Our 2nd big trade of the NFL offseason as my Chicago Bears traded RB Thomas Jones to the New York Jets.
When I first heard about the compensation they received, which was trading Thomas Jones and their 2nd round pick (63rd overall) for the New York Jets 2nd round pick (37th overall), I was disappointed. I thought they could have done better by getting a stand alone draft choice instead of using Jones to move up.
However, upon second review of the deal, I'm pleased with the situation. Veteran RBs are hard to trade because they require both a draft choice in return along with a new contract. Thomas Jones will be 29 years old when the 2007 season starts, and while he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs as most 29 year old featured RBs, he still is getting to the age where RBs start to see a decline in their production. Instead of receiving a stand alone 3rd round pick, which was reportedly an option, they wanted to move up in the 2nd round instead. The Bears now possess the 31st and 37th overall picks, putting them in an advantageous position. They can either nab two potential starters with these picks, or they can use them to move up in the first round if someone falls that they covet. The Jets acquire a solid starting RB and only move down in the 2nd round. I think this trade is beneficial to both sides.
Fantasy Impact: Thomas Jones remains the same as he was a Bear the last several seasons, a solid RB2 selection. He won't see a lot more carries in New York, but without Benson there, he should remain the primary option on 1st and 2nd downs throughout the game. Jones excels at both catching the ball and blocking, but the Jets remain high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, and Washington will probably assume some of the role on 3rd downs that Jones had in Chicago. Washington remains intriguing enough to draft as a end-of-the-roster RB, but I don't know if he'd see the majority of the carries if Jones got hurt, dulling his upside.
Cedric Benson becomes a rock solid RB2. He won't be a factor in the passing game as he doesn't catch the ball and block as well as he should, so he'll never be an elite RB1, but he'll handle most of the carries and score most of the TDs. Some may be scared by his "injury history", but he was a workhorse through both high school and college at elite programs, and his two injuries in the pros have been freak knee injuries. He loves to run over people and is quicker to the outside than most expected him to be. Adrian Peterson will assume the backup RB position on the Bears and will handle 3rd down duties. He's a nice RB4, or a handcuff for Benson owners. He'd be productive if Benson ever went down.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Monday, March 5, 2007
Free Agency In Full Force
I tried to avoid posting here until there was some actual confirmed deals in NFL's free agency market. For those of us monitoring the NFL news to see who's going to sign where, there's a constant inundation of rumored visits, signings, and unfortunately erroneous reports of both. So, here's a lowdown of the fantasy impact so far:
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
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