to get the ball down field. Don't allow his ankle injury to affect your view of him, and it might even push him down a round. Palmer, Ochocinco, and Henry (as a WR4, or a boom/bust WR3 if you don't mind the downside) are all recommended. Benson is a low upside RB3, and there's a chance Bernard Scott could overtake him sometime later in the year. Dede Dorsey is also making a case to be the 3rd down RB.
Cleveland Browns - I think it's only a matter of time before Brady Quinn is announced as the starter. He's looked much better, and Braylon Edwards will be better off for it despite him not having a big arm. Edwards has shown improvement and is still recommended in the 5th round. The big news here is that there's a rumor Jamal Lewis might not even make the team, although it would be curious as I doubt they have a hidden RB better than Lewis as a backup unless they feel Lewis would cause a problem for the team in that role. James Davis is making noise, as I've mentioned before, and I bet he swipes Lewis' job before the end of the season. He's a great RB5. Jerome Harrison would be an explosive passing game complement to Davis in this scenario.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Obviously Big Ben's injury is a non-issue after a great performance in preseason week 3. With Parker wearing down and Mendenhall not looking overly impressive, we could see more passing this year than usual from the Steelers. Expect Holmes to be the biggest beneficiary here, although I wouldn't reach for him before the 5th round. Big Ben is a highly recommended QB2. In the backfield I'd still rather own Mendenhall and avoid Parker. Sweed has stepped up and seized the 3rd WR role.
Houston Texans - The offense is looking good, and the goal line back battle is a mess. Brown had it the first two weeks, but Slaton scored from 4 yards out last weekend. Given Brown's injury history, it's hard to imagine him lasting 16 weeks, or even 5 for that matter, but this mess is a drain on Slaton's value. Schaub is a high risk/high reward QB1 who needs a solid QB2 behind him in your lineup. No injuries to mention here.
Indianapolis Colts - The offense is looking insane so far. Manning probably isn't going in the 3rd round anymore after what he's shown in the preseason. I love Reggie Wayne, and I think Dallas Clark will be a stud TE if he can stay healthy. Gonzalez has been a bit up and down, but he should see enough targets to land in the top 24 WRs this season. Donald Brown looks more explosive, but Addai will keep his starting role and earn more carries this year. Addai has a much better chance of staying healthy in a time-share, although I don't like him as a 4th round RB2.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD is going to see a huge workload this season. Rashad Jennings, despite a great summer, hasn't stood out in preseason action. Greg Jones isn't much of a threat. Garrard will post his usual numbers, and none of the WRs are really making an impression. This leads me to believe that Holt will be targeted a lot, but he has lost his big play ability, so he only makes for a decent WR3 at best given this. He'll be better in PPR leagues.
Tennessee Titans - Vince Young has turned in a couple good games, showing that he still has the ability to play at the NFL level after a lost 2008 season. He's been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of good play. This should make the Titans feel comfortable as Collins ages. Kenny Britt has been making waves, and with Nate Washington's injury, he'll have a chance to earn a starting job depending on how long Washington is out. Chris Johnson has struggled with his YPC, and with Mawae out due to an injury, it shows how important he is despite all the talent on that line. Hopefully he'll be ready by week 1. White continues to vulture goal line carries, so nothing has changed. CJ should be a solid RB1, but might not score as often as last year. Britt is a great WR5 speculatory pick, and Washington is a dangerous WR4 selection. Gage should be a solid WR3/4 pick for the season, although he's more of the possession guy.
Denver Broncos - Orton has looked bad more than good, but I'm not worried yet. This whole team is learning a new scheme and how to play with each other, plus Marshall hasn't been on the field yet. Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason, but I would count on him being on the field for week 1. He's a dicey WR2 pick, but if you can land him in the late 5th or somewhere in the 6th round, he's worth taking a shot at there. Scheffler, as expected, seems to be getting lost in the mix. He's a decent speculatory pick as a TE2, but he's probably going to miss Shanahan the most. Royal looks awesome, and he'll be targeted a lot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel is likely out at least for week 1 of the regular season, although since GM Pioli hails from the Belichick tree, it's hard to figure out exactly what's wrong. Rumor has a sprained MCL and ankle. Regardless, this offense scares me. Their offensive line looks awful. I'm starting to regret picking Dwayne Bowe, but they don't have anyone else to throw to. He will dominate targets and should post solid numbers, but I would avoid all other players except for possibly Jamaal Charles as a RB4/5.
Oakland Raiders - Russell is supposedly improving, but it's hard to do such when you have 2 rookies as your WRs, neither of which are particular impressive. The Raiders are set to open up the regular season with DHB and Louis Murphy as the starters, so you know they're going to run as much as any team in the league this season. With McFadden and Bush, and to a much lesser extent Fargas (if he's there week 1), they certainly have the talent to do so. I'm still hoping to see Bush pass Fargas on the depth chart as I feel he's a much better talent, and he pairs well with McFadden.
San Diego Chargers - The offense looks good, as expected. Rivers should turn in a solid season, although his TD will regress some. Vincent Jackson made an amazing one handed catch along the sideline against the Falcons when I watched the first half, and I think he's finally arrived. It's hard to make much of LT's preseason so far, although he didn't particularly impress anyone. I'm still taking Jackson, Gore, and Williams ahead of him. I'd only consider him against guys like Chris Johnson, Slaton, and others in the back end of round 1.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys - Romo is starting to concern me a bit, but he's not playing with Roy Williams. Honestly, Romo badly needs Williams to be a great downfield threat because there's nobody else on this team that can fulfill that role. Witten will be targeted heavily. The Cowboys will be at their best if they focus on the run with the great combination of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. I maintain my stance on Barber as a low end RB1, and Jones as a very good RB3.
New York Giants - Jacobs and Bradshaw look awesome so far. Just like Barber/Jones above, Jacobs should flirt with RB1 value while Bradshaw is a good RB3 and a steal as a RB4. Eli looks about the same, and only Hicks with his 144/2 production a couple days ago has stood out at the WR position. Hixon has been inconsistent, and I've seen Smith drop at least one big pass as well. They really need someone to step up here, and that person could be Nicks. He's a great WR5, and I regret taking Hixon over him in my draft.
Philadelphia Eagles - The only injury news here is All-Pro guard Shawn Andrews, who despite back problems is saying he'll be ready in week 1. With Peters also there, they could have a dominant offensive line if everyone is healthy. Trouble in QB paradise already? McNabb is already reportedly complaining about the Vick plays disrupting the offensive rhythm. He's going to have to get used to it as Vick wasn't signed to hold a clipboard. Westbrook is ready for week 1, but he's a very dicey RB1 who I'm suggesting to avoid. I expect Westbrook to post some big games with clunkers and a few missed games mixed in. The McCoy hype has died down a bit as the book on him so far is that he goes down too easy. He's definitely going to be involved in the offense, but he's not swiping a healthy Westbrook's job. Jackson remains a fine WR2 after an offseason full of praise. Celek has rebounded after a shoulder injury and is a great TE value.
Washington Redskins - Their line has done a surprisingly good job of protecting Jason Campbell so far, and if they keep it up, he could finally turn in the season they've been waiting for. The problem is still the WR opposite Santana Moss as neither Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly has truly stepped up. They'll continue to battle for snaps. Portis is an easy avoid this year...he's clearly wearing down and can't explode like he used to. He needs to be used like a workhorse for fantasy value, and that's not going to again for him.
Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler looked good yesterday night in the harshest of environments...returning to Denver. He heard boos all night, and started slow, but shrugged it off to pass for 144 yards and a TD in the first half. Forte, despite the low YPC so far, looks good, especially in the passing game. He'll catch plenty of passes with the Bears' mediocre WRs. Greg Olsen will also be targeted heavily and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving. Hester will get plenty of looks, but his progression as a WR will determine exactly what he does with them. Nobody else is worth thinking about right now.
Detroit Lions - Culpepper and Stafford have both played pretty well so far, which is encouraging for Calvin Johnson owners. They will continue to battle for the starting job, and it's hard to say who will win. Culpepper has a slight edge in performance so far, but you have to think the front office would like to see Stafford in there ASAP. Kevin Smith also looks solid and is still a highly recommended RB2 in the late3rd/early 4th round.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers looks awesome so far, and Jermichael Finley has been the talk of camp. He still struggles a bit while blocking, so that will keep Donald Lee as the starter for now, but he'll be on the field on most passing downs and have a few big weeks. He's a high upside TE2. I'd still steer clear of Ryan Grant as I don't believe in his talent despite his solid situation.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre supposedly has a cracked rib now, on top of playing with a slightly torn rotator cuff. You have to wonder if all this is going to be worth it for the Vikings. If Favre can manage to stay upright this season, he should post solid numbers with the weapons around him, but you have to worry about that ability at his age. Luckily for the Vikings skill position players, Rosenfels isn't much of a dropoff at this point, so draft them all as you normally would.
Atlanta Falcons - Much was made of Turner's first two preseason weeks, but please keep in mind he was facing Detroit and a banged-up St. Louis defenses. As I have mentioned in my draft guide, I am not recommending Turner this year. The combination of his 2008 workload, his lack of passing game value, and the increased strength of schedule for the 2009 Falcons has him overvalued by most fantasy outlets. Ryan looks very good and set to embark on a great 2nd season. Tony Gonzalez is starting to look overvalued as I don't think he's going to catch as many passes as people think he will. He's certainly going to help them block, and he's going to deter attention from Roddy White, but I'm wondering how much of a fantasy impact he'll really have this season. He's certainly going to post TE1 numbers, but is he really going to post top 3 TE numbers? I'm thinking no.
Carolina Panthers - Williams looks like a stud so far, and with Jonathan Stewart still nowhere to be found, Williams is a solid mid-1st round pick. I still think Stewart will make an impact, but after Williams season last year combined with Stewart's propensity to get dinged up, I would imagine the coaching staff isn't going to put him in as big of a role as they imagined. Steve Smith has already returned from his shoulder injury and looked just fine last week. I would draft anyone other than these 3 players, and I'd only take Stewart if my first 3 RBs were really solid.
New Orleans Saints - The offense looks magical once again, save Reggie Bush. Bush continues to be held out of action, presumably because of his balky knee. Pierre Thomas also has his own injured knee, but everything points to both being ready to go in week 1. I still highly recommend Thomas as a RB2 in the 3rd round, but not before then so you can take a stud WR first. I'm not drafting Bush, especially as an RB2, unless you're in a PPR league. Shockey looks healthy and should be a great value this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I originally liked Derrick Ward, but Caddy is looking good once again, and there's rumor of a 2-2-1 split between Ward, Graham, and Caddy. I didn't like Bryant as a WR2, but if his knee injury allows you to grab him as a WR3, I would consider it. Other than that, it's hard to know WTF is going to happen with this offense. I'd probably stay away from the whole thing.
Arizona Cardinals - As great as everyone on this team is when healthy, I'm going to avoid everyone except perhaps Chris Wells as a RB3 and Hightower as a RB5. Everyone on this team will produce, but at their current inflated values, I'm not tempted to get any of them. Warner is too injury prone to take that high, Fitz is the 1st receiver off the board and I don't think he'll be worth a 1st round pick this year, and Boldin is going as a WR1 despite his yearly injuries. I'd happily take Boldin as a WR2, but that's about it. Leinart is a very clever QB2/3 add at the end of your draft.
San Francisco 49ers - Crabtree continues to hold out and can be safely ignored in all redraft leagues. Gore is looking great by all accounts and is my favorite 1st round RB value this year. Shaun Hill has just about locked up the starting job, although he doesn't excite me. I'm still recommending Josh Morgan as a WR4, however. Vernon Davis is a solid speculatory TE2 add, but you're playing with fire if you make him your TE1 to start the year. It's entirely possible that it could pan out, but that's a bit risky for my taste. Coupling him with a Shockey, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller type talent could give you valuable trade bait later on.
Seattle Seahawks - With their offensive line a mess, I'm staying away from the lot of them. Their passing attack looks reasonable, but when you're relying on Julius Jones and a post-prime Edgerrin James to lead a supposed run-first attack, that's just bad news.
St. Louis Rams - The most impressive player so far is probably Laurent Robinson who has stepped up to win the starting WR job away from Keenan Burton across from Donnie Avery. With Henry Douglas down for the year, I wonder if the Falcons are regretting this trade. The Rams badly need their WRs to step up and make plays to help out Steven Jackson. Avery, despite the foot injury, looks ready to go in week 1. Bulger should be ready too, but we'll see how fast he heals.
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